 For our final day looking back at Tiskey Sour in 2020, I'm taking a bit of a risk. That's because we're filming this on the 18th of December. It's our last day in the office. And at the moment we still don't know, whether Britain will be leaving the transition period with or without a deal. You will. This is being released on the last day of the year. So you should be pretty clear whether or not Britain is going to tumble out of the transition period with or without a deal. What I'm going to show you now is my prediction from the 11th of December. You are now in a position to judge whether or not I was correct. But we're always hopeful. And as you know, the negotiations are continuing. We've got our teams still out there in Brussels. And, you know, if there's a big offer, a big change in what they're saying, then I must say that I've yet to see it. Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can't seem to make progress. And that's the, it's kind of ratchet claws they've got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of the legislation, which obviously doesn't work. And then there's the whole issue of fish, where, you know, we've got to be able to take back control of our waters. So there's a way to go. We're hopeful that progress can be made. But I've got to tell you that from where I stand now, here in Blythe, it's looking, it's looking, you know, very, very likely that we'll have to go for a solution that I think would be, you know, wonderful for the UK. We'd be able to do exactly what we want from January the first day. Obviously it would be different from what we'd set out to achieve. But I've no doubt that this country can get ready. And as I say, come out on World Trade. So the headlines Boris Johnson was looking for in that clip and which he got was him saying that a no-deal Brexit is now very, very likely and that it would be wonderful if it were to happen. We'll talk in a moment about how much he really believes those statements or whether this is all bluffing. What I want to focus on first though is the more concrete claim he made there. So he said that EU, and I quote here, want to keep the UK locked into whatever they want to do in terms of legislation. Now the legislation he's referring to here is obviously in terms of environment and labor standards, a little bit of state aid. And whatever the EU says they think is going to affect competitiveness and the impression he is giving is that if he signs up to this deal, we will be forced to introduce any relevant law that the EU introduce. Obviously that would be a bit of a threat to our sovereignty. So is he for real here or is this a little bit misleading? Ursula von der Leyen thinks it's the latter. She's the president of the European Commission and here she is again speaking today. On the level playing field we have repeatedly made clear to our UK partners that the principle of fair competition is a precondition to privileged access to the EU market. It is the largest single market in the world and it is only fair that competitors to our own enterprises face the same conditions on our own market. But this is not to say that we would require the UK to follow us every time we decide to raise our level of ambition for example in the environmental field. They would remain free sovereign if you wish to decide what they want to do. We would simply adapt the conditions for access to our market accordingly the decision of the United Kingdom and this would apply vice versa. So what von der Leyen there is saying is correct. If Britain signs on to the deal is I mean we haven't seen the deal it's important to say that but as we understand what it currently looks like what the EU are demanding we wouldn't be forced to adopt any legislation that was introduced in the European Union but if they introduced legislation environmental standards, labour standards which rose them on the continent then we would have to decide either we raise them to equivalent levels or we face some tariffs. So it's very much the same decision we're facing now do we let our policy be constrained or do we face tariffs it's the same decision that we make now and the same decision we make later if we sign on to this deal you know that hasn't changed we have the same amount of sovereignty. So what is going on here is this you know this it doesn't force Britain to adopt any law that the EU does but it's saying that if you adopt or if you don't follow us in certain laws you'll get tariffs is this going to be the sticking point that means Britain hurtles towards a no deal. Now there are free possibilities here sorry I'm going to lay them out what might be going on here not the substance of what's in the deal but what's the motivations and what is this performance or this grandstanding from both sides all about and the three possibilities are one he's committed so this is Boris Johnson is committed to unrestrained sovereignty and he is so committed that he's willing to go for a no deal so that's the first option that's really what Boris Johnson is presenting publicly that's the official line number two Boris Johnson is bluffing to try and get a better deal from Brussels so what he is what he's putting all of his effort into is to say look I am ready to walk away and the reason he's saying that is because he thinks that increases his bargaining power in Brussels and they might say okay look we'll get rid of this ratchet clause we can sign a trade deal and you don't really have to worry about your your environment and your labour regulations following ours we didn't we didn't demand that from Canada so we won't demand that from you is he grandstanding to try and get that out of them or number three is Boris Johnson just ramping up the drama here for the domestic audience he's kind of already got an idea of what deal he's going to agree to which he knows that the EU will be satisfied with but he needs to make it look like this battle is going to the wire he needs to make it look like he has achieved some sort of concession from the European Union so he can sell himself as a winner you know he likes a dramatic moment I think it's the latter but we'll go through them in turn sort of a process of elimination so why I don't think it's it's the first one why I don't think that he genuinely wants a no deal here is because as I've said if you sign up to this deal the negatives are that if the EU introduces certain environmental or labour regulations that they think makes them less competitive than ours we would have to introduce similar environment or labour regulations otherwise we would face tariffs now why that's not a good reason to not sign a deal is because if we don't sign the deal the only thing that happens to us is tariffs so it's a choice between tariffs or certain tariffs now or possible tariffs in the future so if Boris Johnson is being rational here I don't know why you would pick certain tariffs now instead of possible tariffs in the future remember he hasn't even specified why he would want to you know not not follow the labour and environmental regulations of the European Union that's left unspecified so either thought he might as well put off that problem until he actually knows what divergence he wants the second possibility why I don't think it's likely that what he is doing is bluffing to try and get concessions from Europe is because I don't think that's going to happen Britain has fewer bargaining chips than the European Union at this point in time it would be damaging for certain industries on the continent if Britain were to leave with no deal and there wouldn't be tariff free access to our markets especially for things like the car industry but it's very clear that the EU's priority is to defend the long-term interest of the single market they don't want a big close economy to have proper access to the single market and be able to undercut it they seem to be quite consistent on that point which leaves the third option that this is just a show Boris Johnson is is well aware that he is going to sign some kind of deal which gives the EU some kind of right to impose tariffs if we end up in a situation where we can undercut them in the production of manufactured goods but he needs to make it seem like a battle is going on so that he can then sell it to a domestic audience and one of the reasons I'm so convinced it's this which is not just because I think it's you know in the rational self-interest of Boris Johnson for it to be at this is that if this were what Boris Johnson were to be you know desiring to say ah that the EU are being so unreasonable I'm going to get a concession out of them but it all be basically a bit of a farce it'll be a bit of a pantomime then he would be feeding Britain's political editors a claim that what the EU are demanding is so unreasonable I can't possibly sign it he needs them to tweet that out to say that on television for the next week or so and then afterwards he gets to walk back and say ah I agreed to something that wasn't quite as unreasonable as what it what I initially made out that it was is the important detail there so let's go through what these political editors are saying their role in the pantomime this is Robert Peston this week so he says as I said on hashtag Peston and ITV news at 10 last night I can't see the landing zone that delivers a free trade deal between the UK and EU talking to both sides it is clear that the gap on the level playing field is ideological not pragmatic no deal is overwhelmingly likely so he's very much repeating Boris Johnson's official line this is ideological this is about sovereignty it's not just about sort of technocratic detail this is a political issue of principle and a no deal is very very likely sounds almost you know indistinguishable from Boris Johnson Laura Koonsburg political editor at the BBC is unsurprisingly playing along and I suppose the question is is he just trying to show the EU that he's really serious and he's not bluffing they're worried in Downing Street that the EU thinks they haven't been serious about the prospect of walking away or is he really saying to the country the public businesses all of us everybody watching and listening tonight this is really serious in a couple of days I might pull the plug now when you talk to people in there in the bunker their view is that it is the latter this is a serious moment where he is making a serious statement and wants everyone to clock on to the fact that their view now is the most likely outcome is that we're going to be leaving the departure lounge of the European Union the status quo will come to an end and there will not be arrangements there ready in place unless something really quite dramatic happens in the next what's what's four days it's more than 72 isn't it 96 you saw there Koonsburg gave two options she said he's either bluffing to try and get a better deal from the European Union or he's deadly serious and what he is going to go for is a no deal you'll notice she completely ignores this third option maybe this is all pretend to try and sell his deal to a domestic audience I'm suspicious the reason she doesn't want to admit that could possibly be the case is because then that would out her as a pawn in this in this game fundamentally there was a there was a statement that she made there that I thought was so you know such a pure example of ideology here in the role that political editors play in these controversies their view is that this is a serious moment where he is making a serious statement and wants everyone to clock on to the fact that their view now is the most likely outcome is that we're going to be leaving the departure lounge of the European Union the status quo will come to an end and there will not be arrangements there ready in place unless something really quite dramatic happens in the next four days now again you can see she's absolutely repeating that line that Robert Peston gave she's repeating the line that Boris Johnson said on on the BBC earlier he said on all of the the media outlet she's saying look a no deal is very very likely and unless the EU significantly changed their their offer there's not going to be a deal now what I want to focus on there is the way she says their view is that so what she's commenting on it is the view of people in in number 10 and she says their view is that this is a serious statement and that if the EU don't properly change their their position then it's going to be no deal now that could be their view or it could be that that's what they want the public to think is their view which is why they told Laura Koonsburg that that's what their view is right has she never heard of a spin doctor so so what is quite possible here if and if I'm right and it is that option three that I've talked about that this is all a bit of a charade to start try and sell a deal to the British public then what would you what you would want to do as a number 10 advisor is you would want Britain's journalists to be talking about how serious the government is about getting real concessions from the EU now Laura Koonsburg hasn't mentioned that there is a possible third option and again I could be wrong I could be wrong it could be option one or two it could be that he's bluffing to try and get the EU to cave or it could be that he seriously wants an no deal but she doesn't seem to have even considered that maybe she's being used here that there is a third option that actually the reason they're telling me their view is that a no deal is very likely is because that's what they want the British public to think is their view and I just think that the lack of self-reflection there is concerning I want to go to one final example of why I think Britain's political editors are basically spinning the government line and are basically all part of their pantomime knowingly or unknowingly now this is a comment piece in The Times today it's Britain's paper of record very significant and it's by James Forsythe and it says the EU has dangerously misread Britain too many in Brussels wrongly believe Johnson will cave at the last and fail to realise how sovereignty underpins Brexit this particular person James Forsythe is again a political editor he's political editor of The Spectator the magazine that Boris Johnson used to edit and what The Times don't mention anywhere near that article which I think is quite significant is he happens to be married to Boris Johnson's spokesperson so you've got a comment editor who is basically writing exactly the article that Boris Johnson wants to be written Boris Johnson wants the British public to think that if we get a deal it's because Boris Johnson threatened no deal and got a significant concession from the EU that's what this to my mind is all about he needs journalists to be writing exactly this guff and the ITV political editor the BBC political editor and well his spokesperson's husband are now all writing that and not even considering that this could all be a façade to try and get the British public on side I'm going to go to Dalya in one moment first of all I've got just two more pieces of evidence for you as to why I don't think Boris Johnson is really planning a no deal I could end up looking really stupid in two weeks time if I do I'll put my hands up but I'm pretty sure there is going to be a deal and this is a bit of a pantomime now my my first reason is that whilst Johnson says that a no deal would be wonderful of course he calls it an Australian style arrangement an Australian style arrangement would be wonderful not many people believe this and fairly embarrassingly for the government one person who doesn't believe this is a former Australian Prime Minister this is Malcolm Turnbull who was on BBC Question Time last night well it'll be pretty disappointing I think you'll find out where we have obviously a deal with the EU on WTO terms and there are really some very large barriers to Australian trade with Europe which we're seeking to address as we negotiate a free trade agreement with Europe but Australians would not regard our trade relationship with Europe as being a satisfactory one I mean we do have it's our third biggest trading partner I guess collectively because it's such a big economy but there are very big barriers to Australian exports of agricultural products in particular you know there's a lot of friction in the system in terms of services so you know there's a lot to to aim for and you know I when I was Prime Minister we started formal negotiations over European Australia free trade agreement and but that will take some time so you know be careful what you wish for I mean Australia Australia's relationship with the EU is not one from a trade point of view that Britain I think would want to would want again making the point very clearly the reason Australia have an Australia style relationship is because they've been unable to sign a trade deal they want to sign a trade deal even Australia doesn't want an Australian style arrangement so I can't really imagine why our government would want one it's it's not a good well it's not a deal to have no deal is not a good arrangement people want free trade deals with big markets the EU is a big market it's our closest market we're obviously going to want a free trade deal so it's either we have one now or we have one later I don't see why we'd have more leverage in the future than we do now the other reason or my final reason why I think probably no deal is is pretty unlikely is because Boris Johnson himself has been on record ruling out no deal saying it will basically ruling out no deal I should be clear so if it were to happen now it would be pretty easy to paint this as a political failure this is what Boris Johnson doesn't want he doesn't want to be seen as a failure he wants to be seen as a winner which is precisely why I think we're having this last minute grandstanding where he can come back a victor because if he comes back with no deal then this clip from the 2019 general election might come back to bite him Mr Johnson this morning you absolutely promised your words to leave the EU by January the 31st if we get a working majority government if you get a majority but we all know everyone here knows that a robust economy doesn't just depend on January the 31st it depends on a trade deal with the EU by the end of December so my question to you is do you hear absolutely promise that you will get your trade deal done by the end of December well Beth we already have a deal and we can come out on January the 31st in a state of perfect equilibrium and grace with the rest of the EU because we have we have a zero tariff zero quota position now and I've absolutely no doubt at all that we'll be able to make sure that the EU protects its own interests and has a deal with us that ensures that that continues for the future because after all in spite of the heroic exports of John Smedley and other companies the EU has a 65 billion pound trade surplus with us in goods alone it's very much in their interest to do a deal with us and I've no doubt that they will and if you say if you say can I absolutely guarantee that we'll get a deal I think I can and I'll tell you why look at the look at what we achieved in which I think your question look at what we achieved in three months with the the new deal that I did everybody said it wasn't possible everybody said it would never happen people you remember I think I think you may even express skepticism yourself there uh as it well quite right quite right no quite right but uh we did it and it's a great deal and it will take this country forward and I'm very proud of it so just poor poor I am guaranteed is it in front of all these people I I see out that we already have a fantastic deal and the the the possibility you allude to simply will happen Boris Johnson and his you know all of his entourage have been pushing back very strongly and actually quite reasonably against the idea that they promised an oven ready deal and they haven't got an oven ready deal and how they push back is to say no the oven ready deal was the withdrawal agreement and they're quite right the oven ready deal was the withdrawal agreement that did pass parliament but you can see there in that clip he's not just saying the withdrawal agreement is done and asked it he's saying the trade deal is going to be really easy right and and and you have seen sort of some of the government ministers sort of saying ah it could have been easy if the if the EU played ball but then the question is why didn't you see that the EU weren't going to play ball either their economic analysis is wrong or their political analysis is wrong either way they promised the public something which they now can't deliver well I think they will deliver it but if they were to get a no deal they wouldn't have delivered it