 Welcome traders to another TIKNO Weekly Market Outlook for a week commencing the 22nd of August with me, Patrick Manley, starting in the US. Market really remains split as to whether the Federal Reserve will hike rates by 50 or 75 basis points on the 31st of September, but things may become clearer after the annual Jackson Hole Policy Symposium, which begins on Thursday. We will see Fed officials and other global central bankers, finance ministers and academics converging in Wyoming. Fed Chair Powell will give the keynote speech. However, even after this event, it is all to playful for the August jobs report to be published on the 2nd of September and the August inflation report on the 13th of September. Markets currently favour a 50 basis point revenue in September and November with a final 25 basis point hike in December, but should payrolls rise strongly yet again, 350,000 plus and inflation move upwards, then it would look likely to switch that to a 75 basis point hike in September. Now, outside of the Jackson Hole Symposium in terms of the data calendar, today Monday we get July, Chicago Fed Activity Index, regional surveys remain very volatile of late. Getting into Tuesday, manufacturing PMI 52 is what the market is looking for, S&P PMI is pointing to much weaker conditions than the ISMs potentially implying larger effect on small to mid-sized firms. We also get global services PMI looking for an improvement there from the last time out, 47.3 looking for a 50.2, we get the August Richmond Fed Index, again expect volatility in that data. And then July new home sales last month down 8.1%, looking for a negative 1.7% as the housing sector is under significant and probably lasting pressure. On Wednesday we get July durable goods orders, looking for a 0.6% print there, investment par, Silver's 0.2, material deterioration in spend, we also get July pending home sales for a negative 2.5% housing sector as ever under significant pressure at the moment with the rates increases. And then heading into Thursday we get the second quarter GDP looking for a negative 0.9%. Q2's weak consumer, a big risk for the outlook there, initial claims, obviously 250K expected, they're remaining capped below that to 70 level for now. And then running out on Friday we get July wholesale inventories and wanted infantry accrual, a risk given the end of the demand cycle, we also get July personal income 0.6%, real income will remain under pressure until inflation comes back to more normal levels in 2023. We also get the July PC deflator looking for a 0.1% print there, consumption will remain at risk until those rates normalise. And we round it out with the August University Admission Sentiment looking 55.1, as we know, the assumption is likely to remain weak now into the 2023 period and as mentioned Jackson-Hollison posing, closes out with Pet Chair Powell's speech on Friday. So from a technical perspective, Dollar Index has seen a sharp recovery from the support zone just below 105, now looking for a retest of price cycle highs, 109.15 monthly projected range resistance, basically a bit of a pullback there, certainly if we maintain momentum divergence, any POP hiring to the 110.13, 127.00% of this last corrected phase, I'd be watching the bearish of us, I'm just there to play the range for another move back down to test support at the 105 level. Moving to the Eurozone in terms of data, heading into this week, we are looking at Tuesday, manufacturing PMI, 49.3, manufacturing tipping into contraction in the Eurozone, services PMI, likely 50.5, services growth, feeling the pressure from cooling demands, we also get August consumer confidence, looking for a negative 28 there, inflation, pressures continue to weigh on capacity spending and sentiments. Then on Thursday, we get the German August Evo Business Climate Survey, looking for an 86.6% there, the outlook highly uncertain and it's set to remain that way in the Eurozone for now. That rounds out the data from the Eurozone, so looking at the technical setup, we could not break out of the descending trend channel resistance area, as such we are now looking for a retest of price cycle lows at 99.50, we will be watching then for momentum divergence to be maintained. I'm looking for any test into the 127 extension, 97.60, also the yearly S3 to provide some support, at least we'll move back in to test the price here into the 103.50, and in the UK, what do we have on the days of slate there, starts tomorrow Tuesday, manufacturing PMI, 52.1, manufacturing output has hit a 24 month low in the UK, we'll get services PMI, services equally under pressure from rampant inflation in the UK, and that really is the only data of note this week from the UK perspective, from a technical perspective sterling under pressure, and we are now looking for a break of price cycle lows, 117.60s, any pullbacks to remain offered, and as such I'm looking for move down to test 115 as the next support level on the downside. And in Japan, it's exceptionally quiet on the days front there, only one of the well two prints of note Japan, PMI services, subdued near term outlook for the services and the manufacturing sector, which also comes out tomorrow Tuesday looking for 52 print there, and that is the only data of note in Japan this week, from a technical perspective, Donnie, I'm looking for resistance to be maintained into this 137.50, if so, then we have a downside equality objective 128.70s, from there, we're looking for that to complete a three way corrective move before setting the next no of advance up through that 142, looking for a minimum 142.70 on the upside, heading down under to Australia, data of note there is the Wednesday the 24th, we get the RBA head of domestic market speaking of climate change risks in the financial system in Sydney, and that is the only data of note this week in terms of Australia, the Aussie dollar likely to take its leave from the dollar index. Looking at the technical setup, I'd highlight this potential pitch foreplay, we're getting pretty close to testing what should be the sport area if we can hold the 168.30s, then I'll be looking for a move back up into test resistance again at the 71.20s, however, if we lose that 68.30s, I'll be engaged on the short side, looking for a move down to that weekly equality objective 66.40s for once again, trying to recover to the upside. We'll just wrap things up here by taking a quick look at Bitcoin. Still in this corrective channel here, I'm looking now for any loss of the 21,000 level to start the next leg to the downside, and we have that long-awaited weekly equality objective 12,185 as the downside objective. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing August the 22nd. As always, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.