 Let's get over to our man, Mr. Tim Ord, as we do every Tuesday and Thursday, and don't forget folks, you can reach Tim every trading day at www.Ord-Orocal.com, that's www.Ord-Orocal.com. Tim Ord, what's going on brother? Well, I was hoping for a little bit stronger week than what we had, and out of notice here, probably 10-15 minutes ago, I'm getting out of my long visitation. Ah, yeah, okay. Yeah, we kind of look at it. Let's go to chart one. Okay, yeah, let's see. Let's get this up. Give me one second here. There we go. Okay. Okay, I have it. All right, Loneo, we've covered this before. We actually talked about it on your show, and it's a pretty simple method. It seems to work pretty well. This chart goes back to mid-2016, and the middle window there is the monthly SPX. Okay. And I use a candlestick pattern, and every time the monthly candle closed 50% above the upper bologna band, normally you get a consolidation. And we did that in actually in February, so I got that dark circle around it. I see. And so that kind of suggested March may not be a banner month, and nothing will vary. Sometimes you get decent declines on it. A lot of times you get kind of a sideways move the next month. So I'm thinking this month is going to be more of a sideways move, not a top of any consequence. But you know, some probably pull back next week, as a matter of fact, these now the wise is the ninth weakest week of the year. And actually this week is the eighth strongest week of the year. And this week is not strong. So maybe it's going to put more oomph to the downside next week. I don't have to wait and see. And the second window up from the bottom is the SPX VIX ratio. It's a monthly chart, and it's got a little divergence there. The tan areas, I pointed out where the SPs made higher highs, this ratio made lower highs. And last month, we also made a lower high. So nothing significant, maybe just kind of a minor pullback for a month, you know, month of March, and build some energy where another builds the energy where the trend gets back up to, you know, the 10 day up to 1.2 or something like that. But I don't see any top of any consequence. But we've been actually, you know, it was Wildton, we've been trading in the same place for about three weeks now, you know? Yeah. Yeah. So we're probably kind of just stay here. And also the monthly, yeah, we're halfway over. And, you know, maybe, you know, the markets just do for a rest, you're a model of consolidation. So I flipped the chart too. Okay. Real quick, real quick. Yeah. This is kind of a chart. When I made this chart, and now the top window is the 10 day, which is two weeks, RSI for the SPX ratio, which is the next window down. Right. And so it measures the bond market against the equity market. And so if these two markets move opposite to each other in a strong way, it needs to rebalance is how I come up with it. It seems to work pretty well. We had about 68, 69 today. And we started to back it off. And so it kind of gave me a cue that this probably rally is not going to continue. So when the RSI of this ratio gets up around 70 and higher, normally, which is the third window down, which is the daily SPX, normally you get some sort of a consolidation, not a big one. Sometimes you do, sometimes you don't, but usually you get a consolidation that could last a week or two. So that's, I think that's probably what we're saying here. We got a couple of them, you know, end of February, you know, last couple of days. And now we're kind of getting another one. So I think next week's probably going to be a down week and kind of matches that you know, the ninth week is week of the year seasonality. Yeah. And it seems like this, this, this ratio is almost like an early wanting signal, which is like, yeah. So it gets up there. So, you know, you can pay attention to it. And a lot of times they're just minor consolidations. You know, the blue marks on the SPX chart I got there shows what happens. You know, a lot of times they're just kind of a time out and then a weekly chart or, you know, three, four, five days, the kind of consolidates, the bottom signals work pretty well too. As a matter of fact, this gave a bullish signal back in December, you know, which is circled in reds. That's when the RFI gets down below around 30. Yeah. You know, the market was going up and it wasn't a double top because this ratio was banging around the 30 range. So that was kind of a bullish situation. And it turned out to be correct. And it picked out some other lows in, if I could, about March of 2023, it picked up that low. And so, yeah, it's kind of an early warning sign. So, and then we're down today. So I'm hoping it stays above my open price. I got it long, but nothing real, you know, it's just gobbly goop in here. Well, it seems, I know, because even, I mean, the volume is going to be light today. That's what it looks like anyway. I mean, unless they come in with a huge amount of volume with the clothes, which, you know, we know they can't. But right now, this volume is not that big, particularly going against Monday. Do you know what I mean? If we just look at keep it tight, going against Monday, it's, you know, it's going to be lighter than Monday. So pretty wild. Yeah, but we're going to be a little bit higher than yesterday, because we already are. Yeah. Oh yeah, we're going to be higher than yesterday. Hey, just stay right there, Tim. Tim Boyd, Tom O'Brien, we're going to be coming right back, folks, who have bisected and dissected in this market. We have the Dow down 306 and Aztec off 126. S&P's down 40. Tim and I come right back, folks. Welcome back, folks. Tim O'Brien, we do appreciate you growling and prowling with us out here. We have the Dow. The Dow is off 280. You get the Aztec off 116. S&Ps are off 37. We talk when I'm in. Mr. Tim O'Brien, we're looking at some charts right now. Okay, Tim, we're ready. All right. Let's go to church three. Okay. Yeah, here's what I thought was going to happen. And again, I sent out a brief report selling my position probably about a half hour ago. But anyhow, back on, I don't know, I had a circle in volume there on the chart. I see it, yeah, five days ago. Yeah, that's high volume day. A lot times with high volume days are tested. I thought we'd leave to get back to high volume day. And we never did touch it. So that was my scenario. And the reason why I did go long, I did, we had, on that day, we had a trend close to 1.21. The day before we had a close of 1.15. Right. For that, we had 260 down to green. And it was kind of golly-goop. But anyhow, it kind of leaned bullish. So I know that the downtrend wasn't going to do much of it. They're going to try to rally it. And I thought they'd get back to that high. And, you know, I guess they could do it tomorrow and maybe not. But that was my upside objective. And I think kind of just started falling apart today. So I just getting out and say, I'll look at the next trade. I'm with you. But here, yeah, let's just go to the gold issues. There's quite a bit of stuff going on here. Okay. Hey, Tim, you know, so listen to this. And folks, listen to this. You know, it's kind of cool what's been happening in gold. And, you know, we know from history, we haven't got a lot of gold calls here. Thank God. Because when all the gold calls come in, that's when the turn comes. But check this out, Tim. Yesterday, and if you haven't seen this yet, today's Wednesday, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yesterday in the front page of the Wall Street Journal, folks, okay, was gold. Now, I don't think I've ever seen, I might have seen it in the front page of the Wall Street Journal, Tim, but not like it was yesterday. And I'm saying to myself now, this is pretty cool, because I don't see a lot of excitement around the gold market. But yet, between Bloomberg, Bloomberg has done a couple of stories. The Wall Street Journal has done a story right in the front page. And what they're all talking about, folks, is this, is that the aspect of, which is kind of, so check this out, Tim, this is kind of weird actually, that the gold ETFs, right, they've been losing market cap, meaning that people have been selling the gold ETFs, okay? That being said, physical gold, the central banks have been buying hand over fist. You're talking about double and triple what they normally buy. So when I saw this, I says, man, this is kind of interesting, and where you know where I went to him. I went, you know that chart that you showed us that when you go from minus, you know, 300, then up to 1,000 or whatever, and that that's the middle of the run? When I saw this, I says, Yeah, APD average, I think, up down volume, wherever that was. Yes. And then when I saw this, I says, you know what, man, this is amazing. Normally, when you see that, folks, that's the end of the market. Well, I don't even think the market started. So it was kind of cool, man. Do you know what I mean? It's like, okay, you know, we got an article on gold, maybe, maybe some more people will start kicking in. We'll see. Yeah, I see. But let's go over these shots for real quick. Yeah, interesting story. They're selling the ETFs, but they're buying the physical gold. Yes. So yeah, that's a little strange. I know. But you know, you know, this is a chart, in my opinion, that dictates the bull and bear market of GDX, the gold stock. Yes. So if we can get this thing in an uptrend, you know, it can last a couple, three years. But anyhow, in a nutshell, this chart goes back to 2008 or thereabouts. And all it is, the bottom window is the cumulative advanced decline monthly chart with the Bollinger Band on it. Okay. The top window is the cumulative up-down volume for GDX, the up-down volume for GDX, cumulative as a monthly chart. And now this, this doesn't try to get to low or the high. What it does is get the 80% in between. Yes. So my opinion, I think the bottom is actually in October of 2022. And I can show you the charts why, but we don't really have the time for that. But I may do that, you know, maybe the next show or something. Cool. Yeah. Okay. Yep. Having said that, anyhow, this chart gave a sell signal, it looked like about January 2021, as both those indicators, the top indicator and the bottom indicator fell below the mid-Bollinger Band. And it's still below the mid-Bollinger Band for talking. So that chart gave a sell signal, you know, three years ago. And it's still on a sell signal. So even though there have been some rallies in the gold stock, the whole market's actually been pretty weak because it actually measures the up-volume and down-volume and it also measures advanced and decline. Right. So since 2021, the advanced decline for GDX has actually been at a downtrend. And so there have been short-term pops, but there's never been any fall through to the upside, at least not yet. And so once this gets above the mid-Bollinger Band, then that'll be the time when most stocks, gold stocks, no matter what they are, will start responding. And so, you know, a lot of these stocks, you know, even though the market takes them as higher now than it was back October, most gold stocks are actually below the October lows, according to this chart. So it's real misery, right? So misery is good because, you know, it's kind of like the Phoenix coming out of the ashes. Right. And so we're kind of into that stage, you know. Are this indicated on a bicycle yet? No, it's not. But let's go to chart number five. Let me ask you something first. I just figured out what you're doing here, man. This is kind of cool, meaning on this ratio. So, no, I always follow you along what you're doing, but I'm just realizing, so what did you do? You took the formula from the arms, right? And then you're doing it with the ratio with the GDX, right? Because up-down volume, right? Well, yeah, it's advanced decline. Yeah. Right. The volume demand and also the up-down volume is accumulative, though. I like it. No, I get it. Okay, I see. I see accumulative, though. Okay, cool, man. I like it. Yeah, so I'm just trying to figure out how you get all this. It measures the strength in the GDX market. Yes. Because it takes in advanced decline. Yeah. It takes in up-down volume. That's pretty much all the, that's what GDX is. No, I know. I know, man. I'm digging it. Okay, cool. Yeah, so it really gives a great picture. You know, they gave a sell signal back in the late 2011 and remained on a sell signal all the way into 2016. Right. You see that? We want that buy signal. No, I can see it. I like that ratio, man. You know, that's, that's for the, yeah. Yeah, it works pretty good. We got another. Yeah, just stay right there, folks. Tim and I gonna be coming back. We're talking gold out here. Dow, Dow right now, down 310. Nasdaq's up 122. S&P's are off 39. Stay right there. Tim and I come right back, folks. Welcome back, folks. Tim O'od, Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate you. Growl at a problem with us out here. We have the Dow at out 275. Nasdaq's off 100. S&P's are off 33. We're talking gold right now with our man, Mr. Tim O'od. Go ahead, Tim. All right. Let's go to chart 5. Okay. So, we're kind of look at the bigger picture. The bigger picture is still of the cumulative advanced decline for GDX and up-down volume cumulative or still in a downtrend. So, so let's go. So now this chart, the middle window is a weekly XAU gold ratio. Okay. And so, this gives more signals and stuff. And the last signal that was occurred, we got one here just recently because this chart is a weekly chart. But the important signal I can't, I think it came in in 2022, July, September of that point it out. That's when the when the RSI of the weekly ratio gets below 30, then all those blue lines across there is when those signals were occurred. Yes. It comes out pretty accurate. So, I know, man. This is. Yeah. So, when the weekly XAU gold ratio goes through the floor, actually it's bullish. Right. But you got to wait till the RSI gets down below 30 that turns up. Then that's the signal. We just had one here in mid-Debruary, I think it was or something. But yeah, we just got a bi-signal and it's starting to go up. What I want to talk about is the weekly XAU ratio or weekly XAU bottom window. Okay. You got a trend line connecting the highs going back to 2000. I see that. Yeah. So, that looks like a head and shoulders. And to get through that trend line, you're going to need to sign a strength. So, now if you do get to sign a strength, that means there's a lot of energy going into the XAU. And if you go back to chart number four. Okay. If you do that, the window of the monthly GDX chart. Yes. The middle window. Yeah. So, that's the same line there, but it's on the monthly chart. Oh, I see. I see. I got it. Yep. I got it. It's right where the arrow is. That's who we're looking for, folks. They cut that trend line. Nice. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. Cut to draw. If you get a sign of strength there, most likely both those ratios up down volume and the cumulative advanced decline, most likely we'll get through that mid Bollinger band. Right. So, I'm assuming, but if you get a sign of strength that big, because this is on a monthly chart and a weekly chart, you're going to see some fireworks going on. And that's what has to happen to get both those up down volume advanced client indicators to get above the mid Bollinger band. And I think that's what's in front of us. If you notice, we've been in the cell signal since 2021, which is abnormally long, mostly signals last a couple of years. Well, we had a four year downtrend starting 2012, you know, went down for four years. Well, we've been going down since 2021 on this, on both of those cumulative advanced declines. So, we're due for something other than down. Right. So, I think we got time wise looking pretty good. And so, I'm thinking there's going to be a burst of energy. And I think this year, but you know, I kind of called Wolf before it never really happened. No, no, listen, man, you know what the cool thing is is that, you know, where we're, you know, we broke eyes set up for it. Yeah, we set up for it. I mean, when you break eyes, there's nothing on the left hand side now, folks, of the physical gold contract. You know, and in fact, you know what? Hey, check it out too. There was an article, some of these articles, man, you just can't, there was an article on Bloomberg, and this was yesterday, folks, okay, and they were claiming that the futures have never been that high for the CTAs. The CTAs, folks, are all trend following, you know, advisors. The bottom line is that it had been that high. If you look at another article today, it's something like 500 and something, 1000 longs. And right now on the, in the futures market, Tim, we're at like 466 or something. 466,000 longs. Yeah, they're piling in. And that's, listen, we know, if you don't know the CTAs, folks, what happens, that's the guy that bought the Boston Red Sox. That's the guy that bought the Celtics. When you get it right, just, you know, and you follow a trend, man, you get it really right, you know what I mean. So, you know, they're giving us a little hand here, Tim. That's what you're up. Yeah. So, you know, this chart number five, you know, it gave a bicycle, so we're on a bicycle right now. And if it stays on a bicycle and we get above, on the bottom window there, we get above that line, and most likely you'll see a sign of strength. That's a white scoff stuff, because you gotta have a sign of strength through a resistance area. So, I'm thinking that's probably what's gonna happen. And when I'm looking at this, Tim, we're laying right at it, right? Yeah. Okay, cool. That's it. You don't need a lot. No, you don't. I can see what you need. Right, okay. Yeah, you know, but we're still, you know, right, we're right at it. So, let's flip to chart six. Okay. And now this chart goes all the way back to, but 84. Okay. 84. So, it really looks at the bigger chart. And that middle window is a monthly XAU gold ratio. Yeah. And the bottom window is gold. Now he said, you know, we probably broke out in gold. And so I got a little circle there, blue, and the breakout. So, I'm thinking gold's already broke out. The gold socks haven't. But there's a trend. Now, go back to the middle window, which is a monthly XAU gold ratio. Yeah. I got a trend line going from the high of 1996. Okay. Connecting that high, it looks like about 2006. I drew it all the way down to where we are right now. If you notice, we've been, the ratio has been trending right below that trend line. I know. Can you see that? I can see it, man. So now to get through that trend line, it also needs a sign of strength. Right. It's just the opposite of, like, when you get the bull into being, was grabbing the low, then you're up, right? This is grabbing it. Yeah, right in that, okay. Right. So, to get through that line, you know, you have to have a sign of strength, just like when you break it. Yes. So, anyhow, this is the white top stuff. So, you know, you've been hovering against that trend line. You're not breaking it. It's just, you know, since 2000, mid-2021, you've just been trotting down to that trend line. You know, we're right at it. Yep. We're also, at the previous lows, if you draw the trend line from the 2016 low, right, you draw that trend line up, or at the bottom of it. So, it's either going to break up or down, you know. Yeah. And with gold breaking up, seems like we're going to break that trend line. Well, if we break the trend line, you should see a sign of strength through this ratio. Yes. Well, if the ratio is going up, that means gold stocks are outperforming gold. And so, you know, will that happen? You know, it's at the point, do or die. Either we're going to break up or we're going to break down. Yeah, right. And, you know, gold is so tricky, folks. You know, it's funny to him. I was looking at the gold stocks today while I was looking at them every day. But just when you said, I was looking, I said, okay, man, are you going to give us a beating here or what, man? You know, because even for gold being down today, these stocks are not, you know, they're down a few pennies, man, but nothing heavy, do you know what I mean? And the same with the contract. The contract is only down 13 bucks right now. It rejected 2155 this morning. We're 2167. And we did, well, we're doing, I think we're doing 200,000 contracts versus we're going into 300,000. Let me see. Yeah, we're still at 1.9 million contracts. Listen, Tim, we appreciate all the great education. Do you have a great weekend? Have a happy St. Patrick's Day too, man. And we'll talk to you Tuesday. Okay, man. Thank you. Thank you guys. Love you, man. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.