 From Xtrades back to you with another weekly trade ideas list and also just an overall technical analysis video. If you're tuning in for the first time, we go over a couple individual tickers, we go over economic data for the week. I've been adding a little mix in going over a seasonality chart and then we also go over the indexes and pretty much just the technicals behind those. First we're going to get into the economic calendar here. This week we actually do have a lot more data than the previous week. Last week we did have a couple data sets but the most important thing was Nvidia earnings of course and then pretty much the Jackson Hole speech which ended up being pretty neutral on Friday. Market kind of brushed it off and we actually did have a pretty good rally throughout the day. I feel like the markets were expecting maybe a little bit more hawkish talk from Fed Powell and we didn't really get that so markets did pretty good on Friday even after selling off very very hard the day after Nvidia earnings probably the worst day in months I think since March or so just the awful awful sell off day and it was just straight sell programs all day so it was very very oversold very very quickly that could also play a role in why we bounced on Friday. So for Monday here August 20th we're looking at nothing for data but then Tuesday we do have the Joltz job openings this can definitely move the market and then we also have consumer confidence. Wednesday we do have the ADP employment we also have the GDP revision we have advanced US trade balance in goods advanced retail inventories advanced wholesale inventories and pending home sales so I would say the ADP employment the GDP and also the pending home sales are probably the most potential to move the market and that's just going off what I've seen in the past and Thursday we do have personal income we have personal spending we also have the PCE index core PCE PCE year over year core PCE year over year this is honestly the Fed's preferred inflation gauge I actually prefer this over CPI if you watched my videos before I've explained that in the past they prefer this over the CPI so I can definitely move the market and then Friday most important day we have the non-farm payrolls we also have unemployment rate US hourly wages ISM manufacturing and construction spending so the non-farm payrolls is pretty much the biggest data set of the week I would say that this is the most important and then probably second would be the PCE but people are really tuned into the labor market and I would say the non-farm payrolls usually moves us the most it's only because the PCE comes after the CPI so the CPI drops and then the PCE comes a couple weeks after so inflation data is almost like baked into the price and that's why PCE doesn't really move it as much but it does have potential to move it but when it comes to the non-farm payrolls this can definitely move the market I mean I would say anywhere from half a percent to probably one percent on the indexes it just depends you know how extreme the reading is so it's for the economic calendar pretty data stacked week especially Thursday and Friday so Thursday and Friday definitely going to move the market I can kind of show you a quick seasonality chart here too so I just selected the 28th which is Monday up until just before the big drop historically happens and that's going to be from the 28th up until the 17th I just want to show you we do kind of enter a chop period here but there is an upthrust towards the beginning of September but for this week if we went exactly this week if we went from 28th to the first which is Friday you can see that we do average a negative 0.28 percent return so it's nothing crazy there is a little small drop here so historically the odds to the upside are not in our favor but I do have a couple long trades that I'm looking at just because they're at support but I just want to show you the seasonality chart real quick and you can see it doesn't get too bad until after you know the halfway through September this can be about the 18th or so halfway point is when it starts to get really big to the downside historically obviously it doesn't have to pan out but this is 25 years worth of data pretty much just implemented into a seasonality chart so you can see the big drop here that's going to be about halfway you know through September so I just want to show you that real quick and then the almanac you can see Monday there's really really nothing but then Tuesday August 3rd to last trading day S&P of 19 years in a row 2003 through 2021 so this is a historically bullish day which is interesting and you can see the probabilities here this is the Dow S&P NASDAQ you got an 85.7 you got 90.5 for the S&P and 81.0 for the NASDAQ so probabilities are pretty good for that day and then August next to last trading day S&P down 17 of the last 26 years and you can see the probabilities Dow S&P NASDAQ pretty low NASDAQ is actually a little bit higher and these are probabilities pretty much showing the chance of rising and then Thursday last trading day in August S&P up 13 of the last 22 years and then first trading day in September S&P down 9 of last 14 so a lot of a lot of ups and downs historically we'll have to see how that goes but that just kind of goes in sync here with the seasonality chart there's a lot of you know chop kind of just up and down and you know the market might be trying to you know pretty much wait for a read and wait for a good signal before you know makes a trend because right now the the daily chart on S&P is actually not that great the the daily candles are aren't really flashing any signals or anything and we'll go over that you know in a little bit but it's going to show you that so that's the seasonality chart and the almanac that we went over so now we'll go into the individual tickers I do only have three this week I had four but I took the other one off just because I didn't I feel like it wasn't really you know up to par with what I want in my list but you know I could be wrong it was general motors that was the fourth one I had but I took it off our first one here this is UPS you can see we do have major support here at about 166 or so had a pretty nice reaction off of that this is also a big demand zone all the way from 2022 that it's been reacting and bouncing off prior and it bounced you know around May early June here and it's pretty much back to that same zone and I feel like this could catch a short-term bounce at least it looks like this is all sell in balance pretty much just really nothing you could call this little base candle here a little supply candle so that could be a little resistance but overall it looks pretty oversold here the slow stochastic is crossing up so I'm looking for upside on this a potential bounce play and UPS is kind of more of like a value trade like people kind of view as like a safety play and the correlation with the S&P is a little bit different I mean it's not like directly following the S&P it's had you know green days when S&P is red and it's also you know had red days when S&P is green so it's not a 100% correlation type of play and I feel like it's got a mind of its own and even if the market's going down or you know just like the seasonality chart shows us we have a little dip or anything on the S&P I feel like this could still catch a little bounce just because people might flock to it as a safety play or a value trade so for price targets obviously there's really not much resistance or anything you could probably look at this little wick right here at about 172.16 you added the moving averages you can see the nine EMAs right here it would need to get over that obviously so when you're trading under the nine and 21 EMA it's usually a pretty good idea to use them as price targets if you're going counter trend and you are going counter trend if you're trending below these so this is technically in a downtrend just because we're under the nine and 21 combo even if you drew a downtrend line it would still you know kind of be within a downtrend so smart to use the moving averages as some sort of price target if you're you know entering below or anything like that they can see the first area at the nine it's going to be about 170 it's going to need to get over that and then there's also 21 right here at about 174.50 it'll need to get over that as well you know to break the cycle here you can probably just look at those as three price targets so you got your nine EMA at about 170 that's going to need to get over that about 172.16 which is this little wick high and then also the 21 which is going to be about 174 currently but obviously that's going to change as price is moving moving averages pretty much just adjust after each daily bar if you're looking at it on the one day time frame if you're looking at on the 15 minute time frame the moving average is just going to adjust after each 15 minute bar etc so it looks pretty good for calls here i'm going to be looking at calls on it risk off obviously probably you know below 166 that's a short term risk off if you wanted a more cushioned risk off area it's probably going to be under 164 so and that's the demand zone low but there is you know more supports here i just feel like options if they got under 164 that's going to start killing the premium so it might be wise to use you know 166 or 164 as your risk off or stop loss just because you know you're trading options and any change from you know being in the money to being going back out of the money pretty much going to mess with your deltas it's all you're also pretty much playing against theta which is time decay and that's going to expire more and more you know as you get closer to your expiration date it's good to use you know tight stops relatively tight stops with options if you're going 30 plus days out you could probably use 164 if you're doing anything shorter definitely use 166 so that's for UPS here looking at calls price targets your first one 90ma 172 and then the 21 all right next we're going into fcx so you can see fcx has a pretty nice demand zone here if you didn't know fcx is actually tied to gold and also copper most of their business is copper but then they do have another percentage of gold as well so this kind of does correlate with the copper futures chart and also with a regular gold futures chart as well they kind of mix together but this is essentially a metals play so with metals plays it's usually pretty reliant on the US dollar you obviously want to see the US dollar losing value for metals to start going up and vice versa if you want to see metals go down you want to see the dollar go up so lately obviously the US dollar has been getting stronger and stronger it broke out we go over every week breaking over major levels and gold specifically has been having a hard time and you can see now we're finally getting into a demand zone here on fcx it's a drop base rally demand zone it's a pretty good demand zone i mean this is a pretty hard selling that led to a big buy imbalance so this area is worth watching for a bounce if it can curl up here obviously that could take you up to supply this is a drop based drop supply zone and that'd be your first price target if it could get up there so if it did get up there obviously it's kind of going to make a head and shoulders pattern if you guys tune in last week we actually had pltr and a similar pattern to this i was looking for a bounce up to pretty much its shoulder area or somewhere close to the first shoulder it did exactly that and rejected right off of it so that's why this is this is the highest i can see it and if you tuned in last week and you also tuned in into the video where we had netflix you know exactly why this is the highest we can see it for right now because we just don't know if it's going to make that shoulder and with netflix and pltr they both made a shoulder and then went back down so when you see these patterns play over and over and over you just know or at least you can get a strong feeling that that's going to happen and with pltr and netflix they both happen so same thing for fcx here this is the highest i could see it if it can get up there just because you have no idea what it's going to do if it makes the shoulder comes back down it'll just come back down to the demand zone you'll wish you took profit up here so you might as well keep conservative price targets and just adjust after each daily bar if you're swing trading or adjust in real time if you're day trading so that shoulder pretty much just correlates with this area as well this little 4075 area you can see there's a rejection here and also rejection here kind of active to support right here active to support right here active as a breakdown level right here so this 4075 just aligns perfectly with this supply candle and that's why that'll probably be the overall price target if it can get up there and bounce but this is a nice demand zone obviously we'll need to see the dollar come down a little bit more and that's definitely a possibility because it's coming up to a pretty big resistance if i'm not mistaken and it could reject you know at the 104s so we'll see and even a regular gold chart looks pretty oversold as well i think GLD chart i was looking at was also holding support that kind of goes with you know fcx maybe bottoming out here obviously they're they're tied to copper too so i probably need to look at a copper chart the copper futures but i mean metals overall they kind of have a similar chart they kind of go hand in hand together so fcx here looking at cause maximum i can see it in the early 40s that'll make the shoulder release attempt here and then maybe i'll try to come back down after that but we'd have to see how it reacts to supply if it can get up there so fcx looking at calls all right and last but not least for our individual tickers we're looking at oxy here ticker symbol oxy this is a strictly an energy play and you can see it's breaking its trend line here so that's what caught my eye the most i'm a pretty big trend line trader i like to look at trend lines especially on the daily chart they're most reliable you see you got a test one test two test three failing right here wasn't able to hold up and you can see it's actually back tested it a couple times right here back tested also back tested right here so touch the line directly obviously with these wicks not the prettiest right it's not screaming downside just yet because you got buyers pushing it back up at about the 60 80s level or the 61s so about 60 80 to 61 buyers keep showing up forming these wicks showing that they're still by pressure going up into the rest of the session for each daily bar so what we need to see is that zone breaking so we need to see it get under 684 there's obviously a pretty big support here at 60 flat or 60 or three specifically another level at about 58 97 so need to get under 60 84 what we'll do we'll add an alert just right click the line after you add it and we'll name it breakdown hit create and simple as that and then that'll be waiting for us so it'll need to break under that and then you'll want to look for like a 30 minute bar at least maybe like a 15 minute close under the 60 84 I prefer to use a 30 minute or one hour to see a true breakdown but we'll have to see so the only reason why we want to see this breakdown first is just because of these wicks that's why I don't really trust this breakdown just yet with these types of wicks you can easily see a push up back to the upside that's where that's why we want to see these lows at 60 84 get taken out and that can start taking you to your first support here at 60 and then also the 58 97 and then you know if I can get under that area there's a pretty big flush zone right here you probably call this a little demand zone as well so that probably would be the max I could see it if it was able to break under these three levels it'd probably you know come down to about here and try to curl up about there but you know these can also be curl up levels as well so you need to watch those very carefully just because you got a big reaction candle here you got a pretty nice buy imbalance here and you know they could try to prop it back up at these lows just based off of you know past lows and past experience with price action it looks like they would try to you know maybe try to hold it up about there so you'd want to see you know one day close under 60 84 and then a one day close under 60 03 and then a one day close under 58 97 and that would kind of take you down to the demand zone overall so actually here looking at puts but like I said set that alert wait for 60 84 to get taken out and that could take you a little bit lower obviously projection would go invalid if it broke back over the trend line it probably just go back to square one and start trying to go back up again and also these types of plays are just going to follow the crude oil futures so keep a close eye on those oil and energy overall is definitely being you know kind of silently screaming back up which is understandable because kind of starting to push into that recession theme again you got yields going crazy bonds overall going crazy got us dollar going crazy and lots of times you'll see that bid and energy when all those are going crazy as well so it's kind of just going hand in hand so that's why you got to be careful wait for the 60 84 breakdown before trying to short energy all right next we're going into the indexes so the first one here we're looking at the spx smp 500 spy whatever you want to call it ended up switching to the spx after trading views spy chart one day had a messed up candle that wasn't correct the high and low just wasn't right so i started going to the spx just because that one candle to throw off if you're trying to chart so i've been using the spx for the past couple weeks works pretty good so last week we're looking at this demand zone here you can see is a drop base rally demand zone it's the one we covered last week we saw this reaction candle here on the 18th of friday i was expecting a bounce in the market and especially was looking for 4 450 to get tested as long as we closed over this 4385 which is this support that we covered last week we want to see a one day close over that in order to fill this area up the selling balance and get to supply and the previous back test levels we covered at 4 450 so it did exactly that we got our clothes over the 4385 on monday had a little dip into it and then held that support and literally just filled the whole selling balance perfectly and hit our price target within a week which is crazy because this 4 450 zone i wasn't expecting it to get tested in one week i just wasn't expecting it to hit that fast like i said if you keep your expectations low in the stock market sometimes you'll get surprised and it feels that much better when your price target's hit and your analysis was correct when your expectations are low and you won't get you know as disappointed if you're wrong and you just keep your expectations low because the market does have a randomness factor to it so there's no reason to be upset or you know let it bother you because you know the market's just the market you know it's not against you it's not here to hurt you it's not here to you know make you look stupid so yeah our last week our analysis was great and it worked perfectly got exactly what we were looking for thursday was when the tide shifted uh nvidia had earnings and also it was pretty much just jitters going into jackson hole which was on friday drum pile speech and ended up closing down 1.35 percent but look where it reacted and rejected right off our supply and also our 4 450's back test area that we've been covering i show you on the 15 minute here you can see perfect rejection on thursday right at the supply in the 4 450's just like you know i was expecting and then also 4385 held the support really nicely so thursday i actually had to try to buy the dip on the nasdaq it was tipping much lower much faster and overall it was just down more so i figured i'd try to you know go for a bounce play i just got very oversold very fast so i tried to go countertrend and i ended up being wrong ended up taking some losses that day so wasn't my best week you know trading or anything by any means you know we had some good ones it's a bad ones but thursday i did take a couple losses which sucks but if i would have stuck to my original analysis looking for resistance at our supply at our resistance and just traded the spx instead of the nasdaq you know even though their analysis was similar this one was on point so would have been nice to catch this to the downside i unfortunately didn't but you know good for you if you did yeah you're good to see the 4385 here on tuesday just it's great support and this is great resistance so we're just going to go into next week with the same outlook keep these same levels as long as we're holding over the 4385 i feel like this big thursday sale in balance candle this big red one can fill back up and head back up to our regular 4 450's resistance area so this week i feel like it won't get up to the 4 450 as fast as it did last week just because our big data stats aren't till the end of the week so i'll have to see how thursday and friday goes but overall i feel like we can work our way back up to the supply in 4 450's despite you know the fact that the seasonality is showing a little dip we are still over the 4385 we're also still over demand and overall you know it's still holding structure pretty good if we started breaking under 4385 and closing under that i would change you know change my tone a little bit and probably look for a flush back down to demand but right now it's holding so as long as we open over this level on monday the 4385 i feel good about continuing to bounce upward but like i said i just feel like it won't get up there as fast as last week last week it happened in a couple days we just don't have those type of events until thursday or friday so maybe they'll try to front run it and you know run it up into the data similar to what we saw last week but i feel like we had a little bit more to be excited about last week and just kind of get that front run up into jackson hole front run up into nvidia earnings etc and this week i feel like this candle just kind of threw us off a little bit you know this kind of does throw the structure off a little bit and people are kind of a little bit more worried that you know they can get rugged like this and you know one day so it kind of does you know bring some fear a little bit and kind of some uncertainty into this but either way vix you know closed down pretty low still holding structure it looks pretty good for a bounce and hopefully we can end up hitting our same target that we were looking at prior i just don't really have a timeline for it uh same thing as last week you know i didn't have a timeline for this either i just felt like this price target was going to hit you know maybe within a few weeks maybe within a week i just don't put a timeline on the market i just let it do its thing day by day so spx here looking pretty good for a potential move back up to four four fifties over time all right next we're going into the nazak or the qqq so last week we were focused on this demand zone here we were looking for a bounce up at least up into 363 40s because this previous support we did that in one day so monday ripped up into our 363 40 and actually closed over it and once we got the clothes over that it had a similar fate to spx filled up this area and also hit its previous back test level resistance which is at the 370s and we were looking for you know that to happen as well as long as we got over the 363 40s so analysis was good on qqq as well all we needed was that you know dip below obviously it looked a little scary but then once we closed back within the demand zone on this friday candle at about 358 or so that's the close this is the low at about 357 60 so once we reclaim that it's pretty much a straight shot and you know pretty good probability that we could bounce back up at least up into 363 and this week you can see we're still over it briefly we closed at 364 so we are briefly over that level we're still inside the demand this is a drop-based rally demand zone so this zone has been working pretty good it even ripped off of it on friday pulled directly into it had a nice you know green shoot up so this demand zone is very good people are buying at this area and we're also still closing over structure we're still holding structure overall so i feel like we could see a bounce again maybe fill the cell and bounce candle back upward i'm not sure about how fast it would do it like i said on spx i don't really just expect it to do that within a week it's pretty rare that it does something like that and you know with data coming out thursday and friday we may not see a huge move until after that and people start pricing in whatever comes out you know like i said there could be front running people kind of front ran last week we front ran up into invidia earnings we front ran up into jackson hole and then that's kind of when people started to derisk once we got closer to the event so obviously that can still happen we could you know run up monday monday tuesday wednesday and then derisk at the same thing as we saw last week but you know just keep your expectations low this is a pretty big red candle this could lead people just a tad bit shaky and a little bit more reluctant to enter but either way still holding structure so you know if you got some cahones and you have good risk management and can still try to buy the dips i did on friday and it worked out for me despite me taking a loss on thursday i didn't let that you know mess me up too much like a couple losses that day trying to buy the dip and then still stuck to my plan the next day still trying at our demand zone made about 25 percent or something on friday so didn't shake me too bad and i'll probably go with the same plan again this week you know just looking for balances as long as we're holding over the 363 40 structure still holding demand maybe if we even dip inside of this i would still be willing to you know give it a try and you know you do want other signals as well like the vixx you want the vixx going lower dxy you know going lower you want other things supporting your thesis that the market will go up you don't want to just buy the dip just based off levels that you can of course and it works but it is good to keep in mind other things especially with the bond yields going crazy you want to watch just bonds in general vixx dollar all that good stuff so qqq here looking pretty good for a balance backup hopefully you can fill up this sell imbalance this will eventually fail i'm guessing it usually always does it's kind of like a gap right we we kind of fill up that unavoidable area pretty fast and it's kind of like a liquidity zone and eventually it can fill back up and like i said gaps will fill just about 80 percent of the time i believe that's the percentage maybe a little bit less but the selling balance candles like this is kind of like a gap as well just because we go down so fast eventually it gets bought back up and you can see i mean these three selling balance candles right here fill back up very fast so the market just kind of works like that and you you know you try to sell out once you get into supply candles you look for the big green candles those are the areas you kind of want to start looking to take profit out because with demand you're looking for red candles so you're looking for the red day that led to buy imbalance that's your demand and then supply you're looking for your green day that led to your sell imbalance and that's your supply so these green candles can be viewed as base candles for supply that's kind of why we fill back up the reds and then we start seeing resistance at the greens and then same thing with demand just inverse so qqq here looking pretty good for a bounce as long as we hold over 363 40s in demand i'd feel pretty good about a bounce back up obviously if we start going under that and we go under about 357 50s that takes you straight down to the 354 70s low which is this low right here and if that doesn't hold up that's a big breaker structure that takes you a little bit lower so but right right now you know we're still holding over it so i'm not too bearish vicks relatively low dollars starting to get a little bit scary but we are coming up to resistance we'll go over that in a little bit so looking for a bounce i feel pretty good about the market not you know going down too much at least until halfway through september and once you get to that halfway point that's when the market historically starts getting very very weak so you want to be careful there maybe pick up some hedges buy some puts protect your portfolio if you're a long-term investor if you're a trader might be wise to look at some puts throughout that time all right next we're going into the iwm which had a totally different fate than the spx and the qqq you can see it really didn't bounce as much as the others last week we were looking for a move up into 189 24 or at least the 189 area and like i said you can't put a you know like a timeline on the market the market's just going to do what it does and you can see we did not hit the 189s last week or within a week but overall we're still holding our drop base rally demand zone that we covered last week we have a nice wick off the zone as well even had a pretty nice green day on wednesday so it did bounce off the demand we were looking at might have just had to stick to day trades or short term trades on but it did have a nice reaction to it and then eventually just came down just a little overall though really nice wick this shows that buyers pushed it back up and maybe we can see a bounce so i'm looking for the same thing just a move up to 189s or so and the reason for that is because that's this previous resistance they're just using you know past price points as price targets and you just don't want to put a timeline on it because you know the market can do anything just you know adjust as each daily bar gets closed if you're day trading just adjust in real time so 189 it's not just going to hit in a day or anything you know you got to give it a week you got to give it two weeks sometimes you got to give it a little bit longer but as long as your structure is holding there's a chance it's going to bounce back up and hit that price target reason why it wasn't really able to do anything last week i believe it's just a overall weakness in banks in the financial sector that's probably why i didn't really do as well as the spx and the qqq did have a small run up but like i said you know it did wick down to a new low on friday but but it did get bought back up relatively quick and closed up about half a percent so iwm i'm looking for a bounce still up to 189s as long as the structure is holding as long as these demands are holding looks pretty good for a bounce back up obviously if it starts breaking under the second demand zone which is this area from over here it's under 178 that's where trouble starts to come in and it can get scary so gotta be careful under that but for right now it looks like people can still show up buyers might still try to show up and overall this wick i feel like it looks pretty good for a push up and it could take you up to 180 nons so we'll see all right next we're going into the vix so last week we were focused on that what is that 1830s rejection and i said this red candle looked pretty good to take us below 17s we wanted to see it close under 17 to take us to 1553 and that would take the s&p higher it was able to do that and then right at thursday we tapped 1550s and literally just a huge huge candle and that's when the the cell pressure came in big downside vix was up almost eight percent that day and then rejected 17 again and then came back down to 1553 so these two candles are just very bipolar i could even show you on the 15 minute time frame here so i'll show you the extremes you could see tuesday we were briefly over the 17 mark then eventually came below it wednesday rejected off 17 very aggressively this is when the market bounced very heavily we even gapped down on thursday within the selling pretty much just picked up very massively right at the open and held up 1553 so anything you see green is an extreme level i've marked and anything red is just kind of like a just a regular resistance point but you could see why the green marks are your extremes you got a really nice hold up here at 1553 just straight ripped off of it and you got very aggressive downside once you get under 17 and also just overall pretty strong rejections to the 17s area you can see friday there's kind of a fake out at the 17 right we got a 15 minute close over 17 but then that was instantly invalidated with this red candle closed back under and that pretty much set the tone for the rest of the day so your first initial breakout conferred bar isn't always law it's not always something you want to abide by sometimes you need to wait for confirmation especially with an event like jackson hole this little break out could get invalidated very quickly and it did literally the candle right after closed back under 17s and that took us lower and then i actually tried to hold up at 1553 again on friday there's actually a little dip towards the end of the day so very accurate levels it's the same levels we've been covering for weeks and like i said i have the extremes marked and green and then regulars just marked in red obviously 1553 has been one of our extreme levels once we get over it we have very hard shoot-ups so we get below it pretty aggressive selling in the vix likewise with 17 you got a strong wick strong rejections strong rejections even a strong move over it and then you're regularly red i only have at 1831 because of these two little small rejection areas that's where this little area originated from but it ended up being a very strong rejection level at 1831 as we saw last friday and then 20 is just self-explanatory if you track the vix you know 20 it's just an extreme pretty much always once the vix starts getting over 20 that's when people start to get really scared and it's also a pretty big resistance point as well as you see all these arrows over here get an arrow right here strong rejections at 20 so i just wanted to explain the levels a little bit for this week we need to see a close under 1553 if i can close under that that takes you to your 2021 low which actually held the support here also held the support here once it broke over that here pretty nice shoot-up and then once i got over 15 that's or 1550 that's when it really picks up and it takes you into 17s we need to see the close under the 1553 we'll probably try to maybe back test it on the shorter term time frames and then fall two of the 1473 kind of like what we saw on this 17 back tested 17 hard rejection likewise on wednesday you can see it wicked up into 17 sold off so maybe we see something like that if we can close under 1553 or maybe let's just you know straight flush down into it but you know nothing ever just goes straight up or down all the time and then if it can get under 1473 you do have one more 2021 low from two years ago at 1410 if it can break under both of those the 2021 lows it's pretty much a straight shot to 1273 and that's your most recent lows from june and also your most recent low from july one of your double bottom support and people say you know it's pointless to chart the vix but you can see it's not and you know these levels that we've been covering for weeks just proves it and i've showed you on the shorter term time frames even today how how it reacted to 17 and 1550s just perfectly and they're also just you know velocity zones so if it gets over or under them it goes crazy as well so it's not just support or resistance they're also kind of like breakout and break down levels and also just overall you know velocity zones that you want to keep an eye on so that's for the vix you want to see that move under 1553 i would like to see that so i can see the market go higher if it starts you know holding this up though at 1553 and you start seeing aggressive bids and you know hard upside on the vix that's where you want to you know kind of be a little bit more skeptical and maybe don't you know trade calls yet because that could just take it straight up to 17 as we saw uh thursday held up 1553 it went straight up so just gotta be careful look for the break on 1553 that's a great signal to go lower for the vix and that would take the market higher otherwise you know if you want to see the market go lower you're just going to want to see 1553 hold also see a break over 17 and just kind of go from there but you know 17 is going to be your focus if you're bearish i'm personally you know with the spx and the qqq holding structure i feel like they look fine to bounce to maybe fill up the sale and balance candle like i showed you you know but anything could happen but if you're bearish you'll see the market go down 17 is your focus you want to see a close back over that and you want to see you know aggressive moves over that as well and that'll just take you to 1831 again but those are your you know two upside levels and then you got 1553 and 1473 is your two downsides you just need to close under 1553 to take you to the next one all right and last but not least we're going into the dxy or the us dollar and last week we were focused on that 103 50s i'm just waiting for it to load here so we were focused on the 103 50s i wanted to see a rejection in this in order to take the market higher it did reject on tuesday and it came all the way down to 103 which is our 2020 covid peak and just like the vix chart the 2020 covid peak is kind of my extreme level you know i'm always looking for breaks over or breaks under on it and also it's pretty good support as well and has been for a while and you can see once we dip down on tuesday you can see the wake on this bar right here it just straight ripped off of it so we really need to see that close under 103 so we want to see the rejection and the close under 103 it was not able to do that the market still went up so that's good but you know the dxy did kind of invalidate the move down once it held 103 support and then eventually it closed over 103 50s and once you get over 103 50s and close over that that takes you straight to 104 70s as we see right here it topped out at 104 40s so it's very close and right now it's kind of made range so i don't really know what to expect here obviously it got close enough to this to maybe expect a rejection but you got slow stochastic still crossed up here we have the moving averages we're over all of them so we're over the nine we're over the 21 we're over the 50 and we're over the 200 so your dark blue is your 200 EMA it's kind of your longer term moving average we had a fake out over that back here so you know anything could happen but the only difference is is now we're getting a little bit closer to the yellow 21 crossing over the 200 which is a pretty pretty bullish signal for anything if you see the you know the nine of the 21 crossing the 200 that's a pretty good signal and you can see last time it failed here for the yellow to get over the blue this time it's way closer so it's a little spooky but overall you know we do have that 104 70s resistance it's a pretty big level if you can start getting over that it takes it up to 105 80s but right now you know we're still pretty far away from that and i feel like it might have a little bit more upside and might need to reject a little bit closer to this this is kind of mid-range right so i don't feel good about saying what it's going to do from here because it's still an uptrend it still has a little bit further to go before getting up to the 104 70s obviously you can kind of go off the general area you don't have to go directly off the wick high and you know you can miss out on a lot of stuff but you know trying to be too precise but i would like to see it get just a little bit closer to the top and then maybe i could look for a rejection obviously the maximum i can see a downside this week is at 103 50s it pulled down into that maybe try to make a base or a higher low and try to bounce about there if it pulls back but right now it's mid-range right so i can't really say too much about it other than it's still in an uptrend you're still trending over your nine you're still trending over your 21 as you see the green is your nine yellow is your 21 it's your classic uptrend moving averages that's kind of what you use to gauge an uptrend but we're also broken over the 200 which is your dark blue here so overall very bullish dollar looks like it can go higher still you're still over all your moving averages and like i said it needs to get under 103 in order to change the tide and 103 is your 2020 covid peak and it's also just your overall kind of a velocity zone you can see the velocity picked up here back in may once it got over 103 velocity picked up downside once it got here velocity picked up downside again right here so 103 is kind of just your velocity zone and that goes all the way back to when the dollar peaked out in 2020 during covid that's why that's mark green that's why i have those vicks levels mark green they're extremes they're past price points where you know the price or the ticks we're very extreme and there is very hard velocity to the upside or downside or there you know just had crazy wicks big volatility etc so that's the video guys i'm gonna get this chopped up edited and sent out i love you guys make sure you like comment and subscribe dxy here for final thoughts i feel like it could just maybe pull back a little bit down to 103 fifties but that's the lowest i could see it because they could try to make a base there love you guys