 Hello everybody, it is Swing Jam of Xtrades and today I'll be doing my weekend review. First ETF I want to cover is SPI, the S&P 500. I'm pretty bullish on the indexes. As you could see here for SPI, we have a five leg wave that's about a form. First leg up, second, third, fourth, and it's about a form, it's fifth leg. I think a good short term target is this ride circle. It has three confluency points, the first being the anchored VWOP from the year to date, you know, start of 2022. The second is there's a long term trend line and third is this support and resistance box that we've seen hold pretty well over the past 12 months. I think after we hit this point, we're going to see a longer term consolidation, mainly because the, you know, what carries the index, Apple, Microsoft, those larger cap names are kind of overextended. As you could see here with the Dow Jones, it's very rare that we get a 20% rally in less than a month. And as you could see, there's been barely any pullbacks for this index and it's also coming into resistance. So I expect that maybe this can run a little bit further, maybe to 35, 323. As you could see here, I'll put a yellow line, but I don't think we'll get past that. I think it needs a longer term consolidation as it processes these gains. So there's some short term upside, the longer term, I would expect some consolidation or even a pullback as this type of rally is not sustainable. The next thing I want to cover is high yield corporate bonds and it relates to the dollar and interest rates. I think that this has bottomed, if you look at TLT more specifically, we finally kind of got out of this bear flag trend. We've been making lower lows for a very long time, a bear flag form that kind of broke out. And the same thing was going to happen here, but we finally broke above that and we're kind of getting a sustained rally, which we have not seen all year. So it's a good sign that at least in the intermediate term, we've seen a top in the rates and a dollar, which is very good for the indexes. It means that it can allow them to rally in the short term. If you look at UUP, which is a dollar index, we're basing here on decent support, but I do expect that it will break below the year to date in review up and will most likely at least test this 2788 level. Also if you look back at previous examples when the dollar ran heavily back in 2014, you can see that we first get some sort of downwards movement, but then we consolidate. I think we're going to see something similar here. We saw the downwards movement, you may even go down to 2802, like I said earlier. I think I actually said 2782. And then we're just going to consolidate. This consolidation can allow the markets to rally a little bit, but then they should see a further down swim. If you look back to 2009, it was a similar situation. We didn't get the consolidation. Instead, we had a rally with a lower high. Either way, it's pretty certain in my opinion that we won't see 31 and above for UUP anytime soon. And the volume kind of supports that when you get this sort of massive run up in volume, it's going to be very hard for the ETF to make those volume highs in order to get to 31, 32. We're going to need volume consistently in the 30 million range in the weekly. And as you could see, the average volume is only 5 million on the weekly. That's very unlikely to happen. Now looking at rates, we kind of have a similar situation that we saw earlier in the year. We have a little bit of a head and shoulders pattern here. We did have a fake breakdown that didn't hold. I think we're going to see something similar instead that that breakout to the downside will actually hold a target that I'm aiming for is this yellow line here at 3102. It's a smaller pattern. So I wouldn't expect as much downside as I would have earlier in the year. The next thing I want to cover is XLF. It's very hard for any market to have sustained downside with financials doing well. It's not really part of the picture. And we could see the financials are holding up very well. We're seeing a lot of these slower assets kind of having a similar look with their ETF charts in the sense that we're finally coming above these 2021 highs. As you could see in 2021, our range was formed in the middle or early part of 2022. We broke down between that range. Now we're coming up and holding above those. So the ETFs can continue to do that. It's going to be very hard to be bearish in the short term. As long as this purple level here holds at $35, I would be bullish on financials. I think a good short term target is 3712. This is a slower moving asset class. I would not expect any sort of very aggressive rally if it breaks this upper white trend line. The next thing I want to cover is Tesla. It's one of the only things I'm bearish about that will be covering in this video just because you had such a long turn topping pattern here and it's now breaking below that support level that we saw formed in the late end of 2020. Kind of towards the end of this major rally, that's where the support started. As you can see, this is a very long-term topping pattern. We did get a bear flag at the end of this year in October and now we're having trouble holding this support. So if this pattern follows through and Tesla cannot hold the 180 level, my first target would be 112 from the longer-term perspective. In a shorter-term perspective though, I think this anchored VWAP that's pinned to the low of the rally that was formed in 2019 is a good first starting point, which is around 137. And it also directly lines up with this gap that remains unfilled. They do expect to get filled and then very near future. Next I want to cover ARC. I think ARC ties into Tesla very well. And as you can see for ARC, it's holding this long-term R and support level very, very well. And as you can see on the daily, some volume has seemed to come in when it retested this level. So I think a short-term target of $40 is fairly good bet that that will hit, maybe even $45. However, I do not think that this blue anchored VWAP will be broken. It has withholded all the rallies so far this year and I think it will remain to do so. I think ARC has some structural damage. As you can see, we saw mass exodus of funds. And I do think that this 22-18 level will get hit sometime in 2023. But if you do want to have sort of a low-risk setup, you definitely can. You can have a stop below the most recent lows at, let's say, $32. And if it does happen to break 50, there's a good chance that it will go to $70. That's 100% upside for around maybe 5% to 10% risk. The odds of that playing out is not very high, but from a risk-to-reward perspective, it's very hard to beat 100% possible gains for 5% to 10% loss. Next, I want to cover autosone. I think autosone's a great stock. It's a slow remover, but something that we've seen institutional investors continue to stay in. As you could see, the volume is very, very low near the highs, which is actually a good thing. It means that there's no news event that would cause investors to flee the stock. As you could see, for example, back in May, we had a large volume reading here, and that was actually the most recent low that we've seen ASEO can actually rally off of. From that point, the stock is up 50%. But even in September, we saw a very high volume candle that kind of marked a local low. It hit this good support level at 2,000, and it since went above 2,500. The indexes, like SPI, do something very, very similar. As you could see near the lows is when those high volume readings occur, and when the stock rallies, you'll see that low volume drip. Again, it means there's no news, nothing from the Fed, there's nothing structurally wrong with the stock that investors would need to change their positioning. So it's much easier to have the stock just float up on good volume. It may not go up 20% in a week, but it's a slow and steady gainer. It's in a very, very strong sector. It's one of the highest performing sectors of the year, and fundamentally it's a very good stock. It has 50% gross margins, very good sales growth year over year per store basis, and very much like this stock for a longer term hold. The final thing I'll cover today is GDX. This kind of wraps into the dollar hypothesis, and if we think the dollar is going to top here, then gold is going to be a very good benefinder of that. I think that if GDX can break the short-term resistance level, as you can see here in purple at 2863, then a good target would be 3369 in the yellow line, which is around an 18% rally. As long as this 2598 level holds, I think this is a good likely chance of happening, and we're finally starting to get above the anchored view ops. This anchored view op is pinned from the highest point of 2022, and we're finally being able to hold above that level. We can also see there's a lot of volume coming in near the lows, which would signify that investors have poured in a good amount of money, and they've seen some sort of fundamental change where they would put those amount of shares. The average volume is around 23 million, and we saw 50 million on the start of this rally, which like I said would signal that there's something changing and they need a reposition. So I hope you guys enjoyed the video. Just to do a quick recap, I think short-term we could see some good gains as spies most likely will hit this 412 level. Beyond that, I think the markets need a longer-term consolidation to kind of process the gains, especially the Dow Jones 30. These are the highest cap stocks in the world, so these stocks are going to need to consolidate, and I think the rest of the markets will do as well. If you're targeting smaller cap names, it won't be as affected, but the markets will not be able to hold a 20% gain a month from the Dow Jones 30. When it comes to the dollar in rates, we've seen a short-term top, which should fuel more inflow into equities. So I hope you guys enjoyed the video and have a great week.