 On this channel, we've been preaching dollar cost averaging or DCA form pretty much as existence. And when a piece of data comes out that disproves that, I got to talk about it. And this was actually from bitcoinnews.com. And it's a pretty good website. The link's in the description. A lot of good information over there. And this little piece kind of caught me by surprise because in all honesty, I thought DCA was it, but maybe we're all wrong. So this was a report. DCA investment strategy could yield up to 75% less than a lump sum strategy. Well, tell me more. So this is what we have. Clients interested in buying bitcoin face a decision of when to invest for maximum returns. And I took a look at four different types. A DCA versus lump sum 2017 today, DCA versus lump sum 2019 today, DC versus lump sum 2021 today, and of course, the better DCA strategy. So let's just back up for a second and take a look at this. So this is actually a report. And they just kind of just did some backward looking data. And I have to stress this, that this is all data from bitcoin. This has nothing else with S&P 500, NASDAQ, any kind of all coins, only bitcoin. So we're going to take a look at this and see where we're at. So DCA versus lump sum 2017 to today itself. And the performance of different strategies were analyzed over the last six years, lump sum purchasing, outperform DCA strategies during this period. And it was like not even close as far as lump sums. So what I want to do, and it talks about how much more you can make here, and that's great, but what if we just broke that down into simpler terms? So what I'm going to do is, thankfully, Ben over into the cryptiverse, he's got this site where you can do DCA simulation analysis. And before I go over this, everything I'm going to do right now, you can very easily go over there and give this for yourself. And you know what, for the DCA strategy, it's free. If you go into the cryptiverse.com, click on get premium access, there's a light plan, it's called free. Now there's other ones, and there's a sale going on right now. And if you use my link, you get 10% off the first month. So have at it if you want to. But what I'm going to show you is in the free plan. Now there's a bunch of other things I'm going to show you today, which are not like treasury, treasure, yields and consumer loans debt, but we'll get into that in a second. So if we take a look here, Bitcoin DCA simulation analysis, let's just take Bitcoin, this is pretty much what they did. You can, it's 100 bucks or 10 bucks or whatever you, you know, whatever you think you're going to do, or whatever you want to play around with, and you can put in the amount here, I put in Bitcoin $100 per week, starting in January 1st, 2017, because that's pretty much what we have here DCA versus Lumsum 2017 to today. So what we have done, well, what they're saying is this, if you DCA, and we can see right here, it says $100 you're going to invest, and you would have on January 2nd, 2017, $100 worth of Bitcoin. And the price of Bitcoin on January 2nd, the asset price was $1,019. Pretty good. But if you just waited seven days, you would have got it at 10% off, just saying. But that doesn't matter. It's all going to be the longevity. So again, we have $100, and we're going to dollar cost average every week at $100. Now, if we would take that entire amount to 2020, or today, August 14, 2023, the investment amount would have been $34,400. So over here, we're going to take, let's just say for, for giggles, that we actually had $34,400. And we wanted to do this. We could just take that and drop it into one Lumsum, bam. And there we go. And before anybody starts to say, well, Rob, what about for like these incredibly overheated bull markets, like what if I would have bought in November of 2021? We'll get to that and just hold on. But let's just say that you're timing during a bear market. And there's a lot of bear markets if you believe in the four year cycle is like I do. I mean, it kind of just repeats and repeats. We had a halving in 2012, 2013 all time high 2014 and 15 were awful years 2016 we ramped up all for a halving 2017 all time high, 18 and 19 were bad years 2020 and on we go. So let's just say for for giggles, we put in $34,400. We didn't want a dollar cost average. Did you know that in that first bull run, if you would have done that on January 1 or second 2017, your Lumsum Bitcoin, if you would have sold at the top, which roughly December 18th, you would have had a profit of $647,000, $625,000, almost $650,000, which is almost a 1200% difference. Now, if you would have dollar cost average $100 every week for the whole year, you would invest at $5100, which is not bad. And you would have had $50,000, which had been a nice little 10x there. But again, it would take a look at the Lumsum strategy. It did work. Now, moving forward, we want to go on to the lean years. Again, if we would have Lumsum'd $34,000 back in the day, that $34,000 on February 25, 2019, which was not the best time as everything started to go down, excuse me, December 3, 2018, the Lumsum would have been worth $119,000. Okay, not too bad. You put in $34,000, but the invested amount was $10,200. So again, not too bad. Now, here's where it gets crazy. If you would have done it, and yes, we're cherry picking data and waited all the way through 2017 and just diamond hands it and went all the way here and you sold at the tip top. Congratulations. I couldn't do it. November 15, the original $37,000 that you invested into Bitcoin, that Lumsum would have been worth $2,215,000. But if you would have dollar-crossed average every single week, $100, you would have put in $25,000 and you would have had $317,000. So again, a little bit more like 10, 15x somewhere around there. Check my math. So it's looking pretty good. Again, things go down, things go up, but you're going to see that Lumsum strategy in this case, even in 2022, when we had a nice little fallout, your Lumsum would have been worth half a million dollars and what you dollar-crossed average would have been worth $2,000 and you would have invested $30,000. So that's looking pretty good. So that's the first one. And if we come down here, well, did the Lumsum beat DCA strategy? Well, as a matter of fact, it did. So 2019 today, same thing. All things being equal, 100 weekly, 2019. So we start here, $100, Lumsum of Bitcoin, $23,000. If we would have gone all the way over here and just waited, our Lumsum would have been worth $390,000. Not bad for dumping $23,000 into a very volatile asset class, but you can see how a Lumsum strategy vastly outperformed the dollar-cost average of 95,000 of the game, 95,000, 476. And then even in our lean years, you're still up a lot more. Again, investing $23,000, you'd still be up all the way through moving forward. So there is that positivity. But what about if we take a look at 2021 today? So if we take a look at that 2021, we're investing $13,500, getting the same thing. We started January 1, 2021 in the bull run years. And we can see that if we just drop it all on Bitcoin, again, the price on January 4, 2021 that would have been $33,000 close to what it is right now. We would have actually done okay if we would have just extended things out. April 12, 2021, pretty good time. We would have invested $13,500, and we would have almost doubled it in a very short amount of time, January, February, March, almost in two or three months. That's pretty good. And then of course, if we were to dollar-cost average, we would have put in $1,500, we still would have $2,000. But you can see that dollar-cost averaging, it's very safe. But as far as for the lump sum, we can see that it didn't do too well. However, moving forward, we can see that in actuality on the bull run years. As we get into March and the lean times, we can see that if we were to put in $13,500, you can see around here around June 2022, things start to switch. So the lump sum that you were up, now you're starting to come down. And you actually go into the red right around here, because what happened, you put a lot of money into it, and that's the risk that you take. Now, there's big gains to be had over here, but boy, you got to diamond hands forever, and just keep going, going. And some of you, that's what you do, and that's great. I'm not a financial advisor, you can do whatever you want to. So for this one in Bitcoin, I can say that in this situation for the past, it looks like, and it definitely is, that lump sum outperformed the dollar-cost averaging. Now, the better DCA strategy it talks about is longer DCA strategies performed worse than shorter ones, emphasizing the cost of waiting on the sidelines when investing in Bitcoin. Even when comparing daily DCA strategies, the shorter 10-day strategy performed better than the 15 and 30-day, though all slightly underperformed the average lump sum strategy from 2017 to 2023. And that's just talking about Bitcoin. Now, I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but I started to think to myself, well, there's actually two things. And the first thing I talk, I always remember is that there is a chart, and you can find this in the description below. It's just called my DCA five examples. Actually, it's six. I take a look at Chainlink and Dogecoin and a bunch of other different ones, Bitcoin, Ethereum, over how you would dollar-cost average. But there's a caveat, and I call it a dash assault. Even if you dollar-cost average, which as time goes on, you'll be pretty well, sometimes not as well as lump sum. But how would that look if we lump summed dash? Well, thankfully, Ben's got it on his website. So I picked dash and I put in $100 a week, starting in 2018, January 1st. Let's just go there. We'll just start 2018. If I would have lump summed that altcoin, here's what we're looking at. So again, $100 per week, 2018 to today. If I did that, that's about $29,000. If I did a lump sum, here I have $29,200 or $100 of dash. And as time goes on, and not that much time, I might add, from January to October, within the year, December 31st, 2018. Let me back this up a little bit. Lump sum, $2,000. You can see that I'm actually, unfortunately, in the negative actually, October. So I got a nice 10 months of going, I'm a genius, but actually all that's happening is I'm just bleeding against Bitcoin. So as we can see this, yes, lump sum strategy does work in certain situations, but I'm not going to say it's going to work in every situation. And that's the caveat. Then of course, we can see over here, well, what if I just hang on to it? Well, if you'd lump summed it going all the way to today, you'd have $877 out of that $29,000. But if you dollar cost average, you'd have $10,918, which is pretty good. But unfortunately, you invested $29,200 in the dash. Sorry about that. It didn't work out so well. Hey, these things are going to happen. So let's take a look at Tron. So lump sum again, we can see that in 2018, if we put in $29,200, we're doing pretty good. And tell about the end of the year, again, October, and all the coins start to fade. And we just see here that it just starts to go into the negative. Actually, let's see, lump sum, lump sum, yeah, right around August. That's not great. And then of course, we come over here. Now on the run up, that's not too bad. For the lump sum, you put in $29,200, your lump sum would have been worth $81,123. However, if we had a dollar cost average Tron back in 2018, $100 a week, you'd actually have $106,000, $297. And actually this purple graph will show you that the dollar cost averaging versus lump sum is vastly superior. Well, it's debatable if you say vastly, but it is superior and it's looking pretty good. Even today, you would invest $29,000. If you lump summed it, you'd have $43,000 and $69,000 for the dollar cost averaging. But what about ETH? Again, $29,200, we take a lump sum of $29,200, dump it on ETH on January 1st, 2018. How do we do? Well, not too well. Again, about a year or so, we'd already be down to $6,649. Actually, we're in the red and not doing so hot. So we go here, it's pretty much dead. And then of course, it starts to turn around. But what about in 2021? Well, if you lump summed it and put in $20,200 on 2018, you'd have $147,969.76. Not bad. But if you would just put a dollar cost average, you'd have almost double. If you get over to November 15th, and you got ETH at $331,000. So again, dollar cost averaging in this situation would have saved you a lot of pain moving forward. And then there's this. So I don't know what you want to do. My plan as I'm sticking to my plan is dollar cost averaging. I know right now, we could be headed to a lot of different pain. But for me, I look at these things and just take a look at the risk, the time in risk bands. And you can find that on the site and into the cryptiverse. But I talked about this recently, and it's very simple. The time in risk bands is as such. The different days that Bitcoin specifically, and I've mapped this out for Bitcoin and Ethereum and a couple other ones, and you can find this, is that one in this range of the risk level is 0.3 to 0.4. As an example, just to use round numbers, I'll put $100 a week. This is called dynamic DCA. As it starts to get a little more risky, I put a little bit less into Bitcoin. But if it gets less risky, meaning the price goes down, and we start to get into some negative yields, I start to put in more. And as time goes on, I put in more and more and more. Now, I did do this thing called micro DCA at one point where I reduced the amount that I actually put in, but I still followed the dynamic DCA. As we went down, I put it more in as we went up, I put less in. Now I'm doing pretty much the whole as buying whole as much as I can since, I think it was February of this year. So I was still buying the dip even in that November dip, but I wasn't doing as much. It is true. So we have this as far as dynamic DCA, that's just one option. And again, I just cannot stress this enough, which is you can do lump sum strategy. You can try that out. It's whatever you want to do. But just remember that we saw what happened in 2021 if we wanted the very top, the tip top. And right now people are saying, well, the market might just start to rip, and we might see all-time highs for the S&P 500. And of course, this Bitcoin heavens coming up, so it's going to be rosy and dandy, it's going to be awesome. But just remember that there are some shaky grounds afoot, and there is also a fear of recession. And recessions come, risk assets take a hit. There's this thing called a treasury yield spreads. And a treasury yield, the yield curve, is this is what it looks like now. And it shouldn't look like this. This is the one month, two months, three months, six months, all the way to 30 years for T bills. And what you get as far as your yield, a six month T bill, treasury at 5.55% is not where it should be. That means that you're going to lock this up for your fiat cash, you're going to almost, you're 5.5%. For three months, 5.5%. Two months, that's crazy. One month, 5.5%. But if you go 30 years, you only get 4.32%. In actuality, it should look like this. The longer that you lock up your fiat, it should be as such. And look at this back in 2020, this was awful, 1.41% for 30 years. So there is something wrong with the yield curve. And once we go into these, the treasury yield spreads, you can see that once it inverts, there's a bit of time. And that time, it could be six months, eight months. But after it uninverts, and goes back into the normal configuration, you're looking at between one month to six months of where we have a recession. These light white strips are recessions. And you can see that once we invert over here, and then uninvert, there's about six months or so recession. We invert, we uninvert about a month or two recession. We invert, we uninvert about six months recession. And so far, even over here in during the pandemic, right before the pandemic, we had a slight inversion, and then very small, very small recession. And this one looks like in my personal opinion, quite the biggest inversion that we can see as it's coming down here. And it hasn't fully uninverted up to the top. And it hasn't hit that timeframe. So a recession could be on the horizon. I'm not a macro economist. This is just the things that I see. But also there's some other concerning things like consumer loans, credit cards, and revolving plans. This is the debt that we have on our credit cards. You know, in America, we hit almost $1 trillion today. Well, only goes to 26 July. Oh, sorry, 2nd of August. And consumer loans, CC, and RP is $998 billion. That's almost a trillion in debt. People are putting in credit cards. Why are they putting in credit cards? Because they can't afford things. And what's going to happen? They're going to start to see a rise in delinquencies. And we can see that, the wing with C red and credit card loans is actually going up as time has gone on. So look, I'm not here to tell you what to do. I'm just telling you that these are the things that I see, they're concerning, but there are different options for you. I'm just trying to lay those out. So that's it for today. So look, you like today's video, give it a thumbs up, consider subscribing. Everything we talk about is time sensitive, especially moving into the Bitcoin halving, which will be April 2024. So that's it for today. Thanks so much for stopping by. I appreciate you. And I'll see you on the next one.