 Hello everyone and thank you for joining back into the show. I'm really pleased to be joined by 50 pips today is the first time on the show and look forward to having this chat 50. How are you doing? Not too bad. Thank you very much for having me on. Hello to everybody. Perfect. We have a lot to cover on today or try to do it as quick as we can and first stop first stop and that's the ECB. There's still interest for the ECB to sound hawkish today. We've seen some data that there's a drop in inflation last month, easing the pressure on the central bank to continue. But I personally expected it will stress that there's more to do. I guess what traders need to do now is to focus on the underlying message and turn to determine, you know, what's the final destination for the terminal rate. With all of that, I'm just quite keen to get your thoughts on what could happen to the euro dollar and suspecting that it's not enough, the hawkish message today is not enough to send a euro higher, probably some downside risk. What do you see? I mean, here all the commitment. I mean, I think the ECB's been fairly clear and fairly straightforward for a long time and right now it seems also from what we've been hearing from the guard and everybody else that you know, they're hawkish. I'm talking about at least another couple of hikes. So, you know, you never know what the market wants to do, how the market decides to react to things, but normally I suspect you have to be living on another planet if you're not expecting them to be hawkish and signal more to come, right? I think the issue with really the euro and everything else is just, it goes back to the Fed, right? We're living in this situation where the Fed wants to be tough and continue to be very, very hawkish, but the market simply doesn't believe them, right? And we've seen this pause in the dollar and this sideways chop in the bonds. And again, unless we get some real clarity on the Fed, I think it's going to be really hard for the euro to move independently, right? So, right now what we've seen, I think the easiest call was, you know, the longer at 195 and here what I've shaded, I've shaded in this box, you know, once we've been stuck inside this 110-105, you know, it's just kind of like, I hate to say it, but it's not that interesting to trade. The euro is one of the, you know, one of the underlines I trade the most. I can't remember. I probably, I don't know, it's the year I've traded the least amount of euros really. So the range I'm working with is 110-105-1. And this is, and the way I look at it is, as long as we don't get any date closes above the 110, this is likely going to still arrange trade. If we don't any closes below the one, it's just a range trade. So usually the best trades, the best asymmetry you can get is at range extremes, right? So it would be either, again, shorting pops outside this range and failure to hold outside or to the downside here. Since we've been stuck inside this area, this is what I'm looking at. I have personally zero interest to do anything inside here, right? This is what we talk about. Don't get confused by velocity of move inside range. And that means that things could be very, very wippy here, but for the bigger picture, it doesn't really mean much. So for people who are looking for a longer term swing trade or something, I think, you know, look somewhere else because probably not that much to do on euro or it's just the risk reward of trying to do something at mid here is not that interesting. Now, of course, for shorter term traders, there'll be plenty of opportunities. But that's always a tricky call. One thing you tend to see going into the FOMC meetings is it's pretty kind of rare that the market doesn't try to clip stops at both sides of the previous day range. So especially in the thin shop here heading into the ECB and during the press conference, you'll expect the market to try and take out yesterday's highs, try and take out yesterday's lows. That 108 is a pretty interesting shorter term intraday level. But the other thing I think I can tell your listeners is remember it's game on once Lagarde finishes speaking anything between the rate and the press or during the press conference is just very short term trading. You don't have a lot of edge. It's not particularly high odds trade. Now, once the press conference is finished, then usually that's when more flows can come back in and the market can trend. And you'd be more comfortable going with a trend post the press conference. But really before the press conference, it's, you know, thin liquidity stops getting clipped all over the place and market just going trying to go for paying trades. It's after the press conference that will be a little bit more interesting. Yeah, right. Great stuff on there. I was capitalizing a few things you just mentioned about the behavior of the bond market and more particularly the dollar obviously that the more evidence we see between the US disinflation and the economics slow down. You could potentially prompt a little bit more dollar weakness moving ahead. We've not really seen that necessarily react on the markets like I'm going to look into gold now it's just immediate knee jerk reaction that we saw the gold price is completely raised early session gains. Thinking into negative territory, again, the pressure by just to jump in bond yields and the dollar rebound. I guess, you know, probably looking at this morning with resistance possibly just around 1955 we're just kind of looking for further downside movement, particularly post the ECB. I mean, what I would say is that really kind of is much better to focus on levels, then, you know, what should be happening recession on recession this that because the market moves in mysterious ways right. And even though economic calls may end up being right sooner or later usually that the right by the time you've margin called your account so it's much better to focus on what price is telling you, not what you think price should do or not what anybody thinks price should do because the only thing that's true is price, and especially as I assume you're you're the listeners here are private you know retail traders. Just think about it you know somebody at a bank at a hedge fund it have have you know armies of PhDs people on staff models, all kinds of resources to try and figure these things out you know at home as a retail trader you know what really the way you are on par with anybody else is honing your skills on price right seeing how price is moving. Now, so I would say since you mentioned gold and we've been discussing this in the live webinars and in, in, you know on Twitter etc. There's a very clear pattern on gold here. And it's that no matter what gold should do. And is there a chance that gold trades higher sure. I mean but right now, if you're going to be very, you know, keep it simple. It is as much gold as you want being sold to you above 2000 right and that nobody can argue with yours yours yours. You know, look at this. It's just, you have to be very brave and you know what they say about the, you know, line between bravery and something else is to get long at 2000 levels. Now this is a monthly chart. And everything here is pointing to gold coming back down right into the 10 month or into the 1800. Now does this mean that gold will not break higher absolutely not but this is similar to euro it's stuck in a sideways range or broader sideways range. And when you see the edge when stuff is trading outside of the range and when you see aggressive failures at range, usually it means that market is going to go back at the very least and test mid. And the monthly candles are very, very strong signals right, you can look at it on the weekly. I mean, so it's, it just doesn't look good for gold. Irrespective of what the economics are and right now, especially here you've got a key test right at these lows, you know, it's even hold it can't even hold the 1950 and you can see it even better on on a weekly chart. If we close the week here below. This is really opening up the move we've discussed that's already triggered a while back right if you look at the daily. This failure here this is a very classic pattern right we take out these highs flush. No new buyers at highs and then it just comes back down because everybody who wants to buy is already long and they're no more shorts to to squeeze out. So if we close here this is going to accelerate this move back into this lower that does it mean that 1800 is not a beautiful long absolutely not it could be a beautiful long right. But right now it's just it's looking it's looking heavy right it's looking heavy and especially if you come into a situation where Fred, you know feds is hawkish right there's probably two more hikes. You know probably this what everybody suspects is that yesterday they should have hiked, but if they hiked there probably would have been a couple of dissenters and Powell didn't want to have anybody dissent because they want to be kumbaya everybody in line. So he said okay, we'll get we'll pause you'll see the data will stay hot so then we can hike. And so in a situation where you've still got more hikes, I is not looking good for gold right and the real risk here the real pain trade is that that terminal rate has to be pushed you know to the six higher. But again, that's just all, you know, for gassy kind of up in the air we don't know what's going to happen tomorrow you know we could have another coven thing I don't know. But also keep in mind that action around central bank meetings can be very funky, and especially the last two or three FOMC meetings have been a little kind of duds right not a lot going on but don't forget that also on the counter here, we're in an week and we're not in a normal OPEX week we're in a quad witching week we're in a, it's a quarterly expiry. So you've got a lot of mumbo jungle funky stuff going on. And so it's also hard to read too much into it but it's interesting because here you know normally bar anything you would expect them at least into today to try and pump risk you know everything but then seasonally next week. So the, not in pre election years but usually the week after June OPEX tends to be a seasonally weaker week and then they pump it to get the month and quarter and close but we're coming into an interesting zone what you want to watch I think in if you see kind of risk off dynamics, you want to see is gold catching a bid, right, because if gold is not catching a bid because you're getting those risk off dynamics because people are really worried about the dollar. You know, that's a good way to get in trouble. So I think here on gold, the nice buys are higher on a breakout, or possibly lower, but here it's, it's, it's not looking pretty. I know that's that's great. And if I can't it's the same show you know it's kind of like you know we're talking about this choppy zone look at the DXY again you know mostly Euro but similar on the DXY is what is the Fed going to do. Are we closer to the end right and okay there may be another hike but it's going to be 5.6 or something, or are we talking six or higher that's the big question so the market doesn't want to believe that inflation is going to be sticky that the market that inflation is going to be higher. And here we're stuck that range we're talking about you're on the dollar is 106103 and 100. And you're see what you're seeing here is we're stuck at mid so pure going into the FOMC going to we're stuck at mid we're just because the market doesn't know that the markets really having a hard time. And here you know there are a lot of people that are going to be arguing okay this is, this is going down this is going to break down dollars dead it's an easy call. And a lot of people are going to say no no no no this is a very strong hold, and you know we're going to be hovering higher. I think really it. We need an event we need a catalyst and unless we're trading outside of 106 or outside of 100. The best call is just to forget the narrative forget everything and just tactically trade intraday, try and hold little overnight risk, play the seasonals, you know, play, play the data calendar and, and take it easy. But there's there's a potential pain trade because you know look at the tenure. This is the potential big pain trade because everybody's, you know, everybody on fintuit and everybody for ages by bonds by bonds by TLT they be getting massacre right. Yeah. And this doesn't look like, you know, this could easily be a rip high and this and if this takes out high you know where we're going right we're going back to these highs. And that means those the those aggressive breaks downs and here you know UBS are hovering. Also, sideways, they're saying we don't know ZBS also hovering and sideways, but it's not particularly bullish, right you see these are the big pivotal levels on the bonds and on UBS here at 144. Every time we're breaking down we tried an upside rotation to break and it broke down ZBS similar ZNs similar right that 114. It's just struggling and something which has been a good, a good thing to look at you know good tell is to look at the bund and look at the good this is not looking like you want to you want to buy this. And today is going to be very, very interesting on the ECB but again I would be watching this very closely because if this starts to break down. You have to be careful here I think the risk is really that that that that yields really spike high or at least that's a far more painful trade. I think but from the way the market is position. Yeah, fantastic. I mean, again, looking at the dollar index and just talking about that hovering over the one or three level, obviously playing a role into what's happening in the dollar yen. Suddenly, we were hovering for a long time over that 140 level it's crossed over that. What are you looking at for next do you think we're going to be able to get a bit more momentum upwards today or the next couple of days or is it going to bounce back down to that 140. Well, it used to be that one of the biggest graveyards in finance was the JGB great yard and now it seems to be the yen one because it's such a hard call right. I mean, my base case here was that okay it's finished. We're slowly they're going to pussy foot around a little bit but we're going to get to the end of the yield your yield control, etc, etc. And here is just the strength of the dollar is relentless and I think a lot of it is just that you know we've heard a lot of people talk about you know all the CTAs are just going, you know, crazy, crazy on on the Nikkei right so it's just gone completely nuts. Right. Now what does that mean for the yen I mean for the yen the way I would be looking at it just to clear up the chart a little bit is that as much as you'd want to think this has to come down. The chart is extremely bullish here. Right it's extremely bullish if you look at that move off those. Oops. So this move here is move a to B. What happened this was the technical front run of the 50 back this is where you would have expected it to come down right to really come back down sub 120. And it didn't what happened is it tried to sell off and then the market bit it up. Higher lows. We tried to smack it again. And then again this is just and what happens when you get these breaks. Right. What happens usually is we try and rip back to a the scene of the crime and look what's happening here this key resistance that in pure technical fashion is acting as support right. So when you're seeing this kind of action and especially when the 50 back gets front run and can't hold usually it's high odds that the 61.8 level gets tagged. Now also you have this high coming in line with that 61.8, which could be could be interesting. But I mean, as much as it pains me to say, you know, this kind of breakout here opens up a retest higher. Right. I don't know if we need some kind of, you know, crazy blow off top on the Nikkei and then and then this starts to roll again or something. It's messy. I think the levels to watch here is I would be looking at this high here and this previous resistance that is now support. And as long as the market is stuck here, right. Anything goes. This is a little bit of a choppy zone. I think if we break up and we get strong closes above here, then there's a high chance that this is going to try and go stupid and rip back for those highs. And if we close below that range, well, then that really opens up a close back below the 200 DMA that can open up the move lower right to trying to but right here it's a little bit messy in the zone. Got it. Yeah, I wanted to capitalize on something said earlier that word chop in this and I think the best one that I can attribute that to currently is WTI crude oil. And yeah, it's closed as the gap that was existing in that chart. It's likely to face more downside. What's brewing on a chart? What do you think? Crude. So, I mean, crude is when they start trading, they think it's nice. It's cool to say they trade crude and gold. I mean, if you trade it enough, you realize there are probably two of the things you want to trade the least because you've got the least edge. You know, crude is not uncommon to have up or down six to 8% day. So if you're not tight with your risk management, you know, that's that's an accident waiting to happen. Crude is again, extremely messy here, Biden and co are about to pull off a miracle by refilling cheaper than they sold. But here this is another trial that's looking like death, right? So since the beginning of the year, everybody's been calling for some kind of super cycle commodities going to rip crude is going back to 100. That's that's in line with the long TLT crowd and everybody's been getting massacred. And the long gold guy, you can say whatever you want about supply demand, yadda yadda yadda, this chart does not look good. So right now, if you're trying to buy crude here, you're praying for some kind of opaque headline to bail you out. That's not a good way to trade. That's not a way to build a long track record. But equally, are you going to sell this into all these wicks? And what we've been getting all these headlines, it's an accident waiting to happen. Here this is a really, really hard call. What I suspect here probably is that as long as we continue to trade inside, let's call it 65 and 75, this is going to be super choppy. But I mean, what are you going to do here? It doesn't look good, right? And again, this is another issue with the dollar, right? What happens if the dollar starts to firm hard? A lot of people are going to have problems with this is a massively important level. You can see this going back to 2018. Not is quite heavy. So I think if we get an ugly breakdown, could this really roll? Yes. But I'm not a fan of being short crude ever unless you're trading just intraday. It's a messy one. But equally, are you going to be buying it with when it's trading so bad? Probably not. So I think the buyers here paradoxically, you're in a situation where the buyers are higher or the buyers are lower. You see what I mean? So equally, since the buyers want either a break above that 75 or a catalyst or some Momo, or they want to get it much lower. So equally, sellers are probably already short. So there's nobody that's going to initiate any big sales here, or anybody who wants to be long is already long. So you've got that situation where it's just hovering here getting pushed around on on Washington headlines or opaque headlines, but you've got a situation where all the guys who want to be structurally long are already long. All the guys who need to get longer waiting higher or lower. All the guys that are structurally short are still short or there were guys who are not short and want to get short, they're waiting for a bounce or a pop. And that just means that everybody's bet is made and they're waiting and it's just hovering here. And what you're getting is, you know, velocity of move inside this broader range with, again, all the spikes being capped, but nothing really going on. So it's unless you're trying to trade it intraday. I mean, it's that that's the theme, right? It's also like. Got it. I think that's a great leeway into accruities. As you mentioned, I mean, we've looked at certain stocks continued that frenzy moves in Vidya Oracle, the fact stocks they've all helped move the NASDAQ up and even the S&P that continues tech rally that we've seen. They didn't continue that. I just want to start with the NASDAQ. You kind of your short term outlook for that index. Are we expected to continue to break new highs or is it time for reversal, you think? Well, I think what a lot of people forget also is because of the way the indexes are constructed, you know, those tech names are everywhere, right? Those tech names are big weights of the ES but also those tech names are pretty much in every in one way, shape or form in every ETF too, right? So essentially what it is is, you know, eight names, six to eight names have been dragging all the everything up, but, you know, everything else is pretty much flat to down. So here is this is a dangerous market because when things squeeze, they squeeze more than you ever think they're going to squeeze. When things go parabolic and you have those blow off tops, usually the biggest part of the move is in the last 20% of the time. Right? And, and also is those markets where you have people who are bearish, they're going to say, Hey, man, this is stupid. Look, it's just eight number of stocks, breath is horrible. These guys, everything has to turn down, right? And the guys who are bullish are saying, No, man, these things are going to take everybody to the moon. So wait until these rip so much that everything else has to join, right? So it's really dangerous because nobody's going to change their mind. But at the end of the day, this move is, is not what we would call a healthy sustainable move. But having said that, it continue far longer than anybody thinks, right? What I think is, is interesting to look at is anybody who's interested, you want to keep an eye on those big names, right? And something which maybe let's put a Q, Q. What I'm telling everybody, if you're looking for some kind of a top or some kind of a shorting opportunity, you have to make sure everything gets smashed, right? What does that mean? For example, on a, on an index side, if you come in any day and you have, basically you want to have ES, YM, NASDAQ and Russell. If you see on any given day that they're smashing ES and NASDAQ, but they're bidding up YM and Russell or another day they're smashing Russell and YM, but they're bidding up NASDAQ and ES, what that means is you're seeing rotation, right? And what people do is mistakenly they, when they, they're looking at them, they just pick the ones that fit their bias and say, oh, it's going up because these two are going up or it's going down because these two going down. But make no mistake, rotations in markets are ultimately bullish. So don't get suckered into thinking that's down so everything else. As long as you're seeing those rotations, it means that there's still money still looking for a home and they're just rotating, they're just still keeping exposure. If you're looking for some kind of top, what you need to see is you need to see a day, especially where all the generals get smacked, right? You can't have a day where you get excited because Facebook, Amazon and Apple are down 3%, but you've gone in videos up four, right? Or the other way around, you need, if you're looking for some kind of a weak top action, you need a day where everything gets smacked and everything moves in sync. That's usually what you, what you'd look for. Now, again, these moves, when you look at it like this, are not very, very healthy. However, if you're looking at this break, right, so these are cues, so you break higher, you pop previous resistances acting as support, these breaks usually, they go back to the scene of the crime. Now, the whole point though is that it's not usual for the market to move in a straight line. Even in this sideways pattern, when you see the market all of a sudden going upright, this tends to be unsustainable and you tend to get a correction. Now, what you have to understand is you can, you know, there's a lot of, there are a lot of downside gaps to fill. There are a lot of accidents that can happen, but here, shorter term, the levels to watch is, you know, you've got this previous high here. You've got these previous highs here and we're kind of stuck and above here, it'll probably be, start looking for a top or short, so not a top, but a short term top for a little bit of a correction. As we go into OPEX, if they pump this through OPEX, and then next week we see a little bit of heaviness, sure, but the chart is bullish, the chart, the chart short term inside this range is bullish. Now, again, what happens if the Fed has to go six, seven, eight? Well, it's going to be a bloodbath, but we're not there yet, so the problem is the market still wants to believe. The short is just, there's no edge. I mean, if you look at something, if you look at something like Oracle, I mean, to show you how the market's trading. I mean, this is absolute, so we've got a situation where the other day, it gapped up about 4%, then the following day, it gapped up like 6%, and then it closed red, right? Look at the volume too. This really smells like usually capitulation or blow off toppy. These gap ups that camp has just taken every new short, every stop out, nobody left to buy on huge volume, and then it just completely, it's dead, and it doesn't come back for years. And then yesterday, they just jacked it right back up. So it's pointless to try and get stubborn on these kind of markets because you're going to get massacred. But here, these are things you would want to watch on these names. You get big gap ups, a lot of volume day that then you get negative closes, because ultimately, don't forget, you know, everybody's like now, we're back that situation where it's kind of like the flight to safety. Okay, everything's going is a problem. The flight to safety is tech, right? Right. Now, look at this, right? So basically, we're already pricing in now 70% probability of a hike in July after the Fed. What did the Fed say? Basically, the summary of the Fed meeting, I tweeted it out. Hold on. Let's see if I can screen share this. Here you go. These are the key things from yesterday, right? Number one, terminal rate projection up 50 basis points to 5.6. No policymaker sees rate cuts this year. Expect July to be a live meeting and talking about a couple of years out for rate cuts. So you can go all you want, flight to safety into tech, but if rates are going higher, all the companies that have to buy from these tech names. Are going to get butchered, right? That's what people forget. So here, this is a situation where it's not logical. Of course, rates keep on going. All these companies are going to suffer. The tech names are going to suffer too. But here, what's going on is that market is in a craze with this tech, right? Everybody needs to own tech. People that are buying Oracle here or people that are buying Nvidia at 420 are not people, of course, there's short term dynamics, there are DTE things going on. But it's just people that need to get allocation because if you're running money and you're not owning tech, you're going to get sacked, right? If you're a fund manager and you own tech and the market crumbles. Okay, as long as you don't underperform drastically the market, nobody's ever going to get fired for if the market's down 50 and you're down 50, but you own the right name, you're never going to get fired. But if the market is up and you're not up and you don't own the right names, you're getting sacked. And that's what's happening is you've got this scramble, people are still underweight these tech names and they just need to have them, right? And we'll also see into the end of the month, end of the quarter, do they need to keep on buying them because they just want to show they have them at the end of the books when you get the quarterly report out. They want to show they have a good allocation to AI and tech. But this is not like bargain buying going on, right? That's the point, so you have to be careful.