 Okay, very good morning. I hope everyone is well Thursday 19th of September Thank you very much for anyone who joined us live for the FMC Meeting and announcement last night You can access the full recording of that session on our YouTube channel So do check that out if you if you did miss it otherwise, it's I guess a case of the morning after the night before and Digestion of the Federal Reserve and and certainly when we left the office Some of the guys here Charlie in particular Had two great trades one on the euro and one on gold Which I'm sure Sam can talk a little bit about from how to have approached that in a kind of execution or a technical setup sense But certainly that gold move was was pretty prevalent at the time and all of this was kind of underlying the idea of What was classified if you like in a simple sense as a hawkish cut so cutting the Federal funds rates by 25 basis points as expected to the new range of 175 to 2 But then sounding relatively upbeat some things obviously still to be monitored in the economy They're looking at there's no express mention of the repo rate issue the tightening of liquidity We've seen in the money markets There was no dramatic dovish shift in the dot-plot matrix for their future trajectory of rates And so ultimately you had what really is I guess a bit of a three-phased move if anything because You know equities dipped gold dipped yield spiked So hence the reason why you had this kind of not all my not really hawkish But if anything Disappointment for the doves if you like and as a net consequence a hawkish result So equities and bond prices lower dollar firmer and gold lower Gold as well exacerbated by a lot of the technical levels that were getting breached on both trend lines and support levels as well Then we recovered I mean going into the closing bell. I mean just as we left the office Sam actually left about I Guess it would have been about 10 to 8 something like that quarter to 8 and he said He whispered by the dip because it's a sort of guy he is he's a big believer and has been I think he's dwelling too much on when Was it 2018 when he was buying the dip at every opportunity and definitely served him well but he was right again and You know the look it went down and and really powerful rally We actually had you can see in the center charts here. These are the US indices Raging back into the clothes Overnight in Asia though kind of drifted south We just had a little run down again So I'm still quite interested to see how today pans out on further reflection particularly in the North American crossover when the US come back in Because if you actually look at the charts equity index futures are lower That goes for Europe as well as the US gold is down 13 bucks still sitting around a 1500 mark Although it's recovered some of the sell-off from yesterday. It's still down T-notes are down three and a half ticks. So it's still mildly reflecting this idea or notion that Perhaps the market was a little overextended and how dovishly Positioned it was in its expectations for yesterday's event Let's just have a quick round up then and a few charts to have a look at in respect to the Federal Reserve So for one the Federal Reserve makers Yeah, as I said, they lowered the interest rate Powell said that moderate policy moves should be sufficient to sustain the US expansion Fed officials maintain that very key pledge That to quote act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. So that remained obviously as optionality although we're talking about here potentially a hawkish interpretation the fact is that they've said as They continue to monitor incoming events whether that's data or external headwinds Then they would act as appropriate to sustain the expansion. So that optionality that they could cut further if they needed to Interest rate on excess reserves cut after the repo rate crunch, I mean, you know, okay, so that's more a reflection of That kind of sits in step with the fact that they lowered the Fed funds rate. It wasn't really any explicit nature of a constant stability kind of Inaction of a more regular fixed repo rate activity and that may have dissipate disappointed some This was the dot plot though. And I think this is what was maybe mildly surprising As you remember the dot plot used to look almost identical apart from the 2019 part of this green line so 2020 21 22 longer run its remain relatively unchanged what it used to look like was almost like a Drop and then up and now as we know we've had two rate cuts So the 2019 end's got to come down But the rest remains relatively unaltered. So comparative to what we were looking at yesterday with the ING forecast of what would have been a dovish one, which would have been a Syndicant move to the downside of and more shallow trajectory of rates over time That definitely didn't happen. And so again adds to that notion of of a more hawkish outcome What's now the the market pricing going forward? Well, we've got two more interest rate decisions for the Fed for the rest of the year the next one happens on the 30th of October the day before the risk of no-till Brexit the day before Mario Draghi leaves so perfect timing all seems to be coming at once at the end of October and At the moment the markets are priced as of the as of right now 57.2% the interest rates are not cut again And they remain where they are by October although is a pretty close call if we go to the end of the year What are markets expecting? Well? They're pretty tight call again between rates either remaining where they are or another 25 basis point cuts So markets kind of right on the edge of or not whether we have one more to go So that's the kind of Fed situation not going to dwell on that too much As I said though what I am interested in is when the US coming later on now They've slept on it. What do they think about the next course of action going forward? Do we get a rerun of what we had last night? Not a bit of pressure into the equities and that frustrates Trump And he starts tweeting as he did Several minutes before he delivered the press conference yesterday for Jerome Powell Moving on. I'm going to go in chronological order Starting with the BOJ believe it or not. They actually did have their interest rate decision overnight I know it's hard to kind of keep on top of these things in the Bank of Japan Haven't made any Immediate move they've not followed the likes of the ECB or the Fed although it looks more likely or not that they will do It's just a matter of timing and perhaps that will come next month The BOJC said it needed to pay closer attention to the possibility of losing momentum toward its two percent inflation target as Overseas economies continue to decelerate so they're definitely setting the scene For potential policies easing to come in future and remember we have had the likes of senior ranking Policy officials there of late talking Over the last couple of weeks about taking rates further into negative territory. So Most economists as the second bullet would suggest think that the next move will be more stimulus Just a matter of the fact that it didn't happen right now We have had a little bit of yen strength overnight Perhaps the fact that they didn't act right now Has fueled a little bit of that move But also again with some of the generalized risk off as well perhaps in the marketplace Just helping some of that overnight currency movement Overnight you might have seen the Australian dollar has come under some significant pressure Aussie dollar trading lower If you're looking at the Aussie future, it's already down at its s2 this morning finding a bit of support there from overnight On the initial reaction and that's because Expectations are growing that the RBA are going to have to take more policy easing action After what we had was Australian jobless rate unexpectedly climbed in August As the labor force swelled to a fresh record essentially So additional labor market slack that sets the scene for further easing from the RBA to come in the near term And as such repricing of those expectations has led to some selling pressure into the Aussie currency This of course coming after Although the dollar index is down on the session about one-tenth. It's still having gapped up from the movement What we had last night So kind of divergence of fundamentals in that sense between the Aussie and the dollar the US dollar Moving elsewhere our trade talks what's going on Well, actually just so you're aware because we're likely to get some some comments on Twitter and from various news agencies And so on today and tomorrow There is meetings happening in Washington These are I think it's with the trade secretary perhaps the Treasury Secretary is involved as well in the US side And some of the finance ministry officials from China Heading to the states to lay the groundwork then for high-level talks, which are set to happen in October This is usually what happens They send the envoys in Contingency of 20 30 people come over from China to the US They talk about some of the top-level stuff So at the moment the topics for discussions over two negotiating sessions are said to be upon China's commitment to purchase agricultural goods so things like soybeans in particular will be in focus given how How pressure pressurized that particular sector has been to the detriment of Trump Recently, which we know is very important for him politically to manage those types of farmland areas There is lesser focus on the more contentious issues which is strengthening China's intellectual property protections and the rules around that This is much more going to be about okay Let's have some sort of commitment from China that I'll continue to buy these these soft agricultural goods Ahead of their more top-level detailed talks that we hosted in October So just to be aware of in case we see any headlines hit the tape Another thing I thought I'd mentioned this actually came I believe after market yesterday Perhaps could be something when cash markets open in the States later on the nizy at 230 Microsoft have unveiled a 40 billion dollar stock buyback. They've also boosted their dividend as well I think that dividend increase Was by five cents to 51 51 cents a share so I Think they've conducted one of these similar size scale buybacks before but certainly given they are the biggest company in the world Largest company listed in the S&P in the NASDAQ. I definitely would be interested to see how they perform pre-market ahead of the open later Coming back then to the session ahead You will be well aware that there's been a three-day hearing happening in the Supreme Court in the UK In regards to a number of different factors There's been three legal cases one brought about a kind of antiquated Scottish law by 70 MPs There's been a junior Miller repeal that's being heard And one other these all in regards to contesting the government's ability to have inaction and prorogation of Parliament is the main kind of theme This has been going on for a couple of days The main takeaway here that I want to stress to use you guys is that the three-day Supreme Court hearing ends today With justices retiring to consider their verdict the PM could be forced if he loses to recall Parliament giving opponents of no deal Brexit more room to try to basically disrupt his plan to leave the EU with or without a deal on October 31st The main way to interpret this would be if the PM loses an IE he has found he's used Inappropriately his powers to prorogue Parliament unnecessarily not for the right reasons and that leads then to a reopening of Parliament if his hand is forced That would be an immediate pound positive And I'd expect the pound at least in the intraday short term to spike fairly aggressively Now this doesn't mean that Brexit is solved and it's a holding of a medium-term position It just means then that the threat of this no deal would diminish as Parliament comes back into work and has more time to try and Disrupt the process of the PM's plans to kind of leave do or die in that situation So I don't at this point have any set time or when that verdict will be heard But when it is heard again if it goes against the PM I'd see that as a pound positive if you do hear of any rumours circulate or the in fact the news headline breaks while we are here This does lead us on then into today's session Earlier this morning at 9 30 we will get UK retail sales to do keep an eye out for that but As per the case really with CPI not looking for massive movement and we do have the Bank of England of course coming at midday Bank of England I really am not going to spend much time in this briefing talking about because all in all they are going to hold Policy steady. There's really no way that they can make any Real change in policy at this point not given the very close proximity of this at At this point in time at least the looming deadline of this Brexit uncertainty Will that deadline hold or will we get an extension to January? 2020 or 20 January 31st of 2020 So there's no press conference. This isn't a quarterly inflation report month. It's going to be a one and done We're going to get the announcement the likelihood here unchanged nine nil unanimous But we will get the line-by-line details of the minutes And that's probably where them could potentially be some interesting things where they might talk about some of the External things like the trade war things like that But obviously Brexit at the center of any interest and how they classify those developments into impacting the UK economy Might have some influence on the on the pound One thing also that came out last night. I did say this before we talked about about a week ago there is no smoke without fire and apparently Arlene Foster is softening once again About potentially being open to some kind of Northern Ireland specific Brexit solution What has been talked about is that you know, perhaps then we could have UK having its own ability to be isolated but Northern Ireland given its geographic connection to the Republic Would need to keep some kind of EU related regulatory alignment that of course was absolutely Contested by Arlene Foster originally because that means Northern Ireland would be treated differently from the United Kingdom in the sense of Great Britain or England and so that would would mean that that's against what the distinctly Protestant party would want disruption and having a different Relationship from that of the rest of Britain, but needs must and political Relevance is on the on the on the table whether or not the DUP will have any type of say in anything going forward And so as I've said before I think Arlene Foster now you could potentially see some movement because she will not want To have the fact that if we go into a general election Her party and their relevance is diminished by the fact that Boris if he did come out with a majority It's no longer needed to have a working relationship with the DUP So yeah, I think this is just continuation of that same mantra Quick look then at the calendar for today. I mentioned retail sales Then you've got the Bank of England for the US session weekly jobless claims as per usual on a Thursday Philly Fed is coming out I guess if you were looking at the EM currencies, you've got the South African rate decision Unless expecting a whole decision there US existing home sales three o'clock And that's about it for the calendar ahead just finally for my side this is the Amplify YouTube channel. I know for I'm only going to point this out to those who are not aware of this But if you go on the actual homepage on our YouTube channel if you scroll down We have these are all videos categorized So you can see the morning briefings here the weekly strategies here and then the live sessions here of which you can Locate last night's live session Hosted by me and Sam if you click on that and if you click on then the show more in the description part of the video You can see here the full kind of chapters of everything that we discussed So if I just zoom out for a second and you can jump to each one of these time stamps to watch that session So if you did miss it and you're fairly fairly new to Navigating news driven fundamental kind of market events if you jump to that second one That's when I gave a full kind of 20 minute preview of how to tackle last night event And it might be quite interesting for you to see how we went about that. So I'll leave that with you Okay, that's it from me hands you to Sam and I wish you a good day ahead. Thanks very much guys Yeah, hi guys. I hope we're doing well this morning. I have a quick look over the The general theme for for the markets now and as well to talk over Some of those moves from yesterday can see On gold that that level We were talking about seems like every day this week and rightly so the importance of this area is not to be underestimated for this week we can get a close below there could be buy it buy For now, but it's held so well and and why wouldn't it yesterday on the first retest of That low that we made from the 13th Friday the 13th and a decent bounce to push higher and we then sort of found Resistance on what has else has been a pretty good level. You can still see I'm gonna put this on to five minute from last night We were saying so if we put it in it would have been about Chart would have looked like this Hmm Like that basically and we were saying if if we can get back above this key level of resistance That this market could be an opportunity to go long We sent S&P if it gets above that trend line could be an opportunity to get long and obviously, you know at this point You know, this was you know very early into the session What a resistance level it was and also the opportunity to then get in short retest low of the day And I know obviously Charlie got in that and I'm sure he had a good evening However, we have recovered a touch since making that that low And just putting this back on to the 60 minute to the downside. It's all about that level. It's all about that level How could we get there? Well, I'd start drawing, you know, these trend lines from the lows But you can see it's already quite choppy You know to to for a move to the downside I'll just be keeping a watch to see if anything presents itself and gives that opportunity that there could be a decent trend in play And then obviously waiting for maybe a break of that. We're literally trading right on 1500 to the upside Obviously got those key points from from yesterday previous lows of yesterday would be coming in around 1507 that's an important point before really getting back up to retest of this trend line And just so happens that maybe by the time it would get reached is also that really key 15 12 point 7 level So gold a good mover and well nicely set up for today stocks You know a push lower to what was the low of the week failed break out failed test to push lower We get that reversal just like euro low of the year pound low of the year wait to see where that market closes as well just Following a Push low. We are just starting to see a bit of a rewind will come on to European stocks in a moment But they're certainly of the last hour euro stocks and Dax have done a nice full reversal and this is helping bring the Bring the S&P back into play and just when I was talking a couple of moments ago about Gold we get above there fine. Let's go along. We were saying the same about that trend nine in the S&P Didn't get above however We did then around nine o'clock and you can see we were saying you watch the video back Well, I mean you guys would imagine as well The target would be the higher the yesterday that gap feel and you get it And then obviously the next one up to what again you can see is marked up as a key level at 30 14 or just a bit below with the R1 Would have been a good trade. So it's you know with events like that. You don't have to be in in the first The first couple of minutes have your ideas wait for those and if they come in fine You know lots of opportunity better than lots of capital as I'm sure we've all heard before This trend line now all I would do is right-click remove trend and and get on with the day and even probably removing This rectangle from the bottom and obviously it's now about 2983 the pivot today has already been chopped through a fair bit I probably would have looked to see you know if we can get any kind of trend on from there doesn't look too good So it's you know this market here. I'd rather wait and see actually what happens Because we're pretty much if we draw a line exactly where we're trading now We are about three points away from exactly where we were at 659 so That's classic central bank move Reverse within 24 hours, but some important levels there as mentioned for the S&P Most notably to the downside and obviously that high that we made from yesterday So kept definitely have those marked up on the on the chart as expected the pound didn't really do much That wasn't going to be a focus for yesterday. Even if you didn't have the Bank of England today I would say it's still just gonna be brexit dominated. However from the downside from the last couple of sessions Including today that is You can see we're just starting to Respect a trend here from well all of yesterday. So around 125 today on the futures. I'd have that Just on there on a note along with that low the day key level to to have marked up on on there And you know the obviously the Bank of England could well dictate price and and whatnot But a technical push lower to there and obviously be looking at loads of yesterday And then those key levels from before if we were to have an ultra-dubbish Bank of England remember we were talking about the Trendline break. I mean that's getting far away now You know the lot further we go but still you know Just have be have that you know on there just in case that looking to come in around that sort of low of Of the week and just below us to as well for the pound above feet the higher the day Pat stretch its legs a bit around this kind of area as a whole around 125 35. We'll do a rundown obviously before The Bank of England, but yeah some interesting levels there to have on just bring in into picture The Dax as I mentioned it had to reverse that that push lower, you know again here the failed push it at pushing Lower than yesterday's low the advantage of waiting for that five-minute close You can see we get through it and then the reaction above is pretty incredible actually Sharp retracement higher and the Dax is still elevated, you know these lows, which I'll just highlight here Looks very much like gold in the way of that support. So end of the week. Can we get a close below and? You know the failure then to make another high is quite key So this is that real key now the zone to keep an eye on the Dax below here coming in around 12,300 Yeah could get could get ugly below there should we say that at the moment is it's not interested in doing so As usual any any questions obviously do do let us know Everyone any of these markets was have a quick look at oil to Start wrapping it up and you can see oil Not really interested in having a go at really completing that gap feel I still think that's a trade to to keep an eye on obviously volume, you know into the afternoon may Provide a better opportunity the original low From the Monday, which was obviously the high that we had back on the temp held well We didn't really get a close below there until yes They are noon the retest of that before the DOEs was solid and came lower And you know you're not going to be upset that you've just made a hundred and ten ticks Obviously doesn't look that much on the screen, but that's because of the moves we've had over the week so far So that's a key level 5862 I do actually quite like the idea of seeing a push to the downside to try and attack some of these Levels on the left-hand side. Obviously time will will tell and really could be changed by one comment Well, also worth having a look for those that do trade it. It literally just caught my eye now From before Bitcoin now below ten thousand again there breaking out some key support Big spike and you can see just you know, if we talk percentages of this move There's a currency. I mean this is at 4 a.m. You're getting a 5% move Yeah, I'll take I'll take a few points on the S&P over that at the moment as usual any questions do let us know European stocks Rebounding nicely that's dragon US equities higher Bank of England the main one to focus on around midday gold Just have a look at this Trend line to see if we can start getting everything respected 1492 for the day and the week is vital as usual any questions, please do let us know But I hope you'll have a great trading day