 Hey everyone, Lee Lowell here going for another round of our Saturday synopsis today is Saturday March 19 2022 We look at the charts here in the Saturday synopsis. That's what we do technical analysis I'm trying to show you some of the stuff that I've learned over the last 30 years. I'm a technical analyst I look at the charts chart reading. That's what I do that helps me get into and out of my trades I do that for our newsletters So as we do every Saturday, let's just jump right into the charts and see what's been happening in the market and and see What may be coming forward? We always look at the SPY, which is the spy or the the exchange traded fund for the S&P 500 that gives us the best overall view of the market as a whole So what's happened this week? This was actually a pretty big week And I'm actually pretty excited about the price action that we saw this week good stuff happening bullishly wise I'm a bull In our newsletters, we take both positions So we're really glad with what we saw this week big news out there this week was the the US Federal Reserve They had that they finally announced that they're going to raise interest rates for the first time since the end of March of end of 2018 quarter basis point. So, you know 25 basis points is what they did quarter of a point. I should say So a quarter of a point is what what they're raising most people expected that and I think because of the The high inflation that we're seeing here at least in the US the Federal Reserve had to react They had to do something and raising interest rates is their best tool for taming inflation now It's not going to tame inflation overnight. That's certainly not going to happen a 25 point rise is not going to Automatically make everything cheaper It's a gradual thing if they if they shock the market by by raising It just rates by a point or more that would have been kind of rough the markets would not have liked that so this was this was Wily expected they're gonna have measured Increases over time. They plan to have at least six or seven. I think in the next year maybe more So we're expecting it. We know it's coming and they're gonna be in increments each time So there is inflation the news out there is still the Russia Ukraine conflict bad thing out there We don't like what's happening, but we're the market is sort of getting used to that that that news flow They know the invasion is happening as horrible as that invasion is The market is an ever-optimistic place The market is still made up of companies that are creating products and creating profits. They're not a lot of exposure In that Russia Ukraine area for a lot of these US companies, so market participants Look out to the future and know that things are going to be brighter in the days ahead But we still are caught up in these these very short-term news items But that's not the way you have to look at the market is it looks forward. So we have to play that game So what happened this week? Well, let's look at let's look at the market action the price action Remember price action is what the the the market is doing. It's showing you where it wants to go So since the 1st of January the market's been in this downtrend and the way that we look at our charts Is that we watch the price action? We see which way the market is moving and we draw these trend lines and these channels to help us Visually see where the market is going and one thing I've learned over my my 30 years in this business is that the market Doesn't care about your own opinion if you think the market's going to go should go lower Because all this bad stuff is happening in the world the market will always prove you wrong in the long run because the market moves The way the market does and it moves on fundamentals of the of these underlying companies and if companies are profitable The stock market has to go up But yes in the short term we're bombarded by these news items and things that are happening But but the market doesn't care what your opinion is it'll always prove you wrong at some point So I've learned over the years is that I'm not going to trade the market based on my opinion I'm going to trade the market based on what the what the market is showing me Which way the market wants to go up or down and then I base my trading decisions on that So for you know a long period of time the market was going up and we draw these these lines to show us the channel And since January the market's been in this downtrend You can see I have the upper leg here the lower leg here by these blue lines at least on my chart They're blue and so the market's been in this downtrend so bullish positions. We're not our our Play at this moment because why be bullish when the market is showing you it wants to go down And so until the market has another turn meaning higher that's when we'll get into our trade. So the market's either going up going sideways or going down and So for the last January February half of March the market's been going down But very recently what we've been seeing is we made the tide may be turning at this point Now this is the SPY so you can see I just drew this line right here showing you we may sort of Be starting a new uptrend when you start to have higher lows on the chart That's when you can start to possibly draw your uptrending channel What do I mean by that? Well each one of these bars is one day's worth of trading This is the daily bar chart for the SPY So each day is one day's worth of trading and I have my three moving averages of 20 day 50 day and 200 day moving Average those are widely followed by a lot of people So higher lows mean each each bar is one day's worth of trading So the bottom of the bar is the low of the day and when you start to have the lows of each bar starting to move in this upward fashion then you can Possibly feel or see that maybe a new leg or new direction change is happening So I just drew this this uptrending line right here Because I've been and I connect the lows the recent lows so possibly a new leg upward could be starting The other good thing we liked is that so with this new uptrend it created this triangle here this congestion pattern It's called so when the market starts to move in a tighter Tighter fashion It's gonna blow out one way or the other either to the upside or the downside of a congestion pattern There's a triangle called congestion pattern. So the mark will either move down or up So what we're seeing is the last few days since the Fed the Federal Reserve made that announcement about interest rates We had this huge jump in the market this week so Friday Thursday Wednesday. So basically Wednesday Thursday Friday We had this nice massive move even on Tuesday We finished near the highs of the day. No, I know it's kind of hard to see but This was right here This bar was Tuesday which ended near the high of the day and then Wednesday Thursday Friday So we had this nice blast higher. What I really like about this move is that What I've been saying prior is that in order for me to get excited about the next leg higher The market need to show the price action Moving outside and above this downtrending channel. So we got this blue line right here, which was enclosing the down move You can see right here. Let me open it up a little more this price action right here these two days Thursday and Friday Moved outside and above the downtrending channel. So it's coming out here. What I really liked is that it? Now finished here's Friday yesterday March 18th the little dash on the right side of the bar was where it closed for the day So it closed above this downtrending 50-day moving average right here This is the 50-day moving average and it closed above it. So we have our site set on here's the 200-day moving average right here Didn't get to it, but it got very close to Hitting the 200-day moving average now. There's two ways we can look at this number one Yes, this was a nice bullish move But in order for it to be really really confirmed we need to see it get above the 200-day moving average So we needed to get above about $445 on the SPY or SPY and and stay up there for a couple days to for me to really say okay The bear mark this bear move has ended and we're getting ready and we're entered a new bull phase So this 200-day moving average is is critical for next week right here. So around $445 we needed to get above there, but this was very constructive getting outside This downtrending channel was the first step. There's a very constructive now We needed to get above this 200-day moving average otherwise if it doesn't This is big resistance right here big resistance There's a chance it could fall back get knocked back down and possibly come back to the Upper leg of the downtrending channel, which would you know be in the around 430 level so you we have to watch this very closely it either gets through it or it gets knocked back down and now let's look at the the e-mini the e-mini futures for The S&P 500 because the futures trade a little bit longer they trade almost 24 hours a day So I want to show you this should look very similar to the SPY So here's the e-mini S&P 500 futures. This is the the June contract, which is the new front month contract So you can see it looks very similar since around January 1st coming down here's the the trend line But just like the SPY it has broken outside and above this downtrending line. The good thing here is that on on the Futures it has moved above the 50-day moving average, which is this line coming down here I know it's kind of hard to see sometimes I've got these few lines, but you can see it closed above This downtrending 50-day moving average so the futures which have longer hours gives it more time to trade So the here we got it jumped above the 50-day moving average whereas on the spy It actually I'm sorry. Let me backtrack it these the SPY has moved above the 50-day moving average I'm talking about the 200-day moving average. So let's go back to the e-mini futures Sorry about the confusion there so Here's the 200-day moving average and It has moved above it So that's a good sign for the futures the futures have a little bit more action So we're we're right on that cusp there of the market Starting this new leg higher the futures have moved above all three moving averages the 20-day The 50-day and the 200-day and it closed you can see a little dash mark right here So it's closed above all the moving averages. That's very telling on the SPY going back one more time Sorry for all this back and forth the SPY one more time. It hasn't gotten above its 200-day moving average But it's very close. So next week's very telling whether it's going to get knocked back down or it's going to continue the drive higher I'd like to see the drive higher continue. Let's look at the NASDAQ We'll look at the triple cues first Also, you can see the downtrending channel we've been in since early in the year and Just yesterday so Friday March 18th It has moved outside of the downtrending channel. You can see the price action right here Thursday and Friday We're big but look where it it tagged. Here's the downtrending 50-day moving average right where my arrow is It tagged it close right on that mark You can see right at the intersection of the downtrending 50-day moving average This is not a coincidence people these this is how price action occurs The moving averages and these and these channels will draw It's like a magnet because because a lot of people are looking at these same levels So the price action just it's not coincidence that it that it tags these or you know finds the You know connection it makes with these these moving averages. I can't tell you, you know, this is just how it happens This is how it works and so you can see the cues came right upon the 50-day moving average And here's the 200 day up here the NASDAQ has gotten hit a lot harder So it's got a ways to go until it meets the 200-day moving average But getting outside of the channel getting outside of the the downtrending channel and coming into contact with the 50-day moving average Is very important and just like the SPY We need to see whether it's going to get knocked back down Or it's gonna drive higher and then head towards its own 200-day moving average. So next week is very critical There's a lot of bears out there. There's a lot of people think there's no way this market could go up There's too much bad stuff going on out there in the world How could the market go up and as I said the market doesn't care what you think the markets Is going to do what it does and it's better to just follow the price action instead of trying to to will the market to bend to your opinion It won't work. It won't work at least enough times. It won't work So we're watching we're watching the price action I'd like to see the triple cues get through the the downtrending 50-day moving average Let's look at the NASDAQ futures. Just like we looked at the e-mini S&P 500 futures. Here's the NASDAQ futures And it looks very similar. So we had the you can see my long long blue line here, which was the downtrending channel So Thursday and Friday we got outside of that and just like the triple cues Made contact right here with the downtrending 50-day moving average So we're we're watching where this is we're at a critical point here. We don't want to see it get knocked back down We want to see a drive higher Will it drive higher it all depends on The news flow if there's some good news that comes out are Russia and Ukraine over the weekend that maybe they've got a ceasefire They've come to some agreement this market will drive higher if that lingers on if the war that war slash conflict lingers on for a bit then We may have some tentative sideways action here because people who are bearish are not going to give up so quickly and So we'll see what happens. I'm watching next week's critical I want to see a drive higher and we hope that that happens. All right, so that's that for the indexes. Let's take a look at the Let's look at some individual stock All right, let's take a look here. Let's see what we got. Let's take a look. We we look at the Most popular stocks because that's what everyone seems to be interested in so I give my opinion on what I think these stocks are doing Let's take a look at apple Start with apple And we'll go from there Open this up a little so you can see apple has sort of been in this downtrending channel Just looking at the direction you can see and if you want to use some visuals You can always draw yourself some trend lines. You kind of draw you kind of It's not an exact science. You connect some tops You connect some bottoms and it gives you just a visual of which way the price action is going Okay, so obviously we're in this bit of a downtrending channel Overall though the market apple is moving higher So it's in an upward trajectory But it has these you know downtrends to to contend with over time But what we like here is that here's the 200 day moving average down here apple Briefly traded below it But jump back above it with the rest of the market So apple had a pretty good week started on the lows right around 150 and started to move higher And it just under 164 dollars a share. So we like the way apple looks here What's going to decide which way apple goes is how it moves once it connects Here's the 50 day moving average here and obviously the downtrending channel So what we want to see is it keep going higher Blast outside and above the channel and the 50 day moving average get out up here somewhere And then keep driving higher We know apple is a great company over the long run. It's going to keep going higher It's just how it contends with this this channel at the moment same with all the other stocks and the indexes themselves It's all about where the price action is in conjunction to the moving averages and and in the channel lines That's how that's how prices react Okay, so we want to see it get blast higher if it can get above 170 Here's 170 if you just kind of scroll across I'll make it a little bit easier for you 170 if it can get above 170 then we're off to the races all time new highs again um, let's take a quick look at the At Warren Buffett. I mentioned Warren Buffett last week in his Berkshire Hathaway And I had shown a report that I wrote. It's on my website. I'll show that to you again We had some interest this week. So where is my Berkshire Hathaway? Okay, so down here Thing is here's here's Berkshire Hathaway when I have these bright numbers in my screens here That means it's made a new high for the year and let's click on Berkshire Hathaway and see what happened So once again, yes Uh, Warren Buffett does it again all time new highs for his Berkshire Hathaway fund. Just look at this nice trajectory compared to the SPY which is having trouble You know, it's been in this downtrend But but Warren Buffett has just been killing it been nailing it and his his share price has been going up So that's a great thing for for owners of Berkshire Hathaway. What I do want to show you once again on my website Um, we I have this report that I wrote If you're interested in in piggybacking Warren Buffett for you know, a lot cheaper than buying Buying the fund I wrote this report go to our website smart options seller calm Click on the more link the more heading here and go to shop and it will bring up my report that I wrote The secret to buying Warren Buffett for pennies on the dollars. It's an options trading strategy That you may enjoy reading about and it's a great way and you can do it on any stock But you know, we chose Warren Buffett because he's one of the greatest traders of all time And if you want to tag along with him this options trading strategy can help you do that. All right, so let's go back to The chart so Warren Buffett doing well. We looked at apple. Let's look at tesla Tesla is always an ever popular stock now very interesting here We can see tesla has been caught in this downtrend Just like the rest of the market just like most other stocks But what we like here is that here is the 200 day moving average right here And it had been spending some time above and below it and just this week. It was able to pop back above it pop Outside of the downtrending channel. You can see right here Here's friday's trading this one day right here has made its way outside of the downtrending channel and once again Also just tagged its 50 day moving average. Here's the 50 day moving average a very important moving average tagged it right there so Tesla is at a critical juncture as well for next week. Will it Continue to power above the 50 day moving average And assert itself or will it get knocked back down? These are this week is going to be very telling this coming week is going to be very telling for a lot of stocks That are making their way outside of the downtrending channel and making their way above 50 day moving averages So keep an eye on tesla Could be a big week for tesla amazon Also had a pretty big week too It was here around $2,700 and now it's above $3,200 so big move this week for for amazon But it just kind of puts itself back into this long Long sideways channel that it's had that has been in forever You can kind of see the w pattern here if you if you envision a w Which is usually a bullish pattern It's not an exact w, but you can see it sort of looks like a w that is a More of a bullish pattern. We can draw the resistance line right around here So you kind of want if you're bullish on amazon you want to get it above this new W resistance line once it gets above here Then it has this moving average to contend with And if it can get above that it we'd like to see it move higher But but amazon's been caught in this thing for a long time RSI on its way up not overbought not oversold So it has some more room to move to the upside I next week's going to be a very telling week for a lot of these stocks. Let's look at amd I look at amd every week because I'm Disclosure I'm long amd bullish amd. I like amd It didn't move as much this week as most of the other stocks Which was a little bit confusing for me not concerning but confusing considered a lot of these other stocks had big moves this week amd didn't have the biggest move $100 still seems to be The support area For amd comes down to 100 and people buy it up Um, I don't like this law. I'm gonna take away this trend line I don't remember when I drew that but I don't like the way that one looks Let me move remove this one and we're going to put in a new a hundred hundred dollar $100 support line Right around here or so Right hundred dollars That's where it seems to find support rallied a little bit got up to 113 finished over 113 yesterday friday Um, I'd like to see it start to blast above these Moving averages. Here's the 50 day coming down here It's it's here's the 200 day so a kind of it's at the tip of the 200 day moving average That that might act as resistance for a period of time until it could blast its way higher So amd not as strong as some of the other stocks I would have liked amd to get at least above its this 50 day moving average this week, but it didn't So it may take amd a little bit longer to get its mojo back But I'm hoping that a hundred dollars is going to be the bottom line here That'll hold support all the time and then then eventually it should move higher But for now amd's got a little bit more work to do than some of these other stocks. So let's keep an eye on amd Let's look at disney and wal-mart Disney also support right around 130. I've been telling you I'm a buyer at 130. That's where the support has been disney moved up close around 140 this week so You know got ten dollars worth of gain for me so far You know as far as disney goes. I needed to see it keep going. You can see Here's the 20 day moving averages blue line. So it came in contact with the 20 day moving average Got the 50 day lurking above also. So so disney's got some work to do as well You got the 200 day lurking up here. So disney is well below all these moving averages It's got some work to do certainly. It's got some work to do Hoping that's the support at 130 will remain But it's it's got a lot to To work through getting through these moving averages. So disney's not going to be powering higher massively anytime soon I don't think because there's people that are waiting up here probably to sell their shares That's what some people do. So disney's You know, I'm still bullish in the long run, but but it should it'll probably take a little bit longer For them to get going again. I'll walmart What do I see on walmart? Lots of lines and triangles and congestion patterns So walmart is sort of just kind of stuck in this pattern here in this sideways channel Not really going anywhere. If you're a bull on on walmart like I am Okay, well at least we're getting dividend payments and not getting a lot of price appreciation But you get the dividends 135 still remains the support here And you know, I'm a buyer around 135 and it's around 145 now So, um, you know walmart's just doing its sideways action for now I'm hoping that eventually you can get above this 152 and a half range at some point in time We'll have to we'll have to wait for that. Let's see what other stocks we have Let's go through the lists here that are worthy looking at. All right, so let's look at netflix. We'll look at netflix. We'll look at paypal Netflix I had the 350 level drawn some support in the last week or so But you can see it it fell through it for a couple days, but it has now powered back up So maybe 350 is the floor here for netflix still has a lot of work to do it had gotten hit pretty hard um Don't know how quickly it'll it'll bounce back up, but you have this 50 day moving average lurking above here And so that might be the next target for netflix if we start in this new long-term bull trend netflix will obviously go higher but but a lot of damage has been done here on netflix So it's going to take a little while to gain the trust of of traders that want to buy this thing up So netflix still kind of hanging around the lows I don't have anything on it, but you know 350 could be the support for netflix. We'll look at facebook too because that Similar to netflix a lot of damage had been done Maybe floor around you know 185 dollars here finished at 216 for the week So it had a good run just like everything else, but still a lot of damage has been done Facebook's got a lot of work to do to to regain the trust and get all the way back up here So I've got nothing on facebook as far as positions go Um, what else what else is worthy of note? Okay, let's look at paypal. I like paypal. I've been talking about the payment providers paypal and square But but they got hit pretty hard too. I own some paypal my my Buying level is around a hundred and thirty dollars a share or so been buying some on the way down I've got a little making up to do to get back to break even But I think we may have found a bottom here on paypal Had a pretty good week. It was under a hundred dollars a share Powered higher, but just like facebook and netflix It's got a lot of work to do. I mean it's come down 300 a share all the way down to a hundred that was that's a big move So it's got some work to do. I'm holding on for the long run because I like the payment sector I'm under my buying level. I'm holding a losing position But I'm holding out for the long run because I think the thing's going to start to move back higher Let's look at square Look not every trade is going to work out right not every trade is going to be a winner But if you have conviction in what the business is and what you think the company will do in the long run Then maybe you stick to your guns. I'm sticking to my guns on paypal square Had was in this down trending channel got hit really hard just like paypal did But you can see the tide is starting to turn. Here's the downtrend now It's moved sideways and starting to move up. So if you want to draw a little bit of a new You can see you can draw connect some of the bottom. So maybe Maybe square is starting to enter a new up trending channel Okay. Whoops get rid of that So keep an eye on square keep an eye on paypal So this could be the beginning of the turning point for the price action You can see it's got a little bit of an upside action here So maybe maybe square is on its way higher Keep an eye on this upper level here. It could get knocked back down if the whole market gets knocked back down next week Square will come back down as well But as long as this starting to move in this upwards fashion Even though it's bouncing down. It's still starting to move higher from the low point. So keep an eye on that Let's see what else we got Um, let's see move mcdonald's had a nice comeback pepsi Let's look at coca cola because i'm a fan of coke as well Great long-term dividend pair coke. You can see just the upwards trajectory the price action has been upwards You know has its fits and starts had this little sell-off here Still above the 200 day moving average. So coke in the long run over years and years and years Is is a quality company to hold on to good dividend paying company You can see just kind of slowly moves higher. So coke not a bad investment for the long run Um twitter starting to get off its lows here. Let's look at twitter Had been in this downtrend starting the sideways action Maybe starting to move up got above the 20 day and 50 day moving averages which are both down here So twitter may be getting getting off the lows trying to find itself a bottom Um, let's see. Let's see. What else we got? Now chlorox i've talked to you about before i had a position chlorox had to sell out because It just wasn't moving in the right direction for me still moving down chlorox getting hit pretty good Colgate as well. Let's look at colgate Look at this. Look at this massive down move. Yes, it had a bad day yesterday Colgate just look at this long down bar You don't like to see that when everything else is going up and you see a stock like this getting hit That's not a good sign. So Colgate you can draw the trend lines Colgate just in this This kind of nasty downtrending channel right here. So Uh, you know nothing on colgate yet Eventually, hopefully Colgate will go back up for right now. The price action is telling you no Don't it's not time to get in on colgate. So use the price action use the channels to give you an idea of what you're looking for um Now we've been looking at in the past some of the commodities because commodities are are back in play these days Where's my crude oil? So here's crude oil This is the crude oil futures market Had this massive move higher in two weeks ago or a week and a half ago The invasion with russia just sent up the price of oil had had this nice pullback as well But you know, maybe finding support at the 20 day moving average. I'm not playing crude oil that that was my first Venture into trading is in the oil markets We don't want to see high gas prices But this is with what's happening in the world with russia. It's it's sending the price of oil higher It's had a nice pullback But so keep an eye on that if you're if you're playing the oil market may found some support here may continue to go up Depending on what happens with russia and ukraine. We've got The soybean market Let's here. Let me pull it up from the screens here Um, here's the soybean market soybean futures still on the highs Maybe finding support at the 20 day moving average. We got wheat futures or wheat futures topped out had a couple limit up moves Week and a half ago or so two weeks ago and now it's pulled back finding support at the 20 day moving average So commodities are still in play You know, I know a lot of people don't don't play them. I just like to keep a watch Let me just see if there's any other stocks. We really want to look at that are worthy of looking at The healthcare stocks got hit a little bit. Let's see merc still kind of Tread and water. Where's my johnson and johnson? Let's look at johnson and johnson real quick Johnson and johnson starting to make its way hard not not too bad Healthcare is always going to be around people people need to take care of their health So the healthcare sector should always be a decent play. All right. I think that's it for now Nothing else of note that I wanted to show you Um, some of the other big players. Here's adobe You these expensive stocks adobe has gotten hit pretty good Hopefully trying to find a bottom here hugging the 20 day moving average envidia You know people ask me about some of these stocks envidia I like the move that envidia had this week has moved back above all three of its moving average Just a couple days ago. It was below all the moving averages now pop back above So envidia could have some strength here. That's why I'd like to see amd move higher That's why I was a little surprised that amd didn't move as much higher this week envidia same sec same sector plays in chip stocks envidia had a good move So i'm hoping amd gets off its butt next week and moves higher Um, but but but but but I think that's I think that's about it. Shopify People asked me about Shopify. We talked about Shopify Shopify got hit real hard too $1,700 a share all the way down to $500 a share But had a pretty massive move yesterday. Look at this one day right here. It's up $122 a share So it's almost made back what it what it lost in this this little move here And in just a couple days it gained it all back almost $300 a share in a couple days So is Shopify done going down? We'll see it's got the 50 day moving average right here to contend with So that watch this area for the next area possible resistance All right getting long here about 35 minutes. Let's Call the Saturday synopsis a day one more time SPY Reiterate what we're looking for next week got the the 200 day moving average right here As possible resistance will it get knocked back down or will it get off Get off its butt and and grind higher next week telling we coming up. All right Let's call it right there quickly. Let's go to our website smartoptionseller.com Our website here smartoptionseller.com click on our put selling basics. That's what we do for the most part We sell put options. We sell put option spreads. We take bullish positions. Those strategies are more bullish Lee oriented trades So if you want to learn about put selling go to our website get a free copy of our put selling basics ebook Any the other things that we do here's our services tab over here. We run two newsletters We sell put options. We sell put option spreads and we have our one-on-one coaching if you need a little help Getting over the hump. All right, so that's it. Hope this video has been helpful. Don't forget to give me a thumbs up Subscribe to this youtube channel hit that red subscribe button. Leave a comment. Send me an email You know the drill. All right, that's all for me today. Hope everyone has a good weekend and a great trading week ahead I'll try to see you back here actually next week We're spring break here where I am for the kids So I'm going to be out of out of town probably so I don't think there'll be an update next week And maybe not the weekend after but we'll see so Hope to be back here soon enough. All right, everyone. This is Lee Lowell signing off