 Happy FOMC day, everyone. First trading day of November and we get to be graced with Jerome Powell. I don't know how you could think of anything better to start your month. So, sorry, I've got no FOMC jingle, no intro music. Sorry, yeah, I gotta crash. Maybe you can come up with that for us. So we got the, well, I was gonna say stocks are up, but Russell's actually down, S&P's up 15, NASDAQ up 108, Russell down eight, Dow up 52, gold and silver slightly red, notes and bonds are higher. Oil was up like 3%, it's now unchanged. Natty gas down 2%, grains mixed, Euro in the pound lower, Bitcoin flat. VIX down 3%, quite a little volatility crush these last few days. So first up, there's my option omega link. That's what I'll be doing for the initial FOMC iron condor. So for those of you who have not heard me say this or have not seen us trade this over the last several FOMC meetings, what typically happens is the data comes out here in about 13 minutes, right at 1 p.m. central. We typically get a little bit of a volatility contraction without a big move. Usually we see some, the market kind of gyrates around, but the idea is to book a little bit of profit. I'll have a profit target at 30%. That typically doesn't hit because I'll be out of the trade before the press conference starts. So at 225 Eastern, 125 central, I will be out of the trade. So I'll close that out right before the press conference starts and then shortly after the press conference starts, I'll enter my 30 delta long strangle. Usually we will have seen a nice contraction in implied volatility. So we're buying that at a cheaper price and then get some movement either during or after the press conference. So that, my friends, is the plan. Yeah, the second here, FOMC long strangle would be this one here. All the details are on the back test, Mr. Avenger. All right, so currently the $4 strikes are 4235 on the call side and 4180 on the puts. Go ahead and try to get filled on that at 830. Build at 825, 4235s and 4180s. I'll set up my OCO orders here. So I'll just put my limit at, say, let's put it at five bucks for now. Got filled at 825. So I'll set my stop at 1225, four bucks. So I'm doing an OCO on half and then I will create a duplicate OCO just in case we get a big ball crush. That's probably not gonna happen like this but just to have the orders in. All right, so data released here in about eight minutes. I'm gonna turn my TV on in the background. Hopefully you guys won't be able to hear it through the mic. Now we wait, my friends, now we wait. Quite a, I mean, it's not abnormal to get a little volatility contraction kind of muted price action leading up to FOMC but quite a little contraction today. Fixed down over 3.5% while we're waiting. Check out some other positions here. Very light on positions, my friends. Well, after this ball contraction, we've just been kind of booking trades. I've still got a short strangle in oil that's profitable but not close to its profit target. This one only has 43 days to expiration so I'll probably end up just closing this out by the end of the week. Hopefully scratch out a little profit. Got a hedgehog, an ES that's doing well. Got a reverse hedgehog in gold. It's up a little bit. Got a duck in rut that's in pretty good position. It's up a little bit. We've got about 10 days left on that one. Got a duck in SPX that is up the beak. That one has a November 17 expiration. Got a time fly that we added the upside diagonal to. That one is down slightly maybe right at break even. If price pushes above our call strike so above the 4220 level, which it easily could, I will be adding another upside diagonal or calendar. So I'm actually gonna put that on my little scratch pad here and might as well put everything else. I'm doing FOMC, IC, FOMC, 30 delta strangle. And then we've got our VXX call spread. We've already took half of these off. Started with 20. These last remaining 10 are up over 50% of max profit. Obviously if we get another vol contraction that'll come in so I may take some more off today if that does happen, if not, we'll hold. Also got a couple of calendars. One that we started out as a single put calendar. Ended up adding a vertical to the downside as a hedge when prices were getting a little sketchy. It's bounced back up. So down a little bit on that one. So we'll see where that one goes today. That downside hedge is not as good of a downside hedge as it was because the decay has come out of the vertical spread. Also got a TGIF prices above the call strike there but still in range. So a lot of times what we see happen with these calendar spreads is after FOMC the front options get crushed and assuming it's in good range, a lot of times we'll see some really decent profit come in. So we shall see if that is the case, just go around. So on our FOMC trade on a tiny bit, looks like Volatility got pumped a tiny bit after I put it on. Three minutes till go time. All right. Anybody else do any other trades today? I didn't set up a trade at the open just to watch but I'm assuming based on just kind of, we've gotten some additional Volatility contractions since the open. So you may have gotten some decay this morning on that AM trade but also had a decent swing. Expected move to start today was 34. We pushed up not quite to the expected move line. We were about seven points below it before we started grinding back down. 30 seconds until the data comes out. Yeah, futures were down last night and then the news came out this morning which was the ADP non-farm and the ISM. Well actually pre-market was the ADP non-farm employment change and that pushed stocks back up. All right, data's out. Looks like S&P is pushing higher to begin with. Look at the VIX fixed down 5%. As soon as that number came out, the VIX dropped. The VIX on my bottom side chart, that'll work. All right, so initial reaction S&P up a tiny bit and this PX right back down to where we started. Let's see, 10 year yield is lower. 10 year yield back down to 4.79. By the way, if you didn't know, that left the rates unchanged which was expected but it's all about kind of the forward-looking statements. Euro and the pound just slightly down which means relative, the US dollar would be slightly green today. VIX dropped but it started to pop back up. Not a whole lot of movement yet, which is good. Getting a little bit of decay coming in on the FOMC iron condor. S&P right back down to where we started. Getting a little eight or nine point push higher and then right back down. Meach, I don't have an order on that one. I'm just gonna wait till towards end of day before I pull the trigger on that one. I'm light on positions across the board. Light on PM positions. Light on premium selling positions. Got a couple of ducks on. Changed to the TGIF for a single calendar yet. So I got filled to 8.25. So technically 30% would be about 5.80. Got my order at 5.50. I'll just go ahead and push that up to 5.80. It's currently trading at 7.50. So we need a couple more bucks to come out here in the next 20 minutes for that to hit which if you look through the trade log, let's see, hit that 30% profit target. One, two, three, two, three, four, five. Looks like five out of the last 13 times it hit that profit target. So getting a little more decay coming in. Positions up about 1100. Profit target to close halves at 5.80. Currently trading at 7.20. So again, I'll close this about five minutes before the press conference starts. So at 2.25 Eastern, you're hearing about 15 minutes. Dark Avenger, I have a profit target of 30% to close half my contracts and then I close the rest based on the time. So I don't have a second profit target. SPX coming down a tiny bit. Vic's popping up a tiny bit. Well, CNBC says JP's gonna be devilish and more than likely it'll be hawkish, I'd say. Yeah, Quanteo, I just did the five cent five cent calls and the 10 cent puts. So the first five cent calls were right at 60 and then I just went a few down to get to pay 10 cents instead of 15 for the puts. Well, they usually do. Powell usually is live on CNBC. If you're just itching to watch him live. Vic's popping up a little bit, took away a little bit of our decay. Be nice to get a little bit of a push down here, maybe five or 10 points and then just a little bounce to suck the premium out right before, right here in the next 10 minutes, that'd be ideal. Well, the market's coming down, so Vic's would be going up. Russell's still red. Dow's getting close to unchanged. S&P's still up 13 as that kept 90. The X down to 4204. Vic's popping up to 17.66. I was showing around 1,200 a profit. Now that's shown about six to 800. So that's that little ball pump and your yield not moving much. Oil had like an inventory's number come out today. It was up almost 3% and I was down a half percent. Bitcoin's had quite a move the last few weeks from down around 27K up to 35K. Oh yeah, right, guaranteed month end crypto pump. You know, I don't believe you, Krish. You know, I can't believe anything that comes out of your mouth. We've gone over this. SPX trying to bounce back up. Have you been taking advantage of this month end crypto phenomenon with real money, Krish? Well, why not? Forge slash MBT, Microfuture. Are you asking me, Marl, have I been doing anything with the box trade? I have not. Five minutes till exit time. Got in at 825. It's currently trading at 740. Yeah, as far as the box trade goes, I think I haven't dug into it that much, but some people are kind of like, oh, won't you just buy treasuries? It's easier and simpler, but to each his own. Actually, I'm about 1,100 in profits with a few minutes to go. That's on my 10 lot. Trading down to 715. See if we can get a little more premium suckage here in the next couple of minutes. That's the official options trading terminology, premium suckage. Better move my first limit order up to 650. 50, see if it can come get me at 650. VIX getting a little contraction as SPX bounces. And we're trading at 680. I've got my orders to close at 650 and 640. If they don't hit, I'll get out here in the next one minute. About 670, about 680. Trading at 690. All right, 695. Closed half at 695. And, and 690. All right, so in at 825, out at 695 and 690. Not too shabby for a little, what is that, 25 minute trade, 35 minute trade? My longs are worthless. So I'll just leave those. In case J-PAL says something really crazy. So then here in about 10 minutes, I'll set up my 30 delta. Long strangle. Right now it would be the 4,200 puts, 4,230 calls. Currently trading at 1275. Let's see where that gets to here in the next 10 minutes. Yeah, quick little 20% pop. It's always good. SPX trying to push higher. Yeah, initially I did this. Instead of doing the 30 delta long strangle, initially I did a, just a RIC. And then I tested long straddles. In fact, that's what I was getting ready to trade several meetings ago. And then I think it was maybe Dan B, who posted a back test of a 30 delta strangle. And it does, I wouldn't say significantly, but it does it considerable amount better. So that's what I've been on for the last few meetings. So in the long strangle, I've got a 35% profit target. No, but I don't do power hour on FOMC days. You'll see the premiums most likely will look nice and juicy, like 20 wide, something like that. You'll think, oh, I gotta do power hour, but do a little testing. You'll know why I don't. Four minutes until I enter this one. Jerome is on the stand. He's on CNBC right now. Looks like I'm gonna go 4,235 calls. 4,205 puts. I'll give it another couple of minutes. SPX pushing higher. SPX likes the look of Jerome on the stand today. Must be his makeup. Oh, I assure you, Chris, he is on the stand speaking right now. I think your TV's on about a three minute delay. So, well, give it another minute. Yeah, absolutely a net. You can do power hour with really small of an account as you need to. In fact, I posted a 10 wide Tronch 2 version over the weekend. Once I get in this trade, I can repost that if you haven't seen it. What size account are you talking here? Small and large mean different things to different people. So, just curious, it's kind of a range. Okay, VIX crushing SPX pushing. This is why you wanna wait till about five minutes after you start to see this volatility coming down. You can see that long strangle's getting cheaper, pushing up towards high of day. All right, I'm going 42, 40, 42, 10, going in, strapping on the helmet, not filled yet. Build at 1080 on the 42, 40s, 42, 10s. So, net, I just posted that. So, this is a, I couldn't get it to, I couldn't find anything that's good. I mean, there were some okay tests for Tronch 1 and 3, but this is for Tronch 2, doing 10 wide. So, on that test, I'm showing doing 10 contracts. So, you'd be using anywhere from 6,000 to 7,000 based on those criteria. So, you could certainly, obviously, do a lot less than 10 contracts. I think Wuga said that he's already been trading this a little bit this week. So, really, the amount of capital you use is based on the width of your strikes between the shorts and longs. So, you could do the normal power hour Tronches. They're not going to perform quite as well because you're paying more for the longs, but you're able to use a lot less capital. So, that would be an option as well. Yeah, that's what the back test does. That's what I didn't find any real value in trying to scale out trading naked. So, what I like to do is, I'm not even going to put in a profit target because all of a sudden we have a massive move. I also don't want to cut myself short, but we start moving, then I'll start looking to put in a profit target of 35%. Approaching highs of day, VIX down almost 6%. We have that push up above 42.20 in regards to our time fly, but I don't want to adjust that too quickly. Now we got price coming down. I'm rooting for a crash, Ken. Straight out, straight up crash. I'm so light on positions. This is the time I need a crash and just load up on short vega trades. Yeah, that's when things really get interesting. VIX 50, that's when the pucker factor really comes into play. See what my calendars are doing. TGIF, starting to build a little profit hump, a little bit more towards the middle. Yeah, never mind. That's kind of jumping around about the same. This price keeps coming down. That'll start to print money near the end of the day. That's VIX back about where we started at 1 PM central. As soon as the question started, S&P said, no, let's go down. So we'll see, I got fill that 10, 80, so 14, 60 is my 35% profit target. You guys already got out? Holy moly, I guess I better get on it. Oh yeah, it's way over my profit target. All right, trading naked, I lied, I'm scaling out. Just dropped a buck on that little bounce. Look at that, just dropped two bucks on that little bounce. Wasn't quick enough. Yeah, that's what I get for trying to be cute, for trying to be greedy. That's what I get for trying to be greedy. I just, I wasn't even paying attention to think that that move was gonna hit it. Now I'm gonna be needing another down move or rip your face off, push. That's too bad. It was literally trading at almost 17. I put my order in at 16.30, and that little bounce happened, now it's at 13. Get back down to that bottom up. I've got my order at 14.80 now. Close half. Oh yeah, I bet that short iron condor is doing good. I mean, we're right back to where we started. We're bouncing. Yeah, that was poor management on my part, my friends. Right back to Clist, where I got in. Glad to see a lot of you guys got up. Just 35%, follow your rules, unlike me. I mean, that was an ideal situation too, right? I mean, we just, we pushed up. Right as the presser started, volatility got sucked out, so the strangle got cheaper and cheaper, and then it just dropped like a rock for 10 minutes. Quick 35% in 10 minutes, but the breaking news on the financial juice is, Fed's power, we are not confident policy is sufficiently restrictive. All right, let's go down then. We need to go down in that case. All right, I've got my order at 14.80 to close half, currently trading at 12.45, 12.90. Little five, six point drop would do it. It's amazing how that premium just comes out on those little bounces though. Dark Avenger, are you going YOLO? Are you YOLO in your account today? All right, there's my 14.80, closed half at 14.80. Now we'll see if we can get some run on the remaining piece. All right, I feel better now. Let's set another profit target at 18 to close a couple more. Vicks popping up. There you go, Daedalus. Yep, Ryan P, yeah, I'm still closing that Humpty today. I liked it better when the market was up on that one. Yep, yeah, on these long strangles, yeah, you need to be willing to take Max loss. I don't remember when it was. I mean, it was several meetings ago. I think, I mean, it came down. I mean, the press conference was over. It was kind of sitting in the middle, looking like it was gonna be Max loss and all of a sudden it ripped out. So yeah, this is kind of like Rick. You wanna, there is no stop out. Yeah, we're always no power hour today for me. And we're bouncing back up. So we'll have a 22 point expected move for the remainder of the day. If we're getting ready to do power hour, 10, 20, 30 wide, 35 wide. Been bouncing all day off that 4205-ish level. S&P hanging around right where we started. Some old gyrations up, gyrations down, back up. Back in the valley. Murph dag, I didn't take you for a cat guy. You got a dog there too, it looks like. Oh, the old package deal. It's either me or the cat. Well, those of you who just followed the plan to get all out at 35% are winning. And that, have a good one. If we push back up to highs of day here, I'm gonna add to this. Vix getting crushed now down 5.5%. Nice little bounce. High of day, today was 42.29. Currently at 42.24. Right back in the middle of my valley with my last half. Look at that, Vix crushed down to 17. VXX down 3.5%, leave my VXX verticals on still. All right, I'm going in. This is just a discretionary one. So I'm gonna go in with another long strangle. I'm looking at 42.35, 42.15. As we approach highs of day, getting a big vol contraction. Price popped up. Even though the price of SPX was going up. Ooh, look at it go. Missed my entry. So I'm gonna go ahead and just cancel that one. Vix down 7%, look at that. SPX approaching the expected move to the upside just cracked through new highs of day. Vix crushed through lows of day down to 16.88. Pushing through expected move to the upside. Did not get filled on my ad. That would have been a possibly another quick hit to the upside. Instead, I'm still managing my losing half on this first one. I didn't get filled on my ad. Ooh, getting filled on the Humpty. The Humpty dance. Give me a chance. That was on my Nove 7.8 partial fill. You got filled on three out of 20. Well, my friends, I'm not real happy with how I managed this one. Did not get filled on my ad that would have helped, but that is trading. That's how trading rolls the other time fly. Let's see what's going on there. Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and add an adjustment to that time fly. I was looking at another diagonal. Like we gotta protect the upside a little more than the downside. We got a lot of range to the downside. So I'm looking at the 4260, 4265 diagonal. Ooh, got filled. I just posted that to the butterfly channel. Ryan P, the plan for the Nove 2 Humpty is to squeeze as much out of it as humanly possible. Let's see where it's at. Nove 2, Nove 3. Put that for 320. Meach got out at 345. Now we're definitely gonna beat Meach. That's good. I'm gonna put my order at 250. Let's go to, I'm gonna go 275. Frish, what's the mitigation for the open position? The mitigation is we need price to keep rallying and then we can book a profit. I've got an order to scratch it. If we get up to 4250, that's another 11 points. It's acting strong. Push through the expected move for the day. Yeah, that's a good point, Krish. I'm gonna, I'll just manage the call side at this point. Put my order at 10 bucks on the calls for now. It's not gonna most likely hit, but we get up to 4250-ish. Try to close it. Elliot, are you in the old power hour? I know you can't stay away. It's just not in your blood to stay away. Oh, good. Hey, that's good restraint. Time for Trance 3. You in trading naked, or buddies? Good to know, good to know. Trading naked, are you a Brit too? I need to know who I'm dealing with here. Okay, that's what you were telling me about. SA is in South Africa? Oh, nice. No, this is not looking good for my remaining strangle here. It's about 45 minutes till the bell. Ryan P, you still in your Humpty? Are you got filled? I did not. My order's at 275. We push back up. Should hit it, but it's a big F. Nice and Neil in my TGIF since this push. Wanna close the TGIF, so I don't risk the gap up overnight or play it for the reversal. You guys still holding your TGIFs? It's not to the exit point yet, but Jerome doesn't stop until Jerome says it's time to stop. I think he just, I'm not sure if there's a limit on time that he takes questions or if he just kinda, they have a certain number. I don't know how it works. That's what I'm trying to figure out. We're not to, I'm not to my exit point yet, but if we gap up big, I could lose more. So it's kinda one of those situations where you gotta make a decision. Look at this VIX down to 16.74. S&P up 42.5. NASDAQ up 220. Russell up two. Russell turned green. Barely. Dow up 225. S&P just chopping around its upside expected move to start the day. If my Humpty fills at 280. Still haven't gotten filled on the rest of my November 7, 8 Humpty. Got filled on three out of 20 contracts. He's done. Jerome is done. S&PX approaching hive day. Step to the hive, back to the expected move. Oh no, pushing through hives. Up to 42. All right, what do I want to do with Mr. TGIF? It's getting pretty close to the exit point, I think. Let's see, I got in at, I get into that one at 7.40. I'm gonna go ahead and close my TGIF. Eye is 42.40, 42.44. All right, Krush, have a good one. Tomorrow we will be streaming live in the morning at the open as well as for power hour. I gotta reevaluate day after FOMC tests. Can't recall off the top of my head. Is it anyone? Don't need that recently? I think it's not very good, isn't it? I can't remember. Seems like just, not just last time. I know last time wasn't good, but over, you know, over the last couple of years, like the AM ratio after the day after FOMC, I don't think was very good, but I'll need to double check that tonight. And tomorrow, after power hour, 30 minutes after the market closes, our very own Ryan P will be presenting his zero DTE trade plan that Zoom link is posted in the zero DTE channel. Looking forward to that. VXX coming in nicely. So if we get another vol contraction tomorrow, I'll be closing my VXX. Looks like on that time fly, at least modeling it with no volatility change. Looks like we may be holding that one at least until Monday, unless we need to close it earlier to reduce risk. All right, my friends, I'm gonna jump off here. Dark Avenger, can you let us know your findings about AMIC on post-fed day? Mr. Avenger, I'm kind of concerned that I don't know, do you not have option Omega? I would highly, highly suggest getting it and doing some testing. Yeah, I will kind of post my findings, but I would not be trading zero DTE without it. I've got an order to close my TGIF, it hasn't filled yet. I'm gonna close it today though. Got my current order is at 525, not filling at 510, not filling at five even. So anyway, I'll let it set. I'll post whenever I get filled. All right, everybody have a fantastic night. Chat with you soon.