 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone, Hazel Chapman, gentlemen. It's Tuesday the 13th of January, and what we have is the Dow down 528 to 38,000. I'm going to run these quickly. Dow down 1.3%, down 533 at 38,261. The S&P is down 1.4%, down 7349-48, the QQQ. And the only way that this market could change trend was if there was a severe, what I said to subscribers, moment and call, especially over the last couple of weeks in my one-hour overview every weekend looking at what's going on, where we are, what we're looking at, is that within the context of speed, we're going to have to have something that happens really suddenly so that the change of direction is so quick that most fund managers just didn't even have a chance to get into the new position. And that would weigh to the downside as they keep getting in to try to short. We haven't got that yet. This is just the first day of a turnaround. It's not even the first day. It's not even the first hour. It's just the 37 minutes that we've been into this position since the market opened. So down 7 at 428.28 up to the 439.14 high yesterday in the QQQ. Very sharp. 1.6 down. IWM, which looked like it was trying to become a bit of a leader, couldn't take out the 205.49 high of December at that peak D. Remember, it happened way peak Ds. And what happened is it is down 3.8% down 7.91 at 195. This is a huge failure. Let's go to the IWB. IWB is the Russell 1000. Went to a doji candle peak F yesterday. And that was the lead. It was doing so well. Here we go. F with a tiny little doji. You know, you've had such a huge move and then you have this tiny little doji candle with it. It's a doji candle meaning it open and closes at about the same level. And what happens is it now has failed to the downside. Yesterday's high was 277.19 and it's trading right now 271 down 4.31. IWM, I don't have to get there. Let me just go on. I want to show you gold. Gold down very sharp. You down 29 almost 30 bucks. Big failure. Look at silver. Silver down sharpie down 0.70 at 22.06. Why is this not updating? Please update. There you go. Down very sharpie hasn't quite taken out the low of the 22nd of January. 22.040. So for the lowest 22.060. It's going to get there. Not good. I had mentioned yesterday that high grade copper was failing. And it did have a little bit of a bounce yesterday. It gave back some of the bounce today at 3.71. Hey, this is going to be very important. We're looking at bonds. The bonds are down really sharp. You down one and a half points at 118 and a half. Not good action. Do the same thing for TLT. For those of you who don't get bonds but you look at TLT. TLT is the Lehman 20th Treasury Bond Fund. Took out the 93.10 low of January. And now it's down at 92.69. And TBT is going to the upside. That is the bonds. The inverse I shares Treasury Bond yield. And I've been talking about this for some time. I said to think that the isn't inflation. Everywhere you go, there's an incredible amount of inflation. Even inflation came back to the DBA, which is the Agricultural Fund. I don't know how it did that. But look at this. Look at that screamer from 20.39 to 22 in the 22s. Almost 10% gain. So we're not getting deflation the way the Fed would like it. But it's probably headed that way over a period of time, but not just yet. I wanted to show you crude oil. So remember, I spoke about this. I said, this is the Chapman wave. Right here. I do want to change it. I'm still calling it for the day. Let me go INDU. The dark news cloud cover. I'm ready. I'm going to call it the dark news index. In fact, I'm changing it right now. Chapman wave dark news index. I do have enough. There are components to be able to call it an index. Oops. Make it a lower case. INDX. And that's that index using the Dow Dairy chart said that I'm going to include this as a gray. And I'm almost sure that it's going to, with bond yields going up. I've been talking about for a while. Bond yields going up. The dollar going up. Crude oil, not really going up that much, but kind of in the higher range. I think this is now I can start to talk about this. I finally can change that color. The fill color is going to be the same as always, which is white. There it is. Okay. So we're back to where we are. Dark news cloud cover from the first second of February. I've been talking about this. Now I think I can talk about it a lot more coherently. That is one of the things that was really important that I've been talking about for quite some time is that for this market to really change course, you need to see 48 to 56 S&P points down, almost at the open. You've got to see the Dow down over 380 to 425. You've got to see an intraday rally attempt and then close at the low and then repeat the same thing the next day and it has to go on for about two or three days. Then you've got this. And what is this? This is what I do in my Chapman Wave book CD from way back 2005. Identify the trend and then trade with the trend. I've got someone in the end that I'm looking at said I'm going to try to play something to the upside and I'm just saying to you, we don't really have a trend change right now but look at what we've got. You see, look at the price going up and look at this big arrow going down. It says shorting all the way up. Uh-oh, wrong trend. However, if you're able, if you're very nimble, you can do these short-term trades to the downside but the main trend will save you. If you're long and these little pullbacks, you can survive them. You'll be looking good on the way down. You can go long but it has to be very short-term because the trend is on the way down. The arrow looked horrible. Now look at the arrow. Doesn't the arrow look down? Doesn't the arrow look absolutely correct? You're trading with the trend. You're trading with the trend. The tide is going out. So you want to be short. The tide is coming in. So you want to be long. You've got the MACD doing the same thing. The stochastic. This is the way it should be. However, that doesn't mean to say, for instance, we were trying to trade the trend because timing is very important. We're short the SMHs via the SOXS. We did have a little success and then we had a couple of very short-term failures. And I wanted to do yesterday at 3.20 in the afternoon, I was going to say, let's buy the SOXS and then I'm going to do it once before, in today. And I always find that people, you can't keep doing it. Unfortunately, that was the perfect time because it is up about 15% from that level. However, we have short positions and we're very satisfied with that. I'll be back. 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The Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. 6648, internationally. At 727-873-7618. Hi, folks. We're back. That was our 530. And I was asked the question, do I see signs of deflation? Well, if you look at the weak continuous contract from the high that was made two years ago, up in the 50s, the continuous contract, up in the 1500s, we are down at 602. I mean, this is very, very weak. If you're looking at soybeans, we were up at the 140s. And now you're at... Sorry, 140. At 1408, 1410 area. And now you're at 1191. So holding quite well in the monthly chart, weekly doesn't look very good. And the data looks terrible. If you're looking at the corn, the corn is also down at the bottom. In fact, it's failing completely. And that corn is trading right now. Well, it's up to three quarters or three right now, but at 433. But it was at 640. It's been cut in half in just since July of last year. Not very good. And if you're looking at soybeans, this is all part of the DBA, which we are still long. DBA is the DBA Agricultural Fund. However, I couldn't even understand how DBA acted so well. This is SM. What is SM? Soybean meal. Oh, that looks even worse. If you're looking at... I'm sorry. If you're looking at the SB, which is a sugar, SB right now holding very nicely. And for some reason, I think sugar, the way it's weighted, seems to always help the DBA, the DBA Agricultural Fund, that it is made of peak E over the double top yesterday and now it's down 6 cents and 21.99. So all I can say is that looking at this, the DBA Agricultural Fund, I'm not sure how it works, but this is up near the highs. 23.01 was the high in May of 2020. We've been long since 13. All I can say is that this is really strange, but strange is what I'm looking at. And that says that the agriculture, it tells me that there hasn't been a translation. Let's look at what he said. Oh, I love that stuff. Just looking at it, but I've never owned it. In the food area, I'll think of it in a moment. In the defensive area, oh, I'll get it. With an S, I think it is. Is it SIG? No, I can't. I'm not going to guess. Anyway, SIG is what? Signet Aberdeen? No, not what I'm looking at it. Oh, GIS. GIS, I knew it would come to me. I know the symbols. I never remember the name. GIS, look at this. This is General Mills, Cheerios, Annie's and other foods. Down the look, up in 90s, just beginning of 2020, no, middle of 2023. And yeah, it is at 62, cut by almost a third. And so I don't know what's going on. All I can say is that it will help at some point. I do see a deflation at some point, but wow, we were talking about there. We're talking about insurance policies, et cetera, in the den earlier on. I mean, there's been, there's a lot of inflation. Rents. I mean, there's a lot of inflation out there. Okay. I want to get back to something that I want to talk about. And ANET comes out with earnings. It's 292.66 yesterday at all time high. It had a whole bunch of round numbers, 260, 265, 260 again, 282. Yesterday was the low 282. It opened at the low. It went all the way to 92.66. And today it came down to 255.94. I don't know. I've been talking about these round numbers. I've followed round numbers not for years, but for decades. I'm not sure yet what it means, but it tells me that this is a stereo of people. Look, even the, even the, if I can actually, I never remember the symbol. This is one of the few symbols I just never remember. RSP. RSP is the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF. It has a round number yesterday open. Screams up to 160.53. 159 goes to 160.53. And Australia now at 156. So I can just go through CDNS. I don't know if I even put it in. CDNS. What's going on here? Yeah. Makes a leg yesterday. It goes to 315.70. And had a round number. Yeah, 311. The day before was the round number. It's trading right now. 294.88 down. 11.70. Mindy, M-N-D-Y, get asked about and that, the NET and Mindy a lot. Had 197 round numbers yesterday. Day before, it did an all-time high, not sorry, an all-time high, a recovery of 239.22. It's trading at 215.30 up 3.37. So Monday.com, task and client management, event planning, gap down, but now it's doing quite well because of earnings. So I want to follow these things. ARM. Did I do ARM? ARM is, ARM Holdings PLC in the semiconductor. Had a round number all-time high of 164 yesterday. Where's the trading? 131. You know, 30-something points off that high. I want to go through these. I didn't do that the other day. It's everywhere. I thought it would just be maybe in the tech sector. No. 528 was the low, I think, yesterday in Marietta, modern Marietta materials, building materials, cement, ready mixed, concrete and asphalt. It goes to a new all-time high at 5. So it has a round number 528 low. Has a higher 541.81. It's trading right now at 525 under the 528 round number. FANG. I mean, all over this. FANG is the, this is the oil, this is the integrated oil. No, this is the diamond energy. So this is in the service area. Look at this. Has a round number 160 low yesterday. I was at a low, no, open. Opens at 160 and then because of the takeover and screams up in today's hitting a high of 169.66. But that's what I'm talking about. That even when you get a takeover, somebody grabs it with a round number because they just have to own it. So what are the repercussions? I have a guess as to what the repercussions are. But you know, guessing is one thing. Looking at the actual market is another. So GGG, Greco, I've followed this for years. We've owned it just briefly once and I've talked about it as a pave. It's part of the infrastructure. This is food management products and packages. Has an 88 round number. It makes a new all-time high yesterday of 88.31 and it has an 88 round number open. It has a high yesterday of 88.25 and today it made a low of 86.06. So how these things are going to play out I think is really important on a very short basis. The way the speed of the pullback occurred just at 8.30. There was a momentary spike to the upside and then a whoosh to the downside says that so many fund managers must have missed completely doing any shorting or even any buying that I think we will see a little bit more round numbers, number one. And number two, they will try. There should be a rally at some point and it seems that any we go to the E-mini. Yep, a nice bounce off the 49.60 low of the down if that is the exact low. Returning at 49.76. First decent attempt at a rally here. Well, second I'd say, second attempt at a rally. And these rallies you're going to see you're going to be meeting up with resistance as folks who missed the short, try this short, we'll see if the shorts can be done. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility across the globe which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of 30 year T bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously. 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Remember this is a process and the process says that you've got to do what you've got to do based on your technicals and then the market has to either it's going to I'm not going to say cooperate. You're not the leader. It's going to dictate and then you have to cooperate. But in the meantime I want you to look at a couple of things. Greco, I want to finish these out last week. I wanted to finish them and I just kept skipping because there were so many and I thought, ah, but no, ah, it's not the word bots. Bots is the global ex robotics and AI ETF. Now, of course, our AI stock is being Microsoft. We got that as a Dow, S&P, QQQ and XLK and an AI and really that was our kind of our benchmark. We bought it down to the 338 level. We've taken a little bit off. We've had it as trading positions. We've made money and then yesterday I said before the open, I said let's take a little bit off, just a tad off and we got it within about pennies of the all time high and watching it and a drop from the 420 area today. It hit 405. I mean, that's a big move in just a couple of days but it's had big moves to the upside. So in the meantime you've got to consider that some kind of profit taking is important. So GBTC this is fascinating to me because GBTC is the GB Bitcoin Investment Trust is trading right now down to $1.14 and $43.69. It had a 43 round number when it went to recovery high yesterday to 45 it had 43 round number open went to 45.03 and Australian right now at 43.68 I'm watching this closely. I haven't said in a leg C maybe a peak C today but if you're looking at Bitcoin Bitcoin has also pulled back here again almost according at a leg C and I have to because that was the start of and you move to the upside over there and if you take it out basically you start fresh. So this should be as Bitcoin could go higher could slightly go to a slightly higher leg D and now I just wanted to finish here. So even CRM salesforce.com unbelievable hits an all-time high that was at 311.25 back in November of 2021 I think I spoke about this the other day plumbers down to the 120s has a fantastic run it goes to 295.24 20 less than 20 points of the all-time. That's amazing and then yesterday what does it have it has to do this this is the candle right here it has the 291 0.00 high on the day it has the 287 0.00 around number low on the day that's the entire candle off to make it all-time I those things don't just happen by chance I mean I've been following around numbers I can't tell you from when I can just forever decades and to me the number of round number says to me that fund managers I don't think it's a little guys I think it's a fund manager are so desperate to get these positions either in or out that there's a degree of hysteria I'm after after quarter round number hysteria and to have a 291 high and 287 low and today it's down 5 281 below all of those round numbers I don't know and if the weekly chart is only at a leg C maybe a peak C this week it says on the short term I have to take note of all this I believe I just heard a thing in my ear and that thing says I have to go to oh we got Brent and Martinez Brent how are you doing well also good morning how are you well thank you I'm calling about I've been you know I have your newsletter so I've been following just you know the potential to do a short and so I went ahead and did it yesterday and I did it based on the fact that the I followed the VIX just like you do of course pretty much daily and I just noticed that when the market turned its highs the VIX was still up and up a decent amount more than you would expect and of course as the market turned it of course went up even more but even at that point at the highest point of the market it was still up so that was enough I felt comfortable to go ahead and take a position and it was really just insurance and I went with the the spy that you recommended short and I just I bought the April 11 calls and they were you know 30 cents or whatever a contract so it was something that was kind of low cost insurance policy really the calls or the puts the calls okay because it's already a short I'm buying the short oh you're buying I'm sorry I don't want to say what it is but in your newsletter correct yes yes I just from I was very confused but because folks this is the spy there's what we have the short term spy three times short the spy and therefore if you're buying a call you're buying a call which is long on the long short position so the whole index itself is short and you just go long it's what so what used to happen years ago you had to go short you had to find the stock it was a big deal in fact the last time when we shorted the spy itself the SMH's some people can't find some brokers don't have them some of those do have them it's really tough and sometimes a little easier to actually just go short and sometimes it's a terrible thing you don't want to you have to put up capital you have to do a lot of things to be short it's so much easier here you just buy the position they've got all the work and you just handle it and then you put in your stop because you always have to have a stop there's no guarantee and that's just the best way to do it and even now with the Dow market so low the point being that you've got to watch for instance let me just do this while you're on Brent so the TLT has plummeted so that means the yields let's go to the TNX which is the 10 year yield so the 10 year yield skyrocketing today and I have to call this probably have to call it an alternate account D slash B but it really looks more like a B meaning that yields can go higher for a little longer in the daily maybe not so much in the weekly which is in leg C that's number one number two is if you're looking at the dollar and I haven't done that at all today the dollar is up sharp it's up 69 ticks and one of 4.82 it's gone to the 6 yeah it's already the 60 percent retracement right there so that's in the weekly chart leg A and it's a leg C I'm calling it in the daily chart so I have to look at the peripherals and say together with all the round numbers I'm looking at that means that means people the fear of missing out is so potent that even fund managers are slapping I mean every to get it on the equal weighted S&P on the index is just I mean it's really tough to do that when you're trading an index is not one single stock this is a whole bunch of stocks 500 stocks and you have to get around number so all I'm saying is that now let me just also put this in the in the pie here the VIX index screaming to 15 it's like that 1488 hit 15.06 I hear the music actually great if you mind holding on a little bit because you are in positions on the short side I would like just to show you the type of thing I'm looking at it might help you in terms of what you do with it can you hold on yes I will we'll be right back down to 480 S&P's down almost 60 we'll be right back with Brent the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX the dollar, bonds the South African rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk you can subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading Tom O'Brien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead with full-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a season trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30 day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award winning newsletter market insights firsthand TFNN Educating Investors an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGC Hi folks we're back we're back with Brenton Martinez California and we're looking at the VIX index and the VIX index in the weekly chart made a peak A then a peak B and a peak C kind of a double top but I do not count in the channel wave no I always do the notation but the notation in the VIX index it's an emotional response to what's happening in the market I've never taken it all that seriously for chapter wave notations even though even this case it made a peak D back in January and then it pulled back quite sharply now what I am a little concerned about is that the move that we've got now in the down almost 500 points S&P down almost 60 let's just imagine that's kind of like a normal correction of 2 days or 3 days we've just done it in an hour and 15 minutes so the fact that the VIX index moved up so quickly just tells me that I get very nervous when I see the VIX index where the market is coming off a high in the Dow or the S&P QQQ coming off a high and immediately the VIX jumps skyrocket such a says to me that response is just too emotional and too quick so this is what I'm going to be looking at there's a chance that today we have a rally attempt a little later on it fails and then there's another rally attempt and that actually succeeds quite nicely in the day I'm just imagining now and the market closes very much off the low but still down pretty sharply I want to see the volatility give back a chunk I want to see go back down to the 1410 1390 area as that happens and stay there even though there might be a weak session tomorrow because I have to see in the general market a couple of days to get the trend change that I was showing when you get a turnaround in the market that the trend is really important because you want to be able to look at the tide and say if I throw a piece of wood in the water some driftwood into the water if the tide is going out no matter what happens that driftwood is going to be pushed out if the tide is coming in no matter what happens that driftwood is going to be coming in I want to be able to identify the trend and have it be there for more than an hour or more than a day it needs to be there as a trend and I think we deserve that right now and then we could get maybe a rotational thing so the 15.59 level on the volatility index is a 200 period exponential moving average it hasn't been there since it came down after going and holding way above it for most of late September into that November high and then sorry October high and then November it plunged so it hasn't been then that was way up at the it was at that point it was at 17.80 so I need to see a start to cheat the 200 period moving average as a magnet so I'm just you called and you spoke about the VIX so I'm going to give you my theory on what I'm looking at on the VIX to be able to sustain a down move so if it if there's another move tomorrow that is pushes the VIX into the 15 15.50 or higher I want to see the Dow and there's to be down like it is right now if that doesn't happen that's just saying too much too quickly be ready for some bounces in the market and that's where we will see whether or not we're going to get a rotation and maybe the sectors that we're weak and I'm including IWM, ARKK that's Kathy Wood it's an innovation fund down very sharply today if they were holding well this is today Tuesday by Thursday if the ARKK is actually trading in the 50s is it 48.53 right now and the IWM is trading it's at 196 trading in the 199 to 200 area that says to me okay we could get some kind of a rotation so that's what I'm looking at the VIX index I don't like it when it goes so quickly so so far it has to hold and it has to hold almost through the close and it has to be high tomorrow for me to be convinced that buying isn't going to come in and be sustained at least for a couple of days I hope that helps you Oh it does Basil I just today with a little hint of that there is going to potentially be some kind of at least short term top and a chance to get in at a price I felt comfortable to do that now I've got a little cushion to go away but we'll see for the moment at least you can handle the trade that's very good hey thank you so much for calling congratulations call again all right thank you very much Basil have a great day take care you too so folks let me just do this I wrote it down oh another reason why I wanted for subscribers we have been short and we are in the money for the short the Dow this is short term that is just as a trade we've had a position but there was a chap away Roman candle at leg D at an all time high it happened to be a green candle but the whole process stays the same and I see to subscribers if for any reason we are able to hold 60 minutes above 38 38. 860 that's 38,860 then there is a real good chance we are going to test yesterday's high if we close underneath sharpie underneath this particular candle that's a signal to say you've got yourself a chap Roman candle it happened to be green usually they read but this is a green one and it's suggesting that the whole candle and that means that the low of yesterday which is Dow 38,628 the whole lower part we should be very strong resistance if there is a balance that's number one and number two I've been saying I believe that in the millennial millennial yes millennium levels that's 1,000 levels that the 38,900 should be very strong resistance maybe not even hitting 39,000 in this move not just yet the weekly charts all suggest we are going higher but this is a very important digestive phase now let's see yes so a question came in and I want to get to this question right away I've had trouble trouble with this particular ETF it's the MJ the alternate harvest ETF cannabis sector we once had it in the 12s and a screen we made just a lot of money we had it in both a short term and a long term position almost at the same level but I had two separate positions I didn't even take the short term off it just kept going higher and higher that was this move over here and then we just didn't touch it for ages I said I think it's done I did say the same thing about GBTC where we did very well and then we never got back in so that was the move that went from the 12s oh there it is from we were in a 12 somewhere around there and a screened up to the 34 level so then we just left it and now what we're looking at is we got in again and we took a little money off of the big bounce of this double top at PIGD and I had said to subscribers in my overview I said you know I have a tough time with this because I think at the level we got in at which was MJ we bought a small position at $3.51 it's trading at $3.45 right now it could go down but I think it'll be back then it'll be even higher like in the year what do we do? 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