 Welcome to Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 2nd of September with me, Patrick Mulley. Monday is the US Labor Day public holiday marking the unofficial end to summer, with traders back at their desks on Tuesday, when markets will get the August market manufacturing PMI final print, which is expected to have dropped to decade lows. With market watchers expecting the August ISM manufacturing data pointing to material softening in the growth pots. July construction spending is also likely to deteriorate from already weak levels in the coming months. Wednesday will see July trade balance with the deficit likely to remain elevated. Markets will also receive the Federal Reserve's beige book highlighting conditions across 12 key districts. Thursday will kickstart the employment readings with US August ADP employment change, where employment growth is thought to be decelerating, while Q2 productivity readings should remain supportive of robust growth. Cordurable goods orders likely to be soft again in July. August market services PMI is set to continue tracking below the estimates, with the ISM also looking to come under pressure as well. Friday's finale is the US August non-farm payrolls, with consensus pegged at 165,000, with job growth thought to be easing amid headwinds and uncertainty. Markets will also be paying close attention to average hourly earnings, where a base looks to be forming for hourly earnings growth. From a technical perspective, the dollar index has retested the pivotal 98-95 level, failed to close above it on Friday and now looking for the potential for a major double top to form in this area. We also note the significant momentum divergence that's occurred, potential triple divergence developing here. So if we can hold below the 98-90 and get a reversal pattern developed potentially on Monday or Tuesday, then I'd be looking at short positions, initially targeting trend line support down towards the 97-70 area. This initial support could then see a retest back up towards 98-40 and then I'd be looking for a second leg of downside to develop. However, key is going to be this prior highs at the 98-40. If we hold above here, then there is the potential for the market to take out the double top and test up towards the psychological 100 level. Whilst we're looking at the dollar, let's also take a quick look at gold. Gold looks to be potentially forming a consolidation pattern now. As we anticipated last week, we did move up to test that 15-50, 15-60 area, sellers have stepped in. Whilst this area holds, I'd be anticipating a move back down to test the base here at 14-80, which could then see another leg of corrective upside back up to test the 15-30 area, where once again I'd expect sellers to step in and target a move down towards this 14-50 pivotal support zone. In Canada, Wednesday's Bank of Canada policy decision will be the key data for the week. With the Bank of Canada expected to remain on hold, focus will be on the Governor's rhetoric, which may soften given the global headwinds. The Canadian dollar has been consolidating as anticipated from last week's review. We have held the 132-30 support zone and whilst we hold above here, there is the potential for prices to extend up to test the descending trend line resistance up towards 135. However, a failure to take out the current resistance at 133-40 would suggest that we likely see a breakdown below the trend line support and ultimately test down towards 131-50. In the Eurozone, Monday's August market manufacturing reading is expected to be weak, particularly in Germany. Wednesday we'll see Eurozone August market services PMI's. They have been resilient against the manufacturing backdrop. Friday we'll see the Q2 GDP third estimate, which will be eyed for expenditure detail. From a technical perspective, the Eurodollar duly broke down this week to test the long anticipated descending wedge trend line support down towards 109-50. I'll be watching price action very closely in this area over the coming days, as with the dollar index we have the potential for triple divergence to develop here. And I'll be looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, targeting a move up to test the descending trend line resistance initially now at 111-40. And he pulled back from here, I would hope would be supported in around the 110-30 area to set the potential for a more meaningful inverse head and shoulders pattern with the next leg of upside then targeting the 112. However, a failure below the 109-50 would be a particularly bearish development, opening a test down to 109 initially and then 108-50 in extension. Whilst we're in the Eurozone, let's take a look at the DAX. As anticipated last week, we held the 11,500 support and we did get that second leg of upside to test up towards the 12,000 level. This next bit of price action development is going to be pivotal. We will either hold this 12,000 resistance and then set a top here to actually test down back towards the base at 11,280. The key area to watch as we potentially fade against this resistance will be the 11,600 area because if I step in here, we likely see a third leg up to the upside testing up towards the pivotal 12,200 level. In the UK, August market manufacturing is expected to be weak, driven by domestic and global headwinds which are likely to weigh on activity. Tuesday's UK August market services economic uncertainty is still likely to be weighed on with a reduction in business activity. Friday we'll see the UK August Halifax house prices. After a brief recovery last month, the market is once again expected to have cooled. Sterling Dollar held the 123,20 resistance highlighted in last week's review. As we hold here now, there is the potential that we retest down towards the current cycle lows at 120,20 and likely break here to test the long-awaited 119,14 area which is the bigger ABCD pattern objective that I have highlighted in my last few sessions. However, what we want to watch is the current level around this 12,140 to 12,160. If buyers can support price here, then we likely get a second leg of upside to test towards the 12,450 area. Over in Asia, data is particularly limited this week with really just Tuesday's Asian PMIs of note for Japan specifically. From a technical perspective, the dollar yen has held the 105,60 support zone discussed last week. As it does, there's a potential now for another leg of upside to test initially up towards 10,720 and then the descending trend line resistance at 10,810. However, if we can't break above the 10,670 resistance zone, then we likely see prices roll over to retest the price by lows down towards 10,450. Down under in Australia, Tuesday's RBA policy decision is likely to be on hold their market expecting a pause after cuts in June and July with market watchers expecting a further round of easing potentially to resume in October. Wednesday's Australian Q2 GDP conditions are likely to remain soft driven by private demand, contracting and consumer spending also subdued. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar has held the pivotal 67,20 on a closing basis as it does there is the potential to set a base here to trade back up towards the 68,50 level where we likely see sellers step back in. If they do not offer decent offers at this level, then we are likely to test up higher towards the 69 area where I once again be on the lookout for potential bearish reversal patterns. However, if we fail to break the 68,40 then we can anticipate and move down to retest the current spike lows at the 66,80 level and likely down towards 66 in extension. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing August, September 2nd.