 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market's kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Friday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Just after 9 a.m. Eastern time, we got non-farm payrolls, folks, for the month of September, a hot number. Unemployment rate actually dropping to 3.5%. That will be the headline on a lot of local news, headline news. We'll see what the headline is in terms of where this market goes at the end of the day. But we got quite a reaction right out of the gate. You have the S&Ps down 1.23%. Basically, we were coming into that number almost flat. Let's get the S&P print. You're talking about 37.70. So, yeah, we actually caught a little bit of a lift in the final hour, I guess, coming into that number. But we're solid. We were basically even at 8 in the morning. You drifted upward, and then you drop out of bed, man, to the tune of 60. 6-0 S&P points from 37.70 to 37.10 right now. The NASDAQ 100, you're off 1.83%. The Dow right now, off 1%. The Russell, off 1.3%. Crude, that pulls back as well. We hit $90 to the penny. Round numbers. Our man, Basil Chapman, loves those round numbers, man. He's up next, of course, with the Tiger Technicians Hour. Crude hits 90 on the dot. We pull back to 88.80, and we're back to about the $89 range for Crude. Gold contract. We drop. We got some dollar action. We'll jump to that in a moment. That, of course, driving some of the commodity action this morning. Gold, down about $17.00 at 17.04. Gold continuing to struggle, man. You put that thing, let's put it on a weekly going all the way back. Talked about that consolidation area for some time, man. You dip below that level, slightly back above 1,700, but a tough chart recently for the price of gold. Struggling yet again this morning, down about $17.00. Continued dollar strength, man. Tough for gold when you got continued dollar strength. And if you're looking for higher yields, folks, they're coming. We got the 10-year right now, down to another 18 ticks. So much for a bounce, folks. That's your weekly, right? What happened to the bounce? All it is is a tail for this week. That tail of the 10-year is all the way up to 1,1330. We put it back to a 15-minute, and there's your drop-off, man. Talk about getting a little bit out of whack with yields. Dropping lower. The 10-year, folks, just dropped three. Three full points. Yeah, two full points. No, three full points. Yeah, remarkable action. Yeah, three full points. This is where it dropped on the 10-year, as we have yields accelerating higher yet again today. We jump over to the volatility index. Boy, you know, it looked like that we had gotten a pretty considerable spike in the VIX. This is going back to, yeah, just this calendar year. I've talked about it many times in the program. Seemed to be pretty symmetrical. That seems like it could have been a realistic VIX. Kind of pushing out all the market fear as we had the S&P's bottoming and making new lows, right? But we're going to stall a bit here with some new economic data that's going to drive the Fed. 75 basis points seems all but intact. But where do we go from here? I mean, the conversations I have with some of the guests I bring on, whether it's our man Kevin Hanks, Teddy Kakes, that we talked to on Wednesdays, right, is saying, what happens if we are where we are right now, three months from now? Because, man, it just seems like we keep saying, OK, we're not there yet, but the data is going to come. And now it's that first it was the inflation is transitory, right? First it was, OK, wait for the data. It's transitory. It's going to mediate itself when some of the supply chain issues, zero COVID policy policy in China taking place. When those things take care of themselves, inflation will take. And then it became, OK, that's not the case. So we're going to have the Fed. They're going to have to hike dramatically to get control of inflation. Here they go. They're going to begin. They begin in March. When's that going to start mattering? Well, it's going to matter soon. Don't worry. And guess what? What else did people say? They said, we're going to have some great comps coming into the end of the year, because, boy, we already had inflation raging as we came into maybe like late 2021, where we are right now, late 2022. We're now bumping up against comps that should be friendly on the CPI. So point being, again, we've transitioned from now. It's the Fed's hiked. Unemployment rates actually still dropping. But now all the analysts talk is a very hopeful, in my opinion. OK, very hopeful way of saying, well, it's just a lag. Usually things take about six months. We're lining up on that six-month area right now. And guess what? They could be right, folks. But they could certainly be wrong. And is the market pricing in that a year from right now, we're still dealing with rampant inflation? To a degree, the Fed's not comfortable with. Meanwhile, we're sitting at a terminal rate that they've gotten us to of 5, 5.5% maybe. Maybe they have to keep going. We have unemployment at 3.5%, man. Let's jump into some of the numbers. 263,000 jobs added. Pretty much in line. One number I saw was 255,000 expected. One number I saw earlier this morning was 260,000. Pretty much in line. Jobless rate falling to 3.5%. That's a participation deal. Women, I'm reading about this morning, huge deal in terms of participation rate coming out of the workforce. And yeah, I would say the data reaffirms traders' bets for another big Fed rate hike. And this is the number I wanted to comment on real briefly. Now, this is a great feed they have going on with Bloomberg. It's just a constant update since the numbers came out. So this is the smallest gain in payroll since April. But 263 is still much stronger than the longer term, quote, unquote, trend. The number here, the US needs about 90,000 folks, okay? That is the new jobs in a month in order to absorb new entrants into the labor force. So that's the healthy add, right? If you're at full employment, you should still be adding about 90,000 jobs a month to absorb new entrants into the labor force as the population grows, as the labor force grows, okay? We're well above that number. We have wages rising. There are components going on here, which are not friendly to the Federal Reserve and the fact that we have wages still rising, okay? That's gonna be a component of this as well. And there's too much good stuff here to get into. We'll get into it throughout the program. One comment here, you have JPMorgan's Firoli saying yesterday, okay, inflation to stabilize. You need it around, to stabilize around 2%, you need wage gains at around 3%, we're still pushing five. That's just one take, folks. But wage gains at 5%, it's still a big number, man. And you actually have the people who are job seeking, and that's, I'm gonna try and find this one that I had, because job seekers are the unemployed, right? That number is actually dropping in this report, folks. People who are seeking a job, the number of people seeking a job is actually dropping. I'll find the actually tidbit of it. That's just the people who are unemployed. This is the unemployment report, right? That is the case. But when you think about it in that capacity, that's not what needs to be happening right now, folks, for the goal is you're supposed to have, right? What are you supposed to have? Less job openings and more people seeking jobs, okay? And that will allow companies not to have to raise wages to fill the vacant positions that they need, or allow them to pay less for labor if there's more people seeking jobs and less jobs that are available. That is not what is happening. That's gonna be a driving force. I was having a conversation with a friend yesterday and here's the one I keep trying to wrap my brain around, folks, okay? You want inflation back to 2%, 3%. Now I know that the Fed looks at, you know, the personal consumption expenditure, the PCE. They look at this non-farm payroll number in pretty dramatic fashion and consensus is they're going 75, no doubt about it, no matter what kind of CPI data we get from the month of September, okay? But what is gonna happen when we go into all of next year? Is CPI gonna be something that gets explained away as in, I imagine CPI is gonna be running hot for some time, folks. Shelter, think shelter is what, one third of CPI or 30%, something like that. Shelter represents, I know, 40% of the core number. Those numbers are gonna be around for a year or two, man. Rents are going up. Shelter is going up, folks, no matter how you look at it, okay, whether it's a mortgage price going up, whether it's rental prices going up, even if we get a pullback, those numbers are gonna persist, man. And we're seeing it this morning on non-farm payrolls. And we'll see what happens, man. Rent, rent is gonna be an issue. Shelter is gonna be an issue. And we got issues in terms of a non-employment rate of 3.5%, stay tuned, folks. We got a lot to talk about. We'll be right back in three minutes. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGC. 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Visit tfnn.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigeresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back folks, it's non-farm payrolls Friday. We have an unemployment rate of 3.5% folks and we got the S&Ps down 38 points. They've been saying it right, good news is bad news, bad news is good news. This is good news for the economy, man. We were at 265,000 jobs. We have an unemployment rate of 3.5% in the market saying that is not good news because the Federal Reserve does not want that folks. Federal Reserve basically pricing in 73 basis points last time I checked. Next month, basically a full pricing of the 75 going on for November. Then remember, so they go 75 in November. They're expected to go 50 in December. And right now they're only expecting about one quarter point, 0.25 basis points, 25 basis points I should say, next year. The worry is, what if they have to do more? I feel like there's a substantial risk to doing more right now. Like you wanna look at the symmetrical nature of those risks, right? What are the risks? What is priced in right now? What is priced in right now is about a point and a half more of the Fed hiking. Okay, that's 75, 50 and a quarter. What are the chances they do more? What are the chances they do less? What are the chances they do less? That chance is disappearing and it's probably pretty close to zero. That's my opinion, right? What are the chances they do more? I'd say that chance is far above zero. Make sure you're considering those probabilities, folks, because I don't see that as a symmetrical risk in terms of where the risk is. The risk is inflation's running hot, unemployment's at 3.5%. What if the Fed has to do more next year than the market's thinking about? Because inflation will not get under control, man. I'd love to see Chairman Powell this morning or get a glimpse into his conversations or his thinking. He might have a bit of sweat on his brow this morning with these numbers as they persist, to say the least. All right, jumping into some of the other numbers from those jobs reports. Now, where were the numbers? Leisure and hospitality was a big number there. 83,000 jobs left last month. That brings it back to the 6.7% unemployment level that was before pre-pandemic. The biggest laggard, mining and logging. Unemployment's still down about 8% almost compared with where it was pre-pandemic. Now, here's a point I wanted to bring up. Allen Ruskin of Deutsche Bank did not read, I guess, but he talked about something earlier in the week and you have one of the editors at Bloomberg bringing it up, but an interesting tidbit of how things work. We know there is a lag, right? That's the tough part about all this, folks. There's a reasonable opinion that can be made for many different outcomes right now. We know there's a lag. There is a lag. Of course there's a lag, right? But guess what? There's a lag on the other side, too. There's a lag of rental prices I've been talking about. That's a huge lag that's gonna persist for inflation, okay, so there's data everywhere here. Which one is the most influential? But the current lack of progress in slowing things down is not unusual. He found that in eight of nine significant hiking cycles going back to the 70s, the unemployment rate was actually lower one year after the Fed started hiking. And we are now seven months, I believe. Past it, March, yeah, they started hiking in March. So we're about seven months out. So there is a lag, folks, but boy, it is quite a number to make it through that number in terms of the lag and where we are. All right, let's jump around a bit. AMD, with their numbers last night, I was getting text from my dad about AMD numbers last night, not in the good way, man. AMD, jumping over to their chart. They're down about $3.50 this morning. They missed their numbers. Looks like demand drying up in a big way. Breath taking drop in demand as recessions lose. Samsung and AMD numbers misprojections. Taiwan Semiconductor, they bucked the trend, but getting into their numbers, man. Samsung, 32% dive in operating income. AMD, yeah, they're gonna miss the forecast by a billion dollars. That's the one that I got from my dad. Billion dollars, with a B, folks, they're gonna miss. This is what could really be a thorn in the market when you talk about multiples, folks. The multiples are changing. You got chip companies missing their numbers by a billion dollars, okay? Now, AMD stock, it could be worse, I guess, is one way to put it, right? You're only down about $3.50. That's only a 5% hit. Realistically, you're almost back to just where you were in the middle of the day on Wednesday. After they come out and tell everybody they're gonna miss their numbers by a billion dollars. But guess what, folks? You're at 65 bucks. You were just at 165, less than a year ago, okay? And look at this channel line. You're actually breaking back in within that channel line, probably. There it is. Watch out, folks. Yeah, look at that thing, man. You break back within it. What are we doing? We're coming back up. We test it, get near that area, and we're gonna open today. 64 and change, 6283, the recent loss from September 29th for AMD. See how some of the other chip companies, yeah, Naviti is gonna pay for that. They're down $6 this morning as well. And what's the title on something? TS, TSM, that's right now. They're gonna be down $3 as well. Tough one for the chips, man. Look at those charts, all of them in big trouble. All right, what else do we have pulled up here? Well, we'll talk about OPEC, man. OPEC cuts going on. We talked about crude hitting $90. Yeah, and it'll be interesting to see how the politics play out of this one for sure. Higher gas prices. That's another one that doesn't get talked about enough right now in terms of what's going on. The, it's very fortunate, folks, what's happened with cruise prices. You could say that we've been very fortunate to dive from 130 almost, 123 we'll call it, okay, the highest back in June, to a price point of $75. I mean, in Florida, folks, we got gas at $3 right now. $3, we got gas. Now that might not be the case over the last four, five days, four days. We've had crude go from 81 bucks up to 90 almost, but we do have a tax holiday going on in Florida. 25 cents is the tax per gallon. Usually in the state of Florida, that is gone for the month of October. So make sure you fill up those tanks. If you got them in the month of October, but what happens, folks, if we have crude, just doing a simple three, eight, two bounce brings us up to $95, folks, okay? Look at where we, excuse me, look at where we kicked off the month, okay? You come into the month at about $81 and all month we're rising right now. And it's only October 7th. If we really get a spike, that could exacerbate things even more because energy, okay, is a big component. So here's the wild part. CPI, we all know this, but think about it, because CPI, you have food and energy, right? You take out food and energy, you get the core number. You know what's in the core number though? Shelter, shelter represent 40% of the core number. So what if we get some rising crude prices throughout the winter into 2023, that's gonna cause the core number, no, excuse me, that's gonna cause the headline number of CPI because food and energy is included in the headline, right? That's gonna cause the headline to have some headaches for CPI. And meanwhile, we're gonna have shelter driving up the core component so you can't even take out food and energy and cite the core component of CPI as somehow a relief because shelter is gonna be a big problem for core CPI. So keep your eye on crude, man, but $90 a barrel, I don't think we're getting any reprieves there. We'll see where the economy goes because the one thing that could tank that market is China having a big recession. There's zero COVID policy in China and just a recession looming here and potentially in Europe, that could put a damper on the price of crude, but considering where we are and considering the geopolitics going on right now, folks, I mean, I have a headline pulled up. Why not? We'll tease it and talk about it after the break and there's not a lot to break down just besides of the outlier, hopeful tail risk that you're talking about, but you don't like to see United States presidents trying to quantify the probability of nuclear war, which is kind of what you're saying. Putin threats real, could spark nuclear armageddon. You better believe it, man, with Putin, okay? I mean, he's shown, folks, there are some risks there. Hopefully they're very, very small tail risks, but they do exist, unfortunately, in this world right now. We'll be right back for the open, folks. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Okay, folks, welcome back. We got markets open and you look at an S&P down about 1%, 1.1% in the red right now, down 42 points. I imagine we're gonna get some moves in both directions today, folks. We'll see where the day ends. It's gonna be an interesting one with some important economic data out this morning. NASDAQ, off 200 right now. We got the DAO off 259. And if we didn't have a Fed hiking cycle, like we haven't seen in some time going on with the market freaking out about it, yield spiking and inflation out of control, this story would be getting a lot more, folks, attention than it's getting. Biden says Putin threat's real. Could spark nuclear armageddon? And yeah, you hear the rhetoric coming out, folks. I was reading an article earlier talking about how just in state media alone on Russia, they're allowing more critique of things going on, never of President Putin himself, right? But a more realistic portrayal to some degree of the losses that they've had, right? It's, you know, state media for a while was just cheerleading every success that Russia had. That is not the case right now. And if you try and use, and I don't wanna call it game theory because it's not a game, but to some degree it is in terms of the theory that you apply when you're in something like this, in my opinion, right? There is a method to the madness of allowing a critique on state media, and it is not a good method in terms of what it may rationalize, okay? Maybe there needs, now this is my take, okay? But why would you ever allow something like that? Okay, well, you allow it because public reaction is very tough right now in Russia. So Putin, a little worried about that, realizes probably he can't just deny what is happening to a certain degree any longer, even though they deny it to a ridiculous degree on many occasions, okay? But what does that allow? It allows them to maybe do something a little bit more rash. That's a risk, folks, okay? That's one reason why you would allow it, as in the war isn't going like you thought, you have to use something maybe a little bit harsher, maybe you have, I mean, God forbid, just a tactical nuclear strike, whatever they are. I mean, because they've talked about it. He's not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming. So he's creating that type of narrative. Yeah, and once they start, folks, you never know, and boy, you talk about a tail risk. Hopefully that does not come to be, but it is out there. And it's not getting as much attention because of what's going on in the market, at least in financial circles, but that is a financial risk, folks, yeah. Okay, let's check out some of the stocks and how they're opening this morning. We jump back to the charts and we're getting a market sell-off, not surprising, man. S&Ps right back down to the lows, say goodbye to 3700, folks. We're at 3704 right now, down 1.4%, NASDAQ 100. You are off a solid 2% right now. Dow off 1% at $29,660, and we got the Russell off 1.2. Crude continues to climb near about 90 bucks. We got gold off $12. Let's jump around to some of the currency action right now. So the dollar spikes to 113, so much for 110 on Tuesday, man. 113, we'll take a look at this on a longer-term basis. Keep these channels on your radar, folks, because the dollar, the yield, crude prices, all of those three driving so much of what's going on right now, the dollar, probably accelerating towards the higher part of that trend line, 114, 115 or so, on the dollar index. Let's check out how the euro is trading this morning. You know, vice-versa action, euro, trading off the top of that. We make it to a price point, let me back that out. We make it to a price point of about parity. What'd we get today? Yeah, 99, enough nines there, 9998 is where we get to, we'll call it getting to one, and just like that, we're back at 97.63. Pound US dollar, a little bit of a divergence in terms of what's going on there, bouncing around towards kind of the bottom portion, but you got the pound at 111, man. We're gonna get parity in the pound. We're gonna get the euro at maybe 95, 90 potentially. Let's check out how the yen is trading. This thing's just been popping around, and there you go. You got the yen breaking above 145, man. Had a great conversation with our man, Teddy Kegstad, on Wednesday, and yeah, hearts in the eye that you might have some higher prices coming at you in the end. That's a weaker yen, folks, coming at you. That's gonna hurt the price of gold. You got a stronger dollar, you got a weaker yen, and this yen climbing up to right where it kinda spiked lower on just some speak of intervention, not even an intervention, just some speak of intervention in Japan, but it erased all of that now, as it just chops around near 145 on the dollar yen, and let's jump to notes and bonds. 111.15, we put it back on a short term. Let's put it on an hourly, going back about 20 days to see climbing towards that low of 110.19 within a point of that level right now, and you're talking about a yield right now on the 10-year, 3.9% we'll call it, 3.9%. Well, we had, we're at 3.66%, something like that. 3.9% of the yield on the 10-year. A quick one to say the least, and let's look at up and down the line of the yields. The two-year, 4.3, climbing above that number, man. Higher rates coming at you, the 10-year, at about 3.9%, the 30-year, 3.85%. Green across the board in yield, so it's up and down, and look at the one month even, five basis points, man. Just huge moves across the board. Yeah, the two years up about five basis points, the one month's up about five basis points, the three years up almost seven, and the 10-year is up about six. All right, what else we have? New cars, so you looking for a new car? They might be back in stock, but what are they gonna cost you, man? Yeah, getting into that, cocks out to Motifon, the new vehicle loan rate was 7%, 7%, let's talk about loads, it's gonna matter for everything. My dad's used the expression, folks, I love it, you're only worth what your signature is worth, and this is an example of it. Okay, many people don't buy cars for cash, especially recently, man. I mean, you were getting loans at 0%, 1.9%, 2.9%, right? Something like that probably made sense to maybe use that debt, not many times, you can get a loan over a five, six-year period, even a car loan for 2%, 0% in many times, those car companies, when rates were at their lowest, not the case anymore, man, as you have rates boosting it up, and you're talking about the new vehicle loan rate is 7%. I mean, we've talked about housing, okay? But it's gonna matter in cars, in a big way, and that's not even including the rising prices, like they talk about. The average amount financed for new vehicles hit a record of 41,347, that's up from 40,000 during the second quarter, 38,000 a year earlier. The average monthly payment on a new vehicle above 700 bucks. That is a pricey automobile, folks, for an average. You match it with the average wages, and that's a tough scenario, man. Used vehicle prices have been falling from most of 2022. Yeah, not surprising there, but guess what, man, you're gonna have to take out a loan no matter what, right? Used vehicle index has fallen 13% through the middle of September. The average price of a financial vehicle, is over 31,000. A level closer to new vehicle prices than used cars and trucks. Wild stuff going on across the board. All right, what else do we have pulled up here? Credit Swiss, a quick reference to them. They're gonna offer $3 billion debt buyback as they're dealing with their woes, and that continues. Seems like we got a headline every day. And again, I would not be touching this one just yet. The debt buyback echoes a $5.4 billion offer made by Deutsch in 2016 as markets pummel the leader, though the calming effect was short-lived, right? Pay attention to that one, okay? They're following the framework of Deutsche Bank, and that's, I'm not sure, a framework you wanna be following as a bank. S&Ps holding right near the lows of 3703, folks. 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This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps down 51 points, hanging out right above 3,700 right now. NASDAQ 100, you're off basically 2% right now. 11,314, the Dow off just more than 1%. Jumping around to some other data points from the jobs number this morning. One interesting one, job leavers, okay? As a percentage of the unemployed rose to 15.9%. So imagine they're leaving their job, okay? They're not getting fired, they're not getting laid off. They are leaving intentionally their job as a percentage of the unemployed rose to 15.9%. The highest since 1990, what does that reflect? Confidence on the part of quarters that they're gonna find a better paying job. The job market remains way too tight, it should say for the Fed. That is not what you see, folks. When you have people leaving, paying jobs during a recessionary slowdown where the Fed's trying to raise unemployment to bring a slowdown, a hot economy where inflation's out of control, not what you wanna see at all. Now what do we get in terms of economic data? Where do we go next? We get Fed minutes on next Wednesday and then we get CPI data on Thursday, six days from right now. The market will look to those, the hiking cycle though, I would say. It is set for the time being, folks. Yes, I would say so. Yeah, hourly earnings came in, probably as expected, month over month, flat at 0.3%, wages cooling attack to 5% compared to last year. It's a hot labor market, folks, in a big way. And I could just cherry pick some of these. It's interesting data across the board, man. Yeah, you had BlackRock out there, it's a reader, writer, and there's the last one I wanna get to. This is a tweet from Mohammed Al-Aryan, but this is the two-year yield. That's all this is, folks, okay? Look at the spike we got going on the two-year yield on that number, let's click it full screen it, okay? Look at the run you had from where you were October 5th, 4.08, the two-year, 4.31%, the yield on the two-year right now, and let's check it out, where are we talking about? There it is, 4.304%, but when you see it in terms of on a chart, man, what does that mean? That means the market says, hey, the Fed is hiking, man. The Fed is hiking, all this talk of the pivot, and there's the acceleration lower from there, 36.92%, if you got retirement money, folks, make sure you're comfortable if this market traces down to 3,200 or 3,000, because it's completely in the realm of things, we're not out of the work right now. We have people quitting work at a rate that is unseen since 1990. We have an unemployment rate of 3.5%. We have inflation running hot, we got Fed minutes five days from right now, we get CPI for the month of September, six days from right now, and all the markets pricing in is what the Fed has already told us they're gonna do, which is 75 basis points, that one's coming in at the beginning of November, 50 is the estimate for December, and then maybe we got 25 basis points next year. I think there's a lot of risk to the upside there, I think there's very little risk in terms of them not going to where they're gonna go, that somehow these numbers turn around before they get in that final point and a half. It's nothing to say they have to stop there, folks. If we still see an unemployment rate of 3.5% and we have inflation running at six, seven or 8%, they have to do it, because you talk about numbers, man, compounding basis. Let's say you go to the grocery store and spend $100, okay? If you do one year of 8% inflation, it's at 108. You do two years of inflation at 8%, you're at 116 and three years you're at 124. That's 25% inflation just by three years running at 8% and that's not even compounding it, okay? We're approaching a full year of some big inflationary numbers soon. If they don't start to tame, we're gonna get two years of big inflationary numbers soon. Okay, that is why. I mean, think about it, 25% over three years versus if you're at two to 3% you're talking about that grocery road bill going from 100 to maybe 105 over three years. Differences you go from 100 to maybe 125 or 130. And that's just three years and that number is not coming back down, man, okay? These comps should be friendly and they're not lining up friendly right now. And I'd argue that the market is reacting in similar fashion in terms of the pullback that we're getting right now as it's waking up to the fact that, hey, all of this rhetoric of Fed pivot, right? Everything we got this week with the jolt's number, and listen, that jolt's number, that's a good number, okay? In terms of it's a good number because it's a bad number. It missed by a million jobs opening, okay? That's the numbers we're gonna have to see. Those are the numbers that we're gonna have to see for the Fed to really take notice. We're not even close to there yet. You see it in the non-farm payrolls for the month of September, man, we're not even close. The NASDAQ 100, now off two and a third percent, the Dow, now off 1.4%, the S&Ps off one and three quarters percent. There's some great yield opportunities right now, folks, especially if you have any type of investment portfolios on and you're close to retirement, I would really consider looking at some of those numbers because you're talking about a two-year basis at 4.3% and you don't have to even go out that long if you don't want to, man. You gotta go out six months to get 4.1%, man. Right now, with the market, what it's doing, if you're nearing retirement, I'm shifting gears to like an investment perspective, but yields for the first time are at a pretty attractive level. And boy, we got some volatility coming down the line, folks, and it doesn't mean I would just take my portfolio and stick it in to that degree, but I've sent my piece, man. There is a severe risk to the downside, okay? We are just back to where we were in June, and I've said it before, if on June, when the market was at 3,600, okay? This thing got way ahead of itself, obviously, trading up to 4,300, okay? But back in June, if you told me all the data we were gonna get over a four-month period, if you told me that we would get September payrolls on October 7th and the unemployment rate would be 3.5%, we'd be adding 265,000 jobs and we'd have wage grain of 5% a year, right? I'd say, geez, I think the market's probably gonna be lower than we're trading at right now in late June, because that's not how things are supposed to be shaping up four months into the things. That's not how things are supposed to be shaping up seven months into a hiking cycle that began on March 15th, but nonetheless, here we are at the same price point we were in June, and we're making very little progress right now, and what else do we have happening? We got crude coming back for us, man. That is not gonna help the conversation, folks, okay? If we have crude prices starting to rise again, which we do, coming into the winter, that's gonna cause prices to rise across the board. As we come into winter, you have crude back above 90 bucks, okay? You have crude above where it was trading at in August, and remember, look where crude was when the market was at lows, okay? That's a big component of why we've been helped here as well. What if that starts hurting us as well? Crude rising above $90 right now, and this market's not stopping, man. Watch out, today could be a tough one, folks. Here, let's back things up to show. I mean, this could be something like the CPI, because it's a little bit of a changer. Kevin Hinks, our man, we don't talk to him on Fridays. He calls this one the biggest data point of the month, and I would agree, it's got so much in there, and guess what? It is the month in terms of what else is more important than jobs, what people are making. Of course, spending's a big deal. Retail sales is always a big deal up there. But sales are determined by the money that people have in their pocket, folks, from what they make. There's nothing like it. S&P's continuing to drop, now off 71 points. NASDAQ 100 off 280. The day we got the CPI print, folks, okay? You had a bar that was 220 points wide. 220 points wide on the S&P. So don't think that things can't move pretty quickly. You're down 70 points off, 1.9% right now, but we are still 115 points off of where we were trading at just a few days ago when you put this thing on a weekly and zoom in on the action. We got a green bar right now. We got a green bar. I'm not sure that we'll end up with a green bar, and that's 115 points below where we're trading at right now. But guess what? Markets, market's getting a little bit ahead of itself with this run from Sunday night up into Wednesday, and we'll take a look at the Fibonacci numbers that we're talking about right now. S&P's down 1.9%, folks, one more segment. Come on back, we'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, and now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigerses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigerses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well, so it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. 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That's 1.9% taking a look on a Fibonacci basis, folks, just from where we were Sunday night. Okay, the moves in this market, absolutely amazing. 250 points to the upside, just shy of that number, but 250 points to the upside and just like that, what are we approaching now? What are we at? 100, 135 points to the downside, the 618, 3666. Watch out, 3666, that would be the 618 on the SMP. NASDAQ 100, pretty close in terms of where we are in the pullback, you trade up to 11,729. If you're looking for a possible Fibonacci area, 11,200 somewhere in that ballpark, 11,209. I'm not sure it's gonna stop this market and it's strained folks right now at all, but we will see where you go from there. And I talked about yields, okay. Whoops, that's not the one I want. There's the one I want. The two year right now, 4.31%, you're talking about the six month, 4.1% right now. Even on a three month basis, you're getting 3.4%. On a one month basis, you're getting more than 3%, the 10 year right now hovering at around 3.9%. I talked about retirement, I talked about maybe potentially looking at yields, just being prepared folks, okay. Because guess what? This isn't gonna be our beginning in terms of the Fed, okay. We will get inflation under control. I think the chairman has his mind dead set on that. That's what the market should be a little bit more freaked out right now about that, but they will get it under control. Okay, the market will rebound, but we might have some volatility, man. We might have some volatility. Nothing to say that we can't trade back down to 3,200 folks, nothing at all. As the market right now is down 74 points. As we continue to make lows, I think today's gonna be a tough one, man. Even if you ask me right now, we're gonna finish higher or lower from where we're at with the S&P down 75 points, I'd probably say lower. And we commit to Fed minutes next week. They're not gonna be friendly. We commit to a CPI next week that's probably not gonna be friendly as well, but I talked about yields, okay. Treasury I bonds folks, check them out. You can only get them through this month at the rate that they're currently at. I think it's 9%, something like that. I was gonna pull it up and let's see we're at 9.62%. That is what they're at. You get them from Treasury Direct 9.62%. They reset every six months. You gotta keep it in there at least a year. You pay back a quarter of a year of interest. Check them out. You get that rate through this month, then they reset again. Check them out, folks. If you haven't already $10,000 per person maximum is the max you can put into it. Stay tuned, folks. Basil's up next. Have a great.