 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's supply and demand for us in gold Fundamental and technical analysis. I hope you're doing well and before we get into the video Don't forget to like subscribe and share this video with your fellow trading colleagues If you find the information that I provide useful every week. So getting into the week ahead 23rd of January and zoom in a little bit. So the week ahead We've got a busy week in the US with releases including the fourth quarter GDP growth rate That's definitely going to be watched durable goods orders and the PCE Price index as a measure of inflation and the feds preferred measure of inflation matter of fact personal income and spending and earnings reports Also flash PMI data for January will be published for the US UK Japan and Euro area countries. So again PMI's Quite important when looking at economic When looking at the economy Investors will also follow the Bank of Canada interest rate decision Germany IFO business climate and consumer confidence GDP growth rate South Korea and inflation rate for Australia again inflation due to if inflation keeps rising and then the RBA the Reserve Bank of Australia Possibly continuing to hike rates. So let's see what happens there. Anyway, let's let's get into some technicals and Looking at the dollar index starting off from the dollar index as we always do and dollar is dollar index It's just a measure of dollar strength against the basket of currencies like the Euro pound and the yen And it's always good to keep an eye on the dollar to see what's happening Now over the past year or so We've have had this you know massive run-up and we've had quite a deep Pull back and say a deep pull back depending on you know where you're actually Taking your run-up from right, but if we're looking at the start of the move, right? Which was back in May 2021 It's probably just looking like maybe somewhere like maybe like a fair value move really Prices of pulled back to fair value now Yeah, prices are pretty much pulled back to fair value and so Yeah, I guess in the in the short term we are seeing Dollar devaluation and probably continued dollar devaluation as we get to the end of the the feds hiking cycle So federal reserve Just set to slow Set to slow rate hikes again and debate how much further to go So officials poised for quarter point move with inflation cooling Tight labor market makes something easy about pausing interest rates. So they're still debate to be had but overall the consensus is that the Fed are going to ease up on rates and you know pivot You know potentially From you know hiking rates to potentially even cutting rates by the end of the year and so What you'll see and now is the inflation You know coming down the Fed have less need of a reason I guess to to high crates and So what you're seeing is I guess an exit of the dollar Also, there's some other contributing factors like China reopening from their zero covered policy and actually as well Europe looking not looking as bad as You know what was previously previously first thought from the end of last year going into this year You know warm weather and all that and low energy prices. So for me the dollar overall is still a Potential self courses is data dependent. So today it comes out supporting the narrative for a strong dollar over at least the next You know, maybe few Weeks or months then maybe I might you know be a bit more neutral on the dollar But the moment as it stands, I do think that the dollar is You know the potential most most likely a cell and I have got a cell bias on the On the dollar for now and a buy bias on that euro and so any pullbacks into you know any kind of supply zone You can use as confluence. So you're not trading the dollar currency the DX why you're just looking at This is confluence and then looking for any cell trades against certain pairs that you might see on the You know any any dollar crosses for example, if you want to get short on a dollar yen Then you're looking for the DX why to come up into that supply zone and then looking for You know a potential supply zone also on the dollar yen for some sort of confidence I'm talking about the dollar yen. Let's move on to the dollar yen and the yen For me is a buy especially against the dollar at the moment The expectation that the Bank of Japan is going to Change their policy from holding rates to hiking rates via their yield curve control is still in play So I think any pullback on the yen up into This area of supply I think is definitely Let's say definitely a cell depends obviously, but my bias is to is to sell So you've got this area here in these areas here. So So, yeah, I think these areas are really really nice for For short trades, especially if it comes up into that one three five area I think I that that area is really really nice for a potential cell the The Bank of Japan I think did kind of surprise by not With the Bank of Japan came out earlier in the week And surprise markets by by holding actually their monetary policy Which caused prices to kind of spike up and in the end to weaken but then Prices, you know came back down again. I think we're gonna probably end up, you know, somewhere in the roundness You know one three three one three five area before potentially rolling over by the end of the year Looking at the The dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss Pair I'm interested in trading personally actually both pairs. I'm looking to to short so Yeah, I'm not really keen on this But if you are you do have a current demand and that has been touched several times So I don't expect this to necessarily hold it could obviously but if it does I would think personally I'd rather if I was gonna be a buyer of the dollar. I'll be a buyer of the dollar down into that You know the 90 050 0.905 area and if I was gonna be a seller You do technically have a supply zone right here as well Up into that supply zone, but again, not really keen on this pair And it's made a new low, so I think if anything you'd really have to look for any kind of sell trades Probably up into the first area would be maybe the 93 Still put 93 50s. I think somewhere around there would be 93 round number would be the First area to look for short trades and then if anything you get a better price going higher Dollar CAD dollar CAD Again last week's analysis prices pretty much went auctions went sideways and We do have again as we've pointed out and read earlier the Canadian dollar interest rate decision. I think they are expected to hike rates I think one more time so that could also as well appreciate the the CAD So you could see some more downside, but you can see prices pretty much came up into this Supply zone daily the 135 and undecided that where you've got also confluence of Support turning to resistance So Yeah within that supply zone and so you've seen pretty much, you know intraday bounces off of that But again, I'm not really looking to trade this at any point It's not really on my on my list of things to the list of currencies to trade But if you are then I would probably say any any move up to you know, the highs around 137 Especially that's 137 50s. I think it's very nice for a short trade technically and the long trade for the dollar would be down into Either again the the lower end of this demand zone or the 131 70s Moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar Again, if you're looking to buy the New Zealand dollar, I think this is last week's analysis looking at potential for pullback But obviously price hasn't pulled back dollars probably been getting a lot weaker and zooming out a bit Yeah, you see in a level that's been touched, you know once twice Typically does get weaker is it Or less of a bargain. I should say as it you know starts to come up So I wouldn't be surprised if you see price, you know go to the upside then pull back as well So that's what you know, you really want to see if it breaks past that supply zone You want to be a buyer in the New Zealand dollar due to potential risk on in China reopening and selling the dollar Then I'll do that and wait for this to This area here, I would say is the demand zone is now starting from around there Yeah, from about there before looking at getting long demand and Moving on to the pound dollar right so the pound dollar The pound has been a bit of a strange one to be fair Um like the the euro there's you know a lot of the negative data has kind of gone away in fact and You know the pound is actually now expected to not be as bad as previously thought again This is due to warm weather and some surprises Economically, but I still think it's the you know one of the worst economies the UK inflation also came out this weekend It eases for the second month in a row In a sign that peak has passed a peak inflation has passed a slowdown driven by cheaper fuel and clothing food prices Jeremy Hunt plans to cut inflation in half this year and So UK inflation dipped for a second month in December boosting hopes that the worst cost of living crisis Which obviously affects GDP in a generation may be starting to ease and so Yeah, we could see obviously lower inflation and inflation come You know starts to start to retract which would really help. I think all economies really to be fair so So yeah looking at the pound That also puts pressure. I think as well on the I think the Bank of England Are looking to hike by 50 basis points I think inflation has come down enough for them to want to warrant a 25 basis point hike I think they're trying to get in as many hikes as they can before Before you know to try getting facing to come down and why the economy can manage it now one of the things I was also talking about in the group is that what could affect The economy next next month and the next coming months is that the UK suffers worse strikes in 30 years with more action ahead So they you know 467,000 working days lost due to industrial action in November and walkouts intensify in December and January over paid squeeze And so lots of strike action going on which no doubt would affect You know the economy I'll be very surprised if it doesn't if you don't see it in the data And you know industrial strife cost of living, you know being The reason for really catalyst for the strikes right so ultimately That data has to come out you know this In the coming in the coming months, so We'll see what happens because with the cost of living crisis and the Bank of England hiking rates at the same time Doesn't doesn't feel good right especially if they don't get it resolved soon So yet we're up into this area where we could start to see a potential reversal Who knows but I think we For me, I'm not again I'm not really looking to trade this pair not looking to buy the dollar or buy the pounds So but technically I think this is a very nice area to look for any kind of short trades But that's just technically or if you're looking for any kind of pullbacks on the pound dollar to buy the pound against dollar Again that being more of a reversal of fortune for the pound Then you're looking at Why delete that you're looking at pullbacks into You know an area the first demand zone being around there, right? So Yeah, so the first pullback being into this demand zone before looking at getting Before looking at getting long so I think this is a great place to just remind you guys that Enrollment to the private mentoring group discord mentor group starts on the 6th of February reopens And it's gonna be only we're only reopened for about five days putting the closer on the 10th That's the 16 days left and if you do want to join then Yeah, 6th of February is when I am opening you'll get access to The discord group plenty of information plenty of channels you can see all here We've got our discussion rooms as well Trading videos and you can see some of the nice things that's the traders have been saying Lifetime members have been saying about myself and trading 180 you get access to the fundamental analysis spreadsheet also as well, which gives you The pairs and my my bias right and whether I'm long or short on a currency pair All right, and so You get access to that as well as Hundreds as hundreds of videos as well as a weekly live call on Wednesday We hold a zoom call every Wednesday Live so that you can ask your questions. We go over the market as well as private weekend videos So which go into a lot more detail about the technicals and the fundamentals As well, so don't forget you've got that so check out the website and 16 days left before we open so getting back to now the euro euro dollar We have euro dollar been saying trying to get along on this euro dollar now for me This is a bit prices are a bit too high too expensive for me bit too rich I'm looking for a pullback into at least a decent demand zone Not sure whether we'll get it if we do get it then brilliant if not Yeah, then and it goes higher than this just creates a Demand only we're waiting for a pullback into that area there before looking at getting long now again. I would say Fundamentally what happened this week is there was Some members that basically came out in an interview basically saying that they were a bit dovish on the On the euro in terms of interest rates and they thought that Christine the guard may want to hike so Cut rates or not a hike rates as much as previously thought and you saw in fact this drop I'll go down to the intro day He saw a drop in the euro Sorry, where are we We were yes, so here it was it was around Tuesday the 17th So he saw this drop in the euro and then on Wednesday Yeah, so that was really the talk so deals drop which affects currencies after a port about slower ECB tightening and then pretty much Wednesday at the World Economic Forum Villarro says that the guards half point ECB guidance is still valid So again the rumors came out that it was going to be 0.25 or 25 basis points and then Villarro comes out and says in fact, you know that you know There it should be still 50 basis points and then Christine the guard herself came out and said That it would be still, you know, it's still valid and so then you you you've got the The move again back higher For the euro right you're starting to appreciate Back and you're seeing prices go to the upside so For me, I'm still waiting for a pullback a decent pullback in order for me to get long on this euro dollars my bias hasn't changed for now and Yeah, let's see what happens there Ozzy dollar Australian dollar US dollar and going back out to the daily We did get a bit of a pullback into an area of demand which was here Before potentially bouncing I was looking for a deeper pullback to be fair I still think that we're in a bit of an expensive area. You do have in fact a Supply zone so in case you do want to buy the The US dollar then you have these zones right here, but my bias is actually to be a buyer Looking for a deeper pullback, although I do think that this did touch the Actually didn't quite touch the the monthly moving fair value I tend to like to trade around that monthly moving fair value as confluence because it just gives a perspective of you know Where value actually is and you buy an above then you're buying really at an expensive area So any pullbacks into that area, but demand zones are obviously the the priority so For me that demand zone is decent, but I just wanted a bit more Fair value monthly fair value long-term fair value to come into play as well Which I think it might if it comes down a bit then I think I will try to get into a long trade on this Aussie dollar and Those are really the areas you're looking for whether to buy or sell Moving towards the Aussie yen, and again, I think this Aussie yen I was saying last week that I was looking for probably more of a short trade didn't get an opportunity to prices spiked up in the morning, it's like 2-3 in the morning and You know on the on the news that the Bank of Japan were not You know hiking raids, but then it just went straight back down again So no opportunity there, but this does present For anyone that understands a bit of a stop-hunt level or you're looking at again just a move To the upside so you can see you know my last week's Forecast as far as an opportunity was correct. It just mean but you just couldn't get involved in it So ultimately You know you're looking probably a bit higher before looking to get sure if you are looking to get short But again, this is not a pair that I'm really interested in to be fair because you've got two really opposing forces. You've got a potentially strong yen and potentially strong Aussie dollar going into you know 2023 So again, not for me. I'm not really looking to trade this pair at all and gold. So gold as we've been talking about for ages and in fact, I remember back in back in What was it? It was back in June. I think it was If you go to Junes videos, we were talking about central banks to increase gold holdings over crisis concerns And so the the signals were there to really get long on gold You know 8th of June and so, you know a lot of traders don't understand really that You know central banks and big institutions have to buy well ahead of time, right? They're buying way ahead of time and so When they started buying they started, you know cost averaging in prices prices are going down Who's doing the buying who's managing to buy gold for cheap? I'm just and they understood at the time that prices should be somewhere around here in the next six to 12 months Which they've proven obviously to be correct, right? And this is what I was saying even all the way back then so go to June July August Videos on YouTube and you'll see when I do my gold analysis. This is exactly what I've been saying and so It takes time. This is how fundamentals work And if you can get ahead of the curve then pretty much you can benefit Now it's just really waiting for pullbacks, which price really hasn't pulled back But if you do get any kind of pullbacks into demand zones, I think that's going to be decent for a buy especially with you know the dollar to devalue in the depreciating and Potentially heading into a recession although that remains to be seen anyways guys That's it for this week Take care. I hope you have a great trading week and speak to you soon