 Let's get over to our man, Mr. Tim Ord, as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour, and you can reach Tim folks every trading day at odd.noord-oracle.com. That's odd-oracle.com. Tim Ord, what's happening, brother? Well, thanks for having me on again. So, did you get my charts? I have your charts, man. We're grinding higher. I got them. Yeah. Yeah, we're going to keep going. So, no hurry here. But I put this chart out there, the bottom, the chart number one, the bottom window, this is just a, this is a weekly chart, and it goes back to, I don't know, 2018, whatever it is. Okay. But it goes back several years. And what I want to point out is it really works good at finding where the tops are. It works so well on a daily, but it does work really well on a weekly. What happens, what you've got to look for is the markets going up, making higher highs on the SPX on the weekly time frame. The SPX-VIX ratio will make lower highs. And that's your key that some sort of a high is being approached. And the pink areas are the times where the SP's made higher highs and the SPX-VIX ratio made lower highs. I see. And right now, if you go over to the right window here, we're pretty much not showing any divergence at all. That's that blue area I got outlined. Yes, right. The market kind of went down over the last couple of weeks. And so did the SPX-VIX ratio. What's important here, say over the next week or two, whatever, the SP's go up, makes new highs. And that ratio doesn't. Now that'd be your warning that some sort of a high is being approached. That's pretty cool, man. Yeah. I do a little bit of study of seasonality. I'm not great at it. Okay. But anyhow, starting, I think July 27th to October 27th is a time of all the seasonal periods during the year. That's the weakest period. I see. Okay. Three months period. So say we do rally into end of September. And you're noticing that the SP's are hitting new highs and the SPX-VIX ratio is not. And plus you got seasonality at the top of that. Then you're probably heading for trouble. How big of trouble? You really don't know. It could be just the sideways move. I think this market will end a lot higher than it is right now by year end. But there's a three month period we're heading right into here. It's about a month away or thereabouts that could cause some trouble. But I really don't see any, since this is a weekly chart, I really don't see any trouble right now because there's really no divergence going on with the VIX. Right. So, you know, I'm thinking we're okay there. Flip next to the chart. Yeah. Well, I can tell you too, Tim, you know, I feel like we've had gifts from the trading gods. You know, I mean, I do a lot of intraday trading. And this morning, you know, before what I'm talking about specifically is I think I told you they have these options now that expire in one day and I trade them every day. And so I was so happy when the futures went down before the 930 bell hit because I says, oh, here we go. Thank you, trading gods. I mean, you know what I'm saying? Because it's like, okay. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I know how that works. So yeah, that's pretty good. So we go to the next chart, right? Right. Next chart. This is so you got the bigger picture. It looks okay. It's like nothing super divergence going on. So that doesn't say the market has to go up or down, but it does give you a kind of clear view of that. Like there's no big divergence going on. So you look at the smaller picture. This is a daily chart of the SPYs. And what it did over the last couple of weeks, all those blue numbers there are basically the trend closes. And I'll get a couple of tick closes in there. Yes. Also panic is actually fuel for the market. And the more panic you can find, the more fuel the market has to rally higher. So ideally, you want a lot of panic in the market to really get a rally going. And so I made your panic with the trend. You know, the trend, anything but 1.2 on a close was considered a panic reading. And the higher that number is, the more panic there is in the market. And the more days of panic reading you get, the more energy that market has or fuel it has to rally. So I listed all those days going back over the last couple of weeks. There's about, you know, the market's consolidated for, but, you know, we're still kind of in a consolidation. I guess we really haven't busted out of here, but over the last probably 10 days, we have basically seven days or thereabouts, or maybe six days of panic reading on the close. No, I can see that. That's particularly last week, Tim, right? That was a big rebus, man. 1.6, 1.2, 1.2, 1.6, right? Yeah. Yeah. Well, yesterday we had 1.24, and we had a 487 down tick reading. You know, that's an update. Yeah, right. You know, people were selling into it. Now folks, Tim, can you just say, listen to this folks, can you just say that one more time? Because this is really cool. Just the part that you're talking about, the 1.2. Well, yeah, yesterday when the market was up and we had a trend close of 1.24 showing panic, we had 487 down tick reading. Right. You know, that's an update. Right. So they were selling into the rally. You know, that was true. We were going into a July 4th holiday and people probably worried, you know, trying to get out of market before, you know, the holiday, I guess, I don't know, it doesn't really matter. But there's panic in the market. You know, the bottom window there is a five-day average, and we hit right on the money. You know, 1.4 here, I think, let's say Thursday, so it'd be like Monday or Friday of last week, and the two-day has been up around that 1.5 for a couple of different ticks there. So we got quite a bit of energy. My point is we got quite a bit of energy to drive this market higher. Right. So we're already having panic on an extremely modest decline. You know, if you do a Fibonacci relationship, which I forgot to do on this chart, you know, we're probably at 31.82 or less. Retracement of that rally started back in May. Yeah. So we had a very shallow retracement. Panic came right in, right off that top. So the market really can't go down. You know, it may go sideways here, but you know, we already got enough energy to drive this market higher. And there's no doubt, you know, and there's been plenty of times that, you know, I've been bearish beyond belief, but because we've been doing this so long, it's really hard to be bearish folks around July 4th. I'm telling you, man, because for some reason, man, they love driving the market on July 4th. They're just, you know what I mean? It's like, okay, you know, let's... Well, actually, there's a statistic on that. This year, I forgot how that statistic went, but there's an 87% chance, I think it is July 4th, it will be, or the day before July 4th will be an update. I know we've got a commercial coming here. Yeah, just stay right there for a second. We're going to come right back. Stay right there, folks. Tim and I come right back. Welcome back, folks. I doubt. That was up 246 Nasdaq's down 19. S&Ps are up 13. We're talking about our man, Mr. Tim Ord. We are talking markets. You can always get hold of Tim too, folks, at odd-oracle.com. So I have the second shot up here, Tim. All right. Let me go back to it. Oh, do you want me to go to the third? No, we couldn't have... I guess we're pretty much done with this. I just wanted to show, point out the panic and I wrote down the trim closes and some tick closes and... Okay, cool. So we got everything. Normally, if you're coming down, you don't get panic until you get near low. I know. And we didn't really get down much and we already got panic. So this is some sort of a minor wave here, and this minor wave is done. So maybe the bombs are in. I also have a note there that says, up six days in a row, go into that. We could go last Thursday, and that predicted market will be higher within five days, eight, three percent of the time. It's been over probably five, six days now, and we're still not higher. But once you go up five, six days in a row, market shows a lot of momentum. And momentum, along with panic, kind of rules what the market does. Yes. There's nothing that I can see that's bearish on the market, plus a big to stay in real low, way below minus 17. So there's nothing wrong at the market right now. That may change in a month, but I think we're pretty clear until we start heading into that seasonal week period, end of July, and that October, November, or not October, but August, September, and maybe part of October could be kind of... Yeah, right. Less than desirable up for the title week. Yeah. Good trading, though. Yeah. Okay. So something I'm talking for, because everybody's kind of looking for a top here, at least the people I'm talking to, I'm thinking, I don't see it, at least not yet. Right. I don't know. No, they listen to the chart number three. The bottom line is, is that if you just look at between the Fed raising rates, between the amount of action upside already, we both know you can go higher than a lot longer than people actually think. If I learned anything, man, that's the reality. Right. Now, the next one, let's get our heads wrapped around this, because this has been... There was an ABC structure down to him in the gold contract. It was 1902, and we hit 1900 today. So it's kind of intriguing here. Now we're going to be talking gold, folks. All right. I think I showed this chart last week. I can't remember if any of the bottom window is what's doing the signal, and the bottom window is a 50-day average. So that's what? Two and a half months of trading. Yes. 50, you know, we got about 21 days. So about two and a half months of trading is a 50-day average. And so I took the 50-day average up, down volume, advanced client indicator percent, and I did a chart and went back far as I could go, which is about 1910 or 2010 there. Right. And every time this one got below minus 20, you were setting that a low or close to a low. And the thing didn't really go up. It just went sideways, and we hit that minus 20. We're actually still pretty close to it. Today, we're at 1975 or 1975, wherever that number is. And but over the last week or so, we've been pretty much below minus 20. And GDX so far hasn't done a squat. I mean, what this does, it says you probably hit a low in this vicinity, and you're probably going to flip sideways. So that's what that chart says. It could go up, but it doesn't necessarily. What I'm watching is on the next page. So the 50-day average hit a low, so you're in the vicinity of some sort of a low. Okay, when does the rally come? Well, this is the bottom window of the 18-day average. So it's not the 50-day average. It's a lot shorter. It's about a week and a half or 18 days. No, that's a little less than a month. But I did a bunch of different time-moving averages, and anyhow, the 18-day seems to work the best. And the next, you know, the bottom window is the advanced line 18-day average. The next window up from the bottom is the 18-day average up down volume. When both of those are above minus 10, which is in the blue area, you've got a rally. When both of them are below minus 10, which is the pink area, you're in decline, right? So if you notice, the up down volume, which is the second window up from the bottom, went below minus 10 back in April, and kind of just flipped sideways. It didn't really go down with the market. It just went sideways. And the advanced decline, which is the bottom window, never fell below minus 10 until late May. And right now, both of them are below minus 10. Well, the rally will start when both those indicators close above minus 10. And we're setting around about minus 15, 18 area right now. But what's kind of unusual, both these indicators are going sideways, and they've been going instead of going down with the market. They've pretty much flipped sideways here, which is kind of rare. So to me, that's kind of underlying strength. So I'm thinking with the 50-day average telling the market's at a low, the rally hasn't started yet, but I think it could be a decent rally, because I think there's some energy in the market here, because these are kind of not really drifting down with the market. They're kind of holding steady right below minus 10 on both of them. You know, it's interesting, Tim, when we look at the GDX there, yeah, I'll put this chart just over here for a second so the folks can see it. Because so the GDX right now, right, we got down to a price point of 28.76 today. Now that's coming right into the March 13th sign of strength as we came off that last bottom, which is really cool. And that at 56 million shares traded. And we rejected that lower price today with 14 million. Now you're up 30 cents. So okay, you're going back to first part of March off that bottom. I am. And it literally went right into it. It went into this bar. There was two different bars off that bottom that had big strength. And the bar that it's into today that it rejected had, you know, they had 56 million shares. Never mind. I said, yeah, 56 million shares versus 14 today. And you can see the way this is set up, you know, bottom line is that even though the gold contract was down big, this ended up rejecting everything. So it's intriguing, you know, in the south. Right. Yeah. There's another thing, too, about GDX and gold. The markets seasonally wise is going to enter a week period end of July. Gold, on the other hand, is ending a strong seasonal period of mid-July all the way in this October. So what kind of be interesting, the market may take a rest. The equity market may take a rest and the gold market may perform, you know, in that time. Okay. Yeah. So we'll have to wait and see. I had some other indicators that gave a target, you know, in the August, September of high around 44. I'm thinking that still could be on the table at the waiting field. Yeah. Hey, we'll just wait right there. We'll do another segment. Stay right there, folks. Tim and I are coming right back. We have the Dow industrials right now. One second, yeah. Dow industrials trading up to 218 Nasdaq. Dow and 18 S&Ps are up 11. Don't forget about the target all sale, folks. It's right on the front page of TF&N. It's the 4th of July target sale. Stay right there. Tim and I are coming right back, folks. Welcome back, folks. The Dow is up 224 Nasdaq is down 21. S&Ps are up 11. We're talking with our man, Mr. Tim Ord. And we are talking gold. You know what's amazing, Tim, is that they always make gold a hard buy, don't they? I mean, it's great when you get it, but it always seems to be a hard buy. Yeah, that's the way it is. To me, when I go into trading stuff, I'm not really worried about something that can turn out ugly. Usually, the best trades I've made when I was just scaring a poop out of me to put that trade in. Exactly. It takes practice to really buy in when everybody's screaming and yelling and stuff hitting the fan. A lot of times, those turn out to be the best trading. Nothing like we had that last flow. Right. The money we're coming off of. Yes. I actually bought the day before the low and the market gapped down. I held through that gap and then the gap down and the market rallied back, and that was pretty much the low. And I sold two days later. I don't know. Somebody called me up, told me something, and scared me so much to sold. Then I had to buy back about, I don't know, it seemed like a point or a percent and a half higher. Oh, it was stupid. But anyhow, that's how life works. And that's how gold works, folks. You don't have panic, you don't have a low. That's right. Because those gold equities, folks, which Tim is talking about, we almost went up 100%, just to, if you're, you know, the folks in the gold market know that. I mean, those equities just took off like a rocket ship. I mean, an eco, Anglo gold, that thing went from, $17 up to $28 with non-stop, just boom. And then, of course, when I went down to $21 again, but that's how they trade, man. That's how they trade. Yeah, it's pretty wicked. But remember back in the 2000s, when we were talking about it or we were actually doing it, the market just went straight up and went straight up for years. It did. That market didn't peak out in what, 2012, I think it was. And those stocks, folks, started at $0.30 and $0.40. That was a trip. That was a real trip. But what was a BGO, right? Yeah, BGO. I think it started out as a quarter. Yep. And yeah, 15 bucks or something. Yeah, exactly. That's what they're about. Yeah, at one point, I had 60,000 shares of that. Yeah. No, listen, Jim, do you remember how many calls we used to get, man? Oh my God. That was unbelievable. It really was. So when we're looking at this, OK, so the chart that I have, one second, let me make sure I have, this is the fourth chart, right? Yeah, the fourth chart is that this is a short-term view of GDX. Right, right. OK, cool. Right, right, right. So I took the GDX up-down volume and I took the GDX advanced decline, both on an 18-day average. So this has a good, what do you call it? It has a good, it shows all the energy necessary to read what this stock will do for GDX's concern. So as right now, it's on a short-term basis. It's still in the bearish camp, not real bearish, but the 50-day average is on a bicycle. Or, you know, so it said it's top. So I'm just waiting for this short-term stuff to kick in. And I'm thinking that's going to kick in probably in July, probably first part of July, I think. And that could rally possibly in the October time frame. So we'll see how it goes. But if you look at, go back to chart three, OK, which is the bigger picture again. Yes. See those signals when they come. You get about one a year over the last three years you got. So you're not looking for a one or two-month rally here. You're probably looking for a multi-month lease rally, because last time we got one was mid-2022. You know, if you look where that last signal was. Yes. And that signal lasted, I don't know what, a good year. Yep, exactly. Exactly. Yeah, or close to a year. And so this next one, so I'm thinking on a bigger time scale, this, we could ride this signal for a while, I'll put it that way. There'll be some corrections along the way, but the major part of the low is probably making right in this vicinity. And what does happen, folks, is that all this time goes quicker than you think. You know, I remember the first time, I don't know, I think it was you, actually, that said, oh yeah, we're going to do this for like two or three months. And I'm looking, I'm saying, I've got to wait two or three months, man? What are you talking about here, man? Do you know what I mean? And I get it now, of course. Okay. But you know, it's always intriguing that patience is the name of the game. I mean, it absolutely is, right? Yeah. Yeah, you've got to kind of wait it out. You've got to trust your signals. And the hard part of this game is, is trying to find the right, I guess, technical analysis that you can rely on, that you can stick your neck out and not get your neck chopped off. Right. You know, and over the years, I kind of got lucky back in what we first met. You know, I was kind of doing that tick thing on the clothes or in the day. I was kind of mastering that. Right. And so I just started going off to everybody else. When everybody else was panicking, I was buying that stuff. And I kind of hone that down and kind of expanded from there. Yeah. But pretty cool, man. It's been a learning experience. I'm still learning, you know. And that's what, hey, that's what keeps us all young, man. That's what's so cool about the market. That is what's so cool about the market, no doubt. So, hey, where are you off to on July 4th? What are you doing? Well, actually, going back to the in-laws in Colorado. So, Don and I are leaving Saturday morning and coming back actually 4th July. So, that's where I'm going. Where are you going? Well, actually, right out my window, we have the vanoy. So, it's, you know, you haven't seen this office yet. But we're literally, I'm literally looking at the water right now. So, there's a beautiful hotel there. We're all hanging down the hotel for the weekend. So, that day, the fireworks are there. You know, I got a couple boats down there. So, we'll have some fun. I got Tommy coming in with the grandchildren. So, you know, we're going to have some fun here. And of course, we have four days off, which makes it like insane. Do you know what I mean? So, yeah, yeah. We'll have to come down there and seeing you pretty. You're going to have to, man. We're going to have some fun. Let's do that. Let's definitely do that, man. No doubt. Gotta love it. So, listen, what is the weather like where you are right now? It's not too bad. It's probably 85. Nice. Okay. Yeah, it's nice that usually July gets sultry and gets sticky. Yeah, like everywhere. Yeah, right. Yeah, it gets, but right now it's 85, but it's not really humidity here yet. So, that runs through July, August, September starts cooling down again. Okay. It's pretty nice, 85 again, but humidity's gone. Larry, so Larry lives in Tucson. And folks, this is an update for you for Larry too. Larry took a plane out of there today. It was 115 degrees and his allergies are killing him. So, he's going up to the White Mountains and he's going to be in New Hampshire, visiting all you folks in New Hampshire. He's going to the White Mountains for the, right now until July 4th, so he can get rid of it. Can you imagine 115 degrees? Oh my God. No, I can't. I can't. Tam, you have a great 4th of July. It's safe when I look forward to speaking to you next week. All right, thank you. Thanks. Stay right there, folks. We'll come right back.