 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is having a wonderful, blessed, happy, healthy summer weekend. Now that summer is kind of in its last leg. Kids, at least here in the Northeast, I know kids of Florida already started school. Kids are starting school next few weeks. Summer is coming to an end. Earning season is coming to an end. And the question is going into this week is this new week coming up here. Is the market rally coming into an end? Obviously that is a very, very open conversation. But the point is, and this is kind of one thing we kind of drive home every single week, right? Or every single video that we do, we don't need to guess, right? We follow the price action. Our Bible, Quran, anything, anything you pray to God for, okay, is technical analysis, right? That is our gift to ourselves. And it puts ourselves in a position that we can look at the market with a very unbiased point of view and put ourselves in a situation that we can make, you know, adult decisions, okay, based on value and where the market is flowing. So let's talk about it, right? So market had an incredible big run here. We're going to use the S&P 500 as a barometer kind of in this point. So market had a big run. And if you've been watching this broadcast, you knew in nausea how big that 50-day moving average was because that broke the cycle, right? That broke that whole cycle of the downtrend. And for the next four weeks, we had a really, really big run, which kind of, I don't want to use the word topped out. I don't want to use that word. But we kind of had a soft stop, right? A soft rejection right at the 4,300 level of the SPX, which kind of translates into roughly 432 on the spouse, right? So any time you attach kind of a movement into a big moving average, and again, there's nothing bigger than the 200-day moving average, you're going to find a little bit of resistance. And obviously this was a rejection that was, you know, pretty clean. And, you know, we started moving lower, a little bit lower and lower. I think what, the more important, if you guys watched Wednesday's video, because there is no, unless my kids have some sort of game during the middle of the week, I usually don't do a Thursday video. But if you guys watched the Wednesday's video, it's literally the video right before this, you know, we talked about two levels here. Two levels, both in the spies, which was going to be 424.50. And we talked this area in the NASDAQ and the Qs, which was 326. If you go back to the last video, you'll see pretty clean areas of interest. And Friday, you know, Friday we continued to break down, right? We continued to break down from the rejection of the S&P 500. And when you look at towards the end of the week, you know, you really don't see a lot of things that are going to put you in a situation that go, wow, this was crazy. First week of losses for the major indexes in a month, super bullish. Again, you could tell that really, really big rally. If you look at the numbers for the week, it really wasn't that bad, right? You saw the S&P lose 1%. The Dow lost less than 2.10%. That's just ridiculously bullish. And the NASDAQ that put in the biggest, biggest range of them all had a 2.5% decline, which is absolutely fine. And the question is going into next week, again, like I said, well, is the rally over, right? Is the rally over or is this just a normal, organic, you know, a little bit of a pullback that we trap shorts on the next rising channel and we start rallying back. The great part about trading is we don't need to guess, right? You don't need to guess here. All you have to do is the same thing that we do every single day is follow the technical views, right? Buyers clean up sellers, okay, stocks go higher. Sellers clean up buyers, stocks go lower. And if you've been kind of watching this broadcast for years and years and years or especially been, you know, been trading via the PS60 theory, you know the most basic thing, concept of PS60 theory, that stocks trade from supply to supply and stocks trade from demand to demand. So, for example, if you look at the spies, okay, they took out supply and then went to the next supply, took out this supply, went to this supply, took out this supply, went to this supply, and yada, yada, yada, and it kind of works towards the downside as well, right? Hit supply, then goes to demand. Goes to demand, goes to demand, goes to demand, and then a great part about it is all these prices are right in front of you, so you don't have to guess what happens if the previous channel gets confirmed. All you have to do is kind of strike your thesis, right? Strike your thesis and your approach and your research to kind of mirror what you're seeing with the price action. And this is kind of where we, you know, this is kind of where we go towards next week. So, let's use the cues, right? Let's talk about the cues because, again, the majority of our work is done in the NASDAQ 100. This is a broadcast for the first time. I'm primarily high technology beta, right? We trade both long, we trade both shorts. Again, everybody wants and loves and feels great about a bull market, but, again, you don't need a bull market. We want it, but we don't need it. All we need is value, and all we need are stocks that are expanding to one side of the market or the other. So, here's kind of where we are to start the week, okay? So, the NASDAQ lost, again, if you go back to Wednesday's video, we talked about the 326.30 level, and you can see it stopped here back to back days. So, the NASDAQ, the QQQs lost the 26.30 area and traded again just via the PS60 theory to the next demand zone where it stopped perfectly right on this 322 level. So, going into next week, you don't have to guess, right? You don't have to have a whole discussion with somebody on social media, any one of your friends, anybody, right? You know that 322 is the bottom of last week's channel, okay? If the market holds 322, we're gonna start moving back up. If the market starts building, right? If the bear start building below Friday's channel 322, well, again, here is your next area of rising support, roughly this 319.5, 320 level. Again, nobody's talking about Armageddon, but again, this is the theory. Stocks go from demand to demand to demand. Same thing with the SPYs, right? So, we talked about, you know, we talked about that 424.5 level, again, we'll show you the pivots in a second. And all it did was go to its next demand zone, which is right over here, this 421 level. So, if the SPYs start building below 421 on Monday or Tuesday, whatever the case may be, okay, they all go down to 419, which is the next demand zone and so forth and so on. Obviously, again, if you're a bull or if you are just a practitioner of organic movements, you know a healthy market doesn't go straight up and you know a healthy market doesn't go straight down. That's why when we were underneath the 50-day moving average, yeah, the overall tone was down, but we had a lot of upward bias, right? It wasn't really that scary. And I even said in that seven-month period, this is probably the most orderly bear market I think I've seen in a very, very long time because you saw so many opportunities to the upside. And once we finally got above the 50-day moving average, that's when we got really, really aggressive and ultimately tapped out at the 200-day moving average on the cues. But that's what's cool about technical analysis and I've always maintained this, you know, there's nothing that you can have at your disposal that is going to be better than the chart, right? That's it. I don't care what news you're trading, what newsletter you're subscribed to, giving you tips and alerts and all that crap that's been fed down your throat by social media. The only thing that we have as all together, we have the same data, right? The same data that I'm watching, you have it as well, Mr. Jones, you know, Mrs. Jones down the road. Everybody who's an active participant in the market has exactly the same information. And if you put your ego to the side, right, and you put your humble hat on and you realize that our opinions, it's not the first time I'm saying this, our opinions don't matter and the only thing that matters is price action off these levels, you'll realize that unless it's a very aggressive news driven cycle which we're not enough, right? We were initially with the Ukraine war and all that stuff. We're not in a very aggressive spin cycle now and what you'll notice is every day that goes by you'll notice stocks are really obeying their levels pretty well, okay? I don't care if you're trading Tesla, if you're trading the ETFs, whatever you're trading, they're honoring their levels pretty well which gives you a lot of time at that level to see who has control. Obviously, if you're looking on the upside, you wanna see make sure your stock is building above the level, obviously if you're looking to the downside you're making sure stocks are building below that level so you can get that measured potential to the next supply of demand zone but that's what's cool about technical analysis. It's not a subjective tool that you can have a great conversation with 26 people. Stock is either going to obey that level or reject that level. That's the most simplistic point of view and I think a lot of new traders, again like I said a couple weeks ago, you're looking everywhere up down sideways and it's right in front of your face so if you start falling in love with technical analysis eventually you're not going to care about being right, you're going to care about creating value and seeing the market in the right way to wind and eventually emotions start to leave because again if you're not biased on one side of the market, if you're not biased to one side of a specific stock you trade, like for example, test is my favorite stock. For me I don't care which way it goes, up, down, as long as it goes, it goes. So as long as you subscribe to the idea that technical analysis really, really works and I'm not talking about for investors, you guys are a completely different conversation. We're talking about for the intraday active trader, day to day trade by trade. Investors are completely different animal. If you believe in fundamental analysis, God bless, that is your, right? That's your, and you're not talking about a day to day basis. You're talking about month to month, year to year. We're talking about day to day interval to interval. So technical analysis is it works. It's really, really good. And if you've been trading for at least 10, 12, 15 years you kind of understand that it's seamless as waking up in the morning, washing your face, brushing your teeth and getting dressed and if you're a new trader, I get it. You're still trying to find yourself, what works for you? What is, you know, what type of personality do you have? What type of trader do you want to be? But eventually the common denominator is all the facts and all the facts are staring at you right in the face. So going into this week, look, I'm definitely watching the bottom channels because again, majority of stocks closed at the bottom, right? So you're not going to be watching for breakouts if the majority of stocks closed at the bottom, but I'm honoring these levels. I know what happens. For example, if the spies hold this 421 level eventually they're going to start bouncing back up. If they start losing the 421 level they're going to start moving down and that's when my research kicks in. And if you look at a lot of charts going into Monday's session you're going to see a lot of stocks that broke support, right? Look at Amazon, right? Look at Amazon, right? It broke this whole little channel here. Nobody's talking about Amazon's going to 100, but there's a trade here, right? You see this whole channel here that it broke? This is the lowest close in this whole channel. So if it starts breaking down this channel is there another $2, $3 in this trade? Absolutely. It doesn't sound like a lot, but remember it's 20 times, right? It's 20 times pre-split. So a 3-point move on Amazon is like getting 60 points before it's split. That's a good move. And plus it's so darn liquid. This is a pretty decent potential if it starts confirming Friday's channel. Look in the video, right? You're going to get to see a lot of names just like as well. Nvidia, they started coming for 170 and 160 short-term expiration. You see how it stopped right on support? It's the same thing as the indexes. Stocks trade from supply to supply and they trade from demand to demand. So if Nvidia starts losing Friday's channel, I mean, look how much room it has. There's a lot of room in Nvidia as well. And you can see a lot of charts like that. If you go through, you know, the Nasdaq 100, you're going to see a lot of names like that. Same thing would happen with Microsoft. Microsoft lost this whole channel here. So if it loses, starts losing the bottom of the channel here, there's another, what, five, six points in Microsoft as well. So it starts, if you go through your research, and again, you could zoom through the Nasdaq 100 within, what, three to five minutes to get a lot of really good ideas for the week. But the point is if the indexes start breaking down below Friday's levels, yeah, there's going to be another technical retrace. If they hold Friday's levels, those definitive levels that we just talked about, then yes, the market's slowly but surely is going to start to rally. But keep this in mind, and this is the most important part, especially for new traders, a stock, and this is a cheat code. A stock cannot go higher if it doesn't take out the previous day's high. The stock cannot go lower if it doesn't take out the previous day's low. If you start your kind of journey with technical analysis, use that, right? Use that and then apply what other indicators or what other studies you want to talk about. So let's talk about Friday's session. Again, market's starting to pull in. Not a lot of things just because, again, a lot of stocks are still above their channels. But again, there's enough, right? And that's the most important. Again, here's the macro cycle and spies. Levels importance 424, 50, 424. That's the five-day moving average. 423 also becomes a big level because that's the pre-market low. Hell three times if it comes in, right? If it builds below, it should flush. Here are spies. It took out pretty much everything. Took out the 424, 424 level, the 423, 423 pre-market lows and traded right perfectly into the 10-day moving average of 421. Again, that 421 becomes the line in the sand for this week. Envax for all you guys. I don't have a position in Envax. I took a scalpel the day before. Envax, earnings low. If it builds below, it can flush. Pivot below 38, right? Here is the pivot below 38 on Envax. That is the earnings low. Once it took that out, it should continue to fade here this week. It's a slow mover, but again, 38 to 36 so far. I think everything's said and done. Should get the 32, 33. If all you guys are holding it, just stay with it. The longer it stays below, 38 the better. Tesla stopped at the 10-day, 888, twight if it builds below, can flush. I thought it could get to 878. 878 is a Freudian slip. 878, the low of the day, was 877.5. The reason why 388.50 was, if you see this right here, you see this channel here? It held a low here twice. You see that? 888 is the low. 888, 888. It held 888 twice and then eventually it gave it all up all the way down to 877.5. Yeah, a decent little scalp there, nothing crazy. Amazon started breaking down on Friday. Also, 140 if it builds below, can flush. Here is Amazon. Here is Amazon. So it took out the 40. This whole channel here that we just talked about, took out the 40 when all the way down to 38. Again, if this 38 starts to build, I think you can see 36, 35 next week. So keep an eye on that. What the hell happened here? Keep an eye on that. Netflix only went down like a dollar and changed and snapped back up a little bit. ADGI, nice little move. Again, some of these small caps have been doing pretty well. ADGI 455, 460 needs to build for a spike move. What up about 20 cents? Again, not a big move, but the small cap movers have been actually pretty decent for the last few days. So it took out the 455.60, went to almost 480 before a nasty little reversal. Oh, yeah, here are the cues. The same thing with the spies. Same thing with the cues. 326 bulls fighting to keep control. That's the 10-day. Remember, that's the 10-day support. The same thing. These are macro levels. If it starts to give up, you can see 324. They actually went down to 322. That's it. And that's basically it. But the one good thing, again, that we have to understand going into Friday's action, there was a lot of speculation money. Obviously, names like BBBY really took a lot of these, I guess meme names and the small cap, I guess lower floats to really higher levels. And like we talked about on Wednesday's level, it might have ended the run. I mean, just quickly as that, as soon as I forgot what the activist name was, the fund was, and when he stole shares, but this kind of could have ended the run. And you see a lot of these meme stocks really reverse pretty aggressively once BBBY did. So again, the question is going into the new week is, well, is this just an orderly pullback? Or was that legitimately the top? And now we're going lower. And again, the answer to that is, guys, trust technical analysis. You don't need to guess. You don't need to wonder. You don't need to have a prolonged conversation. The top of the channel is a good thing. The bottom of the channel is a good thing. Whatever confirms first, that is the direction that it wants to go. Fall in love with technical analysis. And I can really, really pretty much guarantee that technical analysis is going to fall in love with you. Guys, have an awesome, blessed weekend. I hope everybody has a wonderful, wonderful smile on their face enjoying life. And God's help. I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.