 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week 17 may not feature the flashiest teams. It's no big cheese game outside of Phil's bangles There's no big cheese game. There's no big Eagles game stuff like that, but Patriots Dolphins pretty big game for playoffs bucks Panthers pretty big game for playoffs Jets Jets Seahawks kind of big for playoffs too So we've got some intriguing games despite the fact. They're not like household type teams We're gonna break down some of the bigger games this week and also talks and bills bangles at the end to give Tom a little reprieve Tom Vecchia swinging by to break down these games and his thoughts on them to get you some good bets or a Fandall sports book for Week 17, this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sanis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Tom Evacchio check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom You can find his work over at number fire calm Tom. Happy holidays to you. Happy week 17. How you doing today? I'm doing good. Thanks for having me a happy holidays. Happy week 17. It's certainly an interesting week Yeah, I think you'd say it's the best way to put it between this week and next week what we're gonna be seeing from the teams There's a lot to get to it's like it's kind of like a beauty is in the eye of the beholder kind of thing because There was a tweet last week that was like, okay on Sunday There are there's only one game featuring two teams above 500, which is I think accurate still I believe that's accurate, but like I don't know. There are a lot of other Important games that are still to be played So even though they might not be like the most high profile There's still some pretty fun ones like, you know, Dolphin's Patriots is kind of a clunker. I'm not gonna lie But it's still an important game for the playoffs. I could have put Packers Viking there, too I forgot to you know talk about that one as well, but still some decent games. So as long as you're okay Diving the dumpster a bit. It's a fun slate. Not honestly, Tom We're not above that, right? No, absolutely not. I mean, I think that like you can find a ray of motivation for any any game any match of like 49ers Raiders At face value doesn't seem great, especially after a car got benched yesterday But the 49ers can still claim the second seed if I believe in the in the NFC. So it's like, all right Yeah, I'm not like thrilled to be like seeing those highlights or like watch that but like the 49ers still need to play and win Yeah So there you can find like a part of each game that is at least interesting You definitely can and we're gonna break down some of the some of these and get the Tom's read on the bigger ones to break down week 17 in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering this spread Wherever you get your podcasts our college football semifinal preview went up yesterday with dr. Ed Feng getting his read on oh house day versus georgia and michigan versus tcu his read on those Savior bets some player props for those games and more find that by searching for covering the spread wherever you get Your podcast and you can also go to the fan dual youtube page to find that there Looking to get more out of this nfl season Well, now is the perfect time to download fan dual america's number one sports book because new customers get a no sweat first bet Up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win just download the fan dual sports book app It is safe secure and super easy to use then you can bet on everything from the money line to touchdown scores Or over under yardage plus fan dual even lets you combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout With a same game parlay. So don't miss your chance to get your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 in free bets when you join fan dual make every moment more with fan dual and official sports betting partner of the nfl Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only Refund issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fan dual dot com gambling problem call 1800 gamble or visit fan dual dot com slash rg in arizona 1800 next step or text next step to five three three four two In connecticut 180 8 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in y oming in kansas 180 522 4700 in kansas ks gambling health dot com in louisiana 1877 770 stop in mariland md gambling health dot org in new york 1877 8 hope and y or text open y or in west virginia go to 1800 gambler dot net Now you mentioned motivation tom and that's going to be a key thing Not just this week but also next week because there are some teams with an eye towards the future and that future could be the playoffs Or it could be week 18 uh for teams like the titans and the jags So i want to know what your process is determining How to handle those teams because like the jags have said they're going to play their guys I think the betting markets reflect some uncertainty there because i've got the jags here by eight in that game And it's four four and a half so a little bit uh A little bit unnerving to see that for sure. So what steps do you go through determining? What level of trust to have in these teams? I mean the first the easy answer would just be to read and you know read whatever information is available because ultimately that's That's all we have it's it's not like we know like the the true path these teams are going to take or like the The true lineups and inactives and actives that we're going to be seeing from each of these teams But at first it's just just to read it's like okay. What teams are in a spot this week What are their actual playoff scenarios? What are their actual playoff clenching scenarios? Once i get a good idea on that which is you know relatively clear at this point It's like okay the titans don't actually need to win tonight versus the cowboys That thus they listed Derek Henry is doubtful tonight They don't need to win this game tonight They can get a little bit healthier take this extended by and go into next week with that chance to win So he's not going to be playing. What are we expecting from the titans offense? It's probably not a lot of points tonight So go through that like match by match up and say okay as I said the raiders they benched car The 49ers still have something to play for the giants still need to win They're going up against the Colts and that's not a spot that the Colts need to be winning So go through each match up and say what do we know? As of now have the lines moved in any which way are they moving opposite of what I thought they would move based on This potential motivation and then make my Make my bets off of that or simply stay away because I'm like if there's a big difference for eight points to four and a half For what it is for the Jags like you I don't know how I would read that at a certain point I have to say I'm not comfortable with that. So it's just a stay away. Yeah reading is the key thing I think that's the most important thing here and with the Jags I was uneasy on Tuesday when I saw the four point gap But well the three and a half point gap now because it did move to four and a half Well, I was a bit uneasy when I saw that because I was like, okay I know they can if they're in week if they win a week 18 they're in The reason why I actually have more confidence in them now is not just because it went to four and a half Which means some people who may have information are you know taking the lane the four there? but it also says to me that I rather they have a wild card chance still like it's like a six point eight percent chance Where if they win this week but lose next week they could still get in via a wild card So I think they have more more motivation than Maybe it's being billed as So I think there is enough there to still feel okay about the Jags specifically But like you said it comes down to reading first that is kind of the key thing that you want to do And decide you know Is there enough motivation here to do it? Looking over at 538 if the Jags win this week and then lose next week They still have a nine percent play option chance. Okay, so I think for them. That's why I've felt more confident, but again a There aren't a lot of times you get a three and a half point gap between your number in the market So that that was unnerving is the word that I would use for that for sure I would also say this is the time of year where Especially next week you'll start to see If anyone's you know following sources on twitter like you'll start to see like oh players have contracted How many how many yards they need so it's like that stuff's like not easy to find finding like contract incentives and Oh, this player needs like 73 more yards and then he hits his contract incentive for an extra like 250k or wherever it is like That is also important and you know, we've seen Brady like help out some of the receivers Gronk You know over the past few seasons like get him to those marks and finding that info was very tough Um, but that is also another step that I would take so it's it's reading It's like can I find any of it number one? Or they actually in a good spot to get that done right and then it's like we're playing the dynamic of like Okay, this team has nothing to play for they're locked into their their seed and they're only going to play their receivers like half the game in week 18 Right, but they don't this player also needs to get like 90 yards like well Motivation is a player level thing not just a team level thing Um, I think that's important and I think shifter usually has adam shifter usually has like a post on the espn Though outline incentives, uh, you want to read that as soon as it goes up because markets will move based on that So, uh, it's one of those where you want to be ahead of that for sure Let's dig into some games where both teams have a lot of motivation beginning in Foxboro for the dolphins and the patriots the patriots are three point favorites here total is 41 and a half and The buzzkill here is a teddy bridge water is going to start uh with two a tongue of aloha Unfortunately back in concussion protocol, but the dolphins still need to win this game. You know, they kind of have to go on So tom to you can teddy do enough to help the dolphins push for a win in this game Or at least a cover at minus three or plus three Uh This is probably one of the toughest games on the slate. I I think Looking at this from a team perspective. I think we're gonna see a lot of running the ball Uh, you know, teddy did look okay in that one start It was against the the vikings, right? We had 300 yards and two touchdowns for like 329 yards I think he came off the bench so it wasn't technically a start but scholar tomson got hurt I believe uh, it's weird because Petty's actual start he played one snap and he played a lot of snaps in the one game He didn't start it's a very confusing team, right? So he was there for the game against the bangles and then minnesota Yeah, but he looked okay in that game. Obviously the Viking second area is is terrible. Uh, and it's not the same as new england I think that we're gonna see a lot of running The ball in this game I also think that the deep shots probably won't be there for tyreek So I think that miami is going to try and like manufacture touches for him Like jet sweeps a little like quick pitches or like bubble screens or whatever it is just to get tyreek the ball So I think it's going to be a lot of running the ball on both sides It's not like mac jones inspires a lot of confidence either Um, so I think if miami can get the touches in the right areas of the field to tyreek To just get him the ball and then let him run They'll have a shot But if the patriots can hold him down, I don't see that this turning into a shootout I don't either which is why I took the under at 42 and a half. It's 41 and a half now But uh, my numbers and I this total model is new which means it could suck But um, we're in the process of back testing now. So maybe it we'll see if it sucks, but I've got it at 36.4 Which seems really low and it's it's again You're always a little concerned when you're a lot off in the market, but I feel like if you're betting this game just take the under. Um, what's your take on live betting? Because I I'm in minnesota right now. So I can't so that's my take but Because I've been Live betting some of the the pad scheme specifically unders pretty heavily this year when they played Uh The jets and when they played the lions Yeah, they beat the lions. They had lines at three points or whatever was Where it was like 41 and there was like 38 and there was like 35 and like these numbers are still too high right, so I doubt your your brand new total model has anything built in for life, but absolutely not. This is one of the games that i'm going to Absolutely have my eye on okay comes to live betting because If the core backs can't get it done New england's defense is still pretty good on and if the dolphins aren't able to move the ball like this The game that screams like 17 to 7 or like right one to three Right My concern is the Patriots have scored like eight defensive touchdowns this year and i'm like that's a really good way to screw it under So, uh, we'll see on that, but I feel like if you want action in this game I think the best route for doing so is via the under based on at least what my numbers are saying The game I have no read on uh is carolina tampa bay So i'm gonna lean on you here tom. Uh, tampa bay is a three point favorite here A total is 40 and a half and the panthers, you know, look a little feisty with sam darnellet quarterback He's been okay. Uh, they've been able to run the football, but hey this buck's defense Pretty good to stop in the run too. So how do you see this game playing out? Uh, unfortunately, I see another under you'd like to think that we'd get a Like the I think the days of the nfc south shootouts are over Yeah, like we used to have those for a while. Uh, this feels like another under Uh, this feels like we're gonna be seeing another another good bit of running specifically from Uh, the panther side of things tampa is horrible at running ball this year We just see brady with so so many passing attempts on a nightly basis for us to stay on a weekly basis um This game is is one of the probably the games I've the least interested besides arizona and lana I think this is probably one of the worst games Because every other game I think is at least interesting Saints eagles is interesting browns commanders is at least interesting from the commander side of things But this game it's under its box um It's over brady on passing attempts as I've gone to consistently this year and then Like mike evans redemption versus caroline instead of dropping those too long touchdown passes he had in whatever week it was Yeah, that would be that would be the spot like mike evans anytime touchdown Yeah, it's so hard to trust him right now because like This is like a watch the tape bro kind of take but like just seems I don't know like if something's up or what but he doesn't seem like mike evans He seems a little bit like the whole team seems kind of lackadaisical Honestly, it's the best way to put it. He doesn't seem like sharp office cuts And I seem like I have the utmost respect for mike evans like he's awesome So it's not like uh, I'm just wondering if something's up with the team because like they all seem checked out Despite the fact they're fighting for a playoff spot in this game And I think the reason why I'm Pretty comfortable in staying away from this one is my numbers do disagree here Uh, one of them shows a bit of value in carolina other one shows uh tampa bay by 5.6 that one's a little bit more aggressive on tampa bay because it tries to assume that if you have like Really bad late down efficiency it will regress more towards the mean because that can be super super spiky And they've been awful on late downs this year And like will they get better? I don't know I I can't At this point with the way they've looked I can't tell you I think the reason another reason why I wouldn't want to capitalize on that that model showing value value in the box is You know, maybe the panthers are just better with sam darnell I have a big adjustment upward for them in there because their late down success rate was like 32 Uh, it is like 32 for the full season, but when darnell's play has been much better. So I don't know man. I think it's it just leads to be like if you have if you don't affirm read on it Just uh, feel free to stay away and I would say enjoy the game, but I'm not sure we're doing that here I would like a few extra yards for mike evans Back in the summer I wrote about over uh his over on season long receiving yards. Yeah Which is is like super close. I have to I have to double check after last week after the holiday of The monday the sunday night game. I should say yeah of where that lies, but um Yeah, this game doesn't really move the needle for me You know what the number was for evans Uh, I'm pretty sure it was 10,050 and a half to 10,000 1,050 and a half. Okay, uh, he would need about like 70 per game because it's 915 right now I think that this could be a spot where brady definitely gets him above a thousand because he's at a thousand every year Right, right. So and right, you know going into 10 over the summers It was you know 10 50 and there was the The uncertainty around godwind starting the season healthy It's like, okay, they signed russell or they you know, they get russell gauge and then they said coolio And I wasn't convinced Yeah, it seems gross they're the you mentioned the brady pass attempts, which is great for like prop betting is over a pass Attempts it does not lead to dfs goodness for them because it's not k dotons at like 0.6 yards per route run Since their bi-week evans 1.1 I think godwinds at like lenny leads them in yards per hour since they're bi 1.8 If we're running back leads in yards per route run Not a great team. So we're going to leave that that game aside and let's talk about a more fun game On monday night, we got the bills at the bangles bills are one and a half point favorites here The total is 49 and a half and the bangles Been scorching it on offense recently. Um, they've been dealing with injuries whether it be the jamar chase injury or T Higgins Tyler Boyd getting hurt in game can they Do the dang thing here and keep their hopes it's slim hopes but hopes alive getting that first round by Yeah, I think that this is A game that is going to highlight what the like the best of the nfl And like to me this game like looking at the slate overall and then seeing this game at the end It reminds me of shawshank redemption where Andy Dufresne like crawls through the sewage and then is and then at the end is like freed and there's that Like staring up It's like we have to go through all of these bad games to get to like an absolute marquee game On monday night And I think it's probably going to be one of the best games of the year Two elite quarterbacks playing an elite level two amazing offenses Great offensive option on both sides with it with super super high motivation Like it's basically the perfect storm for what we want to again highlight like what the best of the nfl is I personally have a ton of interest in this game I'd be on the the bangles in this game and the over not many prime time games I take the over I don't think I'm taking an over on any prime time game this season Uh, but the offensive potential is super high the dynamic receivers on both sides present I would say endless amount of opportunities when it comes to profetting Yeah, absolutely. So you like the bangles you said do you want the one and a half or do you want the money line? Money line at fandal is minus 102 You could get that a plus money as recently as last night at some spots But would you want the security of the points or you're just taking the money line there? I would just take the money line there go for with with joey b You know there The points are interesting especially considering Their field go kicking as of late and some of their extra point kicking as of late specifically Last week as we saw wasn't uh, wasn't as sharp as I'd like it to be Um, you know their defense is certainly exploitable in certain spots and josh Allen is a quarterback that can get that done against any single defense Um, so I just take the shot on the money line Just just roll with what with what I believe is that they can be the best team in the afc You can still get plus 105 at bet mgm. It's moved to at least even money or worse in a lot of spots But it's still plus 105 there Um, which is pretty good. I think I talked on tuesday about how I like the bangles money line as well I think that that's Honestly like If you look at different week five on which is when they changed their scheme and this is not cherry picking because week five They stunk so this is not cherry picking. Uh, if you look from week five on they've been Like the best offense in football question mark like They've been insane and that includes the entire time jamar chase is out. So they've got chase healthy. They've got higgins healthy They've got um, trend urwin is actually playing really well and eating an entire boy's playing time Which is kind of odd to see like and they're running the football effectively, which they were not doing before either so I think the bangles are legit good and I was looking at the super bowl market And it's tough to like get super jazzed up the bangles and eight to one because Their odds getting the first round by are low if they they'd have to beat the bills this weekend and have the cheese lose One of their final two games. I don't recall what their week 18 matchup is but they get the the broncos this week So they need the cheese to lose either the broncos matchup or against jared sitam next week So their odds are getting the first round by are not high But like as we saw last year they can tear through it without effort without even You know without a first round by and still play well the cheese get the raiders Yes, jared sitam. What could go wrong? Uh, you know, just back up the bringstruck on the raiders in that one um so I haven't bit on the bangles and eight to one yet um But I think it's at least interesting because I think they're good enough to justify interest in that market when they are They have the fifth longest odds behind the 49ers, uh the eagles the chiefs and the bills I think they're well within that discussion. The question is is would it come down to how How this week shakes out for Next week's playing time like would sit next week is the question. No because they can't lock up the first round by um So they will need to play next week because they don't own the tiebreaker over either the bills or the bangles Because both of those teams beat them in the regular season. So let's say the cheats win this week. They would be 13 and 3 bills would also Bills and bangles would both be 12 and 4 so they both be a game behind But if either of them won they'd have the tiebreaker with the cheese So maybe if they got a big in the second half they'd feel the rest of the homes They could ensure they'd win But I feel like next week all three of these teams will Be going hard one situation where they wouldn't is that the bangles lose This week they could rest guys the next week, but I guess actually they have baltimore next week and baltimore could still win the division So, um, I think we're getting full gas for all these teams It's like I said at the beginning like just reading and understanding. Yeah all of the like permutations Yeah, it's like I always like see it in my mind is like one of those like Charts that like diverge. It's like, okay, if they win, this is what happens Then week 18 they play this team that all they also need to win this our brains are just flow charts at this point That's all they are just like understanding these because it does impact betting markets not for only a week's week basis But if you have a chance for the future for the conference, I have a bet on the bangles to win the division which I spoke about I know I said a while ago It's cost 350 it was before their first match with the ravens week five and they got Just they lost that game. So I felt very stupid, but it was plus 350 I think at that time and feels pretty good now after after lamar got ruled out Yeah, I said to our group. I said, why is why are the bangles still plus money to win The division when lamar has been ruled out with a pcl injury, whatever it is, right He is uh, they're minus 250 now. So it looks like lamar is probably not going to play this week either So That game might wind up being meaningless next week at the bangles win and the ravens lose and I I don't know. I want to see healthy lamar for the playoffs So I wouldn't mind if that happened, but I also selfishly want that game to matter For next week. I'd like to lock up that future and not worry about that, but You know, um, it'll be interesting either way. All right. Let's open up the board for you, tom Across the rest of week 17. Where else you see in value this week? Uh, let's start with tonight And that would be Dalton Schultz Dalton Schultz over 38 and a half receiving yards I'm not expecting a whole lot from tonight's game. I don't think I don't think many people are But uh titans dead last in the lead for the most receiving yards allowed to tight ends Uh, their secondary overall is very bad. It's a spot that we've been continuously attacking Um, don't see this as a very exciting game. Don't see this as a very high scoring game But Schultz over receiving yards. He's and surprisingly If my Number is correct that you could double check this real quick or We'll double check it at some point Schultz actually has the highest red zone target chair on the on the cowboys Oh, it's like since dat came back. He's like 36 right and I think overall in the season it's 24 Somewhere around there higher than lamb Uh, which is certainly very interesting. So he's sitting at plus 230 for a touchdown tonight So Horrible against tight ends. It's only 38 and a half receiving yards his touchdown odds are up at 230 I like Schultz tonight. So that was that would be the first spot that I'm looking again brady over passing attempts, uh, it's certainly interesting Uh, when it comes to the lions and the bears I think that this is a game that again We could see some points as we saw on the first time the first time that they played Uh Inside the dome, which is obviously great to see there's no props posted for this game But certainly would be looking to something along the lines of jerry goff passing attempts passing yards St. Brown somewhere along there. I think this is a game that we could see some more fireworks DJ shark alt over receiving yards of 140 plus. Yeah um, and then The giants in the colts game 38 and a half over under Again doesn't move the needle for me Nick foals going to be back out there for the colts Not something I have interest in watching literally any second of except if it's on red zone But the giants have High motivation as as anyone as any team in the league they have a lot of motivation to win Uh, because the commanders are playing the browns, which I I think is a winnable matchup And that game I just don't have a read on because We're going to be seeing wence back out there. Yeah, but from the giant's perspective Can they like can they get this done against a team? They should be able to beat like They should not lose to the colts. So what does that mean? Okay, that means that they're gonna be giving the ball to barkley Maybe we're gonna see some richie james out there We're probably not going to be seeing daniel jones throwing the ball 30 some odd times because that's not a spot that he He has been doing it as of late a little bit. Yeah, but it's not a spot that they've gone to a whole lot this season So whatever safe on props Combined rushing and receiving That's the spot that I'll look uh, initially Without any update some updates can come out today or tomorrow about these players resting or not resting And that'll change things but those are spots initially looking this week Well, they can clinch this week if they win Um, and I think they like jones There was a locker room clip of him talking about how much they wanted to clinch at home So I think they have super high motivation to get it done this week because they want to get it done I think they clinch if they win this week and they'd be locked into the sixth seed I think potentially if that were to happen because they hold the tiebreaker over washington I don't think they have it over to trope But like they've got they've got some good tiebreaker scenarios in their favor So I think they could lock it up with a win this week and they put the eels next week which I mean I think the eagles motivation is higher than people give a credit for because if they lose out The cowboys could win out and they'd be in a bad spot So I think like there was I was talking about miles sanders on twitter last week Someone was like, yeah, they have no motivation to play. I'm like Buddy 99% is not 100% and that would that was their odds of winning the division getting the first from a five It's not 95% now. It's still high, but it's not perfect. So I think there is actually a lot of motivation there and uh for the eagles despite, you know The fact they're sitting hurts because they should but I think there is still a lot of juice for them Yeah, so the so the giants definitely a spot that I'm looking um outside of that And told props get posted and we and we really see some numbers I mean, I would certainly look to Mike white Yeah me back Uh 42 and a half For jet seahawks. I feel like that game could be a bit of a shootout We've seen to the seahawks get into some crazy games and then I don't know stittum to throw to throw an intersection skid them under Those are those are probably the spots that I'll be looking this week. Yeah One game we did not discuss because I talked about it a lot on tuesday was the packers vikings it weirdly that those actually That game has moved against me. I had the under at 46 and a half. It's not 48 and a half Clearly I've got a bad read on that. I also did like the vikings plus three So if you were tuning in looking for a read on that game talked about that more tuesday So you can go back to that there, but the numbers that liked where the vikings plus three I still think 48 and a half is way too high despite the fact it has moved against me But I think if you're looking for some thoughts in those games, those be the ones that I have I do like the vikings plus the points the money line is short into plus 156 It was plus 162 so not as much value there anymore But still enough to be enticing and then the under at 48 and a half both ones I would be turning to there That's all we got for week 17 here on covering the spread as mentioned A lot of words start to sort through for this week. It is not a A Slate lacking complexity, but tom. I appreciate your time for swinging by breaking down your thoughts on that And good luck to you in week 17. We'll talk to you once again soon. Thanks for having me Check out tom on twitter at dfs underscore tom I am on twitter at jim sonnis want to thank you all for tuning in Good luck to you throughout this week. Check out our semifinal podcast of that fang check out the week 17 First look and power rankings update also in the same feed by searching for Covering the spread have a happy new year. We'll talk to you once again next week on tuesday for a four show week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network