 Hello, and welcome to this week's Applying Demand Forex Technical Analysis. My name's Leon Roe, Commentsy Trader and Trading Coach at Trading180.com. And if you're new, welcome, and if you're returning, welcome back. Just to let you know that we have, and I've put the chart analysis as well as the pairs timestamp in the description box below if you're watching this on YouTube. And I really do hope that you find my analysis useful every week. So let's get into the week ahead fundamentals and there may be a bit of sentiment as well. So in the week ahead, we have the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will decide on interest rates, but no changes are expected. So what is that saying that if there is a change, you're pretty going to expect some volatility in the market as the market has what would be referred to as priced in what the decision is when it comes to the price and what the market is expecting. So the money is made when there is surprises in the market. So other important releases include US factory orders, flash market PMIs that exist in the home sales, UK jobless rates, wage growth, retail sales and inflation, Eurozone flash market PMIs, Japan trade data inflation and Nikai manufacturing PMIs. Now, there's obviously a lot there, but there's only certain news releases and macroeconomic data that I focus on, which drives my buying and selling decision. And it's really anything to do with GDP overall. So trade balance, inflation and interest rates, because that is really what gives any country's currency its value. And if you want to go to the free fundamental analysis course, the link is in the description box below. This is what you'll get taken to and the fundamental and sentiment analysis trading course. These are the modules. You get a fundamental analysis spreadsheet as well, which just gives you basically the currency that I'm bullish bearish on and this is ratings. And this is just basically given strength, bullish is obviously definitely the buy and bearish is 100% sell. So I'll be updating this also as well today doing my fundamental analysis and just making sure that everything is as it should be. So click on a link in the description box below for that. Now, let's get into the chart analysis. And we're going to start off as we always do on the Dow Jones dollar index. And this is last week's analysis on my trading view channel. And you can follow along as well. Just look for if you go to trading view and go to top and you go to people and then type in my name Leon Roe and you'll get this analysis. And again, the links are in the description box below. So Dow Jones dollar index is a measure of dollar strength against the major currency, so the yen, the euro and the pound. So we'd come up pretty much into this supply zone. We also had a level of resistance there. And when we load the new bars, you can pretty much see what's happened this week. We've had a set off. So let's look at if anything has changed on a live chart. So on the dollar index, this is what we're looking at right now. And nothing really has changed, even though we have added another supply zone there as we've made lower highs, lower lows. And if you guys want to, as well, find out how exactly I determine areas of supply and demand. I have a few YouTube videos, again, links in the description box below. And they're also on the YouTube page and also at Trading180.com. And I go over the beginner's guide to supply and demand as well as how I plot supply and demand, supply and demand zones using candlestick charts. So made lower highs, lower lows. This week, again, is probably if the Federal Reserve is expected to really kind of hold rates, I probably would expect a sideways week to be fair. Again, it could have anything happen. I'm overall bullish still on the dollar. So if we do come down to probably this area here and we get some bullish price action, that's where I will be looking at buying the dollar. But if there are any shocks in the market, if prices do start to drift up, and then we get, for example, an interest rate cut, then I probably will be getting short like everybody else as that will be a definite shock in the market. So barring any surprises, I probably expect the price to kind of maybe just drift around. Now, is this a buying opportunity right now? Again, you'd have to decide not financial advisor, but me personally, I would probably prefer prices to come down into this area, further down into this area. If we do get some bullish price action in this area, this is the Dow Jones is just confirming what you would buy on the any of the dollar crosses. So you're looking for this price to start to increase on the Dow Jones dollar index. Then you probably get in long on the dollar on any of the other dollar crosses. So again, just in the bit of a bit of a range, this would be where the range is from where price has been contained from that low to that high. And this is where we are just above fair value. So anything below fair value is where or around fair value is probably where I'm looking to, you know, look for some confluence on other dollar crosses. So moving on, actually, matter of fact, if you are looking to get short, then obviously you'd be looking at, you know, these areas here, you know, for any kind of confirmation, short again, short here is there. Now, I'm going to leave it and leave it as it is. There's no added horizontal, diagonal or dynamic support and resistance to be fair. She there was a little one here. Right. And you're seeing it basically react off of that level there. So but again, I'll be looking for a deeper area, deeper demand zone right there. So now moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen last week, we did come down again into this, this demand zone, let's zoom in a little bit and we did react. So there was again an opportunity to get long. We had the demand zone first, so that's value. And then we also had the added confluence of, you know, resistance, resistance, traders, you know, getting in here and looking at, you know, that being a level of support. So net net, you should have demand traders getting in and demand orders anyway. And then obviously, traders who trade support and resistance getting in here as well. So that should be, you know, demand at every level. You should be asking yourself, why is there more? Why, why should there be more demand orders than supply? That's what we're looking at really is trying to understand why they're going to be more demand orders than supply from a technical analysis, fundamental and sentiment analysis and also from a psychological analysis perspective as well. And it's something that I cover in my course, which is capture pain relief location trading. But again, risk on risk being more on than off this week, I guess, or say last week, Japanese yen, but they made their monetary decisions and nothing really had changed. Again, dollar being a stronger currency. And you can see there was at least, you know, maybe just under 80, you know, 90 pips to be made if you could have got a decent entry. So let's go to the charts and have a look. So the yen pretty much say nothing's really changed to be fair. We could add, I guess we've made higher highs, higher lows, and we could add a demand zone in there as well. If you really wanted to, I am probably going to. I'll keep it as a matter of fact, I will keep it here. I'll keep that there. I don't like to, for supply and demand zones, to get a bit too messy on the chart. But I'll keep that there for now. And again, we're caught between really, I would say, this range here, this price low and that price high. So if you're looking to get short, what you would do is go down to a lower time frame and look for any entries on four hour. You know, even if you go lower, right, and look to see how much space you have to the downside. And it's a video I made earlier this week. I think it was Wednesday, Thursday on spatial awareness and just seeing how much space you do have to the downside and whether this trade is worth taking on the time frame that you trade. But if you are looking to get short on this currency pair meaning you think that the yen is going to get stronger and it's going to be more risk off sentiment, then you'd probably be waiting for a bit more of a pullback or I would anyway, before looking to get short. If you're looking to get long, I think this, this fresher area down here is probably the better risk reward scenario. So if prices do come down here into this area of demand, that's where for me is that it's probably the better trade on that currency pair. So I think those are your options from really for this week. And again, obviously if prices break through, then you're looking at there and then you're looking at, if prices break through here, that supply zone there, then the next supply zone is going to be really up at the 1134 level. So moving on to the dollar Swiss. And the dollar Swiss this week sold off, got a bit of profit taking. Now I'm looking to get long in this area here. And let's zoom in. So we've got a nice demand zone around here. And the dollar being the stronger of the two, in my opinion, fundamentally, I'm waiting for real prices to kind of drift further down before looking at getting long. If we're looking at the chart in real time, let's go to dollar Swiss, dollar Swiss. Here we go. What we want to see is prices kind of come down into this parity, one cent mark for the Swiss franc before looking at establishing any type of long positions. If you are looking to get long on the dollar, if it's sold up here, then you're probably looking at an area to try to take some profit. Where's price most likely to reverse? And if you sold up here, then your take profit is going to be a buy order. So they're going to be traders looking to take profit anywhere around here. That's going to add to the supply and demand equation. New traders getting in from a demand perspective, from a trend line perspective, from a horizontal support perspective, as well as the profit taking perspective if you sold up here. So net net, we should have some decent demand. But again, it depends on the fundamentals and sentiment, depending on obviously the news that happens this week. So just keep an eye out on that before making an entry. If you're looking to, again, sell or buy the Swiss franc, you'll be waiting for a bit of a pullback into this level before looking at any kind of short trades. What I'm going to do is I'm going to move that there. Just move this supply zone. Come on, come on, come on, come on, over to here. And that'll be where supply now is if we're making lower highs, lower lows. So those are your options. I really do like this lower level as well, this lower level of demand. So if that level fails, again, an entry around here, this is the level that I'm really, really interested in. This 0.99, putting from the six to the five to the half number is where I'll also be looking to establish some potential long positions. Moving on to the CAD. Dollar CAD and dollar CAD, the CAD probably increased in some strength this week. And it was because oil is on a bit of a tear. OPEC sanctions are trying to create supply issues and things like that. And sanctions on things like, I think it's Iraq still. And obviously Venezuela problems over there as well. So there are supply problems, which is adding to the oil supply and demand equation. So oil's been rallying. In fact, I was reading an article that was saying that Goldman Sachs thinks that it should rally a bit higher. So we could see, again, the push-up in oil, which would basically give an increase in, or should anyway, this highly correlated doesn't, it's not gospel. Nothing is gospel when or certain in the forex markets or in the markets in general. But generally, what you should see is if oil starts to increase in price, then the Canadian dollar should also respond to that. How it responds to it, we don't know. But it just gives that extra confluence when entering. Certain trade. So where are we this week? Get me sold off from a Sunday Monday. And now we're created a bit of a supply zone. So let's go to the Canadian dollar, no time on a live chart. So this is where I'd be drawing my supply zone. And if you do want to look for sell trades on this currency pair, you're looking for that kind of scenario, or you're looking for prices to go lower and then come back into what we would consider this to be a supply zone right here. If you're looking to be a buyer of the dollar, then the scenario you're looking for is something like this, where you have prices probably make a new high, pull back into this zone and then like that. Or you're looking backwards a little bit. You're looking for something like this and then pull back into evil one of these supply zones like that. So two scenarios to look for when you're looking at buying this currency pair and then buying the dollar. If you think the dollar is going to increase in strength, as well as the Canadian dollar, obviously increasing in strength and that would be a short in this pair or waiting for prices to really come back down into these zones right here from a demand perspective. So that's it for the dollar CAD, looking at the New Zealand dollar, US dollar. And zoom in a little bit and see what happened this week. So we broke through this supply zone here, the New Zealand dollar increased in strength. And what I want to see really is prices come up to a higher level of supply before looking to short this currency pair. So let's go to a chart and have a look. So demand was actually quite strong in this area here, in this 0.675 level, as we can see. Now prices start to come up to this area here, which is looks like a level of support as well. As we've had prices touch that several times. So you've got resistance. So let's say support. I meant resistance, by the way. So resistance, resistance, resistance here, there, there. For me, this level is just a bit too obvious. If everyone else is taking this trade, then I'll rather sit on my hands rather wait for a fresher area of supply or fresher areas of supply before looking at getting short in this currency pair. Preferably the absolute highs. If we do see this type of price action, then you want to be a buyer of the New Zealand dollar, then you're waiting for a really price to come back into. This would be created a demand zone right here, as you've made higher highs, right? So you're waiting for a level to come back into higher lows before looking at buying or, again, if we're looking at this being a decent area of demand. Then we've got a cluster literally like here, here, here. Don't really worry about seeing things like this because how we differentiate demand zones is through things like horizontal support and resistance, diagonal support and resistance. And even what we would term is dynamic support and resistance, which are moving averages. So if prices do come down anywhere into this area here, we've got confluences of 21, 50, 100, and 200. Then we just look to, that's how we can separate these demand zones. So don't get, don't think to yourself, oh, that's a whole massive area of demand. Well, it is when you think about it. But again, not all demand zones are created equal, right? So this is how we separate the areas. So that being said, yeah, so our shorts really are pretty much of price to come up to this area. You can get in short from this 69 level I'll probably be waiting for some sort of potential manipulation or prices to come up a bit higher anywhere within this zone here before looking at getting in on the short side. And again, long side, you're looking for higher, higher lows, higher highs and pullbacks into those areas. So moving on to the pound dollar. And the pound dollar this week, if you guys managed to buy this currency pair, I didn't buy the pounds, but if you did, again, power of demand at this area here with confluence with some horizontal support, probably also had, and I didn't put it on here, but you had some diagonal support as well, I think. But let's see what obviously happened this week. And you can see now that prices did react off of that demand zone there. We've come up to taking out really this lower supply zone and we've touched at the higher supply zone and we're reacting off of that. This currency pair is sentiment driven at the moment because of obviously Brexit. And I think with no deal being taken off the table by Theresa May and Parliament, it adds a lot more certainty when it comes to what potentially deal is going to take place. So if you take uncertainty, a lot of uncertainty off the table and you've only got maybe remain or article 50 extension, then the markets can factor in and start to look more certain, it is more certainty in the future, even if the extension is for the next three months, two weeks, six months a year. Again, there's some sort of certainty in the market which is driving British pound sentiment. So let's go to charts and just update them a little bit. So you've got, I'll delete that. I'll also delete that one as you've touched the higher supply level. And we do have some demand coming in here as well. So again, what we're looking at is if you're probably, you know, looking to get short, you'll be looking for probably some sort of retest of this supply zone, right? Again, the higher, the better. Let's add some more supply zones onto this. So we've got a bit of supply right here as well, just above that area there. I'll keep it like that for now. Move this area across. You can see that this level of support and resistance horizontal, you can see where you have support, resistance, bit of support and resistance in here, resistance, bit of support, prices came down, acted as a bit of support there in that area, there in resistance. So this higher level, this 1.3, 450 level is gonna be probably one of the best levels to try and look for any kind of shorting opportunities. Again, to keep your eye on sentiment and the closer we get to deadline day, the 29th end of March, or you just may wanna just sit on your hands and just watch it and wait it out because it will be, say it will, but there could be a lot of volatility, a lot of whipsawing, stopping traders out who are going long and short. So maybe the smartest thing to do as we get closer is to just sit on your hands and not necessarily trade the pound or the euro for that matter. But again, if you wanna be a buyer of this currency pair or a pullback, you're looking at prices coming down into this area here before looking to be a buyer. Is there any horizontal support and resistance in that area, probably looking at something like this? Yeah, I'd probably say something like that. Happy with that, just bring this down maybe slightly. But yeah, I think that's pretty much it. So you're looking at the 1.3.1 level. It's more confluence from a pullback perspective. And those are pretty much your options. You also did have the, am I looking for, sorry, wrong one. Looking for parallel channel and you've got there. So you had, again, support there. And then when price came down into the demand zone, ended up touching. And then we had prices go to the upside. So next on the list is the euro dollar. The euro dollar this week and a bit of a reversal. So again, bounced off of this lower long-term demand zone. Now I'm looking for prices, you know, for really a short in this area. I know this is gonna be a popular area. A lot of trades are gonna be looking at this area to try and look for shorts as well. Around this 1.13, 1.14 level. But again, with the euro being driven by sentiment, just be aware that this is gonna be, this is partly sentiment, this trade is gonna be partly sentiment driven as well. It's not gonna be purely based off of fundamentals. And we know that fundamentally the US dollar is definitely way ahead of the euro. Again, in times of uncertainty, there's a few things you can do. One of them being reduce your risk size. And the second one is just stay out of the market. You know, you don't have to trade every single level, right? So, you know, my thing would be probably just maybe reduce your risk size if you normally go for, you know, half a percent or 1% then just half that and you know, speculate and maybe just, you know, you can always add into the trade after if prices start to go your way. So, looking at the euro dollar trying to add, put his port resistance levels, I can't really see anything new. But what I will add is where you've got a level of diagonal resistance within this area here, right? So again, adds to the confluence. Horizontally is a bit, let me have a quick look. All right. So I don't really like forcing things to fit. If you know what I mean, if it's not that obvious, there is some here, there is some here, but it's not fantastic level. So I'm gonna leave that matter of fact. It's not a great level. Again, there's some resistance if we're looking at it fully from that perspective here. So you've got, you know, prices kind of bounce off of here, come up here, then into here. So there is a bit of resistance in there, but generally you can see where it's kind of just chopped around and again, resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance, bit of choppiness. It's not necessarily the clearest, but I'll put it on there anyway. All right, you've got resistance there. Then you've got resistance here where prices did move away sharply from that level, right, supply, and then you've got some demand in there. So I'll keep it there for now. So overall, this is where looking to get short, if that doesn't work out then, I can to get short up here. But again, just keep in mind that, you know, the euro's gonna be sentiment driven as well. And again, it could be some surprises with the US dollar. So moving on to the Euro Yen. And the Euro Yen this week, again, came down into this demand zone. We've had some bullishness. Obviously we've probably Brexit. No deal being taken off the table. You know, that's driven the Euro higher risk sentiment for the Yen, obviously being more diminished. So yeah, at the moment, I think you're probably looking at, if you're looking to short this currency pair is looking for any kind of shorts into this supply zone here. Let's go to the chart. So again, I think risk will have to be off. I do like this from a technical setup. Yeah, you've got this nice, you know, move in and supplies is pretty strong around here. So if you do get, you know, a sell trade or a sell setup within this supply zone and you think that the Japanese Yen is going to get, you know, stronger risk office coming into the market then overall this is a decent technical setup. I like it from a technical setup perspective. Again, if you're looking to buy the Euro, you'll be waiting for one of two scenarios, either a bit of a pullback and then a move higher and then move back into that zone or you'd be looking for a move really back down into this demand zone. And then you would look for a fresher areas of demand before looking at getting long. Long. So that's that, moving on to the Aussie dollar and Aussie dollar. You did have a bit of bullishness coming to the market this week. As you can see, last week I did say I was going to keep this here, this demand zone and you can see what's pretty much happened and we reacted off of this supply zone here. So for this week, pretty much in between this supply zone and this demand zone really just a tight range so far and depending on really what happens with the dollar, both the US and the Australian dollar, not sure if there's any major new Australian news. I'll probably check a little bit later on, but if you are looking to get short, then now's pretty much the opportunity you'd be looking at some sort of bearish price action. It has touched it for a couple of times to be fair. So if you are going to get in short, you'd probably be looking for price to come above that 0.71 area before looking to get short. If you're looking to get long on this currency pair, again, it'd be prices really coming down to this area of demand right here. So that's pretty much where your opportunities lie this week. Again, if you're looking to get short by the US dollar, then it's your second opportunity. If you are looking to, again, buy the Australian dollar, if this fails, it'll be at this level of support. I think there's nothing really else on that. Let's have a look here. So you've got the 100 and the 200 EMAs and SMAs above that. Let's see where the 21s and the 50s are. So you've got the 21s bouncing off that dynamic resistance there as well. So you've got some confluence there as well. And now moving on to the last currency pair, which is the Aussie yen and Aussie yen this week. Again, with risk being more off, sorry, more on, less off. Again, you've got the push up with the Australian dollar. And I like looking at this pair as a gauge of risk sentiment. So you can see that obviously risk was on. And unfortunately didn't get any kind of opportunity on this one, but it was a decent buy if you could get in from a risk-reward perspective. Now we're in a bit of a fair value from that high to that low, just above. So if you're looking at being a buyer, you'd be looking for price to really come down. And again, probably more of a fresher area would be this 77 round number before looking to get long. If you're looking at getting short, just be aware that this level was touched several times. So if you do get some bearish price action, just understand that you are susceptible to what is known as stop hunting. And really a stop hunting setup is where stops build up above an obvious level. And obviously you're gonna be putting your stops where? Here, just like everybody else, everyone else is seeing this level of resistance, resistance, resistance, resistance. And then what ends up happening is you end up getting stopped out, all your stops get taken out and then prices end up going in the direction. So just be careful if you're taking this setup as well. Also the more times the level of supply is touched or demand is touched, the weaker it becomes as well. So after third, fourth touches, you wanna pretty just reduce your risk size as well when it comes to this type of scenario. So if there's getting more risk on coming into the market, stop market's rallying, gold potentially selling off, then Australian dollar is a buy. If the stop market starts to sell off and gold starts to increase, then Japanese yen is gonna be the currency potentially to buy. So that brings us to the end of this week's video. Hope you enjoyed it. If you do have any questions, please email me at infoatrading180.com as well as you can email me. Your comments are definitely appreciated. Thank you very much for supporting this channel. Like, subscribe, share as well. I really do appreciate everything that you guys say in the feedback and it does give me a lot of encouragement when it comes to if I'm on the right path and what is that you guys do want to hear and see. So I hope you all have a great trading week and take care.