 I'm Amis the Steve Rhodes as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day one to two east and standard time also has a Great newsletter mastering probability now It's very easy to get Steve's newsletter folks come over to our website at TFN You're going to newsletters you're gonna see mastering probability on the right-hand side You can get one month for $149 you get six months for 695 Which is a savings of $199 at 22% and you get one full year for $1195 Which is a savings of $593 of 33% now They all come folks with a 30-day money-back guarantee Steve has a huge amount of great information As you get his web as you get his newsletter That's gonna help you dissect and bisect the markets each and every day check it out at TFNN Steve Rhodes What's going on well what a difference a couple hundred miles makes you Celebrating a nice spring down here. We're celebrating a heck of a hot summer. Yeah, it's It's 10 degrees difference. I think I listen. I lived in Boca. I know I know that yeah It's amazing folks. So if you look at Florida, you know, here's the finger going down Steve's on this side down here and we're on the middle up here. It's a good old Lake Okeechobee. Yeah It's just you know, it's funny when you actually when you look at the map and flower of the United States folks of Florida I mean Florida goes like way past Mexico on the way down. I mean, it's wild. Isn't it? It really is. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. So I thought we'd talk about one of your favorite things today gold and To do that here. I Was over the weekend. I was looking at some of the Fred data. I know you access the Fred data folks That's the Federal Reserve economic data and it's got a lot of cool charts and information But so what I started taking a look at here Tom was that they had some information on Inflation and so just using their data what they've indicated is that they believe inflation began somewhere around the middle of 2021 so that's what I'm going to use here. Okay, you know for our target just based upon data Anybody can go back. They can grab this red chart. They can grab inflation rates by different countries You can see the US kind of leading the charge there at 9.9 percent as of August 2022 Now most academics believe that inflation was unleashed because of the record amount of money that was pumped into the system as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic response and this is really one of the the Federal Reserve charts out here It shows the consumer price index and it compares that against corporate profits After a tax out there and many believe that gold is a hedge against inflation So so you've got folks that believe gold's ahead against a hedge against inflation It also that gold will rise as the money supply rises. Well on July 1st 2021 so I'm taking the actual middle of 2021 gold was trading at $1771 and ounce as of maybe you know a couple hours ago was 1825 I think it's still right around the same level. It's only a 3% move So I would have to say if that's really when inflation started to kick in so much for gold rising with inflation now if we go back so the very first time Tom that I purchased gold was 1979 and I happened to be I had a I was in my last year of college Yeah, and I had an economics teacher and this guy was a big gold bug. He also was He worked for the Swiss government At one point in time managing managing their assets and in anybody really great guy So he had convinced me to take a little bit of money and go out and purchase some gold He also convinced me to buy heckler Mining way back then and we did that we went over to Canada because we lived in Detroit and And I purchased some heckler shares, but I'll put some gold So I'm very familiar with this time period because on November 4th 1970 And I'm sure you and many of others remember but that's when Iranian students took over the US Embassy, right? And they held diplomats for hostage I think that went on into 2021 out there So what I have marked on this chart for us is November 4th 1979 when the Iranian students took over the US Embassy now during the next 51 trading sessions gold grows by 128 percent out there so To me those charts suggest that there's a significant rise in gold It has more to do with geopolitics than it does with a rise in money supply or inflation So it's gonna leave that as a benchmark for us to think about Here's a set of charts you've seen these before in the past. This takes a look at gold price in the major currencies So on the very left-hand side, we have gold priced in dollars next to that gold priced in euros Golden yen golden pounds So the first thing that I want people to understand is if you take a look at the green arrow out there When gold has a substantial rally or any asset really any significant asset You need to see it rising in all the major currencies and most certainly during the period of time where you take a look at those green arrows That's what was that was that is what was taking place What I would also note on these charts is the actual high of gold in the US dollar out there Which came in at about 2089 if my eyes aren't Misleading me and what I've done is that exact same date when gold made its high in US dollars I've marked those exact same dates on gold priced in euros yen and pounds now when gold does top out It will top out at roughly the same time in all major currencies Sometimes it's right to the day Well, we have gold in euros breaking through those highs and yen breaking through their highs out there back when the US Dollar had made its so this tells me that the move in gold is not over. It has not topped now I'm not saying that goal will not move lower. In fact at close below 1815 50 I know you're taking a look at an a to b equal CD down pattern and you've got a price projecting on that a Close below 1815 50 will negate a TD 9 count pattern on Friday So as you mentioned newsletter subscribers gain access to a lot of different technical tools that we use to help us identify Tops and bottoms in this case here. This is a bottom pattern and as long as price remains above 1815 50 We should see some kind of bounce now The other thing that I have on these charts here is I have both the weekly the monthly and the quarterly time periods out there So the weekly profile support is at 1816 30 folks You should write this down on a pad of paper So you've got 1815 50 on a daily time frame support for the weekly is 1816 30 Support for the monthly is 1813 20 I mean we've got a cluster here Tom and then finally we go to a really long-term chart Which would be the quarterly profile at 1796 90 So I would say to folks if we use 1796 60 as the key price point to watch for gold if we see price close below that We're going to see gold continue to move lower This chart here is a monthly chart for gold and what I show here Tom The black digits are consecutive months where the close of the prior month is The close of the current month is above the close of a prior month out there And then the red digits are the exact opposite to the moves to the downside So here if we take a look at what gold recently did we had a three-month move higher out there? And right now we're trading below last month's open To me this tells me if you take a look at the blue arrows on the bottom Typically we get these little two bar or three bar knee jerk reaction lows Before we see a bit of a rally inside of gold So when I take a look at the bigger picture this monthly chart says we could easily pull back for two to three months That would just be something normal and that says we should look for a low in March to April turns out Tom This is the 54 year seasonal chart for gold. It shows that we don't bottom until maybe about March So the seasonal pattern is following along with this monthly chart here of consecutive closes higher or lower So this suggests that we get what you're looking for is the completion At least of that a to b equal CD pattern and a market that moves lower for perhaps another month and a half or so I like it. You know, I really like Steve to it folks is that you see the run was extraordinary folks on the way up I mean we're talking about as four months and then they gave it all back And that's really cool because that's what really frustrates people. You know what I mean? Yes, absolutely Folks who over at our website at TFN and you go into newsletters to see the mastering probability right on the right hand side Do it right now bang Steve. You have a great one safe one. We look forward to show tomorrow. You do Tom Thank you. Stay right there folks who come right back