 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Thursday the 23rd of July. I hope you're doing well Don't forget to follow me on Twitter as well my handle here. This is my profile I'll be tweeting throughout the day and the week some interesting infographics So feel free to also message me on there if you ever have any questions at all always happy to help but let's just get into the briefing for this morning and look at what's on the agenda for the day ahead and Fairly similar in a way of me talking through some a couple of key long-term Technical levels which have been breached. We're going to have a look at the euro again We're gonna also drop in on the US equity market obviously some aftermarket earnings yesterday from Tesla and Microsoft We can talk about and we can talk about gold and silver had a lot of questions yesterday about silver in particular Because if anything that's been outperforming gold and gold in itself has been putting in a pretty robust performance So I wanted to bring that to the table as well So looking at the markets this morning from an overall sentiment point of view Yeah, I'd say it's moderately positive in terms of the European and US index futures are trading Higher at the moment the S&P 500 is just above its weekly high at this point in time The NASDAQ well, we're going to bring up these charts individually and we'll have a look Is moving a touch higher about 70 points this morning consequently did that accept 75 Elsewhere the Dixie still remains fairly depressed. That's down about point one two percent So it is below and has found some resistance in the overnight session from that 95 remember saying yes That's such a key level. We're now through that and it's and finding some upside resistance there now Which doesn't poad well for the the greenback at the moment for all those fundamental reasons we discussed in yesterday's briefing So still keeping the euro fairly buoyant at the moment in the oil market a pretty flat overall Still maintaining though around that 42 dollar hand or so breach of those longer term resistance levels They've got taken out a few days ago And still remaining fairly supportive of price for the time being amid the overall global tone That we're seeing Overnight in Asia a little bit mixed I would say in terms of how those local indices in Asia pack region performed a little bit of concerns Over the renewed senior u.s. Tensions uncertainty as well about this timing of the American stimulus package We've been talking about since Monday whether or not they can get something together more concrete before the end of Certain programs expiration at the end of the month still somewhat debatable The main thing there of course has been about China In terms of the overnight story the State Department in America yesterday Ordering the consulate to shut to protect American Property in American private information that being the Chinese consulate China then vowed to retaliate after that u.s. Forced the closure of that the consulate in Houston Again, this is one of the most populous Towns in America and the consulate is just one of five that China maintains in the u.s Alongside its embassy in Washington. So this is the kind of next evolution if you like of the ongoing trade war Markets in a Western sense if you're going off this morning's open in Europe somewhat brushing that aside I mean it did develop yesterday as a headline But something to just keep half an eye on But let's have a look at a couple of charts and I can wrap in a few stories as well for me to to talk about first of all just want to have a look at the Commodity market. I'm going to start here with This is gold so gold this morning. We're already up another ten dollars here We're just taking out the overnight Asia Pacific highs Which was at 1875? We're just testing there at the moment You can see quite a nice actual floor to price going forward on the intraday perspective Just around that pivot level. You've got those Relative highs and lows that you can see from some of the price action activity Around that pivot level on the intraday around 1861 So if we did get any pullback that'd be a decent area of support to be looking at if we fail to breach here Perhaps we might see a bit of a range play between 62 and 75 today But again that should provide if any pullback a strong level perhaps to reassert any long positions in the short term But not going to talk too much about gold here kind of discussed that Storing quite a lot of detail yesterday had a lot of questions of course about silver And this came after you know, we had a big pop-in prices two days ago And this was this move here. You can see technically just breaching around the 2176 mark However, it was it was quickly retraced in yesterday morning's European open pretty much back to the tick in fact of price action you can see here and Then we've had quite a bit of volatility But generally a continuation of the upward trend in silver and then we peaked out in the early Asia Pacific hours and around 2367 and a half here looking at the silver future One thing I'm looking at here is those weekly trend line Just going back all the way until you know markets really start to pick up a bit of pace from Monday's open And you can see you've had multiple retests You've also got the daily pivot here in close proximity to around the load It was seen initially at the European open. So I'll be keeping an eye on that as we go through today's session Silver volatility is pretty high at the moment. So it is quite wippy in its price action But any further movement higher than I'd be keeping an eye at around 2335 Which is around the area where the price reacted to in the overnight Asia Pacific session And we found a peak in price activity yesterday afternoon going into the early hours of the US trade And then anything above there would be targeting around that 2365 and a half So that's the shorter term intraday type of levels that I'll be looking at on the longer term This is on a weekly chart in fact looking at silver And you can see here it's quite a bit of a different setup to gold. Remember gold on a much longer time frame We are not that far off. You remember this was a discussion point from yesterday We were talking about city groups targets the all-time high We are you know only around Or less than 50 bucks away from there at the moment in gold and I really do see that happening a test of that level In the coming Days actually City having that probability about further push up to 2000 as a psychological target if we were to breach those levels But if you look here the point being gold Relative to all-time highs in close proximity at the moment Whereas silver was still a long way off where we were trading back all the way in 2011 for example here then we have breached some very important targets here technically for silver prices In the recent trade here was the big one that's really catapulted price considerably higher has been the initial break that we had really about Two weeks ago or so when we got through 1892 You can see this was a really big area for silver on on prior occasions Back in 2013 14 as an area of support Resistance in 2016 and also 2019 2020 until we've busted out here on the upside and we've also taken out that high Of 2016 which does put us at the highest levels now. We've traded in several years for silver Now we're right here now at the 23 mark this morning In fact just above it which does trade above then at high that was seen in the q4 period of 2013 And that does then give the next upside target really if you're looking at technicals quite a clear one then up Toward 25 and that again the latest city note to incorporate around these precious metals They've said is around this area of 25 is a six to 12 months target But given the way in volatility and momentum behind the silver trade at the moment That that is a clear target and that wouldn't take six to 12 months I think just given the bullish nature of the product at the moment It wouldn't be surprised if we get there in a matter of days or weeks rather than months Beyond that point then the other key areas here in silver just looking much more on the the medium-term horizon $26 above then again is quite a crucial level from a technical standpoint you've got the support and where the market bounced aggressively in both 2011 and 2010 And then city same note. They're looking at a ball case scenario of 30 bucks And that will put us back up to where we were trading really early 2013 type territory So a couple of points here and and differences is what on observations behind silver I've just have tweeted this on my account if you want to have a greater read But I thought this was a really great summary that I read on Refinitiv this morning And they were asking the question which a lot of people are at the moment is silver the new gold It's kind of like is the euro the new dollar in the currency market And there's three key points here. So I'm just going to read them out one over time They do move in tandem, but correlation is not as strong as some may perceive So a lot of people just think you know the precious metal space in terms of gold silver They'll just move in uniform in a tight correlated fashion That is true to a some degree But like with any correlation It does tend to move in regards to you know, how strong it is at any point in time The second point here is silver is viewed as a better reflationary hedge Given its support from industrial and tech applications So this is quite important because at the moment there are some concerns about supply constraints There's also elevated silver a little bit beyond that of just gold as a traditional kind of safe haven But also this reflationary hedge of people are more optimistic than about the The the narrative the story and the recovery of the global market going forward Well, then silver is a much more regular frequent component in industrial and tech applications And so therefore it's much more Sensitive to overall macro environment you could say So the perception of that economic future And the shape of the recovery globally is going to be quite key for ascertaining the fundamental directional bias for silver And the third here half of silver demand is electronics connectors Etc And also not for getting jewelry as well So over the past few months people have been focused on gold as a safe haven hedge in an uncertain macro environment But silver they're suggesting could continue to outperform And but the reflationary trade has already gone ahead of itself They're suggesting long gold seems a lower beta play and still offers the macro safe haven status While silver is more sensitive to economic narrative change. So I think that is also quite an important And in good question to ask yourself with any trade is that yes It's kind of like bigger reward greater risk though associated with silver Comparative to gold seemingly being a lower beta play here. Both then do have this underlying same fundamental support on certain narratives But silver for these other reasons could then be more susceptible for reactionary type moves to Force coming information data the kovid developments and and so on and so forth That's certainly quite interesting And this is a chart looking at the performance To put it in some comparative terms about how just aggressive then the the some of the recent movements have been here in comparison from one to the other Okay, this is looking at volatility but looking at some other charts and some other things to have a look at And I just want to have a quick look at equity markets And just going to have a look at the NASDAQ NASDAQ has been such a such a roller coaster of activity this week It's been super interesting and we can talk about some of the equity earnings as well that we've had From a price point of view on the upside So obviously from the weekly price action that was also last week And this in fact is the all-time high quite a definitive marker now on the upside around that just above the 11,000 level 11,059 In the near-term price activity though, we have formed What you could say is a is a near-term range of price From what is quite a decent and strong level of support going back to Resistance points on the 9th the 15th and also on the 20th before the breakout higher that we we had We had a retest of that yesterday, of course as well and around the Late part of the european afternoon So the upper and low extremities in the near-term be keeping on 10 8 99 That was the over the high from yesterday basically the Main part of the range that was formed yesterday Down to the low which was that more relevant support point which also coincides with the s1 today So a pretty decent level there on the downside to keep an eye on Should we start to reverse course on the upside? There's a bit of a cluster here of resistance points being that high I've just spoken about but then the asia-pacific high from yesterday And then the us late session high and support point on the ascent that we had at the beginning of the week So upside kind of obstacles to some out here. You've got 10 8 99 You then got the 10 9 16 yesterday's asia-pacific high with the r1 on the daily pivots And then 10 9 32 On any further push on to the upside on the s&p It's similarly Quite bullish this morning and it originally at the european open We're just managing to get head above What was the the high point that we printed? Two days ago and you can see the market on those wicks just pulling back and finding a bit of support now having breached that level With a bit of force this morning initially as europe is coming to the market Looking on a daily continuation then We continue to see now this grind out and I really don't see as I've said kind of all this week Any obstacles now Barring any shock unexpected events that we don't get closer up into water test at 3300 now that we've come this far Ruining a couple of banknotes this morning Including one from jp morgan quite a lot of them Excuse me technical analysts are looking up at around a key level At the level of I mean it's a little bit different in the cash than it is here I'm looking at the future, but it would coincide with 33 28 So obviously you've got the the round figure to tackle first at 3300 But then they're looking at the gap down in price action We had from the 21st to the 24th And that being the high as well when we were pushing up at the time to all-time highs in the latter part of january So here they're suggesting is a really strong area of Or a key test technically so at this point in time Still got about another 25 points to go until we get up to the first target And so all things remaining equal I don't see any reason not to believe that the market doesn't continue on its push higher To grind it out up to those levels for the time being And then the euro final chart we'll have a quick look at I mean this has been such a such a nice Combination of fundamentals and technicals coming together in that longer-term picture Then we have now hit hard our target. So I know alex will be You know just happy that finally this trader has played off after he was kind of stalking it for for weeks You know, but he's you know made a good two points on this trade now And I know he's he's riding this out all the way up that he's firmly believes that this is going to Going to take out that 118 and push up to those those summer 18 highs So I'm sure some some of the trade coming off at around these levels Now this does have longer term Significance you can see here if I just put on these rectangles In the euro I mean we're going back here for a number of years in price activities. So 116 Kind of next target has been achieved this morning And for the time being Although this is a technical point of resistance I still don't see too much then to detract from the continuation of what we're discussing yesterday The dollar still needs to be watched and I early anticipated that weakness will continue to remain evident in the contrast of the euro kind of positivity at the moment On that euro positivity story quite interesting thing I did read this morning and we were talking about the success of the recovery plan has been the next kind of You know big event for europe to help bolster those european assets equities In mainland europe outperforming some of the other global counterparts But the latest thing here i've read this morning is another step another form of support in the economy in europe And this was that brussels is set to unveil a series of quick fixes to the financial market rules Including measures to ease trading and small cap stocks energy derivatives in just another format of trying to Release liquidity and help then the economic recovery in the eurozone The planned measures due to be announced in the coming days include changes to the european wide method to regulatory regime Tweaks to standards for company prospectuses and exemptions to formal regulatory burdens Where they are not strictly necessary according to draft paper seen by the ft So again, it's kind of like remember what i was talking about yesterday This mammoth response from both the fiscal now independent national government a coordinated european wide recovery fund the ecb In their pep as well as their app program as well as their tiltro's free assistance You know there's just so much going on here And reasons then to support then fundamentally why this euro has continued to outperform at this point in time And this is just another another element to add to that basket of kind of goods All right. Well quick look at some other stories then Some things there for me to get you up to speed on and we've talked about the commodity markets talked about the charts It's all about earnings We did have tesla last night and This is the headline gross is musk's goal after profit position stock for the s&p So remember what we're talking about is yesterday A positive quarterly earnings from tesla now marking the fourth in the row is one of the components then would mean It could pave the way for its ultimate inclusion into the s&p 500 index given the size of the company It's not just purely down to Having four consecutive profitable quarters. There are some other metrics that need to be taken to consideration But it almost does fill now inevitable with a company of the magnitude of tesla to be included in the s&p index Which of course then opens the doors for lots of other things in terms of the inclusion into different Indices or ETFs that would require then potential pickups to a new investor base In terms of the numbers profit was at 50 cents a share on a gap basis Analysts were actually anticipating a share loss of a dollar and six cents so big out performance revenues from a year ago To 6.04 billion that was above the expectations of 5.4 billion The company also announced that they would build another new vehicle assembly plant in texas to keep lowering the costs of its models And interestingly elon musk saying on the kind of analysts call afterwards about this idea And this is obviously highly unusual Approach that he's not really interested in making tesla highly profitable company He just wants to make then these cars. He's still disappointed about the revenue growth figures, which have generally quite plateaued And he wants to accelerate that so he actually wants to lower the cost of the models in which they're producing Producible vehicles make it more accessible from a price point of view And not necessarily making more profit, but just generating more growth for the company is his tactic That he's trying to follow aftermarket the market did like this Tesla shares were up about 4 percent in extended hours. You can see momentarily breaking 1700 bucks Failing to sustain that but sitting just above 16 50 now for tesla Which was about a 4 percent Incline in aftermarket trade on the flip side microsoft was the other big company, of course people were looking at And all focus was on the cloud computing division and almost You know kind of victim to its own success. I mean the clouds As a revenue in microsoft has just been phenomenal In recent quarters, you know really starting to worry the likes of amazon who really dominated that space for so long with aws And so as I said that their reserve revenues rose 47 percent in the quarter So phenomenal number But that was actually below market expectations of 49 percent And it was lower than what they had in the prior quarter of 59 percent So again, this is the problem It's kind of like those netflix numbers with the new subscriber rates If you if you post 10 million in one quarter the market gets hungry for these types of numbers to be repeated But it's almost kind of doomed to fail to keep up that massive outperformance every single time Sales though for microsoft were up 13 percent 38 billion above the expected 36.5 billion The results showed Subscriptions and cloud programs like office and azure continue to grow along with remote working But just basically the bottom line here was just short of what markets kind of lofty expectations were So in terms of aftermarket trade, I wouldn't say there's anything to panic about with microsoft shares um It's just a Relative small comparative to the year to date performance in this stock There they were down about two and a quarter percent in aftermarket trade Trading at 207 Some interesting graphics actually on this equity focus front This was a a chart that I saw on the ft this morning And it was talking about the small cluster of companies that dominate the s and p 500 So we've known this for a while, but I just thought they were quite Visually a nice graphic to to put into some comparison This chart basically is looking at the weighting of the top five stocks within the s and p 500 as a proportion of the index And one thing obviously that this this type of environment tends to cultivate is a lot of chatter about Well, you know, is this a healthy rally that we're we're seeing at the moment because microsoft apple amazon alphabet and facebook now account for roughly about 23 percent So five companies account for almost a quarter of the entire index comparatively just before the dot.com bubble Microsoft and sisco were the tech industry giants back then and at that point We're only looking around 17 compared to today's 23 percent So the five mega caps way more influential now than they were then if we look at the actual market performance of the year as a whole um, this is looking at the Individual five companies which are the colored lines at the top and the kind of maroon color at the bottom is the actual benchmark s and p 500 So the way that this index is measured So looking at this then the s and p basically having had this recovery we've had of late is flat at this point for a year today Actually now it's slightly positive Very very minor But amazon obviously has been a massive outperformer and a lot of this, you know, obviously due to covid 19 Helping accelerate that e-commerce kind of revolution quicker It's kind of forced that that story that's been to the benefit of those types of companies So two things here one what a lot of people look at here Is well when a market is so susceptible to such a small cluster of companies And given the fact that they're tech oriented and they're becoming more of almost monopoly Then a tougher regulatory environment could be an existential threat to the tech groups It's what a lot of people are saying in this ft article this morning However, I thought actually the best summary that I've read to encapsulate this idea About the composition of the index and how it's forming at the moment is the result is That there's no better business model than the mega cap tech And the reason for that is cloud computing Media streaming and a delivery of consumer goods that are tailor-made models for the covid 19 life And I couldn't agree more. I think that was a really good statement that really encapsulates You know a lot of the under underpinning the reason why they've been so stellar so far There's lots of other reasons as well, of course So that's pretty much it from me really Looking at the Canada for today It is super quiet We know this we've known this from Monday Friday is really the focal point for economic data because that's when we get the global flash PMIs tomorrow Throughout the day so including new k europe and the u.s Today you do have the initial jobless claims coming out and it's expected to remain pretty much static and around this 1.3 million level I would not anticipate that to be a market moving event I think people are acclimatized now to the situation that is happening with those Jobless claims. Otherwise european morning is kind of defunct of any real Data and other than that jobless claims. There really is not other a great deal going on Speaker wise, he got ECBs to Gwendoz speaking at 10 a.m. London time Bank of England's Haskell tends to be leaning on the dovish side Is speaking from lockdown to recovery economic effects of COVID-19? This could be quite interesting get a bit of an insight obviously market pricing has been Back to ring in potential negative rates in the uk coming into the spring of next year So Haskell being of a dovish disposition to be interested to see what he has to say speaking at 12 o'clock in london time um earnings wise We have A couple of names to look out for pre-market Twitter AT&T get a number of the the major us airliners american airlines group southwest airlines reporting today In an aftermarket one of the larger cap names will be intel which might capture some headline attention But overall terms of this morning again fairly Fairly bullish out of the gate in terms of the equity performance Largely brushing aside some of this renewed tension on the us china front on this consulate situation in houston In in the us which broke yesterday For the time being gold is a quite a key technical resistance point from the overnight session So keep an eye there has remained pretty bullish And if you think about it Again for all those reasons discussed yesterday Whatever the case might happen where the positive or negative a lot of this is kind of Helping these precious metals for the time being so still remain quite bullish there despite the the strong moves we've already seen um and then S&P is already targeting now It's our one and and if we continue this current price pattern Then keeping on the euro on yesterday's high For continuation of that move beyond that key technical 116 and then oil we would um We would we foresee would continue to follow the general trend higher with the the equity market all things remaining equal All right, that is it Just remember again reminder to subscribe to the youtube channel if you haven't already done so I spoke to melan from our tech team He has put together a fresh video with five key points of how to formulate an algorithmic System and it's really interesting and it's going to be really cool video He's going to release that on saturday So remember to subscribe to the channel and you're better watch that this weekend. All right guys I'll speak to you tomorrow. Have a good and profitable day in the market. Take care