 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We've got a couple of massive games coming up in the women's college basketball tournament LSU versus Virginia Tech and the big headliner here I will versus South Carolina We're gonna break down both those games in the final four with Justin Carter for today Getting his read on the final four on the women's side of things and getting you ready for it should be an electric Slated games on Friday. This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network And number fire calm. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Justin Carter. You can find him on Twitter at just cards You can find him on her hoop stats roto baller 16,000 other places seems like Justin you are all over the place. Welcome to the show. How you doing today? I'm good. Thanks for having me on here excited to talk about some women's hoops me too I'm excited. It's gonna be a blast these games so far this tournament has been good You know brackets been okay for me. So I'm still Sweatting things out. I know I can't make up a lot of ground given everyone has South Carolina and I do too But you know, I feel pretty good about things a lot better than my men's bracket for sure If you're looking for our men's breakdown in the final four that podcast is up We talked to Dr. Ed Feng earlier on this week getting his read on the final four futures stuff like that If you're listening before opening day for baseball as well that podcast went up yesterday So can find those on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the family YouTube page now later on the show I'll be talking about a formula one in Australia and Justin. I feel like I I flubbed the timing here I should have done NASCAR today Instead of tomorrow because you do NASCAR work as well So I feel like I I should have flip-flopped those to get your NASCAR thoughts for cup series and Xinnity and Richmond and the Trucks down to Texas your neck of the woods your old neck of the woods. Yeah, I mean I Haven't really dug into this week in NASCAR yet. So I'm glad but there's nothing strong. I'm here something right. Yeah I'm excited tomorrow to dig into all the NASCAR stuff for the weekend, too Yeah, awesome week for you big week for you between all the NASCAR stuff going on and the women's final four now Justin we're gonna talk about those specific gains here in a second break down what you see in them based on the odds over at Fandals sports book before we do so Because this is our first time having you here on the show I did want to dig in a bit to your process how things work for you What steps do you go through to research when you're trying to formulate your thoughts on a women's college basketball game? Yeah, so my women's college basketball kind of betting process isn't really as kind of Complex or well-defined as it is for other sports just because There's a lot of early line movement on women's college basketball games So it's a lot more kind of gut-check Yeah, her hoop stats. We have a kind of matchup predictor tool that kind of gives us What the spreads kind of should be based on all of our data and so I you know in other sports I look at multiple different kind of Data sources right just because it's so much faster here if you want to get you know On the bets before the lines just right Go wild. It's just a lot of kind of looking at our projection seeing you know where You know our numbers are saying the lines are off and Mostly kind of betting those yeah, and I think that the The tough part there is like you mentioned numbers moving very fast Which means you have less time to aggregate all those sources not all data sources update as quickly as we'd like always Which complicates things too. So if you want to use like a Wisdom of the crowd step approach or something we talk about a lot here on the show It's tougher to do so if you're getting extreme Movement right away, which it sounds like is what you're seeing here So I think it makes sense to kind of whittle things down just kind of out of necessity if you want to not bet into A mature market and stuff like that. I think you kind of have to go that way now You mentioned her hoop stats, of course, you do write for them and it sounds like they're probably the premier place to go for data When trying to bet on women's college basketball I'm guessing a lot of people listening to the show here have gotten hooked a bit from this tournament with how fun it's been and You know only three games left for this year But looking forward to next year if people want to do their own research try to formulate their own models or just You know it'd be better informed in betting at the women's side of things Which sites would you highlight as being good ones for data they can turn to? Yeah, so I mean if you're looking for something that's just kind of easy and free and sports references launch women's college basketball stuff over the last few months, I haven't Dumbed too much into that yet because a lot of that stuff available on her hoop stats also I Know what her hoop stats be kind of add a little more to that by showing, you know, how teams rank and Yeah, all you know hearing everything and all that And we have some matchup tools that you know, you can put the two teams in there and see predictions for you know home neutral in a way predictions for them and Totals and all that that I don't think you'd probably get a sports reference and Then there's also if you're looking for something a little on the pricier in there's a psychotic CDB analytics that Has all kinds of like shot data and defensive data. And so if you really wanted to dig in and You know Look at the nitty-gritty of like how You know, how is this team at post defense first? What's this team other teams, you know? offensive skills, you know, there's that Although that I think That's cool, I think better for kind of non betting analysis usually is for betting analysis, but it's a good place to kind of get More data more data is what you want, right? And if you're writing for a site called hoop stats, obviously, you're leaning on data a lot You know data is a big part for you But you also watch a lot of games How much for you is weighing what the data says versus what you see with your eyes given how much you're consuming on a day-to-day basis Yeah, I mean I think For me I will I'll look at the data and then I'll you know kind of think like okay, I've seen this in this play Is what I'm seeing in this data what I should be seeing in this right? You know, I think last night for example I think the spread on the women's IT game was like eight and a half our Data said it was like eight point two But I had watched campus in Washington enough to know that like Washington's offense is really not good and You know, they weren't going it was gonna be a blowout and it was So basically what you're doing is using the numbers as a baseline and then And then taking your eye test from there to decide do I agree with this or do I not? So like the numbers of the baseline and then you go from there. Is that kind of the interpretation? Yeah, yeah, I think that's how we all should do it, you know We all have at least again. It's a we're pretty data driven podcast here. A lot of people have their own numbers They're on thoughts. That's the baseline. It's never gospel. It's never No model is perfect. So I think that having that that element in there of watching the games is important, too Okay, let's talk about some games here and break down the first game on a Friday night Just we got LSU taking on Virginia Tech right now LSU a one and a half point favorite total here is one thirty three and a half and Projects me a very tight game. So what do you see in this game in terms of the spread the money line any lean for you there, Justin? Yeah, so it coming into the term. I really didn't believe in LSU They only lost twice all year. They had you know that so that sounds good But then they played one of the weakest non-conference Skittles with the country But I've really changed my mind over the last few weeks about them. I mean they blew out Michigan by 24 They held you talk to about 20 points under it under the scoring average And our her hoop steps model has been this 5.4 point favorites in this one so for me, I think You know that one and a half point spread on there. I'm I'm taking the LSU side of that Have they done enough to sway you where you think the four and a half is correct there? Yeah, you know, I think I'm concerned about them against Teens as good offensively as South Carolina and Iowa. Yeah, the Virginia Tech's not Quite at that level They rank outside the top 20 in offensive rating. And so, you know, this to me feels like a game where LSU is kind of clearly the better team even though they're a three seed versus a one seed Yes, let's spread is again one and a half So Justin does like LSU there minus 115 on the one and a half on LSU You know, you talked about LSU's defense. You talked about Virginia Tech's offense not being super super stellar Total in this game is 133 and a half. What's your read on that market? This is one that I've really been back and forth on and I think I'm probably mostly just gonna stay away from that one just because I think The problem is Virginia Tech plays at such a slow pace Sure, they're 251st in pace that if LSU's defense is just like a little better than expected I mean, this could get really ugly, right and it could really easily kind of go under but LSU's also I Don't know. I mean, I again I said I trusted LSU now. Mm-hmm. There's still a part of me that wonders if like Virginia Tech might be able to score on them I so I don't know. This is one that's kind of messy for me in terms of the total because I think it could go Either way, yeah, I think it's the most freeing feeling in the world realizing I don't have to bet this You know when I am conflicted like that to me It is liberating to be like I'll pass and just I'll ride with my LSU minus one and a half ticket there So it sounds like LSU minus one and a half the one bet we're liking in that first Friday game Second Friday game is the headliner here We got South Carolina taking on Iowa South Carolina an 11 and a half point favorite total in this game is 149 and a half and despite the fact that South Carolina is a big favorite here Justin We've heard a lot about Caitlyn Clark She has shot out of her mind in this tournament now We know that he's she's very good But the question that I have for you is someone who's watched her watch this Iowa team all year and watch South Carolina's defense is Is this run from Caitlyn Clark sustainable? And what's your view on the 11 and a half point spread? considering that analysis Yeah, I mean, I think what Clark herself was doing sustainable. We have a pretty long sample of her just Doing crazy things with the basketball Over and over and over again My concern is if like the rest of Iowa's team can kind of be there for her. I mean, I think Clark can score 30 and Iowa can be blown out still just because the the SE defense is just so good and Also The Iowa defense isn't that good. There are 190th and defensive rating. So like This could get ugly. So I I like betting South Carolina even though 11 and a half is pretty big for a final four just because They have so much more size. They're such a better defensive team They can let Caitlyn Clark do her thing Shut the rest of the four players in the court down and you know Crews I guess it's a really interesting dynamic there where you buy into what she's done But still think that the 11 and a half is an appropriate number potentially one you're willing to lay there as well I think that it's important. Remember there are four other players on the court And that's not to downplay what they've done. Obviously they played very well throughout this tournament But 11 and a half is there for a reason with South Carolina. I think that's pretty interesting Now you mentioned the offense for Iowa offense for South Carolina the defense for Iowa Total in this game does reflect that one 49 and a half. Is that still too low? What's your read on that total for this game? I Actually, I think that total's too high on it. Okay, I think the South Carolina defense now They allow 51 point one points per game. I know I was offence as good. I know Caitlyn Clark's the best offensive player in the country, but You know I South Korea's defense I just struggled to see this being a high scoring game because of how good they are defensively and that's a big Number one 49 and a half the under there is minus one oh five Is it a big enough number where you're willing to take the under there or is that more of a lean on your end? Oh, I mean, I'll probably put a little on the under in this one. I'm not you know, I mean the Caitlyn Clark on the court It's not something I'm super confident in but you know, it's something about like Just based on having watched the South Carolina defense all year and seeing what they've done and how they've held almost every opponent under their scoring average You know, I think I definitely lean this being lower scoring Okay And then with the 11 and a half point spread there Was that one where you feel like you feel good enough about it to lock that one in with South Carolina at 11 and a half Yeah, I mean, I think so. I mean, I know our group that's model has 13.1. So perfect a little yeah, I Mean I I would could up could shock us here, but I'm I'm more confident in South Carolina Winning this one comfortably. I think that makes a lot of sense. Okay, so Justin liking both LSU minus one and a half South Carolina minus 11 and a half and potentially checking out the under on the South Carolina Iowa game Now you think that South Carolina should roll in this game, which turns us towards the futures market They are minus 290 to win the national championship the second short of saw it's LSU at six to one It sounds like based on what you were saying LSU could struggle pretty heavily against a team like South Carolina Given the offense that they have Do you think that there is still value in South Carolina at minus 290 anything else in this market? Or does it appear pretty efficient overall to you? I mean, I think South Carolina minus 290 is a I mean it's it's a boring bet, but it's It's I mean, they're the overwhelming favorite for a reason, right? They already beat LSU in the regular season by 20 or so. I think too. I can't remember the exact score So in a matchup like that, they'd be the clear favorites I think the one thing that intrigues me though about These odds is I know I just talked about Iowa probably losing but at plus 850 if they beat South Carolina, they're the obvious favorite international title game, right and so I think That's an interesting risk to me right now is to bet Iowa at that amount. Okay, just because you know, obviously the odds are gonna Change drastically if Iowa does get past South Carolina. So I think there's some there's some risk a lot of risk there, but it could be Something that pays off right now the Iowa money line for the South Carolina game specifically is plus 540 So I think that the way you could play this is Take the championship out right instead if you like Iowa and think they can keep this game close Take the plus 850 versus taking the money line at plus 540 for the South Carolina game and taking that additional Upside there, especially if like you said Justin, you would favor Iowa versus both LSU and Virginia Tech And I think that the other the other incentive here is that when you have a team that does shoot a lot of threes That can be pretty volatile in but volatility is not a bad thing Volatility if it includes a path to upside can be a big positive. So I think the plus 850 in Iowa is pretty intriguing You do think that I will be the pretty big favorite over LSU Virginia Tech if they were to win this game I mean, I'm not sure in terms of like what the betting markets will say you would that but I would call them the favorite Yeah, I mean, okay, LSU has struggled when they faced You know the the one elite offense they faced which was South Carolina. They Were just kind of blown out of the building. So I think Iowa should Have an advantage against them and then already is Virginia Tech. I don't know I don't want to insult Virginia Tech, but I just think They don't do as many things as an elite level as the other three teams do. Yeah Alrighty, well, this should be a fun night of sports Friday kicking off Friday with both those games LSU Virginia Tech And Iowa versus South Carolina Justin It has been a pleasure to have you on the show here for today a delight to pick your brain looking forward to Checking out her hoop stats to dig into that again find a Justin's work You can find him on Twitter at just carts J. U. S. C. A. R. T. S. Check him out at her hoop stats and roto baller as well For the NASCAR content Justin pleasure to talk to you today Have fun watching those games on Friday and have fun at the national championship, too And hopefully we can get you again on here at some point to talk some more college basketball talks NASCAR and just pick your brain again Thank you, Justin. Appreciate it. Yeah, thanks for having me. Alrighty again Find Justin on Twitter at just carts to check out all of his fantastic work across women's college basketball And NASCAR should be a fun one on Friday as mentioned we're gonna talk about some formula one in Australia here in just one second But first whether your bracket is busted and still alive or you're just looking for another way to get involved in March Madness Fan duel has you covered. That's why a fan duel and Xfinity mobile are partnered to give you a chance to win a share of $10,000 or both the men's final four and the national championship game So $20,000 in total cash pricing All you have to do is answer proper pick them questions around in-game action inclusive of Xfinity mobile themed questions and the best part is it is free to play Fans that answer the most questions correctly would a share of the $10,000 grand prize for that rounds contest The second round of this contest locks on Saturday at 6 30 So I defand will now to get in the action to enter go to fandal comm slash free slash Contest slash Xfinity mobile pick em roll Xfin or fandal comm Slash free slash contest slash Xfinity mobile pick em roll no purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply Void or prohibited see full terms at fandal comm Xfinity mobile is not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way Let's finish up here by talking about some formula one in Australia. That is the third race of the year again We'll talk about NASCAR tomorrow breaking down the The cup series of Richmond Xfinity series of Richmond and the truck series at Texas as well But looking at the markets for Australia this week There is one driver my model thinks is undervalued in the market of fandal and that guy is Lance stroll stroll of course drives for Aston Martin and that's Martin has been the big headliner so far this year because they came out got a couple of podiums right away and Turned some heads. They've I think been faster than Ferrari and Mercedes so far So when you look at these markets, you will see that strolls teammate Fernando Alonso Justifiably very high up there in the markets. He has the third highest win odds He has the second highest time for the second highest top six odds He has the third highest podium odds the market loves Alonso and that's fair. He's a very good driver I think the market should be higher on stroll stroll has longer podium top six and points odds Then not just Alonso, but also then the Ferrari and Mercedes drivers that part I think is false. It should not be the case in Bahrain stroll had a better median lap time than both the Mercedes cars and Carlos signs and he's actually not super fine behind Charles little clerk there He did that while driving with a broken wrist from a biking accident So very impressive run there for stroll and then when they went to Saudi Arabia, he retired early But he had the speed there. I think he was running fourth at the time Well, he's running for it before he painted so he had speed there got a good start and was driving well Right now look at the markets over at Fandall sportsbook stroll plus 500 a podium He is minus 195 to finish in the top six and minus 300 to finish inside the points I show value in all those I had stroll 83% to finish inside the top 10 applied odds There are 75% his top six odds for me are 70% versus 66% implied podium odds bit thinner at five to one He'd need a bit of chaos to get in front there because you need probably One of the Red Bulls or Alonso to have some issues because I don't think he'll beat Alonso on speed straight up so I think it that's at least a consideration just not as big of a value is what you get for the other two markets So what I'd want to do here personally is scale this bet and scale responsibly where you put the majority of your wager on the top 10 of the top six markets so that you can profit if he At least in the eyes of my model Lives up to expectations Then if you want to add in the podium bet to do so just in a smaller fashion because again five to one Pretty close to fair value based on what I'm seeing not quite as solid on that one So if you're looking to bet Australia for formula one, I would say do it via the Aston Martin specifically I think that stroll is the one guy who has been undervalued you can also bet on which team will win I do show a bit of value on The I'm asking Martin to win. They are six to one right now at Fandall Sportsbook I do show a bit of value on that. I'm not as convinced that my model might be underselling Red Bulls still a bit here So had not taken that but I did you think there is value in stroll specifically the t6 Minus 195 the t10 and minus 300 bets I think both those pretty good values if you want some action on formula one in Australia again NASCAR discussion for Richmond in Texas coming tomorrow on the show We'll talk about some MLB shorter slate tomorrow Which is why I want to filter in the NASCAR as well We'll try to get some strikeout props in there talk about some money lines across baseball to get you ready for day number two In major league baseball that is all that we have here for today though on the show I want to give a big thank you once again to Justin Carter find him on Twitter at just carts again Find his work at her hoop stats and roto baller and again the data site He mentioned was her hoop stats you want to dig in yourself for these games this year or next year if you want to Dive in to women's college basketball as well. I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis and J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. You have any more questions again men's final four podcast over on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the family youtube page Opening day MLB is there as well along with tomorrow's MLB will be up tomorrow on the covering the spread podcast feed Make sure you're subscribed and if you like what you hear leave us a five star rating We appreciate those of you who have done so already Good luck to all of you betting across major league baseball opening day We'll talk to you once again tomorrow for more baseball and some NASCAR This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network