 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and folks, we got a two-way market man. We have had some higher prices since last Thursday. You're talking about an S&P that trades from $3,500 up to $3,777. We make that high early yesterday. We come into that high just towards the close. We accelerate last night even at 7 o'clock. You see the acceleration even after hours. Strong numbers from Netflix. We'll jump over to Netflix in a moment. We make it right backed up to about $3,770 and then the S&Ps folks, they trade down almost 2% from where we were last night. It was quite an upside market. You give up almost 60 points from where we were trading at last night at $3,711. We just made lows in the last 15 minutes coming into the lows that we had yesterday. We get some action and currencies man. We'll be talking to our man Teddy Kegstad at 40 past the hour. Great day to have him on when we get some dollar action going on and he's got a webinar coming up a week from today. We'll talk about that as well on the front page of TFNN. Let's jump over to the dollar index man. You talk about a move. You go to bed last night at 1.12. You wake up this morning at 1.13. Just that quick folks, dollar strength in a big way. We jump over to notes and bonds. Lower price, higher yield coming at you in the 10 year. You talk about a move man. Just moves everywhere right now. The 10 year, say goodbye to 4.1%. We are above that price level. We are above that yield level I should say as the 10 year almost got on 109 handle. Take a look at the daily folks. That's a low. It's a lower low. We are almost sitting at lows. You're looking at a 10 year of 4.11%. 4.11% the yield on the 10 year. Absolutely wild as the move continues. You jump over to the 30 year. That's making a new low as well. You go down a full point and 14 ticks in the 30 year at 1.20.204. I talked about the dollar index. You put that thing on a daily basis just well within the channel line. Now we've been talking about the Euro right. We talked about it yesterday man. We talked about the channel line. Look at the reversal right at that channel line. You put this thing on a 15 minute. You basically rolled over right as you got into that yesterday right. You touched it early, early yesterday. Now we don't have volume sheets a little bit but this is about 3 AM Tuesday. We were back into this level right during my program because I was talking about it. You got up to that level last night as well and then finally you sell off from 98.5 almost down a full point to 97.7 in the Euro US dollar. You jump over to the pound, pound down to 1.1234. Now pound a little bit of a different action going on as you're actually coming down to the bottom part. Not quite as well defined on the pound as they have their own issues going on for sure. You talk about your own issues man. It's not stopping folks. To the upside we go. You're pushing almost 150 right now. That impacting of course commodities. Gold down $18 to $1637. The low recently on gold 1622. We were just at a price tag on gold of 1734. You give up about a hundred bucks over the last two weeks in the price of the gold contract. I mean look at we just keep jumping around man. You jump over to the VIX. There's action everywhere in this market folks. The VIX is actually the thing that doesn't have as much action going on right. Look at the action we have overnight in the dollar index in notes and bonds. Look at the reversal we have going on in the S&Ps right now. Okay yeah it is dwarfed folks by the move we've had since Thursday. What is that? Let's look it up exactly. We're dealing with some funny money percentages folks when you're talking about 275.25 points is the low of Thursday to the high of yesterday and that on a percentage basis is 7.86% from low to high. This market and just like that though we give up almost 75 points. That's a 2% pullback from where we were early yesterday. That's a 70 point pullback from where we were at 930. Now we've gone over those numbers but I reiterate those numbers when you look at the VIX because what's going on the VIX? The VIX is just staying right at 3132 right now. No matter what is happening in this market I mean look at the moves we've had in the market. I just told you from where we were Thursday okay yeah we've dropped from 33 to 31, 3350 to 3150. Friday we were back almost at 33 yesterday we were almost at 32 and meanwhile we've got an 8% move low to high. We've got a 2% pullback okay a VIX of 32 represents a move of 2% every one out of three days. You could make the argument right now that the VIX is underpriced with the type of action we have going on in this market. Okay lots to talk about this morning let's jump over to Netflix. Netflix out with their numbers last night and they beat. They pulled back a little bit with the market this morning 278 they spiked to last night they're back to 265.72 now they added 2.41 million subscribers that's probably the biggest data point out of that last night jumping over their numbers Netflix pulling up the headline returns to growth. Added 2.41 and they're looking for more than 4 million the next quarter as well so the streamer added 2.41 million customers in the third quarter the market was looking for something like a million maybe a little bit more they grew in all regions of the world and they expect to sign up another 4.5 million globally this period yeah they had a quote in here now this one's a strong one man thank god we're done with shrinking quarters well hopefully he's pretty confident because if they come back to shrinking quarters in the next quarter or two that quote is going to be brought up so would be something that hopefully he would say if he just had the confidence to say it maybe that is the strength that they are returning and no longer shrinking quarters that was during a webcast interview and yeah they've gotten pummeled recently man but a strong slate of fresh programs attracted millions of new viewers in the third quarter new episodes of stranger things was in there to start things off yeah I mean it's interesting right I mean Dave White was talking about this yesterday and stranger things definitely I actually haven't watched the final season of that yet interesting right I've watched every season up to it I probably will time is valuable folks I don't have all the time in the world watching TV that's pretty low on the totem pole thankfully in terms of priorities in life and where my time goes I'm watching House of Dragons right now that's a good one man if you're into Game of Thrones you haven't watched House of Dragons on HBO check it out in HBO actually has a great deal you can save 40% if you sign up for the year which is not bad if you use it they get some great programs on there but not a ton in terms of what they're pushing out there to really drive people in and they still added that many subscribers to blow away the expectations revenue grew to 7.93 billion beating analyst projections and profit was a big beat to 310 versus a share versus $2 and change the market was looking for there's still in pace for the slowest growth slowest growth in years yeah but that's a turnaround from what the market was thinking folks and where it shifts to there is what happens with their ad supported here they kind of just went public so we'll see where that goes we jump to some of the other streamers Disney got a lift last night on those numbers they're going to pull back a little bit this morning down to about a hundred from 98 let's see how some of the others Warner Brothers Discovery they catch a little bit of a lift as well yeah Paramount gets a little bit of a lift they pull back as well the other one out this morning how about United man I just saw an interview with the United CEO on Bloomberg earlier this morning talking about his numbers he was talking about Boeing as well man talking about that those planes take a look at Boeing yeah that's a tough one man that channel line I've left it on the chart but broke well below it not really intact to any degree broke out of that thing in April of this year and you're in trouble on Boeing man but United they seem like they wanted to buy Boeing planes if they could now United let's see we got two Fibonacci lines let's let's take these off for some clarity here now this does not show today's action which is going to lift it to right about 40 yeah this is gonna be interesting man so check it out we're coming into an area as my dad would say ice we're coming into that area an area of support an area resistance we're gonna talk to our man Kevin Hinks when we get back folks we'll talk to him about a little United get his take as well stay tuned to be right back this to gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project this to gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve this to gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and 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mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors tfnn has launched the Tiger's Den hosted at Discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we get the S&P futures negative by 22 points right now trading at 3710 NASDAQ 100 you negative by about 73 trading down six tenths percent 11000 125 let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks every trading day folks on tiger TV the TD Ameritrade Network with fast market at noon eastern time Kevin Hinks Tom White they do an outstanding program folks they talk about the markets they talk about options they walk you through hypothetical trade setups and man we are coming into the thick of earning season and Kevin Hinks man we got some currencies we get the dollar strength we get the market rolling over but earnings man we got Netflix beaten we got united higher today we got proctor proctor and gamble higher today as well good morning Kevin good morning Tommy O'Brien and happy 35th anniversary of the 1987 crash so watch out baby knows where he was knows where he was that day I'm not sure if you do but I'm not sure your father does Tommy maybe I was in what grade would I be in what's the seven year old in 1987 are they in first grade by then maybe some kicking around pretty interesting man I'm sure I know right time amazing man when we look at today go no further than if you have a word on your phone for economic data your phone probably went off around two o'clock eastern when the UK CPI data came out and it came out hotter than expected Tommy and that's when the dollar rally that's when yields turned up and that is even though we have your right great news out of Netflix kind of a relief rally that you're seeing in Netflix great news out of United Airlines airline strength continuing to be strong and great news out of proctor and gamble with their organic growth of set sales growth of 7% but Tommy as you know we trade a macro economy right now and UK year over year CPI coming out at 10.1% was a bit alarming for most people and so their month-over-month data was 0.5 that's higher than the 0.4 so the two numbers for CPI in the UK which whether you wanted to or not all these economies are related inflation is not under control right now Tommy that's why you see yields where they are that's why you see the dollar where it is and stocks gonna have a tough time today yeah I mean it seems like the numbers persist to say the least man and you have some Fed speak out there today at Kashkari out there one of the headlines I saw is pulled up on Bloomberg saying can't pause rate hikes with core inflation accelerating and man core I mean we talked about we've talked about a Kevin shelter prices a big part of that we're seeing mortgage rates I think I saw another headline right now yeah I got it nine six point nine four I see one mortgage rates the US extends the highest since 2002 interesting to see how our CPI is gonna shape up when you hear Fed speak like that because that shelter component can lag and man we got some high mortgage prices as we've talked about it some pretty interesting issues but yeah dollar last night go to bed at 112 you wake up this morning you're at 113 and that yen yen's about to blow through 150 man commodities trading lower with that in mind Kevin we march forward what are you guys talking about a 12 o'clock on fast market coming up today you know Tommy in early season the shows right themselves so today Tesla IBM lamb research three great names all coming out with earnings after the bell today that's a lineup man Tesla IBM the checkout Tesla to what I mean what volatility Kevin in this market in general I said to you yesterday from the the low of Thursday to the high yesterday just in the S&P's three or four days you're pushing almost an 8% move folks in Tesla I mean boy you got a 15% move Kevin almost from Friday to the 230 action than IBM man been struggling you pull up IBM 123 right now you put that on the weekly up just above 140 but we'll see where that goes well Kevin we appreciate you taking the time on a busy day as always man we look forward to the program at 12 o'clock today and we'll talk to you tomorrow man have a great day Tommy thanks for having me on you too folks tune in every trading day we are coming into earning season man these hypothetical trades they set up folks even if you don't want to trade options understanding how they are priced understanding how they trade understanding how the premium is priced into them that can give you a wealth of knowledge even if you're just trading equities especially when you come into an earning season I mean for example we've talked about it many times but if you've never heard it you jump over to Tesla okay Tesla you talk about a pullback back to 220 right now you've just come into the lows we had from May right the low in May 206 the low in June 208 we just got down to a price level of 204 we're back to 220 right now on Tesla but you jump over to the analyze tab folks you've got the earnings coming out after the bell you've gotten an expected move okay of $13.55 and that is the move that is priced around earnings alone okay now that move comes from the premium that is priced into the options when you talk about the expected move of implied volatility now you want action just through the earnings event today that's $13.55 if you plan on holding the weekly options that expire through Friday then you're talking about an implied move of $17 in either direction you see the plus or minus okay that's saying if you're paying premium here to be the buyer of these options okay and let's just put them right at the money and you want action okay on the bullish side if you're buying calls excuse me left if you're at the money of about 220 as of the close of yesterday okay then you're paying about almost nine bucks you want the same action on the downside you're paying almost nine bucks that gets you to almost $18 and that's where you get the implied volatility so if you're an equity holder and you're coming into this earnings event okay are you comfortable with Tesla potentially moving an implied volatility move of about $17 this week alone because that's just a reasonable amount that this thing can move up or down you're risking it to the downside you're risking it to the upside that's the move the market is pricing in and it goes much deeper than that when you talk about the delta the gamma of all of that check out the program folks they're talking about three great stocks Tesla IBM Tesla's got some volatility let's see the move on IBM coming up for their numbers IBM you're talking about about a 5% move for IBM we jump over to the earnings one of the they are out today after the bell as well yeah and lamb research right LRC X I believe they're out with after the bell they're talking about a 5% move for land research as well and boy you talk about a pullback man 731 to 322 and this thing pricing at about a $16 move for their numbers after the bell as well it's going to be an interesting open folks this dollar index checking out the dollar index we've backed off a bit 1272 we take a look at the notes and bonds yeah no a little bit of a back off you could say pretty remarkable that we make lower lows after where we've been you put this thing on the daily right where did that reprieve come from June to the highs of August folks were 10 weeks later and you had the 10 year down 12 full points with a very little reprieve over that time now what I will say is folks eventually this market will roll over all right the dollar yen eventually will have some red days somewhere in it but not sure that's the case just yet but we have a treat because we will be talking our man Teddy keg stat at 40 past the hour folks and as I referenced he's doing a webinar a week from today great time to do a webinar you can sign up for the tiger 4x report in the front page of TFN and we'll talk to Teddy at about 40 past the hour and we'll get into all those currencies all right let's jump around to some of the fang stocks as we kick things off Amazon they're lower with the market now Amazon is very rate sensitive man this thing has 6% moves like it's nothing right now with what's going on with yields you were as high as 119 you're going to give up $4 in the pre-market you're at 114 78 you're going to be down to buck 50 the one quote I did say Bezos out there on social media I guess and not something too optimistic man as he's and where does he does it do it he replies to a tweet now where is it come on low for me there it is we'll bring this up and we get back probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches as he retweets Goldman Sachs CEO stay tuned folks will be right back Teddy keg stat has just announced a live webinar coming up for subscribers to his newsletter the tiger 4x report Wednesday October 26 that 4 p.m. Eastern time Teddy will be hosting a live 60 minute webinar 4x strategies and fundamentals what is behind the tiger 4x report newsletter in this 60 minute webinar Teddy will be discussing a full breakdown of the markets that influence currency pairs as well as applying those variables to individual currency pairs how to evaluate trading scenarios for risk versus reward as well as a live question and answer session sign up now and gain instant access to this live webinar coming up as well as a month subscription to Teddy's tiger 4x report which comes with a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this live webinar event with Teddy kegs that Wednesday October 26th sign up 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educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com welcome back folks we get the S&P right now negative by 21 points quite a rollover overnight but you heard Kevin Hinks man it's a world economy folks and currencies boy they are shaping everything I keep jumping ahead of them ahead of our interview with Teddy but you can't help but see where they're moving because they had such an impact overnight folks from 112 to 113 in the dollar index we've got notes moving in dramatic fashion right now at the 10 year making new lows at 110 we're back at about 110.07 right now yeah so jumping back real quick before I jump in some other news so Bezos I mean pay attention man you know you don't you don't see CEOs of some of the biggest companies in the world talking about batting down the hatches and recession unless they probably think that way because that is not self-serving in terms of retail etc but he's out there and he's talking about David Solomon retweeting an interview segment clip that he had in terms of a good chance at a recession nonetheless it is what it is I guess at this point so spirit they approve shareholders approve a takeover by JetBlue ending a six month battle to create the country's fifth largest carrier now they have to go to regulators and see if that will get approved the allies now must convince them that that agreement won't harm competition and drive-up fairs for consumers I don't know how it doesn't to be honest they got a lot of flights around the northeast in the in the eastern side of the country taking a look real quick I was just googling the stuff like connections comm I guess that talks about all of them JetBlue okay backing out a bit you can see very heavy up in the northeast right they got New York New Jersey they got a big hub in Boston check it out when you talk about where you're going out of Boston I remember when they first started folks when I first got down here almost in 2005 or so I wonder when the routes originally began think about that man that's 17 years ago you think you're like new right but I remember when they were first starting fairs man they were pumping out fairs for like nothing 59 bucks when they were first beginning routes and they're still sometimes you find 99 bucks when you're talking about Boston to Tampa you talk about spirit okay spirit they got a lot up and down the eastern seaboard as well you take take a look at Boston Boston Tampa is a route many many less flights out of Boston but you see the general departures in terms of the northeast the southeast spirit going further west with more flights it seems and maybe down there but nonetheless they overlap a lot folks so very difficult to see how that wouldn't hurt consumers if it's gonna help the business in some degree in jet blue has just been a disaster man we jump over to their chart they get a lift today probably on that maybe I guess but check out this chart folks I mean I haven't even checked on this thing recently and it's making new lows of 621 last week man talk about blowing it that's below imagine trading below when March 23rd we didn't know if the world would ever be the same and we would travel the same way as we had right and that's where jet blue is so I wouldn't be so quick to think that that's gonna be the deal in their spirit spirit I mean yeah these airlines are all kind of in the gutter compared to where they were pre-pandemic but none of them are really near where you were on the lows of the pandemic right most of them are double that valuation at least United they're up 5.4% on their numbers Delta right now trading at 32 the lowest 17 back then Delta's up 1.7 still pretty low but then you look at jet blue they're in a class of their own man to the downside so be careful catching a lift of 1.5% the market they catch a little bit of a lift on the open from the market you're up about 15 points from where we open there's a pop for you at 37 23 right now we jump over to crude trading in 82 handle 82 70 after turning down to 81 30 yesterday for the price of crude okay let's jump around to some of the other headlines I referenced it to Kevin mortgage rates 6.94% the highest since 2002 that's a 30 year fixed contract rate it's risen for nine straight weeks the index of applications to purchase refinance lowest since 1997 shouldn't be surprising man and look at that spike right I mean you got to go back when 2002 is that last time that we were there man pretty remarkable and mortgage applications obviously related but taking a deep dive to that level I mean we've just been so low for so long I think it's gonna be really hard and yeah the mortgage news daily which updates more frequently 7.15% right now folks and you know what that's not let me see is yeah look I don't know where this data comes from okay but you want to shock a man just Google 30 year mortgage rates I got 7.62% on whatever Google's throwing my way man is that from bank rate where is this isn't this amazing that Google can put this up right and I don't even know where this data is coming from right it's showing me a chart where is this cheddar where is this from maybe the maybe bank rate now they're showing a 30 year fixed at 7.08% still bonkers numbers to the upside man that's gonna impact everything and you know what you have to pay attention to as well yeah and my dad's texting me as we as we speak folks and they're adding points on top of it so that's not even a real rate that they're adding points on top of the fixed rate that you're getting in there that you're paying so it's quite a shift to the upside to say the least and that would make sense when you get the 10 year pushing 4.1% the 30 is gonna be at least 7% at least if not much higher to that degree but markets catching a little bit of a lift right now at the S&P's only down about four let's jump through some of the other headlines I had pulled up here let's see what do we got no not that one yeah jumping back to this one so we speak about prices Nestle warned shoppers to raise for more price increases folks now they have been able to transfer this pretty well volume of goods sold eased by 0.2% the third quarter as Nestle raised prices 9.5% until now consumers have been willing to absorb higher cost despite a bike spike in inflation that's squeezed budgets across the board it hasn't passed on all its higher input cost they say the impact of higher energy okay it's stifling demand for some of it now their margins I was reading this earlier yeah the group confirmed it's 17% operating margin pretty decent though that's the target for the year that would be the second consecutive annual decline so they're seeing seeing declining margins think about that they're raising prices 9.5% and they're talking about declining margins on the second year in a row they're facing some big issues across the board though whether you talk about currencies whatever it is now they make a ton of stuff Nestle it's not just Nestle chocolate bar chocolate bars they got purina pet food they have Nespresso coffees pods among many others full-year revenue growth about 8% and the raising prices 9.5% though right the top end of the previous range the group confirmed yeah and the operating margin declining for the second straight year but nonetheless they're able to raise them we'll see if they can keep raising them folks as the people become a little bit aware of the tightening economy and tightening up their own belt I talked about this briefly as well and this is you solve this one man you solve everything okay but we got some Fed speak out there today and you have Minneapolis Fed chief Neil Kashkari and he's been a bit of a hawk but he's saying core services which is the stickiest of all keeps climbing and we keep getting so surprised on the upside yeah if we don't see progress in underlying inflation or core inflation I don't see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5 or 4.7.5 you start seeing a lot of that folks watch out because that's a strong statement man and it's it's it's a reasonable opinion to say the least folks if you're seeing that sticky inflation why would you stop right there's an argument to be made that there may be some lag stay tuned folks we're gonna talk to our man Teddy keg stat should be a good segment we got some currency action we'll be right back in three minutes stay tuned you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written 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is subject to risk including the possible loss of principle the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ welcome back folks we get the S&P's they give back that little pop we just got right now you're negative by 20 points trading at 37 12 we jump over the dollar index dollar index right now you give back some of that as well still positive by 62 pennies right now 112 75 we take a look at the end dollar yen right now 149 74 almost sitting at the highs and folks let's jump over to our man Teddy kegs that you can check out Teddy's tiger forex report right on the front page of TFN and poke folks he publishes a report weekly every Monday you can sign up for that and we got a treat because a week from today folks he'll be hosting a webinar at 4pm Eastern time for subscribers you can sign up for the tiger forex report you gain access to the newsletter which is an outstanding letter in itself it's $97 for a month folks you get a 30 day money back guarantee no matter what you'll gain access to the webinar coming up a week from today at 4pm that will be archived if you can't attend live you get the newsletter for a month if it's just not up your alley you don't trade for whatever reason you're not into it and folks there's so much great information you're seeing what happens in currencies right now man the market is kind of promoting this thing itself with the impact the dollars have on the markets across the board but check it out folks front page of TFN and we're going to talk to Teddy right now find out about that webinar Teddy Kegsteck good morning good morning Tommy how about that US dollar yen trading I said you know what it seems like it's always a great day to have you on Teddy man but we know you know you've given us an education these currencies they are driving so much of what's going on in this market and before we jump into the dollar Teddy because I want to talk to you about it all man how about the yen pushing 150 we got a lot of gold traders out there gold negative today but if you could real quick talk us through what you're going to be going through and what you've put together for the subscribers of the Tiger Forex report next Wednesday sure so next Wednesday we're going to have a one-hour webinar and we're basically going to go over like how I do they put the Tiger Forex report together going to look at the markets that influence the US dollar and other currency pairs and then we'll break down where they're at where those trends are and what kind of influence they should have on the different currency pairs that we're going to talk about which will be all your major ones like the pound the euro the yen and the Aussie the New Zealand and the Canada it's awesome and I can't wait subscribers I'm sure it'll be some definite value to say the least and let's jump into it man last night how about that dollar index right you go to sleep at 112 and you wake up at 113 in the market obviously reacts what's your take on on the dollar as we kick things off well very strong it's not hard to believe it because I mean look at the bond the 30 year bonds in the tenure notes you know I mean if you look on a weekly chart of both of them they've been in the red for you know this is going on you know since the beginning of the summer time there is no wilds up week whatsoever you know and even on the daily basis we've made new lows again so I think that is definitely driving the surge it's definitely helping to help lift the US dollar yen to towards 150 you know we've had a 150 price target since the beginning of the summer and I was looking for it to be the end of October beginning of November so now we're we're budding up against that right now I would use caution if you're already long keep your stops tight and look for a correction of pullback I would look to be a buy dip kind of scenario for if you're not in the trade I would wait to buy it lower I wouldn't try and jump in right now I'm not afraid of buying new highs or selling new lows but in this situation I would use caution as we hit the 150 level because I mean we could easily see I mean we had just a month and a half ago you know a seven handle range that happened in the course of just over an hour in the US dollar yen so if the elbows kick and the stops start to really get run you know if the dollar has any type reversal day you might see a three four handle pull back in the US dollar yen so you gotta be prepared for that it's a great point I mean the moves are just so large right now even when I pulled up the S&P I had said to our man Kevin Hinksteady I talked to him Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday and from the time I talked to him Thursday this Tuesday the S&P was up almost 8% man 8% from Thursday to Tuesday so point being right you get some pullbacks and man the market is just moving everywhere what about crude Teddy as we pull back to about 82 bucks we've seen quite a little pullback in the last what five eight days in crude as well. Yeah it's nice you know this crude is definitely stabilized over the past couple of months but I don't see it as being a bear I see this as just being an extended little range trade that's going on for the oil market I can't see how we would trend lower into the holidays in the new year like I don't see us going from Iraq going down to say like 70-65 dollars something like that over the next few months I see us going back up above 100 actually by Christmas time or New Year's and how for the listeners that haven't heard you talk about it and maybe this is something that you could even talk about and maybe you had planned on it when you talk about the webinar but you've given such a great education in crude and especially how that relates to producing countries like the U.S. and then how that ties to a country like Japan could you just talk about that a little bit and how that shaping kind of what's going on in this market right now or if that's one of the impacts you're talking about where is that in the in the conversation that you look as you look at the dollar especially with the yen. Well you know what that's actually a really good question especially because now we have this talk coming out of Washington that our president wants to put a ban on exporting oil you know so if they do that that means that that's really going to impact the price of oil globally and I think that would also lift the U.S. dollar yen even much higher than it is because we supply oil around the world Japan's one of our allies and we do send oil that way you know so if we now start saying we're no longer going to export you know that means that global supply is going to there's going to be a supply chain issue with that you know we are we're already not the net exporter like we were you know but we're definitely still are exporting oil if we shut off those those lines of you know energy I think that the U.S. dollar yen could see probably an extra ten dollar rally I mean we could there's there's no intervention coming from the Japanese I'm stunned I mean I said this already you know six months ago when they had the first you know speak about saying how they were going to defend their currency when it was trading in the 120s you know and they said 130 was the line in the sand and then they had a couple weeks back where we had that big day with the you know where they said oh we're going to finally do something but they didn't you know so the reality is they're letting their currency crash and every time they speak they get a little correction but it doesn't hold because there's no real they're buying their bond market so you can't buy the bond market and support your currency at the same time yeah indeed yeah it's pretty wild um and yeah that was I think it was September 22nd pull-out chart almost a month ago it's crazy how time flies and since then one day of red three more days of red everything else green since then September 22nd on the daily basis on the dollar yen we got a question Teddy we got a caller all right let's jump to our call we got a caller Jeff from Philly Jeff good morning morning how are you doing well man how are you uh doing well i'll try not to take too much time a quick question for uh teddy please uh what i want to ask is uh suppose that you've been trading effects using futures for a few years but you're going to be uh but let's say that you switch or you need to switch to um trading effects in the cash market as opposed to the futures would you i noticed that the cash market seems to be a lot more spiky in the futures market and my question is would you trade uh i'm a pattern trader would you trade any differently the cash market than the futures market as well you know as far as the price action like in other words maybe keep a wider stops or you know would you trade it any differently that's a fantastic question um there is a big difference between trading the cash market and the futures market first of all is your liquidity issues in the cash you definitely have much more liquidity than you do in the futures um there's also you have rollovers that you have to deal with when you're trading that you know because there's always the front month so you know you have march september december and uh in june you know so those time periods around rollover you have to be very cautious about your position and whether now you roll that position because of the spreads i tell you steady can you hang on one second all right hang with us jeff hang with us all right because that's a great question and we'll come right back and we'll jump right back into it stay tuned folks we'll be right back in three minutes tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger stand available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of 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please sign up and we'll jump back into it we're talking our man jeff from philly and go for it teddy you were just talking about some of the differences between futures and the cash okay great question from jeff so to get back to his point especially says he says he trades patterns um the difference between futures and forex can be a great significant greatly significant when it comes to your type of trading um i mentioned the rollovers and expirations if you're in around the expiration months like basically like for june expiration if you were between may middle of may and middle of june you probably if you had a pattern that was a buyer sell signal that's going to last for a week or two you would rather be in the cash markets okay in the futures markets if it's not during the roles and the reason i say that is because you'd have to flip your contract so let's say you're long okay in a position and you're going into rollover depending on if the spread widens out or in you may when you flip explain you have to get get out of one contract and get you know basically sell out of your one long and then buy ins and at the future the next front month that spread could cost you money on your trade so you may be right on the long position but because you have to roll the contract in the middle of that position you may not see as much of a profit as you would you may see more it depends on how the spreads moving now the other thing is like for the fx markets like for instance me i've been long the us dollar yen for over 1415 months great to be long and have that trade on the only thing is i've been paying interest for 1415 months so especially during sideways periods that definitely even if i'm not losing money technically on the price i am losing money on the on the account balance because of the interest payment okay so those are factors you want to take in if you're doing a really long-term position fx is brought the fx cash is probably the way to go but you have to be mindful of your interest payments and the futures except for during rollovers that can be actually a much more lucrative way to trade the of those moves so absolutely great question jeff thank you so much for the call and calling in man we appreciate it teddy thank you so much join our web on wednesday jeff we'll talk to you wednesday and i look forward to the webinar next week teddy man thanks so much folks see you next week check out teddy's webinar on the front page of tfn and our man basil chatman's up next have a great wednesday everybody