 presentation of TFNN. The Tom O'Brien Show is produced every business day. Tom takes your phone calls toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Let's go to Alan Tamp. Hey, Al, what's going on? Oh, it's a beautiful thing. I mean, if your listeners don't get the gold report, or they're missing out. I mean, with your gold report, you just print in money. I love it. You're my best dad out there, Al. Let's go to Jeff in New Jersey. Hey, Jeff, what's going on? Great. Hey, listen, I was calling to thank you. A few weeks ago, you were prompting on your show to fill out that $10,000 grant. Yes. So I filled it out, and just a couple days ago, I found $1,000 in my business checking account. That's awesome, man. That's awesome. Yeah. Oh, it's to you, because if it wasn't for your prompting, I would have just assumed, you know, no way I would have gotten anything, so I wanted to thank you. No, we appreciate you growling a problem. Let us see it. Now, Tom O'Brien. Hey, folks, this is Jacob, filling in for Tom O'Brien. He will be back tomorrow. Today, we're seeing a little bit of a bounce back on the major indices. We have the Dow up a bit. NASDAQ's still down a little. S&P 500 up a little bit. Let's spy. The dollar has made quite a move up. Now, we broke that 102 level, and we'll see if we can stick up there from the 101. Last Friday, we were just kicking over the 101. So it seems like the dollar is rallying a bit. Obviously, gold is taking a step back quite a bit. Then we have the ESMini up just a bit. It's a nice green line right there for you all. So what is going on this week? We have a lot of earnings. Obviously, Schwab knocked it out of the park. Let's see if we can get Schwab up for us. That's top one. So with Schwab, the Justin earnings left about 20% to $0.93 per share, while revenue rose 10%. A lot of this is being driven by higher returns on loans. Net interest incomes by 26% to $2.77 billion. Trading revenue declined 7% to $892 million. Bank deposits tumbled 30%. I think we all kind of expected that. And that was down to $325.7 million. And total assets fell 21% to $535 million. And Schwab also decided to pause its share by back program in light of the recent banking events. So that was a nice bump up. We also had, let's see here, M&T. They popped up similarly due to the same kind of reasons. The higher interest rates are just returning a lot back on their lending. Now, if we're looking at, let's see here, State Street is a custodian bank. So they're holding onto these kind of just assets in general and they manage them. This fell pretty grossly. They're down 10% today on the earnings. Generally speaking, though, it seems like the banks are poised for some nice bump up, I would suppose. I think Bank of America, we're going to see something similar, what they're talking about. At least the market views this as well. Obviously, you had some big volume on the downside. But you're getting a nice increase back up, some high volume earlier today, about 1.30 PM. And they're saying their forecasts are pretty solid as well. Now, I want to take a look at this here. This is from Morgan Stanley. And of course, we're going to increase this a little bit. Oh, man. So this is the S&P 500 sector returns. You see, financials have a real high increase at least on the one week, right? They're very heavily weighted. This is all your banks. Energy as well. We know that. Industrials, materials. Consumer staples, obviously going down. Interesting technology. Definitely like in fintech as well. This is seeing a huge hit. Utilities. And of course, we know real estate. It's pretty interesting. We can read through a little bit what Morgan Stanley had to say. This is throughout the week in the first quarter. Earning seasons is underway with the large US banks releasing results last Friday. And obviously, we have some still coming up. Current analyst estimates are tracking operating earnings per share, operating EPS of $49.54, representing year-to-year growth of 0.4%, and a quarter over quarter decline of 1.6%. At the sector level, these estimates suggest a change in leadership. The boost from the energy sector looks to set to fade due to normalizing commodity prices. And that's a huge thing to keep in mind as well. Even with the decrease of oil production with OPEC, this might be meeting a strict up in demand on the larger global scale on it. So the current estimate of 7.6% year-to-year earnings growth for energy sector represents a sharp deceleration compared to recent quarters. So act accordingly regarding that. Other things we have to look forward to tomorrow. Goldman Sachs, let's take a look here. Probably see something similar with the other guy right here. Up modestly today. And then Lockheed Martin, which will be interesting. I am eternally interested to see how these defense stocks operate, especially in this world. I personally think that everything's essentially priced in, even dealing with the Ukraine war. But we'll see how they report. And then Netflix. And everyone online, take for that what it is, seems to be really interested in Netflix. And we might see a bump up on that. I'll be watching it. I'm not going to take any position, honestly. I think these prices are huge. But we'll see what happens and how that returns. Also, we have Tesla. That's going to be Wednesday. What's interesting about Tesla too is Elon, via SpaceX is having a rocket launch right before earnings. And obviously, SpaceX and Tesla are not integrated business-wise. But I think what's important to keep in mind on the broader scale is it seems like the kind of hotshot meme investors do see them as integrated. So whenever SpaceX does super well, Tesla roars. And it's more of this getting exposure to Elon Musk as an individual, I think, than people investing just because of Tesla. Tesla's up. Just a little bit. We'll see what earnings has to do with them. IBM is down. They have earnings. And then ASML will be interesting. They do the EUV, they're based in the Netherlands. They do the EUV chip etching. But it seems like there's going to be a deceleration of chip orders. So the delivery might get pushed out to a year. I was reading some analysts saying, just keep posted for that. Because it'll be interesting to see. And these guys are probably going to ramp up quite a bit with the kind of changing global developments. And then of course, Thursday, Bank OZK, Blackstone as well. And we got Procter and Gamble and Freeport Mac Moran on Friday. And I want to take a look at this, just on a year today. Just, well, let's do it on a yearly. Just because I'm curious. So we'll see if this gets any kind of push out whatsoever. It seems like it's flirting with that $45 area. It has some low volume on that test, or excuse me, high volume on that test, rejecting it. So we'll keep posted for our earnings for Freeport Mac Moran. When we get back, we'll talk a little bit about Apple. They're doing something crazy regarding Apple payment. We'll talk a little bit about Walmart and how they're pivoting away from their current kind of retail onto some other things, such as health and fintech. So stay tuned, and we will be right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, Forex, stocks, and options. Teddy releases his weekly Tiger Forex Report every Monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs, including the dollar index, the euro dollar, pound dollar, dollar Swiss, dollar yen, as well as many more, and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30-year T-bonds as they both influence Forex markets tremendously. When you sign up for the Tiger Forex Report, you also gain instant access to Teddy's 60-minute webinar archive he just hosted, Forex strategies and fundamentals, what is behind the Tiger Forex Report? For all the details and to start your 30-day Tiger Forex Report subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today, and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com Educating Investors. Toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Welcome back, folks. Take a look over here. We have, now, a little while ago, I had the pleasure of doing a little bit of proofreading and publishing when we were going through a transition on our backend of Steve Rhodes' Mastering Probability. And this newsletter has such a wealth of information. I mean, it goes above and beyond for regarding information, when it talks about its breadth. Steve is always responsive. I mean, this is really awesome. You can try a one-month-free guy's money-back guarantee if you find out you don't, it doesn't vibe with what you're doing. But seriously, folks, I would really recommend trying this out if you haven't yet. Steve Rhodes, are you there? I am. Jacob, is this the inaugural show? I don't know. I'm just filling in for Tom where I can, so. Perfect, perfect. Oh, great. Well, you're doing great. Glad to join you. Thanks for the nice comments about the newsletter. In fact, we'll talk just a little bit about that. But first, what I thought we could cover is what I see just taking place in some of the general markets out there, just to provide some folks with some areas to watch some different levels and so forth. So this first chart that we have up on our screen has got the four daily equity future contracts. And most of my signals, not for individual stocks, with regard to the general market are coming from the futures contracts. And the reason is because they're trading nearly 24 hours a day, say 23 hours a day. And so it's providing, and so I'm a pattern recognition trader out here. And so I need more information, not less information. And most of the time, the same signal that we would see taking place, let's say on the S&P 500 or the SPI, is not the same signal that is forming inside the ES mini. So there's a big difference here. Now, I'm not suggesting that people have to trade the futures contracts, but a lot of our listeners are trading, whether they're trading options or they're trading the leveraged ETFs out there, it's really important to understand what's going on inside those equity future contracts. So as an example, here are the four. We'll go through each one of them. On the daily timeframe, what the daily ES mini form was an A to B equals CD pattern. So Jacob, we were all turned on to that, well, really by Tom and Larry, but I think Larry is the one that really pushed that pattern out there because of following HM Gartley's work. But certainly Tom had the A to B equals CD. In fact, that's where I first learned it was from Tom and then got involved with Larry. So a great pattern, it works for all timeframes, it works for all instruments out there. It's one of the workshops that I have for people that do subscribe to Mastering Probability. So teach them all the nuances of that pattern. But here what folks just need to be aware of, they can just write a couple of numbers down on a pad of paper. So we have what's referred to as a sell the D point. Now it's not just that it's an A to B equal CD pattern, Jacob. It's the fact that the pattern gets confirmed by bears. In this case here, because price is moving up and the way that that is done is by taking a look at Japanese candlestick charting. So I incorporate pattern recognition and the way that those patterns complete is with the market telling us. And that's either through a bullish or a bearish reversal signal. So in this case here, what the ES mini did was it formed a bearish shooting star candle. So I'm not on a live chart on a PowerPoint out here. So I don't want to be exact date, but four days ago, whatever that trading session was. So what that means folks, is that as long as price doesn't close about 41.77, 75, we've got a top in place. Now that top could just lead to a sideways move, consolidate within side its profile, a number of different things out here. The first level of support is 41.35. Now I'm not sure exactly where we're trading at this moment, but watch at today's close, the 41.35 level. If price closes below that, that'll be a close below the top of the daily profile. Now a profile, when I use that word folks, that has, I use profiles to help me identify where buyers and sellers reside. In this case here, the sellers did reside at 41.35, but once price got above that, oftentimes old resistance can become new support. So a price close above 41.35 at today's close, we really have a neutral type signal versus, and even though we have a top in place, we would have a neutral signal. The reason Jacob that we would have a neutral signal is because price would be above two levels of key support out there. One, the top of the profile, and two, a line that's on my chart, it's red and green, it's called the oscillator and change line. When that line is green, which it is now for the ES mini, it tells us that we have a price oscillator that is trading above zero. And a price oscillator or an oscillator is nothing more than a measuring the difference between two items. In our case, I'm measuring the difference between a 19 and a 39 day. In this case here, because it's a daily timeframe chart, that 19 to 39 exponential moving average for price. And when the line is green, what it's telling me is we have a rising price oscillator above zero. Those are bullish conditions. Unless there's some resistance that we're really aware of that's right up in front of us, which is this 41.77. So here's the ultimate numbers to write down on your pad of paper, folks. If there's a close below 41.35, you should expect price to get down. Sorry, I'm sorry. Yeah. If price, so I can say I screwed something up here, but I'm anticipating that price will go target the 41.35 level. And if price closing below that, then we're gonna take a look at 41, 14 and 40.76. Not until price breaks below or close below 40.76. We have any kind of a change in trend. So that's the ES mini. We'll be much quicker here on the NQ. The NQ would form or appears that it will form a roadsman to indicator top today. And if it does that, the first level of sport is 13062, which I believe we're trading above right now. If price were to close below 13062, then that's gonna bring the 12.705 to 12.770 area into play for the Dow equity future contract, the area to watch. So the Dow does not have a topping pattern. So we don't have here a synergy with regard to tops. Yes, we started off with the ES mini showing the top. The NQ may form that top today, but the Dow does not have a topping signal. And so therefore it remains bullish. That doesn't mean that it can't pull back. And if we do get a bearish reversal candle, that would then generate a sell the D point pattern. Should that happen? Then we'd likely see price pull back to 33, 7, 38. And if price got below that, we'd be looking at 33, 460 and then 33, 321. The Russell 2000 was just simply consolidating with inside his profile. And that's the bottom right end panel chart out here, Jacob and everybody listening in. 17, 22, 70 of support. Bottom of profiles where buyers are at. Top of a profiles where sellers are at. That's at 18, 25. And the center of that profile, that third line should want to exist where both buyers and sellers believe there's fair value with inside that price. So that's the bigger picture and key support and or resistance levels to be watching. Now a number of folks that are inside the den are simply intraday type traders. So what's the levels to be watching there? Jason, probably about 13, 14 years ago, I took what was called, Larry does a lot of work on a celestial type aspects and things of that sort. So I took the entire, I got in touch with the author of the New American Ephemeris and paid him to give me a digital download of all that data. I then took all that data and was able to incorporate it into a different program that I had. What I was looking for was some consistency, some event, some celestial event, some event out there, some planetary alignment where every time that that occurred, it gave us an advantage. I wasn't able to locate that. However, during that process, I was able to locate a lunar pivot point that works for reasons I don't understand. I just know that it works. And it's called Apigee and Perigee. Perigee came in this weekend on Sunday evening. Perigee is when the earth is closest to the moon during the lunar cycle. And so the key levels to be watching overnight for the ES mini is gonna be 41, 74. For the NQ is 13, 2, 12. For the YM, the Dow is 34, is 34, 125. Jacob, and everybody listening, the price closes above that. It tells you not to be short those indices. The Russell 2000 is already trading above Perigee. So it's out of mind of its own. So it's a great level to be watching for support and resistance. And those will be the levels to be watching. Endlessly fascinating, endlessly fascinating. Steve, I'm telling you folks, just try out the newsletter. I mean, if that wasn't enough for you, I don't know what is. That was awesome, Steve. Thanks, Jacob. I appreciate that. Best of luck on the rest of the show. See you now. Bye. All right, folks. Stay tuned. We'll be right back. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector, as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. News subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. 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I'm taking a look here at Walmart. So some of the big news that came out is Walmart is selling Banobos. And what Banobos is essentially their male brand, right? They do like button-up shirts and kind of things to that effect, right? The casual young menswear. In 2017, Walmart paid $310 million for this brand. It's doing well. The Banobo itself is still a strong brand, but it's selling it today, or excuse me, a few days ago, for $75 million to express. So quite the loss from it. Now, they are selling it with the deal for royalties, essentially, right? So Express, you know, Express has, they do like cheaper, like, how do you say it? Like, if you're going to prom or something like that, or you're a young guy, you need like business attire, and you don't wanna drop a lot of money, you're gonna go to Express. And so they're adopting that brand as well. And this is an interesting pivot for Walmart, right? Because, you know, I remember a few years ago, Walmart was talking about opening something for optometry, maybe doing something regarding like dental work, and it seems like they really are focusing still on healthcare, and also pivoting a little bit to fintech, getting away from hoarding these just massive brands, right? I know Moosejaw, they sold that as well, and Shoes.com, purchased and sold it, and I think their acquisitions guy kind of got nixed recently as well. So it'll be interesting to see, the market didn't react too negatively to this whatsoever. It is nice, right? They're honing in on what they need to do. They're not, you know, Amazon is so dominant in this kind of realm, right? Not with the healthcare and fintech, but Walmart has these brick and mortar stores, so what better to do with them instead of trying to compete online with Amazon is just pivot. And the brands you have currently that are falling into that, not falling into that category of healthcare and fintech, sell it and collect royalties. I think it's a really brilliant idea. The market doesn't, again, seem to react too heavily at all to it. So we'll kind of see what happens with that. I thought that was just pretty interesting. When I first saw the headlines, I was blown away that they were selling at such a discount, but you know, give it a little bit of thought and that kind of makes sense. So let's see here. Merck has purchased Prometheus Biosciences, which is working on, Prometheus works on drugs for like Crohn's disease. So let me go, it's going to weekly. So I think it was announced earlier. Get a little up on it, but what's interesting obviously is, as always happens, it's Prometheus is up like 70%. This is insane. So this deal is like $11 billion, I think $10.8 to be exact. So that's just some interesting news to keep your eyes on. Very interesting. And let's see here. One of the things I wanted to talk about, I'm not going to talk too much on it, but it was, and I don't, there's not really a good stock to show your equity to show you for it. But it's something I didn't know is regarding Cobalt, right? So Cobalt is super in demand metal. It's used in all of our high tech gadgets, computers, your phones, in high demand. Usually it's extracted from the Congo. Now that has a lot of issues regarding whether or not there's fair labor going on there. Also regarding just supply chain stability due to that region being historically unstable. What I found out is that Idaho contains an extraordinary amount of Cobalt. And it is being tapped, but it's about to ramp up as well. And so we might see a return to really, really heavy earth mineral mining in the States. Idaho Cobalt belt is a 34 mile long stretch of essentially just Cobalt. And this area is going to produce at least 2,000 tons of Cobalt annually. As far as I'm concerned, there is a equity, je vois, je vois, but it's not traded that well. Let me see if I can get the ticker for you. It's on the Stuttgart exchange, that's strange, yeah. But it's something to keep in mind. It's super interesting if we see more equities popping up that are getting into Cobalt. It's something to look into because Cobalt isn't going anywhere anytime soon. So Google, they have a little bit of, they have some problems. They're share slid today on the reports that Samsung may choose being for search. And this is kind of strange to me, right? Yes, you know, being integrating chat, GPT is huge. But also to keep in mind that Google search already integrates pretty intense AI. They have such a large breadth of data, more so with Alphabet itself, more so than any other company in the world. You know, to kind of bet against them, obviously something tangible like Samsung choosing being instead of Google is massive. But I think there's kind of a misconception here going on that chat GPT is somehow eons beyond what Google is doing. Google is, has been working on something for quite a while and they're releasing something called Magi, right? It's the same concept. AI-powered features to search. And that's kind of about all we have, but they really need to roll something out quickly in order not to lose that Samsung contract because that is a tangible loss beyond the intangible where people are just kind of like, hey, you know, chat GPT is shiny and new. It's been integrated to Bing, let's use it. I've used the Bing search. I still prefer the Google search myself. On that note as well, when I would be studying for something just any random topic I'm interested in, I started using chat GPT. Super informative. Of course, in the past when I was in college and even in high school, we had something called Chegg. And Chegg essentially just had the answers to all the homework and quizzes. And that's obviously not a positive thing because you're not necessarily learning, but it was very, very profitable for that. Everyone I knew for the most part, save a few, had subscriptions to this company. And chat GPT basically became a pretty big competitor with it, right? Because you could just interface directly. Now chat GPT is behind a paywall. Schools have actually banned chat GPT on their networks. So what Chegg is seeking to do, well, and also wanna add as well, chat GPT isn't entirely flawless in the data it gives ya. It is wrong some amount of time. Chegg tends to be far more accurate. And what they're seeking to do now, which is a really interesting way to pivot. And that's what I find so interesting why I'm bringing this up. Not because the equity is doing particularly well or anything, but they're seeking to be a middleman from chat GPT to the students, and particularly again, students who can't access it due to network limitations. I think that is super fascinating in such a good way to adapt to a competition as opposed to just buckling under it. I think it's really neat. Let's see here, regarding Google's Magi, and we'll see how quickly they roll that out. The new product will predict users' needs with features such as helping users write software code and display ads in search results. Wonderful. And Google's also exploring mapping technology that allows users to use Google Earth with the help of AI and search music through conversations with chat bots, which is pretty neat. Other products Google is considering launching in various stages of development. A tool called Giffy will use AI to generate images that can be displayed in Google image search results. Another tool called TivoliTutor will teach users new language. That's super interesting to see. Cut in a little bit to Duolingo's market share. Folks, stay tuned. Talk a little bit about Apple. They're introducing a savings account with a 4.1 to 5% interest rate. Stay tuned. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back, folks. Okay, so we go the same before we went on the break. Apple launches its savings account with a 4.15% interest rate, which is knocking out that 0.35% on the usual savings. So let's see here. Apple on Monday launched its Apple Card savings account with 4.15% annual percentage yield. It requires no minimum deposit or balance, Apple said, and users can set up an account from the wallet app on their iPhones. I may just do that. Users must have an Apple Card in order to open the savings account. The company said in a press release that all daily cash rewards earned through the Apple Card will automatically be deposited to the savings account. Daily cash is the Apple Card reward program that offers up to 3% back on purchases, which is pretty neat. Users can change where their daily cash is deposited at any time and can also add funds from their bank account to build on their earnings. Let's see here. Apple is launching the savings account through Goldman Sachs, very neat. So this is, well here, we'll see it here. So that average API on savings accounts is just 0.35%, according to FDIC. Obviously huge now, this article is funny. It says, but competing savings account over by large credit unions, online banks, and brick and mortar banks can also offer customers a significant API. The only one they present is necessarily higher, besides Revio and CIT. They offer 4.75 and 4.77% relative. And then Marcus by Goldman Sachs has a 3.9% APY. So, you know, Apple's, this is also all these require minimums except for Vio. This is huge, especially for like the younger generation that's not maybe so integrated. I'm talking like people my age a little bit younger, like maybe in their early 20s or mid 20s. This is really gonna get them interested in savings if they can afford to put something away in savings, just depending where they live. This is super interesting. I'm gonna read a little bit more on this and what I mean by reading is I'm gonna go in there afterwards after the show today and just check it out a little bit. I think that's, I think it's very neat. Obviously a 4.15% is better than a lot of people are doing in the general market on their portfolios. So, yeah, I think this is really cool. And like I said, making, having like FinTech like this and just financing in general, be more accessible to the younger generation is huge. It's so huge. A lot of people I know honestly still keep cash and I'm talking to even people into their millennials like way into their 30s or still like just sticking with cash. This might get people a little bit more warmed up to the just structure of, you know, traditional finance in that way. One of the things I mentioned was if young people can put this away, the money away into a savings account, I found this super interesting. This is about the extending terms on mortgages. And I spoke a little bit two, a few weeks ago about even long-term loans on cars, right? This is an article from Financial Times. Now it says first-time buyers are increasingly taking out ultra-long mortgages. You can see here this massive increase. Obviously that's the over 35. The article is asking, you know, why? How are they doing this? Why are they doing this? And it's like, how are they affording? How can they afford to do this? It's like most people can't afford not to do it. You know, this is like an issue with things being extraordinarily expensive in a lot of places. And the way you decrease your monthly payments is gonna be by taking out a longer-term loan. And yes, obviously you end up paying far more in interest at the end of the term, but you know, you can either do that or just not have access to it. And that's the case for a lot of people. Again, I bring up that story of someone I know who had to buy a car made in 2016 and a seven-year loan on the thing just so they could meet monthly payments. You know, it's an interesting market out there. And, you know, we'll kind of see how that takes off. I'll talk a little bit more coming up on the EV Pivot. But you know, that's gonna make cars more expensive as well. Obviously the Toyota CEO was talking about seeing a 50,000 base price for these cars. But I think what this is gonna end up doing is, you know, basically setting a precedent, right? So like home prices might not decrease. They might not increase substantially from this kind of thing. What's gonna happen is it's just going to make this kind of pay structure far more common. And over, you know, an extended period of time doing that, that becomes the standard. And is that necessarily a standard that, you know, is full of positives? Like maybe it's something to look at. I don't know. It is interesting. This is an interesting article as well regarding the sharp rise in mortgage rates didn't just hurt home buyers. And the banks are now losing money on loans as well. JPM, Wells Fargo and Citigroup were among some major banks that announced that they had significant decline in mortgage originations. A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association also noted that certain banks actually lost money on originating mortgages for the first time since 2008. Independent mortgage banks and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks in particular lost an average of $301 on each loan they originated in 2022. For the first time, this is a quote, for the first time since the inception of MBA's report in 2008, net production income was in the red with losses averaging 13 basis points. The rapid rise in mortgage rates over a relatively short period of time combined with extremely low housing inventory and affordability challenges meant that both purchase and refinance volumes plummeted. The stellar profits of the previous two years dissipated because of the confluence of declining volume, low revenues and higher costs per loan. At the big banks, origination volume fell as rates took off and mortgage rates jumped from 3% to 4% range in early 2022 with 6% range early this year. Comparing to the first quarters of 2022 and 2023 by originations volume fell 77% and JP Morgan to 5.7 billion from 24.7 billion. That is immense. Well, as Fargo says, this origination volume fell 83%. Obviously this is a little more to do with the increase in rates, but it just goes to show how strange this market's getting at least for just the common consumer, right? So it's something to keep a lookout for. I do think that we're gonna see like huge, huge, huge term loans in the future. Pivoting over a little bit. Now, if you've been sticking with us for the past few weeks, you've already known this, but just came out today, or excuse me, Sunday, that Yellen says US banks may need to tighten lending and negate need for more Fed rate hikes. Obviously we've been talking about that since Powell came and spoke, but it will be interesting to see how this pulls out. I think that, I think it was Blackstone said that they actually do still see a 0.75 rate hike coming in. That's interesting. That's obviously very extreme for what the rest of the market is kind of saying, but we'll see what happens. Yellen says that banks are likely to become somewhat more cautious in this environment. We already saw some tightening of lending standards in the banking system prior to that episode. Obviously speaking about the bank runs, and there may be some more to come. She said that would lead to a restriction in credit in the economy that could be a substitute for further interest hikes that the Fed needs to make. We'll see what happens again. Like, yeah, they are tightening a bit, but the banks are making some pretty good money right now. So we'll see what happens again. We're waiting to see if these like defaults really increase to see what the banks are gonna do. But strange times, banks seem strong, labor market seems strong, and yet we're still kind of dealing with this kind of stuff here. So stay tuned, folks, we will be right back. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. 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I had not heard of this before, although it makes sense and it seemed like it was kind of a natural progression. But what it is is essentially they're tokenizing gold. So they're pegging the price of stable coins, which are, you know, again, coins pegged to real-life assets to gold. And this just got a huge bump up to a $1 billion market cap. And these kinds of coins are Pax and Tether gold. But at the time that this was being written, at least, the market cap of Pax and Tether was 518 million and 499 million, respectively. This is insane. And so the idea is essentially, and this is why a lot of these Wall Street guys are kind of interested in this, or at least what the reason they're saying they're interested in it is, that it makes gold far more liquid, right? Now, obviously you don't really own the physical gold, right? But it essentially allows you to fractionalize shares. And I think that's pretty interesting. And it seems to be that's kind of gonna be, at least the future of the crypto realm is kind of these stable coins. And I mean, even the Bank of England, to an extent, is coming out and making real statements saying they need a limit using stable coins for payments, or at least rules on it. This quote here, this is the deputy governor of BOE, says the systemic stable coins will need to be backed with high quality and liquid assets. And these could include either deposits at the Bank of England or very high liquid securities or some combination of the two. And we are currently considering which of these options is most appropriate. And what's interesting with this, and there are precedents for this, is you make stable coins pegged on other stable coins, such as tokenized gold coins like this. I don't know. It's definitely a brave new world regarding this frontier here, but it's just interesting to see it getting so much exposure and having such a high market gap. Folks, thank you so much for sticking with me these past three days. Tom will be back tomorrow. I hope you guys have a safe one. I hope you have a great one and we will see you tomorrow.