 Okay, welcome everybody. This is our weekly charting analysis webinar with myself Jasper Moeller. It's US election week. Obviously, US heads to the polls tomorrow and we'll find out the results theoretically early Wednesday if it's really close it could last longer. Obviously that's really what's driving markets at the moment. We're seeing a big risk-on rally in markets today. We'll have some charts there. It's quite amazing how these these turnarounds in sentiment or what these happen near big support areas, near big resistance areas. Now that's clearly what we're seeing in some key markets. US 30 gold, the dollar to some extent. We've got the risk warning on the screen here. We're heading into the last page. Any questions at all, please just by them through the Q&A box or the participants, so the Q&A or the chat window. I'm happy to go over any questions you have. If there's something I'm talking about, we've had a few big piece of news. Obviously the Fed recently, Montpain Perot on Friday, England last week. Lots of stuff going on but hard to get away from the US election. It's really driving sentiment as we run up into it and we're expecting a big start in US stock markets. US 30 here. Our proxy for Dow Jones, as I mentioned, crazy how these supports play out. So this was our, we've been in this tight range for what's pretty much a couple of months now. We're pushing into record highs. We weren't able to make much of a new one here, a bit of a false break. Markets rolled over badly but then just went sideways since and it was that June, September 12th low that basically capped this latest leg down and we've gapped higher and we've gapped above these various levels of resistance. So now these are support on any pullback. It's very hard to call it the erection here. It's obviously just very contingent on the election result whether we break up or down out of this price range. There's a downward bias according to this falling trend line but support has held. Should we get a move back into here? That will be a high probability opportunity because we've got the downward trend line and we've got these series of peaks here. But should the market's got that high? Obviously there's a rising chance of a break higher. Particularly when the result comes out, you can probably expect another kind of gap type move like this. It will be happening in the early hours in the US. So it will probably be while UK markets are open. It could be just before the open on Wednesday. So in terms of open markets probably gold and currencies going to be the ones that are going to be able to immediately react. Obviously through our platforms you will be able to place trade but obviously the Dow Jones is not actually open. That's the US 30. Let's look at UK stocks. Now again quite crazy how this support's working. We had this rising trend line through these two lows. You had the trend line there. The alternative was to have just two areas of support from here and here. And obviously the markets pulled away just before reaching that old low. So this support has held. This rising trend line has held. So we obviously had this downward trend since making a high since touching those old record highs. So all kind of working as we'd expect here. We hit the old record high. Markets in quite a big pullback from there because obviously that is a major resistance. But a big fall in the market would come back and the market ran out of steam. People took profits and went short market at the old highs. Now this is obviously an inflection point here. Does the market go on to hold having made another higher low? Or does it make a lower low? And obviously that changes the environment somewhat. Then we start to look at more longer term bearish buyers. The moment even though we've seen a sharp decline still we've got to look at the fact that in this weekly chart it's held this low. It's in fact because it didn't even touch it, it's made a higher low. Looking on the shorter time frame charts, if we're looking for this rebound to continue, you can see that we're running in some resistance here. So I think this would be given the momentum in the market, it would be a riskier short. Or what would be a, I think with this trend line having held and maybe again if you are placing trades today or tomorrow, really whether you like it or not it's a trade on the result of your selection. If you think that Hillary might venture then there's bound to be a bit more uncertainty at some point. We don't know what the high is going to be yet as in I'm just putting this line in I don't know if this 6800 will be the higher today we might still push a bit higher. But at the moment you can see that our 61.8, 78.6 nice pullback zone sits right around 6100 and sits right in the middle of this gap that we saw this morning. So should the market get back into there you know that would be for me a juicier spot for playing a Clinton victory in a further rebound. We might not get there as obviously the risk if we do get there we can break lower of course. But it does look like a bit of market structure has been broken up here we're taken above this short term high but we're looking at the overextended so maybe there's a scope for rolling over and we can see some better opportunity there. So I think the way to look at you know we've obviously seen a sharp down move we've run into this area of long term support. We've pushed up quite quickly showing a lot of demand in this area taken out of the old high here showing a bit of a shift in the market structure and these are lower highs lower lows made a higher high. So where do we make you know where does the higher low come in. You know the 50 percent is going to be in and around here or we could maybe push into the 6100 again. Should we get a little sentiment wobble for some election type news perhaps maybe oil prices drop again some prices lower. There might be some opportunity presented in that area and then obviously down below this long term support and then obviously we've got to change our game panel a little bit that might be where we decide to change our emphasis somewhat. Just got your message Hugh in terms of the 2100 okay we're covering it here I hope this makes sense to you. I mean generally if you know if you're interested in more of the fundamental idea of the influence of the US election on the 2100 or indeed some of the other markets one thing to look at would be just right on the CMC markets homepage here you can see we've got how will the Wall Street react to the US presidential election etc etc one new election and you know Michael's written something on how I set sterling I've written something on how it would affect the UK stocks on the 2100 etc. That was written a couple of weeks ago but I think most of it holds the general idea being that you know global equity markets are probably going to pretty much move in sync. The one area of global equities which isn't traded as heavily on our platforms anyway is emerging markets there's perhaps a little bit more uncertainty around the performance there because they tend to do better under a weakening dollar and should the status quo be maintained through a Hillary Clinton victory which would be good for stock markets and also be good for the US dollar probably which is not so good for emerging markets and emerging market currencies I hope that all makes sense but certainly have a look at yes I mean certainly have a look at that homepage if you haven't done so already some good influence stats and things on there even if you're just bit intrigued to learn what the election's all about got some good stuff on there. Now let's switch gears and have a look how things work out in Europe. Again it's a surprise surprise a major support level has held and we've seen a big gap higher so certainly you know the resistance held so you know obviously these things are perfect we're picked above it you know a few people have tight stops above this high you know they've got taken out so obviously what do you have if you're if you're selling the market you've obviously got stop loss to fire back you know if you're a big institutional seller you're looking for liquidity to be able to place a seller although you need people buying so you know these stops get taken out up here by big banks and the market ones like now we're into the support you know we've seen a slight bullish bias because we didn't actually need to drop through the lows here we actually managed to bounce before we even got there you know we took out the you know this low here maybe these lows here we took out this low here where something one of those stops ran down here lots of liquidity down here buying it up so you know a bit like the US stock market we bounded off the bottom of the range you know now we're now we're no man's land because we're out in the middle and really depending on the election result the market can break into higher and lower okay let's switch gears from equities to currencies what's going to be in depth into the euro actually in a euro again another interesting example where the you know a resistance level has worked out quite nicely so okay so we're on the daily chart here we know we've obviously all been familiar with this chart we rebound we're basically dipped below this this support over here around the 109 mark we've probably had a strong way up above 111 but 111 into 111 50 and this previous area of support have proved to be resistance and the markets dropped away again these support resistance areas aren't perfect with you you can see on the short time frame this is clearly being respected so again market rolled over some people would have got a bit enthusiastic and gotten short the market down here after this big down day obviously again stop losses above here and then the big sellers come in and sell it down again and we have taken out that low just about so a slight bearish bias here from hitting this big resistance level we have seen some evidence here that the market structure is breaking down a bit equally on the the RSI I would call that a head and shoulders pattern there on the RSI indicating that we should see something akin to if you take the height of the pattern to be you know a long way to be that if you take this as the height of the pattern you'd expect this is the 100% extension down here and it works out quite well with the 78.6% extension of this rally up from this particular note so and in around this old high so this won't say there's a bit of kind of cluster of support that the market potentially could be running down to test what is the general bias here well we've had a big run higher but overall we're quite range bound and so I think the fact that we've run into quite a solid area of support and resistance we've seen some evidence of the structure breaking to me it looks like there's a good chance we can continue that down to this and down to this support here and that again we're basically looking for the the opposite to happen for the market to start pushing higher again from there should this give way then I think then we'll come back down to this one and or in those again in terms of major you know what can actually do that this week you know in terms of European news we've got some industrial production data but you know that's you know that's probably not going to be as significant out of the euro zones that will be from the UK we have Chinese data which can potentially wobble things a bit but in terms of major marketing European data I would say this is probably not too much here in this week again it's going to be the the US election that probably drives sentiment for the remainder of the week so you know I would say probably what we're looking at here is Trump win good for euro dollar Clinton win negative for euro dollar and you know it's the same for the other currency pairs some of it's sterling so it's been very tricky to price retracement according to Fibonacci's because so many different charts have a different bottom in terms of where that where the where the flash crash ended arguably the better thing to do is just to use the kind of the recent more stable prices we've had as the as the as the proper low and kind of just discount the spike but it just so happened that I thought that actually worked out quite well this kind of support area here where the market really rolled over just happened to be the 61.8 we've taken out this little bit of structure here so I think that you know the signs are good that sterling's going to hold up a further we're finding support from the round number at now at 124 and a four hour chart nice little reversal candle here a little hammer pattern so this this could be it but I'd say you know down here is obviously you know this is the former form of resistance that we were had in place for a number of weeks a couple of weeks and so that would be a blog where you've got these other pivot points again for UK data to mainly just that manufacturing industrial production data you know more questions as to how has you know how's the UK performing in that would be that would be the tail end of Q3 because that data is a bit delayed you know how's it how's it been doing post post Brexit we do we do yourself have trade balance data as well on wednesday but as I said it's um industrial production data which would be interesting for the revisions to to the GDP data as well you know the backdrop to this is that GDP has been growing much faster than Bank of England predicted last week Bank of England had to lift their growth forecasts admit that they've been much too narrow on the UK economy and the effect of Brexit and and basically so backtrack on on cutting interest rates further so without the imminent cut of interest rates and more QE on the cards from the Bank of England you know that's there's not really a big reason to to drive sterling lower here obviously it's reacting to the political news that political news was only important in the context of what the Bank of England is going to do and it seems like the Bank of England aren't going to be too heavy having handed they've actually said they're going to be more neutral in terms of where policy goes said that they're not going to tolerate that higher inflation so you know when inflation data comes out that will be particularly important because if you start getting up towards that two percent target they've said they're not going to tolerate it for you know too much higher than that so that's when we start thinking actually maybe the vice is switching from neutral so they've said at the moment to actually a chance of a hike in interest rates and and that obviously you know that really would I think go a long way to underline this big down move that we have in pounds in an armed Brexit that's that's the general context of things at the moment we're still kind of putting in a bit of the face pattern and still scope given the skittishness politically for a push down into these areas and I think that actually could be an opportunity to switch to the yen this will be you know because of the sensitivity of on the yen to to treasuries this should be an interesting one to trade you know around the year selection and obviously it's going to the currency markets 24 hours it's going to be open when we know the result and I've zoomed in on quite a short-term chart here let me zoom out just to give that a bit more perspective here we are this is a triangle pattern we're we've been trying to break out and achieve the triangle objective which actually you know what it is let's try it on again basically 110 the round figure should this triangle break out as it should almost on the money we broke down through the 20 period 20 day moving average but we found support nicely at the 50 the 20 still nicely above the 50 I think we've kind of this uptrend should be intact and we're seeing that work out quite well not only the 50 day moving average but again from drop down to maybe four hour you know we can see it's this big reaction point here where we've seen the market work so we saw a big drop down through it but it wasn't able to be sustained we saw a reaction back and then that's when I have my um short out a short time frame because we could see this is the drop down through this long-term there support sort of market push up to it couldn't take out those old highs but dip down then it took out this high showing a bit of a kind of changing structure so if you take this low to this high it dropped down nicely to 61.8 um touched it you know pretty much precisely there and was rallied up through the 100% extension which initially caused a bit of resistance up and we're up with the sort of one eight one eight four fifty time handle now so it's looking quite positive for the end obviously that's assuming a Clinton victory in the short term you know the election's going to kind of dictate whether this this break this this trend can continue higher and break out up into it to 106 and make this way up up here you know for which actually get there you know that's when we're going back to looking at um the Fed and the potential for a hike in December and the Bank of Japan and uh all the rest of it so we're doing all right the time here I shall go before I forget I'm going to have a little term to show you copper because copper's been on an absolute tear in the last couple of weeks this is our daily chart um you know here was the bottom of the range down here we never got to that the the sort of interim support held up so you can see here was the swing low here swing low down there and um you know when the mark came down didn't didn't even need to break through it again it's just whooshed up higher but this this again even though obviously we we've gone on for us vertically from 210 up to 230 you know a really nice move um you know here we're in the resistant zone again so we're seeing the beginnings of a pullback um so this is an area which carries some sort of potential for opportunity so you know have a look what's happening um first signs of a breakdown on the hourly chart here let's see where this where this low forms 228 time being um this is a little interim breakdown um because we had quite a large run up here you know this will be the kind of main area we want to see a breakdown from obviously we're you know that would be much lower prices but it is that kind of 225 mark but if we could put a low down here come up and take it out again then maybe we'll get something a bit higher up but um again we haven't we don't know if this is the low yet but um you know start putting your fibs on and seeing maybe in the 61.876 area in around uh 230 let's see if the 230 can hold it kind of a retest if it starts to roll over again you know that's when we know there's longer term resistance areas playing out as we expect let's go straight to to gold just because again if you're not trading currencies I would say gold would be one of the other ones to play in and around the US election we've got a report on um on the possible effect of on gold but it's straightforward isn't it I mean gold is safe haven trump source of instability uh clinton not potentially as much and so you know general idea being here that is that gold is selling off um because of this fbi news from yesterday that uh you know they basically let clinton off the hook um for emails again and so it was that um a new fbi probe that swung the poles back in the favour of trunk now with a couple of days to go they're saying well there's nothing to worry about guys so that theoretically positive for clinton and again another example where you know this this move higher in gold is has had more legs than I expected it to have we've got the 61.8% on the chart but um you know I thought maybe it would roll over but before that but it hasn't done but you know it shows again the advantage of having some patience when trading because you know if you just waited for the for the old resistance uh the old support turned resistance and the 61.8% retracement of the down move has nicely worked out um and it's all working quite quite nice technical fashion because the markets now found support just below that no here are the old chi so first signs of the rebound should we get through this low you know it's just that this high here that you can see on the data the first swing in this kind of price right here in and around the 1275 mark so it's one two eight five it's gonna hold us up at the moment one two seven five on another move lower um you know this was a big dramatic move down in gold having come into this fairly substantial support at 1250 so you know again depending on the election result you know if Clinton gets in the the next reading from that is okay US election talk about the way uh monetary policy oh okay back to expecting a rate hike from the Fed in December their data is looking to be looking fairly fairly decent so you know maybe you can expect them to start hiking a bit more frequently next year and that would be a bad thing to do and um you know see a little move in fact below 1250 again so this this could be the beginnings of that so if you missed that initial move lower uh but if we do if we do get a pullback and again a bit like if you're planning a long on the stock market or a little dollar short euro um you know if you're expecting a Clinton win you know look for a retracing into a gap for potentially market to land again and we'll just round things quickly off here with oil so there's been a there's been an earthquake in Oklahoma so that's supporting all prices and lo and behold it's happened just as we've hit a significant support at the 45 mark on Brent you know I pointed out I'd put this very simple chart out on Twitter on Friday just saying that Brent is a key support and you know had a little room for it and starting to show signs of holding it that's not to say this sport necessarily is going to hold up for too long you know fundamentally what's driving oil at the moment is the prospect for a deal uh by OPEC and on Friday the Saudis have actually apparently threatened to totally go back on the deal and start ramping up production again should Iran not do their part so chances of a deal are actually not looking too good hence the sharp drop in prices nonetheless we're at this significant support level again it's a nature of well waiting for a daily reversal pattern if that's what you do um you know looking for another indicator pattern if you you know that's how you pin for your reversals or you know maybe drop into a shorter time frame um we've not taken out this structure high yet but I think you know we've had a kind of decent little pod there's quite a big reaction move here but then we did drop down again so you know if we can get a move up through here and then fall back you know that's when maybe you can start looking for opportunities again also incidentally if you are strictly a gold trade uh an oil trader rather um again this oklahoma situation clouds it slightly maybe the market bouncing off of uh um support and and uh or the rest of it but what I think you could probably say is that um oil is reacting more to a risk on environment um a potential of a Clinton victory than it is to um then it would be uh because of the golden oil is moving higher today um if it was reacting purely to the dollar which is also high today then oil should obviously appear to be lower so um looks like oil reacting more on reacting more to the kind of risk on environment rather than the dollar environment should Clinton get in good to get in looks like should be positive oil fake Trump get in should be negatable if um today's price actions of any guide but I think that's it um yep should be a very interesting week these uh you know the year selection only comes once every four years um when you've got plenty of information on that hot page as I mentioned um so let's let's see how it pans out and uh I'll talk to you at the same time next week to discuss it uh thanks very much it's just for signing up