 Aloha and welcome to Figments on Reality season two, episode two. And today is November 8th as we broadcast live, of course, it'll be available after that. And I'd like to wish my stepson Thomas a happy 50th birthday. Donaldson was born 50 years ago in Taipei, Taiwan. What a coincidence because guess what we're talking about today. And that's part of the reason China, Taiwan and the US and what you think I should what I think you should know. Now, my wife, I would tell you that I have been agonizing over this show, not because it's not worthy of broadcast broadcasting or because I don't have things to say it. But there is so much to say. The issues of the past, the history, the people, the place are all very complex and rich and interesting. The present, on the other hand, is pretty scary and pretty darn simple. And I want to focus on that dangerous present. But first, let me give a disclaimer. I always say that Figments on Reality is not political and I try to avoid vitriol. I'll do that same thing today and not take sides between China and the US and Taiwan, but try to give a perspective that acknowledges the risk and seeks to mitigate it. Well, maybe that's a little haughty of me to think I can change the world, but what the heck, at least I'm trying. So if we're going to talk about Taiwan, you've got to know a little bit about it. I can't give you the whole history, but let me start by mentioning that I talked about Taiwan in my last Figments on Reality two weeks ago when I was talking about acknowledging the history and not hiding it. And here are a couple of scenes from tourist stops in Taiwan on the left, a poster describing headhunting from some of the indigenous people of Taiwan that went on into the early 20th century and then a depiction of a political prisoner camp on Green Island down in the southeast side of the main island of Taiwan. And those both are important memories to me because they do present the dark side of history in a reasonable way, and they don't try to hide the history. And that is sort of typical Taiwan because it's got a very diverse history. Right now it's part of China as we'll acknowledge, but they have their indigenous people and language that spread in various forms throughout Asia. They had Chinese immigrants, they had Japanese immigrants and occupiers, they had Dutch, they had Spaniards. They had all kinds of influences on the island, but where we are right now is it's part of China. So what? It's an island. How big can it be? It's about as big as Maryland. So that would make it the eighth smallest state in the Union. But it's got almost 24 million people in the population. And that would make it the third most populous state in the Union. That tells me it's pretty densely populated in the cities, the mountains not so much because there's a very abrupt mountain range that runs down the center of the beautiful island. But it's a beautiful island with beautiful people and kind of a unique aloha spirit is what I can best compare it to. That's evolved over the 40 years that I've been going to and from Taiwan. And it is economically important. It's the 21st largest economy in the world. That's out of two hundred and thirteen that are listed at the list that I viewed. And it's important to the international order because during the last 50 years or so, it has developed a robust, vibrant democracy. And now we have the complication of the fact that it's actually part of China. So that's Taiwan, an island nation, beautiful people, democracy, economically important. So so so what's the deal? What's the problem? The problem is, and I'm going to say this with absolutely purposeful hyperbole. And this is why you should care is, in my view, the end of the world could begin in Taiwan. Let's say that again. The end of the world could begin in Taiwan because as implausible as it is, it is certainly possible that China could attack Taiwan to force reunification, that the U.S. could be drawn into such a conflict. And it's certain, if that happens, that it won't end well. And it could even end in nuclear conflict, really, really. Now, you say, how can this be? By the way, I'm not. This is not my first rodeo of addressing this. I have been to not just Taiwan, but China several times and get a picture here at the University of Beijing with some of faculty members, where we talked specifically at length in Beijing about the Taiwan issue. And point I made to them was you guys shouldn't care about Taiwan because you have such an imbalance of power. And here's how different China and Taiwan are. The landmass of China is almost 300 times bigger. The population is 60 times greater, the economy 20 times greater. OK, I'm rounding up, thanks, folks. And then a tremendous military advantage. So why care about it? Why be bothered that you haven't achieved reunification yet? I'm going to get more to that reunification issue in a bit. But the fact of the matter is China does care and she cares a lot. And that this is an issue that could precipitate conflict that led to war between the US and China and even the global because it wouldn't go badly and it wouldn't go easily. So how did we get here? What's what's the context for this? Flashpoint, if you will. Well, China used to mean nationals China back before 1949. The Chiang Kai-shek and the nationalists were the government, certainly that the US recognized the Mao and the communists prevailed over Chiang Kai-shek in the nationals. Then the nationalists beat feet to Taiwan. As I said, Taiwan's history was diverse. They just kind of unloaded the Japanese occupiers. They now had, frankly, mainland occupiers who came in and established an mainland government before 1949. But then Chiang Kai-shek and the nationalist seat of government moved to Taipei and took over the place. For some time up until the year that Thomas was born, 1971, the nationalists remained sort of the face of China. In fact, it was called the Republic of China, even though the capital was now on the small island of Taiwan. In 1971, U.N. recognition shifted to the PRC, the People's Republic of China, Communist China, and that that became China to the world. And the political geopolitical importance of Taiwan began to fade and their recognition was diminished. Part of that decade-long process was the normalization of relations between the US and the mainland China, the PRC, People's Republic of China. And as that occurred, they had to reach some sort of an agreement on how to view the question of Taiwan. And while the history, again, I've just touched the surface of it, is complex and debatable, the bottom line is the US and China agree that Taiwan is part of China and should eventually be reunified. They also agreed that any reunification should be peaceful and as part of a concession to the more conserved developments of the US government at the time, the Taiwan Relations Act was passed that actually codified and built a legal requirement for the US to ensure such a transition was peaceful and to help prepare Taiwan for its legitimate defense against any not-peaceful attempt to reunify. So there we are. Taiwan is part of China, but it's separate. And China is getting impatient with that separation. We're still committed, the US to defend, to help prepare for its defense. And it's very likely that we would be drawn into it. So all of this sounds like sort of a parlor game of geopolitics or even a high school argument between classmates about what click you're in and all that sounds kind of silly, but it's not silly. And without legitimizing their views or endorsing them also, it's certainly not silly to China. This is a big deal, a core interest. I understand it, but why escapes me still. This is a big deal to China and it's become a big deal personally to Xi Jinping since about 2016 or 17 when the current government in of President Tsai took office in Taiwan. He has become more and more vocal and committed, President Xi Jinping of mainland China to reunification. And the Chinese have been triggered by anything that implies nation state status to Taiwan by the US arms sales that are certainly mandated and almost required by the Taiwan Relations Act to contribute to the self-defense of China by any public embarrassments where the wrong name is used at heck with an NBA official or players says something wrong. China goes pretty ballistic about this, but like it or not, these sensitive sensitivities are real and they are provocative to China. And there is the potential they could provoke a conflict with global ramifications. That's that is pretty simple. China wants to reunify Taiwan. They're prepared to do it by force and could do so. And the US would be drawn in. Let's take a quick break and ruminate on that while I tell you that I'll be back with another pigments, the power of imagination next week. Don't have my guest locked down yet. I need to make a phone call as soon as I finish this webcast. But I hope they have somebody to talk about imagining he could change the world. And certainly with regard to China and Taiwan, we need to change the world and change the dynamic a little bit. So how could war actually happen? What would happen to precipitate war? We've seen some. Rhetoric words, not actions, trigger actions from China, specifically massive overflights, the greatest ever of airspace in dispute. I'm going to avoid taking sides about who's the airspace it is, but it's in dispute and is required to military reaction from the Taiwan Air Force. Massive overflights, up to 150 aircraft. And simply the potential for accident or misunderstanding could trigger conflict. Because there is a such internal interest in China. And the reunification and largely generated by the Chinese government. Let me go into that a little bit. This issue is a hot button throughout the People's Republic of China. The government has chosen to make it that. Again, not to legitimize or delegitimize it, but the flames have been fanned to some degree by the Chinese government to make this a hot button issue. And as we see the government of President Xi Jinping continue to solidify and expand its control over matters inside China. This is one issue they have to deal with that kind of painted themselves into a policy corner where they talk tough. And to malify the people, not in a democratic sense, but in an unrest since they see themselves as having to do it. And if there's an economic downturn or another cause for unrest. This is going to put further pressure to reconcile the issue of Taiwan. It could start by by inadvertent provocation from the United States, because I'm quite certain that the United States would never seek to foment comment. Of a foment conflict on Taiwan. But we could make a mistake as President Biden last week did when he said we had a commitment to defend Taiwan. And do we have a commitment not specifically stated? We are recorded by the Taiwan Relations Act to contribute to the defense in preparatory matters, and we say that any transition must be peaceful in nature. But we didn't say we're going to join the fight by stating that in public. And the administration has walked it back as an error. But that is highly inflammatory to the Chinese. Equally inflammatory, the statements of Chairman of the Joint Chief Chiefs of Staff Milley, that we could absolutely defeat Chinese military attack against Taiwan. Okay, that's first of all, militarily debatable, not the purpose of this show. But those are things that don't need to be said in public. And that we ought to stay away from. We don't need to foment this problem. And yet another complicating possible provocation, President Tsai acknowledged a very small military presence in Taiwan. Been there for years. The Chinese, I'm absolutely certain, have a gazillion spies in Taiwan. They probably not only know the name of every US service, member of who is or has been in Taiwan in the last 20 years. They probably have a full dossier, but it hasn't been publicly acknowledged. These missteps and public confrontations on Taiwan are incredibly dangerous, because of the self-imposed pressure within China to do something about reunification. And once we get to some sort of a flashpoint, I think you'll be looking at something that me and a friend who is an intelligence analyst has worked on a report while I was still on active duty called War Without End. And our belief was simply that once a war started in and about Taiwan, that it would draw in the US and it would cascade and spill over to the South China Sea and even Northeast Asia and become global in nature and be horribly destructive to the world. Now, what about Millie's comments that we could defeat the Chinese, General Millie's comments? I've said many times that I could defend Taiwan with a rifle company. I think I could, just in terms of the military sense, because the terrain is so rugged and what terrain isn't so rugged is highly urbanized. It's a very difficult place to fight. Again, this is not a military webcast. I'm not going to go in there, but we can learn something from history. And I'm going to build up this knife. OK, this is a ceremonial knife, Taiwanese hunting knife from the indigenous people that I received in 2008. I actually watched it be made for me on the island of Kimoy or Chinmen, very close to the mainland shore. And the reason that's significant is because it's made from spent artillery rounds from the second Taiwan Strait crisis. Go ahead and Google that because I don't have time to get into all the detail that I want to get into during the second Taiwan Strait crisis, which the US Secretary of State at the time called the first serious nuclear crisis. And we're now many years later with a lot more nukes. The mainland Chinese. Executed a sustained artillery barrage on the island of Chinmen, which is a lot smaller than Taiwan, but about the size of Oahu, if I remember correctly, how many artillery shells about 500,000 rounds over four to five months, 500,000 shells and Mr. Wu's knife shop there in Chinmen makes these artillery or these knives out of spent artillery shells. And I watched by being made while mainland Chinese tourists were out in his storefront buying other knives made from shells that his country had had provided to the island of Chinmen. It's an interesting twist on the swords and applause shares theme. But my point is 480,000 shells fired into the small island. They did not prevail. Modern war would be different. But the outcome is likely to be the same. Some sort of disaster stalemate or at best for mainland China, a Pyrrhic victory, one where the cost far exceeds the benefits. China has modernized and expanded its military in recent weeks. You've seen many reports about how surprising that is to some in US military leadership. Shouldn't be absolutely should not be. And one of the most troubling elements of that expansion noted again, just in the past few days, is the very large expansion of their nuclear arsenal and the associated capabilities. So war would be different, not just because of that warfare stuff, but because of the gray zone warfare that would come out of it, where the conflict would at the same time be executed in in cyberspace, in space exo atmosphere space in the economic domain. And that makes it more modern and, I guess, cool. But far more devastating globally means that nobody, no nation would be safe from the impacts of a war that involved the US, Taiwan and China. So is this going to happen? General Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, mentioned earlier, said last week that in his assessment, they're not likely, China is not likely to attack Taiwan in the next couple of years. So this is the Aspen form. What? Excuse me. In the next couple of years. And to state that as a matter of fact, holy crap, you've got to be kidding me. The next two years, if we can't establish deterrence or understanding because for a decade, this is really bad the next two years. That's all the chairman could could offer up. I wouldn't say guarantee, but holy moly. I mentioned the president's statement about our commitment to defend. And when you add to that Chinese hypersensitivity about anything that we say about Taiwan or that Taiwan does in and within Taiwan. Can you go back to what I said, Dope and Prince? Open the episode, rather. I'm not reading it, so I get it right. The end of the world could begin in Taiwan. The end of the world could begin in Taiwan. This is more dangerous in North Korea. It's a bigger threat in terms of consequence than terrorism, global terrorism. And it may not be as inevitable as climate change, but climate change won't matter. If we allow a nuclear conflict to stem from misunderstandings in Taiwan. I really believe I've spent enough time in China working with Chinese friends and officials and quite a bit of time in Taiwan. I'm looking at the US national security landscape. And I just simply don't think there is enough appreciation for how serious and dangerous the situation is for China, Taiwan and the US, the title of the show. So that gets me to what I have to say and why I'm making this webcast, this particular webcast, what would FIG do? I hope somebody's listening, folks. FIG would make peaceful resolution of the Taiwan question, the top priority of US-China relations, period, period. Have the greatest consequences? It should be a topic at every discussion of officials at every level. It's got to be a touchstone that both sides have to go to to avoid the kind of miscalculation that I described that could have such disastrous consequences. Having said that, they should do this in public and basically shut the or in private and basically shut the hell up. The this is not a discussion. The discussions on such sensitive issues don't do well under the light of day. This needs to be in the background. But all the time, I'm the president, but not visible. Halfs to be more quiet. Both sides, one thing both sides should do publicly is acknowledge state and restate that forceful reunification would have no winners. And I think China has to see that. If they if they use force, that's not a win wins. That's not a win situation for them. Should be a last resort. That's not good for anybody. We should say that a lot. Well, what should the United States do? We have a commitment to under the Taiwan Relations Act. We also have a commitment under the one China policy to treat China as the one China and acknowledge Taiwan as part of it. We ought to we ought to do that, maintain that commitment and state it as ambiguously as we can and not paint ourselves in the corner with China. We need to understand and live with Chinese hypersensitivity. In the past when I've talked to my friends in China or from China, it kind of drives me crazy. But the truth, it is what it is. We can't wish for an alternate reality. They are hypersensitive to all things regarding Taiwan. And we need to be careful. And if we're going to have difficult conversations, they should be done in private and correctly. China, on the other hand, and I'm sure my Chinese friends will like me telling them what to do, but I've got to do it because this is what would fig do part. If I were China, I would establish military hotlines in operational channels with the United States as Secretary of State Blinken recommended to Wang Yi in Rome last week. For all the friction between the US and Soviet Union, the hotlines were important. And we have suggested this. We, the United States, several times China. Now, as things seem more dangerous than ever with regard to Taiwan, we've got to have those hotlines. I don't think this is going to happen, but my second bit of advice for China is to moderate your internal commentary on Taiwan. It's not helping. It's not helping you. I'm not a political consultant in the Communist Party of China, but just ratcheted down a little bit here, folks. And finally, the last thing I do is incentivize reunification because they're doing the opposite. So if they want to reunify with Taiwan, the statements of a Chinese official earlier that people who've supported independence for Taiwan in Taiwan would pay the consequences after unification, that doesn't make anybody on Taiwan wish for the opportunity to be a part of mainland China. Neither does the example of Hong Kong. So with Chinese characteristics, they really ought to try to incentivize some sort of reunification. OK, so the US should continue our commitment quietly. We ought to be understanding of their Chinese hypersensitivity. Chinese would be good to ratchet it down and realize that there's no goodness for them in a kinetic military solution. They should incentivize reunification. What should Taiwan do? Man, I struggled with that preparing for a show. I don't know, you know, pray for the best because you're stuck between two very large and often very clumsy powers who don't at the current time seem to fully appreciate the potential conflicts of turning your beautiful island into a bad fit. I hope that changes. It's best for all China, Taiwan, the US and the world. That's my reality. Please join me next week on November 15th for Figma's The Power of Imagination. As I said, we'll talk about changing the rules. And I would like to thank, as I always do, think Tech of Hawaii, a great nonprofit that puts this and many other shows on and gives us citizen journalists a chance to share our views with the world. So I'll see you next week on Figma's The Power of Imagination and the following week, Figma's On Reality. Please click like and send any comments you've got to info at phase-1.com. That's all for now. Thank you and aloha.