 Well thank you very much for the kind introduction, this of course is not something which occurred so often that a chairman of a Green Party introduces a well conservative or at least someone who comes from the conservative camp, well but you said quite rightly that it is necessary to have close connections and even a reconciliation that has always been my view between business views and ecological, even idealistic perceptions and opinions and that was something which coined my political life. Before I came to King's College as you rightly pointed out, I have been 16 years in the Bundestag and deputy minister in the first Merkel government and we always tried especially in the 90s to have to bring the Greens out of the isolation that they were in the first years in the German parliament. Nobody wanted to talk to them and we thought it was an important tendency within our society so we reached out younger people as we were in parliament because we said climate change is something that affects all of us and well you can also make a lot of money with green technologies with energy efficiency with windmills and solar collectors so it is also a business case and this policy in my point of view more or less characterizes Germany's politics in this century in the last decade right or left they all went for a political attitude which tries to bring both parts closely together but that's not the topic I just wanted to respond and say how I really believe it is important that ecological opinions and economic opinions have to be reconciled and I'm sure you do that in Ireland in the best possible way the subject today is global mega trends and I would like to start with with one global mega trend which I think is is striking and that is what I would call the diminished salience of global climate change policy there is a change of paradigm while a few years ago climate change was the number one issue when people discussed energy today the climate change has a backseat in definitely in global politics but even in countries who are convicted who are with all their heart supporters of green energies and believe in climate change the issue has been downgraded why is that it is because of the global financial and economic crisis people have other problems right now than climate they have the problem of jobs the enterprises have the problem of lower energy of low energy prices everybody looks for energy costs which are affordable to a family so it's a sustainability not only in in ecological terms that is needed but also it has to be sustainable vis-a-vis your economic system your wealth and and that is why I think we have a more balanced approach today I wouldn't go so far and say that climate policy will will leave the agenda no we will be by we will be reminded because of storms and floods that climate change is going on and there is a catastrophe somewhere out for mankind so we have to deal with it but other problems energy security competitiveness have come to the forefront and you can see it very closely when you look to the american election campaign today climate change is not an issue nobody talks about it it is if you talk climate then you're a loser look four years ago Obama became a winner with climate change and with climate policy so in his last in in last state of the union speech he mentioned climate change only once and that was when he said it's impossible to convince congress for on legislation concerning climate change and an analysis of by a scholar from bristol university found out that obama has talked less about climate change during his first term than both his predecessors including george w bush so that's that shows you a bit uh that something has changed second point second global trend which i would like to mention is the rising energy demand in the world according to the international energy agency in paris we will have a rise of energy demand worldwide of more than 30 in the next two decades particularly energy consumption in developing countries will experience a sharp increase about 45 percent by 2030 compared to an increase of only 2.5 percent in the developed countries so while we are pretty stable in the developed countries there's an enormous rise in developing countries and that is due to population growth economic expansion and of course urbanization by 2030 there will be about 8.3 billion people on the planet while low birth rates and a shrinking working age population in developed countries will result in modest economic growth and energy demand developing regions like india china africa for instance will see steep growth in their populations and working age groups well china not so much populations because of the one child policy but in china of course the the uh the idea to grow every year by 10 percent and more means an enormous energy hunger and we see that every day when we look in our newspapers about new chinese purchases of energy companies of shares of gas companies of raw materials throughout the world strong economic growth and the improved living standards and increased prosperity will require more energy by 2030 energy consumption in developing countries nearly doubles that of developed countries rising urbanization rates will also continue to play a key role in increasing future energy demand the share of the world's population living in cities has increased from 30 percent in 1950 to 50 percent today and is expected to rise to nearly 70 percent by 2050 so an enormous trend to urbanization just to illustrate 30 years ago we had only three cities with over 10 million inhabitants mexico new york tokyo today there are 20 such cities and only four of them are in developed countries uh los angeles new york osaka kobe and tokyo the astronomical rise in urban populations will require additional housing public transportation infrastructure water systems which in turn will consequently drive up the demand for energy so enormous raise of energy demand third point a green revolution is underway and it will not be stopped so whatever i said with with the uh the change of paradigm and change of priorities the green revolution will continue perhaps at a somewhat slower pace but it is an enormous factor worldwide also an enormous economical factor worldwide during the period from 2005 to 2010 total global capacity of renewable energy technologies grew at average rates ranging from 15 to 50 annually the IEA estimates that the share of renewables in global electricity generation excluding excluding large hydropower will increase from about 3 percent today to 15 percent in 2035 with the EU and China making up nearly half of this increase this rise in renewables is made possible by the provision of enormous amounts of subsidies whose annual sum is expected is expected to quadruple from around 50 billion euro in 2010 to 200 billion euro in 2035 that's a clear political decision and even if we might see some changes in general the subsidies will continue to grow especially because they are contracted in Germany if you have well in other countries if you have your feed and tariffs secured two years ago you have them for the next 20 years with an ever-growing amount of money which has to be paid from the taxpayers in 2011 about 120 countries worldwide had some type of policy target or renewable support policy at the national level up from 55 countries in 2005 so the global awareness that you need renewables that you have to invest in them even with government subsidies has grown not only in Europe but also in Africa, Latin America and so on and yet despite this expansion in global renewable energy capacity we are still far away from the age of renewables in the next two decades and this brings me to the next global trend coal oil natural gas the fossil fuels will remain and they will remain to play the most important role in energy demand in the next 20 years at least most probably even longer in 2030 coal oil and natural gas will still account for nearly 80 percent of the world's primary energy mix and what is interesting is that all three are pretty much account pretty much for the same amount they will be about 27 percent each while major non-fossile fuel groups will have market shares of around 7 percent each so 26 percent coal perhaps 27 perhaps 28 so something about this the same amount oil the same amount gas and when it comes to renewables and other energy sources 7 percent even with nuclear so fossil we will remain for the next two decades that's the foreseeable future in a fossil world we can do here as much as possible to overcome them but in China in India in Asia in Africa in Latin America in the US fossil fuels will remain a backbone of fossil materials will remain the backbone of the energy supply global oil consumption excluding biofuels is set to increase from 87 million barrels a day in 2010 to 99 million barrels a day in 2035 so we had a discussion a few years ago about peak oil so oil is now decreasing because there are no reservoirs that's that's that's the past we have new reservoirs we have new techniques to go deep into the sea we have a tight oil in the US we have oil sands so new forms new technological possibilities which have been the way paved by high oil prices they made it economical to to go even deeper to get the last out of the reservoirs and that has that is responsible for this enormous increase according to IEA and that's that's for ecologists even a worse news coal accounted for nearly half of the increase in global energy use over the past decade and its use will continue to rise through to the early 2020 at least that's I mean we all discuss since many years the CO2 emissions the dangers nevertheless half of the energy of the rise in energy demand has been satisfied by coal this plant which is in my point of view it's it's a fact first of all if no measures are taken then according to the IEA coal use is even projected to increase 65 percent by 2035 under current policy conditions making it the fastest growing fossil fuel coal will still continue to be the second largest primary fuel globally at least until 2035 especially countries with indigenous coal reserves and a high share of solids in their energy mix are expected to continue to drive the demand take the central and eastern countries for instance also dubbed the EU 11 for instance coal comprises about 36 percent of their energy mix triple that of the rest of the EU with 12 percent so it's it's very clear we discuss a common energy policy in Europe and I understand you had Gunther Oettinger the EU commissioner here last week well the central and eastern europeans are more and more unhappy with the energy roadmap 2050 with the aims well they stick to 2020 but they are absolutely unhappy when you set more ambitious goals like the irish goals like the german goals they say well you can do that but please not for us and they begin to be more and more aggressive and well aggressive too strong outspoken and assertive on those on those issues so because for them it means the it's a question of survival of their economies they depend on coal much more than we do they do not want to have more gas coming from russia which increases their dependency and they say well on the on the one hand you want us to to close the the wealth gap between east and west we should grow and on the other hand you put burdens on us that our energy prices rise and then our economies do not grow but leave the country but not only central and eastern europe take china the world's largest coal producer with the third largest reserves in the world already consumes nearly half of global demand today and will likely maintain its heavy reliance on coal as a relatively cheap alternative to other fuels to power it's rapidly for its rapidly growing economy alongside coal natural gas is projected to be one of the fastest growing fossil fuels its share in the global primary energy mix will nearly reach parity with oil and coal by 2030 meanwhile and that is the next trend the next global trend that is unconventional gas mainly shale gas it makes up about half of the world's total estimated natural gas resources largely due to recent advances in technology the IEA is already talking about entering a golden age of gas and that basically because of the shale gas revolution that we have seen in the last years in the US and that will repeat itself in other parts of the world perhaps not in Europe because of resistance of people and of somewhat smaller reservoirs but definitely in China definitely in India definitely in well I would say most probably in Russia where it is more economical to exploit the shale gas reservoirs than to build a new big natural gas exploitation in the Arctic stockman field for instance is more expansive than starting the own shale gas production so shale gas will come globally and it has already changed the global landscape also for Europe it has become a game changer already why well large parts of Europe including my country where to a large extent where and are to a large extent dependent on pipeline gas coming on the basis of long-term contracts from Russia this has been started during the Cold War for Germany Russia was a very good reliable partner in that energy partnership we got via pipelines gas from Siberia and it was the contracts have been served 100 percent so everybody you find you talk to in German energy utilities will say well the Russians are good business partners but these long-term contracts have are on the basis of energy prices of oil indexed energy price which have nothing to do with today's gas prices on world markets and spot markets because of LNG first that was the first gas revolution liquid liquefied natural gas which you bring via tankers from Qatar or Algeria to Europe to the US and so and and then by the shale gas revolution in the US and and how fast this change of landscape occurred you can see that with the fact that the US has planned and constructed 20 LNG terminals at their coast to get LNG gas from basically Qatar transferred to natural gas which you can use in households or for companies or for transport today they change these terminals because they are on the verge of becoming gas exporters so a country up to a few years very much dependent on gas exports is today independent from gas imports and is on the verge of exporting gas to much cheaper prices than Russian pipeline so with that and also even with that perspective you have enormous pressure to these long-term contracts which are by the way all which have already been renegotiated only because of the threat of large amounts of cheaper gas coming also because of LNG which has brought the the spot markets to lower prices then we have another another new development we will from the year 2017 on have gas from Central Asia no not from Central Asia from the first from the Caspian arriving in Europe gas either by Nabucco West pipeline or by the Trans Adriatic pipeline coming from the Chardonnay's giant gas field in Azerbaijan to Europe and contributing to a diversification of gas supplies so we have shale gas we have LNG we have perhaps in Poland a indigenous shale gas production we have gas coming from Azerbaijan which means that we in Europe well are entering a phase of an of a of a gas glut with gas prices which tend to go down development that nobody foresaw a few years ago so that is a revolution and imagine the same is possible when it comes to almost the same as possible when it comes to shale oil production and i give you some figures on that according to the U.S. energy information administration the Becken shale oil formation in North Dakota and Montana with an estimated 3.6 billion billion barrels of oil reserves produced an average of 2000 barrels a day in the year 2000 today the average average production rate stands at around 445 000 barrels a day nearly the equivalent of the average 2011 oil put of the whole of north and south Sudan so there's also an oil revolution starting in the U.S. this has been facilitated by the increased use of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing coupled with elevated prices for crude oil and other natural gas liquids as a result U.S. domestic oil production has increased by over 1 million barrels per day since 2008 but there is also a notable development on the consumption side during the latest presentation of the BP world statistical review 2012 the chief economist of BP observed that the U.S. has demonstrated a remarkable improvement vis-à-vis other economies due to a reduction in U.S. oil imports further evidence of the of the ways in which the technological improvement fostered by open competition in North America are changing the geopolitics of energy geopolitics of energy BP man talks about this and i think that's very clear here what happens if the U.S. as some predict becomes almost oil perhaps not totally but almost oil the independent by 2029 2030 and what does that mean to the global engagement of the united states of their engagement in the Middle East some might say well great no more Afghanistan and Iraq wars that's what we all wished for all the time that they don't entangle everywhere but what is the power vacuum they they might leave who will jump in the Chinese perhaps is that the better world than americama substituted by pax chinois or i don't know what you would say so so it's a the geopolitical meaning of a U.S. becoming more and more energy independent is of enormous importance to all of us will they send their boys to defend the straight of hormones which roughly 20 of the world's daily oil exports flow today will they bring their boys to iraq or other places in the world intervene those who said the u.s. did these interventions only for oil well if they are right then the u.s. will probably move into a decade or in the decades of isolationism which is which would not be the first time in history and at least in my point of view every time when the u.s. withdrew from world affairs the situation turned to be worse and not better but of course everybody has his own opinion about those things nevertheless however you look to those things and that's my my last mega trend we have we will see rising energy nationalism and imperialism in the years to come because of the rising demand and this rising demand is stronger than even the best findings of and of new reservoirs it goes so fast so quick that the competition about the reservoirs will grow will rise well and today nationally owned oil companies control almost 90 percent of the global of the globe's total oil reserves and 70 percent of the production a few years ago when we talked about the oil majors we talked about exxon bp chevron shell and so on today exxon is number 14 ranks number 14 when it comes to the control of reservoirs in the world the strong players the gas prompts the big Saudi Qatari Chinese Iranian conglomerates of who control the reservoirs and that has nothing to do with free enterprise or supply and demand policies it has a lot to do with strategic wins and losses and energy will in my point of view I fear it I am not saying that I wanted the opposite is true but my fear is that energy the power that you win with controlling energy and raw materials rare earths and so on water that is the weapon of the of the 21st century that is what makes powers big and powers small and it will be used as a weapon so this is the subject of my institute to well we will not prevent it but to analyze it to discuss it to look for schemes to to prevent worst-case scenarios but we see these nationalist tendencies everywhere by the way not only by when it comes to coal and and and oil and gas also when it comes to renewables look to the subsidies war between China and Europe the Chinese highly subsidize their solar panels they come with what come prize a fighting prices on the European market and in Germany one solar company after the other closes down because they are outcompeted by the Chinese geopolitics play a role everywhere there's a geopolitics on pipelines but geopolitics plays also a role when russia plans its national flag on the seabed at the north pole during a submarine expedition canada reacts with military maneuvers in the arctic the u.s drills for oil in west africa uh china does business with bolivia to get the lithium under control and so on and so on so this is where foreign and security affairs and energy come close to each other and and that is a topic which which we should look at at europeans and which we should prepare to to answer so those were a few thoughts and well it's not a golden future i think there are a lot of problems and challenges uh and uh in my point of view and there i absolutely agree with commissioner adela we do much better as europeans if we do it together and not every country by itself and we have to learn from each other from our experiences but at the end come to uh good compromises and and do it together in this uh competitive world is the only chance for us to survive in my thank you very much