 Mae'n fawr y bydd y dyfodol y maen nhw'n gweithio'r ystafell yn y buserau am yn y dyfodol y bydd. Dyfodol y bydd yn y buserau am y mae gennym. Felly mae'n gwneud o'r hoffa'r hoffa yn dweud. Mae'r 30 september yn ôl i'r byd mewn gwahodau a'r hoffa'r hoffa yn dweud. Yn gweithio'r hoffa'r hoffa'r hoffa y bydd y bydd. Mae'n gwneud hynny'n gweithio'r hoffa'r hoffa. It's so successes in the Netherlands? We've had some french data that's just hit the wires which's just bringing a little bit of risk off to the vibe this morning so we've just seen the DAX break and move below Friday's low point... and heading down and I mean our next level will be dDown here which actually is quite a nice one and that's Wednesday and Thursday's low down at $12 Three hundred and thirty three so the DAX and European equities more broadly under a bit of pressure ddyddai'n dweud y ffag storio am yr unrhyw i ymlwg iawn. Mae'n ddiweddianydd bwynt yn ddiweddol i'r pargyfliddos sydd ar gyfer dda'u naen, ond os ymhellwch, mae'r ddweud ymhellwch slyp chi'n ddwy i mewn i'r wahanol o ddweud ymhellwch chi'n ei bod ar â'r rhai wahanol efallai. Mae'r ddweud efallai'r ddweud eftan, o'r ddweud efallai'r ddweud hefyd. a'r cyfnodol a'r cyd-fawr yw'r ffordd. Felly oherwydd mae'n gweithio'r ffordd o'r ffordd, oedd mae'n gwneudio'r dyfodol o'r cyfnodol o'r cyfnodol. Rhaid i ddau'r rai ar y bryd yng Nghynt, a'r cyfnodol yn cael ei oedd yn ôl, a'n rhai a'r bwysig yn rhaid i'r cyfnodol. Rhaid i'r cyfnodol yn cael ei ddau. Mae'n rhaid i'r cyffredinol o'r cyffredinol. Ond nad oedd yn ôl i'r ffordd ymgyrch gwrtief gan ganddofn y Gremio. Let's have a look at the week ahead. Definitely another interesting week coming our way. And certainly lots of, as always, Brexit-related situations to be thinking about. We've got the ongoing aftermath of those attacks on the Saudi oil production facilities Felly, iawn cyfnod o'r cyfnod atwys, ac felly, gallwch wedi myfyrwch am amlwg a migrants, gallwch ddifrin ei ddalunio arall. Maen nhw wedi wir Theo Eurabiau, gan y syniad arall, llyth i mewn gwahanol fwy ym hyn ym mwyaf. Rydyn nhw'n gallu wneud ar fy fan hyn, yn rhoi cyffredinol ar gyfnod. Er ru fy mod, mae'n wneud ar gyfer yw'r cyfnod. Ac mae'r cymhwil ddata'r calender yw eraill a'r gweithio'r ddau a'r gwneud. Mae'r gyfnodd ledaeth yn gwneud ar ein FF General Assembly. A'r cyd-deithasol, ac mae'r cyd-deithasol yn gwneud yddech chi'n credu. Mae Boris yn ei gweithio'r gweithio mewn ddau cyd-deithasol. Mae'n Meirkel, Mae'n Macron. Mae'n gweithio'r Donald Trump yn gwneud. Ac that'll probably be discussing mainly Iran, I would've thought, so you've definitely got Brexit and the Saudi and Iran situation. Very much hot topics over in New York, so Boris got on the plane yesterday, and is over there so expect news flow. This is U. S. Times of course, so it'll be more afternoon, when you start to get little snippets of information that could well move markets on any of these topics. So, definitely the UN General Assembly is a key i'w gwaith y ffrind o'r dryfu ar gyfer, ondo yn gwneud. Fy ydych chi i'w amdannu ei gwirioneddau cael eu gwirioneddau. Fy i wnaeth y Cyfnodau Ysgrifennu yn ysgrifennu ein Llywodraeth Fyngor Ysgrifennu. Be'r liddyn ni i fynd i'w defnyddio ac ysgrifennu, ac mae ydych chi'n ei gwirioneddau ar gyfer y cyfryd mewn newid hyn o gwirioneddau i wneud ei wneud i'w gwirioneddau. two thirds of the way through the month we get these European PMI readings. The French figures have just hit the wires and have disappointed. I mean, here's the chart looking at the French manufacturing PMI. I mean, it came in at 51.3 but we had expected 51.2. You can see that July was disappointing. We dipped below 50 again. I mean, it's been pretty erratic. I have to say looking at this chart over the last 12 months, you know, normally see such volatility month to month here in this kind of reading. So that's one thing to note, but secondly, you know, the August reading, we lifted back to 51. It was like, wow, OK, all right. Maybe maybe things in Europe aren't as desperate as we thought, but we were looking for, you know, a figure in September to match August's reading. So as I said, expected at 51.2 and it's just dropped back. I mean, at least I guess the silver lining maybe if there is one is that at least is above 50, but still certainly disappointing. The services sector also delivered a worse than expected number. If I have a look at the chart for that, then one second, here we go. Services PMI was at 51.6. And what we had hoped was 53.2 would be in the offing and, you know, pretty much matching what had been actually a nice solid improving trend through 2019. We were expecting that improving trend to still be the situation, but unfortunately we've dropped off here. So that's definitely concerning. We generally speaking have a what you might call a recession fear in Europe. As we as we reach the end of quarter three, are we in technical recessions? Of course, you have the likes of Germany printing a negative GDP figure for quarter two. Are we going to see negative GDP GDP prints for quarter three? I mean, that's when you get a technical recession. You need two quarters in a row of negative GDP figures. So, yeah, certainly these French figures were not quite what the doctor ordered. But if I just quickly flick back because we're about to get some German figures, which, you know, certainly the grand scheme of things from Europe's point of view would be more important given that Germany is the largest economy. Certainly on the manufacturing side and seconds. We're going to get these German figures hit the wise now. So I'm just going to let these come down the microphone straight to you. Remember the DAX has been under pressure. It's testing Thursdays low. 41.4. 41.4 below the expected 44 services. Big miss on big miss on German manufacturing. We're three. It's just flicking out of the charts. 49.1 below the expected 51.5. Sartre euro dollar has seen a break below 110. Yeah. I mean, that's definitely. Wow. So we've just taken out that double bottom here on the DAX. Let me just turn that down. So, you know, really disappointing again on the German manufacturing side. It's such a core engine of their economic system, of course. So that figure came in at 41.4. We had expected 44. That's a. I mean, flick back to the chart very briefly. Another new low on what's been a pretty spectacular fallout. I mean, honestly, I've been trading for 18 years. I can't ever remember German manufacturing PMIs. Anywhere near 40, but quite shocking and really hammers home this point that Germany looks looks like they're in recession. And we're probably going to see confirmation of that when we do end up getting the quarter three GDP prints. But 41 41.4. Now on the services side, it was worse than expected, but at least above 50. So on services, they were 52.5. We'd expected 54.3. Let me quickly show you the chart for their services PMI. So it's quite a big drop off again. So look, bad numbers from France exacerbated by you would say even worse numbers from Germany here. The DAX was already on the downside anyway because of those French readings. But you would say that targeting that low point that we have back on the 17th now is probably the situation now. We've pulled back. We broke Wednesday, Thursday, double bottom. It's also S2. We broke that and that's now key resistance. What might be a nice sort of classic short entry and looking for a target at least I would say of that low point that we had from last week. On the flip side, if you've got stocks moving lower or bonds moving higher, so you've just seen the boom break up above Friday's top. So on the German bonds here, that was at 173.84. And if we just pull out a longer term period here, that kind of area on Friday really was that perhaps the more important level, which we've we've moved on upwards here off this data was at 173.65. And that was that key bottom that we had back mid September. But on the upside now, the standout kind of level is this one roughly here, which is that high point we had on the 12th of September. Before then, where we're testing almost now is that low that we have back on the 5th. Okay, so certainly buns had a steady slow drift north throughout last week, but now that's powering on off the back of these really bad PMI figures out of Germany. Look, and you can see the buns stepping up again there. Another little surge up through the top as we aim at testing that 5th of September low. Nice. Let me just get back to that DAX chart because that looked like a nail on nailed on classic short off that Wednesday, Thursday, double bottom and S2. We'll see how that plays out. But certainly the euro's going south as you'd expect. I told you about that level here from starter last week that had test. We've been testing that on Friday. That's gone now. That's gone in style here actually. We're 20 pips down through that already down through S1. Let's have a check further back to see the last time we were at these kind of levels and really you're looking back now at these. This point from back at the very start of September as well as that sort of flash spike to the downside we had on the 12th. So these are down at 110, 130, 110, 0, 3, 110, 13. So really the 110 handle more broadly. And when you look at a daily chart, you know, we obviously got below that a few weeks back. But when you're looking at the continuation, I should say here, but certainly on the December contract that almost like a double bottom and down around the 110 handles. So we've got room further to go on the downside here. But definitely definitely some disappointing figures here from two of Europe's powerhouses on the PMI front. All right. So good active start to the briefing. Some live data coming through. Let's have a look at the calendar again now. Just looking more broadly out of the week. I mentioned the G the UN General Assembly. That's definitely important. You got some Fed speak Evans and George and Kaplan talking out of the Fed on Wednesday. You've got Draghi making some comments on Thursday along with Carney, more Fed speakers. So and then more Fed speakers on Friday. You a lot of Fed speak through this week. Certainly the most important economic data arguably you could say we've already just had it. We'll get the EU as a whole printing their PMI figures at 9am. Okay. German iPhone data tomorrow is going to be closely watched, especially now after that really disappointing PMI figures. You got to be expecting some further bad news on German data tomorrow morning. You would have thought in terms of US data quiet a week normally the case. You know as we get to the final week of the month, but we'll be looking for some inflation related figures that are due out on Friday with core PC, but definitely I would say a negative tone set here for the week with regards to data. But also, you know that I'd pick out that UN General Assembly is the kind of big headline risk. So let's have a look. We'll get back to the charts in a second and have a look at some of the other markets. I know only really focused on the European stuff there with the DAX, the Euro and the Bund. But we'll look at oil. We'll look at US stocks. We'll have to look at gold and so on and cable in a minute. But if we just have a quick look at the headlines that have kind of been hitting the wires, what are you waking up to this morning? Johnson takes bid for Brexit deal to New York as clock runs down. So as I already mentioned, Boris is going to be having meetings on the sidelines with Macron and Merkel today. Tusk is also in town over in New York. So Donald Tusk will be getting in on the action. You'll remember that we had some a bit of a throwaway positive comment from Yuncker last week. Yuncker back to, you know, Yuncker does love a headline mines. You got to take his comments with a little bit of pinch of salt. But certainly he suggested that there may well be room to remove the backstop and maybe there's there's a deal. I mean, Boris has been his official line is he's cautiously optimistic that he can make further progress in New York this week towards a deal. He also said that don't expect a deal to be done in New York. No way. But you would say that probably Boris is pretending at least that things are moving closer towards the idea of some kind of deal. I mean, I'm looking at cable here because we've had powerful moves to the upside at the back end of last week as we got these certainly Yuncker's comments on Friday on up to the up through the 126th handle, which had been such a key barrier on on on the Thursday. So we broke up through there on the Friday, but it all kind of came sharply back lower. And this morning, you know, that double bottom that we had back here on Wednesday and Thursday has just been taken out. This is a little bit of a sympathy move. I would say right now with regards to, you know, it's the euro dollar that's the driver here off the back of this bad European data. You're just getting a bit of a correlation move, but technically this is important for cable as we break through that double bottom and S1 is next up in terms of support. But ultimately, I guess, you know, you got that low from back here at the start of last week and we had the low back at 124.37. So the other obviously key thing today probably will get the ruling from the Supreme Court, where the prorogatio has been is it legal? Is it not legal? I would say certainly at the start of last week, the government were pretty confident that the Supreme Court remember what happened here? You have the English Supreme Court sit and rule that it was legal yet then have the Scottish Supreme Court saying the opposite that it was illegal. So now it's gone to the UK wide Supreme Court and at the start of last week, the government were confident that that court would say, look, this is not a legal matter. This is a political situation. It's not nothing to do with us. But I'd say as the week went on last week, probably the government's confidence waned and by the time we got to the end of last week, you know, perhaps they weren't quite as confident and that the Supreme Court will find out today. I mean, at the timings of this, I'll have to not quite entirely sure, but you get the schools of thought here if they do rule that it is illegal. So then Parliament would reconvene, but then you've had news that maybe Boris will just prorogate Parliament again, but if you could argue it could be pan positive if the Supreme Court announced it's illegal, of course, because that allows Parliament back into session, which you could say then opens the door for the remain MPs to have more time to try and disrupt Boris's sort of no deal strategy. But then you could argue the no deal threat is starting to work. Is it? I don't know, but is it starting to work with regards to the EU softening a little bit? I guess we'll find out properly today when Macron and Merkel have had a chat with Boris. And is there any chance? And obviously we've got the situation where Ireland, as I flick over, I'll talk about Ireland and then the headline that I'm showing now if I go and show you my other screenshot. But you know, talk that Ireland may well become this sort of economic unit where firstly you might have agricultural alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. And maybe there's talk that well, why can't you introduce sort of manufactured goods into that equation and Boris said over the weekend? Well, yeah, maybe. So I don't know, maybe there's maybe Boris is moving towards the idea that we can have some kind of Irish alignment, but then what do you do about a border checks? And is there a border checks in the Irish Sea? And so obviously we're still a long way off. And that's the point to make, I would suggest. And so even though we've had some small movement towards the idea that maybe a deal could be on the cards, there are a long way off and there ain't much time to go. One thing on Europe's side, you've had a little bit of pressure being put onto the European politicians from some of the giant European car manufacturers who are saying they would be very negatively hit by a no deal. Certainly the German car manufacturers are very reliant on the UK as an export market. So that's kind of one of the headlines rearing its head this morning as well. So with regards to cable, let's see. We've got the Supreme Court hearing one, but then separately, very much separately, you've got Boris meeting Macron and Merkel. And so you could well see some headline risk today and maybe more this afternoon, I would suggest, and we'll see how this plays out. But for now you've got cable breaking that double bottom from Wednesday and Thursday. Keep your arm that Monday low from last week as we track sideways. Now let's, I'm just conscious of time here. So let's move on a little bit. What else is happening? So obviously we've still got this oil-related situation and I'm just going to flip down and show you these bullet points just talking about the progress and you know, are Saudi going to get oil back online quickly? I was just saying I was in Saudi Arabia last week and I was just going to mention that I do feel the Western press are reporting this in a very different way. Firstly, the Western press love a bit of sensationalisation of course. So I'd say it's been sensationalised a little bit. What most of us here in the West don't realise is that there's drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities literally all the time. They have so many drone attacks. It's just that almost all of them have failed. They're a little bit kind of botched jobs and not particularly well-organised and therefore fairly inaccurate and fail to inflict much damage. Now for sure, this drone attack, well what is it 10 days ago now, definitely hit the mark. So even though there are lots of drone attacks, this one definitely stands out as being uber successful if you're thinking from the point of view of the people behind the attacks and who are behind the attacks. Well, you've got actually one thing on Boris now is meeting Trump tomorrow and Boris certainly happy to step up the rhetoric and in blaming Iran and also step up the offer for the UK to help the US in kind of some kind of joint mission to protect Saudi oil and whether that's troops on the ground, I'd probably doubt it at this point, but it's certainly the use of British surveillance and intelligence situations. So Boris and Donald Trump will be talking tomorrow and certainly Iran and oil and Saudi will be on the agenda if we flick and have a look at the oil chart. So my point being that actually they get these drone attacks all the time. Obviously Saudi are trying to have an Aramco IPO. So this news of attacks doesn't really get out. They like to keep this under wraps for obvious reasons, but the frequency of these attacks are quite high. So it's not particularly unusual. There was an attack. It's just the damage that was inflicted. Certainly the energy minister has been confident that they'd get oil back online pretty quickly. I'd say that confidence hasn't quite come into evidence in that it's taking a bit longer than their very confident estimates of getting oil back online, which is why oil is still up around the top end of the sort of $50 spectrum. We're not above 60. I mean, 60 is obviously a key price point here when we're thinking about this week. And certainly the last few days of last week, we spent in a fairly tight range. We've been up to test the top of that. So the tight range, I'd say of the consolidation phase would be between these two rectangles. So 57, 58 on the downside, that was the 18th of September low. And then the 19th of September high was at 59, 50. So you've got this $1 range here. 57, sorry, $2 range, 57 and a half to 59 and a half. And we tested that overnight. We're kind of just drifting back into the middle of that range right now. So this is your consolidation range. Yes, oil is still a lot higher than it was pre-attacks. But then it's actually no, we're near as high as the, let's say the attack spike high. And if you put a kind of fib series on this, the problem you've got as a trader here is that we're kind of in the middle, the 50% fib of the range pre-drone attack to drone attract spike high. The 50 fib is just above the 59 handle. So the consolidation point back in the last week is around this 50% area. It just remains to be seen. A, what might the US and the UK say about helping protect Saudi oil reserves and obviously be probably more importantly, what's the progress with Saudi getting things back online? I'd say, well, we'll have to wait and see from Saudi. But certainly in my view, you're probably going to see things get back online. We might drift, I'd say, what's really important would be 57, 58, any test of that, any break of that. You've got a pretty big gap here that still needs to get filled. I'd say any break of 57, 58, you're probably going to see a move down towards the 56 dollar handle reasonably quickly. But obviously listening out for more news flow as we go through the week. Okay, other stuff on the headlines. We've got stuff like, well, if we just go to, well, actually, let's talk about Labour. There's the Labour Party Conference. You've got Party Conference season, of course. Labour in Brighton, you've got the Conservatives next week. And Labour, nothing short of a shambolic disastrous beginning. I love this picture in the FT here. I'm supporting unity over division is the one of the kind of unite sort of slogans here. But unity is the last word you would use to describe the beginning of the Labour Party Conference. Massive divisions internally on the Labour Party stance on Brexit. And this is just causing havoc. You have the deputy leader almost trying to get being ousted over the weekend. That coup failed. And it's just been a shambolic disaster. So just as, you know, you could say in terms of the general election idea and when an election comes, obviously we're not quite sure, but you would have thought it's nailed on for 2019 at some point. Whether it's after the 31st of October or not, we shall see, but most likely in November. But this is just a disastrous period of time for Labour. And not only are they in danger of handing the Conservatives a much increased majority. I mean, it's got so bad. They need to be looking over their shoulder now at the Lib Dems. And dare I say, they're at risk of becoming only the third party when the election results come in. So certainly shambolic, but Corbyn digging in his heels for sure. He says he's fresh and energised for the general election campaign. But yeah, that kind of party conference has been a disaster. Other stuff, I don't know, UK related stuff. Thomas Cook has gone under probably the least surprising headline of the morning. But let me finish by looking at the charts. Remember, EU data hitting the wires in 10 minutes, but we've already had the German and the French manufacturing figures that were bad news. So you're going to see the same when European figures hit the wires. But let's just check in. I guess I'm talking about gold. Let's have a quick look at gold whilst we had this risk off vibe this morning. Gold has been up there actually since the European data. Gold has not added to its upside. But this morning we did break up above Friday's high. Let me get my... So Friday's high was here up at 15.24.60. So we did move up above there in the early hours overnight and we drifted back lower, tested support. I saw Michael made a really good call at 8.06 a.m. Gold, low of the day and pivot. Michael, I hope you took on that trade. Definitely really nice set up. And you've obviously the German figures played into your hands there. I'd say the higher the day being first target as you know, now that we kind of negotiate well I guess we stalled a little bit by Friday's high but higher the day probably first target. What was good about the low of today was also the fact that it was that key top that we had back on Wednesday just adding more support in around that sort of 15-19 area. So certainly Gold on the front foot this morning off the back of those data and I definitely think the key support is that Wednesday high. And as a platform it's worked really well so far but if we look further out for Gold and look back over the last few weeks and look at September as a whole then definitely more room to move higher as well depending on headline flow of course as we go through the week. But you mark up these kind of key levels and certainly on the downside I mentioned that Wednesday high and the key thing about that it was also the high on the 13th of September so 15-19 really important. Big double bottom down at 14-92 area that was the 10th and the 18th of September it's the double bottom for the month. So we've been quite sideways over the last few weeks you would say. You know obviously through the summer we had a huge movement to the upside as we had the likes of the US-China trade situation deteriorating. Obviously that's turned maybe slightly more to the positive you could argue but it's been a bit quiet on that. We'll see if we get any commentary and developments on that as we go through this week. Obviously then Boris being quite aggressive as he entered Parliament but then again that's kind of softened a little bit as in the last few days it's been more about Boris making progress on actually doing a deal rather than Boris you know trying to chop the legs out of Parliament in order to try and force a no deal Brexit on Halloween. So certainly gold is up at the top end of the trend that we've seen through the summer but certainly more shorter term looking to try and push on again this morning off the back of this worse and expected European data. Okay so I'm going to leave it there. That's it for the briefing this morning and I'll leave you by just kind of flashing up the highlights for the week ahead. Definitely a busy one but certainly that EU sorry UN General Assembly is going to be the key headline risk. So as we kind of get towards midday and beyond and into this afternoon when the US side of things wake up you need to be on the ball listening out for any kind of headlines. All right so that's it for today. Enjoy today. Enjoy the weekend. Thanks very much.