 Hello everyone. Welcome to another international capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we will talk about the agitation in China and Iran. Most unexpected, but at the same time it is part of history. It is not unusual for dictators to fall or ideologies to be abandoned at the most unexpected times. It is normally happens when the most powerful people are found guilty of various things imagined and real. So in China, it is a matter of days after Xi Jinping had declared himself president for life. He had made a visit to Bali where the leaders of the G20 were vying with each other to meet him. He dealt with them like an emperor. He even criticized President, the Prime Minister of Canada publicly for revealing some conversation he had with him. And generally, he was really like an emperor there. But when he came back, he discovered that there is a movement against him brewing there. It was not of course a political movement, but despair on the part of many people that the zero COVID policy of China had created considerable problems and trouble for the people. When you hear zero COVID policy, it sounds good. The best is to have a zero COVID country. But it came at a time when most of the other countries were recovering from it. And China, where it all began, came to have more and more cases of COVID-19. And the way he dealt with it was in a very harsh manner. He declared lockdowns. He closed down apartments. He stopped people from traveling from one place to the other. And the restrictions were more serious than it was when the pandemic first erupted. So people started expressing concern about this, particularly since the rest of the world was recovering and why China was engaged in this. And there was some suspicion that this was being done deliberately in order to keep the community, keep the people in check at a time when he has declared himself a Mao-like leader for China for life. So this suspicion was probably behind the very strong protests that took place in China, in many provinces, particularly in Beijing as well as Shanghai, where the biggest restrictions were imposed on the people because of the pandemic. This surprised President Xi Jinping because he had expected people to generally accept these controls for their own interests. So we saw, witnessed a situation where we found that the pent-up emotions against the dictatorship started coming out. This appeared strange because it was all done by good intentions as it was announced. But people saw very many dangers in that and they thought that their freedom was being restricted and their freedom to choose what they want to do with themselves being eroded. This is a reminder of the situation in the United States where people even refused to take vaccinations or wearing masks etc. because of individual freedom. So the general concept in democracy is that the freedom is unassailable and people have the right even to commit suicide. And so many people did not take vaccines, did not use masks, did not restrain themselves in the West. And that is what perhaps was a contrast for the Chinese. They thought that if that much of freedom is available in the rest of the world, why is it that this has happened in China? So what started off as a spark against this became so widespread that it looked as though the whole situation was being challenged and Xi Jinping's own authority was being questioned. He ignored it initially but later he discovered that the best way was to relax some of the restrictions. So that the bitterness of the anger of the people would be controlled. This happens in many societies when a dictator rules for several years and suddenly some small incident creates a problem. In China protests are not extraordinary, not unusual. The biggest protest was in 1989 when the Tiananmen Square protest took place and it was put down with a heavy hand by the Communist administration. Many people were killed and it looked like the beginning of a big revolution in China. But the authorities imposed very many restrictions and killed many people and eventually put down that revolution. So it looked like something like that but fortunately it did not go to that extent and President Xi Jinping started lifting the restrictions in order that his own position can be secured. A similar thing happened in Iran also. In Iran after the Islamic revolution, this is the first time that an open revolution has broken out on the question of wearing a hijab. A 22 year old girl was arrested for not wearing a hijab properly and in jail she was probably tortured and she died in prison. Of course the police says that she had some other illness which resulted in her death. But this is brought about in uprising in Iran against so-called morality police which is very strong in Iran. They have not relented on the question of hijab and they are really trying to control the mobs and to restrain them from any kind of activity. So both these have the same kind of results. At a time when two regimes which are at this most powerful moment, Iran had just elected a new president who is a hotline. And so it could happen in such cases that the new revolution could take place and the governments could change. This has happened in history. But again new dictators come, new regimes come, new ideologies come and history repeats itself. The situation in China and Iran have been brought to some kind of, shall we say lighter because the situation is becoming normal. But the way the whole thing exploded appeared to be a warning to both the Chinese and Iranian regimes. And this can happen at any time and therefore there is some concern in both these countries that their regimes may be in danger. As I said earlier, Xi Jinping had come back from his trip abroad as a powerful leader recognized by the world as such. And he has started equating himself with the great helmsman Mao Zedong and everything was in place for him. And then the situation got worse and it appeared as though it will go beyond control. His program could have been, if there was no emotional side to it, this program could have been accepted by the people. But the way it was handled with an authoritarianism with very strict rules and regulations and therefore it looked as though another Tiananmen Square problem might arise. Four years ago, Xi Jinping had himself warned his people that we should be aware of black swans, this is the word he used. He said we should all be aware of black swans and also we should be careful about grey animals. And this was something that he said in a very philosophical manner indicating that there could be dangers in the society and you should be careful about those. So now it looks that the black swan had just arrived and grey rhinos as they called them are some of the problems that you should be aware of, he said. And that appeared to have happened. So there's a big challenge to his authority and at the moment Xi Jinping is struggling very hard to get out of the situation. The first signs of protests came on October 13th when an activist disguised as a construction worker put up some posters in different parts of the city. In these posters it was said that the various measures which have been imposed by the government had dangers and he asked the people to protest and resist these changes. Because immediately he was arrested and removed and nobody knows where he is because one of the posters said that what we need is not a leader but the protection of the interests of the people. And he came to be known, this particular man was came to be known as the bridge man. Just like the person who sparked of the Kenanmen Square, the problems was called the tank man. So the one who started the spark in Kenanmen Square in 1989 was called the tank man. And so this man who put up these posters on the bridges was called the bridge man. So immediately this spread like wildfire in the country and spread to various protests and as it normally happens it went to educational institutions, universities, etc. So the protest was because of the concern that they had was their individual freedom was being challenged. So immediately the government started relaxing many of the restrictions but at the same time it did not have much effect because COVID cases increased during that period. So in a sense it was justified that these restrictions were imposed because when it was relaxed there was more infections, there were more instructions in the country. Another serious incident took place on November 24th when an apartment building caught fire and people could not escape because of the very many restrictions and many passages were closed because of the lockdown and the people could not escape when the fire took place. We don't know how the fire took place but in the process about 10 people died. And this was attributed to the restrictions on COVID because there was no way for people to escape. So this also added fuel to the fire and all this was attributed to the cruelty of the administration. And people started remembering what were the things that Xi Jinping had done since 2012 against personal liberties and we established himself as a dictator. And this spread all over. There were also restrictions about travel of people and it had become very difficult. After the zero COVID policy was imposed it became difficult for people to get passports or to travel abroad. This was particularly painful for many people who wanted to go to Qatar to see the football matches. Many thousands of people who wanted to go could not go and even it was not possible for them to assemble in places to watch the game. But this was a past time in many places even in India we know that instead of sitting and watching television at home people assemble in different areas and watch it on a giant screen for better effect and also better the spirit of the people being so alive. So this also created some kind of resentment and this also created some dissatisfaction and all this was because of the protests against the COVID controls. Another incident that took place was in universities they started, the students started holding up blank white papers like it was done long ago in the Soviet Union. Soviet Union at a demonstration students held up this white paper without anything written on it. Say that we all know the problem therefore we don't need to write anything everybody knows that we are miserable. So this is what happened many years ago in Russia in the Soviet Union and this was copied and this also created quite a stir and the students in Shanghai and other cities challenged the police and created havoc. Interesting thing is that this particular demonstration or protests have no leadership as such these are all spontaneous and there is no person is identified as the person who exorted them to do so except the brinch man. So this was even more surprising that without any directive or even the internet not being very effective the anger of the people increased and people started moving around and protesting against the government. These are all the things that actually happened but the analysts in China watchers all around the world and watching as to how this will end whether it will end or whether it would eventually lead to the fall of Xi Jinping himself. But so far the indications are that the government has done in terms of relaxing these measures and since Xi Jinping had placed all his favorite people in the right places everywhere he was able to control this effectively. So it may not become a revolutionary move and this will be brought under control at least for the time being but the prediction that Xi Jinping had made that black swans and grey rhinos might arise and we should be careful of them actually happened and it gave him an opportunity to control it and also take measures and therefore it is quite possible that he will continue and the problem will be resolved. This is not as serious as what happened in Tiananmen Square and I mean did not use much force and they basically control the crowds and did not shoot at them or anything of that kind. So we can take it that the situation will be under control very soon even though it will be unexpected can create more difficulties. The protests in Iran have also been very serious on September 16th someone called Maasa Amini a 20-year-old girl died in Willys Castle after she was arrested for wearing hijab in the wrong way not properly and also appearing in revealing jeans in public places. So when this girl died in jail there was protest and there was suggestion that she must have been killed but the authorities have said that no she had some illness of some kind but protest grew against this young people particularly women you know went out on the streets all over the country and this was the first time after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 that such an organized protest was a protest took place. Although they were very peaceful police very harsh with them and in schools and universities and even oil establishments very serious protest marches took place. What hurt Iran Iranian government more than anything else during these protests was that the Iranian football team in Qatar when the football match was opened refused to sing the Iranian national anthem and also shouted slogans taken the government. This being done in outside the country and at a very important event it brought a lot of shame to the Iranian government and in the protests something like according to western sources about 420 people were killed and about 20 policemen also lost their lives. In Europe also they spread wherever Iranian people of Iranian origin were present and there was even accusation that this whole movement has been generated by the United States and Israel. There have been a difference of opinion about making hijab compulsory it happened in 1983 at that time itself there were various protest marches then the new government which came in place in 2021 Ibrahim Raisi the present president actually imposed more controls. On proper clothing for women and that is what erupted when this girl died. Another reason of course is the financial difficulties into which Iran has fallen because of the sanctions against Iran. How President Trump left the arms deal which are signed between Europe and Iran and it was sanctions against them as a result the economy has become worse and worse. Iran has been trying to sign a new nuclear deal this is being discussed in Vienna but there has not been much progress. And therefore the new government has not been able to find a meeting ground with the Europeans and the Americans. It is expected that if such an agreement is reached and finalized sanctions will be lifted and things might get better. Again like in China there is really no threat to the Islamic government at this point because last time the regime changed because the army changed its policy the army turned against the government that is why the Islamic Revolution won in 1979. But this time armies with the government and the new president and therefore there is really no danger of the government itself falling as the army has indicated their support for the government. There were reports that the moral police was being abandoned or abolished. So there was much jubilation among the people that this was done but the Iranian government has not yet confirmed that. Maybe it was just a rumor but people say that the morality police is not seen on the streets in the last few days. So that may be a concession that they are making in order to bring the situation in the country. So there is uncertainty. The protest had not ended. There has been no relaxation on the rules relating to women's clothings but anything it could happen and may become a flyer up may be possible. But anyway in both these cases China and Iran although there is some similarity or the suddenness of the protests and the serious nosy allegation all amounting to expression of freedom which both Chinese government and Iranian government do not recognize. So individual freedom and liberty are questioned and at the moment these movements do not have the kind of strength to become revolutions and the governments both in China and Iran have been able to suppress them. But the message is clear because writing on the wall as they say is clear that both these regimes may come under pressure or even small things because what they are doing to the people is to suppress their freedom. And objection to that might come about because of some small incidents what is being called the black swans and the gray rhinos. So they are already visible. They have been suppressed but it's possible that such leaders may come again and that's a warning for both the Chinese government as well as the Iranian administration. Thank you.