 We have got another condensed timeline for daily fantasy baseball for today because lock for today's slate is at 110 p.m Eastern over on faddle six game slates actually a pretty decent slate But it does lock earlier so be listening to this in the afternoon. We'll see you later talk to you For the next slate, but 110 p.m. Eastern is locked for the six games late We're trying to grind through things pretty fast And hopefully put you in a good spot to win some money on your Thursday welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the faddle podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm You're to break down a Thursday's six game main slate with once again lock at 110 p.m Eastern for today before you get into The slate breakdown for today a quick scheduling announcement I will be out from tomorrow through May 4th for my honeymoon just two years after the wedding, you know as a Typical a very typical timeline for that but I'll be gone during that time There will still be a solo shot on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed in that time Tom Vecchio Austin Swain We combine into cover for me in that time find them on Twitter check them out there and Subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed to get the podcast as it goes up if you watch on YouTube We will not have shows on YouTube for that time. We'll be back once I get back in the first week of May So no YouTube in that time, but we will still have the audio version on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed So I'll add that there all of our NASCAR podcast this week up today for Talladega And then Austin will take on next week's podcast from NASCAR to so again all the same spot in the same podcast feed hit subscribe there and Thank them for their their assistance of me While I am away as far as this slate goes wins in Detroit are almost out to left at 16 miles per hour I say almost because it's kind of crosswind. I would give a tentative bump up to hitters for the Tigers and Yankees in New York for The Mets and Giants wins are out to center at 15 miles per hour would bump up bats a bit there pretty much same thing in Cleveland For the Guardians and White Sox wins are out to center at 16 miles per hour So slight bump to batters there in Kansas City for the Royals and twins wins are in from right field at 12 miles per hour But it's also the warmest game on the slate So I'd keep that one pretty neutral in terms of batters for today Finally rain is possible in Oakland for the Orioles in the A's that game should be able to play But it is dicier than others. So Keep tabs on that one for sure We'll dive in the pitching preview in just one second But first the 2022 NBA playoffs are underway and Fandall Mountain Dew have teamed up to add another layer of excitement to the first round Matchups introducing the Mountain Dew NBA free play a daily fantasy basketball contest running through tonight Tonight is a final one, but it's entirely free to edge All you have to do is construct your best nine-player roster while staying under the designated Sour cap and follow along as the games unfold to compete for your share of $3,000 in cash prizes plus as an added bonus if any of your lineups on the week have the most made three pointers after tonight's games You'll win an additional share of $3,000 in bonus cash and NBA sway Tonight's games will be tipping off soon So head to Fandall comm slash league slash Mountain dash do dash playoffs to submit your lineup and get in on the action now for more details It's a fandall.com or download the Fandall fantasy app eligibility restrictions apply pitching preview for this Thursday Main Slay Dylan cease is the highest salary pitcher on Fandall checking in at $10,300 Carlos Carrasco is 10-1 Kevin Gosman $9900 Anthony D. Slifani is that please back and Joe Ryan are the others at $8,000 or higher And that's a good good number of pitchers for a 12 games later a decent number of guys You can feel pretty good about but I think the one guy Who comes the closest to being the full package is Dylan cease and cease will be at the top of my list for sure Cease is facing the Guardians. They're not a super threatening offense. They're okay They got a 101 WRC plus against righties. This is based on their current active roster since the start of last year They have a 22% strikeout rate against righties Neither of those numbers are bad, but neither should scare us off either Cease himself is sick. He has been throwing more sliders this year and it's up to a 42% usage on the pitch according to baseball savon that's up from 31% last year and that's a good thing for us may strike out perspective because See set a 50% whiff rate on that slider last year So if he's gonna throw it more we should expect gains in the strikeout category And he doesn't really need those but he has gotten them his strikeout rate in two starts is 39% It's probably not gonna stick that high But if we look at the past 15 starts a larger sample with that slider usage increasing a bit during last year He said a 35% strikeout rate and 15 starts is a really big sample for a pitcher And he's also been elite within that not just the strikeouts the one lingering issue for Cease is walks He's at a 12% walk rate this year He said 10% in the aforementioned 15 game sample that drives a pitch count gets guys on base And it keeps sees from going super deep in games I've got him projected for 97 pitches for today Which think I think should give him some good amount of wiggle room to maybe walk some guys and still be okay So to me Cease is the top guy in the slate. I'm very willing to build around him Salaries at hitter not super restrictive. So to me Dylan Cease is the top guy and someone I want to build her up I'm gonna put Joe Ryan in the second slot and Ryan is Technically our value play for the day because he is 82 But a couple of things allow me to put Ryan number two above Kevin Gosman Kevin Gosman will be third We'll talk about him in a bit, but Ryan is a better match-up than Gosman Gosman gets the Red Sox Ryan gets the Royals and the Royals are a lower strikeout team But they have just a 91 at WRC plus against righties with a 152 ISO And both of those are bottom two marks across the six-game slate plus Ryan looks awesome to start this year His velocity is up a bit He is also throwing more sliders and the usage on that sliders up to 32% Which is double what it was last year shocker the twins are encouraging a guy to throw more sliders They love sliders. So they're kind of leaning into their their stereotype here If we look at Ryan's whiff rate on that slider, it's 43% That's really good. So more sliders a lot of whiffs. That's a good thing If we expand the sample for Ryan to his full seven big league starts He has a 29% strikeout rated at 3.43 skill interactive era. He does that while suppressing hard contact He's let up a 30% hard hit rate in that time, which is actually the best mark for anyone on this slate The slight concern for me with Ryan his pitch count because he's gone 70 and 82 pitches in his first two starts And they did keep him pretty short last year could have been due to you know, he missed all of 2020 due to COVID stuff He was on the Olympic team. So there were some high high stress pitches before then but I'm expecting him to get more leash here But now the Zinni has been worked back up if we see Ryan get to 90 pitches for tonight Which is where I've got him projected He will be in a good spot or today I should say so and I think there's a good shot He gets there because again, I think last year was kind of an independent thing for sure So I'm willing to put Ryan second right behind Cease and right ahead of Kevin Gosman Let's talk about Gosman here in the third slots. I think that he deserves to be there despite the fact There's a lot of risk. I have to go in knowing that Gosman is risky and if you want to use him same thing just know that there is risky there is risk I do like Gosman despite that risk against the Red Sox It is a tough matchup, but it's also not an impossible one from a strikeout perspective The Red Sox active roster has a 204 ISO against righties. They're very good, but they also can't strike out They got a 24% strikeout rate against righties since the start of last year That's actually tied for the third highest mark on this slate. That means that Gosman Has a path to a ceiling here. He does obviously provide that ceiling himself too because he's very good We've seen Gosman throw again more sliders this year more sliders always makes me happy He's about a 15% uses right on the pitch not as many as Cease and Ryan But it's up from where it was and we saw Gosman start to do that in his final two starts last year If we look at his fine or past four starts his strikeout rate is 32% with almost no walks in that profile His skill interactive era is 2.34 which would be the best mark on this late if it were his full sample Gosman has still struggled with that at ball data And that's not a surprise because splitters and sliders can lead up a lot of hard contact Which is another reason why there is risk here But I like it regardless because yeah, Gosman could get rocked or he could be the highest scoring starter on the slate He had nine strikeouts in New York against the Yankees last time out So I am fully willing to use him here You just have to be okay With the risk going in and doing so and I would rank osman third behind Cease and Ryan I think there's upside there So I'm going to use him But I also understand if you want to take a more risk averse approach and avoid him due to the tough matchup Let's talk about some stacks for today the white Soxion face and Zach Plisac and Plisac is one of those guys who typically At least at times does that perform his peripherals. He's doing it early this year I'm not fully convinced he can keep that up though And I'm willing to stack the white Sox against him in this spot Plisac last year had a 4.73 skill interactive ERA His ERA was 4.67 and there were times back in 2020 I believe where he was like outperforming by more so I take note of that when guys outperform what their skill interactive ERA Says their results should be I can't explain why it happens But like you do take note of it for sure typically when that happens when you see that gap It's because players have great bad at ball data Cease didn't or sorry a Plisac didn't last year He allowed a 43 percent hard hit rate with a 38 percent fly ball right that's same thing this year Where he is allowed a 50 percent hard hit rate through two starts with a 44 percent fly ball rate The strikeouts are low too, which is what we saw last year and plus the velocity is concerning For Plisac his average fastball velocity is 91.2 miles per hour this year It was 93 last year that could be due to cold weather and that's why I'm not willing to like fully like buying the go Okay, there's something a major issue like talk about that Robbie Ray earlier this week But it has your attention so far this year It hasn't mattered too much because Plisac's ERA is 1.64 across 11 innings I just don't know how that sticks unless something starts to correct So I think it's a good spot to stack the white socks here given the issues in the underlying numbers Plisac has had now then this white socks team I'm not sure if you'll need a lot of value given that Nobody on this slate from a pitching perspective is super super high salary But if Jake Berger plays I would I just want to talk about him quickly He started to earn more playing time against righties He started to move up in the order you sit in seventh against righties and he's pretty solid Berger in a limited sample against righties Has a 42% fly ball rates with a 268 iso He does strike out a lot, but against Plisac That's less of a concern than it would be against others They have plenty of good options if he does not play So it's not like a situation where the stack hinges on Jake Berger But like if he does play you want to get a little weird on a six game slate I don't mind Jake Berger has around for doing so. I think he's kind of fun So I would be okay with that for sure. Our second stack is against the second highest salary pitcher on this slate That's Carlos Carrasco and through two starts Carrasco looks awesome. And he's the guy you want to root for I am just a bit wary of buying into it because Carrasco is facing the Giants today. They're a very good lineup and you know You look at the first two stars for Carrasco. They've been phenomenal He's allowed just one or one in ten and two-thirds innings His strikeout rate is 33% and he backs that up with a 15.8% swinging strike rate. That's awesome And I'm stoked and I I hope it sticks, but I'm not sure it will The velocity for Carrasco pretty similar to last year He is leaving more on his slider and using fewer sinkers and I like that a lot sinkers suck sliders are great but is that small tweak enough to explain his shift back into stardom or Is a just variance or was it matchups because his first two starts were against Arizona and Washington They're pretty bad. The Giants pretty good. They lead the slate in both WRC plus and ISO against the opposing starters handed this and they're also tops and fly ball rate as well Carrasco has still struggled with fly balls and hard contact. He's actually been a Bit worse there than he was last year. So I don't want a second against him I hope he does well, but I think it's wise to stack against him here specifically with a team as good as the Giants I don't think people will be here because the team total is super low We'll get betting markets like it says don't stack the Giants probably any betting markets are smarter than me So might be the right route, but I do think the Giants are Undersold by the markets for today We do that to be a bit wary of pitch hitters in this game because Jack Peterson Has left five out of nine games early that he started two of those were in the sixth inning Mike Yastremsky has left five of nine games early as well same number as jock One of those in the sixth inning the others were seventh or later So jock is a higher risk of getting pulled early. Yes, Tremsky at risk getting pulled later on So it is good to be wary here. I do still like them Because they're probably still gonna get three plate appearances which might be enough But it is worth noting when you're weighing options that Yastremsky and Peterson specifically Do have risk here of getting yanked early if they left he comes out from the bullpen Our final stack for today The number three stack is the Yankees facing Michael Panetta in his Tigers debut and this is a Panetta revenge game Got to note that it was a long time ago, but hey, it still counts I'm not gonna turn down any revenge game But I think that the Yankees could do well against him here Panetta was solid last year for the twins last couple years He finished with a 3.62 era a really good showing for him, but that era hit some rough underlying numbers Specifically Panetta let up too much hard contact. The hard hit rate allowed for him was 46% that is a super high number and He let up a lot of balls in play his strikeout rate was 19% with a 5% walk rate So he should have had worse results and the advanced numbers back that up His expected era at baseball savants was 4.92 So I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the surface level numbers for Panetta because they were fluky His two starts in the minors did not go well either He had a 14% strikeout rates They 7% walk rate a lot of fly balls rough results Now he comes back up and has to face the Yankees, which is a pretty tough assignment I know they're not like they haven't been great this year, but like they've been good enough for sure So I think we should acknowledge that Panetta was good last year But I'm still on board a sacking against him here and honestly thinking more about it I should probably put the Yankees second Above the Giants Giants more of a contrarian tournament play, but the Yankees think better straight-up stacks We'll put the Yankees second live in game adjustments here on the solo shot with Panetta We do want to bump up lefties facing him They have a lower strikeout rates and better batted ball numbers against him, which makes Anthony Rizzo pretty obvious play And yes, I am okay with Joey Gallo who has been hideous Absolutely atrocious to open the year, but he's expected well as 364, which means he probably should snap out of it soon We'll see if he can do it here I agree it's been bad and it does not been fun, but I think he's at least worth taking a look at for today Because of Panetta's struggles because the low strikeout nature We'll see go deep Joey. Don't make me look too stupid things to watch it for this Thursday Slate I've been at least interested in both sides of the O's and the A's O's get Paul Blackburn, A's get Tyler Wells, neither guy gets strikeouts That's why we're at least interested here But they both get more ground balls than I'd like in terms of stacking plus neither offense really one you want to get Too excited about so that's why I'm merely interested rather than actively looking to stack this game Other thing to note here is the twins could Zach Renke not super into them A Grenke does a good job of suppressing hard contact He has let up a bit more loud contact this year though in a small sample It's a 49% hard hit rate through two starts strikeout rate is 2% that's not a typo 2% So I wouldn't stack against him on a full slate because I think he's good It's still a suppressing hard contact, but they're at least work at least worth at least worth looking into given Some of the issues that Grenke has had so Twins consideration not super jazz to get there, but I'd rank them Probably fourth above the O's and the A's and behind our top three stacks for the day Let's finish up here with our home run calls for this Thursday the boring one I think this counts as boring but Brandon belts facing off against Carlos Carrasco belt has been Smacking the poop out of the ball so far this year City field is bad in general, but it's not terrible for home runs wind blowing out I think that belt makes a lot of sense for a ding or pick for today The fun one will be Joey Gallo. Maybe those two should be flipped. I don't really know honestly Gallo's plus 360 to go deep over a fan of a sportsbook. So maybe he's not that fun, but He's a bad this year. So betting on a bad player We get the the good player is fun or boring with Brandon belts the bad player is fun with Joey Gallo So we'll go with that as our home run calls for today That is all that we have here on the solo shot once again I want to give a big thank you in advance to Tom Beck you at Austin Swain for filling in for me While I have out for the next couple weeks Commons on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Austin is a swing three on Twitter check them out there to get notifications as we go up each and every weekday And also again subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed to get that podcast right as it is posted If you got questions for me, I'm not gonna answer them for the next two weeks But you can find me on Twitter at Jim Sonnis and J. I am s a and and yes You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast if you want to see some cheese And wine I guess you can follow me. I don't know maybe I'll tweet some of that out either way I'll be there on Twitter at Jim Sonnis big. Thank you once again to everyone for tuning in and good luck to you Not just today, but also for the next two weeks. We'll talk to you once again in early May for more MLB DFS This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network