 Good afternoon Welcome to our session on the future of geopolitics and business This morning we heard very different perspectives perspectives from institutions from governments religious perspectives and We wanted to start today With an outstanding panel of business leaders from around the world We have business leaders That cover very diverse geographies from Europe to Africa to Middle East Which will discuss with me the impact of geopolitics on business We want to add a perspective of what does geopolitics mean for business So we'll start with a short 10 minute introduction about how we see the impact of geopolitics on business And then we'll enter in a panel discussion and I'd like to frame us in a series of facts and figures that will allow us to have in focused discussion afterwards on what geopolitics and business mean We have heard a lot about the war in Ukraine this morning from a government perspective from a religious perspective from a philosophical perspective The war in Ukraine has had widespread material impact The war in Ukraine has had the biggest Humanitarian crisis in Europe since 1945 12 million refugees on the move 7.7 million outside of Ukraine That is a Historic unique event as we have heard also this morning At the same time we have seen huge destruction The current estimates for a reconstruction of Ukraine turns between 800 billion and 1.1 trillion US dollars But there's also hunger 1.6 billion people are depending of Ukrainian and Russian export of wheat cereals fertilizers and Last but not least Europe depends with 150 billion cubic meters on the gas imports or I should better say depended on the gas imports from Russia now When I talk to business leaders around the world and I can tell you I've spoken to more than 200 executive committees and boards in February 24 There's always a question that arises and that has also risen in February that is why is that widespread impact so big if Russia Ukraine and Belarus represent between two to three percent of global world trade You could say that these three economies are actually Marginal in the global trade structure And if you look at this chart you see that it's even less for the US. We're talking about 1% of US trade Five to seven percent in Europe and two to three percent in China So why is the disruption of supply chains from? Russia and Ukraine so fundamental well Because the picture I'm showing you here is wrong or at least it's not complete Because what we need to look at is actually a the average perspective of The economy and I know this is a complex chart and it's very detailed. So I'll summarize it for you But what it shows is that the three countries Russia Ukraine and Belarus play an outsized role in the global trade for specific commodity Starting with interested goal pig iron elements such as fertilizers cereals wheat Paternium nickel all these commodity groups have been massively disrupted by the economic sanctions that were taken on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and Of course if you pull out one third or half of the world's trade overnight you fuel inflation and De facto if you look at today's inflationary pressure There are four key supply chains that are driving this inflationary pressure The energy supply chain the agri-food supply chain the metals and mining supply chain and the semiconductor supply chain Those four supply chains which you see on this chart except the semiconductors are coming to that when we talk about China are actually key elements in explaining Large portions of the inflationary pressure we have now So the typical question that comes is to say, okay, how is this over? How will it continue? well Here we see two scenarios that are likely for Ukraine from an government military, but also economic perspective one scenario what we call freeze in place or Korea 2.0 is a scenario where we would come to a ceasefire to some kind of political arrangement and Some kind of stabilization of the economic volatility. We have seen in the last few months That's actually the positive scenario The negative scenario is what we call no end in sight Or what we have called Afghanistan's 3.0 Which is a scenario where we will continue to have sanctions ongoing Where we will have continued pressure on macroeconomic situations and where we will have a situation where the economic volatility will continue So far for Ukraine Now the second hotspot we also mentioned it this morning already is the hotspot of China And on China I'd be relatively brief But on China I think what is very clear is that we have contrasting perspectives between the grand vision of China as it was celebrated on the 20th Party Congress in October Where President Xi Jinping who is now traveling here in the region as we all know has announced a grand future for China The doubling of GDP per capita until 2035 the development of high technology in China The big role of China in the one Belt one Road initiative however, he is confronted with a reality of what we call choppy waters and What I find very interesting I don't know who of you has seen this data, but on Wednesday, so 48 hours ago the China trade numbers came out Chinese trade numbers came out November year on year minus eight point seven percent in export minus ten point six percent in import These had never happened before over the last decades such a drop So what we see here clearly is that with the economic slowdown with the situation of COVID and geopolitical tensions We are far away from having a only grand future for what is the key player in the Indo-Pacific So when we talk to business leaders there we get very often the question of saying okay What does this now mean for me as business? How should I prepare for the future and? What we have developed are four scenarios for the world 2030 Four scenarios that describe the world 2030. So now you know with scenarios. It's always the same problem. They are Generally right, but precisely wrong And so this is not the idea of telling you how the world would look like but of showing you for potential perspectives of what the look of the world could look like First scenario is what we call back to the future back to the future is what Thierry this morning described as the unique time between 1989 and 2009 where the world seemed flat Where institutions like IMF World Bank WTO were functioning And of course a world where free trade and democratic values were at this dominant stage The second scenario which we see is a scenario which we would describe as limited stalemate a stalemate as I described it to you already before by saying well We are in Ukraine in a conflict that is frozen We are in a we are in a situation where China stays away from the conflict and we're actually the Continuation of a conflict for many years to come creates a substantial economic instability There's a third scenario, which is called the tripolar competition And the tripolar competition is based on the fact that we see well there might be three blocks emerging One block around the western the western countries us europe potentially japan An eastern block around china with or without russia And a third block of countries like india the middle east africa That plays a much more. I would say non aligned role although We and we're not thinking that we will see a recreation of the non aligned movement of the 1950s and 60s But that's a third scenario And the fourth scenario is a scenario of the global escalation Which would be the combination of a war in europe plus a combination of a war in the india pacific and we've discussed today about of course the risk of Tensions around taiwan and this morning in the panel. We heard about the high role of taiwan in the semiconductor industry Well, if you know that 92 of the production facility for Chips under 10 nanometers are located in taiwan You know what this would mean for global economy if we were in a global escalation scenario The interesting thing is as I told in my introduction I've shared these scenarios with about 200 executive committees and boards around the world from chile to japan And I asked people to Say where they see the highest likelihood And it's quite interesting because the large majority of business leaders See the future somewhere between the limited stalemate and the tripolar competition Actually between 40 to 45 percent in those two scenarios There are few optimists with back to the future and there are few pessimists with global recession What it means for economy and that's where I would like to conclude with is that When we move away from the back to the future scenario To all the other scenarios We will see a degreed degradation of the economic and political and economic situation of the world Whether you take GDP growth, whether you take inflation, whether you take the role of global growth Whether you take the whole dimension of climate change You see that the more we move away from our traditional scenario, which was back to the future The more we will see pressure on key economic impact factors that are relevant for the business leaders with whom I will discuss now So from our point of view, there are six Dimensions to business leaders to act in a world like this It is and I think this is quite important Embedding geopolitics in corporate decision-making Well, for many of you, this might sound very normal But let me quote a CEO of a large european company whom I met this May in Davos He told me Nicholas 10 years ago digitalization appeared on my agenda Five years ago sustainability appeared on my agenda Geopolitics appeared on February 24th So that shows you to which extent corporate leaders need to embrace these geopolitics in their decision-making Then it's about supply chain resilience. It's about investing in people and strategy It's about innovation cybersecurity and acceleration of climate action And I'd like now to discuss these six topics with the eminent business leaders that I will join and the panel and Discuss with them about the impact of this new fragmented world on their businesses So, mr. Almazuri great pleasure to have you with us You are our host here in UAE. So it's a great pleasure to be with you And you are heading here the federal chamber of commerce besides of running a very successful private business And I wanted to see and hear your perspective on this world as we have just seen it now Please. Thank you. And good afternoon, everyone I would try to summarize My remarks and six points and I would like to Focus more in our region because I think Uh, my colleagues before me and after me will talk more about the global issues The world of money and business cannot be separated from the geopolitical changes since the these changes will be definitely cast its shadow in the economic and social reality in general Especially with the increase of challenges and considering the fact that the world is heading towards A wide scale crisis such as the war in Ukraine and not to mention the impact of covet 19 in the world The impact was great number one the food supply chain around the world Were impacted the pandemic left huge mark on the economies of many countries around the globe Second the huge increase in oil and gas prices and the rates of inflation as well as economic recession No doubt that the Geopolitical changes are among us the most significant factors To affect the world economic Ecosystem which makes us Think of how to prepare and how to imply strategic investment In the business in a way that minimize your political tensions Which can be done through? one increasing business flexibility and resilience Adapting developing practical methodologies for risk management and due political crisis Economy adaptation with the reality and turning challenges into opportunities And tools that can use to minimize economic shocks and sudden crisis three The strategy geopolitical flexibility is the one key features of UAE our government Has adopted forward thinking ideas and visions for the management and emergencies The UAE showed a great flexibility in containing the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic for example the advanced infrastructure logistics innovations Helped greatly in limiting the implications of pandemic And helped returning back to normal as soon as possible and moving towards a more prosperous lifestyle and the stronger economy It created a model that can coexist with the current situation while minimizing their impact as much as possible The government has placed an agenda with a clear vision and the new system to major production It also amended the rules And regulation to align the new update objective and priorities It abandoned their old and traditional ways of work and adopted digital transformation Such as having some categories to work remotely from home It utilizes new and smart solutions and technologies and providing 95 percent of services including but not limited to Digitalization of UAE chambers its services membership certificate of origin at station and documentation By looking into the economy of UAE we see that it possesses excellent economic features investment environment And the stable political landscape that can keep and growing despite the economic recessions around the world from time to time among us these features strategic location promise economic environment solvency and sovereignty funds flexible economic laws and ease of doing business stable currency lack of restriction tax legislation free zone and specialized economic zones And foreign ownership up to 100 percent of companies to do business in the country competitive labor coast in addition UAE economy is one of the biggest economies in the Amina region and business hub for Asia Europe and Africa These competitive features are witnessing constant enhancement to serve private sector investor Intervenues to enable them to grow and expand regionally and internationally Thus transforming UAE into destination for world investment developing government work system federal and local government sectors demonstrated high level of Readiness efficiency in developing work system in line with the UAE post COVID-19 strategy They maintain their momentum momentum and prove the country ability to crisis management Top the world countries in limiting the impact of the pandemic and returning back Gradually to normal life utilizing sound plan and detailed roadmap to future foresight The role of business and future foresight The UAE has deployed strategies with future foresight and intensified programs and plans while being more diversified flexible and comprehensive Many years ago the government in UAE has implemented The fourth industrial revolution strategy which aimed to transform the UAE industrial base Into a globally competitive productive Sustainable sector at the cutting edge of the fourth industrial revolution The strategy also aimed to achieve future security of water food supply using Bioengineering science and advanced renewable energy technologies Enhance enhance economic security by adopting digital economy and blockchain technologies and the financial transaction and services Optimize the utilization of satellite data and planning future cities and develop develop advance defense industry by developing national industry in the field of robotics And autonomous vehicle technology The UAE also Enjoy an economy that is open to the world with multinational companies. Many international companies have relocated their headquarters to UAE Which positively impacted the development of economic aspects And sector including tourism industry agriculture food and space industry The government in UAE has also launched a national strategies and new legislation to initiate And encourage manufacturing among these strategies in UAE industrial strategy What they call operation three billion Which aims to develop a UAE industrial sector and enhance its role in simulating the national economy and raise industrial sector contribution to the gdb from UAE derham 133 billion to 300 billion derham by 2030 The launch of Abu Dhabi new industrial strategy with the a 10 billion funding scheme across six Transformational transformational programs inaugurating international forums and events to develop the local industry such as make it in the Emirates forum Providing diverse facility for investors such as Basher service, which offers investors And internpreneurs in the UAE and all over the world Innovative digital solution to start their business anywhere anytime The government also launched the instant license initiative in Dubai Which aims to speed up the setting of the business in addition to allowing foreign investor to full ownership of the business The federation of UAE chambers encourage Emirati business owners to Explore the investments climate of their countries and to cooperate with their counterpart in this country to set up companies The UAE chambers offers all the support companies needed for business Matchmaking and cooperation regionally and internationally. Thank you Thank you very much. I think very Interesting perspective to see how in this changing world I think UAE is a is a hub of economic political resilience And in a multipolar world, I think you are of course also optimally positioned to play that role Thank you very much for this introductory statements. We come back to a few questions later on I'd like to move on to Maurice my friend Maurice Whom I had the pleasure to work with in the few past years together And who has been french ambassador in many different countries Japan and china to start with the east but also germany And in the uk and obviously also having worked as the under secretary general in the french foreign ministry And we have always had a lot of debates about is the world now multipolar? Which one of these scenarios is coming so very much look forward to your introductory statement Thank you very much niki for Your presentation which shows clearly that geopolitics are back in our agenda And that's for the risk management not only for the states but as well for the companies We have to take into account these evolutions and to set up what the framing is for our action We are in a time of war whether it will develop it will unfold in three polar Or whether there will be something frozen forever The thing is for sure that this time of war is with will last for a while We shall go through the winter and thereafter we shall see what will happen Close of it's it's not to show a redition. I said that close of it's had an expression we said that The culminating point of the battle has not yet been reached between russians and ukrainians And the culminating point means that there is a breakdown for moral reasons for No equipments or for external factors And there is still regarding external factors a fatigue of this nine and a half months of war We see that in the public opinions across the world. We see that with the impact in this global world Regarding food security pesticides and all that And we see it also with the change of majority at the house of representative in washington So all these are factors which have to be I would say included involved in the analysis we have The uncertainty and certainty Already existed before the war. We had the covet and the covet gave us the awareness that there were dependencies Which which were not sustainable and there were already decision Take made of repatriating relocating some industries in the vaccine sector for instance So this was I would say the preliminary now As tiri was saying this morning the war was an accelerator and what has happened shows that we shall never go back to the future The to the to the past we shall never go back to the past. The future will be different I read recently an article Which was quoting morris chung who's the founder and chairman of tsmc and he said globalization is over There will be no more globalization. So how is the world looking like now? We talked this morning a lot about it already, but We said there are blocks in a certain way. Yes, there are blocks. There is one block for sure, which is the block of us eu And some other countries in fact OECD countries which are the the ones who support Ukraine and who are the applicants Of the sanctions. This is a block then you have China Russia a very odd couple now with China ambiguous supporting verbally Russia in all the aspects of the this war being against the western model But being totally I would say on the retreat regarding any support would be technological Or financial or military So that's a position which is very very interesting Russia Is like a besieged fortress which it will remain for a long while because the sanctions after the war until there are negotiations Will last and so Russia is of major interest for the world and for many countries because of commodities rare earths energy all kinds of I would say products which this huge country still has with it The point is that The whole world looks at China and Russia And that's how the world is reshaping itself trying in a way to bypass the sanctions and regarding China considering China as the platform of trade and the future for everyone because Let's keep in mind that China still represents About 20 percent of the trade even if the figures are slowing down and even if there are economic zero covid policy consequences China represents also one third of the global growth of the world So that's important and how do we hate the countries regard regarding that as a block in a way But on very different manners and I would like to come back with what mr. Walalu said this morning, which is multi alignment if we look at the world we see that we look what is said for instance by the minister of foreign affairs of external affairs of india Subramaniam Jai Shankar who said multi alignment is the new behavior of countries Which means you behave according to your own interests India is a champion in that sense India one day at the outreach of the g7 the other day at the bricks the third day at the shanghai corporation organization the fourth day having Vostok drills in the pacific with chinese and russian in front of japan and the fifth day Being with the quad with the americans in the ode into a pacific policy That's what mr. Jai Shankar says there is now there are no more fluid alliances We must work accordingly to our interests Turkey turkey member of nato and now applying to be a member of the bricks So we have to take into account This new evolutions which doesn't show that people will betray you but countries will betray you but not Some more agility in the world as it is now We we have The layer the rest of the world are this swarm. I call it like that small but middle Size countries or smaller countries which try to survive because inflation is there a security pesticide in africa about 35 countries depend on imports from ukraine and russia regarding the grain Imports uh pesticide means that if you don't get them from that region about 35 countries out of 54 these are international food organizations figures You will not have harvest next year So what will that mean and it explains the trip made by president makisal of the african union to musko in june and then president We dodo of indonesia president of g20 going to musko and kief and coming back and saying This war is not our war. We want to fight inflation and feed our people Let's keep it in mind This is the direction of the world and the most of the countries about 120 to 140 countries in the world Are behaving according this pattern Now let's go a bit. Let's have a look a bit further on how the things will evolve. We have this block. I said Of the only cd countries. Let's call them like that Actually, look at eu us relationship more and more complicated for obvious reasons, which you know energy This this issue was raised this morning energy The price of energy in the u.s. Will be now four times less than the price of energy In the eu So there is there are already Delocation of industries and investments instead of being done in in in the eu Done in the u.s. That has consequences regarding The jobs regarding employment. Let's call it and Regarding activity and social consequences and political consequences Then you have this ira ira inflation reduction act on green economy hundreds of Billion of of of dollars It is the american interest, okay, but all these Possibilities subsidies given to green economy will be I would say We'll counter efforts in the eu regarding electric vehicles and other other other other products How will the eu react to that? I was listening commissioner thierry breton Who was talking two days ago and saying that if we go for a tariff For having tariffs on imports of american products, then it will be a commercial war. Is it the best way? We must not kill. I would say the free trade So why not have a by european act? We shall have to react So we shall have also companies will have to adapt to to these evolutions Then between eu and us defense issues defense issues now because of the war nato is more consistent But 23 countries out of 27 eu member countries are now member countries of of the of nato So where is the the the self reliance the autonomy the sovereignty of the eu regarding defense in the future There is a consequence for that look at this Uh statement Which was given after the summit held in madrid by nato member countries Which says as in a second paragraph that china has become A challenge to the security of the euro atlantic zone That's something which is important. What will be the future? So we must have it in mind now let's see very clearly that On all these settings China is taking the lead the lead of the bricks the lead of the sco While I was saying we are bypassing trying countries are trying to bypass sanctions There are new channels to import oil and we try I say we they try to avoid sanctions secondary sanctions are a major issue Which is not often raised but which makes many countries be off the western countries And there are now compensation funds ruble rupee or turkish pound ruble For enabling trade and for instance tourists to go to turkey regarding This second fund a new issue and I think Mr. Mazuri may we may maybe we'll comment electronic currencies Electronic currencies, which is the way China is thinking of trying to avoid sanctions in case The confrontation with the u.s. Becomes tougher In case there would be sanctions on companies working with china So e-currencies enable countries with their central banks to avoid the swift transaction transborder The processes and so this is something we have to follow very closely because the intention as it is very often said Is that the crude oil from this region will be bought by china in e-u and so that's a point So now we have three major zones of which are rising zones Of course asia with a competition on one side rcp led by regional cooperation economic Prosperity zone, which is led by china with 15 other countries asian countries plus Japan australia. This is transition on the other side ipath. It was mentioned today Indo pacific economic Framework, which would be more focused on supply chains on green economy Which is led by the u.s. So this is a competition, but many many i would say Of the things of the future will happen in that region of pacific and there will be norms and standards Coming out from those region another rising zone your zone rising United arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Look at investments done in this region But also look for instance at neom this capital of Saudi Arabia new capital, which is on the red sea and trying to project and Deploy on africa on northern africa egypt sudan eastern africa That's a key point for the dynamics of that region where there will be With organization and a firm political will the possibility of having Bright investments and that's something we must keep in mind as well. Then africa africa I think uh, sam will talk better than me on africa But let's look at this africa and john michel severino here can talk about it as well There are it's contrasted But these are zones of growth on which we must have a very firm look Now just to finish the the challenges we have First challenge We must reorganize it was said this morning the world order to Religitimate the world order Institutions processes because that doesn't work It's completely paralyzed and we have to to organize this disorder which will last for a while second, we must absolutely avoid Bipolarization because There are most of the countries. I was this warmest countries. They all these Multi-aligned countries don't want to choose either the u.s. No china They want to continue their development and bipolarization would I would say impede This development to be done in these rising zones. I was mentioning It would be also a major issue for the eu and so these are issues on which we can talk about afterwards Thank you for your attention Thank you morris. So we are moving from in not only in a fragmented world, but in the multi-aligned world That's what I take away from that discussion And of course, I think we'll have a series of questions coming up here Now, uh, I said when I said before that some for some boards and some co's and some executive committees Geopolitics was something that started on february 24th Definitely not for extractive industries. Helle I think you are one of the few industrial sectors who has seen geopolitics as core You have personally had a strategy and sustainability now in the last 10 years with total energy and It's a great privilege to have you with us And as a representative of a key player in an extractive industry And as you said in our preparatory session geopolitics is part of our everyday life We would be very interested to hear what's your perspective on this fragmented or multi-aligned or other world Yes, thank you. Nicholas and a good afternoon everyone a very broad topic a lot has already been said I just want to say that when I think about geopolitics, I'm always cautious Are not having too much of a western perspective Let's uh, be careful of biases and you helped us with that morris. Uh, but so also, uh, You know, I'm happy to be at this conference where there are so many people from so many parts of the world because that's a great opportunity And my second quick introduction comment is that as a business leader, we firmly believe that businesses Enable bridges. So we are here also to build bridges between all these different parts of the world that we've heard about Uh, so in preparing for the conference I looked at the some recent risk reports from insurance companies and risk assessment to specialists and interestingly Whatever the part of the world that three top risks are the same Then the other risks are different in different geographies But the top three are the same for everyone and that is geopolitics cybersecurity and climate change So this is something everybody shares apparently wherever we're from And then of course the three are linked Cyber security and geopolitics. I don't think I need to make the link But let's say that climate inaction will of course create geopolitical tensions migrations droughts Fights for water and whatnot. So the top three risks that we share are also Intrinsically linked. I'm going to focus on geopolitics But you know that total energies has embarked on a strategy Embedding climate into our strategy and sustainability into our strategy and we are becoming a multi-energy company And we absolutely want to be a leader in the ongoing transition while continuing to serve the needs Of our daily lives that still very much depend on oil and gas So now geopolitics as you said is of course embedded into our model because the natural resources are where they are I'll talk about power in just a second And so the interesting thing though is that the geopolitical risk is not always where people think it is And when I meet with investors until recently I always had a favorite kind of discussion which was sam Let's say five years ago our investors would consider that we had maybe invested too much in africa And they would associate africa with geopolitical risk And when then I would I would say Okay, so what you're afraid what you're afraid of and then it would say fiscal instability Hurting us and I would answer. Oh, that's fantastic. I agree on the risk But the two countries where we as a company have seen most fiscal instability Has been the uk and norway Okay, and then people kind of look strange but chew on that. So Let's again their biases also as to which countries are risky or not risky What's new Is for sure the sanctions until very recently a company like ours present in 130 countries There were very few sanctions to be careful of and I'm talking about the un sanctions There were a couple of countries sudan kuba a couple Before the war I'm going back to the years 2010 2012 We've seen unilateral sanctions beginning to pick up And that's really interesting data if you have the time go and look And I say unilateral a lot of them are from the u.s Some of them from the u some from other countries, but the curve goes like this It's just a new world Because of these unilateral sanctions those sanctions can be geographic. They can be thematic on Weapons on human rights on cyber or whatever But that does create a completely new world for us and again This is was true even before the war in ukraine set off So how do we as a global company deal with this environment? I listed seven points number one compliance We spend a lot of time being compliant We're listed in the u.s We cannot afford not to comply with all the sanctions and other regulations out of the u.s We could talk about iran and so on but this is an old story But it it becomes more and more time consuming and certainly an area of risk and therefore of caution uh number two Diversification we have an unwritten rule in our company Which is we cannot invest more than 10 percent of our cumulative capital in one same location 10 or 12 years ago. Nigeria was high up was floating with 10 percent Russia was 10 percent Let's say at the end of 21 But because we're a capital intensive industry Usually when a given country a given geographies at 10 percent in investments It will not be as high in cash because we invest and then we reap the benefits over time So in terms of cash to be clear russia was around 5 percent only at the end of 20 of 21 So but that's a key driver of how we look at at investments diversification uh number three We prefer liquid markets. So oil is very liquid oil products are very liquid They're very easy to ship from point a to point b In natural gas, we've always favored liquefied natural gas to domestic gas And this is how we've become one of the top leaders of the lng market And the reason why we have I would say we are not impacted by anything related to the Stop of all the pipe gas flows from russia to europe because we've always shied away from the more local markets fourth Suppliers and technology we spend a lot of time looking at our supply chains again This was before covet before of course a current crisis Which is careful of not being overexposed to any given supply or any given technology And guess what purchasing sits within my organization Which is strategy and sustainability because it's a driver both of sustainability through green roadmaps, but certainly also strategic area fifth Our diversification from oil and gas into power Again, we are not diversifying and changing our strategy because of geopolitics But as we embed climate and sustainability into our model as we Invest more and more in green power and integrated power. We effectively also diversify the geographies We have a rule of thumb 50 percent of our power investments in deregulated market 50 percent in regulated market The bulk of the deregulated markets happen to be OECD So that is a consequence of our strategy that effectively it also builds up resilience in terms of geopolitics Six is everything we do on crisis preparation. We can talk about it during the q&a if you're interested But of course covet was a real life, you know crisis that came on upon all of us and we as a critical infrastructure provider Well, we had to cope with it and continue to work efficiently and provide fuels to all our customers around the world real life example of resilience And a lot of it of course is linked to organization and preparedness, but also to the quality of our people So I mirror, you know, your six areas Nucleus and I pay tribute to our fantastic people And then the seventh driver is simply our financial strength You need to be strong to whether the storms will be virtually dead free at the end of the year And we have said for many years that we want to have a strong balance sheet because we're in a volatile market And you know prices go up and down and we're price takers. We're not price makers So financial strength is certainly also an important area of resilience So just to conclude and handing over to sam for us indeed Geopolitics is inherent to our business. I also am in charge of cyber So the third, you know, big risk. So actually my teams work on all three climate cyber and geopolitics Maybe a new risk interesting to discuss if you want, which is The fact that governments are back even in deregulated markets and we see it in the u.s We see it in the eu And so maybe there's a new risk linked to government intervention into the business arena and An erosion of this confidence in free markets, which we as a company tend to prefer And then just on energy, of course The challenge today is to reconcile the ongoing energy transition, which is absolutely necessary But which cannot happen overnight reconcile the transition with energy security risks And energy prices and I'll conclude by saying that we as a company We think we can be part of the solution And sam hand over to you Thank you very much heli And I think it's really interesting to see how the role of geopolitics has always been core of extractive industries And it's also interesting to see that the fiscal instability in uk in no way is Sometimes more challenging than exposures to geopolitical hotspots Now sam, we have been working together also for quite some time You are heading a very interesting investment firm that is investing across africa in retail in agriculture in logistics You have personally a big experience with logistics with this. I remember our virtual chats during pandemic ensuring logistics in africa during covet 19 When we look back at the six right no regret moves I presented at the beginning supply chain resilience was one of the important ones So very much looking forward to your statement. Very good. Thank you very much Glad to be here everybody a lot has been has been said on the topics And I think what I would like to focus on is the lessons that businesses have learned From all of the the activities happening around the world from a geopolitical perspective I think for far too long businesses, especially businesses from our parts of the world have been spectators When it comes to to geopolitical activities and so on and so forth And I think until the pandemic When the impact of a global situation starts to hit every part of the world Did we start to realize that as businesses we have a responsibility to make sure That we have a clear focus on geopolitics So the question today is from all of the headwinds that we have had over the past couple of years from covet to supply chain Chaos around the world to the russia ukraine crisis the energy crisis to inflation And so on and so forth What are the lessons that businesses have learned and what are the things that businesses should start to do In order to make sure that at least from a very strategic perspective that we're able to have a resilient Supply chain and supply chain infrastructure And this is very important because we we have seen now firsthand The kind of havoc that political activities or geopolitical activities in different parts of the world Could have in economies, you know where we do business or where we're present an example is Sri Lanka, I guess at the beginning of the war in in russia and ukraine And the hyper inflation Activities that started as a result around the world people for example in Sri Lanka could not You know draw a line between the food crisis that they were going to have in their country Or the the the energy crisis or the availability of imported fuels in their country with what was happening in ukraine or Russia and the same thing in africa especially from a food perspective It was in the beginning of the of the war Something that was happening in another part of the world until the price of baguette Started to rise in many parts of africa and the price of basic food items and fertilizers For example started to happen did businesses or political leadership start to understand that we are indeed In a global village and that that global village could have very positive and also very negative Consequences and perspectives so the question is then what lessons have businesses learned And how do we start to make sure that we build the resilient Supply chain infrastructure to protect our businesses from all of these kinds of headwinds that we have seen And not knowing the ones that will come into the into the future If I refer to the slides that that we saw obviously everybody wants to back to the future Scenario, but the last time I looked at the crystal ball Donald trump won the election in the united states and the second time I looked Saudi Arabia beats Argentina at the World Cup. So we're not going to try to Look into a crystal ball But the question then is that maybe we should prepare for the worst Because we don't know what tomorrow is going is going to bring. So how do we start to do that? From a personal perspective from some of our businesses, for example I think one of the first things that is important is to understand That geopolitics is a thing that affects businesses. So how do businesses react to it? Just like in many years ago, they started to be a title called the chief technology officer And I remember being in university when there was a debate around this kind of subject today It's a no-brainer Perhaps it's very interesting that we start also now as businesses to start to make sure that we have a spearhead for trade and trade relations or Geopolitical activities, and I know that a lot of work has been done around this By niki and and co at bcg For example the question about having a chief trade officer in businesses So that we can be able to learn from the past and forecast a little bit what is going to happen in the future given The geopolitical map Of the world and make sure that we're able to be not only resilient but responsive To the activities that can come about as a result of geopolitical tensions and it brings me to the next point which is speed to reaction I take an example of the pandemic here when the pandemic happened a lot of people Including myself here for example sat back a little bit to say, okay Let's try to understand what's going to happen The world is going to be shut down for maybe a few weeks and so on and so forth But a few weeks became a few months and and you know things just got you know worse and worse And businesses started to realize that you have to get up, you know and do something Speed to action then becomes the next thing such that businesses make sure that as situations evolve you evolve Along with it and so on Now when we look at the impact of you know the supply chain chaos Say for example from china and only thankfully recently the chinese government have lifted the restrictions on On china you start to understand then the need for localization The need to make sure that supply chain is brought closer and closer to home as much as possible It sounds impossible in the beginning, but imagine You know businesses that depended for example on materials coming from or manufacturing coming from china for instance Or material coming from different parts of the world where one political or geopolitical activity has hit or the other Ukraine Russia and so on and so forth how that impacts your supply chain and how that impacts your business So localization then becomes something that we have to take more and more seriously Finding nearer and nearer markets where raw materials or even markets for for finished products could end up Such that we don't find ourselves, you know Caught unawares with things like this as they happen more and more The next thing is the question as to how businesses are indeed structured I think that for a long time businesses have very much relied on this very monolithic Structure where decisions are made from the center or from some particular geography Like a head office or as the case may be perhaps to a more polycentric structure Where we break down the activities of our businesses, especially for people like myself who are in multi Business industries or multi sectors to start to understand the impact of geopolitics in different kinds of businesses And how to then make sure that you are More and more Able to respond to challenges as they happen closer to the geographies, you know Where they happen instead of relying and on some headquarters somewhere that might be six seven eight hours away And responsiveness does does not happen as effectively as it should Then of course there is the ever present question of you know technology digital acceleration That is extremely important again, especially from my part of the world In Nigeria today the outburst of you know fintechs has been you know phenomenal And people did not realize the impact the technology would have on their lives and the impact the technology would have In helping to solve very basic social issues I'll give you an example Uh in in a lot of countries in Africa during the pandemic, of course schools were closed And I think this was when as parents we realized the importance of teachers You know for someone like me, I have a seven and a four year old at home You can imagine you know trying to to uh, you know shepherd them around and you find that technology for example in education Has then started to help to make sure the children were kept engaged were busy And these were certain technologies that people didn't think about you know prior to The pandemic for example or in healthcare or as the case may be so the issue of digital acceleration could not of course be over emphasized in trying to respond to You know the the geopolitical impacts or activities in in the world and especially building a resilient supply chain Finally, I think it's sustainability Again, this is a topic that you know has become Crucial and we can see it with activities happening in several parts of the world and ignoring it is in our own In our own peril. I think it was the united nations the secretary general that talked about you know a What a climate suicide if if we did nothing, you know about, uh, you know the the uh Uh the climate and making sure that we build in sustainability into our planning So in effect for me the the general summary is Making sure that from everything that is happening around the world from a geopolitical perspective That we're able to embed this in our decision making more especially to make sure that we keep our supply chain infrastructure As resilient as possible to to these challenges Well, thank you very much Sam and having worked in logistics for the last 20 to 30 years I think you have proven how to keep logistics and supply chain working also in the most challenging environment of africa So I think it's great great to have your perspective here as well. So, um, we have had I think here a great perspective of Different business leaders, uh, I'd like to open up for questions. We'll take a few questions So I think there are some mics coming up. Let me take just a second We have one question here one here one here. I'll I'll collect three questions and we'll go by batch of three Yeah, please. Uh, good afternoon Narendra Taneja from India uh Very interesting good to hear perspective from germany and total Uh, which is probably more dynamic in terms of looking at the new world order Then probably most of the governments investing part of the world in particular, uh, you see the My sense is the the world order is already changing For instance, the global gravity center be economics or energy for that matter other issues as well Has already moved to the region between Let's say israel and japan and australia. Some call it asia. Some call it into pacific I'll leave it to your choice, but it has already moved But how many countries for instance in the OECD are actually willing to acknowledge it? They do sometime, but when you look at their policies and their obsessions Nothing is changing. It's 1.30 billion versus 6.7 billion 1.30 billion is OECD population And the rest of the world that is 6.7. Yeah, you see the point is that you know, uh These 1.3 billion they are used to building global narratives Controlling them Disseminating and they want the world order the way they want it But there are 6.7 billion people and asia has risen They are countries like india. They're countries like china the country now wait for some time You know indonesia and wait for some more time africa So now the point is that how long for instance the OECD countries would go on just having meetings Conferences and listen to themselves. Some people call it echo chamber. The world is changing. Yeah recognize it as soon as you can My sense is total has why don't you follow total? Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you I'll just take two other questions. There was one here in front One here in the front lady in front loran co-international international lawyer and writer on geopolitics in paris The panel has so far addressed how business can and should adapt to geopolitics, but i'd like to reverse the perspective and have the panelists views on on how business can influence geopolitics to what extent it can because geopolitics does not stand in a in a vacuum And i'm not only talking about influential business leaders who could influence political leaders, but business as a whole and civil society Have had a big influence on global challenges in recent years And so as geopolitics is becoming a global challenge and has a negative impact on on the economy and government's care about Growth and employment and so on and so forth. So I think We should start thinking more in a more organized way on how business can have a voice In the in the evolution of geopolitics. Great. Thank you very much I think there was a third question here. Please The lady in the front row Thank you Thank you I just wanted to have more details about what madam says said about the risk assessment and Where you get You happen to have more risk in in countries you don't expect than in africa And I think total total energy as a global company is a very Very interesting source. That's why I would like to know more about that and the second question linked to that is whether The crisis of war in crane has an impact on the risk assessment in africa as we see now that you know getting back to africa to to have to get more energy with countries Which used to be not so popular. So how does it look? What are the impact on that on africa? Thank you Well, thank you very much. I think there's a great set of of questions One about the rise of asia One around the possibility of business to influence geopolitics And I think also the question about the relative risk assessment. So Uh Given the last question. Maybe hale may I ask you to pick up on this topic? And answer like shortly. We have just a few minutes left on on the risk assessment potentially also potentially on Yeah, so risk assessment. It's hard for me to summarize in a few words, but We have a risk mapping exercise that we do in the in the company from bottom up So every affiliate business unit silence. So one has to do a risk assessment Then we aggregate those it's effectively a map and we look at the occurrence. So the probability of likelihood the severity And we look at, you know, how good would would be to mitigate so three dimensions And we we make all these maps Then we aggregate them and then we come up with a corporate map And then at the executive committee level We also do the map and there is a methodology here, which Is the same we do for compliance risk Which is we vote on the risks and then we end up with a list of risks And if you look at our universal registration document, you'll not get the map, but you will get the risks Okay, and that's dynamic. So, uh The minimum frequency of updating this is three years and we just finished actually this fall An update from what we did in 2019 and then we when we have all these risks We look at are there clear owners are there not owners? So in our company a big risk would be for instance a major industrial accident You know an oil spill or whatever. So are there people whose daily lives is to handle that risk? Yes They are within my organization also But so we consider that the risk is being taken care of so finally and then we find risks that maybe Are more subtle Fall in between other risks In between the cracks if you want and then we have a global risk committee That actually assigns the risk to someone or a team and we deal with it And then we do a lot of crisis preparation and so on so forth But so I think we have a framework because of the industry we're in because of its intrinsic characteristics That we have been fine-tuning for years actually Okay, great. And maybe just building on this Because the the connected question was also about let's say the rise of Africa Middle East Asia So maybe a quick comment from you mr. Masroy and then from sam about Do you see that the political development over the last few years Accelerated by the war in ukraine has kind of changed the weight of this region Yes, I think you know The world Are in race each country and in the globe is trying really their best to be To create a good environment for for an investment to to create strong economy And we've seen it all over the world. I mean we are seeing now superpower like china and india is taking the lead in the World economy They are becoming number one number two number three replacing europe and north america if now at least in the Future unless europe and america do something about it in the middle east here as well Despite the challenges we've seen We are trying our best we faced a lot of challenges My friend at the back here asked question whether the business Can influence the geopolitical? I think you know, I can give you an example We've been attacked and UAE by our neighbors Iran but not directly They created what they call war by broxy they Go to yemen control the country And from there they are attacking here by drones They are also doing this the same thing in the middle east in lebanon The they are existing in syria and lebanon threatening the neighboring countries In addition to this they also went to europe and ukraine i'm sure you heard the news Their drones are supplied to the russian With with with their crew where they are attacking a european country in the daylight So business cannot really influence what we are trying to do here in ua as an example We are trying to provide Our citizen and our residents the best life best opportunities We have we are accommodating 80 of the population is expatriate And we are trying to provide for them the best living condition the best security And i'm sure if you if you go through into our cities you will find them secured clean and People are living in a very good condition This is our aim and we are hoping to be one of the most successful country If not in the world but at least in our region for the sake of Our resident and our people Yeah, and we have the pleasure to enjoy it while we're here as well So i think that's a great point. So maybe sam because we're running out of time But i'd like to have your perspective on these regional shifts and the role africa would be playing in the light of the geopolitical fragmentation multi-alignment that also morris mentioned before what would be your concluding remark Madam asks a very pertinent question, especially about the vulnerabilities That the war in ukraine for example has exposed in the systems Around the world especially in in in developing countries and i just gave the example of Sri Lanka for example or the examples of what we have in in africa And it's very important that we start to understand the impact that global activities have on a local perspective because that the crisis in ukraine has you know Triggered demonstrations in Sri Lanka as a result of you know food and fuel Crisis that turned into a political problem And i think african governments have started to learn from that really really quickly. I think it was The president Senegalese, I remember that you know went off immediately to russia to try and go and You know negotiate the the blockage of of You know wheat exports and that in one hand, you know shows that you know There are real vulnerabilities that could turn from economic problems to political or security or instability problems and on the other hand starts to you know Give a credence to the question from From back there around the important role that businesses could play in influencing geopolitics And I think this is where these kinds of rules that we're talking about like a chief trade officer becomes You know very important and when you find corporate society and corporate organizations From an organized perspective being able to present a front to political leadership That starts to influence policy and that starts to make governments You know, pay real attention. I think those are two very important Important questions that that we should not ignore at all Thank you Sam. Merci beaucoup à ce panel tout à fait extraordinaire qui nous a donné la possibilité d'avoir Une perspective business sur le monde En complément des perspectives politiques institutionnelles et religieuses que nous avons eu ce matin Et donc au plaisir de continuer ces discussions offline. Merci d'être d'avoir été aujourd'hui avec moi Et à bientôt. Merci. Merci