 And we're live everybody welcome to digital asset news and not financial vice This is our sixth episode from when we started amazing how time flies to my right We've got guy from coin bureau and of course Ben from into the crypto verse gentlemen welcome Thanks for having us Rob. Yeah, of course, and you know, it's if you don't I don't know Maybe you've living under rock and haven't seen these two gentlemen, but here are their respective YouTube channel Ben's Powerhouse it puts out some really great information, especially with all the things that he does on his website Which I steal religiously and all the information he has and then of course guy I've got two channels guy over at coin bureau and then coin bureau eclipse So if you haven't checked them out links in the description. So gentlemen Let's talk about it today and get into it. So the first thing is this there's four different questions I had and the kind of there's a lot of nuances to it. So the first one is this This bull run it kind of caught some people by surprise, of course, some people said that they knew at the whole time I think they're a bunch of liars or whatever and And it really comes out of this. Can we sustain this little bull run? Is this still a bear a bull trap and what can we see throughout 2023 next one is What are Bitcoin the crypto markets biggest challenges to overcome and it's actually foster growth This could be in any kind of direction you want third It's all about the exit strategy So I know we're far away from the blow-off top and a parabolic bull run But do you have a plan right now to take some profits when we get to that stage as opposed to just buying the dip? Or are you one of those diamond hands forever people and then lastly since we've all been through multiple bear and bull markets all of us What kind of insights gonna give to the people especially to the crypto class of 2021 and then of course we'll do a little Q&A at the very end. So first things first This is gonna be difficult. So This many bull run that we're going on right now Like I don't know what's are we still up in the in the market itself Or do we take a little bit of a dip with the earnings report coming out yesterday? I don't really I haven't really taken a peek at the prices lately I mean the NASDAQ is down But the last time I checked the NASDAQ was on like a one and a half percent or something at least in after-hours Or an early trading, but I don't I mean for the most part. Oh now it's down 2% Okay, so it has taken it has taken some a lot of a hit, but the Dow Jones hasn't really taken much of a hit and The S&P is down about 1% Yeah, and then of course, how are we doing? Crypto is is dipping It's yeah, certainly a noticeable dip, but yeah, just in just obviously in the last kind of half hour since that jobs data came out Yeah, and that's yeah, and this is the big thing because like and we'll get into this so I Have been a pretty big bear lately Bearish sentiment, but I mean with the rate hike slowing the housing market sustaining inflation reducing The unemployment rate is declining. We'll take a look at it real quick And then guy did a video of just recently China reopening That's on the positive. Are we in for a soft landing? Is that what it looks like and and just to to break it all down we take a look here with The unemployment rates so we just saw today We are down to three point four percent from three point five three point seven from October three point six three point five and now three point four Also, we take a look at the housing market purchase only housing price index I mean we took a dip there, but now we're going up again, and then we take a look at personal savings I mean, of course in 2021 or 2021 the coronavirus it was Astronomical, but if people are have bottomed out and now they're starting to save a little bit more And then also we take a look at the sentiment Michigan consumer sentiment index I mean that took an all-time not an all-time low But a pretty big dip in June and we're right back up to where we before and then of course China reopening like I said guy in your video, so the thing is Are we on the precipice of something big and can we sustain this throughout 2023 a guy? I'll start with you. There's a lot to go over, but this is what we got Yeah, yeah, I'll focus on a few things. I mean first up I'm amazed that the kind of mini bull run we've had over the past few weeks. I'm amazed that that's been sustained at all Given the given the outlook. Okay. Yeah I mean, you're right, Rob. You can't argue with with some of the statistics out there inflation is coming down And it's clear that that what Jerome and co at the Fed have been trying to do is is working and I think I remember seeing recently manufacturing output in the US is is kind of down as well Which again suggests that that that this is working. That's what the Fed is trying to do It is it is and Jerome has said so it is trying to suppress growth in order to in order to crush inflation And so that appears to be working and obviously we're getting I think Bloomberg the other day said Something along the lines of this may that you know With with the latest with the latest rate hike just the other day We we may be in for a not so much a Fed pivot as a Fed pirouette Which I thought that's pretty good Yeah, I quite like that So I think yeah, there's obviously obviously the markets are very optimistic Given this again. I thought Jerome in his press conference was he came across to me kind of fairly unequivocal I mean, he he said in in black and white. We don't we don't plan to to lower rates this year So yeah, well, I'm expecting I'm expecting another rise another 25 point rise to well That would take us to 5% in next month, wouldn't it at the next meeting? And then I kind of imagine that's where we'll stay for for for the time being for the for the probably the rest of the year Well, that's that's certainly what Jerome is implying And and obviously, you know, there's certain things that the PCE Was it last week the PCE came out 3.9, which is obviously well below well below interest rates now, right? So, yeah, I mean, there's there's there's certainly there's certainly positive signs And I guess I guess the market is taking is taking a lot of heart from the fact that this is working However, I think there are I think there are so many things and as you say things like housing seems to be holding up We've obviously had this this Positive jobs jobs growth today. So the economy seems to be taking it in its stride and Of course, I mean, I am looking at things like we had these very very disappointing tech earnings just yesterday, wasn't it? I mean, these were I think those were alphabets Googles Google alphabets were they their worst ones since worst earnings since 2016 Does that does that sound right? Well, first time they've missed I think since 2016 first time they'd missed Okay, but again a lot of the misses are just revised. I mean the estimates are often revised down before they go out anyway, so Yeah, so yeah, so like yeah, so is it I mean it looks like it's pretty positive like I said But you know, you never know with the markets. I mean, can we really keep this going? I think that would be the big question Can we keep this going 2023 and even if we take a look at like the yield curve? I mean that that's been inverted for quite some time We can take a look at just like what you talked about with the earnings the miss earnings report I think they're gonna have some more coming out So, yeah What do you think? Yeah, I think I mean it's an interesting one with the yield yield curve Someone pointed out to me yesterday that Campbell Harvey the guy who popularized this this this idea of an inverted yield curve leads to a recession He's apparently now said that this time this time is different for the first time ever So yeah, maybe that that that's that seems to support perhaps the soft landing theory Yeah, it is an odd one that and I mean obviously people are people are buying bonds But people are buying longer term bonds aren't they which suggests that a lot of market outlook is is not great for the short term So I think that I think many people still believe there is a recession kind of imminent and Of course, there are still there are still all these all these big macro factors I think the war in Ukraine I mean that is now approaching that's now approaching its first anniversary, isn't it which is just crazy and and that seems to be Escalating I mean from what I can gather It's gonna take it's gonna take a bit of time for all these tanks and things to get there But it does seem that that is poised to to really get a lot lot more intense Maybe as the as the weather kind of gets better. So there's that and then of course, we've also yeah I got this this this deal of China reopening which I Think it could it could fall either way on the one hand and the one hand is supposedly I think going to be good for supply chains Unclog unclog those a bit more But likely bad for inflation a Chinese citizens have around 700 billion dollars worth of excess savings to spend So Yeah, so that's that's a lot of money kind of waiting to sort of crash over the crash over the economy Whether they do actually go out and spend that is is another matter But that's certainly something that's that's concerning me for that for the next few months ahead the well Well, I'll say this one last thing one more thing China is crushing us on our savings account is dwindling But of course we're going up a little bit and then before I get to Ben I will say that you know the market doesn't like Some type of instability or uncertainty and I will say that as we move forward in the Ukraine war, you know America just said they're gonna Ship over their tanks. It seems like the more we get into it the more comfortable We get the more it's not like this this type of thing that shakes the markets again We were in Afghanistan for two decades and it didn't seem like when we first went in and shook the markets But as time went on we're just like well, that's just how the world goes So not that it's the right thing or the wrong thing just saying it seems like the market's like yeah, whatever So Ben it's amazing how quickly they they shrug sort of thing you get used Get used to these sort of things, you know this this huge land war raging in Europe that threatens us all and it's like Oh, that's yeah, it's been going on for a year now, and it's it's no longer making the headlines Yeah, they won't care Fortunately, all right. So Ben so guy that's Maybe we're looking at a softer landing, but then do you have anything that could counteract that? Is there something that we're missing? Well, I mean I would start off by saying the path to a hard landing is not normally obvious Normally, it's a process of thinking it'll be a soft landing first. I mean, it's not I Think most of the time people's base case is not a hard landing But you know, we do get a hard landing every every ten years or so. So there's something that we have to we have to think about With that in mind, you know, my my general expectation for 2023 remains unchanged. I think it's the year that will Rack both the bulls and the bears and you know, this is what we saw in 2019. This is what we saw in 2015 Yeah, you have your bear market years of 2014 2018 2022 and then you get these years that come after it That are incredibly choppy and we we're constantly chasing whatever the new narrative is, right? So for instance, like, you know, right now we're chasing the narrative that inflation is coming back down and That it'll be a soft landing, but who knows what narrative will be chasing later this year So I mean my general expectation is that, you know, this current run, I have no idea how long it's going to last I imagine it's going to go on until either inflation It'll keep it'll likely continue until you either see cracks in the US economy or You see any signs of inflation returning. So until that happens, I imagine you could still see sustained upside and risk assets But there are risks associated, I think with it and and one of those risks risks are Inflation coming back history shows us that inflation is not something that goes away easily And this is why Powell, you know refuses to declare victory on it Now he did mention, by the way, that they are seeing their first signs of disinflation and the minute he said the word disinflation the market just like spiked upwards But the problem is that He's you know, he's done his homework. He knows what happens when when central banks declare Victory on inflation too soon and what happens, right? It's it's inflation just comes back And then it becomes even harder to get rid of so Today we saw the unemployment rate come in at a secular low and it hasn't been this low. In fact, since I believe 1969 We saw I believe we saw the unemployment rate 3.4% Now what's interesting if you look at the S&P what the S&P did when the S when it got to 3.4% it rallied Over the next three months By about 9% or so 9 or 10% but after that three month period was over what happened it then drops 35-40% over the next year and a half And so we let's ask ourselves what would cause that I mean an unemployment rate at 3.4% It it would seem like you know, the US economy is strong Right and one of the things I've said many times is you know, you can find the signs of a recession in a lot of ways And in a lot of different places Except for the one place that matters and that's the labor market right the labor market is the only place that you really don't see a sign of a recession But within the business cycle the labor market is the last thing to move so we always have to remember that as well It's a it's a very much of a lagging indicator so One thing that I think that is the it's the main left-tail risk that we have to consider at this time is and this goes back to what pal said the Goods and service or services ex-housing core services ex-housing That inflation has remained relatively stickier than some of the other areas and so The unemployment rate at 3.4% I imagine is going to potentially renew some Some fears of rising inflation again Just because you still have a historically tight labor market at least going back for the last like 50 years or so so What I'm what I'm I guess the main left-tail risk is if you actually go look at the the Cleveland the Cleveland Fed now cast They're actually Forecasting that headline inflation is going to go up point six three percent Month over month at the next report for reference what it was last month was negative point one percent So they're forecasting it's going to go up point six percent point six three percent at the next CPI report I have no idea if that's accurate or not the Trading Economics website still says negative point one is what that? Yeah, you have the website up you can see the CPI for January twenty twenty three point six three percent That's month over month by the way Wow, that's the risk, you know and and so the risk here is if inflation were to come back at all And not and I'm not talking about new highs I I I do sincerely doubt that inflation is going to be going to new highs anytime soon But if we have that risk at all of it starting to come back up and and remaining somewhat stochastic not moving down in a linear fashion I could see the next the new narrative Chasing as well. Maybe inflation is not going down in a linear way And maybe the terminal rate has not been fully priced in and if you look at at the the CME group the website Now if you look at June now, they're saying the most likely scenario is the Fed funds rates going to be at five point two five percent meaning they're now expecting Two more twenty five basis point rate hikes So one of the things I've said I'll just continue to say I think 2023 is going to be the year where You know, we'll have rallies and and we'll also see those rallies get faded and and it'll probably take a year Or so is that happening before we see a rally that can really take us to new highs? That's my general expectation in 2022 what did I say? I mean, I just said cash was king constantly in 2022. That's I mean in the bear market cash is king You know, I mean it just is um In 2023, I think we see fate I you know, I think we see various phases where at some points you get really nice rallies that can take out prior highs Or at least local highs not all-time highs But you'll also see I think you'll also see those rallies faded as we as we chase whatever the most recent narrative is going to be And I think that a lot of those narratives are just going to be based around, you know, is inflation going down in a sustained way Is the terminal rate actually priced in and so on and so forth So, you know for me whether to specifically answer your question with regards to Bitcoin can this rally be sustained? I mean, I think it'll be sustained until until you see true deterioration in the US economy via labor market Or you see inflation go back up. We have another inflation report what in a week and a half So if inflation comes in cold then Bitcoin I think can keep going up I think inflation go comes in hot then then it'll it'll likely take a hit to risk assets But even if we even if we come back down We can go on another rally later this year, right? It's what 2015 was so 2015. We had two rallies That were both faded 2019. We had one massive rally that was faded So I think it'll probably be somewhere in between that and then hopefully by 2024 2025 We actually get into a rally that can take us to new highs Yeah, I gotta tell you like the things you guys just said it makes me realize like just run this this specific timeline and and just to get into your point been about, you know things just coming back This is what Jerome's trying to I mean he's really trying to avoid this happened in the 70s You know we had inflation and it went back down and then they're like, okay, cool. We're out of here We did our job Congratulations mission accomplished and then just back up because they stopped cutting rates So at some point they're like and this is what I think drum is trying to to get away from But if we can do that for this year if it's a hard if it's a soft landing or a hard landing It really does come down to the cycles that we're used to right so we're have it all starts with the having having all time I dip reset 1670 and the same thing Stinging things is happening right now at 2023. So if we go through a choppy year like we think we're gonna do it Bears get wrecked bulls get wrecked Unless you dollar-cost average and try to take some profits like I've been doing hey Then maybe 2024 25 96 will work itself out But that it looks like it could but it's anybody's guess am I off there? No, I mean normally you have a recovery year after a bear market year Right you just kind of go sideways for a while and I mean right now. It's up only right But we'll see I mean I don't think it's gonna be up only all year But you know, I mean, it's it's nice. It's nice having some some some Bitcoin right now You know, that's the only thing I much really have so Missing out on the octcoin gains of course, but yeah, I mean I'm I think Bitcoin will will Likely come out stronger at the end of this year after a sort of weathered weathered storm Well, that would that would leave me the mind that the next question we talked about which was this which is well If we're gonna do that, what's the what's the challenges we have to overcome in crypto and this could be anything? I mean this could be are we looking at legislation? Are we looking at the sentiments? Are we looking at the macro? We look the macro fact is pretty pretty hard, but Since been since you're up there, I'll start with you and then and guy. I'll have the last word on this one Yeah, I don't really so the sentiment is something I think we easily overcome because the sentiment is just given by Price action, right? Like everyone gets excited when the price goes up Everyone that's when the price goes down. So if yeah, I mean look if the price were to just kind of shot between 20 to 30k For the next six months or something you'll see Sentiment get better and better. I think I mean it's just a matter of like not watching the price drop every other month, you know I think probably the biggest things would be to see the yeah I mean to see the macro look a little bit better and you know, you mentioned earlier We have the inversion of the yield curve and that's one of the things I've spoken about before as well But one of the things about the inversion of the yield curve that it tells us is at least historically is that upon the inversion We're not in a recession, right? So so you know when you're when you see the inversion You're usually not in a recession After right on inverts that you get into one and you actually go. How do you get into one? Well, the Fed has to aggressively car rates. Why would they aggressively car rates? Well because they broke something in the economy And they are you know, they're forced to so Yeah, I mean, I think that the macro is something that we could you know Seeing inflation much lower would it would really help I mean if you can get inflation if the Fed can be Successful in their goals of getting inflation back down to say 2% I think that would be very bullish for crypto because it doesn't mean it means the Fed doesn't have to be nearly as hawkish on their policy They don't have to have interest rates quite as high. They don't have to you know, have QT is as as aggressive So I do think that would be a very positive thing for crypto And then I you know, I think some regulation would be good But you know, I don't know like these things always seem like they're gonna happen Especially after major fallouts like FTX and that's but I mean, we also had major fallouts in 2018 as well and nothing really changed, you know So, you know, it makes me wonder you know, are we just gonna kick the can down the road again Without any, you know, we had that that that press conference recently and it was just blitz, you know It's Lotto or whatever. It's like, what is that? That no one has even heard of Yeah, I think I think The sentiment returning will will sort of just come back as long as the price can can sort of hold itself at higher levels Probably the improving macro would be the would be the best thing the and then the other thing is, you know, the stock market You know, you would like to see the stock market really be more Confirming of a new of a new sustainable market to go up to new all-time highs and I think there are some people that Are already convinced of that. I think I would require a bit more convincing Especially with earnings reports coming out is as poorly as they have recently Counterpoint to that is that the stock market normally bottoms before earnings bottom So I guess it depends on how do we think earnings are up so we got to get are they gonna continue to For the next like 12 months or is this as bad as it gets because again the market is ultimately forward-looking so Yeah, I would say it's a combination of a lot of these things. I mean, I think you need to see the macro improves some I mean, by the way, the macro wasn't that great in 2019 either and And by 2020 we had a recession By the way in 2019 the yield curve inverted I don't know if you guys remember the old curve inverted in 2019. We had a very brief recession in 2020 Of course, I'm not saying that it did that recession per se but we did have a recession and And then we were off to the races when the Fed went back to aggressive QE and printing trillions of dollars So I think we're in a in a somewhat similar scenario As 2019 but I I would say it's a bit a bit worse just because inflation is also Somewhat persistent and that wasn't an issue we had back then But you know you if you roll the clock forward another year year and a half I think I think things are gonna look a lot better and and And that'll also be nice because it'll it'll correspond to the halving and that sort of stuff So just a bit more time is probably what we need to To see sentiment really turn around. Yeah, a bit more time for me to fill my bags. Yeah, so So so guy if it would end that that's it was interesting what we talked about before guy The the gentleman you talked to about the the yield curves how the one of Bennett said well Maybe this time is different So I mean is this time different and and so what is that? Not of that's different, but what's the biggest challenge then you know to get over this hump right now? Just like what I what I have been I? Think I'm gonna I want to focus about on a couple of other challenges I think crypto is facing at the moment and I think it kind of for me It's kind of swinging. It's like a pendulum swinging between these two points. I think on the one hand Crypto has got this big problem Around regulation at the moment or should I should I say more accurately around regulatory clarity? Right, and then I think at the other side at the other swing of the pendulum I think there's this issue of of education of how well people understand crypto What it is how it works and crucially I guess how they perceive it as well And I think you've got so I think that's been kind of thrown into relief in the last in the last few days Because we've had Charlie Munger come out as reliably as he always does you know he sort of emerges like a tortoise every few months and sort of Croaks something about Bitcoin being the root of all evil and then goes back into a shell or something But anyhow, so yeah, I think crypto has this true a two-fold problem and I think it's important to draw a distinction between Regulation and regulatory clarity and this is something I was on I was on a panel here in Dubai a couple of nights ago and one of my fellow panelists made this point very eloquently said you know We talk about regulation for crypto and how important it is The traditional finance had plenty has plans had regulation for decades And it didn't stop the likes of Bernie Madoff. Did it? It didn't stop the likes of wire card and all these others so I think reg but what's more important I think is is regulatory clarity in order for the industry to grow in order for Investment to come in especially from institutions who are on the sidelines and and I don't know if you saw that report That's just just come out today or or yesterday about how Institutional investment in crypto is way down. It was way down in January My point is that I think crypto needs to see some sort of Regulatory clarity at least for these for these bigger players Especially to be interested to invest in and help fund future development of the space so I think that's that's one thing that I think crypto needs and I'm not sure it's gonna really get it this year. Maybe in Europe with Micah Which is obviously being pushed back to April. I'm not very confident of seeing anything much in the US The UK is kind of making steps towards that However, but at the other end of the at the other swing of the pendulum We've also got this idea about about education about how people perceive crypto and understand it And I think in a way, this might actually be more important Something that we need to focus on more and I don't just say that as someone who's in the crypto education business But I think you know going back to what Charlie Munger said, you know There's the crypto still really has this image problem and people are still so skeptical of it And I don't think even with regulatory clarity. I don't think we could expect big institutional inflows You know smart money if you want to call it that I don't think we could expect that to come and support an industry That doesn't have anyone using it. So I kind of feel maybe we should be focusing on Trying to on trying to make people understand what crypto can give them the benefits of crypto why it's why it's not all one giant Ponzi scheme and Because then we can build an ecosystem then we can build an ecosystem of Of things that people actually use and again This is something I think is a generally positive story that went unreported last year About how crypto adoption across the world especially in in countries that are you know That are seeing their national currencies devolved the likes of them Turkey Egypt Argentina all these all these sorts of places But I think we need an ecosystem that regulatory clarity can then come in Shine some light on and let more investment come in does that does that make any sense? I'm 100 them. This is what I've been I've been harping on before I'm glad I'm glad you said it more eloquently than I could because when I talk about regulation everybody's like We hate Rob. He's talking about regulation. He's one of them and everything's like an FBI agent or something like that No, I think we need just just some clarity and I think I see this is the thing This is why I like having both you on because I always learn something about what's happening because for the institutional investors I was unaware of this report that came out that says that everything's slowing down because before From Coinbase when they put out their quarterly letters, they would talk about how you know institutional investment is up It's up and it would be Way higher than just then just retail. So if we're taking a look at institutional sliding down That's something to be concerned about but it didn't seem like it affects the markets too much because right now We're actually had a nice little rally. So was that more retail than what it was maybe I mean, we're only a trillion something market cap. It's not like we are like way ahead So what you said guy makes total sense. It's not regulation shutting down Bitcoin and Ethereum not that they can anyhow But it's about giving us clarity. What's a commodity? What is a security? What is a currency? Just get a get that right and then talk to the centralized players the exchanges and make them not commingle funds because I hate putting my funds into an exchange and then they go and buy a condo in The in the Bahamas for their mom and dad. That's just something I just not big on. I don't know if I'm wrong there So guy it makes total sense good Yeah, it's Yeah, it and and again coming back to something else. I've talked about before I think you know this idea of industry standards that the Eric Voorhees is kind of championed in the wake of FTX and all that you know an industry that an industry that kind of self-regulates in a way that doesn't that doesn't put up with with Entities who are you know not doing it not doing it the right way because again and it goes back to this idea regulatory clarity like Regulations will not stop will not stop scammers. They will not stop, you know bad actors or anything like that but at least Clarity will let proper companies flourish and I think it was I think we were talking about this Maybe it was last week when we were kind of talking about securities designations as well And I think it was Ben Was it you Ben who just sort of said well, yeah Like okay, if if something is designated as security then that's that could be a disadvantage It could it could hinder that sort of project, but they'll work it out You know that they'll they'll figure something out, but they need to know one way or another It can't just be sort of well. It might be a security. It might not be you'll find out in due course Yeah, you'll find out. We'll let you know that type of thing. Okay All right, so move on the next one a good answer is everybody so Failing to plan is planning to fail. This is what I've talked about in the past, but It might sound odd, but I think the parabolic load on it. It'll sneak up on all of us It's for some of us not all of us. So what's your profit taking plan on crypto? And this is moving into like the 2024 maybe 2025 season Or are you going to diamond hands forever and never sell at anything guy? I'll start with you because we just we just stopped off The classic the classic Bitcoin maxi trope of diamond hands and living on a mattress in a complete and in an otherwise completely unfurnished room No, I like my creature comforts a bit too much for that Yeah, yeah, I think this I mean I want to learn I want to learn lessons of past bull markets We you know in this next bull market because I've not always been great at taking profits I have taken profits in the past. I'm it's something that I'm getting better at But I am I am planning to take some profits. How I'm gonna do that exactly. I'm not sure I don't know whether I don't know whether I'm gonna be DCAing out rather than DCAing in I'm not sure whether I'm gonna set a level yet That I'm that I'd be looking to exit at but one thing that did strike me when I was when I was thinking about this earlier was I want to you know, if here I am here I am in Dubai if I find you know during the next bull run if I see a nice house for sale and the and the estate agent or the owner is willing to take payment in crypto then I'm gonna I'm gonna buy it because because I Think I think it can fall between these these two poles like this idea of hodling hodling on forever I don't really agree with obviously. I don't want to sell everything I want to keep a nice nest egg of crypto for the future. I you know, there's I'm never gonna I'm never gonna sell out of crypto completely But I must say I'm warming more and more to the idea of using Bitcoin for what it was designed to be used for as a as a medium of exchange Right and and swapping that out for another asset like a roof over my head Which would be which would be great and I I like this idea and I hope we see more of it I hope we see people actually using it because I think if we get stuck into this HODL mentality and everyone just just clutching on to what they've got for dear life then Then it's just it's just speculation. It has no it has no use beyond that I think it's it's kind of up to us really to to use this to use this stuff for what for what it was Intended. That's a good point actually. Yeah, so okay Yeah, it's a good point because that's if we if for those at home Sorry, I'm getting Ben's cough. I think for those at home. If you haven't read the Bitcoin white paper of Sintoshinakamoto It's only nine pages. It's very fast and you can take a look at it and all the people that talk about well It's this or it's that that's not what it was designed for I mean, we can say what it is now, but it is for a medium of exchange a peer-to-peer exchange And I'll just leave it at that but then what do you got as far as like getting into you know Moving into 2024 and profiting because you're gonna start dollar-cost averaging, you know later on Even more so so how do you take some profits moving out? Well, I would first say Yeah, never let a good bubble go to waste at first of all, I mean, you know, look We don't know what happens in 2023 just like in 2019. We actually had a parabolic run the 14k You know that was something that I feel like shouldn't have been you know, you know, you don't let it go to waste So, you know, there's still a chance that Bitcoin sees a sustained move higher this year for all we know You know, I mean, and I pointed to some of the risks. I mean, there are risks out there if inflation comes back If you know if the terminal right rate is not priced in but Until until you see a material change and one of those two things, you know Bitcoin of course still has it reserves the right to to go as high as it wants to go I mean if look if medic can go up to x and and Netflix can go up to x and why can't Bitcoin, you know So I think about So I would say it doesn't have to be 2024 It could be even this year depends on on just how heated the rally gets I would say I would just DCA out according to the risk levels that I use I mean, I have various risk levels and stuff that I I use. That's what I used in 2019 That's what I used in early 2021 Unfortunately, the second move in 2021 Was not picked up as easily from that stuff because it was sort of just like the bounce to the same levels Rather than going to any sustained new highs. So it didn't work out as well But the first rally in 2021 just sort of slowly DCAing out Worked out quite well because then we we ended up dropping 50% in the summer We had that summer low and you know, everything dropped like at least 50 or somewhere around 50% or so So I would say I would just DCA out according to the risk levels But the other side of the thing is you can't sell what you don't have right so I don't really have much. I mean, I do have some altcoins, but not not much. I mean, it's it's just sort of like relics of You know things that I had from years and years ago You know stuff that's being staked and whatnot I've I've mainly just bought bitcoin for the last Six months seven months. I haven't really bought anything else in crypto So, you know, I I could always sell some bitcoin if it moves higher, but right as I said before I mean, I you can't sell what you don't have. So I know you I know rob has been Micro DCAing the the altcoins. So, um, you know, you'll be able to sell those potentially. I won't because I don't have any But yeah, so, I mean, I you know bitcoin is is if it if it if it gets into one of these more sustained rallies Even in 2023 like that's not discounted completely. I mean it could happen Um Then I would you know, I would I would take profit It's just like, you know, just like in 2019 when when we rallied up 4x in in like for three or four months So It's just something to consider. You know, you never know when the bubble is going to come you never know and Even in 2021 or even in 2020 It's not like we knew that it was going to go from 3k to 64k, you know, I mean that was not It was not a common theory not not not that quickly Anyway, I think a lot of people thought it was going to get to 64k, but just not not as soon as it did um And we also I think a lot of people didn't think that that was going to be the top and it ended up more or less Just being the top So again, don't ever let a good bubble go to waste if you see a rally this year You have to take advantage of it And And if it and if we just come back down and we spend another six months at lower prices Then you just get into the market again, right? And you you slowly you just wait for the for the bubble to come Um, and I would say another thing too. It's okay to be bearish On something and still accumulate it, right? I mean that's what it's essentially what I did for all 2019 and even 2020 I was like, all right. Well, every you know, everything seems like it sucks, right? The economy seems awful Uh, but you know, if there is another bubble, then I want to be a part of it Okay, now if if if crypto goes up again, I want to be a part of it So, um, I I still I I still think the same way today except right now I am my crypto portfolio is just mostly mostly bitcoin By the way, it was also mostly bitcoin in 2019 too when when we had essentially a bitcoin only rally to 14k I mean the other altcoin the altcoin market did okay But I mean a lot of the actually a lot of the altcoin market ended 2019 Lower than where they started Uh, whereas bitcoin ended up ended at about 2x higher than where it started Uh, so that's something something to think about as well. So yeah, I mean just dca out according to the risk levels just like you might dcan when the market is is turning lower and um And ignore the noise Yeah, exactly. And I would so I gotta agree with you on these ones. All those points are good. There's uh, I like this I can't I got in trouble last time from your from your uh From your users when I showed this so I'll show it again now. I'm just kidding This is uh time and risk bands and there's another there's another chart Which shows just when bitcoin is in these risk bands and when he when he go to like these risks these high risk areas 18 days this is when things are like Pretty much a blow off top If you can take a look at this and of course this is on another another screen You can kind of just tell like just how risky things are getting and then for me like I use I use this Uh on my website Uh, this is a shameless plug the anti-descripto 100 for it This was my exit strategy that I used last time what I'm going to use this time my cycle tops I'm using from looking to bitcoin bicycle top and up l again using bends time and risk And then bottom callers and there's this video there. So for me. It's just I used idola cost average in last time. I laddered out and I Just like like what guy I was talking about I got a little bit too greedy And I didn't sell when I was supposed to sell I sold probably 50 percent of the things I was supposed to sell and I screwed up on the other 30 and this time I'm just gonna I have a plan in place. I'm gonna stick to that plan and that be damned I'm never gonna hit the top and I'm never gonna hit the bottom I think that's just as I'm just gonna try to get around if I can get 70 percent or 80 percent. I'm very happy That's about it. Hey rob. I on your website. I saw that you had the uh the pie cycle top indicator on there Is that right? So that's an interesting it kind of reminds me of something that the guy was saying earlier So that indicator Basically nailed the first time right so I think it I think it signaled within one or two days But it's also an instance where the person who created it said it wasn't going to you know They basically walked it back and said it wasn't going to Going to actually predict the top and I mean in the end that that was uh It was right because we ended up going to 69 k right Yeah, but we also had a really big pullback It kind of reminds me of of the person who invented the yield curve saying all right Well, it's worked for the last eight times, but it's not going to work this time You know kind of thing like where you you you can kind of trick yourself into thinking like this is the one time It's not going to work just because it feels like it's not going to Um, so we'll see. I mean in the end we'll see if the yield curve is uh is a predictor or not so far It's it's always predict. It's I mean the the inversion of the three month in the tenure I was like I think a hundred percent track record On yeah on predicting it so yeah, and I that's what I when I got into it And I think we're all on the same page when I get into it I was like there's no way it's going to repeat again, and I'll be darned if it didn't repeat again And it repeated almost perfectly. I mean this one's a little bit different We had a couple of a double top, but I mean it still worked out Yeah, no, I mean I think the piecicle. I think it's a great indicator I mean it it got it within within three days, which is what you know, I think it was designed to do Uh But again, I think that you know when you create an indicator And and it gets close to like triggering you often second guess the validity of the indicator because now you're like, all right Well, maybe I underestimated what it could do or over, you know something like that I mean, I think we all have the tendency to do that like when you're when you're thinking rationally Um, you can kind of say all right. Well, it'll it'll go up to these levels But once you get to those levels everyone thinks it's going to go higher This is perfect. This is a perfect segue So just like what we were talking about we kind of made guy talked about you know We shouldn't have you know, he should have sold more Then you talked about some things This is the next one. What kind of insights can you give in the because the class of 2021? To me is kind of like the class of 2017 2018 without the monstrous centralized exchange screw ups So what kind of insights can you give these guys because it's kind of hard Just to watch your value go from like bitcoin's going to a million dollars Everybody says it is to like what the heck just happened now. I'm down, you know, 70% that's not right Then what do you I'll start with Ben and then guy will have the last word I mean, I would just say time is the only secret to the crypt ever. It's really it's nothing more complicated than that Um And I I say this is somewhat being self-aware of what I what I'm saying myself like, you know I I would constantly outline the risks involved uh, like in you know resurgent inflation or um, you know under underestimating the terminal rate for the Fed But the one thing I I've seen many many times and you know Witnessed it myself many many times is that you know bears can sound smart or a little you know pessimists can sound smart Which you know equates to more bears But the rules and the ultimate ones who usually get rich it's because they you know, they just remain optimistic. So You know, I would say don't don't mistake Understanding what the risks are or you know weighing what the risks are In terms of like, you know, whether you should have a position or not, you know Because at the end of the day, I think that time is is sort of what what bails the crypt ever sound It's the it's the recurring cyclical behavior of of emotions You know that sort of that depression that fear stage and that height euphoria stage And right now, I mean my my best interpretation right I could be wrong. I've been wrong about a lot of things So Let's not let's not forget that but um, my best interpretation is that we're just in a in a phase right now where The market's going to chop around for the better part of the year going to go up for a while going to go down for a while And it'll make people exhausted by the end of the year and um And then you know by the time you get out into into new all-time highs It a lot of people will forget a lot of the lessons that they learned in the 2022 bear market, right? They just simply forget those lessons and they get drawn into the hype again thinking it's only ever going to go up forever So I would say, you know, don't forget the lessons that you've learned If your portfolio is down Usually time helps cure that as long as it's not just a degen point portfolio filled with micro you know full micro caps If it's the blue chips like bitcoin and ethereum Which I mean to be completely honest I'm underweight ethereum just because I think bitcoin's gonna outperform it right now, but if it's if it's the blue chips history shows us that uh, you know That eventually you should you should be seeing better times. It's just a matter of time It could take another two two years could take another three years, but um Lots of history shows us so I would say just uh, try to be patient wait and um And yeah, remember that the optimists tend to get rich and the pessimists Sounds work. I did I did like that phrase what you said last time. I'm like, oh good. I'm not a moron. All right. So guys Same question for you I want to pick up on on on what ben was saying About time because I think that's I think that's a hundred percent correct And I think one of the big big problems in crypto at the moment Which let's face it has been around for a long time is that the industry is full of so many people Who are you know, who are the kind who market crypto as one big get rich quick scheme and the emphasis is on Is on quick, you know, it's like you got to get in now You know, it's like, hey, I made x million overnight doing this that the other And you know, we all know we all know who those people are and and how they operate and it's it's a huge problem Because it's it gives it gives people new to the space this impression that you don't have time you have to act right now And that is that that isn't true And two things I'll say about those people is a lot of them aren't nearly as wealthy as they make out. I know that for a fact And I know it's because guy meets them. All right and um You know, their their whole business model is kind of predicated on this idea of you know of other people's fomo get in now Get in now, you know, don't um use my buy bit link, etc. etc So I think it's about it's about filtering out all that noise Which is what it is and and consider the fact that really the the wealthiest people out there the people who are Really rich who have actual money in the bank These guys have been on the whole playing the game for a long long time and they know it's a long game And they know that get rich quick is is not something that that generally happens. Um That's not to say it's it's never happened before that's not to say it hasn't happened in crypto because it has but People shouldn't look at it like that crypto Crypto investing is a long game, too Okay, the root you can get bigger rewards perhaps over a shorter time frame than you would in more traditional forms of investing But yeah going back to what to what ben said if you use time is on your side If you stay in there if you stay the course then you can do well Yeah, I couldn't say it better perfect perfect way Well guys, I can't agree even more. I mean in in 2017 I had that opportunity to To cash out I didn't 2018 I let it all go down I had two choices like either cash out and be like well I'll just take that 70 loss or just dollar cost average and it goes off and The people who stick around like I've always talked about just like the military Just show up with the right uniform when you usually get promoted. That's the same thing that happens with business That's the same thing what happens in life and getting better any kind of skill And it's the same thing that happens with with any kind of investment. I feel so if you're stuck right now in 2021 We've all been there and we've all Experienced the same pain just stick around we'll see you in 2024 and we'll all have or 2025 We'll have a good laugh at the the things that are happening And then we'll give our advice to the people who come in 2025 Who get in from the people that guy just talked about you got to get in right now because this is it This is the only thing because it's great for clicks And then they are the bag holders Anyhow that's that will conclude today's episode gents. I want to say thanks for stopping by now We'll get into q&a. We'll do this kind of show I try to keep this short But I mean unfortunately there's great answers. So I had to let it all play out So this is what we'll do a q&a real quick and see what people got Let's see First of all free church presses short bitcoin Yeah, I'm not a big short person but uh, okay Dermott says that's a good one dcn dcan or dca out for 2023. I'm gonna say You can do both if you really want to guy ben you want to take this one? I mean I My guess is uh, I mean we're in If you look at a lot of the metrics were fairly undervalued It doesn't it doesn't mean that we can't go doesn't mean that we can't go lower, right? You know, we could easily have pullbacks and go lower But in terms of a long-term investor, I would say this is the year to slowly get into the market Uh, not to get out, right Um, the only the only way I would say to dca out for me is if as if we get a true parabolic rally You know, and this is something to to be completely honest You know, I was asked about this back in uh in the summer of 2022 when bitcoin was at 25k and someone asked me You know, do you think I should sell bitcoin? And back then I was very convinced that we were going to capitulate in november, right? We talked about this for a long time that we were going to go lower and even then I said no I don't think it's worth selling Even if we even though I think we're going to go lower. It's probably not worth selling because even if we do You know, we're probably just going to bounce right back eventually and it's just not worth the hassle of taxes not worth all this hassle and um, and also you have to hedge yourself of me being wrong If bitcoin rallies to like 35k or 40k or something like Okay, then maybe maybe I would start to get interested in in scaling somehow But as long as we're as long as we're at these levels I yeah, I just don't really I I'm not as I'm not as interested in in scaling out I'd much more prefer to just slowly scale in um, and honestly hope the price goes lower just because I'd I'd like to You know Get getting bigger bags before the next happening, right? Yeah, I would say it's generally going to be a year to scale in rather than scale out And the only way I would change my mind on that is if bitcoin sees a parabolic rally Perfect guy. What do you got dc and dca out? I don't really have have an awful lot to add to what to what to what ben said. Yeah I think this is a year to to slowly accumulate. I think this is a year to to to cautiously to cautiously move in Um, and yeah, save yourself the dca is is such a good strategy Especially if this is something you're relatively new to you know, take the take the stress out of it Don't try and don't try and time the market. Don't try and second guess the Fed anything like that in nice and slow nice and regular And yeah going back going back to what ben said about time that will that will play out well for you in the future Yeah, and I'm just gonna say right here. I've been micro dcaing Uh bitcoin and alts. I'm gonna start to increase that because I think this is This is the year if we're looking at the four-year cycles. This is you know the halving 2020 all-time high 2021 2022 is the big dip and I think this year is the reset and that's where if you and we've taken a look at different alts and bitcoin if you When you start to dca in or ladder in on the reset years you really set yourself up for success years down the road So i'm gonna start doing that, but oh Rob, I would clarify my response when I was I was specifically referring to to bitcoin Okay, gotcha So yeah, we'll say that bitcoin and then just to just to lay it out One more thing and that is this I did take some profits And I had talked about this on my on my channel before and what it came down to this Because what I did was I have a problem and that problem is getting too Too entrenched in not selling. So like I said, I've been buying bitcoin for every every day at 40 bucks I did a very simple thing. I bought it at 16 7 all the way down here So for the last month or so or whatever it was I spent a thousand bucks and then when it went up to This is on January 9th when I went to 21,000 I sold because it was up 23. I made a small amount of profits But just so everybody knows On the next day. I'm still buying and buying and buying and buying. So even when I sell I'm still buying As days go on this right here Could of course will probably turn into I don't know 150 thousand dollars But I just wanted to do it just to give my muscle memory in so I actually Get a little bit of profits from the sidelines And if it doesn't come down it doesn't come down But that's just what I have and that's what I try to do as far as diversify. So Now I'm not going to be doing any kind of profits Just going to be dca'ing Then a little bit more. So all right for that question And then can I say rob I love the I love that idea of of tracking all that data yourself. I think Yeah, I think this is this is something I I found works actually quite well in in kind of life generally, you know If you've got a goal Whatever it may be investing or or losing weight or doing more exercise or something It can really help if you if you just actually take the time to track it all because then you can measure your progress And and and you get a much better sense of where you are It's it's something that's worked for me really well over the last few years Yeah Well, you know what's going to suck is when I track that and I go and then bitcoin goes 100k and I look back and go Oh my god I could have made so much more But I'll never I'll never time it and I'll just I just want to just take a little bit of profit So I have some cash on the side and then I put it into other things Real estate being one of them not that 239 bucks going to be the end all be all but as time goes on I really ramp up I think we'll be okay and that would answer Aristotle's question. How do you accumulate and be bearish? It's very simple Just like Ben talked about and guy talked about no one really knows so I can accumulate and go I don't know where things are going. I actually hope things go down Because then I can buy it at a lower price because I know as time was on will be good and then one more question Ah Philip Why are the whales selling are the whales selling? I don't know anybody want to take this one? I'd have to lick it. I think some whales where I think some of the larger wallet sizes were going down some the if you look at um If you look at at least the the stock market Retail trades have made up a larger portion Of of the trading activity Then they did at the hype in 2021. They're making up a larger portion today So essentially what what's going is is retail is is sort of leading the rally and institutions don't quite believe it um Well, look, I mean sometimes retail is right. I mean like that's the truth There are times where retail is right and institutions chase it later hedge fund managers Basically chase because they're you know, they're worried about getting left behind. They're humans too, but yeah, I mean retail is um Certainly, I think taking the lead on on this rally more so than than um, some of the larger players Yeah, and guy Well, I mean that just didn't we don't No, no, yeah, I mean, I guess I guess whales, you know, whales, um, quite likely have You know have large debts elsewhere interest rates going up They've got they've got commitments to meet them. So maybe they're maybe they're selling to uh to cope with their debt repayments That would be that would be my best guess Yeah, there's only there's only a couple markets that are liquid 365 24 765 4x and crypto so people got to get those get those profits out two things, um Guy that report that you talked about for the institutions slowing down You guys gonna do a video on that one over on clips or main channel? Quite possibly. Yeah. Yeah. It's um, it's it's on a coin desk for anyone who wants to have a look at the At the article itself, but um, yeah, I think we I think we might well cover that Yeah, I'll talk to the I'll talk to the team about it and see if we can get it on the schedule for next week Sure, that's the and then the last question is thursdays are fridays moving forward Usually we do thursdays fridays. Guy had a commitment over at the metaverse And yeah, it was my fault I think there was uh, I think I made a mistake last week because I think I said we do it every fridays and then people were confused Ah, which is funny that I said that and then it ended up being friday It's like you knew something we didn't bend you are manifesting things ben you're Generally generally thursdays Yeah, generally thursday everybody and that's it but so look we've gone a full hour. These guys are busy ben's got 10 kids running around and guys got everything to go meet with so that is it for today So gentlemen, thanks for coming on again You can find guy from coin bureau and coin bureau clips and ben from the cryptiverse also His website is a link in description for that But that's it. So I think next week we are on guys channel, right? You are. Yeah, we are all right So we'll see you guys on thursday next week See you then guys. Thanks everybody. Bye. Thank you