 Is the bear market officially over? This rare technical chart pattern seems to think so. With only eight occurrences of this pattern in Bitcoin's lifetime, it becomes obvious why some are so fascinated with it. In fact, the last time that we saw this pattern, it was in September of 2021, right before Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $69,000. But exactly how accurate is this chart pattern? In today's video, we're going to uncover the truth behind the Bitcoin Golden Cross, exploring exactly what it is and how it works, and its historical performance. So let's explore the truth behind one of Bitcoin's most popular patterns, the Bitcoin Golden Cross. So what exactly is the Bitcoin Golden Cross? The Bitcoin Golden Cross is a technical analysis term used to describe a specific chart pattern. Simply put, it's a situation where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. To understand this further, we need to look at the concept of moving averages. The 50-day moving average is the average of the last 50 days of price data, while the 200-day moving average is the average of the last 200 days of price data. When the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, it's a bullish signal, indicating that the short-term trend has become stronger than the long-term trend. This is what is referred to as the Bitcoin Golden Cross. The significance of the Golden Cross in the stock market is well established. It is considered a bullish signal that can indicate the beginning of a long-term uptrend in stock prices. In the stock market, the Golden Cross is often used by traders and investors as a confirmation of a trend reversal, signaling that it's time to buy stocks. Similarly, the importance of the Golden Cross in the Bitcoin market cannot be overstated. As the Bitcoin market is highly volatile and prone to rapid price movements, the Golden Cross can serve as a valuable tool for investors looking to make informed investment decisions. Just like in the stock market, the Golden Cross in the Bitcoin market is seen as a bullish signal, indicating that the short-term trend in Bitcoin prices has become stronger than the long-term trend. This can be a powerful indicator for investors as it suggests that the market sentiment is positive and that Bitcoin's prices may continue to rise. In addition to its significance as a trend reversal signal, the Bitcoin Golden Cross is also important because of its rarity. The Golden Cross has only occurred a few times in the history of Bitcoin, making it a significant invent that can have a profound impact on the market. So now we understand what the Bitcoin Golden Cross is and exactly how it works. Let's dive into some historical data on exactly how this chart pattern has performed in the past. So this chart pattern has occurred eight times in the past. The latest Golden Cross is the ninth one that we have seen in the entire history of Bitcoin's price. So in order to pass or fail the Bitcoin Golden Cross, we're going to look at five different metrics. The first thing we're going to look at is if after the Golden Cross, Bitcoin's price reached a new all-time high. The second, third, and fourth metrics that we're going to be looking at is how Bitcoin's price did after 90 days, 180 days, and one entire year after it signaled that Bitcoin Golden Cross. And the final thing that we're going to look at is from the signal to its peak. How well did that do? You'll notice some of these hit five out of five metrics and sometimes, well, it hit zero out of five. All right. So the first Golden Cross that we got was all the way back in 2012. So over 10 years ago, looking at our first metric, you can see that we definitely hit a new all-time high after signaling a Golden Cross here. You can also see that after the first 90 days, Bitcoin's price was definitely in profit. It went up a total of 34%. At 180 days, Bitcoin's price went up by 158%. And at 365 days, Bitcoin's price had gone up by 2,725%. And then if we just look at the peak of the price, how far up it went before there was the opposite of the Golden Cross, which is a death cross, its way up here at around $1,163, which from the time that it signaled all the way to its highest price, the move would have been over 23,000%. So the first official Golden Cross was a success. Now, when we went to our second Golden Cross here, it was a bit of a different story. You can see back in 2014, we're kind of in the middle of this bear market. And after getting a death cross, we had a small bounce here, which led us to a Golden Cross. But 55 days later, we got another death cross here. So if you would have bought at this signal of the Golden Cross and sold at the signal of the death cross, it would have been down about 23% on that move. So this one did not pass any of our five metrics that we're looking for. Therefore, it was a failed Golden Cross. Now, as we look at the third Golden Cross back in 2015, you can see that it was quickly followed by a death cross 61 days later. This would have been a loss of minus 20%. So yet again, it would have been another failed Golden Cross. And the count would now be one out of three correct. However, very quickly, we got another Golden Cross here, marking Bitcoin's fourth Golden Cross back in October of 2015. And you will see that this one hit on every single metric, taking us all the way to our all time high of $20,000 back in 2017. After 90 days, it was up 32%. After 180 days, it was up 56%. After one entire year, it was up over 131%. And from the time that it signaled all the way up to its 2017 peak of the bull market, it would have been a return of 6,580%. So again, five out of five on that Golden Cross. So after a pretty brutal bear market once again in 2019 is when we saw our next Golden Cross. However, you will notice that this one was a little bit different than the past two successful Golden Crosses, as it never did hit a new all time high. However, after 90 days, it was up over 80%. And at 180 days, it was up over 52%. It never reached a full year as we did get a death cross before a year happened. But from the signal all the way to the top of its peak, it didn't move over 150%. So although this was a little bit different than the other successful Golden Crosses, we also consider this one a success as a hit on three out of the five metrics that were followed. So after the next death cross, we saw a lot of sideways action until February of 2020, which was just unfortunate timing because soon after in March, I'm sure you guys already know exactly what happened. We got hit with a pandemic and everything tanked. So only 36 days after getting this Golden Cross, we got a death cross. And if you would have sold at that point, it would have been a move of minus 34%. So the sixth Golden Cross was a fail. But very, very soon after in May of the same year, we got our seventh Golden Cross, which led us to new all time highs in our previous bull market. After 90 days, it was up over 28%. After 180 days, it was up over 76%. And after a full year, it was up 327%. And from the Golden Cross all the way to the peak of its move, it was a move of 581%. So a seventh Golden Cross was another five out of five successful chart pad. Now, and then came the most recent Golden Cross that we have seen back in September of 2021. This one was a little confusing because it was successful and it did signal a new all time high. As you guys can see here, the previous all time high was at 65,000. And after this signal, it went up as high as 69,000. However, after 90 days, it was actually flat. And then we got a death cross 122 days after the Golden Cross signal. And this is actually the death process that signaled the start of the bear market for Bitcoin. But from the signal all the way to its peak, it was a move of 46%. It also did post a new all time high. And although at 90 days, it was flat. I still consider this one a success as we did hit on three of the five metrics. And that brings us to today where we have just received another Golden Cross chart pattern here. But as you guys can already see, this is not a sure thing. It's pretty much a 5050 shot if you're just looking at this alone on average 90 days after the Bitcoin Golden Cross signal, Bitcoin has moved 44%. If that average remains true, that will put us at about $32,000 in May of this year. The six month average move after the Golden Cross signal for Bitcoin is 85%. If that again remained true, that will put us at around $42,000 in August of this year. And now for 365 days after the signal, I don't really like to look at because in the earlier days, the moves were a lot more volatile. So we had moves of 23,000%. Another one of over 6,000%. So if we eliminate at least the 23,000% one, it still leaves us with an average move of 796%. Which will put Bitcoin's price at about $200,000 next year at this time. Now, I don't think that's what's going to happen. That move just seems way out of the norm. Those numbers are a little bit too skewed due to its past performances, the price being so low. And it's really hard to try to make predictions on what's going to happen throughout this year and start going into next year. As you guys already know, the macroeconomic state of the world right now is up in limbo pretty much. So I don't want to put any predictions like that, that crazy out there right now. Now the average loss if you were buying when it's signaled and selling when the death cross signaled during the failed golden crosses would have been around 20% on average. So we've seen that it's pretty much a toss up on whether or not it's going to hit hitting on about five out of eight depending what you consider a successful golden cross. Some people might consider the last one as a failure that would put you at four out of eight. But if we just took out the last one since it was kind of questionable on whether it was successful or not. And we took out the pandemic one because that was of course a black swan event that would put us at four out of six, which is 66% accurate. Another interesting thing to look at is this pattern where there's three different ones. It happened again here, happened again over here, happened again at the top here. So you can see the same pattern where there's pretty much sideways action and the market is unsure of where it's going to go has happened pretty consistently one, two, three, four times. And this includes the top and the end of the bull run. Once again, the bottom and beginning of a bull run top and ending of a bull run, right? So is it possible that we see that once again here before we begin that next bull run? It did happen at the beginning of the previous bull run here, even though we did have that black swan event. And it happened back in 2015 on the beginning of that bull run. So that means the previous two bull runs, we saw two golden crosses before the bull run actually started again in 2020, two golden crosses before the bull run started. So it is a possibility to see two golden crosses here before this next bull run starts. And that would of course change all those numbers that we just looked at all those averages drastically because price will probably be somewhere different. The final thing that I want to look at here on the weekly chart, looking at the same 50 and 200 moving averages is this right here for the first time in Bitcoin's entire history, we might get a cross of the 50 and 200 weekly moving averages. Now one thing to note, the weekly moving average lag behind by a lot. However, it's something to keep in mind just because it's the first time that we would ever see it happening in Bitcoin's entire history, even though we couldn't start tracking it all the way back until 2015. Because of course to get an average of 200 weeks, it took a while, right? So just something to keep in mind. So the Bitcoin golden cross is just one tool in your arsenal of technical analysis. You never want to make your decision just based on one pattern or one indicator or anything like that. What you usually want to do is look for multiple indicators, right, that are pointing in the same direction telling you the same story. That's usually what I try to do, which is why my last video, I broke down to you guys the most profitable and most accurate Bitcoin indicator, which is the hash ribbons indicator. This indicator has hit on 10 out of 10 signals, and it has called the Bitcoin macro bottom seven out of 10 times. So make sure to check this video out on the screen right now. I'll see you guys on the next one. As always, peace and