 power trading hour with your host David White call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044 now David White and welcome all to another exciting addition to the power trading hour with me you're unbelievable and squeezibly soft host as always we like to come to you at this time the following takes place between 2pm so what do we have going on today well kind of the wind up you want to see if you think you're going to get a lot of action on Friday you want to see today be kind of a low volume day going into options expiration and so far kind of that about 3.7 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated volume you also don't want to see a lot of action in the indexes themselves and being down two or three points on the S&P cash down 40 on the Dow down 14 on the Nasdaq rustles up to crude oil is flat gives you a pretty good reading about what we've got going on in the market that is a fairly quiet day if you get the action today then tomorrow is generally fairly benign if today is benign then Friday drawn normally into expiration we're going to have some action that probably plays into earnings after the bell tonight with both AMAT and Nvidia I will take a short victory lap on Cisco it is lower today and they said exactly what I've been saying since earnings came out before down about almost 8% now at 44.72 and that is that the cloud business is starting to get mature people moving to the cloud their their systems are that and they're not going to be having the kind of massive moves that they've had that is propelled some of them like Google and Microsoft into the stratosphere so probably not going to see a lot of movement yet because a lot of people are not going to think that Cisco is really in a position they kind of ignored it when both Amazon and and Microsoft and Google all kind of hinted that the big data center business is still going to be good it's just not going to be what it was the last five years as people were making a stampede into that business but you know what if there's always a business that kind of ends up being the choke point for everything and the last thing you have to buy after you buy a great deal of server products are routers that's what connects everything up you there may be less expensive products but by the time it gets to actually sending that data across a a what would you call it a wilderness landscape where the old west rules of personal property probably are about applicable to today where there are bandits at every turn people saying we don't need no stinking badges those kind of folks out there in the western parts of the states that they may not worry about laws so much maybe they're back in Russia China or Ukraine you never know they are all in need you know in some kind of system to keep them out first line at events are these giant Cisco routers and of course Cisco kind of had a boom over the last year mostly because we were getting rid of the huawei knockoffs were basically copies of the Cisco routers and of course their routers also had kind of a little extra flavor to them from the chai comms and that they had instant back doors we've never really found out exactly what the U.S. government showed to everybody else but apparently it was a rather instant certainly even if you can get anybody to agree on anything from both sides of the aisle of U.S. Congress and the Senate certainly it was compelling data and why they got axed out of the United States fairly quickly so Cisco had that kind of a I'm going to say kind of a honeymoon period that honeymoon period lasted till last night so yeah you got you got to take a look at that anyway we've got ord tim ord the one and only the ord or the ord of the oracle of ord who will be on in the next segment wanted to get through a little bit of history we'll get that out of the way we'll be back we'll be looking at some of his longer term charts and some of his commentary do our history and then we'll come back from the commercial it is nothing but history repeating it on this day in 1851 laid by British telegraph engineer John Watkins Brant Brett Brett Brett and his brother Jacob Brett I wonder if they had anything to do with all those television series with Maverick and Brett and all that world's first operational underwater telegraph cable opens for business connecting the English city of Dover to the French city of Calais the cable was run at the narrowest point of the English Channel with this link communication between London and Paris was made instantly possible six years or seven years later something like that they tried to lay one between England and the United States actually Newfoundland it worked for a handful of days then came the uncivil war and it took almost in the late 1870s 1860 and 1869 1918 72 ish before we got a working line between the United States and Europe which kind of changed everything for a while of course until radio and about 1910 that kind of thing anyway huge undertaking of course this worked for about 10 years before the cable started to leak and they had to replace them and kind of one of the first big times that people started looking at synthetic materials this led to kind of the first versions of plastic that was going to be used to shield these cables later on at the time that this cable was made they used a thing called gutta percha which is kind of like a kind of like a tarry like substance that came from trees but in a hurry to get all the gutta percha that they could get to the west to make cables of course they got down almost all those trees they hardly exist anymore and of course that played right into the hand of plastics and other coatings for cables now not unheard of to see a cable last 50 75 years in fact a lot of the cables run in the early 1910 1920s are still working between us and the old country we'll be back after this with tim or if you're not currently using the taz profile scanner when looking at setting up your 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uh the planes of Nebraska and Iowa uh Tim has written a newsletter for some 20 30 years now uh you can always go and find him at his uh website at or dash oracle.com and of course uh we welcome Tim or on to the airwaves once again how you doing today Tim good thanks for having me on so good enough let's get into these charts right away here i've got your chart one up what are we looking at yeah yeah yeah this is uh kind of a little difference between the top chart is the VIX and the um uh bottom window on that chart is the bowlinger band width and what it does is measures the width of the bowlinger band so what it helps to do is just kind of visualize when the bowler bowlinger band start to pinch normally whatever the bowlinger bands is on that implies an impulse wave uh is not far off because volatility is extremely low that proceeds high volatility and once high volatility is present and what comes next is usually low volatility so anyhow the the bottom bowlinger band there we're at areas that we were back in July August and May uh the May and July periods were were tops and the July period for yeah the May and and well it'll be uh end of July were tops and that first of July period was actually a breakout of a of a resistance area or uh yeah resistance area popped up and so we're back down to a very narrow um bowlinger band on the VIX suggesting that VIX is going to start having higher volatility and in my opinion when VIX goes up the market well there's not a pinion when the VIX goes up the market goes down so this is kind of a warning sign that the market really over the last week week and a half really hadn't gone anywhere it's pretty much where it was two weeks ago or a week and a half ago and this uh low volatility um uh suggesting we're going to start moving probably down uh if you go to the next window up from the bottom that's the SPY VIX ratio and what that says is if this is trending up that means that the SPY is outperforming VIX when it's going down then the VIX is outperforming the SPYs well enough trends uh the SPY outperforms the VIX and downtrends the VIX outperforms the SPY if you notice uh we had a bearish crossover here about a few days ago or a couple of days ago showing that now the VIX is outperforming the SPYs uh so that's come another bearish sign have we turned down yet well there's a there's a moving average on the SPYs which is a 10 period moving average and normally when you're above it you're in uptrend and right now we're still above it and momentum trumps everything if a mark's going up i don't care what you have it has to turn down before you can see a top is in and we haven't turned down yet and we may not turn down uh because beppin says you have to turn down here all these these indicators about the VIX and the bowl in japan and stuff like that just say we're near a point where we're probably going to change direction has that direction changed as of right now no but it's getting a warning sign that that direction may change here pretty soon so would you would you think would you think that at a minimum diminished returns to the upside yeah that's what i'm saying here we're just you know we're just we're not we're not in a position to go higher here if we do turn down how low can we go we'll probably go back down to the previous highs in my opinion which is around 3000 area or 300 area on the spys 3000 on the spks so nothing real significant well how do you put this together with the summation indexes which look like they've all turned down to me let's see i think that's we've got that on the next chart okay i'm getting the hole to get ahead of you that's right we we can go right there okay um but yeah the next chart actually the top window is the mccall and osclair and i put a a tan line where the mccall and oscars below zero and when it's above zero i just left it white if you notice that the tan line mccall and oscars is actually below the zero line right now usually when mccall and oscars below zero line the advanced decline in general is negative it kind of takes a moving average of it so not every day is a negative day but most days are to get the mccall and osclair below zero and even though it's been below zero here kind of eyeball it looks like about a week week and a half and so far the market's holding up and i got a bottom window there i have a advanced four-day advance and a four-day decline is kind of an oscillator thing and if you notice we're basically kind of just zero there uh we kind of went bearish then kind of went back to neutral so that's kind of neutral right now the advanced client is as the four-day average anyhow is not saying a whole lot but the mccall and oscars which is a little bit longer term kind of an indicator uh says you know that the trend is having a hard time going up for sure because advanced client is not showing strength at all so that's another warning sign too that the market's kind of running out of steam can the market all sudden you know for some reason uh pop up on the advanced decline get a positive compared to the clients yes possible but turn everything around but probably not you know but again momentum is still up you know is there a sell signal today you know in my opinion not until the the spy is followed below the 10-day moving average which you know could could even do it today because we're not very far from it but so far it hasn't happened yet so what what do you think about the seasonality of coming into late november and december on this i'm kind of i'm not looking for the wheels to fall off the wagon but i kind of think of uh 1999 where everybody was just waiting to sell into the new new year and the market's just kind of waited until just january third before they cracked how does that play in or do you think anything like that's available to us where they may just you know move us up one percent before the end of the year and everybody's waiting for next year to sell uh i yeah that's a possibility but if you look at the cycle charts um oh what's uh i can't remember the guy's name uh me that's uh stark traders almanac i kind of pay attention to that and he's got a cycle low around that in november thanksgiving time frame give or take a week from that could be a week later could be a week early but this time frame is usually uh week into uh the thanksgiving time frame and around the thanksgiving time frame a lot of time there's a low uh didn't work out last year but uh because the whole december was down till december 24th that was final low but uh if we do pull back here probably the thanksgiving time frame which is basically well just two weeks away two weeks away from today is a varied word we're gonna go to the break now tim we're gonna go to the break now tim we'll be back uh after this short time out path of least resistance is david white's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now's a perfect time for a 30 day 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new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com and we're back with tim uh let's check in with the market which is already in progress over most of this show uh basically flat on the s and p dow down 32 nasdaq's down nine russell's basically flat a quarter point higher uh tim we're back uh to you and tim are the ward dash oracle.com if you want to check out his newsletter which is really kind of a if i'm kind of a short and medium trader um tim has a uh much longer view than i do generally so it's kind of a different flavors but uh uh we spent a lot of time together in the 2000s trading i learned a lot from him i think uh especially his book about volume maybe the best book about volume there is that's the secret of price and volume available on amazon still so uh what's uh take off uh where you left off when you left okay uh what we're looking at them calling oscar blows zero so market definitely is losing at least advance client wise you know which is strength is losing the strength to the upside so again as market turned down no you know we can set here you know possibly get set here for another two weeks or a week and a half or whatever one of the things you use glue uh turn down so but go ahead one of the things you used to talk about was if you just hang at the eyes eventually you're going to break through them you say again yeah for uh many times you would say hey if you're just hanging out at highs eventually you're going to break through them how does right so how do you put those yeah that's actually a good point no if if you don't back away the trouble is we're we're not at you know we're at new highs there's nothing above us right you're right if you're hanging against some previous highs um oh no we don't have any examples on these these charts a lot of times if you just if you fail the back away so you so you go up some previous highs come close to them anyhow and the market's just hanging right below the previous highs a lot of times a marker will actually eat through those highs and keep on going and i've seen that a bunch of different times i don't think that's the case this time around because we're actually at new highs and actually that brings me up to the next point uh of of this next chart the reason why i don't think we're going to head too much higher but cinema does play an important part of the market it's not uh a perfect but a lot of times if you get everybody on the one side of the fence normally you want to go to the other side and so and the way you look at that to figure out where everybody is you go look go look at put call ratio readings and uh i do have a chart on that which is the third chart and this i just took the the equities the bottom window is the equity put call ratio reading with the 21 day moving average so it takes the last three weeks um for actually longer than that because it's uh it's uh trading days the next chart above that or next window above that is the uh 10 day moving average of the equity put call ratio reading above that the three day moving average and i have those uh red vertical lines there to try to match up where all of them are in the the various levels at the same time and so it came fairly close at july high is as weak or so early uh pretty much nailed uh pretty close to the may high then there's another high in september it came close to it's nailing and now we're back there again we hit that about a week ago we're all three of those moving averages uh the 21 day the 10 day and the three day are all in bearish um uh configurations and so what that says is everybody's betting on the call side so it kind of implies that everybody's on the long side here so that usually doesn't bode well especially when you get the 21 day moving average uh in the bearish level so they bought their calls you know they're they're waiting for the rally and so far the rally hasn't happened and could it turn down you know it's definitely a possibility but everybody's bullish here according to this cement indicator you know the equity put call ratio reading so um yeah the market really has enough energy to keep pushing higher is my my point yeah the only thing i have a problem with is that the people that are shorting are shorting things like apple and microsoft um you know they're uh the i mean they're piling on these things like the companies are going broke tomorrow and of course with uh microsoft or with like apple being 10 12 percent of the nasdaq by itself uh as you said once everybody wants to get on one side it's probably not getting that way and this sits there and takes up another couple of days but you get five or six stocks like that where everybody's short uh the indexes can stay up for a fairly long time uh as those shorts are wrong when the bulk of the market continues to slide lower yeah yeah i agree there especially apple you know it's it's a it may correct here a little bit but i'm i'm you know if we do correct which i i think we actually probably will will you know uh will be this week see this week's office expiration week and you know way to kill options uh to get both sizes to go nowhere right oh so the the market it may do this what's doing today may do it tomorrow and where there's long puts or long calls uh it's nailed so and then and the actual move may come you know maybe next week um which i think it's it's a good chance that could definitely be just because sentiment here is just leading to the call side just too much i think so due for a pullback but we'll probably just pull back to sports gear everybody have a bottom around maybe the thanksgiving time frame be overtake uh then then i think this year we will have a uh a rally through christmas you know somewhere beginning beginning of end of november maybe uh first of december and rally to the year in it i have another chart i didn't put put on here but it's the sp spx to bond ratio uh it's actually breaking out which is really a longer term uh indicator you don't really uh try to trade a weak trade with it but it does pick out in me a term and it looked like it's broke out of a of a of a pattern a consolidation pattern is heading up when that ratio heads up that's usually both bullish for a immediate term i'm talking you know three months six months even a year out so the longer term term trend in my opinion is still bullish this short term trend here over the next couple of weeks could be a little dicey not saying anything real terrific to the downside but uh a little slap in the face to get everybody's attention and you know the market is this so quiet here everybody's getting really bored with it you know and and with the mccall and uh with the uh bull and japan starting to pinch and stuff uh you know that's time to be alert so we're probably gonna wake up one morning we're going to see the market down maybe a hundred points or a couple hundred points just uh put some interest back into the market but um and that's my view probably for the year out pull back here then then a rally starting the Thanksgiving or a little bit later that rallies to year in probably even through january so well i want to thank you for being on today uh this is tim ord from the ord dash oracle.com you can go to his website there and of course uh check out his books uh i want to thank you again tim we'll have you back on probably the first week of december i'll be gone for Thanksgiving so uh we'll probably have you back on that first week of december we'll see how that has all played out all right thank you for having me on you bet we'll be back in just a minute got lots of emails to answer if you're in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are 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you're up here at fairly light volumes applied materials kind of a long term play so harder to get this one right in the in that they sell equipment that's probably not going to make chips for another six months or three months or maybe even a year since they basically make the equipment that makes the chips if there's a big demand for ram or that kind of stuff doesn't mean you may have seen those sales come in last year for that kind of thing so harder but it just seems like this thing's up on very light volume of course he's this one's after the bell tonight the one that i find very intriguing is nvidia and that is this thing is got three or four actually five dojis in a row not a good sign when you're coming up to the top what i do know is that if you look at the i mean they're a video card business they do make some chips from other folks but that's kind of low margin stuff the the money that they make or is in video cards we'll call them the video card business although they do sell chips and graphic chips for the cell phone business smartphone business but the big money is in these video cards for gaming and machine learning as we said before intel is going to be getting into that business and february they're going to be starting to ship some products of their own that may make it a lot easier for vendors just not have to deal with amd and nvidia and to eventually putting all that stuff in a single chip and heading off nvidia and amd in the near future the downside i see about shorting nvidia is the same thing that i see in amd and that is that people are just shorting the living daylights out of these companies at the highs and that tends to make me think that they're going to run them no matter what after the bell now all last week nvidia had a short interest that was i'm going to say one out of four shares were shorted last week now it really didn't go up but it certainly wasn't able to go down and in the last couple of two couple of days the short interest did kind of drop into about the 18 percent range when we look at amd it was the most hated stock several days running with one day 40 percent of the shares being shorted now those numbers don't mean that the people went home short but it does mean that that short orders were entered for four out of every 10 stocks or shares that were traded that day and it's kind of hard to see that kind of massive shorting that doesn't end up getting spiked in a market that hasn't cracked quite yet again not uncommon to see a great deal of shorting of oh i wanted amd amd let's get that one but it's been this short interest that has driven these stocks to new highs you wanted about 130 million shares yesterday you got about 69 million shares in amd today you got about 53 million shares what you need is some kind of interday spike that shows that all the shorts have given up and then this is coming back and you don't really have that you know sign of strength is it broke out uh fundamentally you're looking at the uh the ability of intel to to go after at least part of the business uh that amd has in that video card business so is it going to be a great year next year for amd i think we're probably looking at the high watermark to me i'm looking or i did buy in in vda did buy some new envidia graphics cards but probably the most interesting thing is if there's a morse law for processors it's nowhere close to being hit in the video card business where a card that was a thousand dollars two years ago you can buy pretty much the same thing for about 250 bucks today so why video games continue to get more complex and higher resolution what you get is literally amazing for a quarter of the price that that same card and technology sold for just two years ago so morse law where everything drops in half every 18 months and doubles and capability i'm going to say is more like not double in capability maybe triples uh but for a 250 card now um you know it is just kind of amazing what you get much less buying the high end stuff that they have out today but again i think at some level there's a saturation point uh but the bigger thing to me is the long-term injection of intel into both envidia's and amd's grill come next year now the markets tend to look about six to nine months into the future and a lot have been pushed for intel now the one thing in amd does is have a fairly good business going after uh intel's consumer uh chip business but again we talk about where intel actually makes its money about five percent of its money is made from selling computers uh their chips and processors that go into consumers homes it is a small part of the business the margins that they make are in that server business that we already talked about with uh both uh well all three of the big web companies or not web companies uh cloud services companies saying that that has kind of hit a high i'm just thinking that there could be uh intel's probably going to hurt amd and intel the overall business uh and slowing for microsoft uh amazon web services and of course uh google's web services and even sales force uh in their web service i it just seems at some point generally after about two or three years of a huge run you end up with some kind of saturation point in the markets so i'm continuing to look at these as uh fundamentally we although we haven't had the kind of weakness that you would think but uh to me uh right now intel probably a $44 company $43 company i think this thing's just at a bigger trading range uh we got very well well we went within three cents of the previous high on intel from the april 17th high of uh 38 million shares got into it with 21 million shares just a couple of days ago so these things are not showing a lot of strength on this last move up i think that whole sector uh could be uh a long-term uh bear market uh for next year we'll take a look at it when we come back i'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at 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technology insider get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today basal Chapman has just announced a live 90-minute webinar he'll be conducting for subscribers to his daily trading newsletter the opening call which will be taking place tuesday november 19th from 5 till 6 30 p.m eastern time titled a comprehensive review of the Chapman wave techniques and market outlook ahead for 2020 this is a great time to sign up for a 30-day free trial to the opening call while gaining access to basal's live subscriber event taking place later this month with some stock picks up 15 to 30 percent this year alone basal will review many of the Chapman wave techniques that helped in their successful analysis as well as providing the sectors and stocks that he thinks will be of importance heading into 2020 for all the details check out the opening call on the front page of tfn dot com next on tfn i'll have to say that for options expiration it's uh it's like dirty water pretty opaque for tomorrow morning without finding some kind of a big surprise for amat and envidia tonight so i don't have anything that i want to do tonight for options expiration tomorrow we did end up closing a trade today in the in the path of lease resistance which was from last friday when we bought the y a and g which is the china bear funds we went through all those gartley patterns that look super extended especially in asia got a nice little reversal pattern down at the lows i got out of it today mostly because the tlt broke back into the trading range and that was half of it the other part is that we're back into this gap lower that should be fairly significant resistance to pop higher that goes back to the 11th of october yet about 600 000 shares today you're up on about 149 000 shares so as i say i you want to stick around in this game we probably have to decide that you know signals are telling you that maybe it's at least changing we may get a little bounce out of china in the next couple of days you know that i'm kind of looking for that pull back in the market i just can't really see much i do have one of the positions doing fairly well but again these are kind of short-term trades looking for the next big signal in the market to tell us what how the end of this year is going to come and end up but i don't see a lot of upside in this market either generally the surprises come to the downside when that summation index does turn down so we'll have to see maybe we get a little bit of it tonight maybe not uh but uh man time to pull in a few of the trades make a little money today feel a little bit better about ourselves and uh look forward to a better tomorrow in the meantime so when you can not when you have to and we will see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat time