 Hey, what's up guys, this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list. Hope everybody had a wonderful weekend. I just had a pretty amazing snowboarder trip just got back so I'm filming this kind of late. I apologize that this comes out late but I'm still gonna try to give you that quality that y'all deserve. So make sure y'all trade safe this week but let's go ahead and get it to our first setup. So we're looking at Apple here and you can see we're looking at pretty much three big tech behind this here. We're gonna Apple, Microsoft and Google but for now let's start with Apple so we see we have a clear breakout on the daily. I'm also reclaiming Juvenilow over here. So this is June 2020 low and you can see it's popping over here. We also got the breakout. If we go down to the four hour looks even cleaner. Got a nice volume pushing to the upside. My guess is that Apple will be able to come up to the supply so you shoot for about $133 a share or so. So I'm gonna be looking at calls on that. If it does want to show that I can do more past supply obviously it'll hold longer than that. Usually I don't even take the time to guess if it's gonna hold. I'll just sell it supply and go ahead and take that profit. One thing you do have gone against you. You can see the MACD is not crossed to the upside but on spy and QQQ the daily MACD is crossing which is indicating a large cap shift. So that could be given an early signal for positive momentum. We'll have to see. Right now this breakout is fresh so I think you could still be a little bit early for a short-term breakout to the upside. They don't report earnings till February. Microsoft does report I think maybe a little bit later in January. I'm not mistaken. I'm sorry not in January. Yeah in January I'm sorry. Anyways let's go ahead and get into number two. So this is Microsoft. You can see we do have a strong drop base rally demand zone. See if I can get this tool here. So you get a drop base rally demand zone. Sequence opens up with a drop. Creates a base rallies to the upside. Make your base candle zone and then you can see it's coming back now to test it for the first time. Had a very nice reaction. You can see that their earnings is in January 24th. So coming up in a couple weeks this will be after 120 OPEX which is options expiration. What I'd really like to see on Microsoft here is just pretty much a pre earnings run-up. Maybe come back up and fill this gap eventually that it made. Obviously your stop loss would need to be under demand zone low maximum. But we just want to see continuation directly off this zone and follow through with this reaction candle to demand. So this is a really nice drop base rally zone. This is your first test so that could be indicating that it could be a really solid reversal right off the zone. And you could see I mean if it did want to come up to the fill the gap obviously you know to fill the gap and probably find resistance about there. Another situation is that it can find resistance before the gap right at the you know right at the gap below. So there's just two areas to keep in mind. But otherwise I feel like this could be a pretty good setup. And you saw Apple breaking out as well. You'll see that spy and QQQ also kind of given short term bullish signals. And I think that could be because these you know big tech behemoths are setting up pretty nicely. So we're going to then go into number two. So this is Google. Similar to Microsoft we have another drop base rally drop base rally demand zone pulling in. This one is a little bit different though because it did have a couple more tests first. So I had test one. Test number two. This would be test three on the zone. Which makes it a little bit riskier because if you know the liquidity did dry up and it didn't just have its first test quick reaction. And you can see it fail a couple times. This could be indicating that the zone is not as strong. But I feel like it's still got a nice reaction. You get a nice little push up on volume on Friday. MACD is positive for now. Although it hasn't really gotten like that nice nice curl up yet. It's still showing you know that it could be indicating you know early reversal here. Price to target you probably looking forward to get up to this resistance at $91. That's probably about as high as I could put you for now. And you can see I mean Q1 earnings for 23. It looks like Tuesday, January 31st. So a little bit after Microsoft. And then Apple obviously in February. So I guess this is kind of like just looking for a run up you know up into the earnings report. And you'll see that pattern a lot with a lot of them. Like if we went to Microsoft here back again you can see there's a pre earnings run up here for selling off. There's a little pre earnings run up here before selling off. There's a small pop here. Pre earnings. And then there was a nice little rally. Maybe just like a couple days before rallying after earnings. But I mean you can see here's another one. There's a pattern to run up in the you know prior few weeks to earnings. It will go ahead and you know catch the momentum. So I'm open with these big tech names. You know we'll start seeing that and maybe start seeing a little rebalance to the upside. Assuming that the indexes want to stay in a good signal as well. Because it's not just about individual tickers. You know you do want to pay attention to the indexes as well. So yeah Google looking pretty nice here. I want to see a run up to $91 as a max price target. And yeah all kind of a similar gist. Apple is breaking out of the downtrend. You can see Microsoft and Google are not breakout trades. They are counter trend reversal trades off demand. But either way we're looking at calls on Apple. We're looking at calls on Microsoft. And we're looking at calls on Google as well. So this could be good. It's been a while since I had you know three big tech names you know as my focus. So it could be interesting and even the indexes are showing that that could support the thesis. So next we'll go into XLF. So I was a little hesitant on adding this one just because this breakout candle is so big right. But we do have a pretty clear runway here up to $35.90 as a first price target. And then a second one figures through that at you know $36.00. And MACD is crossing to the upside still. The only thing is with a you know bullish candle this big you might get a couple days you know of consolidation first and like you know go back and forth make a base or whatever then try to go up. It might not just be instant. So maybe you know just look out on Monday make sure you know it's holding proper levels you know maybe enter on a dip instead of just buying straight into it. I mean if we went into the short term time frames you can see the 15 minute RSI is pretty overbought. If we go to the one hour it's pretty overbought. So this may have a small dip first. So you do want to look for maybe look for a dip first on this and then you know maybe it can run up into the resistance areas. Because there's really only this one little supply here. So this is a drop based drop supply zone. It is something to worry about. So you probably you know maybe take profit there if you're catching a day trade. Swing trade obviously this wouldn't give the most risk risk to reward unless you went for the 36 high. If you're just doing a day trade the supply would be a good target. Of course if you get that dip or if you see something support the Friday high get taken out you know anything like that would be good for a move up to supply. So yeah pretty clean breakout volume is pretty mediocre but MACD is crossing up. You just have that one little small supply right there. We had a huge reaction so that's why I would say you probably want to take profit there on a day trade if it did get up there. Maybe even if you pull in the supply here and give a nice reversal candle on the daily you could look at puts short term. Just because this reversal right here and this imbalance is so gnarly after testing it it could be worth a watch. So yeah focus on that's calls. We're gonna have four call setups this week. Obviously I'm open to changing that. Y'all know I'll trade whatever direction doesn't really matter. But next I did keep one potential put trade just because you know the bear in me says you know this is not over and just because these bullish setups are setting up doesn't mean anything. So next we'll go into the SQ. So this is black technologies black ink whatever you want to call it. So this is originally square by the way you know they held like Bitcoin and you know they do processing payments and stuff like that. So with SQ here I would say the downtrend is pretty clear. This would only be two tests. So you got test one test two which means you could have an opportunity at the third test for rejection. That would give you know a good put trade. If it did want to break out though the only thing is if you did look at calls in the breakout it would be going straight into supply where it could see resistance. It would have to clear the supply to get up to this supply up in the you know 75s. So essentially what I did since it hasn't tapped you know price for price yet it hasn't tapped the downtrend line I went ahead and added an alert so y'all know how we do it you just right click the line you just you know hit add alert and we could just put you know downtrend line. So we're waiting for that to tap. I do still have some alerts active from last week too like EEM I mean you could probably delete that one just because the head and shoulders it looks like it got invalidated. EEM had a huge bounce off the neckline area so head and shoulders is not good on that one anymore. HD it did break for a brief second but didn't get good confirmation. So I've kept that one just in case the head and shoulders does want to play out but otherwise I mean I would leave that you know leave that alert maybe keep looking for HD to break that neckline maybe and you'll have a put trade still you know from last week that hasn't triggered yet. So same thing with this we're going to shut the alert we're going to wait if it does want to trigger this week we can you know maybe potentially trade it if it doesn't you know it'll carry over into next week maybe so more than likely this is going to get tested though I mean look at this big bullish candle it's really close it's more likely going to give you a rejection around the area even if it doesn't tap it directly it still could I'll show you a rejection in the general area and that will give you a confirmation for puts. So yeah SQ looks decent and like I said if it does want to break out calls could be risky just because it's heading straight into supply although you know Square does like to squeeze the shorts short term so yeah so Apple looking at calls Microsoft looking at calls Google looking at calls you got your three big tech behemoths you got XLF little breakout trade you might want to wait for a dip on that one just because the breakout candle was so big and then SQ obviously we're going to be waiting for a confirmed rejection first before taking anything so just like last week you know we had two setups they were waiting for alerts on they didn't trigger so we didn't take them so sometimes it happens it's okay that's why we have others to fall back on if you know those aren't working and also you can just trade the spy and QQQ I just day trade a lot so like I'll day trade the spy you know it usually I'll kind of like trade against my swing trade so like if I have you know long calls or something I'll still trade spy puts uh and you know it'll offset some of the losses if you know in the wrong direction and um you know those day trade profits you know do build up and it can help you kind of put out some fires if you know maybe you're wrong on a swing trade or um maybe you're you're still waiting for it to play out. You can still build up some profits even though you're waiting. So yeah, next, we'll go into the spy. Pretty much had a range week except for on Friday. And why was that? It was because we had non-farm payrolls and we also had unemployment data come out. We also had something showing that wage growth was slowing. So really interesting day on Friday. I think what another thing that triggered it was the ISM manufacturing data. It came in showing a contraction. We'll even go to the 15 minute. I think this has been the ISM data came out probably like 10 o'clock. Got this huge bullish candle. And then after that, I mean, the sky was the limit. So maybe the ISM data played a part too. And not even just the non-farm payrolls. You know, you can't really, I guess you can't really pinpoint the market to only one specific reason why it did something. So we did have multiple factors. We had non-farm payrolls. We had unemployment data. We had some wage data showing slowing growth. And then we also had the ISM manufacturing showing a little bit of contraction. So there's your four reasons right there. Maybe that just shows that people are optimistic that the Fed is indeed, their policy is working and inflation is coming down. We do have CPI this week coming up. If we go to the economic calendar, we do have CPI on Thursday, January 12th. So mark it in your calendar, it's gonna be crazy. It was our first CPI report of 23 and it really could dictate the pace starting out this year. So yeah, so spy here, we do have the demand zone. Same thing as the last two weeks. You can see we've been tapping in it. But finally it started to create sort of like a little wedge, right? And we were highlighting this wedge all week in the chat and the discord. It finally broke out. So it looks pretty good for bulls. One thing that the bulls do need is to get over this 390-14, which is really important. So 390-14 is your November support. We'll go type it in real quick. So you got November support. Obviously it would need follow through breaking over, make a base on previous support and then maybe head up into the 200 EMA. You also do have MACD crossing to the upside. The RSI is staying above 40. I'm sure the KDJ is also curled. I don't have the KDJ on this week just because we're in a chopped range and the KDJ kept giving false signals. Usually we want the KDJ for nice trends. So maybe we can put it back on when this thing starts to maybe catch some upside if it wants to. But anyways, so we want to see a Gila with 390 obviously. Bulls, I'm sorry, bears that you do have an argument. Maybe it will reject previous support and make new resistance of 390. Maybe head back down, who knows. If you do see some major selling at 390, obviously that could give you that signal that it's not clearing and it's really just back testing previous support and could come back down. But for now, I would say this bear flag that people were speculating on is pretty much invalidated. That's no good anymore. So throw that out. You do have a panic breakout here. So I would say short term, this is like a bullish to be honest. And you know the market, it'll fake you out. It'll take everything you think you know and throw it in your face and totally light it on fire. So you just want to be careful just because it broke out doesn't mean, it's not a guarantee, but this is looking a little bit more bullish. So if you're a bearish, I would be careful with that. But otherwise, yeah. So this 390-14 is your level of focus and that's really it. If it does want to reclaim 390-14, your next price target would be the 200 EMA on the daily. Next, we're looking at QQQ. So how 259 support very cleanly. You do have a kind of like a little weak demand zone right here. This would be like a drop-based rally I guess, but you didn't really see much of a drop-based rally follow through. But either way, it doesn't really matter. You do have support here at 359 I'm sorry, 259. Now, the only thing I don't like about this is that QQQ is heading straight into supply. So you do have a drop-based drop supply zone. I could even draw it out for you. So it's just, you know, opens the sequence opens up a strong selling, creates a base and then drops more to the downside. And that's your follow through. So you got a complete sequence there. And now it's coming up for a test. This could see some short-term resistance. So for the QQQ, I would wanna see a get-through supply. Looking at the Apple, the Microsoft and the Google, there's pretty good counter-trend reversals off the mango in there. So maybe, you know, that could help it gas it up a little bit. As well as the 10-year yields coming down that helped a lot. I think the 10-year yields closed down maybe almost 5% on Friday. So that could help tech catch a rally. There's gonna be a lot of people trying to catch back up and maybe try to get, you know, a better start to their year, especially with tech after getting slammed all year. Maybe there is some buyers starting to show up here. But otherwise on the QQQ specifically, minus the, you know, the ones we covered, I feel like there really isn't anything specific. Spy, you have a good argument to like look at calls and stuff because you have that pen and breakout. I guess if we went to the four hour here and you, you know, drew a trend line here, you do have a short-term breakout. So that could be good, you know, we'll have to see. If it does, I mean, keep in mind it does go straight into supply. So personally, me, I wouldn't take the QQQ, I wouldn't take calls straight into this because just because of that supply, I'd want to wait for it to get over supply and then be able to look at calls. And you know, that could cost me some money, but I mean, there's other calls that I'm looking at. So I'm not really focused on the QQQ just because that supply is in the way. And I would like to catch some upside assuming we get the right confirmation. So yeah. And you also have this downtrend line. You can see you got test one, test two, test three. It did break. If it comes back up that, you know, that back test could act as resistance just like that as well as supply. So just like what I was saying last week, I believe you just want to see QQQ pretty much, you know, reclaim the trend line show that, you know, it doesn't even matter that we broke it and totally invalidate. And, you know, it could squeeze and maybe the supply wouldn't even matter than either because it's reclaiming over the trend line. So yeah, that's QQQ, nothing specific. Watch out for supply and trend line. Next, we'll go into the IWM. So this is the IWM, this is the small mid caps. It looks like it's similar to SPY. You know, we were focusing on this pennant. SF Bears had a good argument for rejecting on Tuesday when we opened and they could maybe trade puts and it did that for about a day. Then we got really sensitive to the FOMC minutes and you could see, I mean, we had like some rallies and some dips and some rallies and some dips. And then finally, when Friday's data came out, farm payrolls, unemployment, et cetera, we were finally able to break out of that pennant. So pretty much the bears were done for after that. After putting up a really good fight in this range, by the way, it's not me discrediting anybody. I even got some put trades in and it's pretty nice. The range was fun while it lasted. I'm hoping that we're finally gonna get out of it. I would like to see a little bit more bigger moves. So with the IWM here, it is breaking out similar to Spy, breaking out of the pennant. You really don't have any supply in the way here. This is all sell and bounce. You got a huge red candle, huge red candle, huge red candle, no bullish based candles indicating supply. So that could give maybe a room, get some room up to the 200 EMA. So that probably puts you about like 184 or something. As long as it gets over this 50 EMA, you can see that it's still lighting up red. That means we haven't gotten over it yet. If we do get over it on the daily, you do have a great argument for that 184 at the 200 EMA. I would put you as high as 187, but we are still under the moving averages. So you kind of have to use those as price targets. Assuming that resistance is all the way up here, it could just be better to go off the moving averages just because it does respect them. And you can see when I got over the 50 here, nice shot up, got over the 50 again, nice little shoot up, got over the 50, hit the 200, strong resistance at 200, strong resistance at 200, strong resistance at 200. So yeah, I mean, it's respecting them. So we want to see you get over the 50, head into the 200, just like that. But yeah, so you do have the pen and breakout supporting that. And pretty much made a new support at 170. You can see a strong wick here, another reversal here. It's a nice little 170 buildup. Never hit 168, so there was support here, it never hit, but it was able to make support early. Oh, as well as we reclaimed that 174.11. So that was a huge level. This area right here, let me circle it for you. So this area right here is a pretty big support. We recovered it the last few weeks. We were kind of just chopping around it, but once you broke it, you get quick flushes or once it broke over, you get nice pops to the upside and you can see that just happened all week. So once it got under, you got a big flush. Once it got back over, you can see the mumbins starting to pick back up. Finally, we are over 174.11 and we're breaking out of the pen and we broke out of this 176.80 peak right here. So yeah, IWM looks good. I'd say this looks bullish. I look for a move up into the 200 EMA maximum. Next, we'll go into the VIX. So the VIX essentially pretty much stayed in a similar area as the Friday close. So this was the Friday close. It gapped up pretty heavy on Tuesday, but finally on Friday, it closed down almost 6%, which is great. It still hasn't hit my 1994 level that I've been focusing on. It hasn't came up to test the 2022-23 average close. And you'll see in the data here, I am just carrying over. Pretty much the 2022 average close into 2023. So since we started raising rates in 2022 and volatility was at a completely different level than it's ever been, we're gonna go ahead and carry this average into next year. So we do have our weekly new numbers here. So you got on the first trading day of 23, you got 22.89. On the fourth, it was 22 flat. On the fifth, 22.45. On the sixth, 21.14. So all that we're doing is just carrying it over, which gives us a average of 25.62. And that's for 2022 and the new 2023 numbers. And you'll see, I mean, I did start working on a, I pretty much started working on a 2023 solo as well, just so I can track it, but we don't have enough for that yet. It doesn't even matter. Unless we get like 20 days of closes, that's not really gonna give you anything. To be honest, so yeah, I just wanted to show you that we are carrying over that average into the new year. So yeah, you can see it's pulling into this trend line. I would say that the bears you have an argument that this could hold up, but the way that the indexes are looking, they are breaking out. So this does put the VIX, maybe, this does put the VIX a little bit lower. And I'm guessing it's gonna test that 19. You also have the dollar, you can see it's already getting slammed on Sunday night. So that could make equities rally, but we'll get into that next. So yeah, right now I'm guessing it's gonna fall into the 19s, upper 19s, maybe 20 flat. And honestly, if it got even lower than that to this peak or around it, I'd probably start looking at put swings on the spot. Just because, I mean, that's showing puts are super cheap, especially when the 22 average close for the VIX is all the way up here, this is pretty much measuring 30 days of implied volatility. And this is pretty much your average, anything over, you're overpaying on a premium, anything under, you can look at as a discount. Obviously, you can see it's still mid range, so I would like to maybe wait to grab puts until it actually hits like a key level. So that'd be 1994 or 1895 or 19 flat, something like that. So right now we're gonna see this trendline break if you're bullish, if you're bearish, obviously you have an argument that could curl up here. Still trading all the under moving averages, you can see Tuesday hit the 50 EMA, rejected straight off, filled this little gap. Yeah, but otherwise, I mean, volatility is pretty much stuck in a range for now, with a great close on Friday indicating bullish momentum, just because it got slammed. So yeah, same focus levels as before, this time there's just a new trendline to watch. So it could curl up about here. If it breaks, that could give it velocity to the downside, thus resulting in velocity to the upside for stocks, we'll have to see. So yeah, you could also even maybe draw one right here. Not that you really need to chart the VIX or anything because it's not tradable other than the options. Obviously it's not an underlying. It doesn't have a tradable underlying, you're just trading the options or whatever. But most people are just using this for an indicator, but still, I mean, it does follow, the indicator's pretty good. It follows the moving averages good. You see it hold up at trendlines good. You see it hold up at key levels really good, regardless. And that could just be based off algorithms and also if you didn't know, the VIX is just made up of SPX options. So the SPX options could also play a role. Once it gets to a peak, once algorithms get to a peak, they might start changing the SPX options in their favor to where it'll start to curl up or break down at the support level. So next, we're going to the DXY. So this is the Dollar Index, US Dollar. Last week, we were just focused on the 103.44 support. It did hold up there massively, had a huge rally. And then ran into the 200 EMA. Obviously, that's been also been a level of focus for us. As I said, if you're a bearish, you would need it to get over the 200 EMA, make a base off there to go higher. It was not able to do that. You can see it made support off the 200 here, made support off the 200 here. Once it finally got under the 200, big velocity to the downside, came back up to test 200 again, more downside, created some support. And this is where we were at last week. So we closed down here. Last Friday, this is where we opened up Tuesday with a 1.15% to the upside. So a huge day for the bears. Big day for the currency bulls. Huge day for equity bears. Cause this, I mean, that's a pretty big move. So I mean, I'm sure it spooked a lot of people. Let's see what it was on that Tuesday. So that Tuesday, it did have about a half a percent down, but it did go all the way down to 3.77. So I do remember that day being pretty bearish. And also the dollar was indicating a pretty bearish movement, but we just stay in the range. So it doesn't really matter at the end of the day. But yeah, same level of focus this week, this one on 344. If you're bullish on stocks, you want to see it get under that. We'll even remove this. I'll show you the same level we looked at last week. So we looked at this 2020 COVID high at 102.99. You could just say 103 flat. That's going to need to hold up if you're bearish. If you're bullish, you want to see it get under that. Cause otherwise you could see it, you know, curl up, make a base or if the flush is under, that could be really good for stocks. So this is a huge level to be honest. I really feel like this is a big level. And if it gets under, it could be good for stocks. If it continues to curl up and show its resilience, then it's not going to be good for stocks. So that 103 level is obviously still in focus with a 103-44 short term that we just, pretty much that I just deleted so I can make the chart cleaner. I'll read at it again. It's the same level as last week. Yeah, 103-40s. So you want to see the dollar get under that. And yeah, especially if you want to see a continued rally. And also you want to see the VIX, you know, following suit selling off with the dollar. That's, and yields too. You want to see the 10 year yields going down a little bit lower indicating, you know, that people aren't as scared. And that'll also bring bonds a little bit higher. But I feel like the bond rallies have been pretty good for stocks lately, depending on, you know, the sentiment. Is it seem like it's a flight to safety bid in the bonds? Or does it seem like it's just, just because, you know, rates are coming down and you know, people are optimistic that, you know, stocks are rallying with bonds. Anyways, I hope y'all enjoyed this video. I'm gonna go ahead and get it chopped up, recorded. I love you guys. Make sure to like, comment, and subscribe to our extra YouTube channel and trade safe.