 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into covering the spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcasts Network and numberfire.com. Where today we're bringing on John Sheeran because we needed someone who could wear 15,000 hats at once. And John, very capable of doing that, the director of trading a FanDual sports book. We're gonna talk NBA and NHL playoffs, the difficulties of bookmaking for changing circumstances with fans and stuff like that. And of course, John's a big horse racing guy. So we're gonna talk some Belmont at the end as well. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Dr. Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com and Ed, NBA playoffs in full swing. We got changes with the Celtics, with their management all up in flames. We got the Suns Lakers series with Anthony Daviser. CP3 maybe not a full health. It's a very interesting time to be a sports fan. And I say interesting on purpose because I can't say it's fun because it's a lot of weird stuff going on. Just a lot of stuff at play right now. Yeah, there's certainly a lot of stuff at play. I've actually taken kind of an interest in the this Lakers Suns series for many reasons. Not to mention the future I have on the Lakers because of Drew Dinzik the other week. So, yeah, a lot of interesting things going on. I'll be talking about that a little bit later in covering the future. But yeah, I think some of these series are kind of easy when everyone's healthy and you're bouncing back between two evenly matched teams, going back and forth between home courts. Like, we're seeing a couple of those series in terms of Atlanta and New York and Denver and Portland and the spreads are kind of boring, right? Not so in Lakers Suns. No, it's been see something back and forth for legitimate reasons like it should be doing so. We're gonna talk to John Sheeran about setting those prices for that series, how things, where things stand right now, about the NBA playoffs in general, about home court, all that stuff. And of course, no better person to discuss than John Sheeran. The director of trading at Fangirl Sports but you can find him on Twitter at Jay Sheeran 1981. I also wanna remind you, make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. We are here once every week during the football off season, back again next week, potentially later in the week. So make sure you are subscribed to get that podcast right as it goes into your feeds, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Podcasts. No matter where you listen, you can find us there. Before we get to John though, gotta go back to the last week. We talked some hockey, we talked some NASCAR heading into last week's weekend. Covering the past. Last week, we had Dom Lusigin on to talk about the NHL playoffs. You can find him at The Athletic and on Twitter at Dom Lusigin. We talked about the avalanches Stanley cup odds. At the time we talked to Dom, they were plus 270. They're now down to plus 150. So hopefully you got on when Dom talked about them last week. We also discussed some individual games that night on Wednesday. Dom was on the money line for Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Tampa Bay. And Tampa Bay and Minnesota both won, I believe via shutout. Tampa Bay was minus 145 in the money line. Minnesota was plus 19. Pittsburgh lost. But as long as you had Tampa Bay and Minnesota, still a profitable day if you decide to pull the trigger and listen to Dom there. I had NASCAR for the Coca-Cola 600. I had Matt DiBenedetto to finish top 10 at plus 225. And a William Byron outright at plus 1600. The DiBenedetto won for whatever reason just never had a chance. It was weird. He was just slow to start the race. Never was able to recover, finished 18th. So that one was weird. Byron I do feel good about though. He closed at 12 to one. So good closing value. He was fast in practice and qualifying as expected. He ran up front the entire night. He had a third place average running position which is actually even better than what he had when he won in Homestead. He just couldn't quite overcome his teammate Kyle Larson. Larson led 327 out of 400 laps. Byron did pass him briefly in the third stage but couldn't make that one stick. But if you told me that someone I bet at 16 to one would close at 12 to one and have a third place average running position, I'd be ecstatic. I'd feel very good about that. So even though it didn't hit, I feel good about the process behind that one for William Byron. Byron's number this week in Sonoma pretty short. So I won't be going back there but we'll talk more about Sonoma later on. Larson talked to John Sheeran about a bevy of topics in just one second. But first the Belmont Steaks is coming up this weekend and FanDuel Racing is helping you get in on the action. FanDuel will match your first deposit dollar for dollar up to 50 bucks when you open a new racing account. That is free money you can use to turn any race day into payday. There is no promo code needed just download the FanDuel Racing app, make your first deposit and you are off to the races. The app is super easy to use and most pads occur in a matter of minutes. Start building your bankroll today and be ready for race day on Saturday. Download the FanDuel Racing app, make your first deposit and get up to 50 bucks free on FanDuel, go to racing.fanduel.com for more details. We'll talk about the Belmont, get a pick from John Sheeran, find him on Twitter at Jay Sheeran1981. He is of course the director of training at FanDuel Sportsbook. We'll talk some NBA and NHL and of course the Belmont with John. Covering the present. Let's bring John Sheeran into covering the spread once again to talk a whole lot of different topics. We got NBA and NHL playoffs. We got some horse racing because John of course well versed in horse racing and gave us our intro to horse racing a year ago here on covering the spread. So John, busy time of year for you. How are you doing today? Very well, Jim. Yeah, it's crazy time right now not just the ongoing sports and the playoffs obviously in the NBA and the NHL but regular season MLB and trying to get ready for college and for NFL season. I believe I saw yesterday a hundred days. So 99 days from today at the start of the NFL season and it doesn't be long coming around. So busy but exciting time. 100 day thing is daunting. Hey John, is there any time that's busier or less busy for you between like now even though there's no football which is probably your biggest handle but there's obviously a lot of stuff going on in daily sports. Is there a busier or less busier time from your perspective? I mean, in theory on paper this should be our kind of getting into our quieter time when particularly once we get the pole season down to the last few games and then obviously it's just kind of trundle along with the MLB season but the way the business has been and the way the product development initiatives that we're on delivering new models for new sports that we're excited about that kind of has taken up all of the quiet time so I don't think there is any more quiet times to be honest. Yeah, that's definitely what it seems like in this day and age. Well, the tough part of that John is you're a big horse racing guy. I weren't talking about the Belmont later on but like have you found time to still get your like your side hustle of some horse racing action in or have you been too busy with NBA and NHL stuff to really dive into the more recreational stuff for you with horse racing? Yeah, it's been difficult to keep across it. Obviously try and keep across the big races and particularly the three year olds as they progress through their qualifiers and get onto the triple crown managed to get to the preepness which was fun, a Pimlico and hopefully get to Belmont on Saturday. So I'm doing enough, don't feel sorry for me but it's been difficult to kind of keep my eye on the horses the way I would like to for sure. Absolutely, well, we'll talk about the Belmont here in just a bit but first do you wanna talk to you about some of the stuff for you as someone who's helping set these lines and get stuff ready because obviously there's been an evolution over the past couple of months we've had vaccine rollouts, increased fans as a result of that and that obviously plays a big dynamic especially as we had transitioned now into the post season. So I wanna ask you what that process was like and trying to keep up as a sports book as we saw capacity is increasing especially I think for basketball more so than other stuff what was it like for you trying to set lines when things were changing so much with something that does matter quite a bit? Yeah, I mean, it's funny like you say at the start of the pandemic the conversation was the other way what is the impact now of no fans and look, we're all aware of the continual trend and the drop in the value of home field or home court advantage in all pro sports we see it now with NBA with the reviews the officials, I think they just do a much better job than they've ever done before but that said, I think for me watching Nate McMillan in Madison Square Garden on the broadcast when he actually said I'm struggling to hear you I'm struggling for you guys to hear me when I'm given directions I think that was probably the point where it resonated the most that actually we probably need to start adjusting and considering the advantage and I think look, it varies by every arena we know that already and I think Madison Square Garden has been a good example of how the fans can actually help their team and obviously impact the spread as a result so it's a continual work in progress for us it's subjective as we all know particularly in this scenario when we don't really know the advantage or necessarily the amount of people that are going to be in some of the arenas and some are more noisy than others as we said so yeah, tough one to track but look, don't feel sorry for us I think the betters have the same problem pose Well, I'm curious about the how it actually went down for you with the MSG game specifically because that was the one where for me too you kind of notice the impact of the crowd do you have like a meeting with other people at Fandall Sportsbook and actually talk about okay, how do we adjust for that? What's kind of the process for you in deciding how much you want to change things? Yeah, I mean we look at the historic and the notes and the numbers that we have the hard facts that tell us exactly what we rate that home court to be worth and then there's obviously a multiplier for situations right, they hadn't won a game for eight years in the post-season, you know they're begging for blood particularly that of Trey Young so I think there's just new on situation here that means you just have to rely on the experience that as a team we all have and you know, the head NBA trader those guys have got so many years of experience so many games under their belt that we've a lot of trust in them that they'll get a good feel for it even if the number doesn't back it up and you know, that's considered in our line but like I said, it's subjective and I think it's a tough one to get everyone to agree to too Yeah, absolutely I've definitely seen some discrepancies in the home court across different series Another thing that we're dealing with in the playoffs is getting these repeat matchups, right? So you see a couple teams play team like Milwaukee is dominating what is your process for trying to adjust as a series goes on and setting these spreads? Yeah, look, it's similar, right? Cause it's pretty subjective in terms of how much of it is actually noise off a small sample size versus how much of it is actually the adjustments being made either in the game or you know, how they match up against each other coaching advantages for example as well and so it's a difficult one for us to justify and put an exact number on it but the truth of the matter is we just rely so heavily on our base core ratings that there's small adjustments that we do make and we do make them are relatively minor though when you think about the matchups and how the series is progressing you look at, you know, I think game one and two in Brooklyn was really interesting the total was better from 227 to 233 on game one obviously went massively under when both of them had a pretty poor shooting performance and then in game two the total was like 227 so it adjusted down from being bet up six points back down to the initial point and that was one that we felt pretty strongly like betting the over, you know the money that we saw, the movement and sharp play on the first total was still pretty relevant and you know, they didn't even get to 200 points so there's a sort of adjustments we're looking to make but like I said, they're pretty subjective and it can be very difficult to decipher and understand what is noise against what is actual fact For you, when you are in a situation like that where you are trying to decide the impact of you want to take from one game is your inclination to default to your priors default to that baseline you were talking about and kind of trust the numbers you have? Absolutely, I mean, otherwise, you know you just find yourself swaying from game to game so much that you really don't know where you lie and like I said, for us, the vast majority 98% of it will be relying on our core ratings trying to make the adjustments that we can for some of the situational stuff and then add the layer on top of the subjective narrative that, you know, the guys have a lot of experience and value out from that perspective Right, and there's just so much randomness in shooting I'm not sure if that exactly was the case in game one of the Brooklyn series but, you know, we know just how random especially three point shooting is so I think, you know, you do need to be cautious of like the small sample size for sure We did also want to ask you about the Sun's Laker series the Suns went up three two with a big game Lakers without Anthony Davis they're now minus 290 to knock off the Lakers Do you, so what, how do you do this price, right? Cause it's pretty interesting cause you have to guess whether Anthony Davis is going to play or not So, and I don't think anyone really knows whether that's going to happen, even him, so Yeah, a very, very difficult series and like you say in the Lute very lots of subjective views that we really don't know the answer to and I'm not sure we'll ever find the answer out how healthy is Chris Paul, you know, if AD plays how healthy is he, it's a groin we know historically that's a really difficult injury to kind of stress test without putting yourself in game position and, you know, we think that Andy Davis is pretty badly hurt and even if we see him we don't believe that he'll have a whole lot of capacity relative to his ability so, right now our rough projections with all those doubts is that we think this game could be pick them if we get to a game seven right now the probability that we're coming out with I think is 28% for the Lakers and 72% for the Suns I think our price of minus 290 is almost exactly on that so, yeah, it's just a very difficult series for us to be too bullish about because of all the unknowns that you alluded and the problem is you can't be bullish on the series you can't have a great assumption of how things will play out but you're gonna get a lot of money on it because obviously there are a lot of eyes on this series in this series specifically given the Paul injury and the Davis injury it feels like it's one that is probably going to be a lot higher pressure for you as a bookmaker to try to set the right line has it been stressful? trying to sort through all the information and make those adjustments while taking on a lot of money I'd assume for this series the entire time? Yeah, I mean, we spoke about it before, Jim we're lucky that we don't get too much pressure and noise on a daily basis I don't have to walk with my head down in the corridor when we've had a losing night and our executive team are really balanced when it comes to that and the scale of our business means that we don't need to sweat results as maybe some smaller books might have to so I wouldn't say there's added pressure obviously we're trying to set the best number we can fundamentally that's what our job is we take a lot of pride in that and I think we do a good job with it but yeah, I think this one is just one of them that you put in the edge case and you say it's just so difficult no one really knows the answer I think we lean a little bit more on the market consensus for a game like this and a series like this than we would for other games where we have more facts in front of us and I think that's the right approach I think the better is like I said are Paul's with the same problem so I don't expect anyone out there to feel too sorry for us yeah, equal footing is always nothing we can complain too much about there let's talk about NHL and talk about the Stanley Cup finals we have the Avalanche at plus 150 to win the Stanley Cup right now do you see any realistic contenders for the Avalanche and the Stanley Cup or do you think that they've got a pretty firm advantage here? like the rods implied they've got a pretty firm advantage they're obviously really good and they're obviously really fun to watch as well we just feel like I think we're about the best price in the market at plus 150 though I think our true probability is a little bit higher probably higher than I might like to admit to be honest and we're, look, in terms of the matchup in terms of these teams Colorado Avalanche are the best team in NHL I think everybody knows that the rods imply it I think Tampa Bay is a team that we really do think can put it up to the Avalanche so I think we're plus 240 there might be as big as three to one out there so we're using a lot of our over and that we're giving away on Colorado versus the market and keeping it on Tampa Bay so we think it's probably more like a two horse race there with the two of those really kind of setting the edge and I think that Tampa Bay are really the team that can only challenge Colorado but looks to be obviously Colorado in pulled position right now at least awesome and John we also want to talk about the Belmont it's a race that's being back up to 1.5 miles known for being the longer race which I kind of enjoy as a distance runner breakdown this field for us compared to you know the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness yeah look it's a difficult race to handicap from that perspective obviously back up to a mile and a half and run in its regular slot which is great for Belmont and you know we've been impressive winner coming from Pimlico with Ron Bauer from Mike McCarthy he looked like he enjoyed the trip he looks like he'll relish extra ground in the Belmont but I'm not sure about the race flow of Pimlico he's one I'm looking to oppose he's probably going to be in the five to two range and yeah he can win of course he can he was impressive the last day but I'd try and look for someone else I think Rock the World is probably an interesting horse he got badly hampered from a wide gate in the Kentucky Derby he's had the rest since didn't run in the Preakness and he looks like the obvious leader with Joel Rosario for John Sadler out in the seven hole he'll probably be about four to one I don't think we're getting a ton of value on him but I'd rather take a shot with him being maybe potentially able to wire the field and get on to an easy lead in a race where a lot of them are probably reluctant to go forward and try and conserve energy for the last so I'll take a stab with him not a race of a whole lot of confidence in though to be honest the favorite looks like he'll be the two horse essential quality he missed the Derby through injury looks a really talented horse he's back on track now for Godolph and he's the right justifiable favorite but again he's going to be too short for me so I'll just take a chance with the seven and I wanted to ask you about the rest component because obviously with the Belmont being back to where it was previously it's a pretty grueling trip to go Derby, Preakness and Belmont in such a short span do you tend to find yourself favoring horses that may have had a break at some point in there it may not be on their third high pressure race in such a short window? Yeah it's really obviously a grueling task to be set to run these three races in six weeks or so I think you know you saw the benefit of Ron Bauer not running in the Derby when he ran in the Preakness and the favorite doing the opposite winning the Derby and then obviously disappointing slightly running third in Pimlico yeah I think the answer is yes I think the other key consideration is this race is just very different the first two legs are really centered around speed and they're trained in a different way whereas this race is getting a horse to relax and switch off and being able to finish out the race strongly so probably looking for a different type of a race horse usually at Belmont outside of obviously the triple crown horses and the likes of Pharaoh and horses like that that were able to just jump out on the lead and set easy fractions they're probably faced inferior opposition if I had a horse I wouldn't fear any of the top two here particularly like you said if I'm coming off a break I'd be happy enough taking some of these on and I think rock the world with the break he didn't have the race that he probably wanted to have in the Derby and obviously missing the Preakness now having a six week rest coming here fresh and maybe able to get on the lead is probably one of the main reasons why I kind of take a chance with him Now you mentioned you'll be hopefully at the Belmont this weekend is it nice for you to kind of kick back and because obviously fandal racing is a separate arm effectively from you is it nice for you to just kind of kick back and enjoy sports where you're not you know worrying about job stuff at the same time you know what I'm pretty good at switching off I mean managed to get to I think all three of the Brooklyn games at home and I don't worry too much about you know the results in terms of how it affects our profitability but I just love horse racing I do think it's an incredible side I love the challenge of trying to handicap and I love the kind of real time feedback that you get both setting odds and wagering on it so I think it's one of the unique sports that you kind of get that real time feedback and if you were wrong or right within you know two minutes and I think that's one of the unique selling points for me and you know the spectacle that it is and the athletes both the jockeys and the animals on the course so yeah I definitely enjoy it a lot but like I said I'm pretty good at switching off and forgetting about work when I'm at a sport and event regardless of what the outcome might be for the book Yeah the two minutes sweat is much nicer than a four hour NASCAR race where you're slowly realizing how wrong you were so I will I'll take that for sure that is John Sheeran make sure you check him out on Twitter at Jay Sheeran in 1981 and make sure you check out the lines at Fandall Sportsbook as well John we appreciate as always your transparency and your time, thank you for coming on and have fun at the Belmont this week Thank you guys have a great weekend You as well appreciate it thank you Covering the Future Big thank you once again to John Sheeran for swinging by and breaking down the process behind book making throughout the NBA and NHL playoffs and also talking some horse riding getting John's thought there still got some bonus money in my TVG account so we'll have to work on that and see what we have for this weekend but Ed, John went through his thoughts in Suns Lakers and it sounds like you want to talk about that for Covering the Future as well Yeah absolutely it's just been interesting so last week I talked about home court in the NBA and in some sense this is going to be kind of a covering the past about that supposed analysis that home court should be about three points in the NBA playoffs and then just looking I just kind of got intrigued because I've been trying to figure out I don't really I didn't run an NBA model this year so I've been actually trying to use the markets to figure out well what are the markets think the spread should be so you know I mean you can kind of back out what the markets think which team is better on a neutral court which I can put into a model and calculate with the home court and calculate what should be the win probability at this point and then you can compare that to the series price at Fandle so when you're looking at the Phoenix series you know game one was at Phoenix Suns were a two and a half point favorite both teams were healthy so this might actually be the clearest picture of what these two teams are full strength game two the Lakers were actually a two point favorite and that was a huge swing because Chris Paul was hurt there might have been a little bit of an extra push towards the Lakers because they were down 1-0 in the series at that point game three Chris Paul is back everyone's essentially healthy and the Lakers were a six and a half point favorite at home they're both that was for both game three and game four Anthony Davis got hurt during the game and game four so that should not be reflected in what that market closed at obviously game five is gonna reflect the Anthony Davis injury and the Suns went up to a four and a half point favorite on their home court and then we still kind of expect Anthony Davis to be out I think and the Lakers are about a two and a half point favorite at this point at FanDuel I think there's more juice to bet the Lakers at minus two and a half right now so obviously this is the line's been all over the place because of key injuries to Chris Paul and Anthony Davis you can probably get a reasonable estimate for the teams at full strength if you look at the differences between game one and game three which were relatively healthy so if you do that you would see that the Lakers would be considered better by two points on a neutral court right and so and you can kind of use that to say well if Anthony Davis comes back Lakers should be our two points better and that would give you the Suns about 69% chance to, excuse me, a 79% chance if Davis is healthy if Davis is not healthy you can kind of look at the differences between a game five and six to figure out what they should be on a neutral court and they would suggest that Phoenix is better by about a point and so this would be about a 69% win probability so the difference, look the Lakers are definitely behind the eight ball here right so they're down three two they need to win two in a row they're not likely to win this series but the difference if Anthony Davis is around their win probability is going to jump about 10% in this series so and you know not surprisingly Fan Duel is exactly splitting this difference minus 290 for Phoenix to win is a break even probability of 74% which is exactly in the middle now if you notice like when I've been talking about this you know the difference between Suns by two and a half points and Lakers by six and a half points both on their home court is actually a difference of nine points that would imply a home court of four and a half points which is something I would have used like eight years ago in the NBA playoffs before home court has drastically decreased and honestly right now like if you look at the numbers you know without Anthony Davis in games five and six now we're looking at a difference of about seven points so the spreads are all over the place in this series that's certainly not to say the market is wrong because it's not giving me a home court of three the home court of three has the markets have like confirmed that in some of these closer series Denver, Portland and Atlanta, New York the difference has been exactly six in those spreads so yeah the series has been all over the place I think it's kind of interesting I don't really have a take as to whether Anthony Davis will play or which team I like more but I thought it was interesting to kind of look at the analytics and what the win probabilities say and based on the point spreads in the series well it's important too because people will have more information when they listen to this podcast and they can decide based on the data you mentioned like okay we know Anthony Davis is out or we know Anthony Davis is in they can go then decide based on the numbers you gave out which I feel like is equally actionable information to have yeah hopefully so I mean you have to have a take if you're going to act on this but this is what the markets would say based on the spreads I'm hoping for a game seven at least just because it's been an interesting series I'd like to see a healthy Anthony Davis we're probably not going to get that for this series but like healthy, healthy but I would like to see more actors it's been a fun series so far so hopefully more action, healthier versions of each team we'll see how things play out later on this week for my cover in the future I want to go back to NASCAR this week and talk about Joey Logano because the cup series is heading to Sonoma which is a road course and it's their third road course race the regular season Logano has bet a pretty constant presence at the front of the field but he's not being treated as such from an odds perspective so I want to bet him across the board for this weekend the reason here is that his road course abilities have really ticked up recently he has four straight top tens in road courses for points paying races dating back to last year but if you count the Bush clash which was an exhibition he actually has four straight podium finishes on road courses he was third at Circuit of the Americas two weeks ago second at the Daytona Roval third at the Bush clash also in Daytona second at the Charlotte Roval last year he had a top eight average running position in all three of the points paying races so he didn't fluke his way there he was running up front to the entire race and finished well so he's good on the road courses and his form in the 750 horsepower package is good too he ranks third in the current forum section of my model which just looks at the 750 tracks so far this year when you add that with his road course prowess Logano ranks fourth overall in my model so I want to bet him the problem is that Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. suck up a lot of the win equity at this track and he has to beat them he hasn't done that yet so what I want to do here is split this one up I want to lay down two units on Logano the first unit goes to entirely his top 10 odds at minus 175 I think that's a good bet by itself so if you don't want to deal with Truex and Elliott's just bet him top 10 I think that's totally fine the second unit is going to be split in half between his podium odds and his win odds the podium odds are plus 400 if annual sports book his win odds are 16 to 1 this does mean I need him to podium to profit still so there is that but my win simulations show that there is value in all three of these markets the win market, the podium market and the top 10 market the biggest value is in the outright he's simulated 8.6% to win versus 5.9% implied it is the biggest outright value I have for this week but with Truex and Elliott being so good on this track type I'm okay taking the less quote unquote valuable route and going with Logano to podium and finish top 10 here the other thing too is my model cannot get to the numbers Truex and Elliott have like there are Elliott's that like implied 30% I'm not going to get there with my simulations I just I can't find a way to make him look that good in my model so I do want to account for that and discount and say that Logano's simulated win odds may be a bit higher than they should be so to me it's one unit on Logano to finish top 10 at minus 175 half unit each in the podium in the outright there is value in all three markets so whatever your flavor may be if you want to go podium sweet you want to go top 10 sweet the data does back it up you could go out when it went outright too but I would say again I can't get Elliott and Truex as high as their implied odds so it's going to make other people look naturally more valuable but I do think that Logano for the podium and the top 10 is going to be the way I want to play things for this week and I wanted to ask you though because it seems like there are some situations where no matter how we look at things we can't get to the number like sometimes I don't know if it's like the Patriots like a back in their heyday it would just be like monster favorites like against the Dolphins a couple years ago we can't get our numbers to match that what do you do in the situations where you know things are probably more probable than your model has but you still can't get to what the betting number is because to me the issue is that it creates seeming value elsewhere that might actually be there what do you mean seeming value elsewhere because like if my win simulations have 100% allocation and they can't get to 30% on Chase Elliott that means that I got him a 15% that's half like that's 15 percentage points of value that are lingering for other people but like I know Chase Elliott's true win odds are probably higher than 15% Yeah I mean I think you just need to be thoughtful about it I mean you need to the markets are going to they're gonna put a couple extra points on the favorite like in Alabama that's just gonna happen because that's what the market says the price should be so you know I mean if there's always kind of an Alabama factor right and my model compared to what they do so I don't know I think that's where you just have to be mindful that your model isn't perfect and know that it might struggle a little bit and with some of these big favorites and that doesn't mean the market's right doesn't mean your model's wrong just have to be careful about that And that's the goal here with the Logano splitting the markets and trying to navigate my way around that so Joey Logano a guy I want to bet this week just be cautious given that Elliott and Truex are lurking and I was waiting to snatch a win at a road course That is all the time that we have for this week here on Cover In The Spread big thank you once again to John Sheeran a fan to a sports book for swinging by breaking down NBA and NHL playoffs and the Belmont this week hope John has a fantastic time at the Belmont follow John on Twitter at Jay Sheeran 1981 Ed, what is going on for you this week over at the Power Inc? Yeah, had a really interesting conversation with Dan Zimborski about baseball It is not up yet, but it will be soon Yeah, it was really cool it was really cool to talk to him We kind of expanded on some of the things that we talked with him this time last year and his player projections and he made me really jealous of all the data that they have on baseball players even though it's far from perfect but Dan's a really interesting guy he did not give me kind of the stock answers his favorite book and who he'd like to have dinner with were very interestingly not what you would expect so yeah, it was a lot of fun and then I've definitely been trying to keep up at least one newsletter a week with my newsletter at the Power Inc looking at NBA and golf this time of year and certainly gonna be turning that focus on football as we get into August so check that out at thepowerinc.com If you follow Dan Zimborski on Twitter you will not be surprised that he would have unconventional answers to those questions he's a really interesting guy really good dude too to talk to very willing to donate his time like even when I was doing small-time radio in the nearest Minnesota he still came on and he talked about the twins ifs projection so I'll check that out once it's up Dan Zimborski really fun guy check that out over at the Football Analytics Show and check out Ed Stuff at thepowerinc.com and check out Ed on Twitter at the Power Inc I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S you can also follow the Fanduel Podcast Network at Fanduel Podcast big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer for running the video side of things here today thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your bets whether it be for the NBA or NHL playoffs or for the Belmont or NASCAR this week we'll talk to you once again next week this has been covering the spread right here on the Fanduel Podcast Network Aaron Dolan here thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great Fanduel content and check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here