 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network After all that talk about what the Houston Texans would do with the second overall pick They do want to taking CJ Stroud last night will Levus falls outside the first round It was a fun draft. We'll talk more about the draft talk about some wind totals coming up on Monday with Ryan William still swing by there today. We're in talks me pl We're talk match week 34th Austin cast and I'll break down some baseball bets I like for today as well. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Number fire calm. My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here is mentioned by Austin cast check him out on Twitter at Austin cast He is a senior editor for a number fire calm in Austin. We're talking pl But you are an Indianapolis Colts fan, and I know we were slacking yesterday about CJ Stroud It seems like you wanted him but Honestly if the consolation prize as you get true for Anthony Richardson, that's kind of fun No matter how it turns out. So how you today on this Friday? Yeah, I'm doing really well and yeah, I agree. I wanted Stroud But I'll take Richardson over Levus. I'm really excited about it. It should be fun Even when it's not going well, it should be entertaining. So yeah, it's just After what I've watched that quarterback for last few years just to have something new that hey He's going to be the guy for a few years like yeah Feels good and he can physically move which is a difference. Um, that's a positive as well after Philip rivers mount ryan It's a Radically different change in that regard. How nervous were you when Stroud went second the betting odds like I think Levus is like minus 250 to go for it that one point or so How nervous were you that they would go levus instead of Richardson there? I was very nervous. I thought they were pretty much for sure going to take levus just going by the odds that have moved that way Throughout the day and yeah, I just wasn't going to be real happy. But Yeah, seeing levus fall out of the first like that was just really crazy to watch and Yeah, it'd be interesting to see where he goes today. Yeah, interesting for sure I think that the hooker want to be interesting too. So It's going to be a fun second round as well a lot of fun prospects still left But we'll talk more about that again on Monday with ryan williams now We're gonna talk to me pl with austin austin will do them a second year But first when we had you on The first time I believe it was your first time here on covering the spread to talk about e pl You mentioned man's city To win the whole dang thing and they're now minus 1200. So you get Anthony Richardson You've got man's city after that big win earlier on this week now minus 1200 Everything's coming up austin right now. Yeah, it feels like it. I think Most of the bets hit that we talked about last week all three No all three not most it was all of them. Yeah, things are going well. I got to Take it as it comes and just be happy with it I love it. Well, happy to have you here. We'll talk about magic 34 in just one second My first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts We're looking for some NASCAR and f1 thoughts I had my thoughts on those on yesterday's show They are time stamps if you want to skip beyond the stuff for thursday get to those just go to The episode description and find the timestamp for formula one and NASCAR. That is right there And again, we'll talk more how to fail coming up next week on monday with ryan williams Let's dive in now and talk about e pl match week 34 Though austin pretty light slate on saturday with just three games looking at that saturday slate Which bets are you targeting at fan dual sports? Okay, so despite just three games actually like a handful of things on saturday I'm going to start with the brentford match against nottingham forest My favorite bet of the weekend is brentford to win, which is minus 155 Pretty much any way you want to slice it brentford are the much better team There's seventh in the premier league and expected goal differential per fb refs expected goal model Forest is 19th forest have lost seven straight road matches and they're devlast and road goal differential for the season brentford On the other hand or sixth and home goal differential So really the only thing forest have going for them is that this match means a lot more to them Because they're in a relegation fight and brentford are Headed toward a mid table finish and don't really have a ton to play for right now But that's not enough to push me off of brentford brentford. Just won 2-0 at chelsea Midweek despite having not having that much to play for so I really like them that this minus 155 number and It actually last night was minus 145. So things are moving that way And then with that I also like eve on tony to score a goal, which is plus 110 He's the clear focal point in attack for brentford. He's got 19 league goals this year No other brentford player has more than six And he's an excellent penalty taker. Maybe the best in the premier league He's converted seven of his eight chances from the spot this year. So Really like brentford and I really like tony to get on the end of a few goal scoring chances Yeah, tony plus 110 for an any time goal over at vandal sportsbook Uh brentford to win as you mentioned minus 155 after being minus 145 last night So there's some interest there make sure to get that one if you still can at this uh current number How much does motivation sway things for you? Um because you mentioned that nottingham forest may have more motivation than brentford It how much does that worry you like how much does that dissuade things for you or is a situation where Everyone's going to try hard. Do you judge it based on how hard they try previously? You mentioned the chelsea match like how much is that weighing for you? It factors in some um in this instance It's not enough to make up what I think is a pretty big gap between the two especially with this match at brighton If the match was at nottingham forest, I'd probably stay away from this game obviously depending on what the lines were but That matters for me some if uh If if I'd seen if if I thought brentford was maybe just kind of like mailed it in here for the past few games Maybe that would change it, but they've actually been playing really well and yeah So yeah, it's not enough to make up like I said a pretty big gap between these two Yeah, I think that like you mentioned seeing them play well midweek I think that actually is pretty impactful because that's what I do in the nfl is like if a team has no motivation But they're still playing pretty hard Like the rams for certain parts of last year like that to me says a lot and Does definitely impact the way I view things anything else you like on the saturday side austin across the other two games Yeah, so I like brighton to go over one and a half goals, which is it's minus 178 Should be in the goals tab. Yep Brighton are legitimately just like one of the best teams in the league in all areas Especially going forward. They've amassed the fourth fourth most expected goals and they have at least 1.7 expected goals and 12 of their past 14 matches Should be under the home team Markets I get lost to sometimes Um brighton have scored eight goals across their last three home matches And I don't think wolves are going to be the side to slow them down Wolves have conceded at least two goals and three of their last four road matches And they've conceded at least 1.8 expected goals and each of their past four road matches against teams in the top nine Plus brighton scored three at wolves earlier this season. So The minus 178 juice isn't fun and it actually was minus 165 Last night. So just like the other bet kind of Moved the way I wanted it to but With people could have gotten it sooner, but it's just a bet. I really like Yeah, minus 178 the implied odds there 64 percent for brighton to go over One enough goals against wolves. Again, that is in the goals tab over at vandal sports book Half of this is you teaching me epl The other half is you teaching me how to navigate the vandal sports book on desktop because Obviously, I'm not as familiar with these In that regard it said there there's so many markets for soccer. I guess Yeah, it gets crazy. I wish I had that problem in NASCAR I don't but I wish I did for sure. Okay, so Bets austin likes for saturday brighton over one and a half goals at minus 178 He likes brentford to win at minus 155 and yvonne tony to score a goal at plus 110 in that brentford match as well Bit of a beefier slayed for sunday. We got five games on or five matches on sunday austin Would you look at those any bets you like over at vandal? uh, the bet I'm like most for sunday is um Alexander ezak to score a goal in the new castle match um, we've talked about new castle or ezak on this show before Both he and new castle are just playing lights out right now new castle have scored at least two goals and seven of their past eight Matches and in that stretch ezak has racked up seven goals And he's only started six of the games. Um, I think both of them can keep rolling against uh, southampton southampton are the last place team in the league they Pretty much are doomed to be relegated Um, the ezak should have a few chances to score new castle are playing just fantastic right now And as a bonus in their match last night, uh, ezak came off the bench So he should be rested and ready to go so I think all signs point to him having a few chances to score I believe ezak was the one you mentioned a couple weeks ago were to wait until lineups are out to see if He was in the starting lineup, but it sounds like because he didn't start Recently you expect it's pretty firm. He'll start sunday Yeah, I would say most likely he will but I'm never gonna push back on someone waiting to see this starting line one. So sure, okay ezak is minus 105 to score for the new castle versus southampton game And austin is on that one across the sunday matches over at fangirl sportsbook austin It was a fun time having you on here once again for today I'm going to send you off to go enjoy go watch some anthony richardson youtube highlights. Um, Maybe go stare at the the man city ticket stuff like that. Enjoy your weekend A pleasure having you on and good luck to you this weekend Sounds good. Thank you. All right. Check out austin on twitter at austin cast find his work EPL betting guide is up now as well over at numberfire.com if you want to read austin's thoughts in written form We'll dive on in to the baseball slate for this friday here in just one second But first the nba playoffs are here and you can get in the action right from first tip with fangirl right now All customers can get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend when you bet the nba playoffs That's right Just place a three plus leg same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any nba playoff game And you'll get bonus bets back if you don't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than america's number one sportsbook head to the fangirl app And getting no sweat same game parlay every weekend Uh, when you bet on the nba fangirl official sports betting partner of the nba Must be 21 plus and president select states fangirl is offering online sports wadering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc Bonus issued is non-littrable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions applies to terms at sportsbook.fandual.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler Or visit fandual.com slash rg in massachusetts. Hope is here gambling helpline ma.org Or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in new york 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open y in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1 800 9 with it in wyoming in kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in kansas ks gambling health.com Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in mariland md gambling health.org and in west virginia Go to 1 800 gambler dot net Let's talk here about tonight. It's mlb slate over at fandual sportsbook Plenty of games available for tonight and there is one game that presents a couple spots that i'm looking to bet That is for the brewers and the angels and i like both the money line here and an under On tyler anderson. Let's let's check out both those right now the brewers money line is minus 142 anderson's strikeout prop Sitting right now Five and a half under is minus 154 and these two bets are correlated for me because A lot of the reason i should have value on the brewers money line is because anderson has struggled a lot So far this year his velocity is down His spin rate is down and it's led to some pretty rough outings so far this year Looking at anderson across 2023 he has a 12 strikeout rate his swinging strike rate is 9.8 percent It's been pretty rough now a 9.5 percent swinging strike rate does imply that the strikeout rate should increase but it's a lot lower than last year I'm skeptical It'll increase the point where there's no value in under five and a half at minus 154 The brewers are a massively high strikeout team against lefties and i'm guessing that's why anderson's number is so high here but I don't think the matchup could overcome the issues He has right now So anderson under five and a half strikeouts minus 154 the first leg of this one where i'm seeing some value The second part again is the brewers money line that is tied heavily To the thoughts on anderson and his issues with getting strikeouts But it's also I think an appreciation of wade miley who has a very difficult matchup But miley has done a nice job so far this year last year the year before as well suppressing hard contact He has an above average bullpen above average defense behind him I think there's enough value here for me to buy into what the numbers are saying So the individual bets here the brewers money line at minus 142 I do like the anderson strikeout prop under five and a half at minus 154 now you've heard me say Countless times on the show. I'm not a huge fan of parley and things together just a pile of parley there together I'm not a huge same game parley person either I think that this situation where the bets actually do mesh pretty well. They correlate together fandall knows that they're not stupid Uh, but you could same game parley those together plus 150 is a number on that It's not amazing as far as how much of a tie in you're getting a plus 150 because again fandall knows those bets are correlated But that is a consideration if you are a same game parley a fan You can check that out anderson they're five and a half brewers money line plus 150 over a fandall sportsbook I think that works personally. I'm probably going to go with them I have gone with them individually as opposed to tying them together But if you want to you know, get a better number the same game parley is available plus 150 For the brewers to win and anderson under five and a half strikeouts The second money line where i'm trying to value for today is a team we discussed quite a bit not always with the best results But that's the houston astros minus 144 to beat the philadelphia fillies My model is the astros at 64 to win up from a 59 implied I assume the reasoning here is because of the starty pitching matchup from braval bez is on one side starting here for the astros he has had better velocity so far this year and He's used that better velocity to increase the strikeout rate without sacrificing the tremendous fly ball rate that he has He basically just lets up a ton of ground balls. No fly balls. That's the way you want to play things You want strikeouts and ground balls? Valdez gets both those across his first five starts this year with that increased velocity five or 2.98 Skill interactive eray for valdez. He has been tremendous Aaron nola starting here for the fillies has at times Had issues on the road and not sure if that'll be the case this year But so far this year nola has just struggled overall Entering the year i'd kind of flagged him as a guy might be a bit wary of because He had a very long pace between pitches and now you had an pitch clock and that could be an issue for a guy like nola Trying to adjust his velocity has been down. It has not been getting that much better That's led to pretty poor advanced numbers now when i'm projecting this game building out my model i have expected progression in there from nola I don't expect what he's done in 2023 to be his new baseline So I expect improvements and they're pretty major ones honestly But even with baking and improvements for nola I still are the astros is pretty heavy favorites in this game. So 64 to win for me 59 applied at minus 144 I think that the astros a good value So the two money lines for today. I like the breweries at minus 142 against the angels and the astros at minus 144 against the fillies Two other strikeout props other than anderson to check on these because I've not seen them since we started talking to austin The first one is in the mariners blue jays game. I have interest in alex manoa Under five and a half strikeouts and we'll see where that number is at right now Under five and a half is minus 128 for manoa. It was minus 126 So that stayed pretty much the same. I think you can still get a minus 115 elsewhere So shop around on this one for manoa under five and a half strikeouts I think there is value even at minus 128 at vandal sportsbook I've got manoa projected for 4.75 strikeouts tonight. You need to get six to get in over here So about 1.25 strikeouts a cushion that builds well for an under Manoa has been cutting back on the sports team fastball for nine starts now and in those nine starts His strikeout rate is 19.5% that number is higher than the strikeout rate this year. So I'm expecting similar to know a manoa to Increase his strikeout rate as a year goes along But this also means that his low rate this year is not entirely new because even when you include some last year data It's still pretty low manoa Has gotten to five strikeouts three times this year at five starts So he is flirting with the over here. He is at home. He goes deep in games I understand why this number is where it is from manoa But he has not gotten over five and a half strikeouts as of yet I still think there's value under five and a half at minus 128. I would probably back off if it gets to minus 135 or minus 140 probably somewhere around there is where I start to get really nervous Just because again, he does go deep in games I've been flirting with the over here for sure. So at minus 128 I take it But if it gets a little bit higher, that's where I'd start to get a little bit worried Final strikeout prop that I'm liking for today also under five and a half Just sticking with that exact same trend and going out to the Dodgers and the Cardinals game the final game of the night I like dust in may under five and a half strikeouts That was uh, it is now minus 140 right now fandals sports book for dust in may under And a couple things align to make the under pretty viable here The first one is may is facing a low strikeout Cardinals offense about 21 percent against righties They're a slightly better than average in terms of strikeout rate against righties. Second. They're very good Um, they could chase a guy early because they are just a very good offense third We've seen may make 11 starts since he returned at the beginning of last year and He's topped five and a half strikeouts just twice in 11 starts Now one of those was last week his most recent start And it came when he went back to using a slider more than he had been earlier on this year If you were to guarantee me may would be using his slider more going forward I would probably back off this number, but it's not a guarantee I don't want a one game boost in a pitch Where you hit the over by a half strikeout to override all the other data I have may projected for 4.83 strikeouts tonight And I think that's a big enough gap me to take the under So strikeout props for today dustin may under five and a half minus 140 Tyler Anderson under five and a half at minus 154 and alex manoa Under five and a half strikeouts at minus 128 on in addition to the money lines Now as we discussed not a huge home run prop market guy because I just don't think it's my strength And I want to bet towards my strengths, but there are actually two I feel pretty good about for tonight Over at fan dual sports, but the first one is in colorado for the rockies and the diamond backs And it is not full course field for tonight because the temperatures are in the 50s So you take course field you downgrade it a bit because the temperature is low I still think there's value in ryan mcman at five to one to go deep for the rockies mcman is a guy Who barrels up the ball a lot? He has a 20 percent barrel rate So far this year his hard hit rate is 50 percent his fly ball rate 37 percent He strikes out too much That's definitely a downside to this because he's facing meryl kelly who Can't occasionally get some strikeouts his main issue has been walks so far this year and walks aren't dingers So that definitely is not a super positive thing kelly does get some ground balls There are reasons why mcman's number is five to one But you're getting me a guy with the platoon advantage at course field Facing a pitcher who has had some issues so far this year Which may mean to may lead to increased exposure to middle relievers I think that all adds up well to make mcman a good value again five to one the homerun prop bet for ryan mcman Given his 20 percent barrel rate all the hard contact and a decent fly ball rate I think that lines up well to make big man a good value at five to one The other guy I considered here is brenton doil just got called up for the rockies A little bit worried about strikeouts with him more so than with mcman He's plus 750. I gave thought to it couldn't quite pull the trigger there, especially given there were like 70 in denver Maybe I'd do it, but I think for right now. We'll stick with just mcman at five to one The other strike or a homerun prop that I like for tonight is a guy who hit three home runs across this weekend Adelis Garcia facing off against clark schmitt and clark schmitt is getting a good number of strikeouts so far this year He also has been better against righties in his career But he has let up a 43 percent fly ball rate to righty. So it's not as if he is super super restrictive Garcia was five to one to go deep earlier on today. It's plus 480. I think there's still value in that number If you check it later on today, and it's shorter than plus eighty four fifty or so Then i'm probably gonna divest at that point, but plus 480 right now I think that that's still make a lot of sense because garcia, although he's already Does hit righties. Well, he's a 222 iso versus righty since the start of last year his fly ball rate is 39 percent Been hitting the ball obviously very well so far this year. So I want to buy into garcia Plus 480 the number for garcia to go deep. I think that makes a lot of sense So two homerun processor today ryan mcman five to one adelis garcia plus 480 I think both those uh, totally fine bets ones that I am on board with That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread want to give a big thank you once again To austin cas make sure you check him out on twitter at austin cas and check out his work over at number fire dot com I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We'll be back with you on monday talking about the nfl draft talking to nfl wind totals With ryan williams getting his read on those kentucky derby thoughts coming up early next week too So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast to get all these as they go live each and every Weekday I'll talk to you all once again next week. Have a fantastic weekend This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network