 Okay, welcome to the weekly charting analysis webinar with Jasper Lawler at CMC Markets. We've got the risk warning on the screen. We'll have a quick go through that. Any questions at any time, please send them through the chat or the Q&A windows in the webinar program. I'll answer them as soon as I see them, really. FF11 to give us some full screen. Fresh week, here was an interesting one last week. It was a good one for stock markets. Finished off with a little bit of difficulty from the U.S. non-farm payrolls report. I hope all of you were successful with your trading in around that. Just to quickly recap, let's maybe have a look at Dolly Yen. So basically what's happened, I don't know if this is the best example, it probably isn't actually, but was this it? Yeah, probably not actually the greatest example to look at Dolly Yen's range bound. But basically what happened is we had an initial spike. Yeah, one at one o'clock, so yeah, that'll be it. We had an initial spike higher on the data just because the headline jobs number was better, but then we dropped down in the dollar pretty quickly afterwards just because the monthly earnings data showed it to climb when a small increase was expected. That was basically a sort of offset a little bit, a big jump that we saw in January, which I think the explanation goes that it was largely because of an increase in minimum wages that kicked in at the start of the calendar year. Still wages looking a little bit soft, and so that raises the question whether the Fed has any sort of ability to raise rates this month. It's not the Fed we're really thinking about this week necessarily. Obviously they're always at the back of mind, but it's more the European Central Bank. That's the big event of the week that comes in on Thursday. Now we heard last week that I could pull up the Germany 30 chart for this because I think it illustrates quite well. In and around mid-week we heard that there was some indecision from the ECB about whether they could, you know, about doing anything more than just cutting the deposit rate. So it seems like a cut in the deposit rate is fairly well expected now. So that would probably take us to minus 0.5% on the deposit rate. So that's what we'd be expecting to be announced at 12.30 on Thursday at EMT. And then come the press conference. That's when there's apparently not so much consensus on what else can be done. And so I think probably not unrelated is that even though it's in oil prices push a fair bit higher. European markets pretty much flat line since then. And you can see that on this Germany 30 chart they actually run into these peaks from January. So not managed to take out those peaks yet. Not a big, sharp sell-off yet. There could be, but at the moment I think people sort of holding their breath to see if the ECB can come up with the goods. So that would be the question, Mark, what extra can they do? Mark is looking for more than just a rate cut. They can't really extend the timeline again. I mean, they've already done that once. It's already gone from a 12-month program to an 18-month program. So, you know, obviously what everyone's really looking for is for them just to increase the monthly amount of purchases from 60 billion euros to maybe 70, 80, 90 billion. But there's some debate as to how many bonds are actually out there for the ECB to actually buy it. So they may have to resort to extending into other areas. The most extreme would be exchange-traded funds or just outright shares as the Bank of Japan has been doing. Needless to say, if the European Central Bank started indicating they were going to buy exchange-traded funds or shares, that would be positive stock markets. Probably a pretty outside chart that's going to happen. But it's still hard to see how else they'll be able to do much more in the way a monthly purchase is because the market's just not as big. Now, while we're in this topic, let's have a quick look at the euro. So a bit of a messy chart, to be honest. You know, all good if you're trading short-term because we'd quite a good downtrend there. But it's hard to find the kind of general context for it. We did pretty much stop at the bottom of this prior range. You know, somewhere in the, you know, just past the closing levels here where the rally kicked off. So we kind of did the rally and then just dropped back again. So the price that we are at the moment, funnily enough, is almost precisely where we finished the ECB meeting when there was a massive disappointment in December. So we've kind of chopped around, gone sideways, pushed up higher, it comes straight, but that come down overshotted it to the bottom of the range now and we're right there again. So this was the big 300-bit move, the December meeting, and here we are back pretty much at that point. So we've been finding a little bit of resistance for the 200 DMA. We're still positive from the perspective of a higher high and higher low-steem put in. But the market looking a bit, you know, a bit soft and bit sideways really. So you can see that the euro is pushed higher in the last couple of days, maybe partly reflecting not only a bit of dollar weakness obviously from the non-farm payrolls, but that was just a Friday effect. There has been a bit of dollar weakness in general, but also just that maybe the ECB, they're not going to come up with the goods. You know, if they did come up with a big easing package, that would generally be negative for the euro. If they come up with something a bit more disappointing, that's positive for the euro. So that's kind of the lead-up for the week there. More generally in stock markets, note today, if we just have a look at the UK 100, note today in its week that the FTSE 350 Mining Index is up 28% so the mining shares, a basket of those are up 28% this year. The FTSE is down just over 1% this year. So we've had a good bounce back from the lows. It was a lot worse than 1% for sure. So we're almost back to kind of break even on the year for the FTSE 100 and obviously the UK 100 is our proxy for that. So we had that false breakout layer and we pushed up. We've taken out this high here, which is certainly a positive, but we haven't managed to make much ground above. And so in these kind of choppy markets, the risk is we're basically looking at another situation but reversed. We've had a breakdown, doesn't go anywhere and just goes back. Here's what we could be dealing with here. Break up, chop, chop, chop, doesn't go anywhere, back into the range again. That seems like a good distinct possibility to me. We have pushed out of the 57 area on the RSI. So that was a positive development. But really I think the kind of line in the sand probably is just, here's where we ideally would have wanted to bounce off that second day. If we just continued high from there, that would have been good, but we haven't managed to. Probably given that we haven't managed to bounce immediately from these peaks, I would suggest we're probably heading down to the lows. And these lows really here, these need to hold in my mind to continue the decent amount of momentum that we've been having. If they don't, then that's pretty much just back into the range with the false breakout here. Short to term, on the short to term chart, this looks a bit like a little double top taken place. And obviously as the chart says, bearing in mind, we are below the down slipping turn to DNA. So we've been led higher by the likes of the mining stocks, which have been the most beaten up over the last 18 months. So the risk there, when you see that, is that it's a short covering rally. So the company, it's not the good companies doing well, as you want to see in a healthy market, it's the bad companies bouncing back as people scramble out of their short positions. Generally, something I put in the chart forum actually, I think US markets could be kind of leading the way here because there's some pretty fairly cut, well-defined resistance. Now this is the small cap, approximately the Russell 2000. You can see here on the RSI, massively overboard, nearly at the 80 level, rolling off a bit, as of today at least, obviously we're not closed, so you can't reach too much into that, so at the moment we're down a bit today, and we're banging right into this potential resistance area here. And we have managed to push through it a bit so far, that's encouraging, but obviously looking pretty overextended here. So not so much that you want to go aggressively short, but it's definitely a risk area, and if you have been long for a while, you want to have a bit of a heads up in this area. It's a potential for a drop. If we do comfortably fly through here, then I would just naturally say that there's previous peak here where we sort of held up a little bit and then did the massive drop. That would be an area where a few people have positions and want to square them off, having gone long here and then got back few and break even. There's slightly less looked at chart, the broader US markets, but if we zoom in a bit to the top 500 companies, you see something pretty similar. So we had this double bottom, we broke out, but now we've run into this kind of selection of lows here, and a bit of reversal that took place from Friday on our candlesticks. Obviously it's right at the 2,000 mark, and just shorted the 200-day moving average, so we could get it all pushed up to the 200-day, but this is looking a bit uncertain here right into our resistance area. So it's under the 200-day moving average. It's after a prolonged move higher, and it's into an area of resistance. Fibonacci, I think we're through most of the areas, and let's just see maybe from the highs we're at 61.8, just for a little extra bit of confirmation. Well, look at that, yeah, there we are. We're pretty much at the 61.8% fib of this whole decline from these peaks in November. So a confluence of resistance here. You're going against the short-term trend if you are going short, but still a few reasons to believe that this is a bit of a troubled area. If you get a close below Friday's low, that would be a little bit of extra confirmation, I think, that we put in some sort of interim top. If you're looking for a bit of kind of cross-asset confirmation here, look at it right across the equity markets, but here, green and oil. So oil is higher. It had a good day on Friday as well, yet we're not a consultant in the stock market. So that normal positive catalyst you get from a higher oil price, not seeing it help stocks today. So maybe again another reason to think we're a bit of a tipping point. Switching over to FX, then we've got a few events going on. We've already touched on the ECB. We've got German industrial production tomorrow. We've got colony speaking tomorrow and Eurozone GDP tomorrow. So a few events centered around the Euro. Let's put the Euro pound, because that's kind of an interesting one at the moment, because we had this triple bottom. The objective was 7,980. We didn't quite get there. We had pretty sharp reversal away from the 200-day moving average. Now we could push up to that objective again, but I think this is a good one for the benefit of hindsight for anyone who was taking a breakout of these peaks here, which worked out pretty nicely. What are we talking about here? Well, close to the full target of one, two, three, 450 pips from that breakout. I think when you're planning your trade, you see the 200-day moving average there, and it has capped rallies last time it was toasted, and you have your objective pretty much 50 pips above the 200-day moving average. You'd be eyeing up a target of 450 versus 500, and with the benefit of hindsight, this is a good example where you'd think actually better to TP a little bit earlier here at the 200-day, just in case it causes some resistance ahead of my surprise target. So this is a good example where it has, in fact, happened. And I think a bit of extra evidence is just that we have seen a bit of a top here, because we had that big reversal. We came back, and then we pushed it and made a new high, touched the 200-day, and rolled off sharply from there. So we have tried to break higher again. We've got here once. We've tried to push higher and haven't done so. My amount of weekly chart here, a bit hard to see, but if I drop down to, like, a four-hour, you can pretty much see the kind of double top where that was the first peak, and then we pushed up. 200-day, he was here. 200-week moving average, sorry, he was here. I think I was saying day before. Apologies for that. I meant week, and then we rolled away. So pretty much a double top. We're holding above the neckline at the moment, but again, if we dropped through that close from last week, not really, yeah, I suppose last week, if we dropped through last week's low, it's looking fairly bearish on the Eurobound, and we're obviously coming off a kind of failure swing here from the RSI overboard. So the Euro has been doing very well against the pound. The pound's been sliding, but the pound, as he has, had a pretty decent run of form recently. The pound is actually a bit overboard against some pairs, but here may be a bit of a turnaround about the stakeholders. Now, we do have UK manufacturing production on Wednesday, and the UK trade balance on Friday, which is not normally such a massive one, but we've obviously had this big slide in the pound. That's not going to be great for the trade balance. As far as China data, no direct impact as far as FX, but we do have China's CPI, PPI Thursday, and over the next weekend, we've got China industrial production, and I haven't seen it on the calendar, but I assume retail sales, they normally come together. So let's let me look at sterling itself. We alluded to this in the last webinar, I think, the bullish RSI divergence here off the loan. We've got a good rally off that so far, but seem to be suffering a bit. There's 42.30, which if we pull out, I think it requires a monthly chart, is the lows from 2010, which is obviously what we took out in February. We bounced back in March, but that would be an obvious multi-year kind of area of potential support and resistance here. So pretty much on the dot, 42.30, we're rolling away from. So obviously the opportunity was at 42.30 itself, but if we get a lower close today, particularly below the open from Friday, a little bit of confirmation maybe, that we've seen a little bit of a top. And obviously bearing in mind that the weekly chart shows us that we're on lower lows and lower highs, and we're below the 200-day moving average. So kind of in line with the trend as well. Euro, we did look at, didn't we, for the sake of the ECBs. Yeah, fairly kind of messy chart. Let's not look at that again. Dolly Yen is an interesting one. We've double-bottomed. I know I'm on a very short-term chart here, but we've double-bottomed, but we've not taken out the neckline. The neckline would take us to about 118.70, should we break above basically 115. We've got that big 116 resistance in a way. You could easily get a kind of false break through 115, fail at 116 and drop again. So be aware of that area, but something in the lines of 118.70 on the cards, should we get a push through 116 as well. At the moment, not seeing much demand. It's faltering at 114. If you ignore the spikes, you look at the closes, barely getting any closes through 114 here. And Dolly Yen obviously matches up fairly well with equities. And if you think about the S&P 500 and things, we had that double-bottom and then a push right at S&P 500 rise, we're probably up here. Dolly Yen not even broken out higher from that previous peak in February. Now, we've had a few back and forths over the all market, but we finally broke out pretty big time last week. This is Brent. So we're on a daily chart here. The big one was that we pushed through the 35-36 area. That was a good breakout last week. Now, we've just run into the previous peak from January. So above there, we're the highest. I think, well, as of today, we're actually according to our cash prices, we're the highest we've been all year. So a bit of a turnaround on the oil price. Look at a bit over-extended, but that's not necessarily a reason to think prices can't go further. One thing to perhaps be a bit concerned is we've got a bit of a confluence of resistance here. Yes, I've messed around in terms of which high I've chosen to use. I haven't used this high because, frankly, it doesn't line up as nicely. This was kind of a choppy range bound. It was here when we bounced up and then failed to get back up to the top of the range again when the downtrend really kind of kicked in. So I've used that. And it does just work out nicely with these peaks here. The 50% retracement is right where we're at at the moment. The 61.8%, if we do manage to push through these peaks, sits right in line with that, the August low, which held us up a couple of times before we dropped off. So I think it's fairly clear cut within the main levels in oil at the moment. It's that breakout of 36. That's the kind of support beneath us. It was resistance and out support on the downside. A bit near a term is maybe where we broke out on Friday. These peaks here are around 37. And if we get higher through this level, it's the 41.70 really, I guess, is where the 61.8 is. And then just a bit above that is really just 42, which is the low from August. And we'll finish on a high with one of the best-looking charts at the moment. If I can just get this webinar thing to drop away, so I can actually click. Why are you doing that? It's 11 U. It's got this one on, what was it, Thursday that we broke out? Yeah, there's a pretty clear cut triangle pattern here. This is the daily chart, better seen on the four-hour chart. Look at this, just the lows lined up beautifully, highs lined up beautifully, and then just got a breakout on the four-hour, the hourly would have been the best ones to catch it on. But even on the day, we've got a pullback to the 1250. So even if you'd wait for the day to close, buying at the end of the close, yeah, it's always a risky one, and we haven't followed through that much yet. But if you'd wait for a pullback to the 1250, then you'd add a ninth entry point, and we're pushing higher again today. So the objective, I need to scroll the chart down a bit. Based on the height of this triangle, which is obviously a pretty wide one, should actually take us to 1325. So immediate support would be the 1250 that's already held. And if we're above there, then good chances, I think, we can get up to this 1325, which does take us pretty much underneath that 200-week, moving average, and kind of somewhere in line with this peak from back in July. But I think it's hard to argue that we've turned a bit of a corner in gold, but I think the risk is that, you know, the way it swings around is that we've had a big uplift. How much further does it really have to go, especially while equity is looking quite buoyant? It's been going up with shares, which shows that it's not entirely just a sort of anti-shares trade at the moment. It's a general sense of risk aversion and mistrust in the rally in stocks. People are buying gold almost like a hedge. Either just, no, I don't believe there's rally at all, I'm just buying gold, or just sort of, well, I am buying some shares, but I'm going to buy gold in case things fall apart again. Okay, I think let's leave it at that. Not seeing the specific questions through, so thanks very much for attending. Good luck with the trading this week. Just all the signing out.