 The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White. And welcome all to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. As always, we come at the appointed time together. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So, what do we have here today? Well, a whole lot of nothing. A bag full of empty as everybody's trying to figure out what's going on. I've talked to a couple of the people that I know that trade on in and around Chicago's a big CBOE and other trading floors. Anyway, I've got a couple of people that have never really steered me wrong. It's not always exactly the truth. But it's, I mean, you know, unless they got somebody to admit something, you're probably not going to get 100%. But they're all saying that everybody's afraid to do something because they think that if the market starts dipping that the Fed and the Treasury and everybody else has kind of told everybody that, you know, if you move it up, we'll probably not do anything. If you move it down, we'll do something. So, you know, it kind of reminds me of the gunslinger who was always shooting at the feet of the hapless drunk telling them to dance. I wonder how many times that actually happened. I bet probably none. Anyway, the whole thing of that is they're kind of shooting around at the feet of the market and they don't want it to go up and they don't want it to go down. So the question is, are they trying to kill volatility today and the next couple of days as the BOEs, you better get out of here by sundown, except the sundown was three days from yesterday. Anyway, don't you love my western bad cowboy analogies today? Anyway, get out of town by sundown because it's going to be a bad day at Black Rock, although probably they've already hedged themselves out. But yeah, it's one of those days where you just want to scratch your heads. Other things going on in the market are already in progress. Black Bart Market could be that. Yeah, I mean, there could be some other stuff. Again, we're going delta neutral today on options. Normally, you have a huge amount of volatility. I'm wondering if that wasn't really taken care of yesterday that maybe many in the industry already knew it and that's why we got the wide swings yesterday, that we part of the unwashed masses weren't privy to. Then we get into really earnings tomorrow and numbers. I think we've got economic numbers tomorrow and Friday. Maybe this is just the storm calm before the storm, but I think we've got a lot of cross currents and it's not easy to pick which ones out there. I did go all flat yesterday in the daily newsletter. It's hard to really figure out if there's a real from looking at options and then looking. The thing that really bugged me yesterday, the reason I went all cash, is that the VIX puts went to nothing. I think they were on the low like one out of five VIX buys and an option was a put, like 20, 24%, something. It was very, very light. The thing I hate about that is if no one's prepared for a big gap down, you can get a big gap down in the markets. That part told me that the risk was much higher. Options continue to be rather bullish into the 21st. It doesn't mean that you go up today on those. It just means that kind of like Otis, by midnight he's going to find his way into the drunk tank at Mayberry RFD. In the meantime, though, he can wander all over the town and maybe through a few bars, but at midnight you know where he's going to be. That's kind of the way that options work after they hedge them on a day like that or today. Of course, we talked about earnings and that is a lot of the banks Thursday and Friday. Tomorrow we're going to get some of them before the bell, and then Friday some of them before the bell. I think we're going to start seeing at least these guys in the conference calls giving us some kinds of heads up at least what's happening in their business and why it probably won't help us today with the individual trade. It will probably help us across the next week as more and more earnings do come out. As Jesse Livermore used to say, no prognosis, no profit. And right now I don't have a real good prognosis. I don't have a real good feel for a risk reward other than I couldn't find. I could find a lot of reasons to be thinking that market goes up from here, just not today. And we could also see good reason that the market gaps down, washes everybody out and then takes back up higher. So I have no real iron in the fire on this right now. I'll have to look for some other tortured metaphors to finish up. But I'm not real bearish. Nothing's changed on that other than the fact that I dislike the risk reward, not what the rest of the market's saying. And I just very much dislike not having any or a lot of people incredibly bearish at lows because generally they will wash everybody out and then the market turns back higher once everybody decides it's time to short. But yeah, very light short-cell put numbers yesterday in the VIX stocks. And if you're new to the show, we talk a lot about the VIX. I think it's probably one of the most dis, or what would you say it, misunderstood vehicles in all of the market. It is just the premiums in the out of the money puts and calls for the S&P 500. And most people get very confused at it. Then they start looking at it and start getting into it. And then they find out that it's not only that, but it's a rolling average or oscillator between two time frames. And that's being 24 days and 36 days. So you get a little bit of kind of a oral beat. If you've ever been in a car, not a car, a boat with two engines or a plane with multiple engines, and you've heard that until they get both engines at the same speed, that's kind of what you get in it. Now I think a lot of people are confused and don't really understand that the oscillator does do that between the 24 and 36 days. So the whole idea is that's supposed to forecast over time, not all the time, be right, the average of what options should sell for to cover the risk of higher and lower blowouts in the market. If you haven't ever gotten it, email me at path at tfnn.com. I'll send you the white paper on the VIX from the CBOE. And it's well worth a read. The most misunderstood part of the market in my opinion. We'll be back. This is Australia's largest undeveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tier one mining district. 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Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, Educating Investors. That's 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. As we return, and not much going up, we're just kind of vacillating very light volume right now. $35.95 on the S&P cash. So, yeah, it's not an easy call here. I'm generally one if you're in doubt, keep out. Like I said, on a daily basis or more of a trading basis, I've stood back. I've got one longer term position that I got into correctly. And so I'm sitting on my hands on that. But we got a lot of stuff going on in the market. Microsoft had its dog and pony with new products today. Didn't seem to do much of anything. New products look very cool, especially on the desktop. It looks like Microsoft's outdoing Apple on high-end trick equipment. For that, they also have a brand new crop of laptops. They've been doing very well. They share pretty much all the technology that they have with their partners who want to make PCs. But a lot of people just don't think it's worth putting a huge amount of money in R&D. So Microsoft does it and then shares it with its partners. But for the most part, you've got a big six-month advantage in buying Microsoft's laptops right now over the competition because they do tend to come along slower. Not always better or worse. So there is some reason to buy some of those other laptops out there. But their new desktop thing looked very, very good and very expensive. It depends on whether or not you're buying the shares or you're buying the desktop that they have. But it's kind of like if you figured Apple was going to make a desktop. This is what it looks like and all the features in it. So they're really directly going after that market that Apple has kind of ignored for a while. It's still ignoring. And if you want a workstation for your office where you're doing CAD-CAM work or graphics work, actually Microsoft pretty much has the best off-the-floor products that you can buy now. Again, Apple down a very light volume. We talked about this over the last couple of days. Not much going on out here, all quiet on the western front. 137.68, the October 3rd low with 125 million shares. Today you've got 46 million shares. So you certainly aren't testing these lows on higher volume. And see, I got all quiet on the western front. I've almost got all my movie genre metaphors in for the day, but we'll see. I've got to add them up during the break. Okay, questions about what's going on with a few things. Is September 29th the short-term top for the dollar? Let's do this. Okay, let's go to Forex. Let's pick up the dollar. Okay. I'm not exactly sure. Well, I know at least from what I've been told and these people have been reliable in the past. There is a lot of people, a lot of stuff going on in the background. And that part of the background is trying to make sure that the volatility dies as we wait for the BOE to go through. So I'm not exactly sure. We'll have to see and it's not going to be something I know today. The question is whether or not we're going to see the market just kind of go sideways and burn off whatever you believe either oversold or overbought depending on how bearish you are in this market. Everything, if I just step back, if I'm not talking about the next day or two, everything at least on a medium term tells me that we've probably got some kind of low in here that takes us through to Christmas with maybe some kind of rally. And then the next big leg would move on. So there's kind of that. Look at the futures. What do we have here? Crude's down a little bit. Not exactly sure what's going on with that other than we had a bunch of oil come on the market. Rather suddenly, this is the doubling up before the election season from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. My belief is that day after the elections this is probably going to get shut off and then we're probably going to see the real big move in crude after that. Of course, the president of these United States has threatened the head of the kingdom. Is it the kingdom of Saudi? Yeah, it's the kingdom anyway from the Saudis. Kind of come out here and we're going to fight. Kind of some fighting words. I'm not exactly sure what he thinks he's going to get by threatening the ruler who doesn't have to run for election ever. Certainly, I think at least you could say that our traditional allies are probably getting more distant, at least in the Middle East, both Israel and the Saudis, at least in the last 20 years. Saudis have kind of been maybe longer, 30 years, been kind of on our side since a lot of the dust-ups out there in the sandbox as the military likes to call it. So not exactly sure what's going on there. Like I said, I think we talked about it two weeks ago that the SBR was being doubled up from one million barrels a day to two million barrels a day and apparently that is starting to flood through the market. But pretty much that is thought to be turned off or will run out whichever happens first, but probably somewhere around the election and then we'll be looking at much higher prices. And I think the Saudis can look forward to that also. So they're probably non-plus. I don't get to use that word enough. Non-plus in the market about that. 877-927-6648. Okay. Let's see. Question on Micron, which even coming out with bad news and the SMH is doing horrible, even coming out with bad news on earnings is holding up fairly well. You don't have a lot of volume today. Just looking through some emails here. We'll be back in a minute. Anyway, Micron, let's go and look at the SMHs when we come back. Very interesting to see this. I always look at this one as the ball bearings of the semiconductor market because everywhere you go, you got to have memory no matter what you're doing these days. We'll be back in a minute. Let's have a look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the gold report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, DXAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report, sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. 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Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. As he said, we're looking at the SMH. It's really interesting to see Micron hold up so well and everybody going after the SMH is out here. You've got a doji out here, so I think we're probably looking at one or two things. Of course, Yogi Berra was famous for saying when you come to a fork in the road to take it, well, dojis, if we get this light volume doji, tend to be either the bottom or the halfway down move. Maybe we get that determination the next day or two. We start heading down lower, then you can make a good prediction of what? That's about $30 move. Is that right? $30 move in the SMHs. Do we bounce back up to maybe $195-ish where that gap down happened? Or do we subtract $30 from $174 and look at $144 as the next move down in the SMHs? Again, I don't see why everybody is so bearish other than getting invaded. Maybe I haven't heard the news, but maybe there's more evidence that China is going to decide to bigfoot it into Taiwan. I'm not sure. Micron, maybe, why it's holding up better has very low exposure to being in there. I wonder if you won't see non-Taiwanese companies and non-China companies both do better if anything like that happens. Maybe they don't have to go all the way. Maybe they just continue to kind of sabre rattle or something like that. But interesting, we are proverbially in the Yogi-Bara phrase at the fork for the SMHs if we get this doji by the end of the day. Sometimes you get two dojis, but generally that is either bottom or the halfway move down. So probably tomorrow we'll have a much better read on that. Questions on the TLT from Jack? Thanks, Jack, for being a new listener. Come on. As we said, this got pushed down on the day when the bond market was actually closed. You had a doji yesterday. Now you're getting a little bit of a push back up. The question is, this one gets a lot of doji, so I'm going to discount it as much as I would on something like the SMHs. But certainly, you got a little move, no volume out here. I've been thinking this thing is going to bounce to 104, 105-ish, maybe as high as 106, and then make its next move down. I haven't seen any reason for all the wheels just to fall off the wagon. Again, the business of the Fed is to slow down big markets. I know Janet Yellen was out yesterday saying, everything is orderly. Well, it doesn't really matter if you're starving. This means that you're not going to die for probably until next week if everything's going to hell in a handbasket. But for some reason they're consumed with orderly when everything's going to hell. Whether you go broke today or in five days, would that really matter to you? It doesn't really matter to me. If you go and broke, you go and broke. But to them, it's all about slowing everything down. And the idea is to keep it from breaking and then totally kind of spinning out of control, which is really what they're worried about. So could we see a Fed? I think we start in the, at least let me put it this way. I think I start to see a lot of people betting that something's going to happen, that the Fed will step in. The problem I have with that is in the past, the Fed has not stepped in until everything proverbially has hit that spinning fan that blows air. And of course we all know it hits the fan. But generally they like to watch people roast for a few days before they stamp. They put their big foot in and their big foot out and shake it all about. There's another good metaphor. So I'm kind of like somebody just said in the den, no position is a position. So we'll continue to take a look about what's going on in the broader markets. Okay, let's take a look at the usual suspects, NVDA. Of course, NVDA is shipping their new flagship product. You got two Jojis back to back on NVDA today. Today is going to be significantly lighter volume. So is this the halfway move down? Or is this going to bounce back up to maybe 128-ish where this thing gapped down on the 7th? That was on 67 million shares. So hard to tell. Again, I'll probably react. I'm not going to do a lot of forecasting. It really, I mean, options have held up fairly well. Most of the option market makers think this market's going to turn around in the next seven days. Just doesn't have to be today. Let me put it that way. Okay, so we looked at NVDA, just two Jojis there. Let's take a look at AMD. All these companies right now are having their big shipping forays and products coming to market. Older products, probably the best time to buy a last generation PC or last generation video card. There's lots of deals. My guess is that you're probably going to get the best price in about another two weeks after everything starts to ship. Wouldn't quite call it a doji and AMD, but certainly very narrow ranges here for the next three days or for the last three days. Let me put it that way. Let's take a look at some of the streamers. I've been fairly bearish on these. Yesterday, you had a lot of volume down. You did break the previous low in Netflix. You did so on the low of September 6th that had seven and a half million shares, 214.69. You got to 1264 on higher volume. So you're probably going to come back and retest that low yesterday. You got a little bit of a reversal today on 10 million shares. So not a lot of volume so far. The energy is about same on the way up as on the way down. Let's look at one or the other more pure plays on streaming in Disney. Come on, Mr. Volume. There we go. Okay. So Disney looks a little bit better. You had a little lighter volume off the top of 126.48. That was the August 16th. You're really testing this $90.23 low. In this market, I would want to see $90.23 pierced. Go below it and then close back above it. Maybe it'll be a day. Maybe it'll be two days. Maybe it'll be the same day. Certainly don't have any volume as you've gotten down into that candle today. You only have 3.7 million shares into 12. So like I said, a lot of these look like they're going to get a bounce on volume. The question is just how long do we wait for the second BOE shoe to drop before everybody figures it out? Question from Jack on IBB, which we'll get to here. Otis? We'll be back in a minute. Live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV. Live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. 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High volume highs. Probably going to retest 903. My guess is that like 1980, 81, 2000, 2001, when the party's over and you start seeing interest rates like you really like in the late 70s, you didn't really get the move in gold until everything kind of went along for a while. And as soon as any pause came along, everybody started going after gold hook line and sinker. I think the same thing is going to happen. If I was looking to go long gold or silver anywhere in here, if the Fed blinks, that's what I would be over. Because that's generally when the, you know, you got kind of a big pool of gasoline out here for inflation. Everybody's ignoring gold. But it seems like it gets ignored until kind of the end of the hiking and you start actually bringing the interest rates down or stopping them rise. That's generally where you start in the long, long term. See the big moves that we've had during my lifetime. Maybe there's something more to some of the other ones. But if we're looking for that 10-year run that you got from 2001 to 2009 or 1980 to 1987, I think it was, those all kind of came on the back end. I mean, we had inflation, gas prices, everything was horrible. And really when things started to turn around and go back up is when gold really started to move. So, yeah, one thing to consider. Okay. What else do we have here? Got some more emails. Okay. What do we have here? Okay. My thoughts. All I have is my thoughts. Oh, there it is. RIG. Any chance that this does well? Well, you certainly bounced off the lows. The problem you had with this is you got the same volume at the low for RIG. The July 15th low had 35 million shares. The September 23rd low had 25 million shares. You know, the question is, are we going to have a change in policy in the United States? Probably not. We're seeing the first steps of change in the UK. My guess after everybody freezes to death, maybe after a million people die for an energy policy that didn't make a lot of sense, maybe everybody's going to be more on the ball of saying, well, you know, this is where we're going with all this renewable stuff. But, you know, that's not going to be five years. It's probably going to take 30. So why don't we have something that makes a little bit more sense? And we need some energy now. I know that's tough in some places, but I have a feeling that all it's going to take is a lot of bodies. Generally, whether it's an aviation or you have a crash and you've got, they call it tombstone mentality in the aviation business. That is, get enough tombstones, something actually changes. Certainly in Europe and probably just the cost here in the United States that we're going to see, we'll probably have enough tombstone to probably, I think, at least modify somewhat the energy policy for fossil fuels here in the United States. So is there, John says, he's in at 508 since last year. I don't know what your plan was. I don't think they're going out of business. Long term, probably okay. Short term, you know, I'm not one to ride one down, but man, could do okay. But you know, I would wait and see, since you've held it this long, I'd wait and see after the elections. You know, if lightning strikes and there's a giant blowout, you might just see enough people get together in the House and the Senate to override the presidential vetoes. I know that's going to, it sounds kind of tough now, but we're things have happened. And like I said, get enough tombstones, things can change. 877-927-6648, we're looking at the 3D printer business. Now, this is a business that should be doing better than it is right now. I think the next big wave in 3D printer is coming with the drop in prices of printers that just aren't glorified hot glue guns, which is kind of what we have now. The prices are rapidly dropping on metal-centered printers. These take basically metal filings and a laser and some glue and heat these things up solidly enough. To take out and put in your easy bake oven. And then you run the temperature up to a thousand degrees and they kind of all kind of bake in the part. But are they as strong as one that's CNC'd or cast or forged now? But are they good enough for a finished part for a lot of things? The answer is yes. I think that transition to metal is getting ready to do some stuff. And both SSYS, DDD, kind of the leaders in this space have done something. You only have about 581,000 shares today compared to 1.7 million shares back on September 23rd. You haven't quite gone down and tested low yet. You got 810 today. What was the low of the day? 925. I mean, you're pretty close. Yesterday the low was 794. I mean, you're into that candle and you had no volume really to speak of yesterday. 1.2 compared to the 1.7. You got even lighter volume out here. So if the market started moving up, the problem that these light dollar or low dollar stocks have though is the same problem that we have with CCJ. They took a gap down on buying Westinghouse and probably a good medium and long term decision for them. In the short term, the market doesn't want you spending any money on anything. They don't want you to be in trouble in a year from now thinking that you've got to go out and borrow some money. But I think Kamiko is doing a very good job now of consolidating the uranium and nuclear power production part of the business. Just a lot of people are worried that everything's going to hell on a handbasque. Are you going to have money next year? So they don't want people spending a dime on anything. And I think it's probably a good long term buy. I'm not going to buy it today. But when the dust settles, I think probably they're going to be a much better company long term. We'll be back in a minute. 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It'd be tough to get to 10 billion shares today. Again, you probably want some level of 16-18 billion shares to blow out these lows. Maybe we're just slowly chewing through these lows and going to wake up and it's going to jump the breakthrough ice, as Wycoff used to say. I just don't see a lot of evidence that generally you get more volume at the lows when you're chewing through it. Does this mean we're setting up some kind of rally that maybe the feds out there telling people they're saying one thing but getting ready to do another? Hard to say, but like I said, we've got a lot of dodges out there today. Probably the halfway move down or a time for the rally to start moving here in the next day or so. So we'll have more economic news tomorrow. We've got earnings. My guess is we're not going to get a lot of people wanting to get out past the tips of their ski before the close today. And that sets us up for probably maybe a good Friday afternoon of either a nice bounce or the end of the world sell-off. Both of those have nice and probably equal, for me, equal probability of outcome sitting here now. So there isn't a good risk reward one way or the other. But we'll see. Anyway, as usual, almost always better being out and wishing you were in than being in and wishing you were out. So when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here tomorrow.