 All right, good morning. How are you today? Everything all right So you receive my email. I hope this is something that encouraged you a little bit Is there anything complicated in terms of mathematics? Greater or equal to 70 then this well, this is simple arithmetic So if you perform well in the final exam Your bad performance in the midterm exam can be offset. So it is all up to you from now on and As I indicated there will be no bonus in the final exam There will be most probably four shorter answer questions So you will be given like two questions on one side of page and two questions on the other side. So each from being 25 points and There will be more specific and as I said Questions that will not necessitate long writing. So if you attend classes starting today Till the end of the semester and make your readings. This is essential Then there should not be any difficulty for you to recover from your losses the damage control of midterm exam. So I hope this is you provided some sort of an impetus for you to do a better job I don't know why you perform so bad as I said it was the Worst ever performance in my 13 year career at Pilkent Well, part of to blame can go to me. Well, I don't know and but I believe you should definitely Think about where you've done wrong, right? So these are the questions actually the questions I asked over the last three years almost exact same questions and as I indicated in my email when I was a student we're doing a Very good investigative job as to what kind of questions or which questions Professor's asked in the previous year. So if you had just a very very brief Research, you could have had access to my previous exam questions. And by the way, I Said almost every single one of them in the class that this is a very good midterm exam question Here is the question and here is the answer and the answer we're not only in podcasts here, but also in the PowerPoint so I Think much of the blame must go to you. So just think about it Try to make this analysis where you have done wrong What where things have gone wrong and if it is in your interest to have a good grade not only a passing grade but a High grade higher grade than you expect Well, of course one of the easiest Instructors here at Blicken from whom you can get high very high grades, right? So I have no problem by with giving students a's a minuses b plus whatever So I don't count as to how many I should give or not It is all up to you if you show your willingness your enthusiasm enthusiasm to learn I'll do more than your Effort, all right You must have followed the most recent developments in the world the most important one Something that you know start putting a smile on our faces is these leaks or the WikiLeaks There is no single individual on the surface of the earth who doesn't speak about WikiLeaks wherever you go Well, this is the subject matter and I one of the finest jokes that I heard I think that was last week during one of the TV talk shows or just one of the news broadcasts that while in the past diplomats used to talk to the journalist on the condition of being off the record now the Journalists are going to talk to diplomats on the condition of being off the record So well, especially people like us academics politicians deputies Intellectuals who are from time to time invited to Receptions protocols dinner tables and things like that at discussions, of course people will be this time more careful Well, I used to be because at least I knew That the guy who was talking to me was a diplomat and his job was quote-unquote Spying so you have to pay attention to what you're saying because whatever you say will be recorded Maybe not in tape recorder, but just you know some notes will be taken and will be reported So therefore this is something that actually revealed many of the information Which would not be otherwise available for at least next 20 30 50 years as I remember The last time I mentioned this that was about when I made this short brief about Comments about your exam performance and I said International relations is such a field that we deal with indeed uncertainty And we try to make some sort of a science out of it and that in the absence of correct information or accurate information our job would be and Still is actually because we colleagues have not revealed all the information that we need but most of them or Significant proportion of them that our task would be to figure out what much what would be the situation exactly so This is an important situation which revealed something very very important because Some of you might have even criticized me for some reason and I would understand it Thanks so much attention to Iran's nuclear program And I try to explain each time as to why I'm using this as a template because in each part Even though this is a power point in each part we make references to Iran situation, of course Iran's Perspective Iran's position as a country, but we also pay attention to Russia's US Europeans and other countries, so therefore as these leaks or WikiLeaks have revealed To the world that and this is something that was just yesterday asked to Mahmoud Abbas the president Palestinian president during his official visit to Ankara that it was so understood from the WikiLeaks that the Arab leaders who used to be known with their antagonism to Israel they with their Hostility to Israel actually were not as much hostile as they used to be in the past But their primary concern was not the situation of the Palestinians, but that of Iran's nuclear program So this is something I mean almost overriding everything and wherever you go you go to Lisbon Summit, for instance One of the most important topics was whether the missile defense would be adopted and if so under what conditions and One of the conditions being the condition that was put forward by Turkey The Iran's name or any country's name would not have not or should not be Mentioned in the in the whatever decision or text that would be adopted or you go to this nuclear security summit for instance back in April which was convened by The United States in Washington DC on April 12th 13th of April and again one of the most important topics was Iran Iran's nuclear program is to how to handle it and now you let me just watch the news channels and the first or second Most important news Broadcast is about the talks that have started just yesterday in Geneva Switzerland about what to do with respect to Iran's nuclear program between Iran and the so-called p5 plus one The permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany So therefore this topic is important It has many facets. It is not just about what Iran is doing what Iran has done in the past What are the Iranian ambitions, but you know, it's all about what others are doing Are likely to do in the future if things go in a certain direction or in the other direction and there are also subjects with respect to different proposals one of them being as I sort of highlighted here For you for instance for those I mean I had made this an attachment. It's now available on my website This is something which has just came out November December. I mean right this month November December 2010 2010 and it is one of the four or five articles which were invited by the editor of the journal To discuss what or have to move forward So you see the world stuck in the Iranian nuclear question It is not something that is going to go anywhere in the foreseeable future and something that is going to tackle our minds and Of course, I cannot speak about its content, but it that was also maybe The most single most maybe important topic during a very high level Discussion conference or round table that I attended over the past weekend so in England So therefore, this is something that we have to stick to I mean not just to look what Iran is doing What they have done in the past or they are going to do in the future But it is important to see what kind of international security environment we have at the moment and what kind of Consequences this Issue the Nicar program of Iran might have for the Middle East as well as for the wider region and the entire globe because It is not something that has only one or two consequences for one or two countries. It's something that is Indeed overarching that has overarching consequences implications. So far we have discussed How this issue came out what was Iran's initial attempts Attempt to what were these attempts how they have managed to build the infrastructure during the Shah period and What kind of difficulties they face when there was this Islamic revolution and what were the Initiatives taken by the Iranians to overcome the obstacles in advancing Their nuclear program and we have come to the point where they have, you know Establish significant infrastructure both technical and scientific and actual that was a consequence or a result indeed of Iran's agreement or the contract that was signed between Iran and Russia back in 1995 and in order to complete the facilities that Germans and French actual German Germans in Bush here Left unfinished. So then we have seen especially after 9-11 2001 When the world attention actually especially primary the United States attention was again Fixated on the Middle East then came these revelations about Iran's secret construction clandestine Facility in atoms the enrichment facility. I talked about the significance of enrichment and and possessing that Iran actually Has yes, it's processing capabilities are at the laboratory scale not not so significant But still something that can be further advanced provided that they have enough Scientific skills which I believe they have and also investment. So it seems like they will be content with I mean happy with the Existence situation in terms of the enrichment capabilities that they have probably they don't want to create additional problems by investing in large Scales in reprocessing of plutonium. So Natanz facility and couple of Other facilities in some of which were already on earth. It's I mean Coombe for instance the the secret enrichment facility in Coombe came out as a result of the spying activities of intelligence agencies of the United States and and Western European countries So therefore we have looked at this situation and the United States has a certain position it it has an an Edamand opposition to Iran's nuclear program in United States once Iran to Quit its enrichment. Although. This is something provided that Iran doesn't have any Mitra ambitions. It is actually within the confines of the nectar non-proliferation treaty. So enrichment as well as the processing are Iran's right stemming from the MPT the text of the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nectar weapons, but of course there is one condition attached Which is a very important condition and it is very difficult to see if Iran actually Fulfills the this condition which is not to divert from peaceful to Mitra So the whole debate is there I mean very Iran is actually doing things that are proscribed that are prevented that are Not allowed in the MPT text or whether Iran as they claim to be doing is not doing anything wrong and it they only Iranians only Intertain their treaty rights. This is something which is still in the air. There is only one way to have an almost exact Accurate estimate about where Iran does really do anything wrong or not is to dispatch the IAEA inspectors to that country Let them go to every single facility facility that the IAEA inspectors would like to go take samples from the air from from the Water from from the soil and make all these analysis and then we can come to a conclusion The world can come to a conclusion where Iran is really doing anything wrong But the only way to do it to do this is of course for the IAEA to have the permission to go to the Facilities that they would like to go but for this to happen of course IAEA must be able To use the Rights that are that are granted to the agency by the additional protocol This additional protocol was signed but not ratified by by Iran. It was Adopted as if the additional protocol very enforced for a very short period of time starting from November 2003 Until I would say early 2005. I believe it was something like to March 2005 within this period the IAEA had this ability to go to Iran's Suspected facilities. Well, not exactly as if additional protocol were enforced But almost Iranians have allowed the inspectors to go visit wherever they would like to visit because they said we have nothing to hide We are transparent. Although it is not our obligation because Iran's Facilities are being inspected the safeguards agreement is based on the previous model protocol and This is let me tell you a very good final exam question What are the differences between model protocol addition protocol? Why is it this important? Why this is important? And I explain if you want further explanation I would suggest you to watch the podcast because I'm not going to go into that much detail here, but Iran is subject to model protocol. It is something that is required. It is an obligation under the MPT But Iran is not subject to additional protocol because it has only signed it not ratified yet So therefore for ex with the exception of this very short period Iran did not sort of let the IAEA carry out inspections according to additional protocol and so for the time being Iran's obligations to open its nuclear facilities Stare from the model protocol, which is more restrictive much weaker and which involves some loopholes and shortcomings so therefore this is Something that doesn't provide neither myself as a scholar who tries to be impartial in this issue because I'm Personally concerned about where the Iran is going to build Nick to weapons, which something that I really suspect but of course without having tangible evidence substantial substantiated Evidence it is not possible to say the final word Although I have strong suspicions about Iran's ambitions as well as capabilities But the whole world must make sure that Iran does not as they claim to be does not Divert any of its Sort of capabilities from me to or does have no intention to do so in diverting capabilities from peaceful to meet we application so this is the whole issue And this is something that has Manifests as I said Iran is one of the actress for sure It is at the very core United States is definitely an Important actor here and also the EU the European Union not only because it is a collection of highly advanced Economic the well-off not these days, but you know still comparatively speaking Europe is one of the richest zones in the world. I mean it's a collection of powerful countries European Union while at the beginning of the 1990s throughout these 1990s until 2001 September 11 attacks, which was something that had an impact on their World view the perception of threats. I live this aside. I'm not going to discuss it But European Union had aspirations Towards becoming one of the global actors not as a contender to the United States It's not to compete with the United States or to become a rival but something I mean materially But something that would have bigger voice lotter voice in the making of world politics because there are basically major differences of opinion in terms of how to Address international political issues how to address the threats European Union Of course not every single one of the European Union members think alike I mean they do not necessarily have the exact same view each one of them They have but more or less there is a common denominator, which is applicable to all of them at the common denominator we see using diplomacy as a tool of resolving differences as a tool of Solving the problems But the United States which is it used to be even much tougher in this respect But now under Obama administration We see slight difference between the previous administration and this one But still the United States is far different than the European Union Although European Union is now getting closer to the US sort of a style or perspective But still there are differences with and the US edited is Diplomacy is actually a waste of time Diplomacy is something that the weaker part or the guilty part the criminal part so to speak is using in order to gain time to Mobilize more support for itself in the international arena or take summit measures build some shields Things that will make it much harder and difficult for the good guy to beat the bad guy So in the past as I said when the EU 3 took the initiative I mean the the British French and German foreign ministers I think it was at the end of October 2003 or sometime early November 2003 all three of them have gone to Tehran They spoke with they talk with their Iranian counterpart and convinced the Iranian for minister who was I believe Harazi and And then the Iranians have Suspended enrichment as a gesture of their goodwill and and as I said Behaved as if additional protocol which provides IEE with enhanced and inspection or investigation in the country then But that that has lasted until the end of the term of Hatemi and even before because in before June 2005 elections, it was obvious because of I think There is this Obligation or restriction for Iranian presidents not to serve more than two terms I'm not sure what I believe that was the reason and Hatemi was not going to run for presidency and therefore by the time the elections in June 2005 EU 3 and Iranian Negotiations and the suspension of enrichment all of them were just thrown out of the window and since then only until October 2009 just last year That you the p5 plus one And Iran have started to talk in Geneva Which did not last too too long and then came all their initiatives including Turkey's swap deal initiative And just yesterday again as I said at the beginning Iran and p5 plus one have against sit around the table and talk and on the news. I heard There were constructive talks, which means in our language. They have not agreed upon anything So this is the diplomatic way of screening the reality. Well, well, we'll probably hear more about in the WikiLeaks next week Or maybe later. So therefore the European Union's position is important and By looking at it, we will see what if any sort of responsibilities the European Union or the European countries had in the past or how they see the situation today recently and at present time and How this may or may not have any impact on the resolution of the conflict as you will see here and indicate on the screen The Europeans have encouraged Iran to invest in technology and provided education training to random students and scientists all throughout the 1960s and 70s So there are many Iranian students today, of course, they are in their probably 50s 60s with their You know high academic degrees. They have earned their MA masters as well as doctoral degrees in European Universities in France in Germany. I think I said that before During one of the meetings that I attended that was back in February 2005 in Berlin in Germany one of the participants said I Mean there were hundreds. I mean, this is something that you know was Emphasized by the person there were hundreds of Iranian students who Earned their degrees high high higher education degrees in German universities in the nuclear field Nectar physics engineering and whatever other related Chemistry maybe would be so this is something that in some sense and that as I indicated in One of my articles. Let me just also show that to you here for you not to have this difficulty to Search for it. Oops Kind of system is this All right Yeah, yeah, this is this one good for the shot Not for the Molas and There you can see that that I caught some people of course with their permission or without naming them because of lack of permission as I always observe this thing So if you go ahead and read this one You can see how the West the West being the United States of course on the one hand and European Union or European countries in the past you can see here Oops Yeah In the in the later pages you can see Anyway, so I mean just go ahead and read it You will find it very important Yesterday I received an email from the editor Medic editor of the Daily Telegraph. They said I've been reading your articles since 2006 I said well my students. I wish my students were doing the same thing the the editor of Someone I mean is one of world's most important newspapers and he wanted to call me not only about this good for the Shah Not for the Molas article, but also most recent one Which I just show you how to move forward the built-in of the atomic scientists article We had about an hour of discussion interview on the phone and He was going to make an article out of it probably with based on the conversations that he had with other people So therefore Information there I mean to emphasize is important and the Europeans Because of this feel this moral obligation to do something because they say we have in a sense Insided These people I mean We wanted them to invest more because remember after this young people work there comes this oil embargo Which causes this opaque crisis increasing? The oil prices four times and Iran incurring all these revenues coming from Exports of oil et cetera and then embarks on enlarging its nuclear vision and nuclear program and and putting this Ambition forward to have a 20,000 megawatt electric installed within the next 20 years and 20,000 megawatt electric Power plant means something in between 18 19 or 20 different nuclear reactors or four or five Nuclear power plants each of which hosting four or five nuclear reactors. So huge ambition and therefore Have seen having seen the money in the hands in the pockets of the Shah Iran Europeans wanted to get just grab part of that money by selling them nuclear technology So they provided all these Encouragements to Iran to buy their nuclear power reactors and therefore French and the German firms have lobbied in in Iran and finally a secured deals and which of course as I've said many many times The Germans were building the Boucher reactor, which now is completed by the Russians based on the 1995 contract So therefore there is this moral obligation and European say had we not Encourage the iranians that much maybe would not have faced this Iranian problem problem today So this is something that They they sort of think about it As you can see here again, they see this cooperation around in the 80s under the influence of US But resume in the second half of the 1990s by signing trade contracts Well, you will remember that I mentioned Bill Clinton when he came to power in the United States who became president in 1992 then he imposed this Dual containment policy toward Iran and Iraq Dual containment actually aimed at containing Iran in Iraq in order to prevent them from provoking the Middle East peace process Middle East peace process which was Going on In front of the eyes of the world community in Madrid But also secretly behind the doors in Oslo so the US Foreign policy objective was to contain Iran in Iraq which was called dual containment and The United States imposed actually its own will on its European allies and Said look if you do trade with Iran and Iraq They will have earnings and they will spend these earnings to armament. So if you do not Do trade with these countries? You will not have sort of the responsibility for their investment or spanning in armament so Europeans actually I don't know for what reason most probably because of displaying this Alliance Coherence solidarity and maybe the United States might have provided some Intelligence reports which may have convinced Europeans not to do trade with Iran in Iraq but as I said again before It was then made or revealed through some reports that the Iran's Second biggest or maybe third biggest trade partners. I mean as a as a group of Was actually a group of a partner companies parent companies Under the guise of different sort of countries companies were indeed American firms US firms the United States while on the one hand imposing on European states as well as European firms in the 1990s under the dual containment policy not to do trade with Iran in Iraq But at the same time your American firms under the under different names went through different Parent companies were doing trade with Iran when this is this issue came to the fore of course cause a lot of Outbursts in in Europe and since then Europe has lost much of its confidence in the United States Probably not as much as they lost now after WikiLeaks But that was something that really prompted the European firms to start doing business You prevent us from taking advantage of doing business around while your companies American companies are doing this under different names to Repairing companies. This is not acceptable. And then they said alright. We do business Iran as well so as I said just earlier this Also in a sense emphasize the deep divergences of views between United States and European Union on the ways and means of dealing with international security problems EU countries prefer economic and diplomatic incentives or coercive policies Or use force. You know what? I don't know if you have taken any course on European security defense issues but There is of course this new I mean talk for some time not just now For so many years already of a European constitution because European Union is Making itself into a global actor with of course the Commission, which is something like The Council of Ministers. There is this Higher commissioners for certain issues for health like ministers For European security and defense issues in the Constitution Actually, I don't know where it was here or in a conference outside of Turkey But I had a chance to listen someone Who gave a very detailed expose provided an expose about the content of the European Constitution well, I believe that was a conference at Boston University, which I was there in tenet and After listening to this person for about an hour, I noticed that he did not say anything with respect to The security issues. I mean foreign policy fine, but what about security and and and more specifically about use of force and I ask that question isn't there any clause any sort of a statement sentence something that refers to use of force and If I'm not mistaken. He said there is no single reference in the European Constitution to use of force Well, of course Europeans might must have taken some Some some measures in order to you know resort to force if necessary They will not just sit back and you know watch the situation just because there is no explicit reference to use of force But they have avoided Deliberately the term of use use of force in their constitution because it is their belief That use of force is not something that leads anywhere and that economic diplomatic political tools instruments must be resorted to before anything else and the Crisis must be contained etc. So there is therefore a whole you know New different attitude when compared to the history of Europe and this is actually The creation of the European Union as you know the European integration was based on the lessons learned from past tragedies but still the United States is Making use of force as one of the main pillars of its foreign policy foreign and security policies So therefore there is this huge gap in terms of how to handle the problematic issues crisis situation and what kind of methods and Sort of tools to use them So therefore Before going on and further with Russia. Just let me stick to the present situation of the European Union indeed as I Also explain in parts for instance, let me just go back to this Before the break Yeah, this one at some point I make a quotation from a 2005 or 2006 Peace written by a European analyst Let me just try to find it here in which yeah Here we go You see I believe you can see This is Quotation from yeah 2005 the EU 3 argued that Iran cannot be trusted to control the whole Nectar fuel cycle even under international supervision They fear that technology developed under the under pilot Scheme could be used in a secret means project and they argued that Iran's history of pursuing a cover program of 440 years means that it cannot be given the benefit of doubt Therefore the only Iran could provide a satisfactory guarantee would be to announce a permanent and to all Ranging enrichment activities to be verified by international inspections. So this is actually written in 2005 most possibly after the ending of the This initiative that was taken by the EU 3 between November 2003 and more or less March maybe earlier maybe a little later 2005 and the Picture that the Europeans got out of all these experience, I mean is Year-and-a-half Intensive sort of negotiations with Iranians. They have concluded that Iran could not be trusted but still it is important to bear this in mind this being the case which is Sided sort of quoted here and let's go to the end and see the source here For your information. It's available. Here it is. Can you diplomacy stop Iran's need to program working paper set up for European reform? November 2005 so that was after they sort of stopped and that was just after Ahmadinejad came to power and it was pretty much that time I mean maybe September October 2005 that he made the statements about Zionism that Zionism must be slipped out of the face of the earth So that has created a lot of anxiety a lot of uproar in the European circles because there are many Jews Jewish Europeans or European Jewish citizens in many European countries so therefore And Israelis I believe I remember were telling me well I made any job is actually our president because he couldn't even our president couldn't make such a big favorite to us because we were Having trouble in explain explaining to the Europeans that Iran Was deceiving them was lying to them, but they were not believing in us. So with these statements I made a job made about Israel and Zionism Etc. And that he didn't believe in the Holocaust everything the Europeans got really furious and then they change Or the start of the change of attitude was that at that point So therefore it is important to bear in mind that the Europeans even though they kept their major differences with respect to international events Maybe with the specific reference to the Iranian situation They tend to get closer in terms of worldview to Iranian to US attitude toward Iran So this is therefore an important issue to bear in mind and that yet this should not Suggest one that European Union has put aside all theater all of its Differences with the United States and that now they are you know Ben Wagoning with the United States and Israel to do anything militarily. No This is not the situation United States May or may not have plans to attack Iran nectar facilities with Together with Israel or all just all alone or maybe Israel might have such policies or considerations but even though European Union countries as a whole and Individually especially the France and and and not a kingdom at the United Nations Security Council as the permanent members have emphasized That Iran must do this and that but they will most likely refrain from doing anything Militarily or taking it apart in the in any kind of military attack or a sort of operation against Iran So even though they they get closer To the US position with a be their political stance or diplomatic stance This should not suggest that European position is getting closer to the United States in terms of military possible military sort of contingencies Reservi around so Having said that let's give a break and after the break will continue at the position of other countries