 Okay, very good morning Monday 24th of May. Hope you had a fantastic weekend and welcome to the briefing for the look ahead for this week And before I begin just remember to check out amplify live comm especially if you're watching this on our YouTube channel Don't forget to hit that like and subscribe button But on amplify live check it out because you know the thing that's really cool Now about what we've tried to design is all of the trade a hub content that we have There is now in fact a free option where you can just join our community in a private discord room get access to some of the content And then some other stuff you can check out if you so wanted to from there forward but look, let's get straight into it and talk about what's going on this morning and Relatively quiet and not a great deal of weekend major news flow for me to speak of Most of that was drawn towards what looked like a potential another sell-off in Bitcoin However, that in itself has stabilized now and in the futures. We're trading around 35 and a half thousand there but as far as sentiment is for multi-asset this morning relatively Neutral the equity index futures are slightly positive. That's up 41 Nasdaq 26 the S&P 12 golds trading up again about seven bucks FX markets very quiet basically flat the US 10 year up marginally around three and a half ticks and crude oil staging a bit of a an uptick and recovery Trading back to sixty four dollars after that sell-off that was seen in the second half of last week What I'm trying to do in this briefing then is I'm going to try and pick out some of the news for you to be aware of And then we'll look at the corresponding chart a little bit bigger from a technical perspective on the screen and Talk through some levels for the week ahead. So first things first. Let's talk about Bitcoin. So Volatility puts weekend traders on stomach churning ride. I think this is a little bit Sensationalized by Bloomberg, but nonetheless, we did see the largest digital token slump as much as 13 percent on Sunday And as per usual no real reason for the sell-off Well, I say that jokingly They obviously were a few catalysts that created the slump last week But nothing really to pin it on over the weekend. Just still a little bit of apprehension I guess about whether or not this route currently in Bitcoin is done yet or not We have looked at this peers and I talked about this in the the market watch podcast on Friday About the kind of historic way of which Bitcoin tends to go through these phases of high periods of volatility typically defined by large Sell-offs and then consolidation periods And just having a look at a few things then here where we where we stand at the moment So this was that Sunday sell-off that we had in a bit of Perspective, I guess in terms of some of the recent price action that we've had So it definitely has grinded lower from where we were trading which was basically up at around a 41,000 nearly 42,000 level to where we are at the moment on the daily chart then a couple of things we're still monitoring really Going forward and I'm just gonna pinch this chart a little bit Down here was the the bottom of the sell-off that we had on the 19th Of course, which was seen at around 30,000 level. That's still a big one to keep an eye on You know if we go all the way back to October 2020 on this rising trend line pretty much coincides with the 200 DMA and Then also that kind of psychological 30,000 level so I still key to watch on the downside Again downside beyond that point any breakdown of price 27,000 that double bottom that we had back in the beginning Jan late Jan of 2021 below there then looking right the way down to 22 and a half kind of thousand which was The pre-Christmas kind of high before we broke out a little bit higher post Christmas trade And then Then just further down if we were to get there I'm kind of more around 20,000 so Yeah, there'll be the key levels to watch on the downside. I'm talking the downside more But just talking the other side any further recovery here really I think you've got to get back above 40,000 to really see More of an ongoing recovery that will remain fairly significant obstacle in the upside now technically over the next Week price action, but overall does feel like there's still a little bit of volatility in it and the crypto space at the moment Just given the type of movement that we saw on Sunday So I think it is something that people will be looking at quite closely This week bit of talk over the weekend about the impact this could or might is having on other asset classes I don't really see that myself I think you'd need to see Even if you saw something really spectacular like Bitcoin this week drops to 20,000 so basically halves again in value I don't necessarily think that that will be anything more than perhaps a Fleeting moment of a few hours where it might impact other assets. I really don't think it's that bigger deal as far as the other Markets of concern to be to be quite honest But moving on let's have a look at another thing So the other product of course that comes in step with this that a lot of people look at it's gold And gold holds near four month high and it bullish investor sentiment and basically what they're saying here is that That data that we get on a weekly basis talking about hedge fund positioning So hedge fund managers have increased their net loan position in to the highest in 16 weeks in gold according to data That came out at the end of last week Boolean backed exchange trader funds have seen inflows in May Following three straight months of sales So it's flipped for the first time in a few months there to being more tilted to the buy side Just having a good gold this morning. I mean, it's it's pretty much within a near-term range that has been trading here Which has really been defined by Just flip over to my charts 1870 and a half on the low and then roughly around 1890-91 on the high I was just having a look at this this area here price getting a little bit squeezed So just seeing a bit of a rundown after that pickup that we've had with pivot providing a bit of support For the move higher in the Asia pack session So I don't there's nothing too much behind this latest little dip other than just a bit of a break out of that price action We've had all late So near-term if we're looking at gold in the intro day Probably the pivot would be an area to see how it responds it around that at that point in time however down at BS1 with that double bottom from Really last week on Friday would be an area to keep an eye on on a daily chart Yeah, really nice moves we've seen of late and certainly going back to the last three weeks or so You can see the bullish sentiment really coming to fruition here after we've seen quite a big break out back at the beginning of May And it's just continued its way up next target upside and certainly could come into play this week would be more psychological and technical I'd say is 1900 and then 1918 would start to bring in those highs that were seen back at towards the beginning of the year the bigger than overall target would be recovery backs up to 1966 which then brings in those areas between the high on the 9th of November and actually Yeah, 9th of November this would have been around when some of that Pfizer news was actually coming out at that time This was actually the response to the Pfizer first vaccine coming or looking like it was being successful and approved to come to market And that was the consequence slut off that we saw on goal on the back of the first kind of meaningful development on the vaccination side So that's where we'd put us back up to and that was we tested up at around the beginning of the year in January, so Yeah, it would be I guess To continue that move in this week. It is possible I'd say it's a bit of a big ass to get up there perhaps this week Given the size and scope of the run that we've had to see that type of really consistent green price action all the way up Would be I'd say unusual without at least a period of consolidation At some point and whether we'll see that here at around 1900 just capping a little bit for the upside until the next meaningful kind of move comes or Development in in a news perspective So pretty bullish still for for good for gold overall Then let's talk about oil. So oil reclaiming the $64 hammer in front of the futures Couple of things to update you on from an Iranian Perspective as one of the main things people are looking at and attributing some of the sell-off that we had last week, too So talks between Iran and world powers are going to continue in Vienna this week as both sides tried to resolve It's just some remaining differences in order to get back to that nuclear pact Iran's Parliament did say on Sunday though that a three-month monitoring deal between Tehran and the UN nuclear watchdog has Expired and the access to images from inside some of their sites would cease On the back of that a secretary of state Blinken the US responded and said there was no sign yet that Iran is willing to comply With its nuclear commitments needed to lift Sanctions and as such then we have seen a little bit of a pull off those Lows that were seen around 61 65 67 in futures again the second half of Really long most of last week really was Considerable downside pressure and we've retraced just coming up to approximate 50% of that move At the current price and we just reclaims and said to $64 handle So One of the things here timing-wise with with oil and with this focus on Iran and so on As well as OPEC a meeting of the OPEC plus joint technical committee, which was to have taken place Tomorrow to assess the state of global supply and demand has been moved to the end of the month on the 31st According to a person for the matter and then OPEC's kind of alliance planned next Ministerial meeting is going to take place then as it always does the day after on the first of June sort of scheduled Yeah, but at the moment As you know further developments on the vaccine. There's quite a few vaccine type news coming out at the weekend talking about the effectiveness of the double dosage against the Indian variant things of that nature Covid case rates continue to to decrease in the US Granted of outside of a few hotspot areas and so therefore Demand I think is still in my point of view I think going to be picking up enough to counteract any type of Iranian crude coming back on the market If these sanctions are to be lifted and a new deal is to be struck between world powers in Iran Irrespective of that, you know deal is not done until The bottom line has been signed and there's still some way to go there So at the moment a bit of a balance in oil being being observed a few other headlines to have a look at So just quickly on the news perspective The White House said on Friday. They're pet. They're going to pair down its infrastructure bill to 1.7 trillion From two and a quarter trillion with cuts to investments in broadband and roads and bridges But republicans dismissed the changes as insufficient for a deal How important is this? Again, it feels like it should be important because the fact the market was definitely looking To stimulus to kind of guide the ship as whether or not Equities continue to move on up at the moment. I don't see any deal Coming imminently. I think they're too far apart at this point in time And the fact that the markets are not selling off I think tells you the fact that they're not assigning Too much then priority to that being a necessity to get done in order to keep Let's say sentiment stable or equities at these current levels. So Something to monitor. I think rather than get too spooked by And as I said, I don't think that they're going to make any particular progress this week If we're looking at it in the short term The other thing then UK England's lockdown Senior UK ministers said they're increasingly confident that the june 21st easing of all lockdown restrictions in England will go ahead As planned as research suggested that COVID-19 vaccines were effective against a new strain i.e. the Indian Variance, let's have a look at the currency markets and have a look at cable so cable near term This is looking at the last Two and a bit weeks of price action Got a nice trend line going back to the 13th, which was supported on the 20th and also In the overnight Asia pack session so anyone any Night owls if you like would have been a nice long opportunity there The market responding well to that that trend line and just coming up to them What would have been a nice logical target? Which was the peak of the price action that was seen going back to Friday night's action in the futures market? so 41 56 we traded at the moment any further move beyond this point today Or continuation of this trend Really looking at the higher bound levels at 142 and beyond to to become more interesting on the daily chart for the week Obviously last week we kind of had to run up As we were kind of anticipating at the beginning of that week. We were looking at you know major data The further reopening of the economy And so as such we did run up, but we've saw some profit taking at around those year to date highs So that's still a key level 142 45 to have a look at on the upside as we go through the week If we break the trend line and we start to see some downside pressure Then again, I'd look down at 141 handle I think that's a nice level because it encapsulates that area of price support that we've seen through Period of kind of mid to second half of last week and then lower down you got the s2 the 140 77 80 area which also starts to encapsulate some of the price action here as well So some nice support points if we get the break or targets subsequently for a short if that was too materialized But at the moment Looks to be fairly supported at the present point in time As far as the euro is concerned I guess on the daily chart Last week we saw a test up at around that high that we printed back on the 25th of feb I still think that's the really the key level to watch at this point in time And so once again looking at monitoring and tracking the dollar performance We did see a bit of a move up, of course on friday But general direction has been lower because if that trend Continues of dollar weakness Then we'd be keeping an eye on those upside levels both respectively in cable and uro dollars We've just discussed on the slightly higher time frames Elsewhere a quick run through the other Charts, but just before I conclude on the euro There were some comments that had a vice president to gwindos at the weekend Who gave the latest kind of insight I guess in in toward the ecb's thinking He said that recent data has been much more positive and that ecb monetary policy decision in june will be based on data But also noted that policy must remain accommodative. So again, it's kind of Reiterating the stance but being a little bit more upbeat. I guess on current economic conditions Final charts to have a look at I guess our equity and then we can have a run through the calendar main things to have a look out for This was just a look at t-notes and I wanted to have a look at t-notes because What we have seen is it's kind of the market Market participants are in a kind of in a hawkish mindset to a degree of They definitely attribute more risk to say inflation Than what we've seen to adhering to Fed guidance in the respect that the Fed are kind of holding the line and remaining cognitive and every time we get a kind of a hawkish Surprise or a hawkish element development as we did with the cpi yields pop you'll So the prices of t-notes drops and then we recover fmc hawkish surprise drops We recover So for me, there's a pretty consistent theme here an actuality. I think you the the tenure if you Take out the volatility in this trading range that we are kind of looking at here It's pretty quiet comparative to other markets And as long as we don't really see a change in nominal the yields, then I don't really think That really this is too much of a thing to get too obsessed by This whole idea about inflation being a real consideration or or headache for the market to digest I think that that has passed to a certain degree But just looking here and some of the upside on the intro day are one with this trend line over the last two weeks I'd be keeping an eye on And so at this present point in time probably looking at the s1 here and That prior low that was seen on friday So this area and the trend line to dictate the upper and lower bound of what could be just the trading range For the rest of the session today because the calendar is particularly quiet And then for the equity side of things going to look at both the s&p and the nasdaq really more on the daily And the reason for that is just to keep an eye on a few longer term levels I mean whether nasdaq trades at the moment Doesn't look particularly appealing on on this time frame But the point being is that there's still a very important trend line that's in play At the moment and that goes back to the summer of last year We've had that more firm retest back in march and then more recently here just in the last two weeks So price is still quite a way off that at the moment But that's still obviously within the weak context would be really important to watch And as long as we remain above here, I still think the market remains kind of supported on any dips And then likewise for the s&p. It's a pretty similar kind of picture in that respect So if we just look on here Again, the market responded very nicely on a trend line. This one's slightly Not as Dated in the kind of length of the trend line, but this goes back to kind of late october Of 2020 the retest again around that march dip that we saw in in us equities And and the markets responded quite nicely thereafter. So if the s&p here, I think Upside we're trading at 41 64 at the moment. We had a failed attempt to try and break that top end Which is zoom in here this area here We failed to break above that on on friday albeit a brief test and so upside that will be quite key If we did start to see that move transpire then you might see a break Move up to 4200 pullback and then people will be looking to target the balls back up to the the all-time high levels again Okay Let's have a quick look at the calendar then. Uh, what's For today today is really quiet. There's actually nothing going on from an economic data point of view of interest In fact, and so speaker wise there's a few to be aware of And brainard speaks at a crypto conference. So what's this crypto conference? Consensus by coin desk is what this crypto conference is called now I wouldn't normally be talking about the crypto conference But the reason why I am is because there's some pretty interesting speakers Feds brainard is one of the more senior members of the fmc You've got lauren summers ray dalio and kathy wood are all going to be giving keynote speeches Um, I will share the full kind of agenda day by day as we go through But as you can see then We do have feds brainard speaking at that event a bit later on this afternoon at 2 p.m bank of england governor bailey Cunliffe saunders they appeared for the treasury select committee talking about monetary policy This is normally a bit of a non-event. It's more about them just reporting back to the treasury of their Decisions and their their policy as it stands at the moment unlikely to yield anything new or surprising But so you're aware it's a 330 feds mester bostic and george will speaking today bostic a voter right now Speaking on the public response to the covet pandemic at 5 p.m Otherwise, let's just have a quick look at the week Um, so just moving over to Tuesday. You do get the german iphone business climate indicator And it's expected to hit its highest level since may of 2019 while the gfk Survey out of germany on thursday. So in terms of your two german releases It's forecast to reach a seven month high according to economists polled by reuters So look at the good data in that respect on a confidence perspective and that comes as See covet cases become more under control and we go through this period of Trying to reopen in the german economy and an optimism lifting on the back of that So looking out for some stronger numbers there. So again If you're thinking about a euro on those higher time frame charts Do we see the dollar revert back to that weakening trend? Amid as well some more optimistic signs emerging from some of these key European countries like Germany and their data and that could help that then retest up at that level In the euro, which will be quite key Um, if we go further then we do have on wednesday Excuse me thursday, I should say you get the us gdp figure Could potentially be revised higher on the back of stronger consumer spending after upper revisions for march So those figures will be coming out on thursday and then on friday I guess a little bit more busy you get a eu economic sentiment data like to confirm continued optimism among businesses And consumers as reopening is getting underway and vaccination rollout programs continue to pick up speed you do also get the Personal income levels the april core pc price index in the u.s. And chicago pmi the michigan number is the final reading which we'll get on friday Final thing to be aware of haven't heard of any specific date or more information as yet But there was some talk last week that top trade officials in the u.s. And china Are poised to hold their first meeting to review the phase one of the trade agreement that was signed under president trump the meeting Could occur at the end of the month with a potential in person meeting of the two heads of state biden and she in the summer So just keeping an eye out for any more specifics on that subject. All right, that is it. So hopefully that's a Thorough enough rundown to get you up to speed Again, check out amplify live.com for the guys already in the community I'll start updating the technical analysis section as well with annotated charts so Good luck for today and enjoy the rest of the week. Take care