 I'm Jasper Mullen, head of the IEA's communications team. And I'm joined today by IEA Executive Director, Dr. Fatih Birol, and the lead authors of the World Energy Outlook, who are our Director of Sustainability, Technologies and Outlooks, Laura Kotzi, and our Chief Energy Economist, Tim Gould. I'd like to note at the start of this event that the World Energy Outlook 2023 is available to read and download in full on our website. So if you haven't done so already, we encourage you to take a look. During today's event, Dr. Birol will provide some opening remarks, and then Ms. Kotzi and Mr. Gould will present the key findings of the report. We'll then take questions from journalists. For the journalists taking part in this press webinar, we invite you to send your questions via the Q&A function in the Zoom. You can do this at any point during the presentation, and we'll also take a two minute break right after the presentation for you to send your questions. And with that, I'll hand over to our Executive Director, Dr. Birol. Thank you very much, Jethro, and greetings to everybody from the International Energy Agency headquarters in Paris. As my colleague, Mr. Malin, mentioned, we are here to present the 2023 edition of our flagship publication, World Energy Outlook. Dear colleagues, this is an annual opportunity for the International Energy Agency to see where the world energy is heading, and what is the state of play in the global energy markets. The International Energy Outlook provides insights to these issues. And this year, as many of you know, as we read in the newspapers and several institutions do remember that this year is the 50th anniversary of the first oil shock, which had devastating effects for the global economy. And yet, dear colleagues, we are today facing a major geopolitical crisis in Middle East that could shock oil markets once again and deeply. Because many oil producing countries are in that region, and there are a lot of discussions as if this country is a part of the crisis, if this trade route is closed or not closed, these are rather difficult questions and poses serious risk at the global oil security. And this comes on top of the insecurity that we had in the natural gas markets about two years ago after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia at that time, number one, natural gas exporter of the world. Looking at these facts, how oil and natural gas markets are interwoven with the immediate geopolitical risks, I think it will be difficult to say that the oil and gas represent safe and secure choices for the consumers, for the countries worldwide. And these issues, geopolitical risks, of course, come together with another risk, which is the very fact that the climate change, the climate crisis today is more and more pronounced. As the scientists say, this year, 2023, set to be the hottest year in the history which is driven by the use of fossil fuels. In this context, World Energy Outlook looks at the future based on thousands and thousands of energy, economic, financial data. And I would like to thank here my colleagues, Lara Kozi and Tim Gult and their big team, the famous World Energy Outlook team to brought this report together and provide insights for the future. When we look at what the World Energy Outlook claims, I think there is a very legitimate reason to be hopeful about the global energy markets. For example, the first message I wanted to share with you today is that the VO, as we call it, the World Energy Outlook says that the energy world in 2030 will look very differently compared to today, only in seven years of time. And there are many important data in the report. I invite all of us to look at them carefully. And I chose four data points in the different parts of the energy production and consumption. How the 2030 will look different than today. Number one, in the transportation sector, which is very important for energy consumption, for emissions, for oil security, and oil demand as well. In terms of electric cars, dear colleagues, two years ago, only two years ago, one out of 25 cars sold in the world was electric, one out of 25. This year, one out of five cars sold is electric. And in 2030, almost every second car sold in the world will be an electric car. And these numbers are based on the current policies of the governments. For example, there may be some additional policies from governments to continue to support clean energy, electric cars, and others. Of course, this will make the numbers even more pronounced. So this was one number on the electric car. The second, on the electricity generation, very strong growth coming from solar, wind, and the others, the renewables, are pushing the fossil fuels out of the electricity generation globally, slowly but surely, 10 years ago, 70%, 70% of the global electricity generation came from fossil fuels. This year, after 10 years, this year, it is about 60%, the share of fossil fuels in the electricity generation. And 2030, even with the existing policies, the share of fossil fuels go down to 40%. A big change, again, in the electricity generation, pushing the fossil fuels slowly but surely out of the power system. Third, another example, home heating. It's a major source of electricity consumption in most parts of the world. And we see that the penetration of heat pumps and other electrical heaters, their sales, do surpass the sales of fossil fuel boilers also within this decade, making it much more sustainable. So this is the other example. Maybe I finish with a fourth example, how the world will look differently in seven years of time compared to today is the investments. Let me take another renewable source, wind, offshore wind. This year, currently, the amount of investment going to offshore wind is about half of the investment going to coal and gas power plants. But it is changing, talking with the investors, financers, utilities, we see it is changing and changing fast. And in 2030, we see the amount of money investment going to offshore wind will be three times higher than money going, the investment going to the gas and coal-fired power plants. So these are all these numbers in my view. Very important changes in our energy system are based on the current policy settings. If the governments would introduce additional policies to support the Kalyanget Transition, these numbers could be much more stronger. And these numbers I share with you and the other findings of the virtual energy outlook mean that we are going to see, after tens of years, the fossil fuel consumption, this decade will peak, coal, oil, and natural gas. Again with the current policies in place without additional policies. So this is, I think, an important turning point for the energy markets and something we are looking at the consequences of it very, very seriously. Now what does a peak mean? I try to explain and I want to say you what doesn't it mean? So this is important to make it clear. A global peak of fossil fuels doesn't mean that all the countries of the world, their fossil fuels will peak. For example, we see that the especially oil and gas consumption will increase in several developing and emerging countries while they see a sharp decline in the advanced economies. And it also doesn't mean that we do not need any more investment in oil and gas. We will still be using oil and gas and if we want to reach our climate targets less and less, but still we need that oil and gas to come to markets especially given the fact that many oil and gas fields are in decline. So we need that money definitely less than today in order to have that oil and gas declining amount of oil and gas come to the markets. And again this peak dear colleagues we see doesn't mean that we are in line with our climate targets. The alternate outlook expects that the global emissions will peak in 2025 and then decline slightly, but we are still with the current policies in place in line with a temperature increase 2.4 degrees Celsius which is much higher than the scientists tell us 1.5 is the limit. So therefore there is a need to have a much stronger clean energy policies. So this is the first message I wanted to share with you. The second message is in another part of our energy world. It is about natural gas markets. We are in the energy world we still have the fresh recent memories of the natural gas market tightness if I may say so and very high prices, volatile prices after the 24th of February two years ago and this of course create a major sense of gas insecurity, high prices and volatile markets and lots of gas supply security concerns. But the world energy outlook again looking at a project by project around the world comes up with the message that around 2025 and after substantial amount of new LNG capacities coming to the market mainly from United States and Qatar but from other countries as well and starting from 2025 the amount of new LNG coming to markets will be about 50 percent what we already have and this we expect have a impact on the gas markets around the world and at the same time this would ease the supply concerns and also put downward pressure on the prices and from that point of view it is important for the inner view natural gas exporters need to think which destination around the world they would like to sell the gas it may create challenges for the sellers and the markets will go in the direction of being a buyers market. Dear colleagues I have two other points to make before I give the floor to my friends and colleagues there is one issue which is in my view and surprisingly not much discussed which is the issue of China in the last 10 years when you look at the last 10 years and the energy markets if there is one country which determine the oil gas coal and the clean energy trends it is by far China China's role in the energy markets is outsized if I give you a few numbers in the last 10 years about two-thirds of the global oil consumption growth came from China about one-third of the global natural gas consumption growth came from China and almost all the growth in coal consumption growth came from China and yet Chinese economy in the last 10 years increased over six percent per year on average which draw this the strong growth of energy consumption but now China is changing China changed the world in the last 10 years and then China itself is changing Chinese economy is slowing down and Chinese economy is rebalancing Chinese economy doesn't need much more steel much more a new transportation infrastructure investment doesn't need much more new the stocks of housing not much more cement so therefore the slowing down of the Chinese economy and rebalancing we believe will have major impact on the demand for fossil fuels and as such it is a another element to take into account when we look at the future of energy together with what is happening in the clean energy domain if you want to understand the global energy markets in a objective and in a holistic way I would like to finish my pick up from this very rich World Tire Network with one final remark we are approaching the COP 28 going to take place in Dubai only a few weeks from now and one of the reasons why we decided to publish this World Tire Network earlier than our usual time is with the hope to provide a basis for the decision makers going to Dubai to see the how the energy world which is very important for climate change discussion looks like so we are working closely with the all the governments who want to have a good result from Dubai including the COP 28 presidency and we are thankful to all of the governments including the presidency for coming up with all these efforts to come up with some good results from the intention as a point of view we work every single day on the energy and climate related issues in order to consider COP 28 is a successful summit which we very much hope to see we have five criteria number one we would like to see that the governments around the world in Dubai agree to triple the renewable capacity between now and 2030 second we would like the governments to agree that they double the improvement of energy efficiency globally again between now and 2030 we would like to see oil and gas companies commit themselves to climate targets by taking some measures including a major reduction in the methane emissions 75 percent by 2030 fourth we would like to see that the advanced economies and in the internship financial institutions do come up with the financial mechanisms in order to support the clean energy financing in developing countries fifth and the last criteria that we would consider COP 28 to be a successful one is we would like to see that the governments in Dubai take measures agree to take measures for an orderly decline of fossil fuel use including no new unabated coal plants to be built so these are the five criteria coming from the IEA and we hope that these criteria will be fulfilled in Dubai and we will have a good meeting as a world coming from Dubai with good results and give good news around the world with this if I may with my tanks I would now turn to my colleague first to Lara Kozzi and to Tim Kult but Tim wants to go first Tim why don't you go first please thank you very much indeed executive director um when we were putting together this edition of the world energy outlook we were very conscious of the risks that we continue to see to energy security the fragility in energy markets and also more recently some of the echoes of the first oil shock 50 years ago so we thought we'd begin with a few reflections on where we stand relative to the world of 1973 and what you're looking at on the screen now is the global energy mix 50 years ago and today and it's immediately visible how some of the changes that were set in motion by the first oil shock led to a significant reduction in the share of oil in the global mix and I think it's also interesting to consider these in absolute terms and you can immediately feel how much the energy system has expanded over the last 50 years and some 80 percent of that growth has come from outside the advanced economies so it's come from emerging and developing economies around the world and we see a similar dynamic when we consider what's happened to oil demand here's the structure of oil demand and that shift towards emerging and developing economies and you can also see in absolute terms how we've seen almost a doubling in oil demand over the last 50 years and one interesting data point 1973 there were 50 million cars on the road around the world now more than 1.3 billion so well over 20 times more cars on the road now than there were 50 years ago and comparing that shift with the shift in overall oil demand speaks to the way that the composition of oil use has changed but it also speaks to the enduring importance of efficiency measures and more recently in electrification in keeping a lid on oil transport demand and finally wanted to show you some electricity data and this is the electricity generation mix worldwide and you can see oil exiting the system and renewables coming in at scale and renewables now accounting for around 30 percent of generation and that's up 10 percentage points from where we were 10 years ago and that trend towards electrification and towards low emissions generation is set to continue and I think that speaks to three important themes that we are picking up in this year's world energy outlook the first of them is the enduring importance of energy security and particularly for a new synthesis a new alignment of energy security and emissions reduction goals as we move through transitions second the shift in the you often hear that the the global energy mix is big it's difficult to move but shifts do happen and they have can happen quite quickly especially after times of strain after times of crisis and we saw that in the aftermath of 1973 and today we have a much larger range of cost competitive clean energy options to choose from and the final third point is it's going to take a much larger range of countries at different stages of development to solve our common challenges and that speaks to the importance of international cooperation which is another theme that will be coming back to now looking forward it's very clear that we are going to look at some major transformation over the years to come and we identify some key structural shifts that will make us live in 2030 in a very different world than today the executive director mentioned the unstoppable growth of clean energy technologies he mentioned the very large sales in electric vehicles and this trend that is continue is going to continue through the 2030s but what will it mean in in our lives when we will be walking in the streets in 2030 you will actually see 10 times more electric vehicles than today importantly we have been describing the clean energy transition up to now as a real another type of transformation another addition but what's going to happen this decade is actually this is going to shift from an addition to a substitution what does it mean this you will see more electric cars but you're actually going to start seeing less of the conventional vehicles that Tim Gould mentioned earlier it means that around 2030 you will see more reviews and less conventional car running in our streets this will have huge implications for oil markets now this type of transformation of shifts from renewables to clean energy away from fossil fuels is going to be a common theme a lot across many sectors the key and front runner is clearly the power sector we have seen again and again solar breaking records now the turnaround is happening in this decade what turn around the turnaround is clean energy technologies actually accounting for the largest part of generation globally today renewables account for around 30 percent of this generation in 2030 they will account for 50 percent but it's not only about renewables nuclear we're seeing a pickup of those new additions and together all this clean energy technologies will reduce the share of fossil fuels first below 50 percent and then approaching 40 percent in 2030 Dr. Birol mentioned also transformations in the heating sector so it's really going to be across the entire energy system across the entire energy uses so this unstoppable force of clean energy technologies is one of the structural changes we are identifying there is another one which is equally major and is the Chinese economy is transforming the Chinese economy is maturing so China will add to the global economy as much as growth as it had over the past 10 years but the type of growth that China will undergo and is undergoing even now as you speak it's very different from what we have seen over the past decades is a growth that is requires much less energy than in the past so while producing the same new amount of value it will require a fraction just 10 percent of the energy that it added over the past 10 years now as you're talking about the largest energy consumer in the world this will transform and trigger through through the entire energy system so here you're seeing the type of change that China will go through and this is what will mean for energy markets China accounted for over 50 percent of the growth in global energy demand what's going to happen to coal markets now we are going to see two major shifts one in the power sector the other in industry that are the core coal demand centers for China today China added in the first nine months of this year as much as solar as the entire world last year this continue push for clean energy we'll see a turnaround in coal use in the power sector similarly we're seeing similar transformation for energy intensive industries Dr. Biral mentioned them earlier cement steel that we'll see again a peak and then a decline as we are seeing at the same time big growth in areas like semiconductors solar PV electric vehicles that require a lot of electricity and this electricity is going to be mostly clean similar trends for oil more and more electric vehicles are being sold 38 percent of sales in September where electric vehicles this is going to continue to grow and will lead to a peak in Chinese oil use by the 2030s natural gas is set to continue to increase but at a lower pace than over the past decades now when we put these major shifts on the one hand the the continuous growth of clean energy technologies and on the other hand the transformation of China economy and energy then this leads to peaks first in global coal use then oil and then natural gas as you can see very clearly in this graph it doesn't mean that the world will all look the same advanced economies will use less of fossil fuels but emerging economies will continue to see those uses rising india emerges as the largest clean energy growth center the middle east will drive natural gas demand growth of course there are many uncertainties surrounding the outlook some of those you see them in the news on a daily basis but we would like to bring to your attention one that is maybe less visible we are seeing and this you're seeing the example of of solar but it's true across different clean energy technologies we are really seeing ample supplies of new solar coming to the market the plants of manufacturers around the world are big this is not an issue industry anymore this is an industry with billions hundreds of billions invested in capital the size is similar to a quarter of the global car market so it's huge with millions of workers in it and it's just set to expand to double from today's level now if you look at our demand for those solar panels they imply rather low output for those new plants today the healthy part of the industry is actually seeing much higher than this 40 percent operations that this number would imply they would see healthy parts of the industry see now 70 75 percent of of of rates this would imply a much higher a much higher solar uptake around 800 gigawatts and why is this meaningful and important this is meaningful and important because if you were able to absorb these potential production then the outlook for fossil fuels will look different in particular for natural gas and for coal both of them we will see an even earlier peak and a faster decline afterwards so this type of increases in manufacturing capacity we are seeing them not only in solar we are seeing them in electric vehicles we are seeing them in batteries we are seeing in heat pumps in certain parts of the world so they do present an incredible opportunity to fasten even further the clean energy transition i'd like now to pick up the story with some words on on natural gas and because a big change is coming in natural gas markets as mentioned by the executive director and it's coming from lng so back in 2010 lng was already a big global industry but it was dominated by point-to-point contracts between major exporters and importers now if we fast forward to 2022 we had an industry transformed and liquid deep markets accompanied the growth of the us as a major exporter and that was really a critical factor in enabling the world to ride out the storm caused by the cuts to russian pipeline supplies but gas consumers around the world were left with the bruises from a turbulent year and for moment the conversation about gas continues to be around risks of price volatility and security of supply but that is set to change there's a huge wave of new lng projects that have started construction or taken a final investment decision that's an additional 250 billion cubic meters per year of liquefaction capacity by 2030 and that's equal to almost half of today's global lng supply and a particularly large increase starting in 2025 for a couple years after that so that eases price concerns eases supply concerns and but europe is not going to take more and neither are the established markets in asia so high expectations from the global gas industry that emerging and developing economies particularly in asia will need a lot more gas and our projections show that to some degree but they are more modest in our outlook so their promise is to be extremely strong competition among suppliers for these markets especially if china's growth is weaker than expected and those ample supplies of lng in the second half of the decade that has important implications also for russia means very limited opportunities in our view for russia to secure additional pipeline markets in asia so russia's share of internationally traded gas used to be 30 in 2021 and this is halved by 2030 i like to say a few words also about the dynamics for global energy investment because the changes that we've discussed have significant implications for the capital flows going into the energy sector and what you're looking at on the screen is how the trend for fossil fuel spending has evolved in recent years it's now at around one trillion dollars per year now we've talked about the end of the growth era for fossil fuels that does not mean an end to fossil fuel investment as the executive director mentioned we continue to need investment in fossil fuels in all of our scenarios that doesn't disappear overnight the big question is how much and that's perception that that analytical conclusion has shifted over time if we look back at our projections in previous years we did see that we would need an increase in oil and gas investment in order to balance markets in the stated policy scenario that is no longer the case and of course we also need to focus on the glaring risks for the climate so we need to accelerate the momentum on the clean energy side as well and that's indeed what's happened since 2020 there's been an increase of around 40 percent in in clean energy investment and if you move this through to 2030 in that stated policy scenario you can see that we'd be on track for spending of well over two trillion dollars each year on clean energy by 2030 but if we want to get on track for a 1.5 degree scenario that would need to double over this decade so there's an urgent need to get more clean energy projects moving particularly in emerging and developing economies outside china and that's challenging in today's climate of high borrowing costs and elevated debt levels but that's really the task that was mentioned that is also being taken to cop 28 in dubai i'd like to also pick up a little bit the energy security theme and on some emerging challenges that the ia is very focused on so this figure shows a number of commodities that are either used directly as fuels or indirectly as inputs to crucial clean energy technologies and on the vertical access that's market size it's shown on a log scale so we're moving from major global markets in the case of oil and gas to much smaller ones in the case of rare earth elements and this is the situation in 2017 and it's immediately visible that the level of concentration is greater for most critical minerals than for oil and gas you're showing on the horizontal there the market share of the top three producer countries around the world and i want to zoom in on some of these critical minerals with a focus on the processed minerals so concentration here refers to the processed or refined product not the extracted oars and between 2017 and 2022 two things happen one is that the market for critical minerals is growing rapidly as clean energy transitions pick up speed so the data points are moving up the screen and but the second thing is that they're moving generally to the right so they're in the direction of greater concentration so refined nickel the market share of the top three producers rose from 45 percent to 66 percent you also saw refined cobalt moving to the right on the screen other elements were high before and stayed there how does this evolve to 2030 so we are starting to see more diversified patterns of investment coming through and but the majority of midstream projects are still being developed in today's dominant regions that's true in the case of planned lithium chemical plants for for China it's true for planned nickel refining facilities in in Indonesia so we see some improvements in diversity when we look at all the announced projects but this will take time and that points to the continued need for vigilance and concerted efforts and to diversify supply to reduce potential vulnerabilities in clean energy supply chains and it's a final word on that it's not only a supply question we need to focus very much also on innovation mineral substitution and recycling as elements of a critical minerals security strategy and what does this all mean for emissions and for climate change so the executive director opened saying that 2023 is set to be the hostess here recorded in human history our projections for steps so for without additional climate policies imply a peak in emissions in 2025 unfortunately the speaking emission in 2025 don't translate in any cooling in the world in fact 2023 will result in being the coolest of the years we will see throughout this century even if a mission peak and starts declining without additional climate policies we will break record temperatures year after year after year the only way to stop emissions from rising is to actually get to net zero emissions so the only way to stop temperature from rising is to get emissions to net zero and this is why we have released our net zero report nearly a month ago the reason being that we still see a way to limit temperature increase below 1.5 degrees our executive director mentioned what are the key actions for us to look at from now to cope and beyond so we are calling and looking at five significant actions that could give the chance for the globe to limit temperatures within 1.5 degrees the first is really about the electricity sector tripling renewable capacity of course a pathway is going to be different in each country of the world some will increase nuclear but the key point is reducing emission in the power sector doubling improvements of energy efficiency those two key actions together with policies necessary to reduce fossil fuel use will lead to the necessary decline of fossil fuel use to 20 30 a 25 percent decrease limiting warming in the short term will hinge not only on actions on the CO2 side but also methane where the role for oil and gas and the energy industry large is incredibly important we will be releasing a specific analysis on this soon but the numbers are clear at least 75 percent decrease in fossil fuel methane finally something that we've been working on for years now and absolutely essential is going to see we need to see a significant increase in financial flows towards clean energy in emerging and developing economies to conclude very clearly this wheel shows one thing that for the two challenges that we're facing today energy security and climate change the long lasting solutions to these double crises are the same clean energy technologies and they are here with us ready to be deployed thank you thank you very much for the presentation we now have some time to take questions from journalists so we invite the journalists in attendance to send your questions through the Q&A function in the zoom if you haven't done so already and please do mention your media outlet along with your question we're just going to take a two-minute break to give you a chance to enter your questions and we'll be right back hi welcome back so thank you very much for the questions we have quite a few to get through so we're going to do our best to cover as many of them as possible the first one we're going to take a couple of the time when there's some overlap in the areas because there are so many from Isabel Anne from Liberation in France who asks I'd like to know how you respond to OPEC's criticisms about IA's peak oil assessment why are IA's projections so different from the OPEC projections we have another similar question along this lines from Aidan Callick from Argus Media and then also a question from S&P Global around oil security energy security what risks to energy supply and infrastructure do you see from the current Middle East crisis so I think Dr. Birrell will take those first a couple of questions okay thank you maybe they are both oil and OPEC related but maybe I start with the with the our projections versus the colleagues from OPEC I have no doubt that the OPEC colleagues are looking at the global oil markets from an objective perspective from their point of view but our data shows that the global oil demand will peak before 2030 driven by what is happening and the clean energy technologies especially in the transportation sector and also economic shifts is my colleague explained in depth Chinese economy is changing significantly and China was in the last 10 years by far the single most important driver of global oil consumption growth about two thirds if Chinese economy slows down and change it is a structure and becomes a lighter economy it is demand for oil will go down and we know that China today produces about half of the modern half of the the electric cars around the world so therefore our expectation for global oil demand looking at the clean energy and the economic prospects is different than those of our colleagues in OPEC secretariat but we are always of course happy to discuss and compare notes but not only because not only OPEC secretary at JETRO some oil companies especially North America have similar expectations on the oil markets my humble suggestion is that the oil executives around the world not only talk among themselves about the future of oil markets I very much suggest that they have a dialogue with other parts of the energy economy namely car manufacturers the solar panel manufacturers heat pump manufacturers consumers around the world and the the investors it may well lead to a better and in my view more balanced expectation of the global markets the second question is about the what could happen as a result of the I think it was from SNP if I am not wrong the in Middle East of course we don't know we don't know how the the political station will evolve there but what we know is that the political tensions are very very strong and as it happens the about one third of the global oil exports come from that very region not only major oil producers and exporters are there but a major trade routes are in that region as well as such this the major geopolitical crisis that may lead to and once again an oil shock of the 50 years we have seen and we very much hope that if we not go there there will be a peaceful solutions among the parties and that we don't see such volatility in the markets which is a bad news for everybody especially those in the developing and emerging countries thank you very much dr. Birrell for those answers so the questions continue to flow in there's a few around investment which which I might put to our chief energy economist Tim Gould so one from Martin Mayrath who I believe is with Korea and Austria which technologies are included in the projection of investments in clean energy technologies two trillion by 2030 based on today's policies and martin lists nuclear carbon capture etc and how much of the expected investments is in renewable generation we then switch a bit towards fossil fuel investment let me just find this one clarification requested from Rafiq Glatter from energy intelligence you said investment is still needed in fossil fuels but does your recent call that no investment in new long lead projects still holds so that was one of the key messages from our recent net zero roadmap that Laura Kotzi mentioned and then one more just around I guess the future of fossil fuels from Nick Coleman at S&P asking you have OPEC accounting for 45 percent of oil supply in 2050 under the announced pledges scenario can you specify the source of that production will there be a comeback by African producers or will it be increasingly concentrated in the Middle East and the Gulf so Tim if you throwing a few balls your way let's see how you're juggling is go for it thanks very much death row and thanks very much to the colleagues for the questions if I take the the last one first if we look at our projections for OPEC production in that announced pledges scenario then what we see in practice is we don't have much of an uptick from African producers their share falls over time it's really those Middle East and Gulf producers that see an increased share in overall output and then I'm turning to the question from Rafiq Glatter so you said investment is still needed but does your recent call that no investment in you long lead time long lead projects still hold so I think we need to be careful here which scenario we're talking about in terms of the specifics but in all of our scenarios continued investment in oil and gas is needed as I was mentioning the question in is then how much and that really depends on how much momentum we have behind clean energy transitions and so the point I was making during the presentation is that in the world that we see today based on today's policy settings momentum behind the the clean energy transition is sufficiently strong that a conclusion that we reached in the past no longer holds so in the past in that scenario we found that we needed an increase in oil and gas investment in order to balance markets that is no longer the case so the amount that is being invested today in that stated policy scenario is the same as we would need in 2030 so that you know when you hear organizations or companies talking about the need for additional investment you could have that conclusion in mind but if we were to get on track for a 1.5 degree scenario so our net zero emissions by 2050 scenario there too we would still need oil and gas investment but we would need much less because the decline in fossil fuel demand the declines in oil and gas demand are sufficiently steep in that 1.5 degree scenario that you could meet that demand through continued investment in existing fields but no new long lead time investments and so that's the the way this plays out in our in our different scenarios and I think there was one last question which if I recall rightly was about what makes up our clean energy investment numbers that we had two trillion dollars in 2030 in the stated policy scenario and how much of that goes to renewable generation and the answer there is around 650 billion dollars out of that two trillion is for renewable generation and I think it's important to have in mind that renewable generation is only one part of that clean energy picture one other part which we've emphasized very strongly in recent weeks is on the infrastructure side we need to pick up the investment in grids and there's a significant uptick required to 2030 in grid spending because as that analysis highlighted there is 3000 gigawatts worth of new renewable projects waiting in queues and that could be unlocked if we accelerate the pace of change on the grid side and alongside the power sector we also have clean fuels and we have electrification we have energy efficiency and that altogether makes up the clean energy investment numbers that you saw on the screen thank you thank you very much Tim for covering that range of questions and now we've got a few for Lara Kotzi and our director of outlooks one from Ronald Kim Argus Media in your stated policies scenarios scenario unabated coal fired power peaks in China around 2025 and shortly after 2030 in India what would be the factors that could accelerate or delay this timetable and there's another question around demand in China and India and maybe that we could add on this one on oil demand Lara and maybe see what you think if it fits saying your case for lower Chinese oil demand trajectory is compelling but is India not just going to take its place as the engine of world oil demand so I guess questions on Chinese and Indian coal demand and then following that on on oil demand and the shifting forces there and then also a question speaking of fossil fuels from Philip Rues of I think of energy intelligence saying several oil producing countries are saying that the problem is not fossil fuels but CO2 and therefore suggests that carbon capture utilisation storage and removals consult that they alone can solve the problem do you have any comments on this and and and not to overload you but there was just one question of clarification maybe from France and for from Lorian Delano just asking if we could state when the peak in fossil fuel consumption comes in this decade in the stated policies so that just to clarify so thank you very much let's start with the uncertainties around unabated coal so there is something that I would say is certainly not uncertain and is the fact that electricity demand in China and India is going to continue to grow very strongly now the key question is how quickly will the countries be able to roll out the clean energy technologies and whether this growth in clean energy technologies and generation will be sufficient to see those peaks in unabated unabated coal currently the manufacturing for example of solar is ample but where we are seeing the difficulties is on as you said that as Tim Gould mentioned earlier is the grids is the batteries deployment so is being able to integrate this new amount of renewables in the systems so for us the uncertainty is going to be really about the ability of the countries to integrate the fast growing amount of renewables so if we are able to unlock the grid bottlenecks if you are able to roll out batteries fast enough then we would be able to see an even earlier peak in unabated coal use if the electricity demand is going to grow faster than this roll out then it will come later the question about China versus India oil demand will India overtake China as the main demand center I think there is one number that illustrates well enough the point that the size of the Indian oil market is just a fraction is around the third of Chinese oil demand today so certainly we are seeing India oil demand growing continuing to grow for the years to come but China will in fact be the largest oil market in in 2030 at around 19 million dollars a day so it's just it's just huge and expecting that this shift shift and turn around the weapon this decade is not that yet there finally on carbon capture utilization and storage and its role in CO2 emissions and in abatement in general very clearly we have been seeing CCS being a part of the solutions for many years at the IA we have been talking about this unfortunately when we track the technology progress what we're seeing is rather disappointing CCS is not growing as much as other technologies as solar as it is and certainly there is a role to play we are highlighting this also in our net zero report but it shouldn't be used as an excuse to abate the CO2 emissions and fossil fuel use thank you very much Laura so we've got time just for one last question and this one is for Dr. Birrell saying you were at COP 21 in Paris many other cops now are heading into COP 28 in Dubai and as your report shows time is running out for for 1.5 the 1.5 Celsius global warming goal of the Paris agreement and will enough be achieved at this COP for that so Dr. Birrell yeah I mean this question is right in my view this COP 28 is as critical as the COP 21 in Paris when I compare the conditions going to Paris COP 21 and when I compare the look at the conditions today there are definitely some advantages and disadvantages of the current context if I can summarize when we had Paris agreement 2015 the good news was that there was an a mood of international cooperation among the countries to find the solution of our common problem of climate crisis so the many the major emitters small countries big countries they came together the leaders it was a major topic and the common agenda for many countries and when we look at today COP 28 for me the single most important challenge is instead of this mood and atmosphere of the cooperation international cooperation among the countries like in Paris 2015 now we see an intelligent fragmentation of the countries so for me this is the single most important challenge among many other challenges and barriers but there is also of course advantages compared to today and when we compare today and the Paris today we have already readily available clean energy technologies which are cost effective solar wind electric electric cars nuclear power energy efficiency many important clean energy technologies and they are cost effective we just need to expand them strongly and when we had Paris those technologies were many of them were still in the beginning of being competitive and it read a small shares in the global energy mix so to compare their plus and minuses in the COP 28 here advantages and disadvantages but as the international agency we will do everything we can in order to have a good outcome from COP 28 I think this is the last question if I can finish by thanking all the first of all the viewers here for following this event my colleagues just told me that this event about one hour now followed by over 70,000 people across the world thank you very much we are humbled with that maybe bigger than a major champion sneak match etc we thank you all very much and I once again I want to thank the two lead authors of this important report Lara Kozi Timgut and always the famous virtual energy outlook team thank you very much Dr. Birrell that is indeed all we have time for as you mentioned we've gone well over an hour over time to squeeze in as many questions as we can if any journalists have questions that didn't get answered during the Q&A please do follow up with us at the IEA press office and we'll get back to you as soon as we can I echo Dr. Birrell's thanks to the report authors and also to the journalists who further for the excellent questions and to everyone following along a reminder that the full world energy outlook 2023 report is available for free on our website IEA.org and there's a lot of great analysis and data in there to explore so please do take a look and that's all for today thank you and goodbye