 Obviously, our weekly charting analysis webinar, my name is Jasper Lawler. I've got the risk warning on the screen that we have to go through just for compliance purposes before we kick off our webinar. There we are. In all honesty, a little bit of a quiet day kicking off the week. It's obviously a shortened week. We've got Good Friday on Friday. And that's celebrated not just by us but by U.S. markets as well. And so that in combination with almost deliberately slower economic calendar in the lead-up, it's going to maybe take some of the volatility out of FX markets. I noted on Twitter that already volatility started to come out of the FX market. You know, it's very easy to track just Euro-dollar as the main benchmark there. And the true range for the Euro-dollar was about 60% of its average true range over the last 14 days. So you can see it's starting to contract a bit. And that's, I think, even more extreme today. We're not seeing too much movement. The only one notably is the pound, which isn't too dramatic. It's certainly one of the bigger laggards today. After that news about the in Duncan Smith quitting the front bench of the Tory party after the budget. And so that normally doesn't matter, that kind of thing, a bit of sort of internal party politics. But obviously we've got the referendum coming up. And the government is in favour of staying. So in Duncan Smith is one of the MPs who favours exiting. So it obviously, I would say it slightly damages the remain campaign, obviously. And so that's where you see the pound come off a bit. We'll come back and talk about the pound in more detail. But I think maybe worth just having a little look back on what happened last week in terms of its impact on equity markets. The most interesting by far, not today so much, looking like a pretty flat open in US markets. But overall, this is our daily chart for the USSE, our proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, pulled out a little bit, maybe more than I would normally do. It zoomed out a bit just because of this declining trend line. That's the all-time high. And it's connected these two peaks quite well from November, excuse me. And as you can see, had a pretty much vertical rally off the February low, and we're just running into this trend line now. So just a little, I'm not necessarily saying this trend line will cap the advance, but I think it's pretty hard to dispute that this rally is pretty overextended at this point. Now, you can remain above in overbought territory on the RSI and other indicators for a long period of time when the trend is in place. So never would I advocate just selling out of your long position or going short just because we're above 70 on the RSI or anything like that. But we do have this trend line resistance, and then even if we get through the trend line, which I think is probably quite probable, we have some of these peaks beginning at this December 28th, 29th area, and then back up to the November peaks pretty much at that 18,000 mark. So interestingly, I'm sure you've probably read online or in the papers, but up and around this vicinity not far around 17, 500 to 600 mark on the Dow Jones takes the index back into positive territory for the year, and you can pretty much see that according to our charts. We were talking about these peaks from December, and then when we look at the 1st of January, the 4th of January, the first opening trade year is down here somewhere. So we're obviously above that at the moment. So quite the abrupt turnaround. Really nice classic double bottom pattern. The objective for the double bottom was about 1715. I don't know if you can probably note, 17505. So nicely reached. We got a little pause in that area, I think, but barely, and we've just popped high for the next day and stalled a little bit today, but mostly because of the lower trading volume more than any real attempt to sell off. So I don't know if you've read what is normally Michael's morning report, but I wrote it today, just referencing the importance of the US dollar. So I'll close down the US 30 for a second. But one thing for why it's important for US stocks, the Iranian stocks began before the dollar started losing value, so the two are not completely in sync, and the dollar doesn't completely explain everything, but I think it's added a bit of extra strength to the rebound, which could have just been a dead-cap bounce off the lows and in a swiftly drop into lower lows, but I think part of the reason that didn't happen is that the weaker dollar did a couple of things. I would say three important things. One is that it added support to the bounce in oil because obviously it was denominated in dollars. Two, it improves the prospect for US company earnings, and you can see that's partly why US stocks are doing so much better than European stocks. I mean there's a bit of fundamentally higher profits being made by US companies in general, but still the multinationals have suffered a bit from the stronger dollar because obviously their foreign earnings, they try and repatriate it back to the US and they're not as much from it. So now that's going to be a boost to the bottom line of the multinationals, like Apple, who obviously they've got their product launched today. That's probably the biggest event for today, given the lack of economic data. That's about 6 p.m. GMT when Apple I think are going to be launching a smaller, cheaper iPhone and we'll have to see how markets react if that is the case, but those companies are likely to do better. And then the other big concern at the start of the year was the Chinese Yuan and because the dollar has lost some value, the Chinese Yuan is paid against the dollar. The people's bank of China haven't had to depreciate the Yuan against the dollar as much, which was a big worry that that was a policy goal of theirs to boost Chinese exports. So that was confirmed again today by the Premier in China and I think that's part of the reasons why the German DAX was leading gains kind of sagging back a bit now, but why we saw a bit of a big leg higher. But this is obviously the dollar index. You can see we've really come down a fair bit from the peak and we just had a bit of a bounce on Friday and seeing a bit more gains today but not too much, like I said, low volatility. We've looked at U.S. markets, this is the FTSE 100 or our proxy for it at least. You can see we're just compared to the U.S. markets, which are now well above their 200-day moving average and you could probably say something equivalent to 6,800 or something if the FTSE 100 were to be matching the Dow Jones. It would be way up here, but it's not. In a sense, it is because it's challenging these same time period highs but obviously that bounce was that much shallower off the lows in August. In U.S. markets, it's got a good bounce off the lows in August and then came lower. FTSE 100 has basically been in this range and we had this double fake-out lower, which hasn't materialized in any big losses. And now we're kind of doing the same on the top side where this was the high. We tried to break out but just sort of failed so far. It's not triggering a sort of big bounce back as this is because obviously on the downside you have short covering. So people short the position, short the market below this low, scramble to get out and anyone short anywhere looking to re-enter the market short on the bounce cover and that adds to the buying. So don't get that quite so much on the upside but nonetheless a bit of a fake-out higher at the moment. We're below the 200-day moving average and the higher we get into this range, the bigger the risk of the market rolling over. There's not really a defined trend and obviously in terms of sort of value trading we're near the top or end of the trading range than the bottom. And starting to get to the stage where sales are higher probability than buyers at this point. We've not made a higher high in the daily chart for a little while. We have on the weekly chart that's this but we've made a lower low on the weekly chart too so not too much of a defined trend and we're running into this 200-day moving average. So this is not really looking like a top pattern to me but nonetheless it doesn't necessarily have to when we're just in a trading range. This is not really a top pattern either. Arguably a triangle ready to break out to the top side but it didn't. You could see something similar here where we chopped down and just run out of steam and roll over. Quick look at European markets in comparison. That was just looking at it. We got quite a sharp bounce early. Sort of around the time those Chinese remarks were coming out I believe and got quite a strong bounce but really given a lot of those up now. I think with the thin liquidity no one had the confidence that that move was going to get sustained and we reached 10,100 and just rolled straight back but it's 10,000 again. So this is really interesting in the DAX because here's the breakout from the head and shoulders pattern but that's bearish and golfing pattern that we saw on Thursday which if I'm not mistaken was the ECB day is basically making that whole breakout look a bit ominous and today if it finished the same way it would be another fake out hire and add scope to the idea this head and shoulders pattern is about to break and if it does it's fairly clear pattern. I certainly won't be the only one with this on my chart with this left shoulder, head, right shoulder. Then if it drops back below the neckline considerably particularly below Thursday's low then I think that's quite a strong signal of weakness in the market and obviously bear in mind that we are still below the 200 day moving average so a lot of reasons to think the market could see significant weakness if this pattern gives way. So definitely keep your eye on 9,940-ish about where we are at the moment on the Germany 30 as a proxy not just for German stocks but for the FTSE and for US stocks as well. I did mention for anyone new today obviously feel free to chuck through any questions if you had some on maybe a market less likely to be covered by me. I'm just going to cover the major effects pairs and commodities coming up next. We've got about 15 minutes left of the webinar so definitely feel free to send those my way if it is something a bit more lengthy always feel free to send me a direct private message as well. I can talk to you outside the forum of the public webinar. So one of the reasons that European stocks have been underperforming in the last week or so was obviously that kind of failure of the ECB policy to really kick into gear and then the Fed meeting kind of rubbing salt into the wounds because really even though the ECB have doubled down on their quantitative easing program and cutting interest rates into the negative it's not helped weak in the Euro because the Fed is looking less likely to raise rates at this point. So this Euro strength is not really I think I said the exact same line in the last week's webinar. It's not because of strength in the Euro it's just relative weakness in the dollar that's pushing the Euro higher here. You know these are basically the sort of the peak here you know it's kind of what's happening as about this sort of 1340. I think it's 1375-80 which is the peak from the 11th of Feb. This 11th of Feb is a big date in a lot of markets it's called a bottom-in stocks top-in gold top I think the gold has surpassed it's things I think so silver top in the Euro so a bit of a sort of risk asset swing point so when some of these markets brush through here it could be meaningful. The Euro is stalled at the moment so we've got an inside day from Friday so we'll just have to see we've got a break to the downside but it's pulling back in the inside day I mean that's fairly typical to be honest you shouldn't get too scared from an inside day break out just because it pulls back into the day you know obviously that's a lot of an intraday movement doesn't necessarily mean it's not heading lower but should the day close like this or even higher that'd be a bit of a fake out from an inside day and could be a good sign that the market's going to push back into that peak so to look up for that as a little potential opportunity to at least maybe go and test those those highs just beneath 114. Overall though bit like when we were looking at the pound hard to really pick up a massive sorry was it the pound or the footsie this is not really a trending market right now the Euro so you've got to pick your spots again like I said there we're in a basically a sort of choppy sideways market so in that kind of environment selling near peaks buying near troughs tends to be a bit more effective than buying breakouts or selling you know selling breakouts so if we pop through this high my thinking is that the there's a greater likelihood that we roll over drop down again than there is that this move gets a continuation higher because you know look at the significant layers of resistance that we have not far above you know all those different levels are going to have different sellers looking to sell into the strength particularly with the general fundamental view that you know the eCV is obviously going in the opposite direction to the Fed even if the Fed slowed down a bit we mentioned Sterling but otherwise seems like we've put a bit of a bottom in I'm not sure it's going to dip back through 140 before the referendum it could do before the referendum but it would really only be a bit of a sort of Scottish referendum style I suppose where the polls start getting really really midway and uncertain closer to the date of the referendum that said yeah I think the polls are the only things you have to go on before an election but I think there's been a lot of evidence recently to say the polls you know are often very wrong but at the moment we've made a higher high we've stalled above that high and now we're dropping below similar to the Euro and they're getting a little fake out lower so we'll have to see whether we can sustain but to me this is a this is a pattern of uncertainty not necessarily bearishness this sort of spinning top doji type pattern that we saw in front but it is just right after a breakout so you know not really what you want to see particularly today's action dropping through the low you know you want to see that move continue but you know it looks like we've just run out of steam and same kind of deal we've got lots of layers of resistance above here it's not really an outwardly uptrending market we're well below the tune today moving average so difficult to buy breakouts you know if anyone who jumped in long maybe around 144.60 or something above that high to me well obviously benefit of hindsight but it's that's riskier than if you were like going for a breakdown below this low obviously that didn't work out you know most strategies see a good high percentage of mistrades of the nature of trading but to me that that would be a high probability trade looking for the breakdown there than this one would up here because of the nature of the trend that we're in as I said you know no coincidence really that that breakout failed and that breakout failed because it's like I said in these sideways choppy markets the breakout trades tend to have a lower probability than just buying off the undervalued or selling the overvalued near the near support resistance I mean now that I guess that is more generally the case you know if we're getting into a kind of trading dynamics in general obviously the breakout trades work less often but when they do work they work really nicely particularly if you're able to you know if you've got a strategy in place to be able to hold on to them you know sort of trolling stock-triot strategy you know obviously the many losses are made up for by that big win it's kind of the nature of the beast but I think you get my point look at euro again just versus sterling I've been laying out this this range for a while now this 0.77 to 0.79 range it's fairly clear cut and it's been great for you know selling the top of the range buying the bottom of the range at some point it's got a breakout not really clear which way this still looks more like a continuation pattern to me but could develop into a triple top just you know a modest head and shoulders pattern and you know we've got to you know we've got to look again for the breakout so it could be another fake breakdown but as we said before you know you get a lot of false breaks but you've got to keep taking them and eventually one goes in your favour and then you've got to cling on to it as best you can Dolly Yen similar situation going on where we've we've basically put in what could be a triple bottom we've had two false breaks below that 111 mark and haven't been able to get any further but you know obviously the trend is very much down so I tend to think there is more likely hit of a drop down to 110 than there is a break of this declining trendline but still you know again when we're talking about a sideways market the hybrid the higher probability trade is buying these supports selling news resistances rather than looking for the breakout I think what we could maybe get is given that we've had two fake outs I mentioned this in the chart forum is that we've got a bit of potential support turned into resistance maybe from these lows around the one sort of in a 112-25 ish so if we do get a little rebound to there maybe that's an area that the market can roll over again for to achieve the breakout just had a question about Brexit I mean I've got my own opinions on Brexit but for the moment for the moment I don't think that you know it's weighing on sterling you know I think it's every bit of news around Brexit Brexit is typically important for sterling but we're not seeing any influence on markets and we're not seeing really any influence on stocks I would argue and probably won't until closer to the until the actual June referendum date so yeah obviously got my opinions on whether we're better off in Europe or not but I'll leave everyone to make their own decision on that one I'm highlighting Brent here but the WTI obviously we were lower early on in oil basically in this 40 level in WTI is causing a lot of problems we had a drop on Friday that was the first drop after two nice days of gains and you can see the market's working quite orderly in oil you know benefit of hindsight obviously and you know you get a few little false breaks and things but nonetheless reasonable stoplosses even selling what has been a very strong revire you're getting some little dips at where you'd expect the dips to come from and so obviously the WTI mark here you know a nice trade if you were to have the opportunity I think would be maybe another drop down to this 3750 and then eyeing 40 and 43 again that would be in line with the trend and so have a higher probability than if we try and sell this 43, sorry this 40 level on rebound but then again 43 again with significant support for a while so we get up to there I think that could be some resistance again you know just below it we have these two peaks but we haven't got there yet 40 is a big round number and on Friday we saw US rigs have their first increase this year so that's kind of the pattern that we're going to see in markets in oil sorry for a while I think these US shale producers are very quick to get back online and start pumping oil again and so once we get a bump rise in the oil price suddenly US supply starts increasing again and drives the price back down so until we see other sources of supply normally namely OPEC and other kind of long term deep water projects coming offline we're going to get this short term effect higher supply for much from shale lower price lower output from shale back and forth gold has lost a bit of its lust over the last few days I mean largely down to the dollar dollar weakness a little bit of dollar strength that we've been seeing and this channel is kind of working we haven't had a chance to go up and test the 1300 mark yet and it looks like to me at this point I mean it's a consolidation so you know there's some pretty large tails both from the top and the downside hard to really tell which way it's going to go with the short term trend favours a break higher below the 200 week moving average below 1300 favours a break lower so difficult to call at the moment you know sort of feel like it's due a big correction but that's not to say I can't have another little pop first my assumption I would say I'd probably default towards if we do get a move up to 1300 then is the higher probability area for a deeper sell off quickly touch on copper because we've got a an interesting pattern here we know we tried to take out the previous peak for march failed to do so and put in the shooting stuff so if we got a close below there especially that's quite a bearish signal especially as we just made it above the 200 day moving average not really confirmed at the moment we'll have to see how today closes but if today's close is lower or even if just today's peak is lower than the Fridays we're going to have a bit of bearish divergence higher high and a lower low reversal candlestick pattern towards a correction there in silver perhaps down to 220 again perhaps lower okay that's it for this week's webinar we've pretty much got a couple minutes left thank you very much all for attending hope it was helpful good luck with trading this week didn't really cover too many of the major economic announcements coming up really because there isn't many we do have US durable goods probably the the biggest one tomorrow is quite big because we've got the Eurozone PMIs both German major German business and investor confidence surveys out and UK inflation data all out tomorrow and then we have UK retail sales on Thursday that's the same day as the durable goods again and then just nothing on Friday for the bank holiday so probably not going to be economic data necessarily driving things hence not the big influence in the webinar today watch out for the direction of the US dollar we do have the Fed and ECB speakers trying to influence things so watch out for that thanks again everyone and have a happy Easter cheers