 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access to trader.com nightly wrap up show. Everybody is doing well. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, thank you very much for tuning in, deciding to spend a couple of minutes with us. And hopefully again, like I say every single night, we can give you a pretty good sense of common sense and unbiased thought process for the next day. One thing we ask is if you can take one second before watching the video, just simply click a like. It'll help the channel help us grow. It'll help us get the word out, right on a bias technical analysis. So here's kind of like the good, bad, and the ugly part of the day. If you look at the final scoreboard, the down, down 500, excuse me, 400 points, the S&P 500 down 38 points, and the Nasdaq down 156 points. That's, you know, usually on the surface, they go, oh, it's, you know, that's pretty bad. It's not awful, but it's pretty bad. The problem with that was kind of the game plan that I had coming into today's session just all got blown out of the water. Okay, literally all blown out of the water. We'll get to that in a second. The biggest issue what happened today on the macro scale of the market is it got below the 20 day moving average. And right from the word go, instead of losing kind of a gap in crap scenario, it was almost like a gap throw the baby out with the bath water. Considering there was really no the size of technical damage and we rallied literally into the clothes, which is very, very odd. But this was kind of the scenario, right? We had a big gap down and all we did was literally rally into the clothes and that sounds great on the surface. The problem is the bulls still closed below the 20 day moving average and now pretty much every stock for the occasion for the exception of one or two. And I'll give you guys those symbols in a second. Everything now is stuck in the middle of their channels. I'll give you a perfect example, right? Nvidia, right? Today's high on Nvidia is 901. Today's low on Nvidia, 876. The stock closed in the four in the eight nineties. So we're $8 away from the highs $14 away from the lows. That's not exactly what you want to see a stock, for example, like Amazon, right? Amazon did a great job today. It gap down, reclaim both levels, but it's still far while not far away, but it's still away from the previous channel. So if you go through the Nasdaq 100 again, I use the Nasdaq 100 as a proxy to kind of what I trade because again, majority in stocks that I trade are in the Nasdaq 100. So we are kind of left at a scenario that going into tomorrow's session, you're going to see a lot of names really stuck in channels. And that's a very, very bad thing. The good news is for the bulls, if you look at how the cues performed the last three times that we got below the 20 day moving average, and usually that's a, it's a bearish thing. But since the market has been such an incredible aggressive rabbit animal in 2024, it feels like every single tie we get below the 20 day moving average, the market starts rallying the next days and reclaim it. So here is the last couple of times, right? So here is the last couple of times we lost the 20 day and what happened next? Okay, this was on February 21. We gap below the 20 day moving average. We claimed it on the close and had a massive gap up the next day, right? One plus one equals six. Here's another scenario, right? Here's another scenario that we close below the 20 day moving average on 319. Guess what happened the next day? It exploded for the next two days. Again, one plus one equals six. So here we are again. Okay, here we are present day. Another hammer, right? There was a hammer here on the 22nd of February. There was a hammer here on the 19th of March. And now we are in a howler here on April the 2nd. Is it possible we rally tomorrow based on what we just talked about in the last minute or so? Yeah, it's all possible. But again, this is everything away from common sense from technical analysis, but this market has been so strong that for some reason losing a major moving average is a buy signal. Don't ask me why I just work here. So going into tomorrow, yeah, I would usually turn around and be like, well, we're underneath the 20 day moving average. We should be 100% sell by is going into tomorrow. But based on kind of what we just talked about in the last three scenarios, don't we have to be prepared for the long side? And here's the couple of stocks that I do like tomorrow for the long side. Meta today kind of bucked the trend. Matter of fact, if you look at Meta, you know, it had an insane move today. It's had absolutely insane move today into back to supply. And you can see Meta right now after hours is getting rejected on the supply. The point is, if Meta could get back into supply and the market does, for some reason, answer to the bell that one plus one equals seven again. There's could be another, you know, there could be a nice spike tomorrow if the market holds up. I also like Google. Remember we talked about Google last night, right? That Google any weakness, any weakness today should be brought into rising 60 minutes of 60 minutes support. Well, Google today put it inside day, which is a super duper bullish after a day that the stock broke out yesterday. And this, this move today only down 89 cents was nearly on about a half a volume bar that it did on yesterday. And again, this is a perfect example. We talked about the stock held the 60 minutes support here and round. So the question is going to today. Well, Dan, this must have been a great thing. Right. The stocks that you were talking about yesterday, NVIDIA to the downside, Tesla to the downside. You have your bounce plays. This must have been awesome. Correct. Let me explain. So this was last night's, this was last night's focus list for today. Right. So NVIDIA yesterday, we had a two side of pivot 922 to the upside, 891 to the downside. So what's the problem? Right. What's the problem? What's the major catastrophe here? Right. NVIDIA went down to 876. Correct. Yeah, it did. The problem was it went from 891. Okay. It literally went from 891 literally 891 to about 876 in the first in the last 10 minutes before the opening bell. I literally watched it go down 1617 points without me. So that's so correct. That's so. So I said, all right, no problem. Tesla's coming out with earning. Tesla's coming out with delivery numbers. Okay. Here is our pivot. 179 58 to the upside 170 to the downside. Surely we're going to catch Tesla. Right. Okay. So Tesla comes out with their, with their numbers. Horrific numbers. I think when Bush said it's one of the worst potential outcomes that they've, they've seen for the, for the estimates, the stock goes literally from 170 to 163 in a matter of three minutes, literally four or five, 10 minutes before the opening bell. Didn't have a chance to trade it. Google never got there. Reddit, you know, Reddit, Reddit went down to 44, never gave a second entry. Lula went down about 78 points. Same thing as NVIDIA and Tesla. So the problem was we had a great, great game plan. And the problem was everything went pre-market. And before somebody turns around and said, well, Dan, why don't you just trade them pre-market, pre-market liquidity and regular hours, liquidity are the difference between a hand grenade and a ham sandwich. It's a two different scenarios, right? It's a two different scenarios because all it takes is one buyer to come in on a pre-market base and they're going to skews these three, four points. So you also have opening imbalances right before the open. And if you get unlucky, you can lose $3, $4 in a matter of seconds. So that's why I really don't trade pre-market a lot of these names because again, the severity of what could happen could be a lot better with the final outcome. So I literally missed the whole day. To make the day even wrong, to put more salt on the wound is all the dips that we were watching, right? I was watching Google on that 152 remount. Guess what? It happened 10 minutes before the open and the stock decided to go up $3. So I missed that. I missed the remount on the video. You know why? Because it happened right at the open as well. Great game plan. Nothing, you know, nothing to show for it. I even took a stupid pivot on Tesla. I kind of forced the pivot a little bit. I knew support was there. Lost about a dollar and not really a big deal in it in there. But this show is one of those scenarios that sometimes you can have the greatest game plan in the world. You're super duper prepared. Everything's good. All good in the world. And you get buckets. You get absolutely nothing. But you know what? You take a step back. You realize, you know what? Life is fair. Trading is not fair. You could sit there and cry and moan and complain. Nobody cares, right? Nobody cares. The same way the market gives you super value and you get pivot after pivot after pivot and you can walk on water and everything feels great. You're also going to have a day that your game plan goes into a house of flames. You get nothing accomplished. Hey, hey, you get to talk about the day after four o'clock. Welcome to my world. So it sucks. It is what it is. The worst part about today's session was now that we've closed for the day, like I said in the start, we're at the we're at the mercy of the markets tomorrow. So now we have to pick a direction tomorrow because we are all in the middle of the channels. We have to put ourselves in a situation that either the bottom of the range needs to be attacked again or the top of the range. Because if not, we're going to have a very, very tough run tomorrow if some majority of stocks are in the middle of the ranges. The only good thing about that is you don't need 100 trades of the day. If we could get, for example, Google to wake up and start testing yesterday's channels would be great if we can get meta to wake up and reclaim back this whole channel here and reclaim back the 10 day moving average would be wonderful on the flip side to the downside. Look at Apple, right? Apple is now a stone throws away from the March loaves. If Apple could finally violate the March loaves, yeah, the damn thing could could go lower. So we're definitely watching that as well. Tesla, your guess is as good as mine. This is it again, I want to, I want to kind of read. I kind of want to read to you guys what when Bush actually said about this about this this last delivery numbers, it was pretty, it was pretty, you know, crazy, but yet the stock kind of rebounded $4 off the lows. So yet Callen cutting its price target to 160. That really wasn't a big deal. Where was it that I'm seeing here? Where was it? Where was it? Where was it? I can't find it now. Of course, when you find when you need something, you can find it. But moral of the story is, I think here it is, here it is, here it is. This is what it is. So yeah, so here's, here's what, here's what Bush, here's what what Bush said. This first quarter deliveries and unmitigated disaster. Do I even need to even talk about it more? It was a disaster. But yet the stock rallied, the stock literally rallied right off to keep some reason. E signal has these these fake wicks and destroys everything we talked about. So literally from not from right from the word go, the stock just basically rallied off the open and just went sideways for the rest of the day. So this is one of those days, guys, years ago, you know, 2022, 23 years ago, I would have been sitting there complaining and moaning and, oh, I can't believe it. It would have taken it personally, and it would have drained my mental capacity. You know what? It sucks. It's over. Get on with your life, right? Get on with your life. Tomorrow should be hopefully a better and seamless day. But hey, the most important part is we are prepared. We're going to continue to be prepared every single day. Majority of times your game plan will get confirmed. Sometimes, you know, the market has a very sick sense of humor. Sometimes it will go up in flames and you get a big nothing in your Easter basket and you will like it. And that's it, guys. So tomorrow, I am watching potentially, if Tesla starts testing the bottom of the channel here, let's see if they can possibly have gotten rid of the buyer that they were trying to fight with all day today. I am definitely watching for tomorrow. Google, if the market continues to be strong, I'm watching meta. Tomorrow, if the market continues to be strong, I am watching Apple. Tomorrow, if it loses the bottom rain share, let me see what else I like for tomorrow. Let me see. Let me see. Let me see. Let me see. Let me see. Let me see. Let me see. Amazon looks okay. Amazon looks okay. Looks a lot better than the other needs. Still needs to get above the channel from a couple of days ago. overall guys that the theme going into tomorrow guys is patience. Okay, it's patience. Since we are in the middle of the ranges, we're going to need a very, very clear sign of what happens next, right? That's a very, very important message tomorrow. We didn't close at the bottom. We didn't close at the top. We closed in the middle. So literally you can flip a coin and see what happens tomorrow. But again, do not anticipate folks. If you anticipate you I promise you are completely disadvantaged. I always tell the webinar every single day, we are looking at a reward to risk ratio. When your game plan gets blown up, it gets flipped around. Now you're looking at a risk to reward ratio. That's not the way you want to trade you want to trade from a position of strength, not a possession of weakness guys have a great night everybody God bless. Hope everybody is doing well. Short memory with the one lost or indifferent today. Short memory. Life is over right life. Excuse me. Life is not over. The past is the past. We don't live there anymore on to greater things for tomorrow guys. God bless. And I will see you on the video tomorrow. Take care.