 Great Welcome to DCA live where we talk about what's going on in the crypto universe and try to break it down to the bite-sized pieces To as best as we can as always I've got friends the show James from the best answers James is in the hotel room in some undisclosed location James Thanks for stopping by as you're traveling Thank you and then of course from into the crypto verse As always the stall worth here again after his Magnificent run of having people on his show talking about bitcoin check out that series It's great a lot of different people that you may or may not have heard of and they just talk about bitcoin. What's going on? So ben thanks for stopping by Oh, thanks for having me of course so guys Um, and of course you can always find james on the best answers and ben in the crypto verse links in the description Also, you can find more james as patreon and ben over at app dot into crypto verse dot com So it was going on today in the market Of course, we've been getting our teeth kicked in for quite some time So let's try to keep it as much positive as we possibly can not to say that the market isn't Going to go down or it's going to be awful or whatever else and not to inflate. Hope him. Let's just Show a different side. It's the first one So once since everyone's negative Let's talk a little bit of positivity. So what's your metric narrative or analysis that keeps you positive? Especially in this bear market also, is this the first day of the recession And uh, is that universally bad for everybody? depending on where you're at third bitcoin ethereum, what's that back up the truck price is that uh, bitcoin at 17k 12k 10k and why do you think that is? and then second to last Let's move forward to 2025 What's your portfolio look like And which crypto has the most weight and lastly? Just to get everybody's mind off things. We're doing this weekend What are you doing this weekend? And how do you get away from crypto as it is a constant part of your life? My life and probably everybody who watches the streams live. How do you get away with it? What are you doing? So let's start with the first one What's your positivity so James since you're up here and you're you might be a little glitchy Uh, so everybody knows that james is in a undisclosed location in some hotel James, what's your metric narrative or analysis that keeps you positive in this bear market? It ain't easy So what do you got? Yeah, it's yeah, it's been it's it's been rough but you know for those of you who've been in the markets for a long time, we've seen many of these and Obviously and the old cliche is bear markets or declining markets Or when most millionaires are created? And if you as an investor follow a strategy and invest all the way down or have a strategy have a process It's a great way to enhance wealth. I can't remember if it was a few days ago or a few weeks ago but if you look at you know Buying certain things at certain rates and then them going back up to certain targets We can talk about some numbers afterwards The returns can be staggering, but it's very very hard time as well And it's like it's like being in the storm in an ocean And it's dark you're sailing through the night Uh, you think you're not going to survive winds are 40 miles an hour or 60 kilometers an hour or whatever And everything's breaking and you think you're gonna die and then 6 a.m Light appears and water gets calm and that's that's what I think Uh, I think we'll be there in September The next 60 90 days will be very choppy But there's a lot of fundamentals that are indicating a chance Of a fed pivot because that big storm we're in now is controlled by the fed as well as all the other macro stuff happening But we'll see. There was also a funny article I saw last night. It was like You know, I think last time we were together I spoke about the fact that d gens are still out there and that's explained by bitcoin dominance being at 43 percent or something Last time I checked but she by in who was the biggest surger in the last 24 hours In the top 100 cryptos. So it just shows you that Yeah, the d gens are alive and well Um people are still going to the ish coin casino to play And that's where we are But uh, yeah, that's that's just my take for now. It is ugly. You mentioned kicking the teeth I use that expression a lot too um, we've had everything thrown at us as well as unprecedented events of cascading liquidations and another one just hit the news wire a few minutes ago too So That's where we are Gotcha. Yeah, that is uh, that is what it is. Let's not let's call spade a spade ben What do you got? I mean because you've been around longer than us So where's your positivity for this because this is quite extended um I guess the main positivity is for the people that at least stick around is probably where I would be the most positive and It kind of encourages me to keep making videos through the bear market is because I know there's There's people that that actually do stick around during these times and and they'll be the ones to benefit the most eventually Even if even if there's more pain to come first so I would say the one thing that I enjoy about about bear markets and once you get closer to the end of bear markets is That at that point It's you know, people start to like buy hope of like they they buy their investments that really undervalued prices And they sort of hope and dream of what it might one day be When you're at the peak of a bull market, it's really hard to sell greed, you know, because You'll laugh at um But anyways, I I would say the thing that keeps me the most positive is isn't is You know, assuming that the people that that are are still sticking around and and will continue to stick around for the next several years will ultimately um You know come out much better. I'm assuming they're not just throwing all their money in the uh, you know in the random coin casino But that's probably what keeps me the most positive and and also seeing that I mean, I know the macro looks bad and I mean, I I think james is a little bit more optimistic when with the fed pivot I I think the fed's probably not going to pivot till next year is is my guess um and I mean again, you kind of see it all lining up right like we have a bear market for a year or so We have an accumulation phase for a year or so and then the fed will pivot and then we have the next bitcoin having and That's sort of what keeps me positive is knowing that like that's eventually company coming no matter how no matter how bad it gets Here in the short term. Yeah, it's it's uh, you know, I was listening to you put out a video For your for your your website and it was like a like a q&a Video and you were talking about you're like this is This is when when the best time to be in cryptos when it's boring when everything is just kind of it's choppy It's going sideways and everybody's just like i'm out. I'm out of here and that's when You find that the investors who want to stick around are the ones that get rewarded now It sucks right now and you can even tell like like my voice James ben were a little bit more even kilter or not like upbeat like when bitcoin was 64k I think we're getting closer To that point that capitulation and people like i'm just out of here I'm just out of here and you can you can do that. I mean, I think james One of his videos he had a good point. It's like look don't check in every day You know come in every so often and and you know check the videos out and see what's going on But don't be in here every day, especially on these boring days. So for me, it's the same thing I just look at what has happened before and every time. I think it's going to be different. There's four words In investing which are the worst Which are this time it's different. It's never different. There's there's slight fluctuations There's there's different things that that happen, but in the big grand scheme of things It's it's all cycles and this is just one of those cycles. So that brings my next question for you guys Is this the first day of the recession? We're on july 1st. We know that q1 there was a decline in GDP and The question then is of course Are we In our recession already so ben since you're up there. I'll start with you um I tend to think we are yeah, I tend to think we are and I think that um I mean, it's it's a natural progression here I mean, you know every recession that I can think of and that I've looked at it It's always caused by the fed reacting to something and you know They've talked about About trying to achieve a soft landing But I I don't really see how that's going to be possible in the same way that You know in the same way that they probably waited too long to pivot They're probably going to wait too long to pivot back, you know, they're probably going to overdo it We're going to go into a hard landing and then once there's enough pressure They'll likely pivot back, you know to to being you know to not being so so So hawkish, but yeah, I would say it is we're likely In entering into a recession if we're not already in one and I mean, you know with that in mind if If if this continues and I mean there could be layoffs and whatnot and that's why That's why I keep saying I I want to I want to help temper people's expectations on on You know a theoretical v-shaped recovery Which is likely not happening given the macro right now, right? I mean, there's one thing to be positive about things But there's also it's also useful to be realistic and and so that you at least temper your expectations and so you know what to expect If you go in with expectations that are reasonable Then you won't be disappointed if if that happens And if it and if you go in with expectations that you think reasonable But they're actually too conservative then maybe you'll be pleasantly surprised later on I I prefer to be extremely conservative with with the view and then just be pleasantly surprised when when the market does better than I'm expecting Um, so yeah, I mean it probably the first day of the recession. I I assume I think I saw some gdp data that was already Thinking it was going to be what negative one percent or something. Yeah So I think by a lot of standards Yeah, so I mean by by a lot of you know by a lot of people's definition That would be the definition of a recession though. I'm sure I'm sure some you know, some people maybe even including the Fed or you're just going to say well the job market still strong You know, whatever Yeah, again, a lot of this stuff is just lagging indicators, right? If we're head if we're into if we're entering into a recession It's only a matter of time before Unemployment rate goes up more than likely. I mean, this is at least my understanding of it even if it's not an ignorant understanding I haven't really um been through too many recessions myself the last big one again was in 2008 and I was I was still in high school Maybe Yeah, well before I go to james The the next part was this is our recessions universally bad. You talked about he said look there's layoffs growth has been stalled We see a lot of problems, especially with like at at the pumps. Well, that's more like supply chain issues, but Recessions universally bad for everything and the sky is falling or what's the silver lining if any And that's and that and that's for ben. Sorry I'm sorry. You just said what's the silver lining for it? Yeah, is there if there if there ever is a silver lining for a recession Is there anything positive about a recession that you can take out of it or is just like I think it just leads to opportunities I mean again, if you if you look at what happened in 2008 And this is what I I've told people on my channel for You know quite some time. It's that it sucks in the short term like it's awful But you go look at a you know go look at a chart of say like the s&p or the nasdaq and think about the people that we're buying At the bottom like think about how well they did over the next decade So yeah, like it it absolutely it absolutely sucks right now and and what I what I've told people for the last several months is that You know what gives you the most power During the bottoms of a bear market are are it's if you have Cash to take advantage of it right like you know all coins that are down 95 percent if you held them all the way down That's not what's going to give you power in in in a recession or in the pits of a bear market It's it's the cash you stack and you can come in and you can scoop up to pass that so you know, I mean we're certainly getting much further along in this bear market, but That's the silver lining right it sets up opportunities That you simply would not have without without some type of of major correction. I mean, you know like the dot-com crash sucked in 2000 as well But what happened? I mean, you know the nasdaq dropped 83 percent And and and then look what look at look at internet companies today You know if if crypto crashes 83 percent from the all-time high of three trillion that would put it at well Like 500 billion 600 billion it's already at eight or 900 billion Yeah, exactly. You can just sort of imagine that it's just the dot-com 2.0 And you know like eventually we'll we'll sort of come out of it and there'll be more useful Companies that that come out of come out of this bear market But I'm just thinking like you know the silver lining is that if you stick around you have the most to gain If you if you leave and return later, then you're probably gonna you're not going to get the best deals Yeah, that's that's a good point First of all dot-com 2.0. And if you leave, you know, what are you gonna do just take huge losses and go? Well, that's it. I guess it's not for me. Anyhow James Recession or not silver lining. What do you think? I'm wondering. Can I share something? Sure. I've never done this before Slide share screen. I don't want to see myself Share screen it'll say windows We like doctrine options. Oh crap So No, okay, I'm not even about the trying now what I can probably do is text it to you and and share it that way but the point is it's just that debt and the fed funds rate, but basically it's the last 42 years of aggregate debt federal debt debt debt everywhere all over the place and you have images of all the debt going up and to the right And then over the last four or two years you got the interest rates Going down To the right. So you got this perfect inversion of increasing debt. We live in a debt bubble There's no if on their butts. So my point is and I know people think I'm crazy But if they do hike January, February, March 2023 that will a first financial Armageddon, so they've it's just I've heard every 20 basis points crushes economic growth, which is guaranteed Anytime they hike It just spins us deeper in that hole and the fed know this and this is why I believe They can't do that. So the question regarding the recession Was it how bad would it be? Was it bad universally? And I'll go back to experience. It depends on a couple of things one the breath and the depth which means how long and how deep I think The governments with mmt. They're so used to now pulling things out of recession by quantitative easing Mm-hmm And monetary policy they'll keep it short and remember it's just you know Minus 1% minus 1.6% growth Technically it is a recession, but I think it'll be brief and it won't be that deep And remember we're in an election year. So they need James needs a better internet. That's what he needs. Sorry, James. You're a little glitchy today Maybe um, maybe try turning your video off and then maybe the audio will Ah, perfect. Maybe one idea, but yeah, okay. I'll let me try to do that. Sorry about that everybody Stop okay. Uh, where did you lose? Where did you lose me? So you're talking about GDP and you thought it'd be very uh, or the recession be You were talking about why you like Cardano more than Solana. I think yeah, that's what that's what it was And you're and you're a huge Cardano bull exactly You guys are good So anyway, real brief in short, I reckon the recession will be short It'll be kept short to be in time to rebound for the elections in November Or else the democrats are going to be completely murdered in the election in November And uh, the problem is inflation That's a huge reason, but I think inflation is coming down, especially when you look at all the commodity prices right there Uh, and the market may go low. The x factor right now is how earnings will be impacted. They definitely will be impacted And that will bring stocks down a little bit further. So I'm still Waiting for the opportune time. Hope that was clear Now that was clear and it it's all opportune times the the thing that that I look at it I've been talking about this. I thought we're gonna be in a recession and it's gonna happen This is that's just how I see I don't think inflation has peaked whatsoever But I could be wrong But I will say this like just remember everybody this is from straight from the st. Louis fed We talked about this a lot dates of years recessions and you can see that usually it lasts about two years and again It's a it's a light indicator. So just like ben had talked about, you know, they'll probably clamp down And they'll pivot they'll pivot and then they'll pivot too late. So this is about a year and a half Already two years year and a half year and a half All the way to jeez how many six seven seven years two years And then over here at 2000 the dot-com That wasn't that bad actually. What was that like a year? and then all this economic growth and then 2000 Lehman brothers and everything else and crashed two two and two and a quarter years But look at all this growth. So remember like recessions, we say they're awful But they don't last forever It's just time and time is what you have on your side If you want to do those dollar cost averaging gets up at really cheap prices. All right, so that's that part That's my little rant and by the way rob. I texted you the Chart if you can pull it up. I don't know if you can easily. Let's see I can pull up something Oh, this is on Sorry, man. I don't have uh, yeah, wait. What's that? I'll get to in a second. But as I'm doing that and doing all this nonsense This is a good question back up the truck price Bitcoin back up the truck Ethereum back up the truck price. Where is it for you and you and of course Within reason if someone says a hundred bucks bitcoin, it's not going to a hundred bucks or maybe it could who knows it's crypto But within reason where you're like, okay, that's probably Not as low as it could get but pretty close. So then I'll start with you because you're big on this one No, everyone always like we are talking about this for the last half year, right? Like what's the bottom every everything? Look, I mean certainly below 20k is is reasonable for a multi-year outlook But I I don't really think it's a specific price for me What it would be would be When the macro looks better, you know, like yeah, and again, we've seen the s&p drop until inflation peaks um I'm not saying I'm going to wait for the fed to pivot before I would back the truck up because again The fed's probably going to pivot too late and and again my my my assumption is that the market will already price in the fed pivoting before the fed pivots um Because the market's really great Knowing what's going to happen before it actually happens, right? Like it's because people are actually their money's at stake, right? So they they do their their homework to figure out what we know what they think's going to happen So I would say, you know, one of the one of the most simplest simplistic indicators to look at It's just like an inflation, you know Inflation goes up fed's not going to pivot. I don't think the fed's going to pivot when it with inflation going higher I think that they are Are very much set in that they will fight it until it starts to come back down and until until we see a peak You know, you should assume that the bitcoin could it could go lower or if it doesn't go lower It could at least go sideways, you know I mean if bitcoin is at 17k in a year and you buy it then It's not really a huge difference between buying it now 17k except for maybe some capital gains and implications I saw someone say that, you know, um Capital gains is something people are going to have to worry about in 2022 But yeah, I would say for me it's and I'm not trying to just give a cop-out answer But it really is just to say like I don't know exactly where where the bottom is I have a ton of indicators that you know a couple of them a couple of them say that the bottom could be in But there's still plenty that that say there could be you know, there could be another leg down And even if you look at prior bear markets compared to where we currently are today We're more or less right where we Right where we have been if you compare to the 2018 bear market and the 2014 bear market We're basically at the same ROI as measured from the peak So again, what I'm looking at isn't really as much of a price as is time frame Uh, it's when I want to come in and and my guess is some of the best times to come in are going to be um later this year and and for you know part of a good part of 2023 in preparation for the bull market But unfortunately, there's not there's not a specific price I mean like if if in the middle of 2023 If bitcoin is at 20k and inflation starts to come back down I'm backing up the truck right if bitcoins at at at 14k in the middle of 2023 and inflation started to come back down I'm backing up the truck right so i'm just looking at inflation and and trying to anticipate When the fed would then react to the inflation starting to come back down Gotcha Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. I can see that. All right. So let me go back James, I think what do you got? Let me kill my camera so I can talk Sounds good So but it's it's a tricky one to say. I hope you guys can hear me clearly Oh, yeah Tim draper and great tip there Ben. Thank you for that. Tim draper Double down on his bitcoin prediction of 250k by year and this year or early next year I know that sounds like crazy. Hope you but he's done a lot of work behind the scenes that are tied to Metcalfs and more women coming into crypto, etc. Which is great I do see and we're just talking short term now I think 50k by year and as possible We have a lot of woods to get out of but we know how fast bitcoin can move once that pivot happens If it happens, no guarantees not financial advice, of course But in terms of your november 2025, I had no idea where you got that date from Interesting, but my two big bets for that Long-term time frame my kind of huddle bags are bitcoin and tesla. I know this isn't a tesla show But just say that but what's really interesting is I don't believe bitcoin will by any stretch be the best performer But the question is identifying You know what the gains would be getting back to all-time highs So for example bitcoin getting back to an all-time high is 250 return investment Ethereum is 360 percent return investment Solana is 750 percent return investment avalanche is 800 return investment I I'd actually think let me try calculate real quick what the ROI would be on cardano 600 to get back to $3.09 so that is kind of What's going to win the day and when you play the long-term game, you know, like the ice hockey guy Wayne Gretzky said you want to play where the puck is going to be so for me crypto In 2025 is identifying now Which chain will have a billion users? That's it. It's not going to be bitcoin Might be probably not unless they build a whole bunch of layer twos on top of it And that is the question and then when you when you back into that you could take a billion users You calculate say each user's worth 50 to 100 dollars. That's your market cap That's where you want to be that's where you want to position yourself And if you can identify what that asset is You'll do very well and that's what i'm focused on Yeah, I don't yeah, so it makes a lot of sense and then to share what you were talking about Here is the graphic you were saying Yes in the fed funds rate Yeah So there's a simple way to look at this everybody is look at the amount of aggregate debt up into the right And look at the line of interest rates going down They can't breach that downward trend and I know ben you love those lines and you see that line the perfect line there Can they beat a fence fed funds rate of three percent? The answer is if they do go above that That will be financial contagion armageddon like we've never seen and that's just math It's nothing else and that's a great chart from like young Yeah, well don't put don't put anything in past America. We seem to want to do whatever we want to do But I will say this what we're talking about What a ben's point was uh, you're like, hey, I don't know what the price for back of the truck or doing these things probably I missed that. Sorry. Yeah, um, I'll turn off my camera again For me, I don't think I'd buy ethereum I'd be buying other assets Because I think ethereum has a lot a lot of value priced into it already But it hasn't performed against the price the market cap, you know, you look at any metric users Tvl, etc. Etc. It's just dwindling away But again identifying What the backup price is I do have my backup price for some other names And I think if there is a double bottom around 17.5 of bitcoin That's a sign where you you know think about getting into a position. Yes, it could go all the way down to 14k but It's going back to 50 in the next six to 12 months for sure As many people say unless of course we are in this financial armageddon model, which is What this points out here is if they do completely break the system Then all bets are off and that's why I say we're under that cloud of the fed Yeah, I Me first I have no idea I have no idea So I'm just looking at this thing is going you know what as the price goes down and probably buy a little more And I think I think the problem one of the problems though is that chart doesn't really show the 70s when inflation was like so high So like you could argue that like the trend works for a long time Up until inflation becomes an issue and then they have to break it because I mean, what would you I guess would you rather live in high inflation or would you rather live with um I mean, I mean high inflation would suck or would you rather live with just like a recession trying to trying to curb that inflation Yeah, but but you know the the other angle there is If you spoke about capital gains tax, there'll be no taxes this year I think something like 20 to 30 percent of all u.s. Tax receipts are based on returns in capital gains That's gone So tax revenue is in the hole which means deficits will be huge And that's not even taking account for anything else So again their deficits only going to get bigger And the more they layer on the cost of financing that debt the more they shoot themselves in the foot I can imagine you had a household where You know you got 30 trillion in debt Would you add another 30 trillion when you're not going to make any money next year? No And would you and would you double the interest rate you're paying on that debt? Would you shoot yourself on the foot and that's the simple way I think about it? Yeah, but you got to remember like the funny thing about america is that we seem to We seem the politicians seem to talk about the future But then when it actually comes to action So let's hold totally different thing just take a look at social security now. They kind of borrow from that and kind of kind of Mortgage that part or something else. So to me personally like if I take a look at j pal always trying to do I think he's like look. I just my job is his interest rates. Let me get down to control So the future well good luck because I got to do this and that's my job And I'm going to invoke volker for what he did in the 80s and we'll go from there So what's the old expression? No politician ever gets reelected on an austerity program period Well, it all depends. We'll see what happens this time because it seems like it's going to be quite a shift in america But we'll find out But I will say that the back of the truck thing just to make things simple Like I just think of it like we're all We have our theories and whatnot, but this comes to mind The one of the Rothschilds fortunes are made by buying low And selling too soon which means I will never be able to time it perfectly to the bottoms So i'm just going to keep buying as time goes on I might even as as james calls it DC iron steroids on ben ben calls it dynamic dc yang But look, we're never going to make it right. That's just how that's just how it's going to be But the thing is is that right now at what's the price for bitcoin 19,000? 19 five Shocker, so it'll probably go down more So maybe you want to look into that not financial advice and just go from there and then to get to james last point was You know how to get to 2025 it's because I still believe in the four year cycles 12 13 14 15 having all-time high dip or sets 16 17 18 19 2021 I could have sworn that come we go to 100 ptk totally wrong And then here we are on this big dip and a reset and then I think we're gonna see the same thing I know I know there's a having come in 2024 And then hopefully we see an all-time high in 2025. That's where it came from. So that was the question But let's go. Let's move forward Oh, that was it. Sorry Oh 2025 that was what we're gonna do. What's your portfolio look like? Excuse me What's your portfolio look like and which crypto has the most weight at this point? Is this going to be still bitcoin heavy or do we already answer this? We kind of touched on I think. Yeah, let's just go for that one. Let's go to the next one so Look This market sucks. Can we all agree? Yeah, it's pretty awful And we take a look at our portfolio a little bit way too much What's everybody doing this weekend to get away from crypto because remember you can look at your portfolio all day long But I can almost guarantee it's going to go down this weekend. So if you want to do that, it's up to you What are you guys doing? Ben? I'll start with you Um Well, my my in-laws are in town. Look at the excitement of Ben's face No, I mean so I I so we're probably gonna um hang out with them some uh and You know just show them around a little bit. Um, I also have you know kids and Well, we we we normally do some like fun activities with them like take them to a park or You know, sometimes they have like sports like soccer games or swimming that kind of stuff So we'll probably just do some of that stuff. Um, we like going to the beach in the summer we're not going this weekend unfortunately, but um But yeah, these are just sort of like these summertime. No normal summertime activities. I guess uh to uh pass the time Yeah, I think this is perfect Selling may and go away. Sometimes that was a good advice. We get done the things with our families. James you I know you're uh Taking up some issues with the some real estate properties. What's up this weekend? uh Nothing much usual just Hang low do a little cooking Got to buy some feed for the animals and Maybe plant a couple of things. That's it sounds like simple Simple easy peasy lemon squeezy. I uh personally we got our grandson in town So we'll be going to the water park probably the parks probably checky cheeses all that great stuff and then uh the weekend a little volleyball if I can squeeze it in and then Get another airbnb ready That's it. So that's all we got by the way, I do uh, you know a small chance could be a Very small percentile chance that could be a whale manipulation this weekend You know with the very low volumes a lot of people uh in the markets are checked out They're doing family stuff fourth july weekend. So yes expect during us hours A big maybe manipulation if there is leverage positions that can be Struck upon So so essentially james is telling you what he's doing this weekend He is using his well position as well number three to move them Just watch for that because that can happen. This is you know Be ready there could be a 17 000 hit just very quick quick. I don't know highly unlikely but possible This is what they do. They they wait for these quiet times and Perfect So that would lead us so that gets done with our questions. Let's do a little q&a and keep it light This is a good one. Uh ben is too white to go to the beach that may be true. I'm not uh, I'm pretty sure He uses sunscreen like the rest. They're not wrong And let's see here's what we got Oh, thanks, steven. Snyder the three migos are back. Yeah, we've had some a lot of traveling and expect more Expect more volatility than dca show because I got some more travels coming up. So we'll go from there m robbins maddock I still like maddock Rockdog says that's quite the graphic. Thank you. That was uh my own doing for the thumbnail. I appreciate it This is funny. Tommy says wow. Wow. Wow. Hope you m rug pull scam. I love this guy But I hate that guy if you could thanks for all the moderators by getting rid of uh, Rob's a moron, which is partially true and all the things that we talk about but I but uh Nobody nobody has to fill the chat with his nonsense But it's fun. It's fun to talk trash about people, right? That's why keyboard warriors will always live strong Yeah, rob. You have to be one of the best troll killers out there. I love it. I do it for the trolls I love them So, uh, yeah last time last time they said they said this uh, someone said Uh, this guy is a clown. He doesn't know what he's talking about and I was like Yeah, I guess so so yeah, that was that and then uh, what else we got Okay, then what's a realistic price on september 17k? I don't see why not um september 2022 I guess Yeah, I mean, I I think it's gonna be relatively boring for the next I mean for the next half year. I mean my guess is like um, a lot of choppy behavior Probably a tendency to want to want to go down with some rally, you know some bear market rallies along the way. Um Yeah, I mean, I don't think it'll be drastically Like I don't think it's gonna. I mean, I know some people are calling for like a 3k bitcoin, right? I don't I don't think we're going down that low, but that would be awesome But I I could see us I could certainly see us below You know below 20k still in five and five september. I'm hoping that you know, I mean again normally you look back 20 again You said it earlier wrong in like 2014 2018 Both bear markets Both had a had a bias towards the downside and it sucks and you know, I mean people say that we're being pessimistic I would say it's not being pessimistic. It's just being realistic You know, it's just saying like look, this is what's happened and there's no reason to assume This time is different, right? I mean if you just assume this time is the same then so far for the last half year You're doing great, right? If you just remember that that you know cash has been king and In a bear market and and then you can use it as as you know, during phases like this when it's very undervalued It just kind of picks them up occasionally but Yeah Sounds good James the same thing Well I think whatever happens is going to happen fast. Let me turn off my camera. I see guys are giving me so the Again, it just depends on what the fed says and does they've got the july meeting Then the september meeting. We've got the cpi print coming out in the middle of july Yeah, and then the gdp Around the same time that will determine everything going forward And if they are in any way positive like for example, the perfect scenario is gdp is minus one percent And the fed adds 50 basis points and they say, okay, we're stopping for now until gdp comes back The instant that that happens Markets will rock it higher. That's it. That's just what they do So you just got to be Prepared to be on the train for when that happens and many people and i'm interested in your your both your takes in this Many people believe that bitcoin will be the first thing to rebound the first asset for a number of reasons One it's so beaten down two It trades 24 seven, etc Three a lot of people are looking to kind of pin the tail on the donkey nail the bottom. What do you guys think? That's that's up for then I mean with regards to bitcoin specifically Yeah, I mean, it's incredibly beaten down But I I've said this for the last several months and I I feel like I'm just gonna grow old saying it I want to see a bitcoin only rally. That's what I want to see Forget everything else for a few months and let's just see that and then I'll start to get more optimistic about all coins Are you talking your own portfolio right now? Hey, I I never said I'm not biased. I mean, you know, I'm certainly biased and I think my bias shows Dude, we're all we're all biased a lot, but I mean, you know, I was hoping we would see some type of relief last month and it and it didn't happen So I mean, certainly we'll we'll see some rallies at some point The now the nasdaq is what I mean the nasdaq's close to it's 200 week sma I I was looking, you know back in um the dot com crash in the financial crisis The nasdaq saw a nice 20 to 30 balance off its 200 week Even even though it ultimately went lower We at least saw that that temporary balance. So I'm I'm I would be a lot. I mean everyone keeps saying and I see the comment down below that Why has been so pessimistic? I Okay, if you think about if you think about the last like five months, like I've been fairly pessimistic Has it been like what reason has it been to be optimistic? You know, I mean, that's true We were trading it like, you know 19 000 like what? um But look, I mean, you know fast forward if we fast forward one year one year from right now Right, the fed is either probably about to pivot or, you know, either maybe they already did pivot We're gonna have the halving insight I'm gonna be extremely optimistic that Yeah, but right now I I think we're just sort of coming into that, you know coming in to find the bottom and then once we find that bottom You know some choppy behavior off the bottom for a while and then we'll Turn back up or remember these things take a while to play out It's not, you know, they don't play out over a single month. I mean, it's probably gonna play out over years Right is the bear market has already been going on for seven months from as a measure from november So this is true and I remember like we talked about this. I think we talked about, you know A long time ago. We're saying is this the bear market? That was the question You know, and I saw in the chats and people were like, no, I still got time like no this This is just going bad and then so so the question was Uh, somebody bought bitcoin at 17 seven. Is that a bad buy? I don't think it's a bad buy me personally Um, I happened to catch it myself. I don't know how I'm not really good at that But I bought it like 17 7 6 8 or something like that and I was like, that's pretty good Over time like in five years. Is that a bad buy? Probably not. Is that a bad buy at a month? Who knows? I mean it could it really could go out in 13 or 12 and then people like well That was a bad buy not really because if you're here for a month, then you're in the wrong place, honestly That's why you say, you know DCA, right? I mean like 17 5 and in five years is probably going to be a comically low price In in two months, maybe it'll be seen as a high price. I don't know but Yeah, I think you hit the nail on Helen Allen Yeah, James, what do you got? Well regarding the nasdaq number you mentioned ben You know, we pierced it in 2009. We got close in march 2020 But since then we haven't been close and right now we are What percentage away from the 200 week on the nasdaq it's about 18 percent So If if it does happen and we go to that 200 weeks another 18 percent of the tech stocks to go down But remember you can't look at index as a whole because it includes a whole bunch of zombie companies as well Even in the nasdaq index never mind the s&p 500 Are we only five percent away from the 200? Uh I'm looking at the nasdaq index not the nasdaq 100. Are you looking at the nasdaq 100? Yeah, I'm looking at the what yeah the us 100 index for the nasdaq. Okay. I'm looking at the ix. I see Hey, as you guys are looking at is did Arthur Hayes from bit max that he says some kind of warning this weekend I'm I guess a lot of people are getting giving warnings. I see like he said something different. So now Uh, oh, that's nice. John. All right, so let's see. This is a good question. This is for everybody When the super six rob james Ben guy George And cto larson can you imagine six people on this show would I don't think would ever get anything done It would just be like talking and talking and talking. I mean that would be a cool show. I'll be honest with you but uh Get all six people. I don't think it's ever gonna happen Maybe it's also hard. I feel like it's hard to um coordinate with that many people because Because I mean you have to find a time for six people to work Uh, yeah, especially cto. We're cto at james sweet, what's one Sweden sweden That's not that'd be that'd be pretty pretty cool. You know what that'd be good That'd be good to like that would be good for like guys conference that he has like in london That would be that would be great. But who can who knows? Which hose can surf I can surf a very badly. That's about it. And then let's see Oh, james can surf. Hey, look at that. Watch out now anything on a board Not not well, I I send up paddle boards surf Better than surf surf because I'm a little Yeah heavier than I should be I can answer this then you still dc in bickland. I'm gonna guess yes james. Probably yes me yes And no, I haven't bought anything. I've traded stuff swapped in and out of stuff a lot but I haven't actually bought anything in a long time and A couple of months. So I'm waiting for the signal to go and I just I just not seen that yet I did pick a little bit up recently. I I I mean I I told myself a long time ago I mean if it goes below the 200 week moving average, like Yeah Have to pick some up, right? You gotta pick some up But I I fully expect that I could get wrecked on that buy in the short term So I'm not like I'm not buying it with the anticipation that it's about the skyrocket I I bought some while still holding cash in case it in case it goes down I I still I still think that like we have a while to accumulate at these prices And I don't I don't think we're gonna be back at 50k in a month. You know, I mean we're Like we got we got time Dude, we got we got time. What's up james? I'm gonna wait for the clouds to clear And until then nobody's jumping in you know, it's it's tough to do nothing, right? Sometimes it's tougher to do nothing to Because you want to buy you want to buy you want to buy or you want to sell yourself But to just sit there just just wait it out for months I think that's the harder thing as far as an investor and wait for the opportunity But that's what the good ones do and I find it difficult as well And there was one piece of good news as well just to share I don't know if anybody saw it, but jp morgan did come out I can't remember when I saw that's there two ago, but they said all the liquidation all the liquid of all the Margin has been washed out of the system with the exception of maybe a little bit of the minor Yeah margin. So that could be A positive, but I don't necessarily trust what comes out of jp morgan's mouth Well jp morgan man, what are you gonna do? All right, I'm just looking for some questions. I think everybody's just They've written this they've written this weekend off essentially Yeah What this is nothing about the positive the oh jacobi bitcoin spot etf Oh, yeah, of course the etf was denied. That's crazy. Who'd have thought that? Uh, surprise surprise Exactly how about this one? Uh Seen the chart on the gold during risk. I don't bend didn't you and james talk about this chart on gold during a recession Gold always pumps before the stock Yeah, it's it's funny because gold has the most perfect macro backdrop That I know of that I've been watching gold for and it is stagnant. I let me see what it's at right now Yeah, oh, that's even weak And silver is below 20 Wow, why okay, what about all those guys calling for three digits silver? What are they thinking now? I don't know. I guess Some of the metals will only start to go up after the dollar stops the dollar is still going up. So I gotta tell you I tip my hat to the precious metal guys because I mean they're pretty stable. Let's be honest So I did a tweet. I had a Uh, a bit or a gold bug on rob I think I forgot his last name, but nice guy And I was like, good job rob to just be stable as I lose 60 70 percent as my portfolio goes down He's like, yeah, you're welcome. But I mean that could be a pretty good It's checking account or same as account the gold silver bitcoin. Why not? anybody buying the Grayscale bitcoin trust premium Or discount, I guess if it goes to an ETF. No, I think it's I think it's a done deal for 2022 so The mistake that the grayscale team did was You know going after the sec ensuing them. You think they're gonna turn around and say, okay, we'll approve you now That's like, no They had a bad reputation to begin with with the sec and the sec is much tighter with the The black rocks and golden sacks and all those types of guys. I think gensler comes from golden sacks Um, but I I don't see them getting anything happened in 2022. So you're a right rob I thought there was like a small chance of it happening. But no Dude history. This is a good question. What super skills do you all have outside of financial skills? That's a good question Ben's a nuclear physicist or something Yeah, then it's like, yeah, I did that stuff That's a weird question. James. You know, james, uh, not just financial but uh real estate investor as well Yeah, and sailing uh, I was a former national sailing champion in two countries Duh, well, there you go. What about the dirt biking in in portorico? Yeah, so Portorico dirt biking races biking did that too Uh, that that kicked my butt dirt biking and tropical rainforest hardest thing I've ever done Hardest six hours of my life. Yeah. Yeah, not bad. Like and me and me. I can save your life Uh in a previous life. I was a combat medic And then an rn back in the day. Yeah, I worked in the burn unit icu's. So that's about it That was a james said this what is this? Who cares? All right, so on that note, I love trolls, man. They're the best dude. I gotta tell you they're they're the greatest everybody Let's get out of here early. Go enjoy the weekend. I'm sure it's a beautiful day wherever you're at Uh gentlemen, thanks again for stopping by. It's always fun to chat with you guys and just give it a new perspective So everybody appreciate you. I like the videos like and subscribe And that's it. Thanks so much. Adios. Thanks guys. Yep You