 Today's Daily Fantasy Baseball Slay presents us one of the toughest questions we have to answer when playing this game We have to decide if a pitchers recent down tick is caused for concern or simply the result of bad luck or variance and that's tough because we can't walk up to that guy and say Hey, how's your arm feeling? I'd love to do that and that would be great But we can't do that. So we need to dig into the data decide is this recent down tick legit Should we actually avoid Zach Allen in a plus matchup at home or should we turn elsewhere? Can we trust Zach Allen for tonight? We're gonna dive in dig into the data see what it says and try to get the best answer We can to get you ready for tonight slate in MLB DFS Welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire here to break down Tuesday's 13 game main slate With lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for today There are no rain notes on this slate and not a ton of weather overall in general just three games for today Where temperatures above 75 degrees those are in st. Louis for the Royals and the Cardinals They are in Houston for the twins and the Astros if they allow the roof to be open there And the roof will be opening in Arizona for the Diamondbacks and Rockies So I'd upgrade offenses in those three situations But keep an eye on a Houston game because they may shut the roof there And if they do it would downgrade that game to being on par with the others But st. Louis should be better for offense don't really want to go there personally and then Arizona also good for offense, but also not a spot. I'm super itchy to get to for tonight So no massive massive weather notes on tonight's slate We'll dig into the gallons the gallon question outline pitching talk about stacks and more in just one second First a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast coming up later on today our PGA DFS podcast for a very fun feel for the Memorial Tournament and we're field village I'll be coming up here all the number fire daily fantasy podcast V2VM myself and Brandon can do a lot get that By subscribing wherever you get your podcast if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcasts as well Make a fast break to fan dual during the NBA playoffs because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 That's $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook That's fan dual official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money Wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is now in the trouble bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply seful terms at fendall.com slash sportsbook Fendall is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with the good I'm gonna sneeze here with the Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the fendall.com Slash RG in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1 800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 105 2 2 40 700 or in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Maryland and the gambling help that or in in New York 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open Y In West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net pitching preview for this Tuesday main slate shame the clan hand facing the Cubs He comes in with the highest salary in fendall at $11,200 followed by Joe Ryan at 11 flat and Zach Gallin The guy we're talking about here 10 7 Logan Gilbert against the Yankees at 10 6 price elder at 10 4 Lucas G Alito $10,000 Coday Senga at 96 Tony Gonsolin at 94 With Kyle Gibson Kyle Freeland Brian Bay out you say kikushi Nessar Cortez Miles Nicholas and Brandon B. Lack as the others at $8,000 or higher now Let's begin things off here at the gallon discussion because he gets the Rockies in Arizona and it's a great matchup And he in general is a great pitcher so let's talk about gallon and then decide where to put him for tonight because The past two starts for gallon have been pretty rough looking at his past couple games It's been a definite cool-off from where he was previously So when I see that and I see a big dip in strikeouts big difference when you strike rate over a small sample what it looked to first is velocity and Gallon's velocity in those two games has actually been fine. It's been on his foreseeing fastball It's actually been a little bit higher and that's a positive I think as far as if we're trying to discount things here He has changed his pitch mix a bit opting more for his cutter versus his slider and though there aren't huge differences as far as Velo on those but Maybe one is better on him than the other So I think if you're looking for a concern as far as a gallons data from the past couple of starts It would be that that he has opted to go at the cutter Versus the slider and we don't really know why given that it has led to a dip in his production So if you want to be wary of gallon I think that's probably going to be your first thing you look to but the velocity at least is very okay for gallon The reason we're bothering to go through this endeavor for gallon is because the matchup is pretty attractive The WRC plus of the Rockies is 95 It was much lower before Ryan McMahon one on his power binge over the weekend But that's definitely boosted things, but there's still not a team that you fear especially outside of course field. So I'm expecting Gallon to get back to his old ways personally because the velocity is still okay because a cutter is still a Breaking pitch in a way. I know it's called a cup fastball times, but it doesn't work like a fastball. So I Think we'll see the old gallon eventually if we lump in his two recent starts the struggles there to what he's done overall this year His skill interactive era is 3.34 He has a 28% strikeout rates with a 5% walk rate if his velocity were down I would back off for sure or at the match were tougher, but Neither of those are the case here. So I'm okay sticking with gallon here He's also back at home tonight whereas those two games are both in the road So I'll go with gallon. I understand if you don't want to I think that's the way I'd phrase it personally I will be going there. I understand if you don't want to they're pretty good alternatives on this slate So you can definitely justify but for me I haven't seen enough in gallons data to decide that I want to jump ship So for right now, I am okay with that gallon and do want to be on it The top alternative to gallon shame the clan hand He does not have an easy matchup, which is why I prefer gallon But the clan hand does have a high strikeout one, which is good for upside and great for tournaments McLean ends face in the Cubs. They have a 126 WRC plus against lefties so far this year Which means I don't really want to use guys facing the Cubs. They're very good But they do a 27% strikeout rate against lefties So good lefties can have a lot of upside against them that strike your rate a second highest on the main slate So McLean and gets a boost and his upside is already good He has nine plus strikeouts and three out of eleven starts He has seven and three others and the results have been amazing, which is why I think he can handle this Cubs lineup He has a 1.9 70 array so far. I am the cleanly hand projected for seven point four strikeouts Which is the top number on the slate even accounting for the fact He is in the road accounting for this matchup all that stuff So if you want to go McLean in over gallon, I can't push back on that I think that makes a lot of sense. I think there's personal preference for the venue and for the matchup That pushes me on gallon over McLean a hand or tonight So I'll go down on McLean a hand, but personally if you want to go McLean a hand I see no reason not to he is fantastic high upside matchup all that stuff makes a lot of sense as for the value play We're gonna go back to Brian Bayo for his third consecutive start He's been a value play here and luckily that the salary is still down the value section The first two times have been on Bayo have been solid. He's gone 12 combined innings Three year and runs 13 strikeouts and this time he's helping against the Reds Salaries 86 that's definitely good enough to do some work for us for tonight And I don't think the Reds are bad, but they are a good matchup for a righty They have a 94 w RC plus their ISO is 135 and those are numbers we can live with live with especially outside of Cincinnati Now Boston is also a pretty offensive friendly park But it's 63 degrees in Boston tonight, which means it's going to be a boost for pitching and not as bad of a park factor As it would be in other situations Bayo has been good beyond just the past two starts creeping on and so far this year He's been solid across the board He has a 3.77 skill interactive er rate his strikeout rate is 24 percent with a 12 percent swing strike rate And he gets a lot of ground balls 59 percent ground ball rate So you get strikeouts you get ground balls you get a low salary get a good matchup at home I like a lot of Bayo's done and again, I do like Allen. I do like the clan hand There's some other guys like on this slate. I'm fine having Bayo in my player pool He think he does enough to justify that for $8600. So if you want to spin down Give yourself flexibility to use the high salary Dodgers high salary braze. I don't blame it I don't blame you. So I think Bayo very good value play 49 now the middle media fs. So for me I'm gonna go gallon at the top But if you want to go McLean a hand no pushback and Bayo a worthy value play Deserving of being in your player pool for tonight Let's dig into the stacks and did kind of allude to this in the Bayo section But there are some high salary batters I'd like to use for tonight beginning with the Los Angeles Dodgers facing Jake Irvin This game is in Los Angeles for tonight and Irvin's first five starts have been a struggle Which I think was to be predicted or expected given how little experience Irvin had Above double a before making his debut But really tough spot for tonight, which I think makes the Dodgers a good stack the Dodgers against righty so far this year We're almost in june's. This is a large sample. I mean 216 iso They'd be 41 fly ball right, which is the best mark on the slate And that makes it a very tough spot for Irvin He set up a 43 fly ball right so far across his first five starts That number was 42 percent in double a last year The hard hit rate in the majors for Irvin is 40 percent and he's also walking too many guys Which means the batter balls are not the only route to this this stacks hitting, you know Could walk some guys could get us access to middle leavers right away That's also one route to a stack being good So no stack is guaranteed to hit that definitely Is not a thing Irvin has had some good starts this year But I do feel good about this one tonight. I feel good about ranking the Dodgers highly for tonight in mlb dfs As with most stacks there is going to be a guy who is a value play who you still don't really feel great about including within your stacks And for the Dodgers, that's david peralta. He could bat in the middle of the order I think they'll probably dip him down to eighth or so which would be great to make it less tempting But just a 115 iso against righty so far this year not a big threat to steal So if you're looking for like a quote-unquote value play in the middle of this or in the lower part of the Dodgers lineup I much prefer miguel vargas vargas Can I think he's a bit more likely to swap the bag? You think he has the same number as peralta this year, but they basically feel better about it But better power numbers against righty's 2800 dollars So not getting to peralta personally if I can avoid it vargas to preferred value play here Despite a good situation for peralta. I'm probably not going to get there personally Mention the braves as well. They're in play facing jp sears. This game is an oakland, which is a bad park factor So I never really want to go here, but and sears is also pretty good himself But he's a lefty and then the braves get to face the gays bullpen And I think that combination is enough to justify stacking the braves here We talked about this last week where I think sears himself is a fine pitcher He has a 4.18 skill interactive era in his past 11 starts since he started throwing more sliders into your changeups and 4.18 skill interactive era is not bad by any means and He flashed that last week against the mariners where sears Allow just one earn run across five innings But if you look at sears a start so far this year Opposing teams are still averaging 5.5 runs per game against him not him But against the oakland days in those games because the old bullpen is so bad So even if sears does do well the bullpen could still get hit and the stack could still hit And sears himself is not unhittable. He has a 53 fly ball rate in that 11 start sample. We mentioned He doesn't have a super restrictive hard hit rates and the braves crush lefties or iso against lefties is 281 like For context, I believe mookie bets his iso against righties this year is like 222 They're at 281 against lefties as a team. It's absurd. It's it's a banana's number I don't care how small the sample is So there are definitely downsides But I want to go at the braves here. I feel good about it And I think the plus side of the braves is You can stack them while going to mclanahan and galleon because of how many mid-range plays they have With juicers against lefties one of those guys is ozzie albies. I've talked about this a lot I think but he does get a boost against lefties his iso this year against lefties 371 It was 202 last year 262 the year before that So you look at the value plays on this braves team and Pretty much all of them benefit from facing a lefty because austin riley salary is still acceptable at $3200 You have uh, marcello zuna if he plays at 32 albies 31 or lando arsia is 29 You can make a good stack here without breaking the bank pretty easily so I think the braves are a fantastic stack for tonight I think that you can get them regardless where you go at picture and to me that is pretty attractive So uh the braves and dodgers both high salary stacks I'd like to get to for today the third stack is going to be the orioles I've really enjoyed stacking them so far this year and I don't think they'll be super popular for tonight they're facing cal quantrill who's had some good starts and As a result this might not be the perfect stack But I think it is good enough to go at here quantrill last year got by and had a pretty good Results-based year by suppressing hard contact He has not maintained that so far this year. His overall hit hard hit rate is 39 about league average And he has been tinkering. He's been using fewer sinkers over his past five starts and in those five starts his hard hit rates creeps Up to 41 percent, which could mean that he'll go back on that But even if he does the time before quantrill made this switch He wasn't thriving. He was tinkering for a reason. His overall year your array this year is 4.75 He's expected the array is 5.54 So his worst start of the year came last time out He allowed six certain runs in four innings to the white socks orioles pretty good team against righties a one of seven wrc plus solid temperature in baltimore four tonight So I'll be on them here. I feel pretty good about them and do like the orioles despite the fact I don't think they'll be super popular for tonight now the one downside is likely no cedric mullins He left yesterday's game with an injury So i'm expecting him to sit for tonight and mullins is great So that's a bummer to lose a great great option But that may put adam frazier in the lead off spot He was there against a righty when mullen sat last weekend Frazier does have four steals against righties this year his iso is 167 His salary is $2,800 I think I'm higher on him than I thought I'd be like I kind of thought this might be a peralta situation where I dig in I'm like, okay. I can't really talk myself into this but I do think there's enough there for frazier to justify him at 28, especially if he does Flip up to the top of the order of mullins can't go for tonight So adam frazier $2,800 not a guy I've used very often Historically, but I think for tonight does make sense as a one-off or within the anorial stack against cal quadtral Things to watch couple spots here. I think that are noteworthy The white socks facing tyler anderson and anderson's peripherals are pretty awful this year But he is doing a great job of suppressing hard contact and as a result it's led to Some pretty impressive starts. So I think the white socks are in play They have a lot of uh, they're getting healthier now. It's a lot of good righties in this lineup I don't mind them But I would not be shocked if I wound up being lower on them than consensus because I respect what anderson does as far as suppressing hard contact and limiting the upside of opposing stacks The brewers are facing use a kikuchi the hard contact thing not in play here He's still giving up a lot of fly balls a lot of hard contact and he he's facing the brewers who Uh, don't have willy adamus right now out with a concussion They strike out a lot against lefties and we even when adamus is healthy, which means a kikuchi Could have a good game here, but someone like william cotreras could be a good one-off in this situation I really don't mind him. I think that he is a good player in general So he's kind of like the one fun righty left here within this lineup with no adamus So more so for one offset and anything else to the brewers for tonight By the twins are facing brandon belac and I don't think belac is a bad picture I'm not itching to target him but Royce lewis is minimum salary and he had an awesome return from his torn acl yesterday He looks really good his first in his rehab stint where he actually stole a couple bases four home runs down in AAA so Lewis's salary is the minimum I think that if you want help getting to mclanahan while stacking the dodgers and the braves I would say put rois lewis in as as a one-off and you can feel Pretty good about the process in doing so. So rois lewis minimum salary good one-off for tonight Let's finish up here with the dinger calls this one. I don't know if he's actually going to play It sounds like max muncie should be back to play last night, uh partially, but Out of the swimming he will actually start tonight's game So i'm going to make max muncie the boring home run call for today His odds for a dinger Tuesday over a fandal sportsbook plus 320 pretty short for sure So not a vet recommendation, but as far as a dinger call for today I think max muncie a plus 320 does make a lot of sense The fun home run call mentioned before william contraris facing off against usa kikuchi He's in toronto which has had pretty good home rescue so far this year Contraris's odds plus 420 so again not super long odds by any means, but I think that he's pretty interesting for sure So the home run calls for today the boring one max muncie and the fun one william contraris If muncie can't go because that hamster which again, I think he will give me played yesterday I would go to jd martinez as the alternative to max muncie That's all we got here for today on the solo shot I actually should say contraris is a catcher. So if he doesn't go we'll make rois luis the uh the fun Dinger call alternative because why not let's have some fun with that That is actually all we have here for today and the solo shot as mentioned coming up later on today We got our pga dfs podcast for the memorial tournament get that by subscribing wherever you get your podcast So we'll break down that one over on the number fire at daily fantasy podcast feed if you've got any questions for me I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups So we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down wednesday slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network