 Okay, we should be up and running now. Okay, it looks like we are. So another weekend research video. It seemed like some people liked very specific symbols. So I'm gonna include those again. Sofi and Snapchat seem to be of interest to people. Gonna just start off here with Nvidia and I'm gonna look at the chart. I'm gonna look at the earnings. I have a worksheet for valuations and I'm also going to look at tip ranks. So I'm super fascinated with what's gonna happen here with Nvidia. I'm gonna just plot the 200 day moving average or above the 200 day moving average of course. What does tip ranks say? We'll just start off with that. They're saying the upside is 867 with a high price target of 1200. Let's go look at Nvidia. So what do we say it was? 867 is the average, 788. So we're pretty close to that. Current forward PE is 32. We're gonna jump to the earnings and it really depends on what the growth rate is. If we say that something around 20% is a growth rate, then maybe it's a little overpriced. Peter Lynch rule is two times the growth rate, so a 40 PE and it's pretty close to that now. So problem with overpaying for growth is you may have to wait two years for your stock to grow into that multiple. Peter Lynch argues one times the growth rate which is if it's 20% growth and it's already at 32 PE, it's a little rich. Stock could fall 50% and it would still be on the rich side. Let me say that again. Peter Lynch says if the growth rate on average year over year is about 20%, a 20 PE would be a fair price. It's at 32. So when is the stock cheap? A lot lower, unfortunately. So let's look at my worksheet and I track the earnings of a bunch of stocks. On my worksheet, of course we have the Magnificent Seven. And then these are all color coded depending on good or bad numbers, right? So the S&P has, this is earnings yield, forward earnings yield and forward earnings yield for 2024 is about 4.9%. The current price divided by the forward earnings gives me that number. And then if you look at the Magnificent Seven, almost all of them. In fact, all of them, Google's close, but all of them are more expensive than the S&P. They're also growing at a faster rate. So earnings yield wise, if they weren't growers, they wouldn't be very attractive. They don't earn very much at this price. A lot of people buying these stocks are expecting the growth to be the kicker, the upside. That being said, NVIDIA has a 1.6 earnings yield and for this year, it's expected to earn 12.29. I updated these last week, so unless they haven't changed, unless they've changed, these are still after it. NVIDIA is supposed to earn this year 12.29, which gives it a 1.6 yield. Not very attractive if it wasn't growing, but it almost doubles earnings by 2025 and then keeps growing at roughly 20%. And then the other thing I track is the PE. The current PE for 2024, it says 64. That should be right. That should be right. I'll have to double check that because they changed the 2023, 2024 numbers. So if that number, I need to find out the fiscal and the calendar year and make sure that's accurate. But I had here a 64 PE and then 2029, if that's the number, what's the number? What do we get over here? $40? I'll have to redo these numbers. But last time I updated, 64 PE was the 2024 PE and then five years later, the PE would be 23. So according to the numbers last time I updated, they're already pricing in five years worth of growth and it would still be about the same value as the S&P. If you look over here, for S&P, it's about a 20 PE and that's now in five years from now, if NVIDIA does grow according to last week's numbers, it would be about the same if not more expensive than the S&P. So not cheap, not discounted, none of these are green. So that's NVIDIA. An example of something that is super cheap is some of these Chinese names. One that I'm tracking is IQ, the Netflix of China. Earnings yield is fat and juicy, so this is green. And then if you take all the earnings yields, all the earnings, discount them to today and then figure some multiple in the future, there's a huge upside potentially, so then my worksheet will go green all over. While I'm here, I'm gonna just see what TIP ranks says on IQ, did I punch that in right? Six dollars, so they're saying IQ could double and go as high as nine. So fair enough. All right, so let's look at another one. I'm just gonna go down the list on the magnificent seven. Let's look at Google. I mean, they're all gonna be on the upside. I'll use it half month. So Google's 143, at the low there was 90, almost a double. Interesting how Google is just nowhere near what Nvidia is doing. What are they saying for Google? Upside is 164 and it's 143, so not a lot of upside on these stocks. That's what the, they're not cheap, is how I would read that. So let me just look at what we have for Google's earnings. So slower growth rate, but not a lot slower than Nvidia. And then the forward PE is cheaper than Nvidia. So there's a better value. Now we're hearing a lot of opinions on how AI and the open AI is gonna hurt Google search. So maybe that's being baked in. The current PE is 21, which is 100 divided by 21 is a five yield, or another way to think about it is if they earn $6.77 and the price is 143, earnings divided by price gives us about a 5% earnings yield. It's gonna be less than that. We already know it's like 4.7. But in five years, if the company grows, instead of $6.77, analysts are expecting, as of today, $15, so more than a double. That means that the PE at that point in the future would be a nine, 9.45. So regardless of where the price is right now, the company will, let me make the shape, will grow its earnings. So the business itself will grow its earnings. We as investors wanna get a good value. So we wanna pay as little as possible. And then as the earnings grow and potential dividends inflate the balance sheet, we wanna receive that value either as the price appreciates or if the company pays out those dividends. Those are two ways to win or exit. So it's just depending on the type of investor you are. If you're a swing trader, short-term investor, you only want the price to go up. If you are looking to invest for the long run, you wanna get the best deal you can and then give it as much time as you can and the balance sheet will grow and the company will earn more and more dividends and earn more and more money and they can pay it out as dividends or they can invest and then later pay it out as dividends. Just depends. When you do the math on these companies, the best return for the least amount of risk is just a buy as cheap as you can and let it grow. By far that's the easiest way to get a lot of money without a lot of risk, without a lot of work, without a lot of thinking without a lot of decisions and trading. Let me go to the worksheet. And again, this is my worksheet, not advice or recommendation. Don't use my numbers, do your own homework, but this makes things easier for me to understand. So Google right now is almost the same earnings yield as the S&P. Another way to think of it is, let me just take a look. S&P earnings are supposed to grow about 10% according to not my numbers, but analysts. If these numbers are accurate, Google's growth rate is not being respected. And you can also see that right here. So present value of five years of earnings plus a five year price. I discounted the earnings cash flows and then some inflated price in five years. Now it's a very rosy inflated price in five years. And given that, that shows me a little green. It shows it can be 2.8 times higher. S&P according to the same formula would be 1.26 times higher. So these are all color coded. Deep green is obviously more potential upside. Anything in China, I would be careful about though, because we know there's a lot of geopolitical risk. The numbers are fantastic, but it's China. So I am trading Chinese names here and there because I'll trade anything in a small size. I can't, I wouldn't invest in any large size in China because there's a lot of risk. I have some Russian stock that I'm stuck in, for example. The stock has tripled. It's Ozone, Ozone. I don't know how to say it. I bought it somewhere in this crash here. And the stock has tripled. So 300% return in let's say a year and a half. Probably more like two years now. But they're delisted and all the sanctions make it hard actually impossible to trade. I still own them, but until they square up or they get on good terms and maybe that war and I won't be able to have access. So it could be even worse because China's not so friendly to foreign investors. So that's why you gotta be careful with these international names and the riskier countries. Let's look at, since we're looking at Google, so the current PE is at 21, which is close to the S&P. But according to the 2029 expectations because Google's expected to grow, the five-year PE would be 9.5. So the earnings would make the stock cheaper in five years, 9.5 out of the magnificent seven. If the numbers play out as expected, Google would be the best deal. We still don't know what's gonna happen with AI and add revenue, search revenue. So if you have an opinion, that would really help. But if Google were to go lower, I'd be interested, Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham have a rule. If you can get more in yield than treasuries, that's when you take a shot. Right now, treasuries are paying 5% for the one year and all of these names are not paying more than treasuries. So it's very hard to be a value investor when the value is just not there in yield. We're gonna treat yield like an interest rate. That's what earnings yield is. So when Google was down, let's say $90, let's see if I input that in the sheet, how it looks. If Google was at 90, that would be 7.5 forward earnings yield for 2024, that would be more than treasuries. So if it went to $80, 8.4, 8.4, 9, 10, those are all fantastic earnings yields for a company growing 15 to 20%. Right now it's earning 4.7, so not half as much earnings yield because the price went up or the price is up. And I've already weeded out. If a company has high debt, I put them on a separate part of the sheet. I kind of weed out the high debt ones. Very important because if they have a lot of debt, you don't own all the earnings. That some of the debt holders own a big chunk of the earnings. Let's look. So we did Nvidia, we did Google. Should we look at Apple? I've done Apple a lot before. The growth is slowing. I'm showing 3.6 for the forward earnings yield, which is what, a 33-ish PE, 27. And not a lot of future growth. What does tip ranks say? 206 dollars average upside. And 182. So again, another small upside stock. Let's do Tesla. Because Tesla is actually lower. Tesla is not at all time highs. It's down 53.7% from its all time highs. Did I get that? 218 dollars one year upside. Do I have any notations? Not that special. All right, let's look at Tesla's earnings. I already have them in my worksheet. They should be up to date. 324.40, 324.40. So they're actually coming down a little bit, but they're close. So Tesla has a 1.7 earnings yield, which means the current price of $191 and $3 is all you get. If you owned all of Tesla and all of Tesla cost $191, you'd get $3 divided by the price. That's how we get the 1.7. So that's a low yield. But because we're expecting growth, investors are paying that much for the future. So $3, $4.50, then $5, 6, 7, 9. That's the growth people are paying for. The five year 2029 earnings yield is three times higher than what they're getting now. But the price has already gone up and is looking forward. And you could tell because the S&P is paying 5%. Tesla is only paying 1.7. That tells you that they've already jacked up the price. This is 59.6 PE, very expensive, right? 21%, I averaged out the growth, so 21%. And then the 2029 PE is 20. So we're already looking past five years, if you think about it. So Tesla's earnings yield is very low, which means the PE is very high. And even five years from now, it's not cheap. So there's not a lot of room to make money here. If you're holding for 20 years and 50 years, okay, maybe. But what if we go into recession? There's a lot of expectations now that commercial real estate's in trouble, China's in trouble, Germany's in trouble, Japan is slowing down, could we be slowing down? If that is gonna happen, maybe there's a discount in a lot of these names. That's the case I'm in. That's the camp I'm in. I think there's gonna be a discount going forward for a lot of reasons. So I'm looking forward to a lot of these companies going on sale. Maybe Tesla goes back to 100, who knows? If you, a percentage of stocks above the 200 day moving average, well that's up. There's another one that I just found out about. 72% of stocks are above the 200 day moving average. Another way to look at it is, every time the stock market was on sale, this indicator was down low. And every time the market was expensive, this indicator was up. And right now it's up. Let's see, 2022, 13% of stocks were on the lows, 2020 at the bottom, 8%, 5% of stocks were on the lows, 2021 at the top, 95% of stocks were way up above the 200 day moving average. So that's how you use this. This is S5TH, not on the, not on the lows, and then volatility. Volatility is not high, fear. So if fear was higher and those other bullish percentage indicators were lower, you would make a case for stocks being cheap. Oh, and I have this earnings yield ranker. I'll go over that real quick. The S&P is right here at the bottom with the 5% yield and then the magnificent seven, they're all below that. Then I have a bunch of Chinese names with high yields, but not all of them grow. And then I have a five year potential ranker. Some of the stocks that we're all tracking, especially the magnificent seven, their five year upside is not as great as a bunch of these other stocks that I'm tracking because so many people are crowding into the magnificent seven stocks that there's not a lot of upside. And then of course these risky Chinese stocks, they have lots of upside, but you may not get anything if there's geopolitical problems, if they delist stocks or if there's war. Where is, do I have stone, that's Brazil, Upwork, Corsair, Twilio, CarGurus, PDD. All right, which are the ones that we want to cover? Let me do, I'll do Microsoft real quick. Microsoft definitely broke out $410. What's tip ranks say? Whoops, 410 I just said. 469 is their target, 14% upside. 410 and they're saying 469, which would be a 14% return. Microsoft earnings, 11 and 13 growing around, what is that? Seems like it's around 14, 15, whereas Microsoft 11 and 13, so my numbers are still good. 2.8% earnings yield, it's not a juicy yield. And five year upside does not look very good for some reason. What's wrong with their growth rate? So I guess they slow down in the later years, so that wouldn't be very good. Let's do Snapchat, because I didn't do all the earnings last week. So Snapchat used to be, well, 84 bucks at the highest of highs in 2021. Lowest of lows was five-ish. What do I have on Snapchat? So Snapchat has a low yield right now, but it has high growth prospects. If 2029, they earn $1.34 and you pay 10, that's less than a 10 PE. So yeah, an eight PE. So 67 PE right now this year. But because it's growing 20 to 30% a year, eventually it'll grow into a decent valuation according to analysts. Snap earnings, what is the, I'm gonna pull up the tip ranks, analyst expectation $14 for the one year. So Snapchat, according to analysts on average, they're expecting 32% upside. Yeah, wow. So lots of growth, still expensive this year, but lots of growth. So isn't that insane? So what do they say? 14%, it's at 10, and used to be $80. So imagine the type of growth they were expecting back in the day. I can actually look at that. So Snapchat in 2021, for 2029, they were expecting $9 in earnings for the future. But now for the future, they're only expecting $1.42. So you can actually chart analysts' expectations of earnings as well if you wanted to. And that's what happens. If you look at seeking alpha and you see these earnings and you get excited about the analyst expectations, they can change. And if the analyst expectations change, like your assumptions are gonna change. So very interesting. That's why you can't lean too much on analyst expectations. You have to really know the business so you can make a good decision. I'm gonna look at the, some of the Chinese names real quick because somebody did request. Baidu has a 9.8 earnings yield and should double earnings by 2029, according to analysts. So 6X upside potentially because it's so cheap. I have Baba somewhere. Yeah. So Baba has a juicy earnings yield but they're not expected to grow. They're getting a lot of profit, margin, pressure. A lot of companies are looking elsewhere to trade. Mexico. So Baba is on their PDD, 5.6 earnings yield. Remember they own Timu. They're gonna be a big rower but they don't make a lot of profits yet. I mean, 5.6 is pretty healthy. So it's not a bad one to consider but the chart has been on fire. 15% is what analysts are expecting. Let me just look again at PDD which is the owner of Timu. Yeah, I don't know why 2026, they slow down. At least that's what the analysts are saying. 40% growth, 28% growth than 32. So maybe they keep growing and you gamble on the growth that it keeps growing. If you look at PDD, I know I traded it when it was down here but I got out way too early. It was like a $25 to $30 stock went up as high as $150. So I wouldn't be surprised if it gave back some of this. I wouldn't be surprised. China's in a recession, maybe more. Deflation, recession, real estate, chaos. It's in a mess. Here is the HSI. Hopefully they'll recover because if not, lower lows would be pretty disturbing. 2008 lows, we're not far from that. So, and the rest of the world is, let me see, VEU, VXUS is far higher than what China is doing. Japan, Germany, Mexico. Yeah, we'll see. Where's IQ? IQ is $3.51. Was as high as 44. And then what I've been tracking for a long time is MOMO. $6 used to be five, went to 10, was a cigar butt at one point. I'm gonna end with the indices, S&P, gap up on NVIDIA earnings. That's right, BLRX. Sure, why not? What is it, BioLine? Let's see, BL. It loses money, hey? The dollar. So sales are supposed to grow. What's the business? Healthcare, biotech. They still have a drug approval. Israel, huh? Well, friend, I don't have a lot of information on it, but it sounds like a business that's yet to develop. They're losing money. Someone expects their sales to go up. This is a biotech. Looks like a very risky one. I don't have enough information to have an opinion, but 88 million, very small. Very small, very risky. Don't have an opinion, but I know it loses money. I avoid money losers, but if you're trading it, you're trading it. I don't have any insights. I would listen to the calls, look at the SEC filings. The one thing I'm looking at is the Russell. You're welcome, Maro. And trying to figure out if there is gonna be some sort of a sell-off before everything else. Because if the whole market is up here making new highs, something stinks in the Russell, if it's lagging, and they have a lot of financial exposure, KRE, regional banks. See, KRE is not doing as well as the normal large financials. And my thinking is that that'll bring the Russell down. Plus, we're starting to see some divergence in the volatility. Someone's gonna be buying puts. You're asking about rumble? Rumble's a fun one. I actually do track rumble. I actually miss that pop. I am a fan of rumble, but let me tell you why. They almost get too cheap to ignore. Yeah, 90 cents intangible book. They're still losing money. Whoops. But they're spending a lot to get content earnings. They're gonna lose last year, 67.58 this year. Yeah, I would keep watching it. It's very tradable, but they don't see them making any money until 2028. And even then, that would be an expensive price. Let's say they're growing at 20 to 30%, then if this were the PE today, maybe it'd be an okay deal, but all these losses are gonna drain the stock price because they're gonna print shares. So I'd be very scared. What tends to happen is they go towards a tangible book value. If you look, it's bounced off that level before. Maybe I'll do outstanding shares. Yeah, because they're gonna print shares if they need money or they're gonna borrow. So I would hope this thing comes back down and then just trade it or just wait because they'll pop it up, it'll drip, then they'll pop it up. I'll give you an example to look at. Rivian is the same thing. They're losing money, but it goes to this tangible book value, which is their book value if they have a lot of cash and then it'll bounce and then it'll drip and then it'll bounce. And a lot of companies trade like that if they're capital intensive, the autos, the banks. I like to track it. The reason it's worth looking at is sometimes if they get too cheap, it's almost like statistically too cheap. And how do I put it? I don't wanna say it's free money because it's not, but if you look at Rumble, they only have 2 million in debt and 267 in cash. So they don't have a lot of debt. So it makes the stock cheaper. The enterprise value is when you factor in the cash and the debt. Yeah, I actually read Intelligent Investor and once I learned the cigar butt strategy, I started using tangible book on all stocks. Man, it's a game changer. Tangible book is good and then there's another one that you'll wanna add. I think it's net current assets. If you look at net current assets, where do I keep missing it? So if you find a company that has net current asset value per share higher than stock price, you're gonna wanna do some more research on it because it's technically a Warren Buffett cigar butt. In other words, if a company has $10 worth of net current assets, which is basically cash and cash like items, if the stock price is below that number, you get the company for less than zero. And there's actually a few of those, like JR, is this right? Yeah, let me make this one. Net current asset value, I'm gonna make that green and companies should not trade below that green value. I have a little bit of this one because I'm trying to see what happens. It's statistically just super cheap. That's the whole point of that. There's another one, MSN. That one, it's below tangible book and net current asset value. It's been there for a while. I got involved around here and it shouldn't be below a dollar in theory. They manufacture through China. They sell little radios on Amazon. Anytime China's in trouble, the stock is down. If you look in 2020, this thing was 65 cents. And then it went above tangible book. Like when the stock is too cheap, when it's this cheap, what happens is liquidation would be a good thing. Bankruptcy would be a good thing. This company is worth more dead than alive. So that's how you look at these, like Rivian. At a certain point, Rivian has a lot of cash, but they're burning it. If you look at Rivian, they have nine billion in debt and 9.3 in cash, so they have more cash than debt. So if you look at all the equity, you have so much cash that it makes the company cheaper. So instead of 9.75 billion, if you bought the company, you could remove the cash and it makes the enterprise value 5.5. That's how you think about it. When there's so much cash inside a company, that becomes an asset. Even though they're losing money, they raise so much money in the IPO. A company like Rivian or Rumble, you have to factor in what's on the balance sheet. Rivian is losing a lot of money. What's Rivian worth right now? 10 dollars, okay. So what's gonna happen? They're gonna lose four and then two and a half and then two. They're gonna keep losing money and they need to make money or they'll just start to run out of that cash. That's the problem. And I've seen these companies run out of cash, print more or raise more and then investors are losing money. So you wanna try to catch the inflection when it goes from losing money, losing money, starting to lose less and then boom, make money. That's what happened to Tesla. They were in trouble until they weren't. So I don't think I have Rumble, unless it's on my losers list. This sheet I don't have Rumble or Rivian because they don't make money yet. I have it on another sheet. I just started going live. This is my second live that I've done. Normally when I do research, this is the type of stuff I do, but I just decided to throw it up on the weekend. I don't have a set schedule. What I recommend is if you wanna have a discussion, you put up a symbol in the comments. And I'm happy to do research because that's how I'll get some interesting ideas. And I have a worksheet that'll screen those ideas. So any cool idea that I get, I'll just pop it in here and do some analysis. Earnings yield and growth, that's what I look for. And I try to understand the business. Like I have a bunch of, like I call it my radar, earnings yield and then growth. So there's so many good stocks out there. We need as many eyeballs as we can. If you're doing VWAP, RSI and Bollinger bands, I don't know if you're day trading or not, but I don't really day trade these stocks. I try to own stuff and then short the indices. I'm kind of a bear, so I'm usually short the indices, but when the numbers are so good, I buy stuff that is just too good to ignore. That's all I got really. We'll be ending the stream soon. So if you have any comments, you can put them in there and I'll do them on the next one for next week. Agen, I think someone else mentioned Agen. I'll do that one for you. Agen has negative, tangible book and negative net current assets, so. And they're losing money. That's three strikes right there. You can also do it on seeking alpha. So that's a penny stock, it's a micro nano. Man, that looks pretty rough, I have to say. And analysts are expecting losses. See how easy it is? If you do it on a trading view, I think their numbers are probably super negative. That's why they're down here. So that's pure gamble, if you ask me. Let me look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin, I expected to follow whatever the large cap market does, so I've been wrong on Bitcoin this whole time. I've been picking shots to the downside, but hasn't been working. Looking for like a bear flag, but hasn't been working. We'll see you next week. All right, y'all, I think I've been streaming long enough. If you have any questions or symbols for next week, put them in the comments and we'll look at them together next week. Cheers.