 What's up guys, Ricky Caruth here. Welcome back to my channel. So in my hands here, I have the US economic forecast data going through the second quarter of 2023. There's some really incredible stats in here when it comes to the recession and the housing market and all that good stuff. And this is really going to put your mind at ease when it comes to the market and where we're headed with all this. So I really want to share this with you. I want to show you how to use this data to better educate your buyers and sellers in today's market to make the best decisions possible for them. I also want to touch on the mathematics behind why I believe that business is a million percent unlimited for every single agent. Some people say, oh, that sounds good for a slogan or on a t-shirt. No, there's actually a mathematical part of this that plays into my theory here and I want to share that with you. Just so you know, based on this data, the market outlook, the fact that business is unlimited, how you can use this data to help your clients make better decisions. When you combine all that I'm going to share in this video, you should be unstoppable when you get through watching this. And if you're not fired up by the end of this video, then send me a text or something and say, hey, man, listen, you need to step it up a notch because it's just not doing it for me. All right. So before we get into that, I just want to say that we had the most amazing time in Murfreesboro, Tennessee. We had 400 agents at this event. The energy was legit and it had so much fun. I'm going to be in Phoenix September 22. Tickets are absolutely free. And I want you to do everything you can do to get to Phoenix September 22. This is going to be by far my best presentation. I'm really going to break some things down for you. Again, tickets are free. You can go to zero-to-diamond.com backslash events or I'll put a link in the description below. And if you haven't checked out my 60-day boot camp for real estate agents, again, it's absolutely free. So what are you waiting for there? Go to zero-to-diamond.com, create a free account and get to work. There's no excuses here. Now let's dive into this data. Let's start with GDP. This is very interesting because it does show that we've had two quarters of negative GDP. In the first quarter of 2021, we had a negative 1.6. In the second quarter, we had a negative 0.7, 7 tenths of a percent. So do you guys understand how mild that is? It's not like we drop 2%, 3%, 5%, 10%. This is 1.6, and then it's climbed a little. It actually recoups some of those losses at 1.7%. So we're looking pretty good, but here's what's interesting. They're calling for the third quarter to be 2.3%, a 2.3% positive increase in GDP for the third quarter. So they're calling for us to come out of this recession really quickly and for this to be a very mild recession. So for the year of 2022, they're estimating that we're going to be at a positive 2.2% for the year. So although we had two negative quarters, we're still going to end up the year positive. And then next year, 2023, they're calling for 1.7% increase. Of course, last year we had a 5.7% increase. Why? Inflation and all the things that were happening and the market boom and everything else. So of course, that's going to be a very high year. But for 2.2% to come out this year at 2.2% and to be positive next year, of course, this is just a forecast. These are just predictions, and that's all that is. But NAR, it has a very good track record in this department. When you look at unemployment, it's going to stay under 4% for a couple years. When you look at 30-year fixed rates, they're saying it's going to hit 6% and stay there for a couple of years. It's going to stay at 6 or below. That's what they're forecasting. But when you get into the existing home sales, that's where things get interesting. Last year, we had 6.1 million transactions of existing home sales. This year they're calling for 5.3 million. So that's a drop of 13.2%. And then the following year, next year, 2023, they're calling for 5.29. So basically 5.3. So what they're saying here is that we're going to drop to about 5.3 and stay there for a couple years. This is the new norm. And this is amazing, guys, because 5.3 million transactions, okay? And in a minute, I want to share with you exactly why I feel like none of this really matters because your business is unlimited forever. If you look at medium home prices, now this is something I really want you to pay attention to here. Because they do call for a 5% correction in the fourth quarter this year and in the first quarter next year. And it's going to start this quarter, the third quarter. But it's got us at all-time highs in the second quarter of $407,000. It's got it dropping just a little bit to $402,000 in the third quarter. But then here comes the big drop, fourth quarter, $380,000. That's about a 5% or 6% drop in prices. The first quarter next year, $381,000. So basically the same. So what they're saying is prices are going to drop 5% and stay there for about six months, but then get this. Second quarter of 2023, it's skyrockets back to all-time highs of $413,000. Again, this is just predictions, but wouldn't that be amazing? I'm going to watch this very, very closely. But here's the percentages year over year. Even though we're taking that 5% drop, that 5% correction within the next six to eight months, we're still going to be positive on the year. For existing home sales, we've got in 2020, it was a 9.1% increase in appreciation. Last year was the big one, 18.2%. But they're still calling for this year to be at 11.5% increase in appreciation. And then 2023 is going to be back to a very normal year at a 2.1% increase. And part of the 2.1%, it's going to come down and go way back up. So there's going to be a big jump there, a lot more than 2%. But when you compare it to the year prior, we're only looking at a 2% increase. These are incredible numbers, guys, when you look at this. And I'm really excited about this. And I like the fact that they are calling for a correction of 5%. And I'm excited to get into that market and kind of see what opportunities present themselves. Now, when I say business is unlimited, I want you to do a couple of things. In a minute, I want to tell you exactly what you can do to use this day to go better educate your clients so they can make better decisions. But when it comes to business being unlimited, what you have to understand is that your business, even if you're a big team, your business is a single agent or team, your business is literally a microscopic dot in this huge local, just your local market. You're a microscopic dot. You're almost nonexistent when it comes to the overall market. If you go to your MLS and you pull up the top agents in your market and you see exactly what their market share is, I did it. I pulled it up while ago. The very number one agent that has the most market share in terms of closings this year has 0.63%. 0.63% of the overall volume. So a little over a half a percent. The one right under that was like 0.3%. 0.3%. Okay, so the market is so massive is what you have to understand and that you'll never talk to every single property owner out there. To go out there and grab 1% of your market is would be your business would be massive, more than you can handle. And that's a big factor in this is that there's more business out there than you could ever handle because of the process. Remember relationship to close, not contract to close, but relationship created to close the process to talk to every person in your market, create that relationship, nurture that relationship, create a business relationship around it. And then for that prospect and that person in your market decide to buy or sell, then choose you as their agent. There's a lot that has to happen here, right? But the harder you work to talk to the most people, the larger the percentage of that market share that you're going to go grab and even more so in a down market with less transactions, agents jumping out of the business, prices dropping 5%. You're going to go out there. And if you work really hard to talk to even more people during this time, when the market does this rebound and comes back to the $413,000 all-time high prices towards mid next year, your business is going to explode, right? So you could never do it all. If you lose a listing to somebody, oh, there's not enough to go around. No, the prospect chose the other agent. That's okay. That's going to happen. You're going to lose way more than you ever close. I've lost way over $100 million worth of deals. Now, this is what I want you to do because this is national data. I don't want you to share this with your clients per se. What I want you to do is I want you to go into your local MLS and I want you to pull up your niche, your area, your property type. And I want you to pull up all the closings over the last, say, three or four months. And your MLS should give you an exact calculation at the top that tells you average days on the market, medium days on the market, average prices, how much you're selling, list price to contract price. All that data should be automatically generated for you there at the top. And if not, call your local board and say, how do I get this data? Because they have it. It should be easy to get per your MLS. But go there and understand the days on the market. We are at all time lows right now, ladies and gentlemen. Right now this year, we're at all time lows. If you look at Redfin data, just national data last year compared to this year, we are lower, we are lower than days on the market than we were last year. During that crazy boom, 15 offers per deal, 100,000 more than asking price, we're lower days on the market than we were then. Now what that's not accounting for are expired properties that are overpriced just sitting on the market, so inventory is higher. But the ones that actually close are selling faster than ever before. So educating your sellers on exactly what days on the market are in your market, what the average prices are, how they compare over the last year, so on and so forth. Educating them on those local stats will help your advisors and sellers make better decisions. Another thing I want you to do is go to MLS at least 15 minutes a day and study the hot sheet, the new listings of the day, the new pinnings, the new clothes, the new expires. I want you to scan through all that and look for houses that are in your farming area or that are in your wheelhouse that you normally deal with. Look for criteria that you have buyers looking for properties on and you're going to just naturally, organically, it's going to become second nature that your finger is on the pulse of the market and you're able to just spit out data and information and you're going to be like, where did that come from? Like your new square footage prices, you're like, how did I know that? Well, it's because you study the hot sheet every day. You're going to see houses come up, you're going to see them come up, you're going to see them go on a contract, you're going to see them close. That's data that's in your mind that is just going to come out of you when people ask you questions and you're going to be seen as an expert, a local expert, right? So there's a lot going on here, I know. Don't let it overwhelm you whatsoever. This is all incredibly positive. Let's say that this forecast is wrong. Let's say that prices go down 10%, 20%, 30%, something crazy. Doomsday scenario, 2008 all over again. That's okay because I want you to understand that closings are going to continue to happen by the truck loads no matter what. If the market comes down that far, it's going to be your job to go out there and find the buyers who want to take advantage of that situation. There's going to be people coming out the woodworks during that time. The woodworks. There's so many people that you know them. You have clients that are sitting around saying, if prices go down, I'm waiting on prices to go down. It's not going to happen. Possibly we could see a 5% correction and I'm going by this. This is what I believe is going to happen. I think we're going to see a 5% correction. It's going to level out and it's going to keep on trucking and year over year we're going to see positive appreciation. That's what I'm looking at. I hope this video helped you. I hope you got a little golden nugget somewhere in there. I'm looking forward to seeing you guys in Phoenix. If you guys would, please join my group text. Just text me 251-312-8844. I'm sending motivational texts. I'm keeping you informed on different events and different virtual events and webinars and Zoom calls and things like that. Please stay in communication with me. You can always DM me on Instagram anytime. If you haven't subscribed to my channel here, please do so. Hit that like button if you got a lot of value out of this. I'm looking forward to seeing you guys on the next video. Let's go.