 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Some top-tier college football teams are being put to the test this weekend with some high-level matchups across college football We are here today to break down those matchups outline betting markets for those games where ads Model sees value and get you ready for week five across college football This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network in our Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Wednesday by Dr. Ed Fang you can find his work at the power bank comm and check him out on Twitter at the power rank Ed Week five is coming at us. How you doing today? I'm doing great. It was it was a fun last Saturday Especially with the way it closed out with the house. They had a Notre Dame It doesn't really get any better than that in terms of sports and excitement and yeah Hopefully we can have another great week Yeah, go from there. And that was a very ed game So we talked a lot about previously how you like those low scoring defensive games when it's because of good defense And it seems like it's a lot like we discussed last week where Ohio State's defense is playing a lot better than they have in the past They played well there with Notre Dame stepped up, too. So I feel like that game was kind of just right up your alley Yeah, I mean it was up my alley in so many ways in a weird way I think you guys all know I live in Ann Arbor and I'm a Michigan fan and have become the biggest A pot Ohio State apologist over the last two years, which is just very strange and I continued to do it I don't know. It's just my job as an analyst. It's it's it you have to forget about who you're a fan of. I Think Ohio State's really good. I think But I mean, you know, I'm not sure necessarily the numbers really Like shown out or anything about that but man, you know, he stepped back there and he's not CJ Stroud and he's not Bryce young But he drops back and he can hit those medium passes and he's got the best set of wide receivers in college football So I don't really see any reason to doubt this kid You know results, you know, even if even if they don't like, you know, push it in over the goal line against ten guys Like I think I think I saw a lot from him. Yeah, actually tough test there, too In that environment being on the road there, obviously there were a decent number of Ohio State fans of that game But still a tough spot to be in for your first like high level start like that So pretty impressive showing where to talk about the top end of the nation for this week We're gonna talk about the Georgia games they take on Auburn, Texas versus Kansas But also some Pac-12 teams making some noise early on in 2023 all that coming up here in just one second First day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts our preview of Thursday night between the Lions and the Packers coming up later on Wednesday or early Thursday via Tom Vecchio prime Tom Tom breaking down that game I gave my first look at week four NFL spreads on yesterday's show if we talk some Futures with Ryan Williams all those right here in the covering the spread podcast feed all the daily shows were up on the YouTube page as well and all these shows on fandal TV plus to get fandal TV plus go to fandal comm Slash watch and log in with your fandal account to string up an Adams live or watch covering the spread the solo shot the heat check All right there You can also find a fandal TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku devices Snap into action this NFL season with fandal America's number one sportsbook right now new customers Get $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a $5 bet That's $200 in bonus bets win or lose if you've been thinking about joining fandal There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There's a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more so visit fandal comm and kickoff the NFL season Fandal official partner out the NFL must be 21 plus and present in select states Fandal is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC first online real-money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is non-letrable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1,800 gambler Or visit fandal.com slash rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1,800 next step or text next head to 5334 to in Arizona 1-888-789-7777 Or visit ccpg.org such chat Connecticut 1,809 with it in Indiana 105 to 240 700 visit ksgamblinghealth.com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1-800 gambler net in West Virginia call 1-805-2-2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here was a gambling helpline ma.org or call you 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 247 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8 open Y or text open Y in New York Now I had we knew going into this year that Georgia, Michigan, Ohio state would all be very good teams and that's played out for sure but pack 12 Going down swinging in 2023 Washington is looking good USC Oregon They're all 4-0 so far and they've done it against in pretty impressive fashion so Looking at at the ceiling of those teams because it requires a ceiling to make a run for a national championship Do you think any of those three pack 12 teams have the ceiling to make a run at actually winning the whole championship? Jim before we talk about the pack 12. I gotta I gotta say that I don't actually really believe that Georgia, Michigan Ohio state have have been all that great Um, you know, Georgia has dropped almost nine points in my ratings since the beginning of the season We'll talk about them a little bit more later in the show Michigan can't really break explosive plays in the ground game. Uh, like they could last year I'm not sure that defense is all that great. Uh, which we'll talk about a little bit more on the show as well I guess we already talked about Ohio state Suffice to say, I mean, I have Georgia as the best team in the nation in my member numbers at about 21 and a half points Last year, there were three teams that were well clear of that rating The rating being how good you are compared to an average FBS team So I really think the narrative is that most of the top teams suck compared to where they've been in the past And I think this is an interesting year to see You know who can break through and so you asked. Well, can any of the the pack 12 teams break through? I think the simple answer is no because they all play each other So, I mean, it's going to be an incredible pack 12 slate Later in the year simply because USC had both Oregon and Washington on their schedule Um, I mean, I think you can poke holes at uh, and all these teams, you know I mean USC let Arizona state score 28 points on them. I mean, this was a team that we knew Uh Look Oregon look great, but uh, my numbers say they can't stop the run their success rate Adjusted for opponent in rushing success rate on defense is terrible. So maybe that small sample size They clearly got a pretty good result Against Colorado. I was a little bit bummed that that game was such a snoozer, but And then Washington, you know, I'm not not completely sure that Washington's defense is good enough They're clearly lighting it up on the scoreboard and I think that's a lot of fun So I think the one answer is no that these teams can't do it But the other answer is well Maybe because when you look at the history of college football and who wins National championships, um, except for the last two years with Stetson Bennett You're you're legitimately talking about a team that has a quarterback that's going to get picked first in the NFL draft Certainly have that in USC and Caleb Williams. I think he is going to be number one I I haven't looked at any mock drafts, but I I got if you don't like you're good rapidly Moving up those ranks, man is really nice to have three elite receivers come back and and you know Play together for the second year straight. So you certainly have a quarterback play I'm not a huge fan of bow nicks, but man Uh, I I still feel like that I'm putting some of the the Auburn bow nicks on him I think he's been, you know, he's been pretty good numbers wise At or again, I think, you know, they played exceptionally well against Colorado. We're not going to see that every week with them But yes, so they have the quarterback play, uh, and maybe maybe that pushes them over the edge And it's it's for all three teams. They have the quarterback play and also like you said It seems like things are a bit more wide open this year because Georgia has not been Quite as good as we thought they may be coming into this year. So The door is at least somewhat a jar for someone to step in. Do you think that's uh advantage to michigan? Like are they the prime contender to step in and fill the void that Georgia hasn't vacated but is like They're opening the door crack a little bit wider than it was before Who do you think steps in to fill that void to top the top of nature? For sure. I think it's half open really, uh, I still think Georgia is the team to beat. Um I don't know. I mean, I I really haven't been overly impressed with with michigan I think the expectations that people had coming in the season number two in the preseason ap poll They really haven't been there. They they kind of drop a little bit my ratings every week. Uh, they really haven't, um I don't know they haven't been impressive You know, I made the point in the beginning the reason that the defense was, you know, just good enough last year They look Kind of just good enough this year. Uh, it's not a unit that, uh, you know, it's been really lights out It's nice to jj. McCarthy's been playing. Oh, I think he's taking his game to the next level passing game has been better Well, like I said, they can't break explosive plays on the ground this year for whatever reason Uh, I think the reason is that explosive plays are just kind of random And I mean, I was looking at some of the offensive pff offensive line grades This year versus last year for michigan. They look similar. Um, I'm not a huge I haven't been really looking at pff grades for for college football for too long. I get it. I have a better sense for What that means, you know, I mean, I've been looking at them for years for carpet grades for corners So, uh in the f l But it's kind of nice my pff prescription subscription now May access to all the college football data. So that's super nice. So I've been kind of getting into that a little bit more Um, anyways, I don't know. We'll see. I'm not sure michigan's that team. Um, so It'll make things more fun though at least and we'll definitely take that for sure. All right Let's talk about uh, we'll talk about georgia in a second with their game against auburn But let's start things off here by talking about a big battle In texas. Kansas is going there undefeated so far They're facing texas and right now this spread is 16 and a half that is down from 17 yesterday at fangirl sports book total Is 61 and a half net you were on kansas last week and They played great in the second half covered a half point spread at home And they came through but now they're on the road big underdogs. So Do you have faith kansas can keep this thing this thing close or getting the market is spot on with this one Yeah, we'll see. I mean two years ago, kansas beat texas and and I remember watching that game and thinking man What is this sarka doing? Two years have passed and I think both these programs have really been elevated since then You know, kansas is kind of who we thought they were uh, this preseason their offense is awesome Their second when I look at adjusted success rate and there's really no reason to believe that's a fluke They were an awesome offense last year as well And defense is not particularly good. I haven't 63rd in adjusted success rate. That's kind of where we expected them That was the side that that we would question Texas really had a great showing so far in terms of the results The defense has been phenomenal the tops of the nation In my numbers the offense is 61st, which is uh, you know, higher than they were a week ago Which I was sure was kind of a small sample size artifact. They're up to 61st Still seems a little low for the talent that they have And I expect that number to kind of go up as we get more data You know, my numbers have uh texas by about 14 and a half point. I honestly don't really see any reason not to take swing Oh, it's it's obviously I feel like it's a bet that Can certainly lose, right? You know, you can have a game where where texas is going to upgrade on both sides of the ball and maybe kansas has a Bed game on offense, uh, but the numbers like it. I do think there's a little bit of value here on the road dog And I think the reassuring thing from that perspective is that Kansas has an offense that can score when they're trailing. I know that's kind of my concern. Usually ed is Can this team make up ground if they fall behind or will it be kind of a cascading effect where they fall down And then can't claw the way back But I think with kansas and that offense we can probably have faith that if they do fall down early They can still at least make that game somewhat competitive. Is that factor in for you in being okay with a larger spread here? yeah, I mean I Think there's there's the opportunity for backdoor covers here. Uh, if things get out of hand, uh, texas defense like I mentioned and looks really good in the number so far, but um, you know, like I said, it's like it's not a game I love But I I actually just don't see any reason to go against my numbers here You know, I have this about two touchdowns seems a little bit big at 16 and a half Okay, so ed likes kansas plus 16 and a half, which is minus 108 at vandal sports book for that one Let's talk now about the number one team ed was discussing before that is the georgia bulldogs and this weekend Going to auburn obviously this matchup not as fun as it would have been had auburn not put up a stinker last week Uh, but right now georgia 14 and a half point favorite total in this game is 46 and a half And obviously auburn coming off a pretty rough loss to texas a and m Hosting the number one team in the nation now ed, but the spread is 14 and a half They're at home and it's a pretty low total relative to that spread So what is your view of this game georgia versus auburn? Yeah, I mean, I actually really haven't seen georgia play. Um, Clearly the results haven't been up to expectations for for what we've expected for them When I look at some of my just the numbers they're Dense and 26 and which is not what we expect of georgia, but also not awful either And you know georgia is georgia is georgia I mean, I think you know, there was like a team two years ago that We'd have some question marks because they haven't won a national title and now they've won two So we kind of give them the benefit of the doubt um, you know on auburn is kind of a different story It's hue freezes first year there and um Yeah, you know, it's it's it's not looking good. You know, they lost 27 to 10 last week against texas a&m and The years down they had was on defense they brought in patent thorn the quarterback from michigan state and uh, you know He didn't take all the snaps last week. It looks like he's gonna start again this week Uh, a huge amount of transfer number of transfers that he was brought in in his first year None of the numbers look particularly good So, I mean I have this game With georgia as an 11 point favorite I have no interest in betting auburn. I think there's just too many issues with this team in its first year There's no stability at the quarterback position There's nothing except for maybe the secondary in the past defense that you can say with auburn. Hey, they're good And you're playing the best team in nation still Is uh, this is a definite pass for me Yeah, so even though it's a bigger value by your model It just kind of lack of faith in the auburn versus kansas um You have faith in them. So I think it makes sense why you would be Okay passing on this one despite the fact you're okay taking kansas. I do the exact same thing So uh fully on board of that approach in general despite the fact you do see value in auburn based on the numbers Let's finish up here by talking about noter dame at duke and right now Noter dame is a five and a half point favorite on the road for this game total in this game Is not too shabby a 51 and a half right now at fandall sportsbook and obviously noted name Tough losses past weekend against ohio state But duke is taking care of business against inferior teams ever since that big win over clemson in week one So how does duke measure up against a very tough foe in noter dame here? Well duke really ain't played nobody I know they had clemson at the beginning of the year But that was a really freaky game where turnovers are really the biggest Factor in that game. I was looking back at my numbers. I only adjusted duke up about a point after that game and uh, you know Sorry about your northwest wildcats, but the schedule really hasn't been that tough for them since you know, um, so Yeah, you know I mean you look at mike elco in a second year and they had a great nine and four year last year But lots of turnover luck I was looking at my numbers last year And they were about a little bit only slightly better than fbs average when I looked at all my adjusted quantities For uh, just the 2022 season. So um any underlying metrics, they were not really a nine and four team They have been better on both sides of the ball this year, but You know, it's still not a team that I think is at an elite level You know noted aim Are we getting a little bit of a discount here because of what happened last week, right? You know, do they put 11 guys on the field and get that win? You know, what is this spread? Uh, I'm actually making this Notre Dame by eight. Um, you know, I think this Notre Dame's team is pretty good You know the 15th on offense of my justice success rate, uh, 35th on defense I think there's enough talent on the defensive side of the ball and certainly, uh, coach marcus freeman is a defensive guy Uh, it really does help to put 11 guys out on the field though Uh, you know, I mean, I think the only reason you would not bet this is you know that It's a road favorite, uh here Maybe there's a little bit let down after last week. I don't know. My numbers have eight I do think there's a little bit of value under the game here. Is it too much? Yeah, and it's important to keep in mind too like your numbers know that they're on the road So it's not as if like the road favorite thing should be a massive concern because it's not something that's like not accounted for already in the model Right and I'm I'm pretty sure I have this as the bigger home field advantage because it's kind of a conference game But it's really not a conference Kind of situation for Notre Dame Oh, that's interesting. I really should put usd and stanford in Notre Dame's conference, right? Because they go there Every other year. I don't have that yet. I might have to adjust that. Anyway, um, yeah Yeah, that's certainly accounted for. Um, I mean, I think the reason my numbers like Notre Dame is that they just haven't really moved on Duke since the beginning of the year right and they've taken care of business against bad teams, which is important too, but Again, your numbers know that and still have not and they still have not moved like your numbers know that they still have not moved I think that's an important thing to note as well Okay, so Ed is liking Kansas plus 16 and a half and Notre Dame minus five and a half Which is minus 115 right now at fan dual sports book A lot of other games this week on tap ed. Where else do you see value for week number five in college football? Right. I mean, I think the one last game that I really want to talk about is this michigan nebraska game and There is this total at 39 and a half is pretty interesting uh So nebraska, it doesn't look like jeff simms is playing anymore at the quarterback position That's it's the backup or whoever was the backup at the beginning of the year that's been playing He looks like another guy. Uh, that is is running the ball Nebraska's down their top two running backs Um, the weather is interesting in this game. It's supposed to be High 80s with 18 mile per hour winds, which is not exactly a combination that that you see a lot and Yeah, so michigan should win this game. They should win it comfortably, but Uh, a total of 39 and a half just seems way too small for me I have this closer to 50 and I don't think 50 should be the number because there are some situations in terms of injuries In terms of the wind Um You know, maybe it's the wind that that kind of slows down that michigan passing attack that has been I think a lot better than last year 39 and a half seems kind of insanely small to me. Um, I think there's a little bit of value here in the over And it kind of goes back to what you were discussing before michigan is not busted off the long run so far But there could be a lot of randomness in big plays Maybe if they were due for negative aggression last year, they could be due for positive aggression in that department this year Especially looking at the pff blocking numbers you were alluding to if they're blocking the blocking pretty well still Um got a lot of the same personnel back I feel like you could expect them to run the ball better going forward and get bigger plays Which could help account for why this number is so low because they have not done that yet And that could also help them if the wind does wind up being as bad as projected on saturday Yeah, we shall see too, you know and like, you know, I have let's see I have the spread of this like 14 15 So i'm pretty close to the number, but like if you really think this total is going to be that small and the spread's that high There there there's it just seems like there's a way to bet this with with value Uh, i'm going to take the i'm going to take over 39 and a half because that just seems too small Even given the circumstances right that number right now fangirls sportsbook over 39 and a half is minus 105 for michigan and nebraska That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread But as always ed is back with us once again tomorrow for nfl week number four preview breaking down This week's biggest games in the nfl to get that as it is posted. Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcast you can also find us on the fandal youtube page and fanduel tv plus edit people are looking for Your numbers looking for a five nugget saturday. It's on it for your email newsletter. Where can they do all that? Yeah, you can find everything I do at thepowerank.com five nugget saturday is I think what most people come by for It's my curated list of sports betting tips and analytics every saturday at 10 a.m Sign up for that at thepowerank.com All right, you can find out on twitter at the power rank i am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow at fanduel research at fanduel research want to thank you all for tuning in for today We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. This has been covering the spread right here on the fanduel podcast network