 I'm Amis the Steve Rhodes as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour and don't forget folks Steve has an outstanding show every trading day right here one to two Eastern standard time also great newsletter a mastering probability now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter folks come over to our website at TFNN you're going to hit newsletters you're going to see it right on the right hand side you just hit subscribe you can get Steve's newsletter for one month for $149 you can get it for three months for six months rather for 695 which is a savings of $199 or 22% and you can get it for the year for 1195 which is a savings of $593 or 33% now they all come with 30 day money back guarantee folks so check it out this is a great trading market there's no doubt Steve Rhodes what's going on well Tom around lunchtime today I was at the eye doctor this morning and the you know hey you should fill up you should you should add some gas to your car light came on so it wasn't totally empty yeah you know but was you know below a quarter of a tank probably 117 bucks there you go to fill up you got a tank that's over 20 gallons I like it there you go and so the other the other crazy thing I I go back and forth to Naples pretty often these days yeah and and I know and yesterday so I had to fill up before I left or I put gas in before I left and and I paid 560 I think was the was a price and then when I got to Naples is where I really filled up and it was 70 cents a gallon cheaper yeah see it over here it's where we're where it's worth 490 right right yeah I would do it you guys have more money on your coast anyway so I David was telling me that is because you guys have got some depots over there so the transportation cost but still 70 cents a gallon it's it's heavy man it's it's gonna hit people there's no doubt about it man yeah there's no doubt that's so I thought today we take a little bit of a look at the big picture okay a smaller picture as well and so to start off with the big picture I like to start with this chart here tell people understand really about the global flow of capital capital fleeing Europe or wherever might flee and where it might go to so if we take a look at the highs of 2000 we'd be looking at the left hand side of the chart and of the upper portion we're looking at the euro US dollar I don't think I have the chance oh there we go I haven't thank you we got perfect perfect so from from on the upper left hand side yeah what we've got out here is we have the euro falling capital fleeing Europe and moving into the that was that was one of the elements that really helped our markets move higher into 2000 I know they called the dot-com bubble but it's still capital was fleeing from Europe it was coming into the US that helped to push markets higher we have that same pattern that has been going on since 2009 again the upper right hand portion of the top portion this chart the euro moving lower really started moving lower as soon as in June when the ECB moved to negative interest rates and that's actually when the US stock market really took off to the upside it was already moving higher but boy once those negative interest rates we had capital fleeing Europe moving into the US so just important for people to understand that picture out here now the same pattern like I say has been unfolding since 2009 if the euro bus through the 2016 lows now because I'm using a line chart here this is the closing price of the euro and I'm using a monthly time frame chart if you look at candlesticks you'll see the price got lower than the buck five that's shown here but on a closing basis if the euro breaks through these lows out here that is then going to send a significant amount of capital into the US so just trying to give people the bigger picture Tom yes it's really important for us to take a look at the euro and so speaking of the euro and this is a monthly time frame chart when the euro topped in 2008 so going back to our markets moving higher the euro topped in 2008 capital fled fled Europe into US stocks it was a TD 9 count pattern this is blue arrow across the top that identified that top if we take a look at coming into January of 2021 it was another TD 9 count top that had formed out there so again capital coming out of Europe into the US now we fast forward to today where I've got this blue arrow bottom portion of my screen here this month the month of March is going to become bar number eight of a TD 9 count now in the case of TD 9 counts they can top with bar number 8 much like it did back in the 2008 time frame or it could be bar number 9 the bar following 9 but this is setting up as long as the euro holds I'd say the 104 to 107 level this would suggest that there may be a bounce or a bottom and that bouncer bottom for the euro Tom should take it up in this one 14-ish level this little green red line that's what I refer to as the oscillator and change line and when it changes colors especially when there's a top or bottom being made that is typically where price will go ahead and gravitate itself to so at this stage right now I would say at the end of March it looks like the euro might be might save itself at this stage but look if it takes out those lows at a buck for out there then you know then all heck is going to break loose and we'll see money come into the US stock market so they may be on pause the euro may be on pause now if we then take a look at our US markets we take a look at the Dow the Dow has a yearly TD 9 count top remember I said when we're looking at the euro the top of a TD 9 count can happen on either bars 8 bar 9 to the bar following in this case here for the Dow it's the bar following 9 that's on a yearly base so we've got that top that's in place out here on a monthly basis this triggered a rogment to indicator signal so we've got that top from a monthly standpoint the weekly standpoint we have wave number 7 that's an element of Basil Chapman's Chapman wave out there so that's a top and again on the daily time frame now we've got a TD 9 count bottom that is formed so that's important to take a look at but when we come down below and take a look at the daily time frame chart here for the Dow equity future contract where the Dow cash does not have a TD 9 count top we do have one in place here for the Dow equity future contract so at this stage here we may be seeing a short term top that forms relatively soon when I say relatively soon well here's here's the Dow weekly chart so the the bearish side is that we get a TD 9 count and we see price pull back the bullish side is we take a look at really want to Bud Rolf's chart so to speak here we've got horizontal trading ranges those are the green horizontal lines it's a weekly chart that we're looking at for the Dow and then we've got our diagonal trend channels out here and the cool thing is Tom when you create the trend channel coming off the 2009 low to the March 20 2009 low and then you can clearly see the highs out here all I do is I just take that width of that and then it just simply increases by that exact with to get these dash lines out here so interestingly enough when you get through one area you then move on to the next area so if we take a look where the Dow topped it was topping into a horizontal trading range into a rising trend line but right now as long as the Dow holds 34152 that's the price that people should be looking at it could be signaling that the markets move higher but the daily time frame has these topping signals so it takes us back to the S&P 500 and if we look at the S&P 500 here on the daily basis today is going to become bar number nine whether it's for the cash industry or whether it's for the daily time frame that says we could see the high occur tomorrow could be today or tomorrow that hiking for a form of bars eight nine or the bar following nine this might just be a pullback retracement this would be your devious thing here because you're thinking hey the markets might move higher well we might have a short-term top as we talked about before we get those top or bottom signals price typically pulls back into that oscillator and change line so move back to 4410 would be normal it would could be the next entry point to the to the to the to a move higher out here but we do have or I do have some short-term topping signals now the real levels for folks to be watching at overnight so I'll get right to the point here if this is a top we're going to see levels get broken support levels these blue arrows show us where these are breakout levels under 30 minute time frame for the ESMini these are where the buy the dips were but if price closes below one of those that tells us we've got some type of change in character or trend in the market so the level to be watching overnight and the level to be watching tomorrow right now is 45 oh four fifty in the ESMini close blow that that'll give us a signal to the downside the ads isn't this amazing I mean it listen it's blowing my mind I think it's going back to the highs but I don't think it's going to hit the highs and we just underneath them is like unreal check out steve's newsletter folks mastering probability tfnn have a great one steve have a safe one