 The key piece of today's slate in Daily Fantasy Baseball is deciding how much stock you want to put in early season small samples, because for most of the pictures on the bump for today, we've got two starts already in the bag to dissect, analyze, and decide what kind of form they're in right now. That is a small sample, though. I am someone who is very okay with small samples, but even two starts is a little bit on the small end for me. So our job for today is to decide which of those small samples, whether good or bad, are legit, which ones we want to buy into, which ones we want to actively work against, and decide how we want to play things for today in MLB DFS. Welcome on into the solo shot that's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network in Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com here to break down Wednesday's 10 a game main slate. Locke for today is very early. It is at 6.07 p.m. Eastern. They had the A's and Orioles game moved up and FanDuel had it on the slate already. So it starts at 6.07. They were going to have Locke at 6.40, I believe, but now it will be 6.07 to keep that Orioles A's game on the slate as well. So that's why it's a bit different of a schedule for today, but take note of that. That Locke will be 6.07 p.m. Eastern for tonight. There is some weather on this slate starting off in Chicago, a wriggly field. We got very high rain odds, the Cubs and the Rays. The game, I would say, is in danger of not being played, but the temperature is 50 degrees with winds out at 20 miles per hour. So low temperature bad for hitting, winds out at 20, a wriggly good for hitting. In net, I would think that this is a slight upgrade for hitters due to the wind, but it is just a slight upgrade with the temps being lower. So a slight upgrade for bats, but keep in mind that game is, I would say, at risk of not playing. It is just 51 degrees in Detroit for the Tigers and the Yankees. Wind is also in from center at 12 miles per hour. So downgrade batters in that one. It is 58 degrees in DC for the Nats and the Dynavax downgrade hitters there. Same thing in Boston for the Red Sox and Blue Jays. 50 degrees there, so a downgrade for batters. And finally, 56 degrees in New York for the Mets and Giants. Once again, downgrade batters in that game. We'll dive into the pitching preview for today in just one second. But first, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcast, we of course run Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts. You name it, you can find us there. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. What that does by subscribing is you get this podcast in your inbox earlier to give yourself more time to research after the fact before the slate locks. You want to maximize that individual research time, deciding if you want to buy into what we said or not. So go to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed, hit subscribe and maximize your chances at differentiating yourself from the field. The 2022 NBA playoffs are officially underway and Fandula Mountain Dew have teamed up to add another layer of excitement to the first round matchups. Introducing the Mountain Dew NBA Free Play, a daily fantasy basketball contest running every day until April 21st until tomorrow that is entirely free to enter. All you have to do is construct your best nine player roster while staying under the designated salary cap. It allows and follow along as the games unfold to compete for your share of $3,000 in cash prizes. Plus, as an added bonus, if any of your lineups on the week have made the most three-pointers after Thursday Night's games, you'll win an additional share of $3,000 in bonus cash and NBA swag. Tonight's games will be tipping off soon, so head to vandal.com slash league slash mountain dash dew dash playoffs to submit your lineup and get in on the action now. For more details to the vandal.com or download the Fandula Fantasy app, eligibility restrictions apply. Pitching preview for this Wednesday mainslake Carlos Rodan is the highest salary pitcher checking in at $10,800. Chris Bassett is 10-5. Logan Gilbert, $9,500. Meryl Kelly, 93. You can see why the discussion of early season hot stars is pertinent here. We've got Sandy Alcantara at Alcantara at $9,200. Shohay Otani, 91. Luis Severino is $9,000. Miles Nicholas, Eric Feddy are the others at $8,000 or higher. So you can see here by looking at the salaries that the salaries have been very reactive. It certainly starts this year because Bassett has been great. Meryl Kelly has been very good and they've gotten shoved at the ladder. Carlos Rodan has been good too, but he's been good both this year and over a much larger sample. So if I've got a $300 gap between Rodan and Bassett, I'm going up $300 to get to Rodan every single time. He's actually in the same game as Bassett as they are facing the Mets on the road. The Mets do have some good quality hitters. Rodan's playing across the country from San Francisco, but I'm still going to rank him first for tonight. He's just having too good not to do so. We saw it again with Rodan in his most recent start. He faced Cleveland on the road and he allowed just two hits over seven innings with nine strikeouts. That gets him 21 strikeouts in two starts this year. Now in that game against Cleveland, Rodan didn't get as many whiffs as he did in his first game, but it kind of seemed like Cleveland, their approach to the plate was just trying to avoid getting deep in counts because Rodan can kill you there. And it led to a lot of weak contacts. We get bad pitches, led to weak contact and just two hits there. Still got nine strikeouts because he's very good. That's also an indication of what Cleveland thinks of Rodan as a pitcher. It's respect, but they don't want to get in those two strike counts and get in a hole against him. Rodan did scale back a bit on his slider, but the usage was still very high. If we look at his 11 starts where he's used that slider more, going back to last year, he has a 35% strikeout rate. That is the highest on the slate in each guy's most relevant sample by 3 percentage points. Rodan is also allowing just a 35% hard hit rate in that time. So I think he's going to have a monster year. That's our solid team again, a 110 WRC plus against lefties based on their current active roster since the start of last year. Just a 166 ISO. So even with there being a low strikeout team, I've got Rodan at 7.75 strikeouts projected for tonight. He is the only guy in the slate projected to have more than seven. So I think it's wise to ride with Rodan here. He's just the best guy in the slate and I want to react appropriately. So Carlos Rodan to me, the number one pitcher for tonight. Andy Alcantara is also in a lower strikeout matchup facing the Cardinals. And they've got just a 20% strikeout rate against righties since the start of last year. But Alcantara, like Rodan, is really good. And it's not just for 2022 for Alcantara. In fact, 2022 has actually been a bit down for him in terms of DFS stuff. But I think overall he is the better option for today behind just Rodan. We've seen Alcantara throwing a couple more sliders this year than he did last year. It's a 29% usage versus 24% last year. And that hasn't translated to a ton of whiffs yet. But I think it should because we've seen Alcantara this year have a 38% whiff rate on that pitch according to baseball savance. It was also 38% last year. So if he keeps leaning more on that slider, he should start to get strikeouts eventually. We've seen Alcantara throwing more sliders now for about 13 starts and his strikeout rate overall in that time is 26%. He's at 19% this year. But it comes within 11.8% swing and strike rates, which is closer to the 26% overall than it is in the 19% across two starts. So again, we should see Alcantara improve as the sample expands. Even without the strikeouts this year, the results have been good for Alcantara. And that's kind of the luxury you get with him. He typically has such a good batted ball profile that you have a cushion. Even when he's not all that sharp, the floor is still high. And then he can add on the ceiling when he's truly, truly on. I think it's totally fine to use him here, even on a pretty good slate. So with Alcantara, the early 2022 data in terms of strikeouts is not good. But I have a reason to buy into the fact that it will get better as it goes along and make him a good play for today at $9,200 on today's slate. Now, the third slot depends on what you're looking for. If you want more of a salary saver, I think you can bump down to Eric Fetty at $83. We'll talk about him and things to watch. But it's just $700 more to get to a value guy at $9,000. And that's with Severino. And I think I want Severino more than I want Fetty for just a $700 gap. Going into this year, I thought the Yankees might be pretty conservative with Severino in terms of pitch count because coming off a long extended injury hasn't started much in the past two and a half years. But last time out, Severino went 83 pitches. And to me, that means he can probably go 90 or so tonight. And 90 from Severino could be good enough to make him a really solid DFS play. Severino has looked good so far. He has a 12.8% swing strike rate, getting some ground balls. And those came against the Red Sox and the Blue Jays. He gets a Tiger tonight. And they have a 97 WRC plus against Reides with a 24% strikeout rate, which gives Severino a boost here. Plus, as mentioned in the top part, it is great weather for pitching for tonight. So I think everything lines up really well for Severino in this matchup. I've gotten projected for 6.9 strikeouts. That's actually the second highest number on the slate behind just Rodin. But there's always a shot that he doesn't get a full lead. So I've gotten projected for 90 pitches. I would not be shocked if he goes under that, which is why I would have Severino behind Alcantra too, despite the fact that I have Alcantra projected for fewer strikeouts. So I think Severino brings a lot to the table at $9,000. I'll go him number three with Rodin number one, Alcantra number two. We'll talk about Eric Feddy in Things to Watch. As far as stacking goes forward today, the Angels are one of the teams that actually has a warm park for tonight. They also get a good matchup against a pitcher they just saw recently. So they check a lot of boxes here. So I will stack the Angels for today. They're facing Jake Oderizzi. Oderizzi was fine in the first matchup this year. He allowed two runs across four innings. And he's a guy who throws like 40 different pitches. So you don't, he might not suffer as much in a repeat matchup as some other pitchers might. But the profile for Oderizzi is one we can stack against for sure. The Angels didn't really get to him, but the Mariters did last week. They scored four runs and four in the third innings. Oderizzi had just three walks to one strikeout. He's been leaning more in his four-season fastball this year, which is something he started to do last year. And in 11 starts, since he started doing that, Oderizzi allowed up just three home runs. So that's a super impressive number, but it's also not sustainable because he has allowed a 44% fly ball rate in that time. His homeward to fly ball ratio is 4.3%. Typically, this is a rough estimate, but like you expect things closer to 10%, probably a bit lower this year than usual, but you don't expect a 4.3% homeward to fly ball rate over a large sample, which is where Oderizzi is right now. In other words, I'm expecting regression from where he has been both this year in the first two starts and towards the end of last year. And the Angels are a team that could very well bring that. So to me, I think the Angels are a team that create out exceptionally well for tonight. Now, I'm not sure if Max Stasi will start because you never really know with a catcher, but I would use Stasi if he does. We know Stasi for hitting lefties. That's kind of like his archetype, I would say, in DFS, but he can bop righties too. He has a 214 ISO since the start of last year. So I think that Stasi is probably one of the better plays. Taylor Ward also has a low salary still. He's $2,400. And I think that if you use Ward, if you use Stasi, Anthony Rendon, $3,000 or so, I think that means we can stack the Angels without passing up Trout, Otani, et cetera, et cetera, maybe not both in the same lineup with Rodan, but you can definitely at least try it for sure for today. Now, the weather in Boston is not ideal for stacking tonight. The temperatures are expected to be around 50 or so, but the Blue Jays are facing Nick Pavetta, and there may be enough hard contact for it not to matter too much. This is something that Pavetta struggled with last year too. He had good plate discipline numbers, but he let it pay 50% hard hit rates, which led to a 4.53 ERA. That was despite good plate discipline numbers. This year, the hard contact is still there. It's 71%. Now, it's a small sample. That's going to come down. It's not going to be 71% for the entire year, but the fact that it's very, very high tells you that bad about issues he had last year are not gone. And the strikeouts are down a bit too. It's at 17% for Pavetta through two starts. His swing strike rate is 9.6%, and those numbers for Pavetta are more similar to what he did in 2020 than 2021. That year, small sample again, but he had a 6.890 ERA. I don't think he'll be quite that bad this year, but there are some alarm bells going off here based on the reduced strikeout rates, the hard contact being very high. And I think the one thing we can count on here is the hard contact still being there regardless. That's going to be a given, but if Pavetta can't get strikeouts, he's going to get whacked around a bunch. And the early data suggests he is at least at risk of that. And I think that means we should be high in the blue jays for stacking here. This is a small sample in 2022. Because we've seen shades of it in the past, I think that the most impactful part is the hard contact we expect to stick around. So in terms of judging guys based on small samples, I am more inclined to believe Pavetta's small sample than I may be for some other guys. As always with the jays, it's key that the struggles for Pavetta do translate to righties and lefties. He led up a 44% of fly ball rate to right handed batters last year. The strikeout rate almost dead even between righties and lefties. So don't worry too much about this being a righty heavy lineup. I think you can just stack the jays here and hope that those hard hit balls wind up falling in. Moving on to our third stack. Last week, Daniel Lynch did some really good stuff. He got seven strikeouts and five innings. And that's kind of in line with what he did in the lower miners. He's got a ton of swing strikes down the lower miners. And you're kind of like, okay, it gets your attention when they got like that, get seven strikeouts. But the hard contact was still there. I think that allows us to stack the twins for today. 67 degrees of temperature in Kansas City. So a bit better than a lot of spots on this slate. That game last week for Lynch was against the Cardinals. In addition to the seven strikeouts, he also led up three home runs. Out of the 17 balls in play, 11 against Lynch were hard hit, which is a very high number. 65% fly ball rate in that time as well. So the strikeouts for Lynch were very good. And it does increase the risk of the stack and the strikeouts reduced sample on balls in play. Can't get a hit on a strikeout. So you want the lowest number of strikeouts possible in an ideal world. We're not going to get that with Lynch. I'd expect the strikeouts to be here. But that's a lot of dangerous contact to allow. And it was an issue for Lynch last year too. We're up to an 11 start sample on Lynch using more sliders. His hard hit rate allowed is 46% with a 43% fly ball rate. Typically getting numbers above 40 in both departments is hard. We're there with Lynch. And there's no real science that's stopping anytime soon. So the twins may not be the best team against lefties. That's especially true of Byron Buxton since another day. But with the temperature in this game being higher than other places in Lynch, letting it have a lot of hard contact, I do think we want to give the twins a ride in this spot. One twin he gets a pretty big bump up against lefties is Jorge Polanco. He's good against righties too. But his iso against lefties, since the start of last year is 218, he has a 45% fly ball rate. He rarely strikes out. So he's one guy. Other guy is Gary Sanchez. And Sanchez is someone who I think is more dependent on the righty lefty split because the strikeout rates, as we know, can be a little dicey against righties. But against lefties, it goes down to 25%. He's $2,700. I think that Sanchez is someone we can turn to if we're here, 270 iso. I think that they've got some boppers here, even if Buxton can't go. Carlos Correa's salary is pretty low. He's been struggling throughout the year, but we'll be okay going there too. So the twins to me, the number three stack of the day. Things to watch for this late. I mentioned at the top that I don't mind Eric Feddy. Part of that is a matchup here, facing the Dynavax, but he's also throwing a lot of sliders or cutters this year, depending on where you look for your classifications. And that's a good strikeout pitch for him because if we look at the times where Feddy has thrown that wipeout pitch more often, got a 25% strikeout rate in 11 outings. So I think he's super interesting. I am going to probably have him in my player pool if I had to guess. And you look at the Dynavax, they're a very lefty heavy team. I don't think that bothers me for Feddy because he used that cutter or slider against lefties. So I think that he's better positioned to attack them than others may be. And that makes me feel pretty okay with him for today. The Yankees are facing in Water Rodriguez and it's a really awful start for him so far where he's had really bad results paired with bad peripherals. And he doesn't seem too different than he was last year, which is why the velocity is pretty similar, stuff like that, pitch mix. That's why I'm more optimistic that Eduardo Rodriguez bounces back than I am guys like Pavetta and others. So here's a small sample where I'm not totally buying in. It's noteworthy to me and I'm okay stacking the Yankees under the assumption that struggles do continue. That's why the Yankees are fourth for me, but the fact that I'm skeptical of the small sample continues is why the Yankees are fourth rather than being second or third, stuff like that. So Yankees are on my list for sure, but not all that high as a result of the fact I think Rodriguez will bounce back. Finally, if you want one more stacking option, I'd be okay with the Orioles in that moved up game against Dalton Jeffries. Jeffries so far has escaped issues, but he still projects as a low strikeout guy, not the best at suppressing hard contact either. So I think these things will bite him eventually. The Orioles are not the best offense, but they're also not the worst. So I'm okay with considering them here and going with the Orioles at times within my stack. And again, make sure you remember that game locks or started at 6.07. So lock is 6.07 for tonight as well. Let's finish up with our Dinger calls for this Wednesday slate for the boring one. I'm going to go as boring as possible, the reigning AL MVP, Shohei Otani facing Jake Otarizzi. Otarizzi does not have the same reverse platoon splits he used to have. So going with the lefty against him, totally okay in my books. I think Shohei Otani goes deep for tonight. The number two one is Zach Collins. And Collins is a catcher. So like Omar Narvaez yesterday might not wind up being in the order, but Collins always, even when he was like coming out in the draft, had like this really good eye at the plate. And you were kind of questioning whether that eye at the plate would eventually translate to power to home runs. It has a bit this year. And there were like some signs of like him being a viable DFS play last year too. So the official home run calls for today, Shohei Otani and Zach Collins. That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop. But again, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. We've got MLB, NHL, UFC, PGA, not for this week, but those are a classic going on. And NASCAR as well all in the same place. So search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed, hit subscribe. If you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review. If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDual Podcast Network at FanDual Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your DFS lineup. We'll talk to you once again on Thursday to get you said for another slate. This has been the solo shot right here on the FanDual Podcast Network.